All-22 analysis of Bills/Jags

[C.Biscuit97]

42 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

So we're back to teams show us a look and we throw our hands up and stop running the ball. 

 

3 attempts in the second half (2 of which were Shotgun draws to Cook for negative yards) and I'm supposed to think that Jacksonville just "took that away"? 

I think that’s a good point. It’s frustrating when runs aren’t going away and it seems like you are throwing away a down. But you still need the threat of attempted runs to set up play action. 
 

also, even when it’s not working, d linemen (and conversely o linemen) would rather just tee off on passing situations. Run block can wear out a defense. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

How many air yards was the pass?  There is a limit to how far even Allen can throw the ball.  In the article that Happy attached it says "70 yards" but I didn't think it traveled that far.  But anything over 60 is the realistic maximum distance for even a guy like Allen.  And again that was a very catchable ball that a lot of the WR's in the NFL make.  In fact I suspect that Diggs catches that exact same pass 4 out of every 5 times.

 

 

I don't know if Diggs does tbh because he's not a big contested catch guy

 

But AJ Brown, Hill, Adams etc are coming down w that ball a decent amount of the time and if not they're certainly not letting it go for an INT

 

edit for photo

Edited October 10, 2023 by GoBills808

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The first half of this I agree with. It is a low percentage throw and I don't mind him taking the chance, he underthrew it but it is a small and insignificant mistake compared to other things that went on in that game. Doesn't stop me believing Josh played well, certainly well enough to win, on Sunday. 

 

I disagree on the 2nd half. The momentum of the two players at the point that they compete for the football was not equitable. Diggs was at a specific advantage. I'd expect a DB launching into the air from a full speed sprint to win that ball 4 / 5 against a receiver who has slowed and is trying to come back for the football. I'm sure there would be a scientific formula one could do that demonstrates the advantage the DB had. 

If you've ever played wr you would know this is wrong 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

If you've ever played wr you would know this is wrong 

 

I have never played wide receiver. I am open to someone explaining why it is wrong. But just based on the basic laws of physics it is clear to me the DB had far more momentum with which to propel himself into the air than Diggs. 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have never played wide receiver. I am open to someone explaining why it is wrong. But just based on the basic laws of physics it is clear to me the DB had far more momentum with which to propel himself into the air than Diggs. 

Catching downfield requires a lot of concentration in addition to great body control

 

The wr who has tracked the ball and gathers himself to go up is almost always in a better position to make a play than the DB who has been sprinting w head turned and his momentum going away...which works against catching a pass

 

It's easier to catch a pass downfield the slower you as a receiver are moving, your momentum away from the ball works against you

 

 

 

[WideNine]

5 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

Here’s the disconnect - play action opens up the middle of the field by pulling defenders into the box. Because of this they are now responsible for an immediate gap in the run game and thus have to play run first. This is why play action is successful because it can pull backers and box safeties toward the LoS. It has zero effect on corners eyes or, in the case of what we saw from Jacksonville, MOF Closed Safeties. They’re working their pass keys regardless of the action. Because they were in MOF Closed coverage the majority of the day there wasn’t anything to take advantage of in the middle of the field by using play action which is why every time we ran it except one the pass went outside where, like I said, the corners are just playing coverage as normal based on their key read.

 

Hope that clears it up for you.

 

I can live with that and especially DBs having their responsibilities, were they rolling safety help over the top or playing quarters.

 

I don't have All 22 so going off memory. I thought I saw a few single high looks with the SS in the box.

 

Allen stays on schedule more and completes more passes from under center, not sure if anyone knows why - perhaps less to do with defensive reactions and more that he is just wired that way.

 

We lost quite a bit in the trenches, but I thought that was more due to simulated pressures and how well the Jags diagnosed our protection schemes and could overload sides without having to send the extra rusher although they sprinkled in blitzes.

 

Their Josh Allen is a Swiss army knife - hand on the ground bull rushing and winning vs OL, or wide with speed, or off the ball covering he came as billed.

