Was the Bills/Chiefs Game decided in Week 18?

[Low Positive]

4 minutes ago, boyst said:

fisher > mcdermott ?

If the contest is shotgunning a Busch Light while smoking a Parlament, sure. 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Tough to blame injuries when our healthiest unit on d (the dline) failed to touch Mahomes.

 

The thigh bone connected to the knee bone

 

It's hard to get to Mahomes if he's got easy shots available.

[The Jokeman]

8 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I dont think the Bills had an outrageous amount of injuries.   All teams had issues at some point.  Luck plays into it in terms of timing or stacking up at one position but that is not atypical of something someone has to deal with on the way to a Super Bowl.  They could have won that game but failed to execute in some key situations.

It's not just the amount it's the quality of player we lost, Milano is arguable a top 5 LB in the league, White when 100% is a top end CB. Bernard was having as good as a season as any LB this season. Someone compared his stats to Fred Warner earlier. Toss in we missed Benford and Rasul was less than 100%. So we were down to our 4th/5th outside CB and our two best LBs. Where'd we struggle? Stopping the run which

[margolbe]

It shows how important it is to be the number one seed, or have nothing to play for in the last week where you can rest players.  We were in unrelenting mode since we were 6 -6 and eventually the team wore down.

Edited January 24 by margolbe

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

You nailed it 👍…this team can’t be losing crap games next season

They do it every season so don’t hold your breath. 

[BananaB]

What about the other two times they eliminated us in the playoffs and our D gave up 36 and 42 points? Can’t blame injuries on those games. 

[Doc Brown]

The importance of the one seed became even more pronounced when they added that seventh team to the playoffs.  We would've gotten a bye in three of the last four seasons if they didn't add a team which would've been huge.  

 

We're going to need some injury luck next year to get the one seed.  It will be an uphill climb and we pry won't make it if we don't.  No more London games.

Edited January 24 by Doc Brown

[NewEra]

Yup.

 

and now KC lost Thuney, who shut down Oliver completely and possibly more

 

 

[BillsfaninCT]

No it wasn't decided then, it was decided after 418 mins out of a possible 420 that the plan to control the clock using ball control and taking what the defense would give you should be changed.  Mathematically, 99.52% of the possible time had expired, 6 games had been won and 96.7% of the 7th game was ball control including the drive they were on.  Even if all of that previous time wasn't dedicated to taking what they give arguably and easily the majority of it did.  So with a fraction of the time across 7 games remaining, Josh Allen doesn't pick 3 open receivers that the defense is giving?  I don't believe that.  Watch Kurt Warner's review.

 

You cannot make me believe that McDermott, Brady, and Josh all had amnesia in that moment at the 2 minute warning.  Also McDermott wasn't even mad about it which means Josh did what he was suppose to do.

 

Somebody told McDermott to lose the game, and he told Brady, and Brady told Josh.

nothing else makes a lick of sense in the context of 420mins of ball control football (more or less)

a whole bunch of parlays got blown up on Josh and Diggs... if Josh threw to Diggs big parlay payout for that 5yds for him and Josh.  Not to mention swifty's ratings were at major risk.

 

call it whatever you want to call it but at least it doesn't make sense to do what Josh did.

 

How many times have we heard McDermott say to take what they give you?  but with 2 mins to go, the ability to run the clock out and save your defense it's perfectly fine to overlook Diggs?  b u l l     s h i t

Edited January 24 by BillsfaninCT

[Gregg]

3 minutes ago, BillsfaninCT said:

No it wasn't decided then, it was decided after 418 mins out of a possible 420 that the plan to control the clock using ball control and taking what the defense would give you should be changed.  Mathematically, 99.52% of the possible time had expired, 6 games had been won and 96.7% of the 7th game was ball control including the drive they were on.  Even if all of that previous time wasn't dedicated to taking what they give arguably and easily the majority of it did.  So with a fraction of the time across 7 games remaining, Josh Allen doesn't pick 3 open receivers that the defense is giving?  I don't believe that.  Watch Kurt Warner's review.

 

You cannot make me believe that McDermott, Brady, and Josh all had amnesia in that moment at the 2 minute warning.  Also McDermott wasn't even mad about it which means Josh did what he was suppose to do.

