Could Elam be packaged in a trade up?

[Don Otreply]

On 4/10/2024 at 10:51 PM, MiltonWaddams said:

I had high hopes for Kaiir, but he has not shown a darn thing in this league. He may still be developed, but I doubt he’s shown enough to get much of anything in terms of a move up in the first round.

Iirc he had three interceptions in his rookie year to include one on Mahomes in the end zone, so yes he has shown talent, he certainly isn’t “there” yet, and you are under stating his potential value, jmo. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

On 4/10/2024 at 10:40 PM, Tipster19 said:

Here are the 5 worse secondaries from last year ranked.

 

#28 Colts

#29 Giants

#30 Cardinals

#31 Raiders

#32 Bears

 

if so it would soften the compensation it would take to move up with any of these teams. How Elam’s value is perceived is something I’d be curious to know. 

 

He's a failed prospects, he doesn't hold much value or he would have been dealt by now imo.

[The BLUES Brothers]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

He's a failed prospects, he doesn't hold much value or he would have been dealt by now imo.

You could be right, but many coaches think they have what it takes to make the lightbulb go if in their system.  Have to hope so, as it will improve the asset we receive.

 

 

[Scott7975]

It's possible I suppose.  It depends on if the Bills think they can still make him a fit in our defense and if the kid can improve.  I don't think the kid is done but if the Bills don't value him or don't think they can make him work then I would expect at some point they will try and get something for him.  He was a 1st round pick. I think it's dumb to just let those guys walk.  Get something for him if he can't play here.  Anything is better than nothing.

[Chandler#81]

Trade up? Hell no. The overall consensus is this entire Draft is weak -sans a couple positions. Use picks to trade for quality League starters.

[BigDingus]

We should just make a thread going over all players we'd be willing to use specifically to trade up. On a scale of 1-10, with 1 being "zero desire to trade" & 10 being "cya later!"

 

I'll start:

 

Josh Allen - 1

James Cook  - 5

Khalil Shakir - 4

Curtis Samuel - 1 (just signed)

Mack Hollins - 1 (just signed)

Dalton Kincaid - 1

Dion Dawkins - 3

Connor McGovern - 4

O'Cyrus Torrence - 2

Spencer Brown - 5

Greg Rousseau - 6

DaQuan Jones - 4

Ed Oliver - 1

Von Miller - 9 (in a fantasy scenario where it was possible)

Matt Milano - 1

Terrel Bernard - 2

Dorian Williams - 6

Rasul Douglas - 2

Kaiir Elam - 10

Christian Benford - 6 (always injured)

Taron Johnson - 1

 

Anyone else is either not relevant enough, nobody cares, is a recent signing, or wouldn't be worth a 7th round pick in a trade value anyway.

 

Edited April 15 by BigDingus

[julian]

On 4/15/2024 at 5:58 PM, BigDingus said:

We should just make a thread going over all players we'd be willing to use specifically to trade up. On a scale of 1-10, with 1 being "zero desire to trade" & 10 being "cya later!"

 

I'll start:

 

Josh Allen - 1

James Cook  - 5

Khalil Shakir - 4

Curtis Samuel - 1 (just signed)

Mack Hollins - 1 (just signed)

Dalton Kincaid - 1

Dion Dawkins - 3

Connor McGovern - 4

O'Cyrus Torrence - 2

Spencer Brown - 5

Greg Rousseau - 6

DaQuan Jones - 4

Ed Oliver - 1

Von Miller - 9 (in a fantasy scenario where it was possible)

Matt Milano - 1

Terrel Bernard - 2

Dorian Williams - 6

Rasul Douglas - 2

Kaiir Elam - 10

Christian Benford - 6 (always injured)

Taron Johnson - 1

 

Anyone else is either not relevant enough, nobody cares, is a recent signing, or wouldn't be worth a 7th round pick in a trade value anyway.

 

Pretty reasonable, my only changes would be very minor.. I’m having OCyrus and Bernard at 1, I think I can agree with the rest

[Old Coot]

On 4/11/2024 at 4:55 AM, Ayjent said:

It was all there if you watched the games. He played well against a couple of good WRs and teams fell in love with what he could be instead of what he was.  Terrible tackler, inconsistent in coverage, capable of getting completely lost in scheme.  I thought he was being overvalued a lot in pre draft and was absolutely shocked when Bills took him. I watch all UF games and I wasn’t a fan of his game.  I had hope that maybe it was just Mullen’s terrible staff that was the issue and talked myself into the pick trusting Beane.  He played decent in yr 1 at times, but the chance he develops is slim at this point.  Maybe it was hubris with the Bills staff and FO.  There just isn’t much of a place for him other than outside CB and the Bills don’t trust him there. 

