4 drives ended by dropped passes

[Billsfan1972]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

OK, but not fair to Davis to credit it as a drop then either given the stigma that exists for him, and in that game, particularly given his very significant contributions to 2 TD drives.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

 

It hit him right in the hands, no one near him.  

 

Tired of credit being pro football player catching balls that are thrown on the money and they make the catch.  Every pass to Gabe that he caught was a perfect pass.  He went up for one, caught another a perfect sideline route and got his feet in (good for him), a good td catch on a perfect pass from Allen.  

 

Great receivers make contested catches and ones where they take a hard hit.

 

Gabe made the catches he was meant to make and dropped one he shouldn't have. 

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

It hit him right in the hands, no one near him.  

 

Tired of credit being pro football player catching balls that are thrown on the money and they make the catch.  Every pass to Gabe that he caught was a perfect pass.  He went up for one, caught another a perfect sideline route and got his feet in (good for him), a good td catch on a perfect pass from Allen.  

 

Great receivers make contested catches and ones where they take a hard hit.

 

Gabe made the catches he was meant to make and dropped one he shouldn't have. 

 

So the last catch that he made here, for example, is a routine catch as you imply?  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axzo6SP7hSE

 

I also thought that his first TD catch, the negated one, was an exceptional non-routine catch as well, and one that not every WR makes.  

 

I'd like to find a video clip of that "drop," particularly since it wasn't catalogued as a drop by the league.  

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

14 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

So the last catch that he made here, for example, is a routine catch as you imply?  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axzo6SP7hSE

 

I also thought that his first TD catch, the negated one, was an exceptional non-routine catch as well, and one that not every WR makes.  

 

I'd like to find a video clip of that "drop," particularly since it wasn't catalogued as a drop by the league.  

 

 

Yes he threw a perfect pass to where only Gabe could catch it and it landed like a pillow in his lap.  He wasn't fighting the DBfor possession (i.e. his hands on the ball).  Sorry I have higher standards.  Great pass and Gabe made the play. 

 

The dropped pass the announcer said immediately "Gabe wishes he had that one back".

[PBF81]

21 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yes he threw a perfect pass to where only Gabe could catch it and it landed like a pillow in his lap.  He wasn't fighting the DBfor possession (i.e. his hands on the ball).  Sorry I have higher standards.  Great pass and Gabe made the play. 

 

The dropped pass the announcer said immediately "Gabe wishes he had that one back".

 

Yeah, I remember it.  

 

Only one offical drop through five games however, notably better than last season and very much line with good WRs.  

His 3.8% drop % puts him in the company of Waddle, Aiyuk, AJ Brown, and Davante Adams.  

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

23 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, I remember it.  

 

Only one offical drop through five games however, notably better than last season and very much line with good WRs.  

His 3.8% drop % puts him in the company of Waddle, Aiyuk, AJ Brown, and Davante Adams.  

 

 

That is one stat I never get, because that was as obvious a drop as there can be. 

 

I don't dislike Davis, and happy he had a productive day, and averaging 4-4.5 catches a game would be a good start as the # 2.   

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

That is one stat I never get, because that was as obvious a drop as there can be. 

 

I don't dislike Davis, and happy he had a productive day, and averaging 4-4.5 catches a game would be a good start as the # 2.   

 

Yeah, I'm not sure how they measure those either.  But last season it's what everyone used to degrade the guy.  

 

IMO he's having a great season. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

OK then, from what I'm reading, to date, the answer to the question is zero, barring the K, right?  

 

Yes. I don't know how much clearer I could be on that. 

 

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

As to Groot, had his play over the first four games last season continued he'd have been not only a 1st-team, but All-Pro as well, and would have finished tied for 2nd in sacks a mere 2.5 sacks behind Bosa, 2nd in TFLs and tied for 14th in QBHits.  But he waned and went the opposite direction over the last dozen games, even in his next four before his injury.  AKA, ... didn't even approach happening.  

 

If Oliver continues his play linearly, then he'll have exceeded Aaron Donald's 2nd best season, and logged more TFLs than Donald ever logged, by 5, and will have exceeded Donald's QBHits numbers in all but 3 seasons.  Are you truly optimistic that that even comes close to occurring?  

 

While I'd be as excited as you to see this, the reality is that it's very unlikely to occur.  Oliver's had four seasons to post elite numbers and he's never come close.  Both players have been plagued with significant inconsistency in their game-to-game play.  In fairness Groot is only in his second season and did suffer an injury last season, but having said that, the phrase "injury prone" shouldn't be not of a concern re: him.  

 

And frankly, if they do, then that takes care of your hesitation regarding the requisite "elite players required to win the Super Bowl," right?   

 

In fact, given their level of play to date, why do concerns even exist then if they're both playing at elite levels?   I mean to date an "elite DT" and an "elite DE"?   That's what the going opinion here is now.  

 

 

Do I think Ed and Groot can continue at this pace? Yes I think they can - note CAN and not WILL. It is possible. Why? Because they have the talent to do it. I think Ed Oliver's raw productions numbers have undervalued his performance the past two years and have consistently said so on here. When the underlying analytics are as strong as they were eventually the numbers will follow. I also think last year he was dominant when healthy and less dominant when playing hurt. I don't see this as a sudden improvement - I see it as following on from that healthy spell he had in the middle of last season - particularly that Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit run. Groot I think there is a bit of a lower ceiling on, but he is a very high floor player and if he can hit his ceiling throughout the rest of the year he is certainly capable of being in the conversation too. 

 

An yes, if they maintain their play level then we still have the chance to go into the playoffs with the minimum 4 elite level guys you need. I said that in my very first post on in this discussion. We have Josh, Stef, Von who is a question mark coming back and Ed and Groot who are the two who could possibly step up into that conversation. If two of the three defensive guys were to play at that proper elite level then yes the Bills can still win a Superbowl. But two guys who have proven themselves capable of that top end consistency are gone for the year. So the chances are reduced because you are now relying on less proven commodities. I don't know why you needed to ask that my views on it are completely clear in previous posts. 

 

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

So you'd give a GM 8 seasons, AFTER drafting a generational talent like Allen, who would then be 30 going into that next season, with an entirely new GM? 

 

"Starters in the NFL" isn't the standard here, by your definition it's "elite players."   Moss is a starter.  Zay Jones is a starter.  Brown is a starter.  Cook's a starter.  Davis is a starter and he's persona non grata here.  LOL  

 

We definitely have two different standards.  I would never even consider keeping a GM beyond five years if he hasn't produced a single elite player, the likes of which you state that we need 4-5 of to win a Super Bowl, particularly with a generational talent like Allen then merely rotting on the vine.  

 

To wit, if 4-5 elite players are needed, and if you want to avoid serious cap issues, you'll need to draft at least 3 of them.  One every 7 or 8 seasons will never see more than 2 on the field at the same time.  

