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THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - On Scapegoats and Five and Five


Shaw66

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20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Boston Globe writer Ben Volin says it’s “scapegoat season” in Buffalo, with Ken Dorsey being the latest scapegoat (less than a year after Leslie Frazier was the scapegoat).  That "scapegoat" crap is what commercial journalists drag out every time a team fires a coordinator in mid-season.  (It's like dragging out the "rust" discussion every time one baseball team sweeps and then has to wait a week or more to play again.  At least rust is a real thing; this scapegoating is not.) They say it because some portion of the fan base believes the head coach should be fired; identifying Dorsey as a “scapegoat” (without proof, of course) proves, doesn’t it, that McDermott is the real problem.  These headhunters imply that the Head Coach should understand he's the problem and - what - fire himself?  Quit?  The journalist doesn't necessarily believe it, but saying that the OC is simply a scapegoat is playing to the people who want the head coach out, and not journalism.

 

So, I think Volin is taking a simple, hackneyed way out instead of doing his readers a favor by explaining what's really going on.

 

The reality is that a lot of people who understand the Bills had the same view of the team as I did in preseason - that the defense would be solid, and the success of the team would be measured by the success of the offense.  Success of the offense depended on (1) Dorsey running a good offense, and (2) Allen executing it.  We're now seeing those two questions being answered.  In other words, if the Bills were going to have a difficult season in 2023, the most likely reason was exactly what we're seeing.  

 

The team's defense has been decimated with injuries, but even so, they've kept the Bills in games.  They are middle of the league average in yards allowed per game, but they are fifth in the league in points allowed per game.  It's actually quite an accomplishment that McDermott as HC and DC has built a defense that is somehow surviving the injuries and still making opponents work hard to get something. 

 

It's the offense that has disappointed, not the defense.  Allen is not performing well, and it's possible he's lost focus, hit a wall, or something, but that's less believable than he running this offense well.  He still can make all the throws better than anyone ever, but he isn't making them.  Sometimes he seems not to be decisive, and yes maybe he just can't master reading defenses and executing the offense.  But, it doesn't look like that's true, and even if it is, no one is going to give up yet on his talent.   He's a generational talent, and it's just a stupid play to trade him for a boatload of picks and players, or whatever.

 

So, that means, one way or the other, Dorsey is the problem.  Either Dorsey is failing to design a quality NFL passing offense, or he's failing at training Allen to execute.  If he's failing in design, you have to move on to someone else.  If his offense is fine and he can't get Allen to execute, then, again, you have to move on, because you're committed to Allen long term, and you need to find an OC who can harness Allen's talent. 

 

Dorsey's offense last season didn't look good as the season wore on.  He picked up from where Daboll had left off, but he failed to build the offense further (and he has more to work with than Daboll had).  Still, it was clear to me that he is a talented guy, and it was his rookie year.  If you believed in his potential, you needed to give him another year to see.  If you didn't believe in his potential, then you shouldn't have hired him in the first place. 

 

Now, ten games into the season, the Bills are five and five.  The offense, after an early season explosion, with Allen looking all-worldly, is getting stopped consistently by most every defense they see.  Whatever it takes to be a good offensive coordinator, whatever creativity it takes to keep tweaking your offense as the opponents tweak their defenses, whatever that is, Dorsey doesn't seem to have it.   In his second season, his opportunity to prove the brass wise, he is looking somewhat less capable than in his rookie year.  This team is now top-10 in yards and points per game, but they've fallen way off from their league-leading production in the first four or five weeks.   Now, they are struggling, visibly and statistically.  But even if they plateau around the top-10, that is NOT the expectation with this offense.  The whole point is that with a talent like Allen, top-10 simply isn't enough.  If your offense with Allen isn't top-3, then your offense is failing.  (That’s true if injuries weren’t a problem, and Dorsey hasn't had many injuries.  In fact, I think he started the same offensive line for all ten games.) 

 

Are there other problems with the Bills?  For sure, and that was completely apparent against the Broncos.  The special teams had three really bad plays, the final being an inexcusable procedural penalty that cost them the game.  The defense seems to be getting gashed for the big play more frequently, and it is bending a lot and breaking sometimes.   But, as noted, the injuries are serious - their best safety, their best corner, their best linebacker, their best interior defensive lineman ALL are out for the season.  (And their best edge rusher (Von Miller) has not yet recovered to anything like what he was.  He said he was going to play early, and he is playing.  But it's common to take more than a year to recover from an ACL, and he's right on schedule.  We might not see the real Von Miller again until next season.) 

