The Bills will be better in 2024 and everyone overreacted

[Trogdor]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Serious contributor doesn't mean they have to start. Buffalo rotates its DL a ton so you're probably going to expect a rookie DE and rookie DT. That's 2. Then it'll be a rookie WR. That's 3. Rookie short yardage RB to round our the trio. That's 4. Maybe a rookie Safety would be 4.

 

So that would be 2 starters and 3 guys who are "depth" but serious contributors.

 

And totally disagree this roster is guaranteed to be worse. With the Samuel signing now our WR corps is already better. And we'll still get one of those early.

 

 

Wow, Gabe got signed by the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

 

You're right... that's a stellar organization with a long history of great decision, making he got signed by. We made a mistake letting him go 

Slot wasn't the problem...

[Trogdor]

10 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Concerned about safeties the most, and maybe center, but if we get a legit future #1 WR in the draft and maybe a DE that can contribute, IF we stay healthy I think we can equal or better last regular season.

Don't forget what a ***** show the league was last year. There were so many starting QBs out that will be back on playoff contenders. Cinci is probably back in the mix with a better Pittsburgh and the same Ravens. Chargers will probably improve based on the coaches record of improvement and KC will still be a monster. God forbid if the Jags get it together and the south had them plus Houston. Last year was probably the best it's ever going to be. 

[without a drought]

18 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I will respect Tua more when he starts consistently beating the Bills…

 

 

 

Then I hope he never gains your respect.

[transplantbillsfan]

18 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

What context do you want?  Davis put up that type of play for 3 of his 4 years.  You think a rookie will immediately replace that?  Shakir still hasn't. He might be, but he hasn't been yet.   You simply tossed out "Shakir is already better"....no context.

 

Career reception % when targeted

 

Gabe: 54.5%

Shakir: 75.4%

 

And if you want an argument about context regarding recency, here are those same stats just for 2023:

 

Gabe: 55.5%

Shakir: 86.7%

 

Gabe's biggest problem from day 1 has been drops. As we saw this past year, it's also a lack of connection with his QB.

 

Happy he's gone.

[transplantbillsfan]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Shakir is already better than Davis is pretty out there as a take. There is less than a year between them in age and about 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in production.

 

Nah... it's an issue of utilization. Shakir wasn't utilized much at all in the first half of the season. Then he was. Everyone knows what Gabe is... it's not like we had to discover he was a _________ player.

 

Who was better over the 2nd half of the season. Not even an argument, right?

18 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

the Davis takes over time, out of necessity (due to the hill his detractors insisted on dying on), grew consistently more "out there".

 

Pretty much all they had at the end was "but, but....catch%!!!"

 

That and the inability to be on the same page with Josh, which I was more disappointed in this season.

 

There are multiple interceptions and missed big plays including TDs from 2023 that were on plays where Josh and Gabe clearly weren't on the same page.

[transplantbillsfan]

18 hours ago, FireChans said:

I mean, you could make the same kind of comments about the Bills organization. We have been a joke for about 20 years straight, and signed our own death warrant trading the Mahomes pick to an in conference team to torment us.

 

Yeah it would be the same pre-McBeane. Not anymore, obviously 

 

18 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

You’re saying maybe a rookie S. Who is playing FS in our system, if not a rookie S? Hamlin? That makes our S group very very very bad.

 

We all felt that way when we brought Jordan Poyer in as our SS.

 

Look at Sean McDermott's history coaching Safety. You don't have to trust him. I do.

 

15 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:

Open your eyes homeboy. Take a look at who else they secured this offseason FA. They got some top players that were available and are noted as having the third strongest FA period along with JAX and the Texans. 

 

Tua is still their QB, right?

15 hours ago, Trogdor said:

Slot wasn't the problem...

 

And??? Samuel plays all over the place.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Bills are probably 7th or 8th best roster in the AFC.

 

But we have the 2nd or 3rd best QB.

[Shaw66]

I agree with Transplant, in part for a different reason.  I think most fans over emphasize player talent and under emphasize coaching.   In terms of team play, the Bills are one of the best coached teams in the league.  It's coaching that puts them in the top five in the league.

 

Debating number 2 or 3 receivers makes little sense.  Those guys are interchangeable and all will give you more or less the same production.  Samuel has different strengths and weaknesses fro. Davis, but their contributions will be about the same.  With Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Cook there's more than enough talent for thw passing game.  It's up to Brady.  

 

In fact, across the whole lineup, most players are interchangeable. The talent in the league is really high, and one backup DT is more or less the same as the next.  You just need your share of playmakers.  Allen alone puts the Bills ahead of most teams when it comes to playmakers, and Diggs and Milano are in that category.  Bernard, Miller, maybe Kincaid.  Maybe the first round pick.  

 

If Beane does a good job, he will get a starter in round 1.  If it's a wideout, even better for the passing game.  If it's an edge, great.  Safety?  Great.  Center? Great.  

 

McDermott doesn't make predictions, but he will be disappointed if the Bills win fewer than 12 games. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

 

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Bills are probably 7th or 8th best roster in the AFC.

 

But we have the 2nd or 3rd best QB.

 

I agree. The Bills are going to be middle of the pack in terms of overall roster talent this year. But they have Josh. They are well coached and they play in a winnable division. 