 

Yes. He has drafted a lot of starters and not enough elite difference makers. That is my take on Brandon Beane. It has been since before you turned up here. And yes, I'd give him the chance of the current guys and one more draft class a year of being on the field before I'd really consider moving on. I do think there is pressure on him to unearth a true difference maker, but equally he is good at his job. I wouldn't give someone who is bad at their job 8 years but Beane isn't bad at his job. He is good at it, but could still be better. The overall talent of this roster is top half dozen or so in the NFL but is probably a bit thicker in the middle and thinner at either end. 

 

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

You said this;  

 

Since our discussion revolves around his drafts, how so?  

 

I include his peers as the GMs of the teams that have been the most uniformly competitive over the past several seasons, not the GM of the Falcons, Texans, or Broncos.  

 

He's produced absolutely zero "elite players" in his drafts after his very first pick of Allen, which was a successful poke-n-hope for Allen, pending Groot & Oliver.  

 

Which GMs havent produced more than a single elite player in the last five drafts of theirs from '18 to '22?  

 

And for peers," again, let's consider the teams that have been our primary rivals over the past three seasons, namely KC, Philly, the Rams, Bengals, Niners for example.  AKA, teams that we'd need to beat if we want our elusive Lombardi.  

 

 

On draft performance I have referenced to you before the work @JGMcD2's work on this on this very forum. Then there is PFF (this was up to an including 2021) and ESPN (up to 2022 but going back as far as 2012.... though it breaks down for each year). They are all trying to do the same thing... find a way of putting a value on draft performance. But the overriding theme is they all consistently have the Bills as pretty strong performers. 2017 (which totally agreed was McDermott, not Beane) and 2018 are their two best drafts - White, Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Johnson have been 5 cornerstones just from two classes. 

 

As for counts for the teams you mention between 18 and 22 I have:

 

Chiefs - 1 (Creed Humphrey)

Eagles - 2 (Jalen Hurts [some might dispute, I don't] and Jordan Maitala)

Rams - 0

Bengals - 3 (Jessie Bates, Joe Burrow, Ja'marr Chase)

49ers - 3 (Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner)

 

And what do the final two on that list have in common? Multiple top 10 picks in that time. So while I think Beane is at the lower end he isn't a million miles below his competitors. 

 

 

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. I don't know how much clearer I could be on that. 

 

 

Do I think Ed and Groot can continue at this pace? Yes I think they can - note CAN and not WILL. It is possible. Why? Because they have the talent to do it. I think Ed Oliver's raw productions numbers have undervalued his performance the past two years and have consistently said so on here. When the underlying analytics are as strong as they were eventually the numbers will follow. I also think last year he was dominant when healthy and less dominant when playing hurt. I don't see this as a sudden improvement - I see it as following on from that healthy spell he had in the middle of last season - particularly that Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit run. Groot I think there is a bit of a lower ceiling on, but he is a very high floor player and if he can hit his ceiling throughout the rest of the year he is certainly capable of being in the conversation too. 

 

An yes, if they maintain their play level then we still have the chance to go into the playoffs with the minimum 4 elite level guys you need. I said that in my very first post on in this discussion. We have Josh, Stef, Von who is a question mark coming back and Ed and Groot who are the two who could possibly step up into that conversation. If two of the three defensive guys were to play at that proper elite level then yes the Bills can still win a Superbowl. But two guys who have proven themselves capable of that top end consistency are gone for the year. So the chances are reduced because you are now relying on less proven commodities. I don't know why you needed to ask that my views on it are completely clear in previous posts. 

 

 

Yes. He has drafted a lot of starters and not enough elite difference makers. That is my take on Brandon Beane. It has been since before you turned up here. And yes, I'd give him the chance of the current guys and one more draft class a year of being on the field before I'd really consider moving on. I do think there is pressure on him to unearth a true difference maker, but equally he is good at his job. I wouldn't give someone who is bad at their job 8 years but Beane isn't bad at his job. He is good at it, but could still be better. The overall talent of this roster is top half dozen or so in the NFL but is probably a bit thicker in the middle and thinner at either end. 

 

 

On draft performance I have referenced to you before the work @JGMcD2's work on this on this very forum. Then there is PFF (this was up to an including 2021) and ESPN (up to 2022 but going back as far as 2012.... though it breaks down for each year). They are all trying to do the same thing... find a way of putting a value on draft performance. But the overriding theme is they all consistently have the Bills as pretty strong performers. 2017 (which totally agreed was McDermott, not Beane) and 2018 are their two best drafts - White, Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Johnson have been 5 cornerstones just from two classes. 

 

As for counts for the teams you mention between 18 and 22 I have:

 

Chiefs - 1 (Creed Humphrey)

Eagles - 2 (Jalen Hurts [some might dispute, I don't] and Jordan Maitala)

Rams - 0

Bengals - 3 (Jessie Bates, Joe Burrow, Ja'marr Chase)

49ers - 3 (Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner)

 

And what do the final two on that list have in common? Multiple top 10 picks in that time. So while I think Beane is at the lower end he isn't a million miles below his competitors. 

 

 

 

Not to quibble, but Beane also had multiple top ten picks between 18-22.

[Billsfan1972]

Btw just saw the Ravens' drops on Sunday and while Jackson botched the last three minutes, some of those drops were egregious.  A few were not great passes, but since the press loves Lamar, blamed the receiver.

 

No doubt Gabe would be the surest handed receiver there.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Not to quibble, but Beane also had multiple top ten picks between 18-22.

 

He ended up with two. The Bills only earned one. He had to trade up twice to turn the Allen pick into a top 10 pick. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I mean we did sign Rapp, so I don't think its fair to say we "trusted 2 old safeties" as they did bring in more depth and help there and Rapp would start on several teams.  

 

Also, hard to fault any of Beanes decisions on the defense when after 4 weeks we were first in Interceptions, takeaways and sacks plus 2nd in points allowed.  This included being the only D that held the Miami offense in check all season.  

 

Injuries like you said are outside of his control, but even after being down those guys early, this defense still had only surrendered 11 points late into the 4th quarter while playing a fresher team in London.  So the depth and quality of the players on this team is a credit to Beane.  

 

I know you are not knocking Beane, just expanding on these comments.  

 

 

They brought better depth in behind them, that is spot on. But they were trusting their vet guys to start and it was a risk. Both 32 and coming off significant surgery. I don't think they are total liabilities by any means but they are not the ultimate get out of jail free card they have been at times in the past to bail the Bills out. They have lost a step and those who were against bringing them back have legitimate arguments to say that was a mistake. I actually don't think bringing Poyer back was plan A. I think both parties expected him to be gone. But his market wasn't as hot as he expected and it got down to a number the Bills could live with. It is to all extents and purposes a 1 year deal and they will look for a long term answer next spring.

 

Agree with your general take on defensive performance.

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yes he threw a perfect pass to where only Gabe could catch it and it landed like a pillow in his lap.  He wasn't fighting the DBfor possession (i.e. his hands on the ball).  Sorry I have higher standards.  Great pass and Gabe made the play. 

