Who should the Bills draft at 60 in the TSW community mock draft v1.0

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Virgil said:

@GunnerBillI’d be curious to know what your grades are on some of these guys.  
 

Or anyone you think is missing?

 

It looks a decent list (I'd actually missed that Lassiter was still there which means I had 13 Rd 2 grades left when I said I had 12). 

 

I think Christian Haynes, IOL, is the highest ranked guy I have who isn't on your list and TJ Tampa at corner is probably the other one I'm slightly surprised not to see. 

 

At running back Benson and Wright are my RBs 2 and 3 after Brooks who has gone. Corum and Lynch are then 4 and 5 for me. And we know Benson has been in for a visit so he might be a name worth adding if not too late!

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

In the real draft, not all of those WR's will be gone before we pick at 60.  There is a lot of positions that may not see any activity in round 1 or very little that come into play in round 2 like LB, S, and RB to go along with a plethora of the second tier guys on DL, CB, and OL.  This is rich and deep draft at WR, teams are not going to feel the pressure to press for one and more teams will take another position than people think that is going to see more fall off than WR will.  

 

Totally get people are split on where Legette will go.  And I am in the camp that thinks Legette is a 2nd rounder, but probably 2nd half of the 2nd round.  Doesn't mean he makes it to 60, but I do think he would be in a trade up range that isn't too expensive if Beane went another direction in the first and looked to make a move up in the 2nd.  

 

To be clear, I much prefer getting a WR somewhere in the first and not waiting too.  Only discussing since we know its possible we don't get a WR in the first.  

 

I don't think it is completely beyond comprehension that 15 WRs are gone before #60. 13 in the first two rounds is the record. I think that record goes this year. 

 

Whether it is exactly that list is a fairer question. I disagree with you on Legette I think he is gone by #45 or so. But there are 2 or 3 in that list that could go later. But also 2 or 3 who haven't gone here who could go. 

[H2o]

36 minutes ago, mrags said:

I feel like this is a shame. People voting for Jenkins because they’ve heard the name because of his father. 
 

the guys undersized and not even remotely what we need at DT. 

Both he and Fiske are between 295-300lbs, but Fiske is the better option as a rotational 3-tech imo. 

[GunnerBill]

I have voted Lassiter. I actually thought he'd gone. He is the best player left on the board IMO and I think the Bills corner situation is less settled than others. Douglas will be gone after 2024, I am out on Elam ever translating to our scheme. So when a corner is sticking out on the board like Lassiter is here he has to be the pick IMO. 

 

I'd go Fiske over Jenkins as my 2nd choice. Think he is a better fit for what we do. So if this becomes a 2 horse race later he is where I will re-allocate my vote. 

 

I'm lower than most on Kinchens. I think he is a sub par athlete to spend a 2nd round pick on. Bullock from USC is my next best at safety, but Lassiter, Fiske and Jenkins are all above him on my board anyway so I'd not be considering him in this scenario.

Edited April 6 by GunnerBill

[Dr. Who]

It's early for him, but if Beane doesn't have a third, I am thinking about Cole Bishop Utah S. I wanted Bullard, but some traitor GM took him right before us.

[GASabresIUFan]

Fiske is the highest rated player on my board remaining.  I love Lassiter, but I don't think CB is a position of need this early in the draft with Benford and Douglas as the starters and my belief that management still has hopes for Elam.  Drafting Lassiter here would be a statement that Elam was a wasted draft pick.  There are also good corners to be had later in the draft.

 

I also like Trice, Kneeland and Bullock here, but safety would be best in the 3rd if Beane can find us a pick there.

Edited April 6 by GASabresIUFan

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I have voted Lassiter. I actually thought he'd gone. He is the best player left on the board IMO and I think the Bills corner situation is less settled than others. Douglas will be gone after 2024, I am out on Elam ever translating to our scheme. So when a corner is sticking out on the board like Lassiter is here he has to be the pick IMO. 