 

The last few years they have had a really solid all around roster that arguably just missed a difference maker or two. This year they still need a difference maker or two but they also have some holes to fill on the DL and in the secondary.

Edited March 16 by GunnerBill

[Shaw66]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

I agree. The Bills are going to be middle of the pack in terms of overall roster talent this year. But they have Josh. They are well coached and they play in a winnable division. 

 

The last few years they have had a really solid all around roster that arguably just missed a difference maker or two. This year they still need a difference maker or two but they also have some holes to fill on the DL and in the secondary.

I agree, but I think thebholes are fillable.  Safety is my biggest concern. 

 

Difference maker might come out of the draft.  Might not.  

[Mr. WEO]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Career reception % when targeted

 

Gabe: 54.5%

Shakir: 75.4%

 

And if you want an argument about context regarding recency, here are those same stats just for 2023:

 

Gabe: 55.5%

Shakir: 86.7%

 

Gabe's biggest problem from day 1 has been drops. As we saw this past year, it's also a lack of connection with his QB.

 

Happy he's gone.

 

 

lol there you go.

 

Anyway...Davis's dropped 3 balls for a drop rate of 3.7 this season--easily his lowest.  Diggs had 5 for a drop rate of 5%.

 

INT's?  Allen has thrown 47 of them in the past 3 seasons (4 on target to Diggs this year).....but Davis was the  problem?  God love him but Josh had a LOT of communication problems it seemed this year....Davis was on the "receiving" end of a lot of them.

 

 

[Don Otreply]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yeah it would be the same pre-McBeane. Not anymore, obviously 

 

 

We all felt that way when we brought Jordan Poyer in as our SS.

 

Look at Sean McDermott's history coaching Safety. You don't have to trust him. I do.

 

 

Tua is still their QB, right?

 

And??? Samuel plays all over the place.

From the touted “highlights” of Samuel he is primarily short area / slot guy, with career stats that aren’t special, he is a better ball catcher and YAC guy than Davis for certain, but that’s not saying a lot.  We are now one position acquisition away from having a fully formed offense, and that is the Boundary / #2 / take the top off WR, should Beane take the needed step the offense will be very dynamic. Imo our WR room as it is right now is “average with potential” , why not go all the way and take the last step? Jmo of course.

[FireChans]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

We all felt that way when we brought Jordan Poyer in as our SS.

 

Look at Sean McDermott's history coaching Safety. You don't have to trust him. I do.

 

Jordan Poyer was a player in the league for 4 years. That’s the EXACT kind of player I want McD to target. A cheaper FA that they like and think has starter potential.

 

I don’t want a fifth round rookie. McD is a great DB coach but he couldn’t coach up Hamlin from being horrific out there. 

[Mat68]

Put more RPMs into the offense.  I think McDermott can Mcgyver a young defense into a top 15 unit.  The demise and window closing is over stated.  Buffalo was getting old and slow.  They saved a bunch of money and will be injecting youth and athleticism  into the secondary. 

[Toyo321]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Jordan Poyer was a player in the league for 4 years. That’s the EXACT kind of player I want McD to target. A cheaper FA that they like and think has starter potential.

 

I don’t want a fifth round rookie. McD is a great DB coach but he couldn’t coach up Hamlin from being horrific out there. 

Hamlin was just non-talented average player at best, period.  I don't even see him staying on the team this year past training camp.  He will be cut and signed to the practice squad.  Beane will bring in other players prior to training camp at DB as backups, and still be a improvement over Hamlin.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

We all felt that way when we brought Jordan Poyer in as our SS.

 

 

Actually, no we didn't. 

[Nihilarian]

My biggest concern is at the second most important position on the team, which is having a top elite center. The draft looks like the only source available now. 

 

Finding a stud center in the first two rounds is what I'd like to see and even then, there is no certainty that they will find another Creed Humphry, which I'd like to see happen. 

 

Someone who knows how to call and set the offensive line protections. Someone good enough to help the two guards do their jobs, help with the run game up the middle, and most importantly...keep Josh Allen upright while not getting hit. 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

lol there you go.

 

Anyway...Davis's dropped 3 balls for a drop rate of 3.7 this season--easily his lowest.  Diggs had 5 for a drop rate of 5%.

 

INT's?  Allen has thrown 47 of them in the past 3 seasons (4 on target to Diggs this year).....but Davis was the  problem?  God love him but Josh had a LOT of communication problems it seemed this year....Davis was on the "receiving" end of a lot of them.

 

 

 

Interesting. Is Gabe a relative? Some of the miscommunication plays may have been somewhat on Josh, but objectively the VAST majority of plays involving miscommunication in 2023 were between Josh and Gabe. I can't find the advanced stats and I think Joe Marino finds them through a paid PFF subscription, but Josh's passer rating this year was AWFUL when targeting Gabe. It was in the low 70s if I remember correctly from his podcast.

 

Go ahead... pin all of that on Josh... it'll say a lot about you 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

The Bills are making moves. 

 

Ty Johnson back upgrades our RB corps from the beginning of the year considering how late he joined us last year.

 

I think Curtis Samuel brings some serious juice to a meh WR corps along with a lot of creativity. Watched his highlights because I've never really watched him before. In particular I watched the year he was with Joe Brady in Carolina.