 

The dropped pass the announcer said immediately "Gabe wishes he had that one back".

 

 

sure you do.

 

anyway, that catch at the 3 was uncontested and landed right in Davis's "lap"?  lol that's messed up

 

you just gave yourself away with that obviously false statement.   rage on, High Standard Man!!

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. I don't know how much clearer I could be on that. 

 

Just double-checking.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Do I think Ed and Groot can continue at this pace? Yes I think they can - note CAN and not WILL. It is possible. Why? Because they have the talent to do it. I think Ed Oliver's raw productions numbers have undervalued his performance the past two years and have consistently said so on here. When the underlying analytics are as strong as they were eventually the numbers will follow. I also think last year he was dominant when healthy and less dominant when playing hurt. I don't see this as a sudden improvement - I see it as following on from that healthy spell he had in the middle of last season - particularly that Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit run. Groot I think there is a bit of a lower ceiling on, but he is a very high floor player and if he can hit his ceiling throughout the rest of the year he is certainly capable of being in the conversation too. 

 

I for one hope that you're correct, but I kind of view it oppositely.  To me Groot has the higher ceiling.  Oliver's had four seasons now to prove that he can be a consistent force.  He's had difficulty ever stringing more than three maybe four good games together, and that without all but disappearing for large portions of the seasons otherwise, much less 8 games much less a full season of even average consistency.  This season hangs in the balance as we're discussing this.  [fingers crossed]  I'd love to see Oliver turn into that beast that everyone was expecting when we drafted him.  Oliver's in his prime this season, which may be why he achieves that.  Not that it matters at this point, but Groot had a more impressive body of work in college, he played up against much bigger opponents.  That doesn't apply so much to Oliver now, but it might to Groot.  

 

Rousseau, like Davis and Edmunds, and to a lesser extent a few other players, is only 23 and in fact just turned 23 several months ago.  

 

I can see either blossoming into elite players, but I wouldn't put money on Oliver doing it at this point.  IMO he's simply trying to show that he deserved his contract and has come out of the gates swinging.  We'll see whether he holds up, but if he does, let's not forget, it's taken him 5 seasons.  The player that he's been often compared to, Aaron Donald, was already elite as a rookie.  

 

Groot needs to stay healthy.  These naggers are looking like a possible issue.  Obviously I hope that both blossom into terrors.  It would be refreshing.  I'd also like to see Beane quit drafting 21 year olds.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

An yes, if they maintain their play level then we still have the chance to go into the playoffs with the minimum 4 elite level guys you need. I said that in my very first post on in this discussion. We have Josh, Stef, Von who is a question mark coming back and Ed and Groot who are the two who could possibly step up into that conversation. If two of the three defensive guys were to play at that proper elite level then yes the Bills can still win a Superbowl. But two guys who have proven themselves capable of that top end consistency are gone for the year. So the chances are reduced because you are now relying on less proven commodities. I don't know why you needed to ask that my views on it are completely clear in previous posts.  

 

Clarification my friend.   

 

You have a tendency to hedge and use a lot of 'if's', 'could's", and other potential type of descriptors.  I try to nail down the expectation.  It's easy to say this, that, or something else might/could happen, but if not, etc.  It's a lot different to state one's position firmly.  

 

Even above, you say ...

 

Quote

But two guys who have proven themselves capable of that top end consistency are gone for the year.

 

Presumably you mean Milano and Jones.  Jones has never even sniffed "elite" until the past few games.  The likelihood that he would have finished the season shattering anything that he's ever accomplished in a season, and at the age of 32, is highly unlikely.  So your statement is a reach insofar as Jones goes and IMO everyone's massively overreacting to his loss.  He posted a huge game against Howell @ the Skins, but the rest has hardly been anywhere close to that "elite" status.  

 

Milano, as you realize, I said prior to the season beginning, and for reasons that we both disagree on, we'd be screwed if he got injured for any length of time.  Well, ...  

 

I pointed out elsewhere recently that even to date with him in, our rushing D is low-end, ranked 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed.  That's unlikely to improve significantly.  

 

but if Ed holds out this level of play and Groot does as well, IMO we're much better off on the DL and we'll finally have two more elite players that Milano was, yet Jones was not.  A two-fer if you will.  LOL  And yes, I'm joking.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Yes. He has drafted a lot of starters and not enough elite difference makers. That is my take on Brandon Beane. It has been since before you turned up here. And yes, I'd give him the chance of the current guys and one more draft class a year of being on the field before I'd really consider moving on. I do think there is pressure on him to unearth a true difference maker, but equally he is good at his job. I wouldn't give someone who is bad at their job 8 years but Beane isn't bad at his job. He is good at it, but could still be better. The overall talent of this roster is top half dozen or so in the NFL but is probably a bit thicker in the middle and thinner at either end. 

 

Yes, you've said that many times, that first sentence.  As to the rest, we've also discussed that many times.  I fail to see how a GM can be considered above-average with the drafting track record that Beane has.  You do not.  Free-Agency is much easier since it involves established players, good GMs can pluck elite players in teh draft better than their counterparts IMO.  I don't think that there's a lot of conventional NFL wisdom that speaks to the contrary however.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

On draft performance I have referenced to you before the work @JGMcD2's work on this on this very forum. Then there is PFF (this was up to an including 2021) and ESPN (up to 2022 but going back as far as 2012.... though it breaks down for each year). They are all trying to do the same thing... find a way of putting a value on draft performance. But the overriding theme is they all consistently have the Bills as pretty strong performers. 2017 (which totally agreed was McDermott, not Beane) and 2018 are their two best drafts - White, Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Johnson have been 5 cornerstones just from two classes. 

 

I spent a bunch of time looking for that but could never find it.  You provided no link, so I have nothing to look at.  

 

As to the rest, you and I were specifically talking about "elite players" per your insistence that "a team needs 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl."  That's what our discussion was pertaining to.  So let's stick to that.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

As for counts for the teams you mention between 18 and 22 I have:

 

Chiefs - 1 (Creed Humphrey)

Eagles - 2 (Jalen Hurts [some might dispute, I don't] and Jordan Maitala)

Rams - 0

Bengals - 3 (Jessie Bates, Joe Burrow, Ja'marr Chase)

49ers - 3 (Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner)

 

I'm not talking about specific GMs, but the teams that are elite.  

 

KC's a bit of an odd example because they're riding the elite player performances of Jones & Kelce, but which also challenges your 4-5 elite players theory.  

As to the Eagles, I think you should include Jalen Carter who's already looking the part and playing better than any defensive player in his rookie season than anyone that Beane's ever drafted.  I mean we're talking about Oliver coming into his own five seasons in, and Groot three seasons in.  Carter's performing to top levels as a rookie.  Also, Davonta Smith who's playing better than any offensive skill position player Beane's ever drafted.  