 

I'd go Fiske over Jenkins as my 2nd choice. Think he is a better fit for what we do. So if this becomes a 2 horse race later he is where I will re-allocate my vote. 

 

I'm lower than most on Kinchens. I think he is a sub par athlete to spend a 2nd round pick on. Bullock from USC is my next best at safety, but Lassiter, Fiske and Jenkins are all above him on my board anyway so I'd not be considering him in this scenario.

Do you think he could/would/should be a starter in 2024? Over who?

 

I think it is really an interesting team building question if you think he wouldn't start in 24. Then it is either slightly better CB who sits in 24 and can possibly start 25-27 or a DT who could play ~40% snaps in 24 and maybe 50-65% in 25-27. I am not sure I have an answer in this case.

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Do you think he could/would/should be a starter in 2024? Over who?

 

I think it is really an interesting team building question if you think he wouldn't start in 24. Then it is either slightly better CB who sits in 24 and can possibly start 25-27 or a DT who could play ~40% snaps in 24 and maybe 50-65% in 25-27. I am not sure I have an answer in this case.

 

I think he would certainly compete to start in 24. I am not as high on Douglas as a lot of people. But even if he doesn't ultimately win a job in 24 he is sufficiently clear by my grading that I would just take him. When you have a talented guy sticking out who plays a premium position you select them and work it out later.

[section122]

Poll has been pared down.  Ill do my next cut down around 830am.

[OldTimer1960]

9 hours ago, TOboy said:

Kinchens was tempting but I voted Fiske. He has the potential to be a long term contributor on the line. 

Kinchens was last among Safeties at the combine with a 4.65 40 and last with a 35” vertical.  In comparison DE Chop Robinson ran 4.49.  That doesn’t necessarily mean Kinchens can’t play, but it is a pretty big concern.

[OldTimer1960]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I have voted Lassiter. I actually thought he'd gone. He is the best player left on the board IMO and I think the Bills corner situation is less settled than others. Douglas will be gone after 2024, I am out on Elam ever translating to our scheme. So when a corner is sticking out on the board like Lassiter is here he has to be the pick IMO. 

 

I'd go Fiske over Jenkins as my 2nd choice. Think he is a better fit for what we do. So if this becomes a 2 horse race later he is where I will re-allocate my vote. 

 

I'm lower than most on Kinchens. I think he is a sub par athlete to spend a 2nd round pick on. Bullock from USC is my next best at safety, but Lassiter, Fiske and Jenkins are all above him on my board anyway so I'd not be considering him in this scenario.

Do you think Lassiter is fast enough to play outside corner or is he mainly a nickel/slot?  Didn’t he run > 4.6 at his pro day?

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Do you think Lassiter is fast enough to play outside corner or is he mainly a nickel/slot?  Didn’t he run > 4.6 at his pro day?

 

Yea he didn't run well. I think he is a zone guy only. He could play outside IMO. But agree he also projects well inside because his agility measurements were excellent. 

[Virgil]

19 minutes ago, section122 said:

Poll has been pared down.  I’lldo my next cut down around 830am.

I’m hoping to get to 100 votes, but Saturdays are weird.  Let’s see where we are at noon and make a judgement call.  The poll opened late and it’s a close one.  No need to rush.  We are on a good pace 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Jenkins is probably the value but I went Kinchens here

[Virgil]

Are any of these DTs a potential Jones replacement?

[OldTimer1960]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea he didn't run well. I think he is a zone guy only. He could play outside IMO. But agree he also projects well inside because his agility measurements were excellent. 

Agree, what I’ve seen of him showed outstanding quickness and he seems quite willing to play the run for his size.  He could be a nice get that late (60).

[section122]

33 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I’m hoping to get to 100 votes, but Saturdays are weird.  Let’s see where we are at noon and make a judgement call.  The poll opened late and it’s a close one.  No need to rush.  We are on a good pace 

Sounds good I removed the people with only a couple of votes and changed the end time.  I'll leave it alone for a while now and see if a group separates.