 

They did a good job attacking gaps forcing double teams while freeing up rushers on stunts.

 

They did a good job of containing the edges and forcing Allen to operate in the pocket or step up.

 

I said it in another thread they put on a clinic and our OL had their hands full.

 

 

 

 

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

I’ve done everything from DI down as a defensive coordinator.

 

As far as the content stuff - I don’t usually have a ton of time to watch most of it. I’ve seen some Cover 1 stuff and I think I’ve said this in the past - they do a good job of regurgitating football terms and giving you maybe a general idea of what’s going on but I’m not sure how much football they actually know. Erik does a better job offensively (probably because there’s more information out there about offense) than he does talking defense. He can tell you general concept names and reads on offense but I’ve never heard him get into specific rules for positions. Defensively he often gets coverages wrong or says players are doing things on “instincts” when really it’s just players playing fast within the rules of the defense whether that be fits or coverages. I don’t know much about the other guys.

 

Scheme is tough to learn without being in it. Coaches are pretty protective of their stuff so if something gets out it’s no longer being used or taught that way anymore. That being said there is a ton of information out there. It’s kind of like a grab bag though - you have to piece together stuff like a puzzle. There aren’t just breakdowns of entire schemes all in one place. Additionally there isn’t a common language spoken when it comes to football. Everyone kind of has their own name for things which can get convoluted when first trying to learn because you’ll hear multiple terms for the same thing depending on what information you’re looking at.

 

If it was easier to upload images on to this site I’d do more in depth breakdown stuff more often but it’s kind of a pain in the butt trying to get multiple images into one post. Maybe someone has a work-around?

 

The best way would be to host the photos somewhere else. Even a twitter post and then just copy the image link and paste it here.  Unfortunately the file size for even one photo here is ridiculously small.

[HoofHearted]

6 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I can live with that and especially DBs having their responsibilities, were they rolling safety help over the top or playing quarters.

 

I don't have All 22 so going off memory. I thought I saw a few single high looks with the SS in the box.

 

Allen stays on schedule more and completes more passes from under center, not sure if anyone knows why - perhaps less to do with defensive reactions and more that he is just wired that way.

 

We lost quite a bit in the trenches, but I thought that was more due to simulated pressures and how well the Jags diagnosed our protection schemes and could overload sides without having to send the extra rusher although they sprinkled in blitzes.

 

Their Josh Allen is a Swiss army knife - hand on the ground bull rushing and winning vs OL, or wide with speed, or off the ball covering he came as billed.

 

They did a good job attacking gaps forcing double teams while freeing up rushers on stunts.

 

They did a good job of containing the edges and forcing Allen to operate in the pocket or step up.

 

I said it in another thread they put on a clinic and our OL had their hands full.

 

 

 

 

They played primarily 3, but did play some quarters and two.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

People keep pounding on the YAC point, its the QB, not the wideouts.   Its not something that is ever going to change with Josh as the QB.  He is often throwing off platform.   How many times have you seen our wideouts hit in stride allowing them YAC?   Now think of how many times you've seen our wideouts catching the ball low or late or while they are already on the ground?

 

I love Josh.  Wouldnt trade him for pretty much anyone in the league, but the low YAC is a direct result of his playing style.

 

That may be sometimes true, it certainly isn't always true.  People like to parrot stuff until it becomes fact.  These receivers have a hard time creating separation. Especially in the shorter/quick range. They aren't going to get many YAC balls when that is the case.

[34-78-83]

16 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I’ve caught a bit of Marino and Turner from time to time: I am curious…what are their credentials regarding actual football acumen aside from having shows that are dedicated to breaking down film? 

Turner was a football coach, and also is an alumnus of The Scouting Academy, and worked as a National Scout for NDT Scouting

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

18 hours ago, Shortchaz said:

Josh is a great but flawed quarterback. All his physical tools are ideal. He has, and still can (a lot of the time), rely heavily on these tools. He hasn’t had to be a student of the game beyond what is normal (for starting nfl quarterbacks). If he wants to go to the next level he has to develop this aspect of his game. He has to make his changeup as good as his fastball if you will. 
 

