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Dalton Kincaid: Beane's best pick since Allen?


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9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

He would need nearly a 50%  jump in yards per reception in the final 6 games........basically producing like Travis Kelce in 2020-2022........to get to 80 for 800.    

 

That's going to be a tall order with the schedule in front of them.

 

I loved the draft pick and he's been excellent for a rookie but at a paltry 8.5 yards per reception the training wheels haven't really been taken off yet.  

 

Looking forward to the point in the future where he's able to be used more downfield like the TD play against Denver.

 

 

 

He actually needs to average exactly what he has averaged these last five games, which is 63 ypg. You may be right, but he has shown thus far that he can average those numbers over 5 games to get to 800 yards. Let's see if he can do it for another six. 

 

His YPC is fine as well considering his target and reception volume. Pretty much all the TE's well over 10.0 ypc are guys on pace for 60-75 receptions on the season. Much lower volume than what Dalton has been getting fed over the last five games. Over this five-game stretch where Dalton has broken out, he's on a 115-catch pace through a full season. His pace is actually almost identical to TJ Hockenson's season stats through 11 games. Hockenson has a 9.8 avg and on pace for 115 catches for the season.  Dalton has a 9.3 avg through this five-game stretch. 

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1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

He actually needs to average exactly what he has averaged these last five games, which is 63 ypg. You may be right, but he has shown thus far that he can average those numbers over 5 games to get to 800 yards. Let's see if he can do it for another six. 

 

His YPC is fine as well considering his target and reception volume. Pretty much all the TE's well over 10.0 ypc are guys on pace for 60-75 receptions on the season. Much lower volume than what Dalton has been getting fed over the last five games. Over this five-game stretch where Dalton has broken out, he's on a 115-catch pace through a full season. His pace is actually almost identical to TJ Hockenson's season stats through 11 games. Hockenson has a 9.8 avg and on pace for 115 catches for the season.  Dalton has a 9.3 avg through this five-game stretch. 

 

 

Yeah if he keeps up his pace of the last 5 weeks he will have over 90 catches.........not 80.

 

8.5 yards per catch is a piss poor number for anyone who starts at the LOS though.   9.3 is not good either, which is to my point about the big ask expecting him to up that to 12.5 to get 800 over his first 80.   I'm not saying he couldn't do it.........but it means locking up with CB's and Safeties in coverage downfield more.........as opposed to the LB's he has been exploiting near the LOS with the defense giving them a lot of those underneath routes that fall short of the sticks.   

 

 Now, 8.5 is a solid number for a RB coming out of the backfield........but you want your slot guy averaging a first down plus per reception............that's literally why slot receivers replaced the "3rd down back" many years ago.   It's also why Cole Beasley's impact decreased significantly when he fell under 10 ypc.

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17 hours ago, Pete said:

I say Knox is a great third round pick, and adds a lot to the Bills.  Bills were smashing teams playing 12 personal.  Knox gets hurt, Bills offense slumps and we go to 5-5. 

 

Brady has already shown he is craftier and more adept than Dorsey.  Wait until Brady game plans with Knox and 12 personal!

I actually agree with you on this. 12 personnel does not exclusively mean lining up a TE on each side. You can start in wishbone, then put Kincaid in motion into the slot to diagnose the defense. You can overload them for a sweep/put one in a jet motion and have the option of jet handoff or is a blocker for Cook.

 

It isn't that hard to think of, which is why it was so frustrating that Dorsey wasn't doing it. 

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On 11/20/2023 at 5:20 AM, Whkfc said:

 

Olson ran a 4.75 coming out Kincaid ran a 4.71 Graham ran a 4.55. I don't think the difference is really that big. Kelce ran a 4.71 as well.

 

Keenan Allen ran a 4.71, and Cooper Kupp ran a 4.62. 

 

There's many more examples of elite possession receivers running in the elite TE range for 40's.

 

Over the last 5 weeks Kincaid has performed at an level that would average over 100 catches per year. 