 

Look at the scores in the Bills' losses:  22-16, 25-20, 29-25, 24-18, 24-22.  It's a team that has a defense that keeps the Bills in games, despite their injuries.  It's a team should have a top-5 offense with Allen but instead has an offense putting up numbers that are no better than ordinary.

 

And finally, is it possible that for some reason (personality, ego, whatever) McDermott will never allow an offensive coordinator the freedom necessary to run the offense?  In other words, is McDermott the problem?  Well, yes, sure, that's possible.  But the question is the same as with Dorsey: did you believe in him when you hired him, and do you believe in him now?  When the guy has put together winners like he has, it's hard not to believe in him for a while longer.   He's intensely committed to winning.  So, yes, maybe the problem is McDermott, but let's say we bet:   You can bet on the future career of the second-season offensive coordinator whose offense isn't getting it done; I'll take the future career of the fifth-winningest coach (%) among all active NFL coaches, behind, LaFleur, Belichick, Reid, and Tomlin and ahead of McCarthy, Harbaugh, Carroll, and McVay.  (Oh, and total wins among active coaches?  He's ninth, ahead of McVay, Shanahan, Vrabel, and Lafleur.) 

 

So, no, Mr. Boston Globe, sir, moving Dorsey out of there in mid-season has nothing at all to do with some "scapegoat" nonsense; it is, in fact, the logical decision under the circumstances.   Maybe with a change, you can find a way to salvage the season, but whatever happens, you know now Dorsey won't be the guy in 2024.  If he's not the guy next season, then at a minimum you can try out someone from your staff to see if he might be the guy. 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were every-day people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

This is a really long post, and I don't read so good.  Somebody needs to be fired.  

 

Sincerely,
95% of TSW 

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16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's actually quite an accomplishment that McDermott as HC and DC has built a defense that is somehow surviving the injuries and still making opponents work hard to get something. 


First off, thank you Shaw for taking the time to post this.  Been lurking around here and the BBMB since College in 2004/05 and have been a long time fan of your takes and writing. 

While I can't argue with the above statement, I feel like the team has become way sloppier and less disciplined overall since McD took over the D.  Especially on Special Teams, where outside of Bass we've been terrible.  There's never been a doubt that McDermott can coach a defense--it always felt like he was able to step in and right the ship when we'd slump with Frazier.  But I can't help but wonder if we'd be better off and have more wins overall if he had hired a D-Coordinator and continued to focus on overseeing all three phases.  It feels like he empowered those guys to run with their respective units, and it's sort of blown up in his face. 

 

I'd be surprised if he was gone regardless of our final record, but if he does end up getting canned, I think that decision is his un-doing.

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I agree with alot of the points here, but the defense is a big part of the problem too.   

 

Letting Mac Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield,  Russ Wilson, and Zach Wilson go on long TD drives in crucial moments of the 4th QTR is not a formula for winning football certainly won't put you in position to make the playoffs.   I realize Tyrod and NYG didnt actually a score a TD, but that was mostly luck and poor officiating in favor of the Bills.  The D has not been able to come with a big stop to seal any of the close games against poor teams. 

 

Add in horrible special teams against the Jets and Broncos and here we are, where someone needed to be fired. 

2 minutes ago, Reks Ryan said:

I agree with some of the points here, but the defense is a big part of the problem too.   

 

Letting Mac Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield,  Russ Wilson, and Zach Wilson go on long TD drives in crucial moments of the 4th QTR is not a formula for winning football certainly won't put you in position to make the playoffs.   I realize Tyrod and NYG didnt actually a score a TD, but that was mostly luck and poor officiating in favor of the Bills.  The D has not been able to come with a big stop to seal any of the close games against poor teams. 

 

Add in horrible special teams against the Jets and Broncos and here we are, where someone needed to be fired. 

 

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29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

So, I think Volin is taking a simple, hackneyed way out instead of doing his readers a favor by explaining what's really going on.

Simple question. Do you think If the 12 men debacle (clearly not Dorsey's fault)  had not happened, last night, would Dorsey have been fired today, the day after a win?

