The Athletic: Dorsey's first 25 games as OC equal to Daboll's last 25

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I always go back to the TB defense of 2019 - the year before Brady got there. They were second in defensive DVOA yet 29th in points given up. That's because the TB quarterback was a turnover machine and opposing defenses scored an unholy number of defensive touchdowns. It skewed everything. A lot of people looked at the counting stats like points allowed and thought they weren't good, but then lo and behold Brady comes on board and the defense is fantastic statistically the next season with the same players. Hmm -- I wonder why. The Giants offense is the worst in the league (it's not even really close) by pretty much every measure, and they put the Giants D in bad situations all of the time. However, if you actually watch the games, Wink Martindale's approach was the first to flummox Shanahan, and the Niners struggled a bit before putting them away given the horrible offense facing them. They played well against Seattle (the offense was horrible), the Bills, Washington, and the Jets. They had no chance against the Cowboys, who scored early and often because the Giants either turned the ball over or couldn't move it at all. The Giants have had 7 out of 9 games where they've thrown for less than 200 yards and two games where they've thrown for less than 100 (including one game where they threw for -9 yards). Pretty sure @GunnerBill would agree with me about the Giants' D. 

 

Now to be fair, I am frustrated with the offense too -- very frustrated. There are real problems with it. But there is some context that I wasn't properly accounting for, and I'm always willing to change my mind if I become aware of evidence that undercuts my gut reactions.

 

I haven't watched a ton of the Giants this year and Wink is a bit blitz heavy for my tastes but that has always been his way and works for him. And he had a really good plan vs the Bills IMO. Not to give the Bills O a pass. But Wink had the better of Dorsey IMO.

[ngbills]

So they are comparing Daboll with a rookie JA to Dorsey? 

[dave mcbride]

16 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

So the Bills defense is the reason why the offense isn't scoring?

 

Tampa Bay that year also was 3rd in the league in offensive scoring.  How were they able to score and we aren't?  Our high score in the last 5 games is 24 points.

We had a stretch where we were only scoring like 4 points in the first half on average.  

 

So we aren't an offense that can overcome defensive adversity then it seems.  You're saying our offense is predicated on how the defense plays.  

First off, see the addendum I added to the post you responded to. Secondly, TB scored a lot that season but that was helped in part by the fact that their defense was terrific irrespective of the points allowed. They were fifth in turnovers forced, 3rd in TOP per drive and 6th in yards per drive. They had the number one rushing defense in the league. 

The current version of the Bills D hasn't been able to force a turnover to save its life for a quarter of a season running now and it can't get off the field, dropping to the near-bottom in third down conversion stoppage rates. 

[GoBills808]

been saying this

[Mango]

Somebody texted me today that Fournette said he had never seen an offense as complicated as the Bills and it would take him a few weeks to get up to speed. I tried googling it, but I can't find it anywhere. (if somebody could find it that would be huge)

Treating it as true for now. this is likely where the problem with the offense lies. I am guessing that maybe the play book has expanded quite a bit this year, especially as the season progresses, which is why things seem much less smooth. It makes sense why we are seeing execution errors around a handful of position groups.  Guys are just overwhelmed. Dorsey is over complicating some things. Josh isn't understanding some things. Turns out we can all stop arguing about the problem, because just about everything turns out to be true. 

On the bright side an overcomplicated offense sounds like about the easiest mid-season fix possible. Tear some pages out of the playbook, keep it simple, and hopefully we find some mojo again. 

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Woah woah, pause a second. 
 

Dabolls first 25 games here came in his THIRD stint as an OC.

 

This is Dorsey’s first. 
 

 

 

they are comparing to Daboll's last 25, not first 25. 

[Royale with Cheese]

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

First off, see the addendum I added to the post you responded to. Secondly, TB scored a lot that season but that was helped in part by the fact that their defense was terrific irrespective of the points allowed. They were fifth in turnovers forced, 3rd in TOP per drive and 6th in yards per drive. They had the number one rushing defense in the league. 

The current version of the Bills D hasn't been able to force a turnover to save its life for a quarter of a season running now and it can't get off the field, dropping to the near-bottom in third down conversion stoppage rates. 

 

So basically we can't expect our offense to carry the defense.  Our offense will only be good if our defense is.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

So basically we can't expect our offense to carry the defense.  Our offense will only be good if our defense is.  

We are 5-4

The offense is carrying the defense

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

So basically we can't expect our offense to carry the defense.  Our offense will only be good if our defense is.  

Not sure why you're opposed to looking at contextual factors rather than relying on a simple black-and-white portrait where the offense is bad and disappointing and nothing else should be considered. Life is more complicated than that.

