Some impressive defensive stats to chew on today

[Rubes]

From the Buffalo News:

Quote

 

Over the past eight games, since the Week 5 loss to Jacksonville, Buffalo ranks an impressive fourth in run defense over the first three quarters based on the advanced metric “Expected Points Added,” which measures how a team performs compared to its expectation on a play-by-play basis.

 

However, in the fourth quarter against the run the past eight games, the Bills’ defense stands 32nd in EPA per play (and scrambles aren’t counted as run plays).

 

The Bills’ defense ranks 10th overall in EPA/play in the first three quarters since the Jacksonville loss. But it is 32nd overall in the fourth quarter and overtime the past eight games.

 

Part of the problem may be attributed to tiring out. The Bills’ defense was on the field way too much against Jacksonville, Cincinnati and Denver. The offense didn’t pick up its end of the bargain in those games.

 

But that wasn’t to blame against the Giants, Patriots and especially in Sunday’s loss to Philadelphia. The Bills controlled the ball 14 minutes more than the Eagles in the 37-34 overtime defeat.

 

 

I mean, you don't pay a defensive-minded coach to excel at defense for three quarters and then ***** the bed at the end when it counts.

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

"Quarters?!  I thought we played 3 periods, like hockey!"

Edited November 29, 2023 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[Bob Jones]

Put another way, since the London game, the defense (and their coaches) have been choking, BIG TIME, when the game is on the line. 

 

Sadly, we are all very familiar with this fact.

[transient]

3 minutes ago, Rubes said:

From the Buffalo News:

 

I mean, you don't pay a defensive-minded coach to excel at defense for three quarters and then ***** the bed at the end when it counts.

 

You’re correct, I don’t… Terry Pegula does. 

[Bruffalo]

My output goes down significantly in the last 25% of my workday too, so I can empathize.  I don't have millions of folks watching me live though.  

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 minute ago, Bruffalo said:

My output goes down significantly in the last 25% of my workday too, so I can empathize.  I don't have millions of folks watching me live though.  

Then don't take phone calls that final 25% of the day? 🤔

[MJS]

Well, it's officially a problem. McDermott needs to find a way to get his unit to perform late in games. He is the defensive coordinator. It is up to him to figure out. Even with all the injuries, the defense should at least be average.

 

The team as a whole lacks discipline and fundamentals, which are things McDermott supposedly preaches. Somehow that message is not getting across.

[LeGOATski]

Maybe the team needs a better motivator? This isn't a stamina thing. These guys are in great shape. It looks more like a mental thing.

[Dillenger4]

To me and every other person who understands football - it is the fact that we are fielding second string players as we are decimated by injury to most positions on the Defense. Therefore, it is easier for our competition to make adjustments which clearly shows during our past 8 games. Not hard to figure out. Our players can't seem to adjust and execute. Bad tackling, poor execution will do this to a team.

If we had Daquan Jones, Matt Milano, Tre White and Von (Healthy) this would be a much different conversation! We have even had Dane and Benford out for some games too. Poyer too. Unreal.

But yeah... let's fire the coach and GM. 

[Bruffalo]

32 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Then don't take phone calls that final 25% of the day? 🤔

I try my best not to.  Unfortunately a big part of my job is putting out (metaphorical) fires all day. 

[Draconator]

5 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

But yeah... let's fire the coach and GM. 

We really should. At least McDermott.  It's coaching that leads to these meltdowns. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

To me and every other person who understands football - it is the fact that we are fielding second string players as we are decimated by injury to most positions on the Defense. Therefore, it is easier for our competition to make adjustments which clearly shows during our past 8 games. Not hard to figure out. Our players can't seem to adjust and execute. Bad tackling, poor execution will do this to a team.

If we had Daquan Jones, Matt Milano, Tre White and Von (Healthy) this would be a much different conversation! We have even had Dane and Benford out for some games too. Poyer too. Unreal.

But yeah... let's fire the coach and GM. 

Largely I agree with your point. Here's the problem I have, however. 3 out of those 4 names have been replaced very well. I would argue the main reason Floyd was brought in was to cover for Von while he gets back to normal.

 

Jones->Joseph

White->Douglas

Von->Floyd

 

Milano missing is a key, granted. However teams lose key players and still win games. When you pay a HC that excelled in defensive prowess you should be able to rely on him to plan and scheme around an Injury or a set of injuries. McDermott has failed to do this. And as you pointed out, teams have adjusted. McDermott has not. 

 

 

 

 

[julian]

53 minutes ago, Rubes said:

From the Buffalo News:

 

I mean, you don't pay a defensive-minded coach to excel at defense for three quarters and then ***** the bed at the end when it counts.

 

This fool plays his defense straight up for 3 QTRs and then in crunch time he gets scared and leans heavily into pass defense sacrificing the run.

 

 Is there any other logical explanation ? I don’t buy the whole “they got wore down theory” and I’m not even positive that the time of possession would support it.

[BillsFan130]

3 minutes ago, julian said:

This fool plays his defense straight up for 3 QTRs and then in crunch time he gets scared and leans heavily into pass defense sacrificing the run.

 

 Is there any other logical explanation ? I don’t buy the whole “they got wore down theory” and I’m not even positive that the time of possession would support it.

Joe Marino said against the eagles that the bills basically ran the same defence all game long.

The eagles adjusted in the 3rd quarter, and McDermott had no counter off the eagles adjustment 

 

(again according to Joe Marino)

[4BillsintheBurgh]

57 minutes ago, Rubes said:

From the Buffalo News:

 

I mean, you don't pay a defensive-minded coach to excel at defense for three quarters and then ***** the bed at the end when it counts.