These shortcomings are also on coaching. The coordinator and the qb are a package. 
 

These criticisms are in the context of josh already being a great nfl quarterback. 

This is absolute bollocks haha if anything, he trusted his progressions and reads TOO MUCH in this game. He had to improvise more and find big chunks of yardage because stringing long drives together with two of his tackles playing terribly and receivers dropping balls was impossible. 
 

even though this was a loss I feel like it’s more evidence that he could be the best in the league.  He was virtually lights out and pretty much everyone on the field let him down…unless you want to harp on the fact that he slightly underthrew a 70 yard laser under pressure. 

I also don’t really see it talked about, maybe because they’re the jags which somehow keeps him from being a household name but other josh Allen is an absolute beast.  He pretty much wrecked our offensive line single handedly  
 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[TheyCallMeAndy]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know if Diggs does tbh because he's not a big contested catch guy

 

But AJ Brown, Hill, Adams etc are coming down w that ball a decent amount of the time and if not they're certainly not letting it go for an INT

 

edit for photo

It’s the way they landed. Yes it’s on Diggs, should have completed the catch, but the way the CB landed he had all the leverage on the ball, Diggs had none. 
 

Pure luck for the CB. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

It’s the way they landed. Yes it’s on Diggs, should have completed the catch, but the way the CB landed he had all the leverage on the ball, Diggs had none. 
 

Pure luck for the CB. 

Jefferson did the same thing but in reverse to Cam Lewis last year, it's not just luck

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know if Diggs does tbh because he's not a big contested catch guy

 

But AJ Brown, Hill, Adams etc are coming down w that ball a decent amount of the time and if not they're certainly not letting it go for an INT

 

edit for photo

That’s gotta go down for a joint possession at worst I still cannot believe that play…looked like diggs caught it and he lost the wrestle for the football on the way down 

 

have to say though if he wasn’t gonna hang on to it an interception was probably the second best option lol josh is slowly turning into an elite punter too 😂

3 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

So we're back to teams show us a look and we throw our hands up and stop running the ball. 

 

3 attempts in the second half (2 of which were Shotgun draws to Cook for negative yards) and I'm supposed to think that Jacksonville just "took that away"? 

I’d normally agree with you but jax was taking this a bit to the extreme.  I think the way they were loading the box we probably ran the ball too much if anything if you could believe that lol but we likely still wanted play action to remain somewhat effective.

 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[TheyCallMeAndy]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Jefferson did the same thing but in reverse to Cam Lewis last year, it's not just luck

Those are apples and orange's.  Jefferson is the bigger, stronger WR who took it out of a smaller DBs hands who was trying to catch it instead of trying to knock it down. 
 

Diggs is bigger than that Jacksonville DB, the way the landed and rolled on the ground the DB had the leverage to come away with the ball the instant he would have needed to. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

That’s gotta go down for a joint possession at worst I still cannot believe that play…looked like diggs caught it and he lost the wrestle for the football on the way down 

 

have to say though if he wasn’t gonna hang on to it an interception was probably the second best option lol josh is slowly turning into an elite punter too 😂

I remember the Rams game couple yrs back they gave the INT where receiver (think it was Knox but not sure) and DB both came down w the ball too

 

And yes for all intents and purposes that was a punt

[Low Positive]

4 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

That’s gotta go down for a joint possession at worst I still cannot believe that play…looked like diggs caught it and he lost the wrestle for the football on the way down 

 

have to say though if he wasn’t gonna hang on to it an interception was probably the second best option lol josh is slowly turning into an elite punter too 😂

The play was 3-15 and the Jags got trapped inside the 10. There is no guarantee that the 4th down punt would have produced a better result than that.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I remember the Rams game couple yrs back they gave the INT where receiver (think it was Knox but not sure) and DB both came down w the ball too

 

And yes for all intents and purposes that was a punt

Haha yea I was chuckling about that as I was posting…still an absolute nonsense call. I believe it was Tyler kroft and that ended up sparking a huge rams comeback 

[GoBills808]

Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Those are apples and orange's.  Jefferson is the bigger, stronger WR who took it out of a smaller DBs hands who was trying to catch it instead of trying to knock it down. 
 