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

We are 5-4

The offense is carrying the defense

 

5-4 and 20 ppg on offense in the last 5 games is great and where we all expected to be at.

 

Luckily our offense kept us in the shootout against the Giants.  They Giants offense kept scoring and we needed to keep up.

Same thing with the Bucs game.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

There is probably some truth to what he's saying but it's no secret the offense is better than the defense. They have a bunch of injuries and need an elite, not a very good, offense to win. 

 

Using Daboll's games as a barometer isn't useful IMO. Daboll built the offense. So Dorsey hasn't completely ***** the offense up, sure. But a simple explanation for the trend is that Josh has become a more consistent decision maker over his last 25 games as he enters his prime and they have a top 5 offense in football because he and Diggs show up to the field on game day. 

 

EPA per play being top 5 over a large sample size is not the same thing as putting teams on their heels, or blowing their doors off before they can get us into a tight game. There is more to these sports than the metrics and being top 5 in efficiency simply won't cut it right now. What would people have said about Manning or Rodgers or Mahomes teams aiming to have the 5th most efficient offense in football? They'd say that's a down year and the team will be in some trouble unless the defense is fantastic. 

 

I think the problem is that they play conservatively because they have a HC who loves his defense and wants to win by getting more out of his whole roster than relying on his stars. There is too much pressure on a ***** defense. It's stubbornness. Now the defense is unreliable, it's on the field all the time, they don't have a huge margin for error, and so losing turnover battles, getting behind in games, is hurting them. They would be much better off with an offense that was utterly fearsome, played fast, and ended games early. They go no huddle for the first half on Sunday and they win. Too many mediocre first halves on offense this year. Need to force other teams out of their comfort zone. These are still human beings out there who do worse when they're tight. They play like the Bills of 2017 lately but they don't have Tyrod Taylor. They have a weapon in Allen that says top 3 offense in the league or you're ***** up. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Not sure why you're opposed to looking at contextual factors rather than relying on a simple black-and-white portrait where the offense is bad and disappointing and nothing else should be considered. Life is more complicated than that.

Because we don’t have a Tyrod Taylor lead offense with Benjamin, Washington, Jones and Clay as our weapons.  We, in the last 5 games are at that level of scoring.

 

I understand those factors.  With your arguments, you’re telling me that our offense cannot overcome adversity.  
The defense has been decimated by injuries but can’t expect the offense to pick it up?  If we had a slight decrease on offense, yeah, probably expected.  But our offense hasn’t slightly decreased.

 

 

[dave mcbride]

32 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Because we don’t have a Tyrod Taylor lead offense with Benjamin, Washington, Jones and Clay as our weapons.  We, in the last 5 games are at that level of scoring.

 

I understand those factors.  With your arguments, you’re telling me that our offense cannot overcome adversity.  
The defense has been decimated by injuries but can’t expect the offense to pick it up?  If we had a slight decrease on offense, yeah, probably expected.  But our offense hasn’t slightly decreased.

 

 

Again, I have my issues with the offense. But the offense has always feasted point-wise on turnovers. Their D was third in turnovers forced in 2020, third in 2021, and fourth in 2022. 1 turnover in four games just doesn't cut it. All I'm saying is that points are harder to come by on longer fields, and their drive starts are way worse than they were in the first part of the season. It has an effect.

[78thealltimegreat]

4 hours ago, Drew21PA said:

Why not sit down and say

 

we need to win

 

ken go with what works - I don’t give a crap what you want - I want what works and stick to it

 

boom simple solved 

Oh I agree but McDermott seems to want to slow drives down 

[section122]

4 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Not that the analytics models are perfect, but I've felt for quite a while going back to last season that our defense has gotten off too easy. Some, especially on this board, always think it's the offenses job to "win the game". Our defense and McD (even considering the injuries) have been falling off. I think our offense and Josh have plateaued in the current situation. We never add a bonafide #2, we've had a marginal O line and we have a great QB who they're trying to rein in as a runner. The defense has been aging and suffering from missed personnel additions. I also think it's pretty clear that "complimentary football" from McD represents a true lack of confidence in his defense. His level of accountability with his unit hasn't been high enough and blaming the offense is always a built in excuse. Get some damn turnovers defense!

 

To the bolded I have long ascribed to the theory that if the defense holds the opposing offense to 20 or fewer points, they have done their job.  (The league average ppg hasn't been below 20 since 1993).  I have also thought if the offense scores more than 24 they have done their job.

 

Strong heat map vibes I know (if you know you know)

 

By that measure the defense is 5-4 and the offense is also 5-4. 

