Playoff Chances Across The NFL 4 Weeks In

[corta765]

They say the first 4-6 weeks of the NFL season can be fools gold. Last year the Bengals started 0-2 but by seasons end were roaring, the Chiefs in 2021 were 3-3 6 weeks in yet finished #2 overall at seasons end. Conversely the Steelers of 2020 started 11-0 only to go 1-4 and lose in the wildcard at home. The NFL is littered with teams who start 3-1/4-1 etc.. and end the year under .500 (As Bills fans 08/11 come to mind). I try not to take massive brush strokes with some teams good or bad doing this as it is early, BUT teams like MIN or CIN have some red lights on the dashboard right now and you can cost yourself a division or playoff chance if you blow too many too early. With this said here is where I see things across the league (I am not separating conferences):

 

See You In January:

Buffalo - This feels like the most complete Bills team since McD got here and since the 90s SB teams. Fingers crossed baby.

Miami- Sunday was reality check that your good but the top is another level. Tua is a very good QB, to take the next step into top 5 means elevating beyond the system during breakdowns.

San Francisco- Purdy is Tua lite with even more talent around him somehow. This team is so dynamic across the board, I do wonder when they are down for real in a game how they respond.

Philadelphia- Their record is deceiving as the offense is a step behind last year and Hurts looks to still be recovering with his shoulder. They will get upset in the next few weeks and it won't be a surprise.

Dallas- Back on track after the disaster in ARZ, Sunday's game against San Fran will be a real early season litmus test on what this team is or isn't.

Detroit- Big win on the road to establish the new world order in the NFC North. Quarter into the season the Lions have done their job, three quarters to go to finish changing the narrative.

Kansas City- The offense lacks some skill at WR they have had in prior years, but the defense is incredibly stout and the running game goes.

Baltimore- Someday we will see the Ravens fully healthy, that also might be at the 2nd coming of Christ.

 

Should Make The Playoffs...But

Jacksonville- The offense is not where people though (including myself) but the potential is there. Maybe they aren't the 1 seed but the division SHOULD be theirs, the plucky upstarts in IND and HOU though make this a little interesting.

Los Angeles Chargers- Nothing is easy with this team when it should be. Somehow week 18 they will be in scenario they can win and possibly get the division or lose and possibly miss the playoffs. Nothing ever makes sense with this club.

Seattle- The biggest issue for Seattle is their own division where SF looks unstoppable, the Rams have reappeared as a thing, and even the Cards are fighting. They need at minimum to go 3-2 in remaining division games which seem far tougher now to not worry about getting bounced in tiebreakers especially with weeks 12-15 being SF, at DAL, at SF, & PHI.

Tampa Bay- Don't look now but Baker is on pace for 30 TDs and 3749 yds. Defense is quite solid, division is shaky which they just got one win vs NOLA, & Baker is playing within himself..... but can he keep it going for 13 more games.

 

Dashboard is Red, Near Perfect Run Needed For Playoffs

Cincinnati- Burrow is clearly hurt in some capacity, but CIN is desperately trying to keep him in to not lose pace in division which is doing more harm. They are now 0-3 in conference, 0-2 in division and 1-3 overall. They need to start thinking long term to save the season and get the best of Burrow back because at this point they are looking at 9-4 just to make the wildcard. 

Minnesota- The offense is near the best in football in terms of production and their defense can get sacks. They have to walk a really fine line if they want to get back in the playoffs and 10 wins is a must given the tiebreaker situation they've blown already.

 

Wildcards for the Wildcard (50/50)

Cleveland- If Chubb was healthy I would've had them in, but Watson has been very up and down and now hurt.  

Washington- Defense looks decent and the offense has weapons. Can Howell have more good days then bad?

LA Rams- Things get reallyyy interesting if Kupp comes back and can be healthy the rest of the year to join the kids at WR. I am pulling for them to make a run for a wild card as they are a fun team to watch

Green Bay- Love has looked decent and the young weapons are coming along. Curious if they can be consistent enough for 9 wins?

New Orleans- Defense looks good, offense looks like pure garbage. Maybe they can figure it out running Kamara enough and Carr can find his 2016 self, but they just seem to be treading water.

 

QB Play Wasting a Playoff Team

NY Jets- From a purely neutral party perspective it is criminal they refuse to go find or sign a QB who is not Zach Wilson. The rest of the lineup is worthy of a wildcard.

Atlanta- They bet on Ridder to be a decent game manager and he has been decidedly worse. Again why wouldn't they go after Lamar, Carr, heck even Jimmy G so they had some backing at QB?