Diggs is bigger than that Jacksonville DB, the way the landed and rolled on the ground the DB had the leverage to come away with the ball the instant he would have needed to. 

I'm saying there are guys who have the strength to make that catch at a certain frequency and imo Diggs isnt one of them, his strengths lie elsewhere

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I'm saying there are guys who have the strength to make that catch at a certain frequency and imo Diggs isnt one of them, his strengths lie elsewhere

Normally I’d agree, but I’m pretty sure the DB who won is a very small CB

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

The play was 3-15 and the Jags got trapped inside the 10. There is no guarantee that the 4th down punt would have produced a better result than that.

Yea the majority of Josh’s ints actually have helped us.  One was an arm punt on 2nd and long which isn’t a huge negative but it’s throwing a down away, and one was a very bad pick at midfield against the jets.  all the others were fine.  It’s kind of crazy all ints count the same on that stat sheet 😂

 

I can’t believe how important that play to diggs was.  Obviously you change the way the game is played a bit but that could’ve been a 400 passing yard 4 total td win for josh if diggs hangs on to that ball that was literally in his hands 

 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[GoBills808]

Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Normally I’d agree, but I’m pretty sure the DB who won is a very small CB

Yes that's my point

 

AJ Brown would have just ripped the ball off the defenders head, Jefferson would have knifed it from between his hands, Hill would have backflipped over the DB and caught it between his legs or something

 

Diggs is a very explosive in short areas/surgical precise footwork/sticky hands kind of guy but he's not going to just beast out and physically dominate the contested catch situation, and tbh I don't expect him to because that's not really his game

[Coach Tuesday]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know if Diggs does tbh because he's not a big contested catch guy

 

But AJ Brown, Hill, Adams etc are coming down w that ball a decent amount of the time and if not they're certainly not letting it go for an INT

 

edit for photo

Diggs won a walk-off playoff game with one of the greatest contested catches I’ve ever seen.  He can make and has made that play.

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Yea the majority of Josh’s ints actually have helped us.  One was an arm punt on 2nd and long which isn’t a huge negative but it’s throwing a down away, and one was a very bad pick at midfield against the jets.  all the others were fine.  It’s kind of crazy all ints count the same on that stat sheet 😂

 

I can’t believe how important that play to diggs was.  Obviously you change the way the game is played a bit but that could’ve been a 400 passing yard 4 total td win for josh if diggs hangs on to that ball that was literally in his hands 

 

 

The DB was falling backward towards the ground, so he was working with gravity. Diggs was trying to fight both the DB and physics.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Diggs won a walk-off playoff game with one of the greatest contested catches I’ve ever seen.  He can make and has made that play.

Which one was that?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Catching downfield requires a lot of concentration in addition to great body control

 

The wr who has tracked the ball and gathers himself to go up is almost always in a better position to make a play than the DB who has been sprinting w head turned and his momentum going away...which works against catching a pass

 

It's easier to catch a pass downfield the slower you as a receiver are moving, your momentum away from the ball works against you

 

 

 

 

The DB's momentum wasn't going away though? He didn't break his stride at all.

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Which one was that?

He's talking about the Minneapolis Miracle, but it wasn't really a contested catch:

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

The DB was falling backward towards the ground, so he was working with gravity. Diggs was trying to fight both the DB and physics.