 

If I'm Pegula/Beane I'm asking wtf I'm paying 8-10 dlinemen if we're not going to perform in the 4th quarter? That's the point of having all the depth at DL, is to perform well at the end of the game. Seems like there is an issue there. My thought is the players are used to getting X amount of snaps and they go over that, they're going to be tired. Doesn't matter if X is 20 or 40, once it's over that, they're tired. For me that is something that needs to be improved upon, if you have that many guys you have to make sure you're practicing them at a high enough level because they need to be able to go beyond their normal conditioning at times. It's tough if you're trying to dole out first team reps in practice and half of them are standing around, but that's what we have.

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, julian said:

This fool plays his defense straight up for 3 QTRs and then in crunch time he gets scared and leans heavily into pass defense sacrificing the run.

 

 Is there any other logical explanation ? I don’t buy the whole “they got wore down theory” and I’m not even positive that the time of possession would support it.

I don’t know.  McDermott’s defenses have consistently been undersized at almost every position except 1 Tech DT. Asking taron johnson and 220 lb linebackers to hold up all game against O-Linemen ain’t a championship formula.  Not to mention Epenesa sized Defensive ends who easily get moved.  

[julian]

9 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Joe Marino said against the eagles that the bills basically ran the same defence all game long.

The eagles adjusted in the 3rd quarter, and McDermott had no counter off the eagles adjustment 

 

(again according to Joe Marino)

Wow.. I’m surprised, so instead of being scared he’s just not that good at in game adjustments.

6 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I don’t know.  McDermott’s defenses have consistently been undersized at almost every position except 1 Tech DT. Asking taron johnson and 220 lb linebackers to hold up all game against O-Linemen ain’t a championship formula.  Not to mention Epenesa sized Defensive ends who easily get moved.  

Yeah I can see that, it’s hard figuring out exactly how and why McDermott is failing in these big moments, he seems to have some legit excuses mixed in with some unexplainable in game decisions.

 

 I just want a new guy at the helm next year.

[Gugny]

40 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

To me and every other person who understands football - it is the fact that we are fielding second string players as we are decimated by injury to most positions on the Defense. Therefore, it is easier for our competition to make adjustments which clearly shows during our past 8 games. Not hard to figure out. Our players can't seem to adjust and execute. Bad tackling, poor execution will do this to a team.

If we had Daquan Jones, Matt Milano, Tre White and Von (Healthy) this would be a much different conversation! We have even had Dane and Benford out for some games too. Poyer too. Unreal.

But yeah... let's fire the coach and GM. 

So same players who are able to execute for 3/4 of the game somehow lose that ability when it comes time protect a lead late in the game?

 

That doesn’t compute to me. 

[colin]

we keep losing the same way, being easy and predictable on d late in games.  i say you fired your OC for much less than that, gotta fire the DC now.

[Dillenger4]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Largely I agree with your point. Here's the problem I have, however. 3 out of those 4 names have been replaced very well. I would argue the main reason Floyd was brought in was to cover for Von while he gets back to normal.

 

Jones->Joseph

White->Douglas

Von->Floyd

 

Milano missing is a key, granted. However teams lose key players and still win games. When you pay a HC that excelled in defensive prowess you should be able to rely on him to plan and scheme around an Injury or a set of injuries. McDermott has failed to do this. And as you pointed out, teams have adjusted. McDermott has not. 

 

 

 

 

All fair points. But I still think McD stays as coach for next season. Pegula will not fire him... right or wrong.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Well, it's officially a problem. McDermott needs to find a way to get his unit to perform late in games. He is the defensive coordinator. It is up to him to figure out. Even with all the injuries, the defense should at least be average.

 

The team as a whole lacks discipline and fundamentals, which are things McDermott supposedly preaches. Somehow that message is not getting across.

 

It's been a problem for years, people have just been blind to it because the QB was bailing him out. He hasn't put in the slightest bit of work to improve himself as a Head Coach for over 7 years, no reason to think it's immediately going to happen for year 8. It's time to cut the cord, it's long overdue. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by HomeskillitMoorman

[Dillenger4]

37 minutes ago, Gugny said:

So same players who are able to execute for 3/4 of the game somehow lose that ability when it comes time protect a lead late in the game?

 

That doesn’t compute to me. 

They don't lose ability, they don't adjust as quickly as they are second string talent. Our D is good right now but not great. Talent just isn't there man....

[BuffaloBillyG]

10 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

All fair points. But I still think McD stays as coach for next season. Pegula will not fire him... right or wrong.

And I agree, only 2 ways I see him gone are either a major locker room mutiny or he does what Leslie Frazier allegedly did and needs some "time away". And I don't think either of those happen.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Dillenger4 said:

To me and every other person who understands football - it is the fact that we are fielding second string players as we are decimated by injury to most positions on the Defense. Therefore, it is easier for our competition to make adjustments which clearly shows during our past 8 games. Not hard to figure out. Our players can't seem to adjust and execute. Bad tackling, poor execution will do this to a team.

If we had Daquan Jones, Matt Milano, Tre White and Von (Healthy) this would be a much different conversation! We have even had Dane and Benford out for some games too. Poyer too. Unreal.

But yeah... let's fire the coach and GM. 

This may be a valid excuse against the Jags & Eagles but it is not a valid excuse against the Bronco's & Pats and but for the luck of the Irish against the Giants.