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29 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Simple question. Do you think If the 12 men debacle (clearly not Dorsey's fault)  had not happened, last night, would Dorsey have been fired today, the day after a win?

I think if they won the 3 games leading to the bye, but still were struggling offensively and barely winning, they would fire Dorsey during the bye. After all, McDermott and Allen have been complaining about Dorsey for weeks (McDermott complaining about the lack of rhythm and poor starts during his halftime interviews...Josh saying "I'm just running the plays that are called"). What Shaw says makes sense and if Dorsey didn't improve, this firing was coming regardless of wins and losses.

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5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I think if they won the 3 games leading to the bye, but still were struggling offensively and barely winning, they would fire Dorsey during the bye. After all, McDermott and Allen have been complaining about Dorsey for weeks (McDermott complaining about the lack of rhythm and poor starts during his halftime interviews...Josh saying "I'm just running the plays that are called"). What Shaw says makes sense and if Dorsey didn't improve, this firing was coming regardless of wins and losses.

Anything is possible.  But it actually hard for me to imagine the Bills making this move after a win. 

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Look at the scores in the Bills' losses:  22-16, 25-20, 29-25, 24-18, 24-22.  It's a team that has a defense that keeps the Bills in games, despite their injuries.  It's a team should have a top-5 offense with Allen but instead has an offense putting up numbers that are no better than ordinary.

 

Shaw, this was an outstanding post, I agree with everything you said. I couldn't have said it better myself.

 

With regard to the quote above, I think you nailed it here: McD's defense, especially with the injuries, has played reasonably well. This isn't a D designed to dominate other teams; this is a D designed to keep teams to 25 points or less. That's what this team needs, when you have the QB and the offense we (should) have. As long as the O does what it knows it can do—score 30 or more with relative ease—then the D is more than enough to carry them to victory. It's when games are tight at the end when you see the weaknesses of the D show up and occasionally get exploited, but this team was designed to have a big enough lead at the end of games to make that a non-factor.

 

The offense wasn't doing its job, plain and simple. McD held the defense together and had them performing admirably, I would say well enough, but the offense was the one letting us down game after game. Dorsey couldn't adjust and find the answer.

 

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Hilarious! The Bills offense gives them a late lead with a touchdown scoring drive. The defense then proceeds to allow the Broncos to march down the field setting themselves up for the head coach and our special teams to make mind boggling mistakes thus losing a game, that while ugly, was in fact, already won!

 

And what do we do? We fire the OFFENSIVE coordinator. The message of course being that by golly that offense is supposed to get us far enough ahead that even this brain dead head coach can’t screw it up. Sure….that sounds like a really well run organization. 
 

Give me a break! 

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 

And finally, is it possible that for some reason (personality, ego, whatever) McDermott will never allow an offensive coordinator the freedom necessary to run the offense?  In other words, is McDermott the problem?  Well, yes, sure, that's possible.  But the question is the same as with Dorsey: did you believe in him when you hired him, and do you believe in him now?  When the guy has put together winners like he has, it's hard not to believe in him for a while longer.   He's intensely committed to winning.  So, yes, maybe the problem is McDermott, but let's say we bet:  

 

 

The limitation McDermott may put on offense would be a hurry up offense will expose their defense which is put together with twine. He much would prefer an offense which consumed a large amount of time before scoring.

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Simpleton question. Do you think If the 12 men debacle (clearly not Dorsey's fault)  had not happened, last night, would Dorsey have been fired today, the day after a win?

 

Corrected typo.

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12 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

The limitation McDermott may put on offense would be a hurry up offense will expose their defense which is put together with twine. He much would prefer an offense which consumed a large amount of time before scoring.

 

Corrected typo.

Asinine post. 

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McD preaches “accountability”, it’s his brand. Funny thing there is whenever it seems like he needs to be accountable though he ducks responsibility (at least publicly). After 13 seconds it wasn’t time to talk about it. He wanted to keep it in house. He pulled the same line yesterday, it’s never time to talk about anything that reflects badly on him or his coaching. 
 

“The process” is another thing. It doesn’t seem to apply to him. He is as bad a game day manager in year 6 as he was in year 1.  Timeouts, clock management, challenges etc. so learning from our mistakes is not for him. 
 