This makes it even more puzzling as to why the Bills would make him a first round draft pick. I admit that I'm a McDermott homie but I'll bet Beane would not have drafted him in the 1st without strong McD support.

[Beck Water]

30 minutes ago, Old Coot said:

This makes it even more puzzling as to why the Bills would make him a first round draft pick. I admit that I'm a McDermott homie but I'll bet Beane would not have drafted him in the 1st without strong McD support.

 

With all respect to Ayjent, here is Kaiir Elam's draft profile:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kaiir-elam/3200454c-4155-0002-a198-92eda6859fa9

He wasn't regarded as a Day 1 starter, but he was regarded as physically talented and projected to go in the 1st.

 

https://gatorswire.usatoday.com/2021/11/17/florida-football-kaiir-elam-espn-draft-mock/

https://www.si.com/college/florida/football/florida-gators-kaiir-elam-mock-draft-br-top-ten

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Kaiir-Elam-DB-Florida

 

Now of course, all these pundits who don't have accountability should be taken with a grain of salt, but the point is, he wasn't regarded as a reach in the 1st and some even predicted him as a top-10 or first-half of the 1st pick.

[Patrick Duffy]

On 4/13/2024 at 1:21 PM, mikemac2001 said:

Elam gets to much hate he is probably our biggest and most athletic DB and hasn’t looked terrible out there.

 

I wouldn’t be giving him up for pennies he’s 22 years old 

 

you always need DBs as well so we would just be drafting a 5th-7th rounder to replace him or signing an old vet no thanks 

 

 

 

I fully agree, I understand it should be a certain level of frustration with him, but some talk like he is worthless. He's had some flashes here and there, also I for one thought that INT he made in the EZ against Steelers in the playoffs was a damn good play.

 

 

 

[Ya Digg?]

29 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

I fully agree, I understand it should be a certain level of frustration with him, but some talk like he is worthless. He's had some flashes here and there, also I for one thought that INT he made in the EZ against Steelers in the playoffs was a damn good play.

 

 

 

YeAh BuT iT WaS aGAiNsT MaSoN RuDoLpH 

[mikemac2001]

42 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

YeAh BuT iT WaS aGAiNsT MaSoN RuDoLpH 

Leave Patrick Duffy alone 

[Ayjent]

8 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

With all respect to Ayjent, here is Kaiir Elam's draft profile:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kaiir-elam/3200454c-4155-0002-a198-92eda6859fa9

He wasn't regarded as a Day 1 starter, but he was regarded as physically talented and projected to go in the 1st.

 

https://gatorswire.usatoday.com/2021/11/17/florida-football-kaiir-elam-espn-draft-mock/

https://www.si.com/college/florida/football/florida-gators-kaiir-elam-mock-draft-br-top-ten

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Kaiir-Elam-DB-Florida

 

Now of course, all these pundits who don't have accountability should be taken with a grain of salt, but the point is, he wasn't regarded as a reach in the 1st and some even predicted him as a top-10 or first-half of the 1st pick.

Oh he was valued that high by a lot of people but as a fan watching game after game and the development or lack thereof of his play, I didnt understand why he was valued where he was.  Especially following the college season he was drafted where he regressed.  The gator D was terrible and Elam was part of the problem, despite flashes of good plays. 

 

For all the work scouts and NFL personnel guys do, there are still things that get overlooked or dismissed.  All teams make bad picks, and its not a science bc you never know how a player will respond and adapt to the pro game and how determined they will be to find success, and whether that hard work will even translate into success. 

 

I was just saying that the play on the college level gave a lot of insight into Elam's prospects of being a star CB in the NFL.  I was vocal about him not being a 1st rounder prior to that draft and the only gator i wanted to see on the Bills was Damien Pierce with a mid round pick bc of his physical running style to take some of those carries off of Josh.

[JerseyBills]

On 4/10/2024 at 10:51 PM, MiltonWaddams said:

I had high hopes for Kaiir, but he has not shown a darn thing in this league. He may still be developed, but I doubt he’s shown enough to get much of anything in terms of a move up in the first round.

Same. He has looked good at times in spot duty but Benford is clearly much better in this scheme.

 

As for trading,  i think a player for player trade is possible.  If we can swap him for a cb on a team that runs man alot, might be able to get a good CB. 

 

His contract is a rookie deal. He has potential.  Never know,  all it takes is 1 gm that likes what he has seen 

[Kirby Jackson]

On 4/10/2024 at 10:40 PM, Tipster19 said:

Here are the 5 worse secondaries from last year ranked.