 

Truly is Deebo light. Ran multiple times and for multiple TDs out of the backfield. Although I still think/want a WR early in the draft, I think our WR corps has already been upgraded with the subtraction of Gabe, Harty and Sherfield and the addition of Hollins and Samuel.

 

One week into FA... this is pre-draft and with Blackmon currently visiting and a bunch of CAP space cleared, here's very simply the way I'll assess every position. Is it "better" or "worse" overall at this very moment. Better vs worse is NOT only determined by personnel, though. It's also determined by experience & chemistry building (like for Bernard, Cook, Shakir, Kincaid, & Torrence) and health (Josh, Milano & Jones)

 

Feel free to disagree 

 

Coaching- BETTER

 

QB- BETTER

 

RB- BETTER (even if we only had 2, which we won't)

 

TE- BETTER

 

WR- BETTER

 

OL- undecided (I honestly lean towards better, but I know I'd be called a homer. Center and LG are question marks, but I also think the right side of the line will be better)

 

DE- BETTER (Already know I'll get pushback here based on Von. I will disagree. I really think Jonathan and Kline would be fine at #4 & #5

 

DT- WORSE (based on depth)

 

LB- BETTER

 

CB- BETTER

 

SAFETY- WORSE (but honestly... if Blackmon signs and it's Blackmon and Rapp I lean better)

 

PUNTER- same

 

KICKER- BETTER 

 

Special Teams- worse

 

 

So without a draft or a bunch of offseason acquisitions, unless you disagree with those assessments (and I embrace the discourse), I fail to see how this team will be worsenin 2024, barring significant injuries to its most important players.

[FireChans]

42 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

The Bills are making moves. 

 

Ty Johnson back upgrades our RB corps from the beginning of the year considering how late he joined us last year.

 

I think Curtis Samuel brings some serious juice to a meh WR corps along with a lot of creativity. Watched his highlights because I've never really watched him before. In particular I watched the year he was with Joe Brady in Carolina.

 

Truly is Deebo light. Ran multiple times and for multiple TDs out of the backfield. Although I still think/want a WR early in the draft, I think our WR corps has already been upgraded with the subtraction of Gabe, Harty and Sherfield and the addition of Hollins and Samuel.

 

One week into FA... this is pre-draft and with Blackmon currently visiting and a bunch of CAP space cleared, here's very simply the way I'll assess every position. Is it "better" or "worse" overall at this very moment. Better vs worse is NOT only determined by personnel, though. It's also determined by experience & chemistry building (like for Bernard, Cook, Shakir, Kincaid, & Torrence) and health (Josh, Milano & Jones)

 

Feel free to disagree 

 

Coaching- BETTER

 

QB- BETTER

 

RB- BETTER (even if we only had 2, which we won't)

 

TE- BETTER

 

WR- BETTER

 

OL- undecided (I honestly lean towards better, but I know I'd be called a homer. Center and LG are question marks, but I also think the right side of the line will be better)

 

DE- BETTER (Already know I'll get pushback here based on Von. I will disagree. I really think Jonathan and Kline would be fine at #4 & #5

 

DT- WORSE (based on depth)

 

LB- BETTER

 

CB- BETTER

 

SAFETY- WORSE (but honestly... if Blackmon signs and it's Blackmon and Rapp I lean better)

 

PUNTER- same

 

KICKER- BETTER 

 

Special Teams- worse

 

 

So without a draft or a bunch of offseason acquisitions, unless you disagree with those assessments (and I embrace the discourse), I fail to see how this team will be worsenin 2024, barring significant injuries to its most important players.

See, it’s not about being a homer. It’s about completely ignoring the rest of the NFL in the context of your evaluations. It’s just myopia.

 

Is it reasonable to expect some improvement out of Torrence after his rookie season? Absolutely. Makes total sense. He had a very promising rookie season (even though he kinda hit a wall towards the end of the season), he started every game, that’s all wonderful. 
 

But every single team in the NFL has a rookie/young player they expect to be better than last year. Some of them will be. Some, inexplicably, won’t be. And that’s every rookie/young player at every position. 
 

So really, saying the OL will be “better” when we cut a pretty quality starting C, shuffled a good G to a position he never played serious snaps at the NFL level, and shuffled a backup LG on this team to start (who would’ve been starting at LG if he was better than McGovern) is based on…. Torrence getting better. But every team thinks their young DT’s will be better. So what are we talking about? 

 

Is it possible that both McGovern and Edwards reach new heights next year? Sure. Is it more possible that they are who they are? Absolutely.

 

If there’s some compelling reasons outside of “our young players will only get better and build chemistry which is why the Bills will be better” that’s one thing. But when every single team can say the same thing, it’s kinda worthless.

[FireChans]

@transplantbillsfan not to put too fine a point on it, but I’m going to create a character for you. His name is transplantravensfan. Here is his thoughts on the 2024 Ravens.

 

”I think it’s pretty clear that the Ravens are already better in 2024.

 

QB - BETTER (Lamar gets another year with experience in Monken’s system. Safe to say this will only grow and help him perform even better than his MVP year. We also added Josh Johnson as backup who is Lamar Lite.)