Im not a football coach but I was a Marine. I know what leadership looks like. I would imagine watching him throw the offense under the bus to the press the last 2 days while praising his defense and even throwing in the injury’s to prop himself up goes over about as well as a screen door on a submarine. 
 

I’ve lost faith and seen enough of his shtick personally. Ultimately it’s up to Terry but I don’t think we will get to the mountain top with him at the helm.  
 

 

Edited by blitzboy54
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2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Boston Globe writer Ben Volin says it’s “scapegoat season” in Buffalo, with Ken Dorsey being the latest scapegoat (less than a year after Leslie Frazier was the scapegoat).  That "scapegoat" crap is what commercial journalists drag out every time a team fires a coordinator in mid-season.  (It's like dragging out the "rust" discussion every time one baseball team sweeps and then has to wait a week or more to play again.  At least rust is a real thing; this scapegoating is not.) They say it because some portion of the fan base believes the head coach should be fired; identifying Dorsey as a “scapegoat” (without proof, of course) proves, doesn’t it, that McDermott is the real problem.  These headhunters imply that the Head Coach should understand he's the problem and - what - fire himself?  Quit?  The journalist doesn't necessarily believe it, but saying that the OC is simply a scapegoat is playing to the people who want the head coach out, and not journalism.

 

So, I think Volin is taking a simple, hackneyed way out instead of doing his readers a favor by explaining what's really going on.

 

The reality is that a lot of people who understand the Bills had the same view of the team as I did in preseason - that the defense would be solid, and the success of the team would be measured by the success of the offense.  Success of the offense depended on (1) Dorsey running a good offense, and (2) Allen executing it.  We're now seeing those two questions being answered.  In other words, if the Bills were going to have a difficult season in 2023, the most likely reason was exactly what we're seeing.  

 

The team's defense has been decimated with injuries, but even so, they've kept the Bills in games.  They are middle of the league average in yards allowed per game, but they are fifth in the league in points allowed per game.  It's actually quite an accomplishment that McDermott as HC and DC has built a defense that is somehow surviving the injuries and still making opponents work hard to get something. 

 

It's the offense that has disappointed, not the defense.  Allen is not performing well, and it's possible he's lost focus, hit a wall, or something, but that's less believable than he running this offense well.  He still can make all the throws better than anyone ever, but he isn't making them.  Sometimes he seems not to be decisive, and yes maybe he just can't master reading defenses and executing the offense.  But, it doesn't look like that's true, and even if it is, no one is going to give up yet on his talent.   He's a generational talent, and it's just a stupid play to trade him for a boatload of picks and players, or whatever.

 

So, that means, one way or the other, Dorsey is the problem.  Either Dorsey is failing to design a quality NFL passing offense, or he's failing at training Allen to execute.  If he's failing in design, you have to move on to someone else.  If his offense is fine and he can't get Allen to execute, then, again, you have to move on, because you're committed to Allen long term, and you need to find an OC who can harness Allen's talent. 

 

Dorsey's offense last season didn't look good as the season wore on.  He picked up from where Daboll had left off, but he failed to build the offense further (and he has more to work with than Daboll had).  Still, it was clear to me that he is a talented guy, and it was his rookie year.  If you believed in his potential, you needed to give him another year to see.  If you didn't believe in his potential, then you shouldn't have hired him in the first place. 

 

Now, ten games into the season, the Bills are five and five.  The offense, after an early season explosion, with Allen looking all-worldly, is getting stopped consistently by most every defense they see.  Whatever it takes to be a good offensive coordinator, whatever creativity it takes to keep tweaking your offense as the opponents tweak their defenses, whatever that is, Dorsey doesn't seem to have it.   In his second season, his opportunity to prove the brass wise, he is looking somewhat less capable than in his rookie year.  This team is now top-10 in yards and points per game, but they've fallen way off from their league-leading production in the first four or five weeks.   Now, they are struggling, visibly and statistically.  But even if they plateau around the top-10, that is NOT the expectation with this offense.  The whole point is that with a talent like Allen, top-10 simply isn't enough.  If your offense with Allen isn't top-3, then your offense is failing.  (That’s true if injuries weren’t a problem, and Dorsey hasn't had many injuries.  In fact, I think he started the same offensive line for all ten games.) 