 

I know they line him up inline from time to time and ask him to block. But he really has the potential to be considered a top tier possession receiver. 

 

 

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On 11/20/2023 at 6:40 AM, Whkfc said:

 

Dawson Drops?

I think he disappears too much and for too long of stretches. Good player he needs to find consistency. 

He currently has a broken bone in his foot that the team is treating, yet he is still out there, 👍

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26 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah if he keeps up his pace of the last 5 weeks he will have over 90 catches.........not 80.

 

8.5 yards per catch is a piss poor number for anyone who starts at the LOS though.   9.3 is not good either, which is to my point about the big ask expecting him to up that to 12.5 to get 800 over his first 80.   I'm not saying he couldn't do it.........but it means locking up with CB's and Safeties in coverage downfield more.........as opposed to the LB's he has been exploiting near the LOS with the defense giving them a lot of those underneath routes that fall short of the sticks.   

 

 Now, 8.5 is a solid number for a RB coming out of the backfield........but you want your slot guy averaging a first down plus per reception............that's literally why slot receivers replaced the "3rd down back" many years ago.   It's also why Cole Beasley's impact decreased significantly when he fell under 10 ypc.

 

It took Beasley until his third year to get to 10ypc, and 4th year to get to 50 catches.

 

Overall, Kincaid's rookie season has already been better than Beasley's first two years in the league. An yeah, they still have some training wheels on. 

 

The question for Kincaid is how much and how quickly he'll continue to grow in the final third of the season. 

 

What his stats are at the end of the year are less important to me than seeing him maintain a consistent level of production against what will end up being the toughest competition in the league. 

 

With that said, if his production goes down over the next three games against three elite teams I don't think anyone should be shocked or lose hope in his ability to turn into a consistent 100 catch per year guy with over 10 ypc. 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah if he keeps up his pace of the last 5 weeks he will have over 90 catches.........not 80.

 

8.5 yards per catch is a piss poor number for anyone who starts at the LOS though.   9.3 is not good either, which is to my point about the big ask expecting him to up that to 12.5 to get 800 over his first 80.   I'm not saying he couldn't do it.........but it means locking up with CB's and Safeties in coverage downfield more.........as opposed to the LB's he has been exploiting near the LOS with the defense giving them a lot of those underneath routes that fall short of the sticks.   

 

 Now, 8.5 is a solid number for a RB coming out of the backfield........but you want your slot guy averaging a first down plus per reception............that's literally why slot receivers replaced the "3rd down back" many years ago.   It's also why Cole Beasley's impact decreased significantly when he fell under 10 ypc.


 

 

I didn’t go through them all in depth, but from what I saw pretty much all the TE’s averaging over 10 yards per catch had significantly less catch and target volume.

 

TE’s  averaging over 10 yards per reception are hauling in about four catches per game. Dalton is getting 6.5 catches per game. Maybe reduce his catch volume and his yards per catch will increase?

 

I don’t think 9.3 yards per catch is bad at all. specially when he has one of the highest catch rates in the league.

 

it seems you’re asking him to bring in about 110 catches on the year at 12 yards per catch. That’d be great but it also would basically make him the de facto number one tight end in the game. He doesn’t have to take over the title, of greatest TE in the game just yet.

 

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On 11/21/2023 at 12:08 PM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:


 

 

I didn’t go through them all in depth, but from what I saw pretty much all the TE’s averaging over 10 yards per catch had significantly less catch and target volume.

 

TE’s  averaging over 10 yards per reception are hauling in about four catches per game. Dalton is getting 6.5 catches per game. Maybe reduce his catch volume and his yards per catch will increase?

 

I don’t think 9.3 yards per catch is bad at all. specially when he has one of the highest catch rates in the league.

 

it seems you’re asking him to bring in about 110 catches on the year at 12 yards per catch. That’d be great but it also would basically make him the de facto number one tight end in the game. He doesn’t have to take over the title, of greatest TE in the game just yet.