 

The Rams, their rookie WR is also playing better than any offensive skill position player that Beane's ever drafted, but agree, but also I probably shouldn't have included them.  They were a one-year wonder that overachieved one season, but have gone 26-28 so far in their bookend seasons.  

 

Bengals:  Burrow comps with Allen as does Mahomes, But that's still more than Beane's zero, and while not elite, it should be pointed out that Higgins is also better than any offensive skill positon player that Beane's ever drafted.  

 

As to the Niners, three is also more than zero, and let's not forget Purdy, the highest rated QB in the league right now by a margin, 3rd in TD% ahead of Allen, 2nd in Compl. % right behind Allen, and 1st in Success Rate.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

And what do the final two on that list have in common? Multiple top 10 picks in that time. So while I think Beane is at the lower end he isn't a million miles below his competitors. 

 

You're deviating from the point, to start, and B, Beane could very easily have picked Creed Humphrey over Basham in round 2. 

 

Purdy was plucked by the Niners in round 7 as was Mailata for the Eagles.  

 

Hurts was a 2nd-rounder just before AJE.  

 

Higgins was a 2nd-rounder. 

 

Samuel was a 2nd-rounder, Warner a 3rd-rounder.  

 

So your theory above holds little if any water.  

 

At the end of the day, all of those GMs have picked better in their drafts for impact players and elite players than Beane has, apart from the QBs which all have done.  It's not difficult to be zero.  If all of our opponents this season score zero, we'll finish 15-2 and finally win that elusive Lombardi.  

 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Go back a few weeks ago and most people were still saying we missed on AJE...yet here he is playing at a high level finally getting some chances to get real reps and get out from being buried.  For all we know, as the season goes on Elam may do just the same as she showed plenty of potential as a rookie last year and then got buried behind some pretty good corners in Tre, Benford, and Dane coming into this season as he still had some stuff to work on.  

 

 

Yes good point on Epenesa.    There were actually people advocating dumping Epenesa to keep Boogie Basham.    Elam is a talented player and progress is not always linear.

[Billsfan1972]

12 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

sure you do.

 

anyway, that catch at the 3 was uncontested and landed right in Davis's "lap"?  lol that's messed up

 

you just gave yourself away with that obviously false statement.   rage on, High Standard Man!!

Yes he jumped for the ball and caught it.  Wow a professional NFL WR paid $milions catching a ball.  I look at catches in traffic, where one takes a hard hit, fights the defender and makes the catch, reaches across his body and catches a badly thrown ball or picks it off prior to hitting the ground (i.e. Jax 3rd down conversion that McD challenged). 

 

Catching a timing sideline pass going out of bounds is what they practice every day.

 

Those were all perfect passes by Allen and Gabe made the catch.  Good for him (+ one drop).

Edited October 11, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes good point on Epenesa.    There were actually people advocating dumping Epenesa to keep Boogie Basham.    Elam is a talented player and progress is not always linear.

 

Yea absolutely fair. The light for AJE went on mid 3rd season althought the Bills deserve some responsibility for that in that his first season was lost to a body transformation and then an adjustment to his play style. 

 

Equally they are asking Elam to basically change his game to fit their scheme.

 

Boogie Basham meanwhile is bad at football.

[colin]

21 hours ago, Tisker A Tasker said:

Dropping passes is what happens when you're sleepy.

 

so are injuries.

 

i read something -- a lack of sleep is like a 200+% increase factor for injuries.

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Just double-checking.  

 

 

 

I for one hope that you're correct, but I kind of view it oppositely.  To me Groot has the higher ceiling.  Oliver's had four seasons now to prove that he can be a consistent force.  He's had difficulty ever stringing more than three maybe four good games together, and that without all but disappearing for large portions of the seasons otherwise, much less 8 games much less a full season of even average consistency.  This season hangs in the balance as we're discussing this.  [fingers crossed]  I'd love to see Oliver turn into that beast that everyone was expecting when we drafted him.  Oliver's in his prime this season, which may be why he achieves that.  Not that it matters at this point, but Groot had a more impressive body of work in college, he played up against much bigger opponents.  That doesn't apply so much to Oliver now, but it might to Groot.  

 

Ed Oliver was a BEAST in college. Thinking otherwise means you never watched him. The level of competition point is fair, Groot played in the SEC but Ed was dominant against his competition. While I recognise his career has had some inconsistency - good as a rookie, disappointing but playing out of position as a 2nd year player, up and down year 3.... he was very consistent when he was healthy last year though. Since the start of last season whenever Ed Oliver has been healthy he has been a game wrecker. By the end of last season he was held together by sticky tape.

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

You have a tendency to hedge and use a lot of 'if's', 'could's", and other potential type of descriptors.  I try to nail down the expectation.  It's easy to say this, that, or something else might/could happen, but if not, etc.  It's a lot different to state one's position firmly.  

 

 

I don't think that is hedging I think it is being adult about it and recognising there are a range of possible outcomes. If you want a prediction - fine - then so long as he stays healthy I think by the end of the year Ed O will be right on the cusp and the conversation will be "he has had an elite season but is one season enough to say he is an elite player?" and Groot I think will have the best production numbers of his career in terms of pressures and sacks but won't be in the elite level conversation just yet.  

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Presumably you mean Milano and Jones.  Jones has never even sniffed "elite" until the past few games.  The likelihood that he would have finished the season shattering anything that he's ever accomplished in a season, and at the age of 32, is highly unlikely.  So your statement is a reach insofar as Jones goes and IMO everyone's massively overreacting to his loss.  He posted a huge game against Howell @ the Skins, but the rest has hardly been anywhere close to that "elite" status.  

 

Milano, as you realize, I said prior to the season beginning, and for reasons that we both disagree on, we'd be screwed if he got injured for any length of time.  Well, ...  

 

I pointed out elsewhere recently that even to date with him in, our rushing D is low-end, ranked 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed.  That's unlikely to improve significantly.  

 

but if Ed holds out this level of play and Groot does as well, IMO we're much better off on the DL and we'll finally have two more elite players that Milano was, yet Jones was not.  A two-fer if you will.  LOL  And yes, I'm joking.  

 

No - Milano and White. And we didn't disagree at all on Milano pre-season. You keep accusing me of being one of the "linebacker will be alright" crowd I wasn't. I was in the "MLB is a liability on this team" crowd. I'm just big enough to say through 5 games Bernard has absolutely proved me wrong. And even on Sunday after Milano went down he was very good - ESPECIALLY against the run. I think WILL linebacker is very likely a weakness on this team now unless Williams can really get going quickly. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yes, you've said that many times, that first sentence.  As to the rest, we've also discussed that many times.  I fail to see how a GM can be considered above-average with the drafting track record that Beane has.  You do not.  Free-Agency is much easier since it involves established players, good GMs can pluck elite players in teh draft better than their counterparts IMO.  I don't think that there's a lot of conventional NFL wisdom that speaks to the contrary however.  