 

Somebody told McDermott to lose the game, and he told Brady, and Brady told Josh.

nothing else makes a lick of sense in the context of 420mins of ball control football (more or less)

a whole bunch of parlays got blown up on Josh and Diggs... if Josh threw to Diggs big parlay payout for that 5yds for him and Josh.  Not to mention swifty's ratings were at major risk.

 

call it whatever you want to call it but at least it doesn't make sense to do what Josh did.

 

You don't really believe this do you. This is the NFL not the WWE.

[BillsfaninCT]

1 minute ago, Gregg said:

 

You don't really believe this do you. This is the NFL not the WWE.

What I believe is the percentages that I gave and it is no surprise they lost the game by changing the game plan.  somebody decided to take kill shots instead of run the clock when all the games prior the last bills drive, when possible, was 4 min offense.  of all the teams to change out the 4 min offense with 2 mins to go, the chiefs is literally the last team you'd do that against.

 

explain it.

[Steptide]

Imo the bills lost not because of injuries or lack of rest, but a crappy game plan. The defense on both teams was a wash honestly. Our d line did nothing, but theirs didn't do anything either. McDermott or whoever over thought the game plan and as close as the game was, we lost. Instead of just playing loose and throwing to score, they tried to eat clock and keep it close. It was stupid. Just play your game. 

[Gregg]

Just now, BillsfaninCT said:

What I believe is the percentages that I gave and it is no surprise they lost the game by changing the game plan.  somebody decided to take kill shots instead of run the clock when all the games prior the last bills drive, when possible, was 4 min offense.  of all the teams to change out the 4 min offense with 2 mins to go, the chiefs is literally the last team you'd do that against.

 

explain it.

 

I am talking about when you said someone told McDermott to lose the game and he told Brady who told Allen.  I don't know why the Bills didn't try to milk the clock. They should have. Even if the FG was good. I have no doubt Mahomes drives them down the field for the game winning score. But the Bills did not intentionally lose the game.

[BillsfaninCT]

Nobody is explaining what motivation there is to change from a clock eating 4min offense with the highest win percentage to one of the lowest win percentage approaches they took.  every explanation to "get the touchdown and let your defense make a stop" is less than and goes directly against the game plan and the previous 6 games.

 

make it make sense.

 

it's as if the previous 418 mins, 6 wins and game plans including the game plan for this game were forgotten.  that is 99% of the possible time.

 

you're telling me with less than 1% to go, they all forgot or made a mistake, and I don't believe you

 

Edited January 24 by BillsfaninCT

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, BillsfaninCT said:

What I believe is the percentages that I gave and it is no surprise they lost the game by changing the game plan.  somebody decided to take kill shots instead of run the clock when all the games prior the last bills drive, when possible, was 4 min offense.  of all the teams to change out the 4 min offense with 2 mins to go, the chiefs is literally the last team you'd do that against.

 

explain it.

 

[Mr. WEO]

i've read over and over here that the Bills have the best training staff and facilities in the league that would attract FAs etc.. .....how is McD now scratching his head looking for the cause of these injuries?

[FilthyBeast]

4 hours ago, Governor said:

Every time we play KC I realize just how much larger and taller they are on defense. They have definitely changed the makeup of their team over the last 5-7 years. They used to be the defense that got abused. Not anymore.

 

In some ways you could argue they were the Bills up until 2018, especially since that's the year they fired Bob Sutten. Enter Spagnulo and they immediately get to and win their first superbowl the next season.

 

It's just one of many reasons why McDivisional is not the answer here....you can't win big games with such smallish players on defense, it's also why the same guys are hurt over and over.

 

Give me a tradional 4-3 or 3-4 any day over this tired scheme that is DB/tweaner LB heavy. It's simply not working.

[Man with No Name]

7 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

The Chiefs won because they have the better coach, QB and defense which was validated yet again in this latest matchup. They are also the defending world champions playing in their 6 straight AFCCG. Why people choose to over analyze the situation is a frivolous waste of time

 

Also I think the injury excuse is tiresome at this point as well especially when it's already been pointed out that when a healthy Milano, White, etc has played in these games the result has been exactly the same. The issue that does need to be addressed though is this regimes persistent drafting of undersized, injury prone players (mostly on defense which is no coincidence). I think you also have to clean house with the training/strength and conditioning staff at this point as well.

nah. if we had the better defense, allen out plays Mahomes, and then it is just as easy to say we are better in all 3 of those areas, just because ONE of our phases was better. 