 

The Kids Are Fun, Can They Get To 10 Wins...Probably Not 

Houston - Stroud is elevating his WRs, they play with fight, and overall are taking some real steps of growth this year. Still feels like talent wise they don't have enough to make a push in the back half, but anything is possible.

Indianapolis- Richardson is a freak and dare I say Allen 2.0 with his physical tools. IF Taylor is truly healthy when he returns I am very curious to watch this rushing attack.

 

Dick Jauron Bills! Aka 7-10 No Playoffs No Top 5 Pick

Denver- Advanced stats are nicer to the Broncos then their record. I won't be surprised if with 5 games to go they are 5-7 and in the hunt. First two losses were killer.

Tennessee Titans- That offense is putrid regardless of what coaching and the defense does. Tannehill still is benched by week 13.

 

How The Mighty Have Fallen... To The Draft

New England- Worst loss of BB's career in terms of margin of defeat. The defense is banged up and the offense while more competent can't compete. Glorious to watch.

Pittsburgh- Sports are cyclical people. Long runs of winning have their down days too even for the best teams. Seriously though a good defense has zero help by this offense who for some reason still employees Matt Canada as an OC. Tomlins .500 or better streak dies this year.

 

Tough Year Ahead/Arizona Is Fighting

Las Vegas- A mess across the board, coach who never has inspired confidence, and a team that won't admit they need to reset.

Carolina- Offense is barren of talent, Young is taking his lumps and looks very basic, and they don't have a 1st this draft which might be top 5. Yikes.

New York Giants- Last year they got the bounces and breaks. Then they drank the koolaid they could make Daniel Jones into more then he is. Now the offense is stagnant, the QB stinks, the RB wants to leave, and their cap room is a mess thanks to said QBs contract. I still believe in Daboll/Schoen but they have some real hard questions they need to be very honest about if they want to truly right the ship long term.

Arizona- They will be drafting top 5 but they look to have some fight and be buying into Gannon's program. Work to do but long term could be a real threat IF they draft well

 

Chicago Bears (they get their own category)

-Every few years a team comes apart in a truly spectacular way. I was never high on Fields, but I have zero clue how you evaluate him either in this dumpster fire.

 

[Warcodered]

I wouldn't count Houston out on coming up behind and choking Jacksonville out.

[corta765]

5 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I wouldn't count Houston out on coming up behind and choking Jacksonville out.

It’s why I have them where I did for each. Odds are Jags pull it out, but Stroud at this level for a season is a real

issue for the rest of the divison.

[Low Positive]

The Giants are about to slide down into that Bears' territory. That team is coming apart at the seams. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

7 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I wouldn't count Houston out on coming up behind and choking Jacksonville out.

Same. They were my surprise "watch out for" team. Ryans looks to be a heck of a coach. 

[Warcodered]

10 minutes ago, corta765 said:

It’s why I have them where I did for each. Odds are Jags pull it out, but Stroud at this level for a season is a real

issue for the rest of the divison.

I just think that division is pretty weak overall and Jacksonville doesn't have as solid a hold on it as people, sports media, think. Also unlike Jacksonville Houston doesn't have to play all the division leaders.

[Gregg]

21 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I wouldn't count Houston out on coming up behind and choking Jacksonville out.

 

It's early but right now CJ Stroud is looking like the OROY. The Texans hit a HR with finding their QB.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

I can’t believe I’m about to go to bat for Zach Wilson but I can see the jets rolling with him given who’s available.  At least he’s bad and mobile rather than just a pretty bad pocket passer lol matt Ryan would get killed behind that offensive line 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

 

Kansas City- The offense lacks some skill at WR they have had in prior years, but the defense is incredibly stout and the running game goes.

 

KC should be ranked higher.  Taylor Swift.

*
🙄

[Gregg]

14 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

KC should be ranked higher.  Taylor Swift.

*
🙄

 

I was at the game Sunday night, and I have to say the Chiefs were lucky to escape with the win. After they jumped out to big lead the Jets D did a great job keep them out of the endzone. Even the great Mahomes looked uncomfortable out there for a good portion of the game. Sucks we have to play them again as they really are a pain in the ass to the Bills. 

[corta765]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:

The Giants are about to slide down into that Bears' territory. That team is coming apart at the seams. 

Daboll has creditability after last year and time, but they are going to have a rough road for a while. They do have injuries making it nearly impossible for having a competent attack.

[Dukestreetking]

Very solid work @corta765.

 

Perfect example of why TBD is a "See You in January" fan forum.

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

The Giants are about to slide down into that Bears' territory. That team is coming apart at the seams. 