 

Because Beane's draft record is better than average overall. Not many busts in 6 drafts. Not enough elite players though, on that we agree. You have to factor in stars, but drafting isn't only about stars. It is about having enough guys that can be solid starters in the NFL and enough people who can play roles to fill out your roster and he has been above average at finding both of those. A tick below in finding stars. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

As to the rest, you and I were specifically talking about "elite players" per your insistence that "a team needs 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl."  That's what our discussion was pertaining to.  So let's stick to that.  

 

I am sticking to that but that isn't the only way to judge a GM.

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I'm not talking about specific GMs, but the teams that are elite.  

 

KC's a bit of an odd example because they're riding the elite player performances of Jones & Kelce, but which also challenges your 4-5 elite players theory.  

 

Mahomes, Jones, Kelce (all drafted by Dorsey, though Mahomes was Veach in all but name) Humphrey and Joe Thuney who they signed as a FA. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

As to the Eagles, I think you should include Jalen Carter who's already looking the part and playing better than any defensive player in his rookie season than anyone that Beane's ever drafted.  I mean we're talking about Oliver coming into his own five seasons in, and Groot three seasons in.  Carter's performing to top levels as a rookie.  Also, Davonta Smith who's playing better than any offensive skill position player Beane's ever drafted.  

 

Carter has been very good but again I'm not calling a player elite based on 5 games. I think he is a stud though and by the end of the year we may well be talking about him as elite. Smith is a good WR2. He is really a 1B. But the best receiver on that team, as the best receiver on this team, came via trade. AJ Brown is elite. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

The Rams, their rookie WR is also playing better than any offensive skill position player that Beane's ever drafted, but agree, but also I probably shouldn't have included them.  They were a one-year wonder that overachieved one season, but have gone 26-28 so far in their bookend seasons.  

 

And they did not build their team through the draft basically AT ALL. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Bengals:  Burrow comps with Allen as does Mahomes, But that's still more than Beane's zero, and while not elite, it should be pointed out that Higgins is also better than any offensive skill positon player that Beane's ever drafted.  

 

Higgins like Smith is a 1B. I was a bit fan of him coming out. He's the guy I'd have taken if we didn't trade for Diggs. I think he will prove a good #1 somewhere next year but I don't think he is elite. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

As to the Niners, three is also more than zero, and let's not forget Purdy, the highest rated QB in the league right now by a margin, 3rd in TD% ahead of Allen, 2nd in Compl. % right behind Allen, and 1st in Success Rate.  

 

When I watch Brock Purdy I don't see an elite QB. I think he is good, but at the moment I think the elite is Kyle's offense not Brock Purdy. 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

 

You're deviating from the point, to start, and B, Beane could very easily have picked Creed Humphrey over Basham in round 2. 

 

At the end of the day, all of those GMs have picked better in their drafts for impact players and elite players than Beane has, apart from the QBs which all have done.  It's not difficult to be zero.  If all of our opponents this season score zero, we'll finish 15-2 and finally win that elusive Lombardi.  

 

Beane could have drafted elite players outside round 1. No argument there. His second round picks in particular haven't been great. I mean all of them haven't. I gave you the numbers. Some have, some haven't. But it is by 1 or 2 players. Beane needs another major hit soon though. I completely agree. 

 

I think what this comes down to is you'd be much more trigger happy in terms of firings than I would. That is your prerogative. I do think there is some level of pressure on Beane to come up with more true elite difference makers. Stef, Matt and Tre are all in their late 20s. Tre is now off a second bad injury. Matt is going to be coming off one too. He needs an Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, O'Cyrus Torrence, Terell Bernard to really hit. Otherwise in 2/3 years we might be looking and saying this team is Josh and not much else. 

[Billsfan1972]

What do all these comments have to do with 4 dropped passes, which was the Thread.  

 

Not even reading them, but the last 3-4 pages and nary a mention.

 

I keep clicking on expecting to see a comment on them and it is I think well thought out responses and a # of other things, but not the passes dropped.

 

BTW I don't think officially any were called drops.  The broadcast didn't show replays of the Knox drop (was it one or just great coverage).  The Cook one was not an easy pass and again maybe one replay, and certainly catchable.  The Gabe one was a very easy pass to catch imo and right in his hands and lead him perfectly.  

 

Start a new thread. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

What do all these comments have to do with 4 dropped passes, which was the Thread.  

 

Not even reading them, but the last 3-4 pages and nary a mention.

 

I keep clicking on expecting to see a comment on them and it is I think well thought out responses and a # of other things, but not the passes dropped.

 

BTW I don't think officially any were called drops.  The broadcast didn't show replays of the Knox drop (was it one or just great coverage).  The Cook one was not an easy pass and again maybe one replay, and certainly catchable.  The Gabe one was a very easy pass to catch imo and right in his hands and lead him perfectly.  

 

Start a new thread. 

 

You guys ran out of dumb Gabe Davis takes so people moved on...

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Ed Oliver was a BEAST in college. Thinking otherwise means you never watched him. The level of competition point is fair, Groot played in the SEC but Ed was dominant against his competition. While I recognise his career has had some inconsistency - good as a rookie, disappointing but playing out of position as a 2nd year player, up and down year 3.... he was very consistent when he was healthy last year though. Since the start of last season whenever Ed Oliver has been healthy he has been a game wrecker. By the end of last season he was held together by sticky tape.

 

In Oliver's all-important junior season he loaded up his stats on East Carolina, Rice, and Navy, not one team of which had good offense or more than 3 wins.  

 

Groot played in the ACC, not the SEC.  He was at Miami for one season after a red-shirt rookie year.  He was an enigma there.  

 

None of that is important, we're all hoping that he finally, but after four seasons, turns into that "beast" that everyone claimed would mimic Donald.  I'll take 75% of Donald.  LOL  Where we differ is in the likelihood of that happening.  We'll see, hopefully he does.  

 

Groot, as with you, IMO he'll be fine, but again, last season he also started quickly.  Last season in his first four games he started with 4 Sacks, 5 TFLs, and 6 QBHits.  This season through four games he's logged 3 Sacks, 4 TFLs, and 4 QBHits, lest we forget that many said the same thing about him at this time last season.  So we'll see.  

 

Here's the thing that most people do not take into account.  Many players go in streaks.  As you talked about elite players, they typically show up all the time with perhaps a bad game or two, sometimes three throughout the season.  But other players often put up only 3, 4, 5, or 6 good games a season.  Sometimes those games are up front, and given that we're a team that typically comes out of the gates swinging when the season begins, almost as if our September record dictates whether or not we go to the Super Bowl.  I'm being partially facetious BTW.  