 

RB - BETTER (Henry is a star RB and Dobbins was always hurt. Gus was nothing special)

 

WR - BETTER (Getting rid of Odell was addition by subtraction, he was clogging up targets for our younger guys. Zay Flowers had a great rookie year and is primed to be even better this year)

 

OL - BETTER (Retaining all the same young guys who are only gonna keep building chemistry, and again, more experience in the Monken system)

 

DL - BETTER (Locked up Madubuike who is a rising star on the DL and is only going to get better)

 

LB - PUSH OR BETTER (Lost Patrick Queen, but we had already traded for Roquan who was a way better player because Queen wasn’t good enough, but we have Trent Simpson our ILB in waiting who was a third round pick who has a year of experience learning the system, I think he’s gonna rise to the occasion)

 

DB - BETTER OR PUSH (Kyle Hamilton is a rising star and is only going to keep getting better. Rock Ya Sin is still a pending FA and I’m hoping we can bring him back on a cheap deal because he was decent last year, but even if we get a rookie or two, we have Humphrey as a vet to help lead them.)

 

ST - SAME (We have the best kicker in the league and Harbaugh always has a pretty good to great ST unit)

 

So there you have it. I think the Ravens are going to be better pretty much all around next year. We were already in the conference championship, which means next step is the Super Bowl!!!”

 

Just to be clear, I don’t follow the Ravens that closely. It took me 5 minutes and their Spotrac page. Do you see how little analysis that actually is?

[BillsFanForever19]

On 3/13/2024 at 5:38 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

This is an offseason I'm probably going to largely avoid the national media.  I just don't think they have a clue about what the Bills were, what they are, and what they will be.

 

First of all, I love what Beane is doing as we move into the beginning of the new league year right now.  Release the old and expensive players and retain a few valuable pieces.  All of this in order to get our CAP situation in order moving into future season.  Meanwhile, he's accrued 11 total draft picks as ammunition to go get the guys that he wants.  We aren't drafting 11 guys and you can bet we'll be trading around in the draft to end up with between 7-9 players.  Hopefully 5 or 6 of them turn into SERIOUS contributors in 2024.

 

Pretty sure all of these are what Beane is banking on.

 

But honestly, even without the draft and at a snapshot moment in Free Agency when all the Bills have done is re-sign Jones, Epenesa and Lewis and signed Morrow and Hollins, I think the 2024 Buffalo Bills are set up to be a better team than in 2023.

 

Coaching 

First of all, the Bills revamped their coaching staff almost completely.  They got a lot younger, so some fresh perspectives are likely coming into the fold.  On top of that Joe Brady will have an ENTIRE offseason to build and implement his own offense in Buffalo rather than using Dorsey's offense.  Our OC and DC are young and energetic and infectious by reports from all the players and media.  And what's more, McDermott will still be able to help Babbich grow where he needs to while focusing on more aspects of the team than he was able to last year.

 

Special Teams

Bass had the worst year of his career last year, but was a consistent kicker before that.  I don't think he goes anywhere but up... and bringing Haack in to (possibly????) compete for the punting job might be a sign Beane & Co. believe holding is a notable part of the problem.  And maybe it was????  Remember how bad a holder Bojo was and what happened to the Packers kicking game when he went over there as the punter?  If Haack's our punter... he's not a great punter, but hopefully we don't punt a lot  Returners are a dime a dozen to me and we have potential returners in Shakir, Isabella and Hamler already on the roster.  I'm sure we'll bring someone else in, too.

 

Offense

 

OL-First of all, 4 out of 5 pieces on our OL will be back.  And the 1 new piece might end up being a familiar face who played a big role on the team last year.  The Bills clearly believe in McGovern as a Center, so I'll trust their judgment.  If Edwards is the LG next to him, I'm fine with that, too.  He was the starting Guard for the Super Bowl champions a few years ago so he has the talent and experience.  Alec Anderson seems like a dark horse to come in and start at that position, though.  We'll still very likely draft a young IOL, though.  Plenty of other young developmental OL talent to be excited about with the likes of Van Demark and Gourage.  and then we'll have what I believe will be one of the best right sides of an offensive line in the NFL with Torrence and Spencer Brown next year.  And Dawkins gonna be Dawkins.  As far as the IOL moves, I was listening to Daniel Jeremiah on his Move the Sticks podcast yesterday and he was saying how he spoke with Brandon Beane relatively recently about OL and Beane was talking about how it's becoming more and more important to have a more stout, strong IOL nowadays than more of an athletic IOL with what's happening on the defensive side with DTs.  I thought it was interesting and seems like that might be a reason for the Morse release and move for McGovern.

 

QB-See above about Joe Brady.  Otherwise, not much needs to be said here.  Let's just hope that our freak QB stays healthy this year and doesn't get injuries that affects his throwing motion the way he did the last 2 seasons.  If he has to sit for a week or 2, I think we should all feel a little better with Trubisky than Kyle Allen

 

WR-See above about Joe Brady.  I think Diggs was hurt in the 2nd half of the season.  I don't know what game that was where he was thrown to the ground, but I think he was playing hurt for awhile.  Yes, he's getting older, but Diggs is still a #1 WR.  He just needs more talent around him, and with Shakir's development last year, we'll likely see him as a bigger part of the offense.  I really think either Isabella or Hamler makes this roster.  I don't know which one, but one of them is going to be our 4th or 5th WR/gadget guy/ returner.  Mack Hollins feels like a roster bubble guy.  Justin Shorter might be the guy to replace Siran Neal as the gunner and will be sitting in the 5th or 6th WR spot.  So a lot depends on who we draft at WR.  And I think everyone knows we're drafting a WR in round 1 or 2.  Whoever it is, let's hope he's better than Gabe.  Long term I think odds are he will be.