 

Daboll being familiar with the Bills schemes and players might be the only thing that saves them from a historic ass kicking in Buffalo. MIGHT save them.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Big Turk

[May Day 10]

id drop baltimore down.  That division still is muddy.

[corta765]

17 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

id drop baltimore down.  That division still is muddy.

 

I thought about moving them down one but I guess my thing is they are the only team in that division whose QB is functioning and playing at a high level, their defense is usually pretty good, and their already 2-0 in division. Don't get me wrong I thought pretty hard about if they were too high, but at least making the playoffs seems like a definitive yes.

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

 

I was at the game Sunday night, and I have to say the Chiefs were lucky to escape with the win. After they jumped out to big lead the Jets D did a great job keep them out of the endzone. Even the great Mahomes looked uncomfortable out there for a good portion of the game. Sucks we have to play them again as they really are a pain in the ass to the Bills. 

 

Most annoying thing with KC is the offense looks a bit more mortal, but their defense looks really stout so they are in it no matter what. The only good game their offense had was against a rotting corpse in CHI.

[jletha]

3 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

I thought about moving them down one but I guess my thing is they are the only team in that division whose QB is functioning and playing at a high level, their defense is usually pretty good, and their already 2-0 in division. Don't get me wrong I thought pretty hard about if they were too high, but at least making the playoffs seems like a definitive yes.

 

Most annoying thing with KC is the offense looks a bit more mortal, but their defense looks really stout so they are in it no matter what. The only good game their offense had was against a rotting corpse in CHI.

Im hoping that Miami can beat KC for us and then we beat them as well to help secure the #1 seed. Obviously we will need other things to work out for us down the stretch.

[SoCal Deek]

The question is who moves up to get Caleb Williams? Or, do the Bears kick Fields to the proverbial curb. 

[corta765]

29 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The question is who moves up to get Caleb Williams? Or, do the Bears kick Fields to the proverbial curb. 

 

Based on how it is going in CHI Town the only true way to fix that team is from top to bottom. That franchise has held onto the belief that defense wins above all and the whole "bear down mentality" etc.. Fundamentally they need a truly new vision that literally starts with a football president like the Eagles have in Howie Roseman who can then put everything into place that embraces the NFL today which rewards offense and high octane passing. If they cannot do this Caleb will be let down regardless of talent and his ability to lift a team.

 

I honestly have no idea whether Fields can or can't be the guy. I am not sure how you would know with that chaos and lack of cohesive vision across the board. He was drafted by a different GM/Coach and then year 2 got a new GM and coach. That cycle has been repeating forever there. If things do keep on pace I can see them kicking Fields out or trading him, grabbing Williams and Harrison as a selling point for fans. Their burnt out and given how they have operated it would be their MO. IF by some chance they keep Fields I can see NYG/Raiders/Vikings all trying for him. Honestly any team QB needy in the top 15 should.

[JerseyBills]

I see it right now as BUF and SF and everyone else on a level below. The Chris Berman special 

[billsfan89]

Early Projections 

 

Division Winners AFC 

Bills, Baltimore, KC and Houston

Wild Cards AFC

Miami, Chargers and Cleveland 

Bubble Playoff teams 

Jacksonville and Cincy (I think the Bengals get it going late but dug themselves too much of a hole as they probably are going to have to sit Joe Burrow for a few weeks and eat more losses they could be sitting at 2-6 or 3-5 after the next 4 weeks and still having to play KC and Baltimore)

 

Division Winners NFC

Eagles, Niners, Lions and Bucs

NFC Wild Cards

Cowboys, Seahawks and Falcons

Bubble Playoff teams

Packers, Rams and maybe the Commanders

 

 

5 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

I see it right now as BUF and SF and everyone else on a level below. The Chris Berman special 

 

I think KC and Philly are on the same level as SF and the Bills. As bad as KC's offense can look at times I think they are doing what the Pats used to do with Brady and using September, October, and early November as a tune-up for some things in the playoffs. They will get their receivers more time and snaps to get rolling by December. They may still have issues but I expect them to be better offensively. 

[Utah John]

14 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I can’t believe I’m about to go to bat for Zach Wilson but I can see the jets rolling with him given who’s available.  At least he’s bad and mobile rather than just a pretty bad pocket passer lol matt Ryan would get killed behind that offensive line 

Zach Wilson is inconsistent, but when he's on he's pretty good.  Good arm, makes the tough throws.  But then he gets stupid and careless for a few series and that's the ball game.  Who knows whether he'll get his issues fixed.  Josh Allen did.  I'm not saying that Wilson will ever be in Allen's tier, but the point is a young QB with a good arm can become better.  If Wilson gets Jordan Palmer's phone number, who knows how good he can get.