 

 

 

Pointing out his anemic 8.5 ypc average isn't so much a criticism of him........I think he's clearly capable of much more.......but the reality is that unless they are getting greater chunks than that they aren't really winning against defensive schemes that are allowing these tiny gains by design.

 

The lack of a quality WR2 to stretch the defense has meant they have to use him as a dump off instead of a true weapon.

 

The high volume of dink and dunk football necessary for this team to score most weeks has lead to a lot of mistakes/turnovers.

 

For all the minutia dissecting Dorsey's play calling it's the inability to stretch the field with bigger(and fewer) plays that got him fired.   He was getting enough receivers open and winning a lot of downs(see the EPA efficiency).   They finally got a couple big scoring plays last week from unexpected sources but it took a long time to get there and they happened on a ball thrown behind Shakir that was nearly picked and the other happened on a 4th down play.    It's been a struggle all year with the lack of a dynamic second option in the pass game.

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Follow on to good discussion re Rec, YPC, growth by Beas to get above 10y/rec, etc (Bado, Sammy, Motor, others).

 

Bottom line: DK very solid growth trend, games 1-5 vs 6-10: Rec, Tgt, TD, FD, Yds, YPC

 

1-5   = 17-21-0-4-118-6.94

6-10 = 34-39-2-17-318-9.35

 

Nearly all advanced metrics reflect above (noting, again, that I realize other variables involved)

 

Nevertheless, he's a problem. Now.

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On 11/21/2023 at 1:31 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

I think Terell Bernard is the answer to that question considering Kincaid was universally believed to be the best TE in last year's draft class.  No one really knew who the heck Bernard was and everyone, including (maybe especially) the fan base criticized the pick. 

 

Dude's a stud.

I’m on board with this

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On 11/19/2023 at 6:19 PM, gonzo1105 said:

What? Keith McKeller is Kincaids comparison? 
 

id say his comparison is more Zach Ertz or Dallas Goedert I’d you want to go that route but holy cow Metz and McKellar can’t hold a candle to this guys future 

 

Dalton Kincaid reminds me a lot of Dallas Clark who played 11 years and averaged around 50 receptions, 500 yards, 11 YPC and 10 TDs per year. Clark was an All-American and the best TE of his draft class, winning the John Mackey Award. He was selected by Indy in the 1st round, 24th overall. Like Kincaid, Clark had a basketball background.

 

In his best year Clark had 100 catches for 1100 yards and 10 TDs.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ClarDa00.htm

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On 11/19/2023 at 8:49 PM, Process said:

Top 5 TE for the next 10 years. 

 

I really don't like these superman dives he does every game though, lol. Let's phase those out. 

Kincaid was great at Utah and he will be great for the Bills.  The guy is an excellent football player.  
 

The next TE we need to draft will be in 2 years.  Colston Loveland from Michigan.  6’5 and can run w great hands.  He is only a sophomore.  But will be a stud in the NFL when it’s his time.  And by then it will be time to move on from Knox who is athletically limited, and just can’t make big time catches. 

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12 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Dalton Kincaid reminds me a lot of Dallas Clark who played 11 years and averaged around 50 receptions, 500 yards, 11 YPC and 10 TDs per year. Clark was an All-American and the best TE of his draft class, winning the John Mackey Award. He was selected by Indy in the 1st round, 24th overall. Like Kincaid, Clark had a basketball background.

 

In his best year Clark had 100 catches for 1100 yards and 10 TDs.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ClarDa00.htm

 

Clark was a better blocker and Kincaid is more athletic than Clark but Clark had saavy for getting open. I think if you told me that Kincaid would have 50 rec for 500 yards a year on average for his career i'd be pretty disappointed. The 10TD's a year would be nice though .

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12 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Clark was a better blocker and Kincaid is more athletic than Clark but Clark had saavy for getting open. I think if you told me that Kincaid would have 50 rec for 500 yards a year on average for his career i'd be pretty disappointed. The 10TD's a year would be nice though .

 

I hope you're right and I too, hope for more.

 

That said, for a guy 10 games into his career, being compared to Dallas Clark can only be considered high praise.

 

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