 

#28 Colts

#29 Giants

#30 Cardinals

#31 Raiders

#32 Bears

 

if so it would soften the compensation it would take to move up with any of these teams. How Elam’s value is perceived is something I’d be curious to know. 

I think that he can be packaged to trade up. I think it’s realistic that if you package him with pick 189 you can get to 188.

[Mr. WEO]

9 hours ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

I fully agree, I understand it should be a certain level of frustration with him, but some talk like he is worthless. He's had some flashes here and there, also I for one thought that INT he made in the EZ against Steelers in the playoffs was a damn good play.

 

 

 

 

Rudolph threw it right to him

[MrEpsYtown]

10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Rudolph threw it right to him

 

Yep. Rudolph the message board hero. 

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Ayjent said:

Oh he was valued that high by a lot of people but as a fan watching game after game and the development or lack thereof of his play, I didnt understand why he was valued where he was.  Especially following the college season he was drafted where he regressed.  The gator D was terrible and Elam was part of the problem, despite flashes of good plays. 

 

For all the work scouts and NFL personnel guys do, there are still things that get overlooked or dismissed.  All teams make bad picks, and its not a science bc you never know how a player will respond and adapt to the pro game and how determined they will be to find success, and whether that hard work will even translate into success. 

 

I was just saying that the play on the college level gave a lot of insight into Elam's prospects of being a star CB in the NFL.  I was vocal about him not being a 1st rounder prior to that draft and the only gator i wanted to see on the Bills was Damien Pierce with a mid round pick bc of his physical running style to take some of those carries off of Josh.

 

I think what you're describing is "the blessing and the curse" of fandom.

 

It's like when some here point out that we watch almost every snap of Josh Allen, but maybe only highlight reels and occasional games of other QBs.  So some here get hyper-critical of mistakes that Josh is making and fail to realize that every QB makes mistakes and has bad plays as well as good or brilliant plays - it's the overall balance.

 

So you're watching game after game of Elam, but perhaps not watching game after game of the other DBs in the draft and the other players in the draft.  But the scouts are watching film of many players and looking for that balance.

 

I'm not trying to argue that you're wrong about Elam, BTW, just that ascribing the pick to "hubris by the Bills staff and FO" is probably not a reasonable take on your part, given the above.  

[Beck Water]

13 hours ago, Old Coot said:

This makes it even more puzzling as to why the Bills would make him a first round draft pick. I admit that I'm a McDermott homie but I'll bet Beane would not have drafted him in the 1st without strong McD support.

 

They drafted Elam in the first round because 1) he was legit regarded as a 1st round prospect 2) it's Beane's 'jam' to value traits you can't "coach up" - athletic skills - over a high level of demonstrated performance in college where the system, talent, and opposition are more variable.  It's one of the ways Beane tries to compensate for having a team that has been winning and therefore drafting near the bottom of each round for the last 5 years.  It's why we got players like Rousseau, who had a high physical ceiling but only played 14 (fourteen!) games in college.  And FWIW Rousseau grades higher than any other DL taken in that draft by PFR's wAV metric (higher than Jaelen Phillips and Kwity Paye who were drafted above him).   

 

Then there's Josh Allen, who we all know about as a high ceiling, sub-basement floor prospect

 

It's great when it works, and of course subject to second-guessing when it doesn't.

 

But the opposite tactic - taking a guy with a high level of demonstrated performance in college, but who may be near his "ceiling" and not able to make the jump to perform at the NFL level against more uniform talent on the opposition - has its pitfalls too.  Witness Boogie Basham.  And then there's the injury wildcard.

 

I do think that Beane needs to adjust his drafting strategy somewhat.  He's been very free with trading 3rd and 4th round picks to move up, partly on the theory that the roster was pretty well set so, it's worth it to go after a guy you really want vs. taking on more players who may not have a legit chance to make the roster.

 

Except now, our roster is not pretty well set so we need those rookies to come in and 'bring it', so I think Beane should assign a higher value to those 4th round picks.

Edited April 17 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Same. He has looked good at times in spot duty but Benford is clearly much better in this scheme.

 

As for trading,  i think a player for player trade is possible.  If we can swap him for a cb on a team that runs man alot, might be able to get a good CB. 

 

His contract is a rookie deal. He has potential.  Never know,  all it takes is 1 gm that likes what he has seen 

 

That's actually not a bad thought - the "Jerry Hughes for Kelvin Sheppard" phenomenon.

 

I think McDermott has been on record multiple times stating that players really develop and take a step in their 3rd season.  So I think the Bills still harbor hopes for Elam developing.  Time will tell.