16 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Are any of these DTs a potential Jones replacement?

Both guys project more as a 3t.  They both weigh in a little under 300 lbs.

[Kirby Jackson]

This is why I love these mock draft threads. People take their roles seriously and understand the team needs of the teams that they are drafting for. It also has a bit of a butterfly effect. This is a nightmare scenario for the Bills IMO.
 

Clearly it’s possible that many WRs go. They just did. Certain dominos dictated that. This is why they can’t wait until 60 for one. That’s not an option. They probably go with one of the DTs here but that’s not impact for this roster, imo. That’s just where the value is with where there’s a long term need. I’d prefer a 1-T if that’s the route but the board didn’t fall that way. 
 

The Bills current needs as I see them:

 

- WR1

 

 

 

 

 

- WR2

 

- Edge

- S

- CB

- DT

 

- power back

- LB

- Edge

- WR/CB with return ability

Edited April 6 by Kirby Jackson

[stinky finger]

7 hours ago, NickelCity said:

Legette, McConkey, Wilson, Pearsall.

 

Outside of the "big three" receivers, these guys keep standing out to me. Legette and Pearsall would be an awesome double dip, but no part of me thinks Beane will draft two receivers back to back.

I’m really warming up to the idea of Ladd Mc at 28 - if we were stay there.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is why I love these mock draft threads. People take their roles seriously and understand the team needs of the teams that they are drafting for. It also has a bit of a butterfly effect. This is a nightmare scenario for the Bills IMO.
 

Clearly it’s possible that many WRs go. They just did. Certain dominos dictated that. This is why they can’t wait until 60 for one. That’s not an option. They probably go with one of the DTs here but that’s not impact for this roster, imo. That’s just where the value is with where there’s a long term need. I’d prefer a 1-T if that’s the route but the board didn’t fall that way. 

 

Yea you are left with two 3Ts who won't get on the field a ton. Or a safety (I have Bullock here not Kichens but even after him there is a run of guys in that early 3rd round territory that could make sense - Hicks, Bishop, Taylor-Demerson). Or an edge who is more a base end than a pass rusher. Or a corner who might not be a starter in 2024 who you are drafting for 2025. Or a guard which I could live with but again question how much of a dial mover it is.

 

I think #60 is a tough spot for the Bills. Much more so than #28.

[OldTimer1960]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea you are left with two 3Ts who won't get on the field a ton. Or a safety (I have Bullock here not Kichens but even after him there is a run of guys in that early 3rd round territory that could make sense - Hicks, Bishop, Taylor-Demerson). Or an edge who is more a base end than a pass rusher. Or a corner who might not be a starter in 2024 who you are drafting for 2025. Or a guard which I could live with but again question how much of a dial mover it is.

 

I think #60 is a tough spot for the Bills. Much more so than #28.

I have no problem with picks being made with an eye towards 2025.  I know that the team will try to compete in 2024 while doing a roster reset, but I think it will be a bit of a down year.  Now they are set up with first and 2 2nds next year to address any remaining holes that they can’t fill this year.

[CNYfan]

BBB will know what to do.

[CNYfan]

11 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Between 28 and 60 - the following WR's were selected:

 

30.) Baltimore: Troy Franklin - Oregon

33.) Carolina: Xavier Worthy - Texas

35.) Arizona: Xavier Legette - South Carolina

36.) Washington: Ladd McConkey - Georgia

43.) Atlanta: Keon Coleman - Florida State

46.) Indianapolis: Ricky Pearsall - Florida

48.) Jacksonville: Roman Wilson - Michigan

53.) Philadelphia: Malachi Corley - Western Kentucky

54.) Cleveland: Jermaine Burton - Alabama

58.) Green Bay: Ja'Lynn Polk - Washington

 

This exercise has proven the idea that you can still get a good one at 60 is a dangerous game to play. Legette isn't sniffing 60. I don't care what the simulators are telling you.