Yea I don’t even think he had to rip the ball out and possess it solo though…if he just falls on top of the guy with his hands still on the ball too we probably get credit for the catch. 

a lot of that would’ve come down to the ruling on the field though of course 

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

He's talking about the Minneapolis Miracle, but it wasn't really a contested catch:

 

Completely different catch

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by GoBills808
add photo

[GoBills808]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The DB's momentum wasn't going away though? He didn't break his stride at all.

i was going to use a soccer analogy- on long goal kicks the defender usually has leverage being the deeper guy, in this situation diggs would be in the defender's position

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

i was going to use a soccer analogy- on long goal kicks the defender usually has leverage being the deeper guy, in this situation diggs would be in the defender's position

 

But the central defender (and I have played that position plenty ) normally has the momentum advantage and is timing it up to attack the ball and the forward is the one with the standing start. Diggs wasn't quite a standing start but he did not have the momentum advantage. Almost always in aerial duels in soccer it is momentum and timing that wins the day. 

 

[GoBills808]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

But the central defender (and I have played that position plenty ) normally has the momentum advantage and is timing it up to attack the ball and the forward is the one with the standing start. Diggs wasn't quite a standing start but he did not have the momentum advantage. Almost always in aerial duels in soccer it is momentum and timing that wins the day. 

 

Diggs had less momentum going away from the ball than the DB

 

the defender winning a header is usually similarly advantaged

 

unless you are going up against a freak like Lukaku or Haaland or Drogba the defender is always in a better spot because he has less momentum going away from the ball

 

at the catch moving away from the direction of the pass is the disadvantage

[thenorthremembers]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

That may be sometimes true, it certainly isn't always true.  People like to parrot stuff until it becomes fact.  These receivers have a hard time creating separation. Especially in the shorter/quick range. They aren't going to get many YAC balls when that is the case.

The best the Bills have ever been in YAC since Josh took over as QB is 14th.  So it makes more sense to you that they consistently sign wideouts who can't separate for the last 6 years than it is to say Josh's throwing style doesn't lead to YAC yardage?

 

They've had how many different tight ends and wideouts since 2018?  I can count 10 without trying, and all of those guys can't separate?   Yes, I am repeating my opinion on this redundantly, because it comes up multiple times a year.  

[Buffalo716]

@HoofHearted

 

I knew I had an old thread on it and I found it 

 

you are the last comment page 1 

 

And tho I don't think the NFL is playing it off as new or innovative because it's not new

 

I certainly don't think it's as easy to execute at a high level ... some teams just don't have the right guys... Tre and Dane and Micah and Poyer and benford are very heady players... cerebral... they fit it perfectly 

 

You need a defensive back field that is playing in cohesion, and has great field awareness, play recognition... saban has run it with success at Alabama because he recruits super heady cornerbacks.. the best/smartest HS corners and safeties in the country... perfect scheme fit 

 

St John bosco's can run it because they have five division one defensive backs ... I could run it at canisius because they have the best players in buffalo ... But I don't think it would work at JFK because they don't have the right guys or football ability 

 

Some NFL teams have super athletic corners who aren't thinkers ... just turn hips and run ... That team might not find as much success in palms as a team that value cerebral corners

 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Buffalo716

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know if Diggs does tbh because he's not a big contested catch guy

 

But AJ Brown, Hill, Adams etc are coming down w that ball a decent amount of the time and if not they're certainly not letting it go for an INT

 

edit for photo

It was good that it went for an INT instead of an INC. It was the Bills’ best punt all day: 51 yards and no return. It was 3rd and 15.

[GoBills808]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

It was good that it went for an INT instead of an INC. It was the Bills’ best punt all day: 51 yards and no return. It was 3rd and 15.

would have been better it it was a catch

[dave mcbride]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

would have been better it it was a catch

The defender made a great play. The other side makes good plays too.

[jlgarsh]

Josh had a PFF grade of 91.5 and a QBR of 86.7 vs. the Jags. He was not the problem Sunday.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

The defender made a great play. The other side makes good plays too.

of course

 

you'd just like to think in a competition between Stefon Diggs and Darious Williams you could predict the winner w some regularity

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

of course

 

you'd just like to think in a competition between Stefon Diggs and Darious Williams you could predict the winner w some regularity

I can’t get too down on Diggs, who is so far having the best season of his career. He is on pace for 132 receptions, 1768 yards, and 17 TDs. I expect it to tail off due to weather, but he has been playing like a first-team all pro this season.