 

 

Forget about Denver.  Their offense is about average, but their defense is incredibly bad.  They give up 10 touchdowns to the Dolphins and looked even worse doing it than you'd think.  Then they make Fields look like a great young QB, when he's generally pretty mediocre. If the Bills played the Broncos this year, the league would make Josh Allen wear a blindfold to keep the score in double digits.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Utah John

[Gregg]

4 hours ago, Utah John said:

Zach Wilson is inconsistent, but when he's on he's pretty good.  Good arm, makes the tough throws.  But then he gets stupid and careless for a few series and that's the ball game.  Who knows whether he'll get his issues fixed.  Josh Allen did.  I'm not saying that Wilson will ever be in Allen's tier, but the point is a young QB with a good arm can become better.  If Wilson gets Jordan Palmer's phone number, who knows how good he can get.

 

 

Forget about Denver.  Their offense is about average, but their defense is incredibly bad.  They give up 10 touchdowns to the Dolphins and looked even worse doing it than you'd think.  Then they make Fields look like a great young QB, when he's generally pretty mediocre. If the Bills played the Broncos this year, the league would make Josh Allen wear a blindfold to keep the score in double digits.

 

Get the blindfold ready. Monday night Nov 13. Broncos at Bills

[Gregg]

Peter King hinting that Matt Eberflus could get fired this week if they lose again. 14 straight going back to last year.

 

670 The Score on X: ".@peter_king wouldn't be surprised if the Bears fire coach Matt Eberflus on Friday or sometime later during the season. "You can not lose 14 games in a row and think you should hold onto your job," he says. Listen to full interview with @ParkinsSpiegel: https://t.co/sIcJEyYDIq https://t.co/M7mUgFSJr0" / X (twitter.com)

[BearNorth]

18 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Daboll being familiar with the Bills schemes and players might be the only thing that saves them from a historic ass kicking in Buffalo. MIGHT save them.

Those schemes are getting new wrinkles, that 40 yard dump play to Cook was never seen in the Daboll years.

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Those schemes are getting new wrinkles, that 40 yard dump play to Cook was never seen in the Daboll years.

 

That wasn't really a drawn up play, that was simply Cook seeing Allen scrambling and turning it upfield.

[NewEra]

21 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

The Giants are about to slide down into that Bears' territory. That team is coming apart at the seams. 

Watching them play is like watching a stand up comedy show.  I get 4-5 good laughs an hour

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Watching them play is like watching a stand up comedy show.  I get 4-5 good laughs an hour

I actually enjoyed that game. One of my favorite non-Bills games last year was the no-TD overtime debacle between the Colts and Broncos. It was so bad it became comical. I was watching it with my daughter and we both were laughing the whole game. 

[corta765]

18 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 Jacksonville and Cincy (I think the Bengals get it going late but dug themselves too much of a hole as they probably are going to have to sit Joe Burrow for a few weeks and eat more losses they could be sitting at 2-6 or 3-5 after the next 4 weeks and still having to play KC and Baltimore)

 

I have thought the worst thing CIN did was not resting Burrow a week or two. Short term it would've stunk and they would probably fall back in division race, but now they may have to large of a hole to even make the playoffs which is even worse.

[TBBills Fan]

Burrow has one of those injuries that isn't going away any time soon.  The Bungles bringing him back instead of sitting him til he was actually healed may have destroyed their season

[corta765]

1 hour ago, TBBills Fan said:

Burrow has one of those injuries that isn't going away any time soon.  The Bungles bringing him back instead of sitting him til he was actually healed may have destroyed their season

And the thing is Burrow is incredibly dependent as a passer on his timing and precision passing. he is not like Mahomes or Allen who can make it up as they go, if his body isn't right it is a major issue. 

[TBBills Fan]

Just now, corta765 said:

And the thing is Burrow is incredibly dependent as a passer on his timing and precision passing. he is not like Mahomes or Allen who can make it up as they go, if his body isn't right it is a major issue. 

 

 

100% agree, such a boneheaded move, they should/could have sat him this entire month if need be to get right, their record would probably be the same or better.  His play has been awful

[Gregg]

At this point it's the Ravens division to lose. They already have road wins at Cincinnati and Cleveland.

[corta765]

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

At this point it's the Ravens division to lose. They already have road wins at Cincinnati and Cleveland.

Besides it just being an awful injury I was genuinely interest if Chubb could carry CLE to the division. Such a bummer as Watson just seems so shaky at this point I wouldn't bet on him.