I think our mock may not be an accurate representation of the 2nd round league wide.  My hypothesis is that as a fanbase/board we are overwhelmingly scouting and have the highest interest in the WR group.  This bias is significant beyond what the League in general is prioritizing.  Therefore, the results here are not indicative of what a true 2nd round will look like at the end of April.  

I may be wrong but that is my theory.  

[mannc]

9 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

I think our mock may not be an accurate representation of the 2nd round league wide.  My hypothesis is that as a fanbase/board we are overwhelmingly scouting and have the highest interest in the WR group.  This bias is significant beyond what the League in general is prioritizing.  Therefore, the results here are not indicative of what a true 2nd round will look like at the end of April.  

I may be wrong but that is my theory.  

I don’t know, those all look like solid values, to me.  And not unlike what happened in 2022, when six WRs went top 18 and then eight more between 34-54…

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

I don’t know, those all look like solid values, to me.  And not unlike what happened in 2022, when six WRs went top 18 and then eight more between 34-54…

 

I thought 13 was the record in the for the first 2 rounds, is it 14? 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I thought 13 was the record in the for the first 2 rounds, is it 14? 

I may have miscounted…yep, it was 13

Edited April 6 by mannc

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

I may have miscounted…

 

Yea checked it is 13. That has happened twice. Most recently as you say 2022. When 6 went is Rd 1 and 7 in Rd 2. 

 

If a bookie would offer me a market on it I'd actually put money on more than 13 off the board by the end of the 2nd round.

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea checked it is 13. That has happened twice. Most recently as you say 2022. When 6 went is Rd 1 and 7 in Rd 2. 

 

If a bookie would offer me a market on it I'd actually put money on more than 13 off the board by the end of the 2nd round.

Me too.  It’s a really deep class and teams are seeing how expensive WRs are on the open market now.  It is now the premium position, other than QB.  

[H2o]

This list should be narrowed to the top 3 and everyone recast their votes whose guy is now out.

 

 

P.S. ~ When you vote again, vote for Fiske 

[section122]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

This list should be narrowed to the top 3 and everyone recast their votes whose guy is now out.

 

 

P.S. ~ When you vote again, vote for Fiske 

 

Done poll is down to the top 3.  If you voted for someone no longer listed please vote again.

[Virgil]

I just don’t see the point in either DT.  Oliver has that spot locked up, we would want someone who can replace Jones eventually.  
 

This is a high pick on a backup 

[MrEpsYtown]

12 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I just don’t see the point in either DT.  Oliver has that spot locked up, we would want someone who can replace Jones eventually.  
 

This is a high pick on a backup 

 

 

To me it’s two fold. It’s a case of BPA, and also it’s about getting after the QB. The only guy on the roster with any interior pass rush acumen is Oliver. It is one of the most expensive things to buy on the open market and interior pressure is the best way to beat Mahomes. Jenkins and Fiske potentially give you that. I like Kitchens, but I think you can find a safety later in the draft. I would have gone Walker or one of the DTs here. 

I’ll add some highlights as poll is starting to close:

 

 

 

 

[Virgil]

6 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

To me it’s two fold. It’s a case of BPA, and also it’s about getting after the QB. The only guy on the roster with any interior pass rush acumen is Oliver. It is one of the most expensive things to buy on the open market and interior pressure is the best way to beat Mahomes. Jenkins and Fiske potentially give you that. I like Kitchens, but I think you can find a safety later in the draft. I would have gone Walker or one of the DTs here. 

I’ll add some highlights as poll is starting to close:

 

 

 

 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but wouldn’t McD not put them and Oliver on the field together?   McD likes the big boy next to the rusher.  So this player would back up Oliver, no?