 

TE-A healthy Dawson Knox and a year 2 Dalton Kincaid with an entire offseason to work on his game????  Sign me up!!!

 

RB-We all saw the weapon James Cook can be.  Dude just needs to spend plenty of time on the Jugs machine.  RBs are a dime a dozen... we'll find a couple to fill roles and be just fine.

 

Defense

admittedly D is our biggest worry.  But I think we have less to worry about than feared.

DE-Groot was hampered by a foot injury most of last year, which was obvious.  Von was clearly still recovering from his ACL tear, which was obvious.  I expect both to be better in 2024.  I don't really understand those who think Von just all of the sudden sucks.  He had an ACL tear and tried coming back to play full time less than a year after it happened.  Most athletes say they take a couple years to feel like themselves after an ACL tear.  Just ask Tre White.  Epenesa re-signing is exciting!  If he takes another step in 2025 then our top 3 rotational edge rushers would be an upgrade from last year even with Floyd leaving.  I almost anticipate Lawson coming back, but even if he didn't and Jonathan and Kline were our 4th an 5th DEs, that would still be pretty solid depth.

 

DT- Oliver and Jones is a lethal duo.  Just getting Jones back and healthy for a full season will be an upgrade.  And Jones has been pretty healthy for his career up until this past year.  I don't think he missed a regular season game in the previous 5-7 seasons.  But that's it for DTs other than Ankou, who frankly might make the team and just might be an upgrade on Settle/Ford/Phillips.  But we're going to draft at least one and acquire one... maybe post June 1st as our late offseason Floyd signing.  But it's all about Oliver and Jones, really.  We didn't have Daquan most of last season.  If we do in 2024, that's an upgrade.

 

LB-Everything I said above about Daquan Jones and what the impact would be in getting him back is amplified with all of the same stuff for Milano.  Losing Milano last year was the most devastating thing that happened to our team.  He was absolutely unbelievable to start the year.  His injury isn't the kind of injury that lingers once he rehabs and heals, so I'd expect him to be back to himself.  Top that off with the now-known-commodity of Terrel Bernard and we might have the best starting duo of LBs in the league.  Throw in Dorian Williams, who I believe will be used as an X-factor in a league that is shifting more and more towards 3 LB alignments because of the heavier personnel and the LB Unit will already be better in 2024.

 

CB-Our starting CBs are pretty much all studs.  Taron, Rasul and Benford are all really good to exceptional.  I really do think Elam still has a decent shot with this new coaching staff and potentially new (maybe only slightly) system that will utilize some more man principles.  I wouldn't sleep on him finding a way into a significant or even starting role.  When he does get on the field, he makes plays.  We'll draft a CB or 2.  We always do.  The difference will be that there will be room on the roster for them to actually make the team rather than get poached by other teams the way Alex Austin or Nick McLeod were.  And don't sleep on the 2 guys on our PS.  Ingram might make the team to play a critical backup role.

 

S-Personnel-wise, this is likely the position we have to worry about the most.  But at the same time, Sean McDermott throughout his entire career has always turned other teams' trash into his treasure when it comes to the Safety position.  From the Eagles to the Panthers to the Bills, you can go and track all the safeties that have come through those teams and find quality to elite contributors.  It's actually pretty insane the way he does it.  I expect he does it again.  We'll likely get a guy in FA and draft a guy, but I'm really not gonna be shocked if our starting Safety tandem is Taylor Rapp and Cam Lewis.  Everyone is going to freak out if that happens.  I won't.  McDermott knows the safety position better than anyone.  I don't even think that's hyperbole.  We'll be good.

 

 

Now... am I predicting Super Bowl???? Heck no!!!  Too many variables always come into play and the playoffs are one-and-done so you just never know.  However, the widespread national narrative and narrative among some on this board is that Buffalo's Super Bowl Window is closed and what we're seeing this offseason is the start of a rebuild.

 

Not a rebuild folks,  We're re-tooling.  And the tools we'll have in 2024 will be sharper, shinier and more effective!!!  I can't wait to see who else we add in FA.  I can't wait to see who we draft, but outside of the positions we just need to bring in some bodies to fill them (RB, DT, & S), I'd feel pretty good about where we are even at this moment.  The great thing is that we still have additions coming.

 

It's gonna be a great 2024 season!!!  Go Bills!!!

 

Edited March 19 by BillsFanForever19

[zow2]

It is my personal belief that if Buffalo was to win a Super Bowl in this McDermott, Allen, Beane era....they would have done so already.  They've had some really good teams, possibly the best teams in the league for a few of these seasons if you look at overall metrics.

 

I do not believe they will be better in 2024.  If they win a Super Bowl in 2024 or beyond I think it's because they will luck into it much like some other teams have done over the years.   

[transplantbillsfan]

20 hours ago, FireChans said:

See, it’s not about being a homer. It’s about completely ignoring the rest of the NFL in the context of your evaluations. It’s just myopia.

 

Is it reasonable to expect some improvement out of Torrence after his rookie season? Absolutely. Makes total sense. He had a very promising rookie season (even though he kinda hit a wall towards the end of the season), he started every game, that’s all wonderful. 
 