 

The point is that some players simply run that streak early on.  Not just on our team, but throughout the league.  It's bad form to extrapolate stats, particularly in the case of a player like Jones, from his first quarter, throughout the season when in 9 other seasons he's never come close to doing anything like that.  At 32 it's highly unlikely that the 10th time's the charm.  He's never even made a Pro-Bowl but we all had him penciled in as playing to that level.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think that is hedging I think it is being adult about it and recognising there are a range of possible outcomes. If you want a prediction - fine - then so long as he stays healthy I think by the end of the year Ed O will be right on the cusp and the conversation will be "he has had an elite season but is one season enough to say he is an elite player?" and Groot I think will have the best production numbers of his career in terms of pressures and sacks but won't be in the elite level conversation just yet.  

 

Difference of opinion then on that first part.  Which is fine.  Please don't take any of this personally.  Please don't.   

 

We'll see on the rest.   Obviously we'd both love for that to happen.  I simply look at decades of NFL history in terms of individual performance, and law-of-averages kind of stuff, which grounds me in my optimism.  You are clearly very bullish on that occuring per above and prior posts, whereas I am very cautiously optimistic, and having been burned numerous times in the past.  

 

For example, everyone's talking about how much better our defense is under McD than under Frazier.  But here are some facts that no one wants to hear to the contrary.  

 

We've allowed an average of 65 more YPG and fewer points (61) v. (80).  Our rushing D has collapsed, and that was even before our injuries this week.  Last season we allowed 10 rushing TDs all season, 4.3 YPC, and 104.6 YPG.  This season to date we've already allowed 4 rushing TDs, we've allowed 5.8 YPC, and 134.0 YPG.  Even before this week we allowed 118.5 YPG on 6.3 YPC.  

 

When I mention the law-of-averages, consider, we're presently on pace for 71 Sacks, 98 TFLs, and 142 QBHits.  Those would have ranked first across the board by last season's measures, same for the year prior.  

 

So we need to ask ourselves in the process of analysis, is that likely to continue.  Have you read the pieces about how Jax picked our pass-rush apart and [via great coaching not apparent on our side, not sure how a flight affects that] after having reviewed it?  Sure, we got 5 sacks and plenty of pressure, but Jax adapted to it according to multiple reports, and Lawrence had a great day.  

 

Instead of getting giddy, I ask myself, is our record-setting defensive pace likely to continue?  Not saying impossible, but likely.  IMO, no.  Again, that's MO, but based upon decades of doing football analytics.  IOW, I was doing "metrics" before metrics was even a thing.  

 

What happens is that the law-of-averages takes over.  The reasons why that pace isn't likely to be sustained are several, but injuries can easily be one of them.  But consider, and again, we don't have to agree, but simply consider, that perhaps the reasons for our injuries are at least in part due to the overall aggressive style of play that we're deploying here.  I won't go into details as these posts are long enough, but think generally of the methods employed to get our players to be so crazy swarming.  As I see it, it's quite possible and even likely that our swarming aggressive style of pass defense has contributed to our injuries.  Not saying all, like White, but others.  And perhaps not even on a given play, but perhaps simply the greater than normal wear-n-tear during a game, but also as the season rolls on.  

 

Food for thought there.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

No - Milano and White. And we didn't disagree at all on Milano pre-season. You keep accusing me of being one of the "linebacker will be alright" crowd I wasn't. I was in the "MLB is a liability on this team" crowd. I'm just big enough to say through 5 games Bernard has absolutely proved me wrong. And even on Sunday after Milano went down he was very good - ESPECIALLY against the run. I think WILL linebacker is very likely a weakness on this team now unless Williams can really get going quickly. 

 

OK, this is where you and I break.  Agree on Milano and the LBs, not sure why you think I'm saying the opposite.  If I did then I misspoke.  Don't read too much into everything.  

 

Btu on the "ESPECIALLY against the run," then why is our run D notably worse?  ... and again, even before the injuries on Sunday, many of which occurred well after Etienne was already putting a hurting on us.  

 

As we've discussed, with the exception now of your statements about our run D, above, IMO we now see teams run more UTM on us for two reasons.  First, Milano's out and he's played Middle just as much as Bernard has, perhaps simply not officially on the depth chart, but he's been lined up in a 2 LB set opposite whomever's been next to him, and not always Bernard either, frequently.  

 

But secondly, because it appears that teams have started to figure out our "new" defense under McD.  

 

As to White, he hasn't been a factor since early last season, so I'm not sure why his injury all of a sudden changes our D as it's been for most of last season at all.  And he sucked when he got back anyway.  We've been through this, you continue to ignore it.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Because Beane's draft record is better than average overall. Not many busts in 6 drafts. Not enough elite players though, on that we agree. You have to factor in stars, but drafting isn't only about stars. It is about having enough guys that can be solid starters in the NFL and enough people who can play roles to fill out your roster and he has been above average at finding both of those. A tick below in finding stars. 

 

Well, in applying your standard, and per this thread, we need 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl.  So using that standard, namely yours, after his very first draft pick, Allen, he's drafted exactly zero elite players, which by your standard would seem to indicate that he's not cutting the mustard here.  

 

A team full of "non-bust players" isn't necessarily a good team.  The goal isn't to draft non-busts, it's to draft impact/elite players as even you imply.  Beane has not done that.  We can continue to debate as to whether or not after 6 drafts that makes him a good GM or not, but IMO yours is an uphill argument given that.  

 

Again, it's OK to disagree.  Absolutely nothing that you or I discuss matters in terms of what actually happens.    

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I am sticking to that but that isn't the only way to judge a GM.

Mahomes, Jones, Kelce (all drafted by Dorsey, though Mahomes was Veach in all but name) Humphrey and Joe Thuney who they signed as a FA. 

 

Carter has been very good but again I'm not calling a player elite based on 5 games. I think he is a stud though and by the end of the year we may well be talking about him as elite. Smith is a good WR2. He is really a 1B. But the best receiver on that team, as the best receiver on this team, came via trade. AJ Brown is elite. 

 

When I watch Brock Purdy I don't see an elite QB. I think he is good, but at the moment I think the elite is Kyle's offense not Brock Purdy. 

 

You're missing the point on players like Carter and Purdy.  The point is that those players are contributing immediately, as rookies, or have and continue to in Purdy's case.  Their teams and fans aren't saying five seasons in, this is finally the season that so-and-so breaks out.  

 

That's partly why I criticize Beane far too often taking 21-year olds in the drafts, they're not ready to play at a high level.  He should know this.  Not saying that's the only reason, but again, the primary point here is that those draft picks are contributing heavily, as in making significant impacts, in their first seasons and if not as rookies, then in their second seasons.  

Here, we talk about hoping that Oliver isn't once again inconsistent in his 5th season, or Rousseau in his third.  Talking about Jones "finally breaking out" (my words) if that's even true, in his 10th, yet as a free agent.  

 

That's where Beane is falling short and it's hardly a minor issue.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Beane could have drafted elite players outside round 1. No argument there. His second round picks in particular haven't been great. I mean all of them haven't. I gave you the numbers. Some have, some haven't. But it is by 1 or 2 players. Beane needs another major hit soon though. I completely agree. 