[MrEpsYtown]

10 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but wouldn’t McD not put them and Oliver on the field together?   McD likes the big boy next to the rusher.  So this player would back up Oliver, no?

Yes Jones and Oliver would still start. I think on run downs one of Fiske or Jenkins would be rotational with Ed, who had been around 60-70% of the overall snaps. On passing downs I would put Jenkins or Fiske on the field with Oliver and let them Hunt. So in my world this guy who would take the other 30% of run down snaps and also take all the pass rush snaps that went to guys like Phillips and Settle the last couple of years. My point is that this complimentary interior pass rush person does not exist on the roster at the moment. The value is there at this point in the draft. 

Edited April 6 by MrEpsYtown

[Virgil]

10 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Yes Jones and Oliver would still start. I think on run downs one of Fiske or Jenkins would be rotational with Ed, who had been around 60-70% of the overall snaps. On passing downs I would put Jenkins or Fiske on the field with Oliver and let them Hunt. So in my world this guy who would take the other 30% of run down snaps and also take all the pass rush snaps that went to guys like Phillips and Settle the last couple of years. My point is that this complimentary interior pass rush person does not exist on the roster at the moment. The value is there at this point in the draft. 

That’s fair.   I guess I just don’t believe that type of player should be a round 1-3 pick.  I want this picks to be fully time starters by year two.  
 

While I like our roster, I don’t think we are in a place for a luxury pick, which is what that feels like to me.  Granted; we can’t trade in this draft, but I’d trade back and get my starting G/C or Safety. 

[Mat68]

I went Jenkins.  In the short he term can play behind Oliver at 3 tech in rotation.  I think in a year or 2 in the scheme can play beside Oliver at 1 tech.  I dont see that same versatility in Fiske.  As a 3 tech Fiske has more potential but isnt Ed Oliver.  Moving forward what is the plan at 1 tech.  Jenkins would answer that question and be the 3rd guy in the rotation behind both players.  Fiske imo would be more behind depth behind Oliver with Johnson and Williams behind Jones. 

[MrEpsYtown]

28 minutes ago, Virgil said:

That’s fair.   I guess I just don’t believe that type of player should be a round 1-3 pick.  I want this picks to be fully time starters by year two.  
 

While I like our roster, I don’t think we are in a place for a luxury pick, which is what that feels like to me.  Granted; we can’t trade in this draft, but I’d trade back and get my starting G/C or Safety. 

I typically agree with this, but with the Bills they rotate guys so much that this extra high end DL is immensely important. Do I think they should rotate as much as they do? No. But they do and it’s McDermott’s philosophy and a pass rusher here is the value imo. We should be getting immediate starters early in the draft. 
 

There are zero high end cheap, young, defensive tackles or DL on the roster. I think they could draft more than 1. 

Edited April 6 by MrEpsYtown

[Mat68]

27 minutes ago, Virgil said:

That’s fair.   I guess I just don’t believe that type of player should be a round 1-3 pick.  I want this picks to be fully time starters by year two.  
 

While I like our roster, I don’t think we are in a place for a luxury pick, which is what that feels like to me.  Granted; we can’t trade in this draft, but I’d trade back and get my starting G/C or Safety. 

I see that path with Jenkins.  Will play similar snaps to Jones and Oliver immediately. With Jones at 32 years old he would also be the replacement at 1 tech.  Fiske would mainly be a rotational player for me because he would be behind Oliver.  In a perfect world you sub Fiske in on passing downs but with tempo and modern football easier said than done imo. 

[mrags]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

I just don’t see the point in either DT.  Oliver has that spot locked up, we would want someone who can replace Jones eventually.  
 

This is a high pick on a backup 

100% where I’m at on it. Don’t want to waste a high draft pick on a guy that isn’t playing a majority of snaps. 

[KOKBILLS]

I like Fiske and Jenkins... No question. But Fiske gives me a bigger KW vibe, and I think the Bills are going to love him...