But every single team in the NFL has a rookie/young player they expect to be better than last year. Some of them will be. Some, inexplicably, won’t be. And that’s every rookie/young player at every position. 
 

So really, saying the OL will be “better” when we cut a pretty quality starting C, shuffled a good G to a position he never played serious snaps at the NFL level, and shuffled a backup LG on this team to start (who would’ve been starting at LG if he was better than McGovern) is based on…. Torrence getting better. But every team thinks their young DT’s will be better. So what are we talking about? 

 

Is it possible that both McGovern and Edwards reach new heights next year? Sure. Is it more possible that they are who they are? Absolutely.

 

If there’s some compelling reasons outside of “our young players will only get better and build chemistry which is why the Bills will be better” that’s one thing. But when every single team can say the same thing, it’s kinda worthless.

 

Hmmm... did I say young players getting better was the only reason? You seem to be latching strictly to that.

 

Getting a healthy Von, Jones and Milano back is huge, as well. I'd say adding 3 now healthy players in 2024, 2 of whom were playing at game-wrecking All-Pro levels early last season and the other who was basically playing at that level up to the end of 2022 is a pretty big upgrade from 2023.

 

And everyone needs to spare me the "Von is done" argument. I know right now @GunnerBill is arguing that the chances that Von Miller isn't totally shot is something like 5%. It's a ridiculous argument. Torn ACLs aren't oil changes. Players constantly say they don't feel back to themselves until their 2nd year back. Yes, there are exceptions, but that’s all they are. Just ask Tre White.

 

Also, the Bills traded for Rasul Douglas halfway through the season and now he'll have a full offseason with the team. Same idea basically goes for Ty Johnson who came in late and didn't get the opportunity to play for awhile.

 

Heck the same theory goes for Joe Brady. We all liked what he did when he had to pivot on a dime into the OC role while using someone else's playbook. Now he gets an entire offseason to examine the weapons he has and figure out how to best utilize him. And Brady isn't an unknown commodity as an Offensive Coordinator like Dorsey was... he has experience and he has success.

 

What I sense you're doing right now is just moving the goalposts. It seems before you were arguing that the Bills roster will be worse, but now you're saying that sure, they might be better, but so will everyone else.

 

Is that your argument?

 

If so... and if you're latching to the "young guys developing" or "another year of chemistry with Josh Allen" then I count 4 rookie contract players (3 starters and 1 rotational guy who I think is about to be used as an X-factor) who are almost guaranteed to be better (Shakir, Torrence, Kincaid, & Bernard... and frankly I'd probably put Elam in this bucket) and 3 others who already played at a really high level in 2023, but I also think are very likely to be better (Bernard, Benford & Brown).

 

Are you sure you can find 7 similar rookie contract players on other teams?

 

And again... that wasn't my only cause for improvement.

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Hmmm... did I say young players getting better was the only reason? You seem to be latching strictly to that.

 

Getting a healthy Von, Jones and Milano back is huge, as well. I'd say adding 3 now healthy players in 2024, 2 of whom were playing at game-wrecking All-Pro levels early last season and the other who was basically playing at that level up to the end of 2022 is a pretty big upgrade from 2023.

 

And everyone needs to spare me the "Von is done" argument. I know right now @GunnerBill is arguing that the chances that Von Miller isn't totally shot is something like 5%. It's a ridiculous argument. Torn ACLs aren't oil changes. Players constantly say they don't feel back to themselves until their 2nd year back. Yes, there are exceptions, but that’s all they are. Just ask Tre White.

 

Also, the Bills traded for Rasul Douglas halfway through the season and now he'll have a full offseason with the team. Same idea basically goes for Ty Johnson who came in late and didn't get the opportunity to play for awhile.

 

Heck the same theory goes for Joe Brady. We all liked what he did when he had to pivot on a dime into the OC role while using someone else's playbook. Now he gets an entire offseason to examine the weapons he has and figure out how to best utilize him. And Brady isn't an unknown commodity as an Offensive Coordinator like Dorsey was... he has experience and he has success.

 

What I sense you're doing right now is just moving the goalposts. It seems before you were arguing that the Bills roster will be worse, but now you're saying that sure, they might be better, but so will everyone else.

 

Is that your argument?

 

If so... and if you're latching to the "young guys developing" or "another year of chemistry with Josh Allen" then I count 4 rookie contract players (3 starters and 1 rotational guy who I think is about to be used as an X-factor) who are almost guaranteed to be better (Shakir, Torrence, Kincaid, & Bernard... and frankly I'd probably put Elam in this bucket) and 3 others who already played at a really high level in 2023, but I also think are very likely to be better (Bernard, Benford & Brown).

 

Are you sure you can find 7 similar rookie contract players on other teams?

 

And again... that wasn't my only cause for improvement.

Every team in the NFL had injured players who they expect to be better in 2024 as well. That’s another whiff.

 

For every player who is young and developing, another player is getting older and slower.

 

And Joe Brady gets another year. Todd Monken gets another year too. He’s not an unknown commodity either.

 

do you really not see the generalizability of all of these arguments? 
 

It’s not just for every team. You could say this EVERY YEAR. Kaiir Elam is developing and is gonna be better in year two. Tre White will be healthy in 2023 two years after his ACL.