 

Are there other problems with the Bills?  For sure, and that was completely apparent against the Broncos.  The special teams had three really bad plays, the final being an inexcusable procedural penalty that cost them the game.  The defense seems to be getting gashed for the big play more frequently, and it is bending a lot and breaking sometimes.   But, as noted, the injuries are serious - their best safety, their best corner, their best linebacker, their best interior defensive lineman ALL are out for the season.  (And their best edge rusher (Von Miller) has not yet recovered to anything like what he was.  He said he was going to play early, and he is playing.  But it's common to take more than a year to recover from an ACL, and he's right on schedule.  We might not see the real Von Miller again until next season.) 

 

Look at the scores in the Bills' losses:  22-16, 25-20, 29-25, 24-18, 24-22.  It's a team that has a defense that keeps the Bills in games, despite their injuries.  It's a team should have a top-5 offense with Allen but instead has an offense putting up numbers that are no better than ordinary.

 

And finally, is it possible that for some reason (personality, ego, whatever) McDermott will never allow an offensive coordinator the freedom necessary to run the offense?  In other words, is McDermott the problem?  Well, yes, sure, that's possible.  But the question is the same as with Dorsey: did you believe in him when you hired him, and do you believe in him now?  When the guy has put together winners like he has, it's hard not to believe in him for a while longer.   He's intensely committed to winning.  So, yes, maybe the problem is McDermott, but let's say we bet:   You can bet on the future career of the second-season offensive coordinator whose offense isn't getting it done; I'll take the future career of the fifth-winningest coach (%) among all active NFL coaches, behind, LaFleur, Belichick, Reid, and Tomlin and ahead of McCarthy, Harbaugh, Carroll, and McVay.  (Oh, and total wins among active coaches?  He's ninth, ahead of McVay, Shanahan, Vrabel, and Lafleur.) 

 

So, no, Mr. Boston Globe, sir, moving Dorsey out of there in mid-season has nothing at all to do with some "scapegoat" nonsense; it is, in fact, the logical decision under the circumstances.   Maybe with a change, you can find a way to salvage the season, but whatever happens, you know now Dorsey won't be the guy in 2024.  If he's not the guy next season, then at a minimum you can try out someone from your staff to see if he might be the guy. 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were every-day people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

All you need to say is “Ben Volin says” and you know the rest.  Nice job here, but there has never been any reason to take this guy seriously about anything.  

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Under Dorsey Josh has regressed.  It doesn't matter what the record is or what happened with 12 men on the field Monday night.  This franchise will live or die, win or lose based on how #17 plays.  

 

If Dorsey can't get the best out of Josh, even if it is primarily Josh's fault, and I'm not making that claim, then they need to get someone in there who can.  It's as simple as that. 

 

Better to do it now and see what Brady can do than wait to the end of the year and then start to look.

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16 minutes ago, blitzboy54 said:

Im not a football coach but I was a Marine. I know what leadership looks like. I would imagine watching him throw the offense under the bus to the press the last 2 days while praising his defense and even throwing in the injury’s to prop himself up goes over about as well as a screen door on a submarine. 
 

I’ve lost faith and seen enough of his shtick personally. Ultimately it’s up to Terry but I don’t think we will get to the mountain top with him at the helm.  

 

Watching this S--- SHOW as a retired Navy Chief it isn't much better, that's for sure. Being in a senior leadership position and facing THE BOSS (Commanding Officer) after poor performance isn't for the weak. We're trained to own our mistakes but McDermott isn't that kind of a leader AT ALL, and his BS comments grate on me. He will literally have to be fired because he's not going to just resign that I am confident in... somehow Josh Allen can get up there and own it BUT HE CAN'T. I am appalled, frankly... Dorsey's firing leaves him completely vulnerable and it's about time! Come on, McDermott, own your failure!

Edited by EasternOHBillsFan
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If you can't say "scapegoat" would you accept "sacrificial lamb"?  Because this had the look of a premeditated response to a loss.  If we won, would this have been done?

 

While I believe there was a lull in the offense for a few games starting in London, it seemed like they were on the verge of breaking out of it.

 

My evaluation of Dorsey for the year was going to be based on overall stats, running Josh less, developing Kincaid quickly, progressing for the playoffs.  Didn't occur to me he wouldn't make the end of the season.

 

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