 

I think what this comes down to is you'd be much more trigger happy in terms of firings than I would. That is your prerogative. I do think there is some level of pressure on Beane to come up with more true elite difference makers. Stef, Matt and Tre are all in their late 20s. Tre is now off a second bad injury. Matt is going to be coming off one too. He needs an Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, O'Cyrus Torrence, Terell Bernard to really hit. Otherwise in 2/3 years we might be looking and saying this team is Josh and not much else. 

 

Yeah, that's pretty much where we disagree.  Our goals are the same as fans.  

 

But Stef was an expensive free agent.  Not difficult to figure that he'd be good, particularly for that price, which he then owes.  

 

Matt wasn't Beane's pick.  Neither was Tre, so I leave them out of the Beane conversation.  

 

Completely agree with you in principle on that bolded part.  But again, where we do not view things similarly, which is fine, is in that the others that I've mentioned play well essentially from "day one."  Not literally, but more proverbially, out of the gate in their rookie seasons as it were.  

 

Whereas Oliver's in his 5th season and we're simply hoping for 2nd-round performance from a trade-up 1st.  He was a trade-up, right?  I forget.  But either way, in his fifth season.  Rousseau in his 3rd.  AJE in his 4th.  

 

Cook's a 2-down RB and will never be anything else.  Torrence already appears to be a monster, but it's taken Beane 6 drafts to land one OL-man like that.  Bernard still has limitations and we'll see how that plays out in his second season.  

 

But that's the primary difference, while our biggest competitors get solid play from their impact/elite players from their rookie seasons or early in their second seasons, we're hoping that our prospects for impact play materialize in Beane's selections 3rd, 4th, and 5th seasons.  

 

And again, disagreement is fine.  This is a discussion forum.  At the end of the day we both and all hope that the team sets records both offensively and defensively, and that we're all screaming our lungs out following a Super Bowl victory come February.  

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

What do all these comments have to do with 4 dropped passes, which was the Thread.  

 

Not even reading them, but the last 3-4 pages and nary a mention.

 

How's our dome coming along?  

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

BTW I don't think officially any were called drops.  The broadcast didn't show replays of the Knox drop (was it one or just great coverage).  The Cook one was not an easy pass and again maybe one replay, and certainly catchable.  The Gabe one was a very easy pass to catch imo and right in his hands and lead him perfectly.  

 

Officially there are 4 drops credited in this game - 1 each to Diggs (presumably the back shoulder along the sideline), Cook, Davis, and Knox. 4 drops on 40 attempts... not gonna win a lot of games with a 10% overall drop percentage.

 

Knox is back to a rookie-level drop percentage of 15.8%... For all the talk about Kincaid, he has been by far the biggest disappointment on offense IMO.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes good point on Epenesa.    There were actually people advocating dumping Epenesa to keep Boogie Basham.    Elam is a talented player and progress is not always linear.

 

Yup, and those people were crazy iMO for suggesting it...I mean AJE quietly had 6.5 sacks last year playing part time and for a DC allergic to creating sacks on the QB.

 

Speaking of Boogie...doesnt seem like he is doing much with NYG either...we clearly made the right choice

[GunnerBill]

21 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Groot played in the ACC, not the SEC.  He was at Miami for one season after a red-shirt rookie year.  He was an enigma there.  

 

For example, everyone's talking about how much better our defense is under McD than under Frazier.  But here are some facts that no one wants to hear to the contrary.  

 

Btu on the "ESPECIALLY against the run," then why is our run D notably worse?  ... and again, even before the injuries on Sunday, many of which occurred well after Etienne was already putting a hurting on us.  

Here, we talk about hoping that Oliver isn't once again inconsistent in his 5th season, or Rousseau in his third.  Talking about Jones "finally breaking out" (my words) if that's even true, in his 10th, yet as a free agent.  

 

Whereas Oliver's in his 5th season and we're simply hoping for 2nd-round performance from a trade-up 1st.  He was a trade-up, right?  I forget.  But either way, in his fifth season.  Rousseau in his 3rd.  AJE in his 4th.  

 

 

I didn't quote you whole post because there is a lot in there that is either done to death and it is just opinion v opinion and you gotta pay your money and take your choice and some stuff (mainly the comparison between the McD defense and Frazier defense) where actually I share many of your views.... but just a few things to come back on:

 

1. Of course you are right on Groot. My mistake. My head always goes to the SEC with the 'canes and I always need to remind myself they are not.

2. I am not one of the people who has been banging that drum.

3. The Jet game is was just one big run really and while I accept Bernard was at fault for that one long run he was at fault in alignment and that was just lack of time on task over the summer. On Sunday the Jags didn't beat us UTM (as you like to say) they beat us by running at weak edges. Neither Floyd nor AJE are naturally brilliant run defenders despite both having good games as pass rushers (that is an area we really miss Groot or Shaq's ability to play early downs) and we had backup corners. They attacked what were known weaknesses. Bernard still had a really good game as a run defender. There are problems with the run defense, they are not really Bernard problems though. 

4. I suppose on Ed what I say is this might be a breakout in terms of pure production numbers but in terms of performance he has already broken out. It is just he is getting the numbers his performances the past two seasons have deserved. He has been one of the best penetrating defensive tackles in the NFL the past two seasons. Rousseau has been on a steady incline. He was solid as a rookie. Good last year and looks so far like he has taken another step. Jones isn't breaking out, Jones was really good for us last year and really good in Tennessee earlier in his career (and FWIW I agree his stats at the start of this season would have been unlikely to keep on at that pace). 

5. Ed was not a trade up. He was selected at #9 overall which was out original pick after going 6-10 in 2018.

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

3. The Jet game is was just one big run really and while I accept Bernard was at fault for that one long run he was at fault in alignment and that was just lack of time on task over the summer. On Sunday the Jags didn't beat us UTM (as you like to say) they beat us by running at weak edges. Neither Floyd nor AJE are naturally brilliant run defenders despite both having good games as pass rushers (that is an area we really miss Groot or Shaq's ability to play early downs) and we had backup corners. They attacked what were known weaknesses. Bernard still had a really good game as a run defender. There are problems with the run defense, they are not really Bernard problems though. 

 

Agree with your entire post for the most part.  Particularly that we've covered just about everything.  LOL  

 

On this point however, also keep in mind, and you know this so simply preaching to the choir presumably, but it typically takes 5 or 6 games, and often until a capable opposing coordinator faces a team with a new HC or coordinator, to figure out and possible "solve" their offensive or defensive schemes.  It's happened time and time again over the years.  I pointed out in another thread just now how that's likely why Daboll's Giants started 6-1 and 7-2 last season but have gone 4-10 since.  

 

IMO that's what happened on Sunday.  Press Taylor (and Pederson) figured out our D and as you say, took advantage of its weaknesses.  The problem is that the teams that generally will do that, are the ones that we need to be able to beat to win a championship.  

 

Teams with good offenses and competent OCs will now use Sunday's video and info to gameplan against us.  