Edited March 20 by FireChans

[transplantbillsfan]

20 hours ago, FireChans said:

@transplantbillsfan not to put too fine a point on it, but I’m going to create a character for you. His name is transplantravensfan. Here is his thoughts on the 2024 Ravens.

 

”I think it’s pretty clear that the Ravens are already better in 2024.

 

QB - BETTER (Lamar gets another year with experience in Monken’s system. Safe to say this will only grow and help him perform even better than his MVP year. We also added Josh Johnson as backup who is Lamar Lite.)

 

RB - BETTER (Henry is a star RB and Dobbins was always hurt. Gus was nothing special)

 

WR - BETTER (Getting rid of Odell was addition by subtraction, he was clogging up targets for our younger guys. Zay Flowers had a great rookie year and is primed to be even better this year)

 

OL - BETTER (Retaining all the same young guys who are only gonna keep building chemistry, and again, more experience in the Monken system)

 

DL - BETTER (Locked up Madubuike who is a rising star on the DL and is only going to get better)

 

LB - PUSH OR BETTER (Lost Patrick Queen, but we had already traded for Roquan who was a way better player because Queen wasn’t good enough, but we have Trent Simpson our ILB in waiting who was a third round pick who has a year of experience learning the system, I think he’s gonna rise to the occasion)

 

DB - BETTER OR PUSH (Kyle Hamilton is a rising star and is only going to keep getting better. Rock Ya Sin is still a pending FA and I’m hoping we can bring him back on a cheap deal because he was decent last year, but even if we get a rookie or two, we have Humphrey as a vet to help lead them.)

 

ST - SAME (We have the best kicker in the league and Harbaugh always has a pretty good to great ST unit)

 

So there you have it. I think the Ravens are going to be better pretty much all around next year. We were already in the conference championship, which means next step is the Super Bowl!!!”

 

Just to be clear, I don’t follow the Ravens that closely. It took me 5 minutes and their Spotrac page. Do you see how little analysis that actually is?

 

It weak. And again you just seem to latch onto singular ideas rather than bigger picture stuff.

20 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

 

Was that you I offered the bet to? And you never took it... too bad

13 hours ago, zow2 said:

It is my personal belief that if Buffalo was to win a Super Bowl in this McDermott, Allen, Beane era....they would have done so already.  They've had some really good teams, possibly the best teams in the league for a few of these seasons if you look at overall metrics.

 

I do not believe they will be better in 2024.  If they win a Super Bowl in 2024 or beyond I think it's because they will luck into it much like some other teams have done over the years.   

 

Every Super Bowl winner gets a lot of luck.

[BillsFanForever19]

3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Was that you I offered the bet to? And you never took it... too bad

 

Um... no. I DID take it. 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Every team in the NFL had injured players who they expect to be better in 2024 as well. That’s another whiff.

 

Did every one have 2 All-Pro starters knocked out most of the year and another HOF starter who was still clearly hampered by an injury the year before?

 

Actually... 2 All-Pro starters and one Pro-Bowl level starter. Forgot about Tre White, who was back to form to start the season.

 

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

For every player who is young and developing, another player is getting older and slower.

 

And Joe Brady gets another year. Todd Monken gets another year too. He’s not an unknown commodity either.

 

Monken already had a full offseason to prepare and implement his own offense.

 

These 2 situations aren't the same and you know it. This wreaks of someone just desperately trying to win an argument hoping no one blows down his Straw Men.

 

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

do you really not see the generalizability of all of these arguments? 
 

It’s not just for every team. You could say this EVERY YEAR. Kaiir Elam is developing and is gonna be better in year two. Tre White will be healthy in 2023 two years after his ACL.

 

Again... no. You're comparing apples and oranges, but especially with that Monken comparison you're just painting the orange red and hoping no one takes a bite.

 

Monken was hired as OC 7 months before the 2023 season. Brady became interim OC 2 months into the season.

 

Comparing those 2 and using that as one of your primary arguments is where your house of cards falls apart.

8 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Um... no. I DID take it. 

 

 

 

I see that you named terms for yourself, but never gave me any... what am I supposed to do?

 

EVERYONE, I WAS 100% WRONG ON TRE WHITE ABSOLUTELY BEING ON THE BILLS ROSTER IN 2024!!! 

 

There ya go

[BillsFanForever19]

6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Did every one have 2 All-Pro starters knocked out most of the year and another HOF starter who was still clearly hampered by an injury the year before?

 

Actually... 2 All-Pro starters and one Pro-Bowl level starter. Forgot about Tre White, who was back to form to start the season.

 

 

Monken already had a full offseason to prepare and implement his own offense.

 

These 2 situations aren't the same and you know it. This wreaks of someone just desperately trying to win an argument hoping no one blows down his Straw Men.

 

 

Again... no. You're comparing apples and oranges, but especially with that Monken comparison you're just painting the orange red and hoping no one takes a bite.

 

Monken was hired as OC 7 months before the 2023 season. Brady became interim OC 2 months into the season.

 

Comparing those 2 and using that as one of your primary arguments is where your house of cards falls apart.

 

I see that you named terms for yourself, but never gave me any... what am I supposed to do?

 

EVERYONE, I WAS 100% WRONG ON TRE WHITE ABSOLUTELY BEING ON THE BILLS ROSTER IN 2024!!! 

 

There ya go

 

Yeah, I assumed if you were holding me to that it would be the same on the other hand for you.