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Tough to blame injuries when our healthiest unit on d (the dline) failed to touch Mahomes.

I wouldn't exactly say the Dline was our healthiest unit.  Our $140M pass rusher played at 70% all season.  DQ had just returned from his almost season ending injury.  Players like Settle, Joseph, Ford, Phillips and Shaq are so mediocre they might as well be injured.  

[<bills4life>]

7 hours ago, SCBills said:

We can all lament on how we just didn't get the breaks.  Why did the injuries have to hit so significantly right before we played Kansas City?  Why don't the bounces go our way.. Why is KC always seem to be luckier than us when it comes to staying healthy?  McDermott even addressed this as something we need to look at re: the heavy injury situation we've faced lately. 

 

Well...

 

It's a one game season in the Playoffs, but what you do all season has a massive effect on that one game season.

 

KC Road to the Super Bowl last year consisted of a BYE Week and then Home against a weak Divisional opponent in Jax. 

 

BAL Road to the AFC Championship Game this year consisted of a BYE week and then Home against a weak Divisional opponent in Houston.

 

That matters.  

 

And what else also matters?....

 

The fact that we had to go all out for the last 1/3rd of the season to even make the playoffs.  The fact we had to go all out to win the Division in Week 18.  The fact we had to play a grueling second half against Pittsburgh in the WC Round when we were about to run away with the game before halftime. 

 

It all adds up..

 

KC didn't have a bye week, but they rested guys Week 18 and made easy work of the Dolphins.  

 

We can all pretend that it's just about getting into the playoffs and letting the chips fall where they may..  but the 1 seed is an absurdly huge advantage in the new format and if you can't get that.. rest down the stretch becomes even more important.  

 

We lost a few guys in that Miami game.  And then we lost some guys in the Steelers game.  We know guys were playing through injury, pushing themselves down the stretch.  Bernard hurt his ankle against the Chargers, and then had to push through it.. maybe if he doesn't have to push so hard.. who knows. 

 

But what I do know, is that now.. more than ever... it matters what you do in the regular season.   And I can't help but believe, with the difference between winning and losing in these Chiefs games being so small.. that Week 18 mattered more than we could have ever known. 

 

The 3 best teams in the AFC were Baltimore, KC and Buffalo.  Baltimore had a two week bye.  KC had a pseudo one week bye.  Bills had to push all their chips in down the stretch.

 

It takes luck.  Sometimes you have to make your own luck.  

And this is exactly what happens when you are forced to play playoff football after going 6-6. Admirable that they came back, however not surprising they lost in the divisional round. But hey let’s run it back again with McDermott. Maybe things will be different.  🤦‍♂️ 

[Boatdrinks]

Nope. All this super analysis is ridiculous too. Wasn’t the issue last year supposedly being too aggressive vs the Bengals ? Now it was being too conservative… lol. This game was decided ( not surprisingly given these two teams) on the final Bills possession. It was really quite obvious if you paid attention.  I’m not sure what Brady was thinking here , with a predictable Cook run up the middle for one yard ( a wasted play) Then two shots to the end zone , which would have left plenty of time for KC to win the game with little to no time remaining. Even if Bass connected for the tie, does anyone doubt defeat was just around the corner?  They needed to continue what they had done offensively all night long. Chew up clock and get first downs, keeping Mahomes on the bench. The Bills D couldn’t stop KC - as their 9+ yds per play allowed showed. The Bills downfield attempts only resulted in drops of quality passes by Allen. A more aggressive scheme would surely have resulted in a Chiefs blowout of Buffalo, as the defense was a shell of itself. The game plan was just right, until those final plays of the last possession .They almost pulled it off if not for these few plays. The injuries had a huge impact, but in the end the Bills had a perfect scenario as time ran down. They simply botched it -completely on their own. 

[Rico]

7 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I’m skeptical of giving John Harbaugh too much credit though.  I didn’t realize it, but I saw he hasn’t been to an AFCCG since 2012?  Imagine the critics if McD fell short that many years in a row?  

Before this season, many Ravens fans here in Baltimore have wanted him gone for years. "Thanks but been here too long, need some new blood."