 

We'll see how it shakes out.  Speaking of Daboll's Giants, LOL, the nice thing for us is that we should be able to beat them even if Josh didn't suit up an Kyle took his place.  Home game for us, hopefully Kyle ends up playing the second half, or most of it.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agree with your entire post for the most part.  Particularly that we've covered just about everything.  LOL  

 

On this point however, also keep in mind, and you know this so simply preaching to the choir presumably, but it typically takes 5 or 6 games, and often until a capable opposing coordinator faces a team with a new HC or coordinator, to figure out and possible "solve" their offensive or defensive schemes.  It's happened time and time again over the years.  I pointed out in another thread just now how that's likely why Daboll's Giants started 6-1 and 7-2 last season but have gone 4-10 since.  

 

IMO that's what happened on Sunday.  Press Taylor (and Pederson) figured out our D and as you say, took advantage of its weaknesses.  The problem is that the teams that generally will do that, are the ones that we need to be able to beat to win a championship.  

 

Teams with good offenses and competent OCs will now use Sunday's video and info to gameplan against us.  

 

We'll see how it shakes out.  Speaking of Daboll's Giants, LOL, the nice thing for us is that we should be able to beat them even if Josh didn't suit up an Kyle took his place.  Home game for us, hopefully Kyle ends up playing the second half, or most of it.  

 

 

 

I definitely think it is is true that teams will look at some of McDermott's playcalling as it differs to Leslie - especially up front - and adjust.   But the Bills getting some critical guys back - especially on the edge up front should avoid some of what we saw Sunday. Similarly on offense the Jags had seen us playing three weeks worth of dink and dunk against zone and were determined to take that away and Dorsey had no counter punch. There will be tests to come for both sides of the ball. 

[PBF81]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I definitely think it is is true that teams will look at some of McDermott's playcalling as it differs to Leslie - especially up front - and adjust.   But the Bills getting some critical guys back - especially on the edge up front should avoid some of what we saw Sunday. Similarly on offense the Jags had seen us playing three weeks worth of dink and dunk against zone and were determined to take that away and Dorsey had no counter punch. There will be tests to come for both sides of the ball. 

 

This week will be a good game to pull ourselves together and retrack.  Along with Howell, Jones was the most sacked QB in the league.  It's my understanding that he's not playing, but there's a reason for the sacks besides simply Jones, so even with Taylor, or whomever they're starting if not him, and given our offense against their low-end passing defense we should be fine.  

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

We scored 7 points for 75% of the game. It sucked offensively. The funniest thing is fans here probably would look at Lamar Jackson’s stats last game and think he sucked and could care less that he had several huge drops as well.

 

allen wasn’t close to the main problem. But that was a dud game. He will bounce back and have a monster game this week. But that was a bad game.

[CincyBillsFan]

49 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

We scored 7 points for 75% of the game. It sucked offensively. The funniest thing is fans here probably would look at Lamar Jackson’s stats last game and think he sucked and could care less that he had several huge drops as well.

 

allen wasn’t close to the main problem. But that was a dud game. He will bounce back and have a monster game this week. But that was a bad game.

I have enough to worry about then to dwell on Lamar Jackson's receivers dropping his passes.  Couldn't care less. I'll eave that to folks on the Ravens board to ponder.

 

I disagree with you about Allen's game. By every statistical & expert evaluation I've seen he had a very good to great game.  And my own eyes on watching the game confirm this.  What we saw Sunday was a great example of the fact that football is a TEAM game. 

 

IMO the most concerning thing to me was that even though Allen played very well the offense could not get on track until late in the game.  I'm hoping and confident that this was a one off in which a jet lagged team played poorly against a rested team.  It would be like if 80% of your players were suffering from the flu on game day versus a team completely healthy.

 

 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I have enough to worry about then to dwell on Lamar Jackson's receivers dropping his passes.  Couldn't care less. I'll eave that to folks on the Ravens board to ponder.

 

I disagree with you about Allen's game. By every statistical & expert evaluation I've seen he had a very good to great game.  And my own eyes on watching the game confirm this.  What we saw Sunday was a great example of the fact that football is a TEAM game. 

 

IMO the most concerning thing to me was that even though Allen played very well the offense could not get on track until late in the game.  I'm hoping and confident that this was a one off in which a jet lagged team played poorly against a rested team.  It would be like if 80% of your players were suffering from the flu on game day versus a team completely healthy.

 

 

 

 

Agree to disagree and not saying it’s the majority of Allen’s fault. But our defense with a million injuries gave up 11 points. Zero reason why an offense led by a top 3 qb should not win the game. 
 

raise the expectation. Allen would tell you the same thing. I know you aren’t allow to ever question Allen (again, not close to the main issue) but that was not a good offensive display.

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Agree to disagree and not saying it’s the majority of Allen’s fault. But our defense with a million injuries gave up 11 points. Zero reason why an offense led by a top 3 qb should not win the game. 
 

raise the expectation. Allen would tell you the same thing. I know you aren’t allow to ever question Allen (again, not close to the main issue) but that was not a good offensive display.

11 points would have won the game

 

unfortunately we gave up 25

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Agree to disagree and not saying it’s the majority of Allen’s fault. But our defense with a million injuries gave up 11 points. Zero reason why an offense led by a top 3 qb should not win the game. 
 

raise the expectation. Allen would tell you the same thing. I know you aren’t allow to ever question Allen (again, not close to the main issue) but that was not a good offensive display.

It was Dorsey and lousy offensive play calling very little to do with Josh Allen.  Dropped passes hurt too, but generally the useless run calls and dinks and dunks when it was obvious that there were plays down the field to be made was the downfall.

 

Oh and the defense giving up 500 yards, and the offense never having the ball in good field position didn't help either.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Agree to disagree and not saying it’s the majority of Allen’s fault. But our defense with a million injuries gave up 11 points. Zero reason why an offense led by a top 3 qb should not win the game. 
 

raise the expectation. Allen would tell you the same thing. I know you aren’t allow to ever question Allen (again, not close to the main issue) but that was not a good offensive display.

Why whenever we push back on what we believe is an unfair and inaccurate criticism of Allen you people throw out the old "I know you aren’t allowed to ever question Allen" canard?  It gets old especially given that when on those rare occasions that Allen has a truly bad game, like week one this season, we are appropriately critical.

 

The fact remains that the overwhelming majority of objective evidence shows that Allen played very well on Sunday while the offense overall did not.  I suspect that's the topic of interest to most Bills fan.  Not trying to act like Allen's play wasn't anything but outstanding against Jacksonville. 

 

This is why IMO the culprit here is the impact of jet lag on the players.  Allen who is without doubt a top 3 QB plays well but the offense still flounders.  Looking at the defense you can see the same strange outcome.  The defense played well at times but was woeful on 3rd down at the most critical moments of the game.  Something was off and I'll place my bet on the players biological clocks.

 

[Bermuda Triangle]

this should be subtitled 'The Gabe & Dawson Thread'