 

The offense hasn't won a game where the defense didn't do their job but the Giants game sticks out as one where the defense did their job and the Bills won.  Just as easy as you say get some turnovers (flukey and always streaky) I would say the offense needs to score some points.  Add in that the defense is missing 3 of its top players, I think they are doing as well as can be expected.  The offense is lagging and to me at least, seems to be the issue.

 

I'd like to see a more uptempo offense as I think that is the best fix.  When they did that to start the Bucs game, it was the best the Bills looked outside of some 4th quarters.  

[C.Biscuit97]

Come on. This is the definition of a false equivalency. Daboll, who has his faults, took a raw rookie from Wyoming who had accuracy issues and helped mold him into a top 3 qb. Dorsey inherited a top 3 qb. Insanely different 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 hours ago, ngbills said:

So they are comparing Daboll with a rookie JA to Dorsey? 

 

No they compare Dabolls last 25 (2nd half of 2020 and all of 2021) to Dorseys first (and only) 25

 

They also took out a couple of games this year when the Bills offense looked real good like the Miami game and think it was the Raider game to compare just the Bills worst games against Dabolls stats and Dorsey still came out better in many categories.

 

The problem is the eye ball test doesn't seem to agree with this article. HOWEVER after reading the article it may be that the offense isn't quite as bad as everyone here thinks.

 

I also think the problem that stats don't show is the streaky-ness of the Bills offense both from game to game and even worse from drive to drive.  Too many quarters they look terrible then get hot and up the build the stats.

[LABILLBACKER]

12 hours ago, BillsFanSD said:

I think the analytics pendulum has swung too far, to the point that people are refusing to see what's right in front of them.

 

Digression.  During Josh Allen's first year, I saw a player who was capable of winning games all by himself.  He was raw and basically uncoached, but he had plays each game that reminded me of people like Steve Young and John Elway.  Yes, I was comparing our first-year QB to two HOFers.  Today it's fashionable for people to pull up Allen's stats from his first couple of years to talk about how "bad" he was back then, but the fact is that if you actually watched the guy play, he was very obviously good, not bad.  He was only bad if you just looked at the stats and never watched any games.  By the eyeball test, this was definitely a guy that we could build around.

 

In 2023, it's not like that.  I know the stats are good, and Allen still makes 2-3 dazzling plays every game.  He didn't turn into a pumpkin after week 4.  But just watching the guy play, it's not the same offense.  He's incredibly reluctant to scramble, he doesn't seem to roll out as much, and it feels like he's playing with one hand tied behind his back.  His accuracy is great and he doesn't air-mail guys anymore, but things are very obviously not clicking.  He looks less like a guy who should be on the cover of Madden and more like a rich man's Phillip Rivers.  

 

I'm saying the stats are wrong of course.  Just that you're missing something if only look at the stats and don't pay attending to what you can see with your own two eyes.  Stats are an important part of the picture, but they're not the whole picture.

This is happening because after the Jets disaster he's now basically been castrated.  You still see him try to be the old Josh but you can see these coaches have absolutely gotten way too deep into his head.  McDorsey has no clue.

[Scott7975]

10 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

First off, see the addendum I added to the post you responded to. Secondly, TB scored a lot that season but that was helped in part by the fact that their defense was terrific irrespective of the points allowed. They were fifth in turnovers forced, 3rd in TOP per drive and 6th in yards per drive. They had the number one rushing defense in the league. 

The current version of the Bills D hasn't been able to force a turnover to save its life for a quarter of a season running now and it can't get off the field, dropping to the near-bottom in third down conversion stoppage rates. 

 

Sorry no.  You can't put all the offensive woes on our defense and starting field position.  

 

Bengals game possessions

start at 25 got a first down by penalty and went 3 and out punt.  

start at 12 2 plays int on our own side of the field

start at 9 3 and out  minus yardage

start at 25 moved the ball but a bogus imo intentional grounding call took us out of FG range and half ended

start at 26 FG

start at 9 3 and out

start at 9 moved the ball but fumbled in their territory

 

Those are all the drives we did not score on and one we did.  Explain to me how field position mattered at all.  If anything it was the offense that couldn't flip the field. Not too mention our punts sucked. Field position doesn't matter if you go 3 and out or turn over the ball anyways.  Most of those our defense made stops by midfield btw.

 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Scott7975

[GoBills808]

5 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Come on. This is the definition of a false equivalency. Daboll, who has his faults, took a raw rookie from Wyoming who had accuracy issues and helped mold him into a top 3 qb. Dorsey inherited a top 3 qb. Insanely different 

Dabolls last 25 not first