 

Debt paid.

[Cray51]

On 3/13/2024 at 5:44 PM, FireChans said:

This is a terrible plan.

Not only has Beane never had a draft where more than 3 guys have “seriously” contributed day one, but to bank on the draft as a “plan” when picking late in rounds and having lots of day 3 picks is just awful when you know it’s a complete crapshoot. 

 

We currently have 1 starting safety on the roster. Why? Because every safety that Beane and co. drafted in their tenure here has sucked. 

What need has there been to bring in safeties other than potential round flyers?  Also, both Hamlin and Johnson who were drafted were the best safeties taken at their pick and on in each draft… unless you consider Epps a great improvement to Johnson, which really is a minor point.

 

Beane have shown CONSISTENT ability to not only draft talent, but to develop useful NFL players.  Add to that their ability to evaluate talent already in the league?  I don’t worry about the safety position

[FireChans]

22 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Did every one have 2 All-Pro starters knocked out most of the year and another HOF starter who was still clearly hampered by an injury the year before?

 

Actually... 2 All-Pro starters and one Pro-Bowl level starter. Forgot about Tre White, who was back to form to start the season.

 

 

Monken already had a full offseason to prepare and implement his own offense.

 

These 2 situations aren't the same and you know it. This wreaks of someone just desperately trying to win an argument hoping no one blows down his Straw Men.

 

 

Again... no. You're comparing apples and oranges, but especially with that Monken comparison you're just painting the orange red and hoping no one takes a bite.

 

Monken was hired as OC 7 months before the 2023 season. Brady became interim OC 2 months into the season.

 

Comparing those 2 and using that as one of your primary arguments is where your house of cards falls apart.

 

I see that you named terms for yourself, but never gave me any... what am I supposed to do?

 

EVERYONE, I WAS 100% WRONG ON TRE WHITE ABSOLUTELY BEING ON THE BILLS ROSTER IN 2024!!! 

 

There ya go

Yeah yeah, you argued that Ken Dorsey was gonna get better in year two, but now arguing Monken isn’t gonna get better in year two. Ooookay bro.

 

you can lead us a horse to water, but you can’t get him to admit that the Tyrod Taylor saga should have made him look his Bills opinions in the mirror.

[transplantbillsfan]

20 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yeah yeah, you argued that Ken Dorsey was gonna get better in year two, but now arguing Monken isn’t gonna get better in year two. Ooookay bro.

 

That was easy... thanks for proving my point

 

20 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

you can lead us a horse to water, but you can’t get him to admit that the Tyrod Taylor saga should have made him look his Bills opinions in the mirror.

 

We all get things wrong. It's the human condition.

[FireChans]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

That was easy... thanks for proving my point

 

 

We all get things wrong. It's the human condition.

Will the Bills win more games in 2024 than 2023?

[Success]

14 hours ago, FireChans said:

Every team in the NFL had injured players who they expect to be better in 2024 as well. That’s another whiff.

 

For every player who is young and developing, another player is getting older and slower.

 

And Joe Brady gets another year. Todd Monken gets another year too. He’s not an unknown commodity either.

 

do you really not see the generalizability of all of these arguments? 
 

It’s not just for every team. You could say this EVERY YEAR. Kaiir Elam is developing and is gonna be better in year two. Tre White will be healthy in 2023 two years after his ACL.

 

It's okay for fans to hope.  I'm not sure why that bothers other fans.

 

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, Success said:

 

It's okay for fans to hope.  I'm not sure why that bothers other fans.

 

I hope the Bills are the best team ever. I hope every single player who puts on the jersey next seasons stays healthy, and plays like the best player in the world.

 

Why would I post that and invite arguments to the contrary? It’s obviously indefensible, it’s just a wish.  

[Success]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I hope the Bills are the best team ever. I hope every single player who puts on the jersey next seasons stays healthy, and plays like the best player in the world.

 

Why would I post that and invite arguments to the contrary? It’s obviously indefensible, it’s just a wish.  

 

I don't think the idea that the Bills will be better in '24 is "indefensible."  In fact, I agree w/ it.

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Success said:

 

I don't think the idea that the Bills will be better in '24 is "indefensible."  In fact, I agree w/ it.

 

Well then that’s not just hope, is it?

[Success]

Just now, FireChans said:

Well then that’s not just hope, is it?

 

True.  Though ultimately, there is no way to know until they get on the field.  Maybe a better word is "aspirational."

 

But it's not deluded, or pure homer.  We're likely to be a top 5 team in 2024, one of the top 3 seeds in the AFC, and better than we were in '23.

 

[FireChans]

If the Bills were the 3 seed in the AFC would you still say they were better than the 2023 team that was the 2 seed?

3 minutes ago, Success said:

 

True.  Though ultimately, there is no way to know until they get on the field.  Maybe a better word is "aspirational."

 

But it's not deluded, or pure homer.  We're likely to be a top 5 team in 2024, one of the top 3 seeds in the AFC, and better than we were in '23.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

I think it's quite possible this team could be better in 2024.  I expect the offense to be better and I think with Rasul anchoring the secondary, Milano and Bernard healthy, Jones and AJE back that the defense with some of its other new components will still be pretty good this year.  

 

My biggest concern defensively at this moment in time is depth, but plenty of time still to shore that up with some bargains in FA and also the draft.