Kurt Warner Breakdown of Josh Allen This Week

[Motorin']

11 hours ago, Since1981 said:

I always thought Kurt was a JA17 hater. But not here. His “take the some bad with a lot of great” is spot on. 
 

his vid break downs always reminds me of how hard and fast QB1 has to think and react to the entire field. It’s amazing actually. 

 

His criticism has always been about Josh refusing to take the "lay ups" when they are rip for the picking. 

 

This is the first time I've heard him compare his own game to Josh's, in so far as saying that he was aggressive and took risks himself. Knowing that it would lead to mistakes, but that you have to live with it and make up for it.

 

 

[BillsDad51]

56 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Last week's Josh is who we need the rest of his career.  Taking what's there AND taking the deep shots when they are there.  I said it before, I love the concept of a death by 1000 cuts.  Mahomes figured it out, Brady, Rogers, Montana, and even Elway late in his career with Shanahan.  Take the 10+ play drives,keep getting 1st downs and it most of the time ends up good.

 

 

Exactly. Last week, the Raiders had ONE possession in 3rd quarter. I  realize 9-minute scoring drives are rare, but 6- and 7-minute drives keep the opposing offense on the bench and give the Bills defense a rest.

[Drew21PA]

Time will tell but I saw something for the first time in Josh after the loss to the Jets

 

i think he gets it now and will continue to do what he did last week.

 

something “clicked” despite a brutal loss.  Sometimes you need adversity to get it and I think he got it

[CincyBillsFan]

What I found most interesting about this video was Warner's insistence that Allen played well in week one against the Jets.  He made the case that except for two bad decisions Allen had a solid game.  And the stats kind of back him up where Allen did complete 71% of his passes against the Jets and for periods of time did show patience and take the "lay ups".

 

[eball]

14 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I’m liking the play action passing plays from under center.  Looks like he’s got passing options at three levels right in front of him, can pick the best passing option from there.

 

My goodness, it’s almost as if Dorsey might be competent????

 

[julian]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, the murders weren't the problem or the reason I'm in jail. It was my decision-making when I get irritated.

 

Hope you're right about him getting better. Certainly not impossible, but when I see it, I'll believe it. He's already very very damn good.

 

 

Not sure if that was sarcasm, but yes it’s his decision making because all INTs aren’t created equally.

 

 I’m not sure the murder comparison works because although losing a football game sucks, it’s probably not anywhere near as bad as losing a life lol.

 

 He’s had three games with 3 INTs in his career, same amount as Mahomes so I’m not even sure there’s a problem as big as some are convinced of.

[Sierra Foothills]

15 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

"Can't take it out of his game. Thats what makes Allen special."

 

Thank you for posting that link. The All-22 breakdown of Josh by Warner is outstanding. I could watch it repeatedly. This is Josh Allen at his best. Josh and Mahomes are doing things that have never consistently been done before.

 

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by Sierra Foothills

[Shaw66]

6 hours ago, Buddo said:

Very enjoyable breakdown. That’s the Josh we want to see every week, ruthlessly efficient, with a few ‘wow’ moments.

 

As Gunner says though, the Jest throws were simply unacceptably bad decisions, and unnecessary. Hero ball at its worst.

 

Warner didn’t say it as such, but if either of the throws to Shakir or Gabe hadn’t ended it as TDs, that would have been ok, because the opportunity was there, whereas against the Jest, it wasn’t. That's where you take the ‘rough with he smooth’ with Josh, because both did end up as TDs due to his extraordinary ability.

Yes, this point that you and Gunner are talking about is the key.  I think Josh has to be disciplined, meaning he NEVER takes the risky throw, the hero-ball throw, unless the situation absolutely demands it.  That is, unless it's fourth down and less than 10 seconds left in the game, and the throw is the only to get a TD or get into field goal position.   The rest of the time, take the easy completion.  Over and over, take the easy completion.  

 

And I agree about the Jets game.  Josh's bad decisions were bad decisions simply because taking the chance wasn't necessary.  And it isn't just the INTs.  It's every time Josh goes down field to a covered receiver (except Diggs one on one).  Almost every incompletion is a bad play.  And occasionally, that simple completion that he takes instead of a downfield incompletion, turns into a big play because a skill player makes a play - breaks a tackle or makes a tackler miss, or simply takes advantage of the defender's mistake.  

 

Warner demonstrates it nicely.  

 

Dorsey's play designs have to give Allen that easy option every play, but those aren't really difficult play designs.  That's what everyone is doing in the NFL all the time. 

 

But what about taking advantage of Allen's arm and his legs?   Oh, that will still happen.   He ripped some throws against Raiders.   And you can see that even the THREAT of him running reshapes the defense a bit.  Plus, there always will be plays where the receivers are covered, the protection breaks down, and Josh has to take off.  On those plays, Josh will be Josh, but even on those, when he's outside the pocket looking downfield, he needs to take the easy throw.  Never throw it into a crowd.  

 

I think there's a very simple barometer to measure how Josh is doing:  Completion percentage.   Josh should be completing 70 to 80%, or more.   If he's doing that, he's taking easy throws, making first downs, and everything else will take care of itself. 

[Sierra Foothills]

Yes, take the layups and I think we all agree it's about risk/reward, a combination of a snap judgement and situational awareness.

 

Interestingly the TDs last week to Gabriel Davis and Kahlil Shakir could both be viewed as risky. Yes the reward was a touchdown but the risk was a red zone INT or fumble by Josh (on Shakir's). A red zone turnover is often demoralizing and momentum-changing and minimally deprives the team of a field goal attempt so it's definitely arguable there was a lot of risk on those throws.

 

Ultimately the outcomes were good but they could just as well have been bad.

 

When you compare the TD risk from week two to the 3 INTs from week one it's not clear if the risk/reward was better or worse. The justification for at least one of the week one INTs was that "it was as good as a punt." I think what made week 1's INTs worse was that he threw into coverage with very low hopes for a good outcome... showed poor judgement.

 

On the related subject of Josh in the red zone, I believe he sees the end zone better than any other QB in the league. Remember he didn't throw his first red zone INT until his 55th career game. That's a remarkable fact.

 

To my assertion, is this a risky throw or not?

 

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by Sierra Foothills

[balln]

2 hours ago, Drew21PA said:

Time will tell but I saw something for the first time in Josh after the loss to the Jets

 

i think he gets it now and will continue to do what he did last week.

 

something “clicked” despite a brutal loss.  Sometimes you need adversity to get it and I think he got it

What? Nonsense. 

[Since1981]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

most interesting about this video was Warner's insistence that Allen played well in week one against the Jets.  He made the case that except for two bad decisions Allen had a solid game. 

It’s somewhat true. 17 had a couple very massive brain farts Vs Jets. They almost won. All the more painful with Wilson…hope it’s turning point. We will learn a lot tomorrow against Washington front DL and how it affects our boy

Edited September 23, 2023 by Since1981

[Realist]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

What I found most interesting about this video was Warner's insistence that Allen played well in week one against the Jets.  He made the case that except for two bad decisions Allen had a solid game.  And the stats kind of back him up where Allen did complete 71% of his passes against the Jets and for periods of time did show patience and take the "lay ups".

 

That's what I didn't understand about everyone saying Josh was terrible in that game, he really wasn't. Did he lose the game for us? Absolutely. But not because he played horrendous, but because he made like three terrible decisions. 

 

In my opinion, he saw Rodgers out for the game, defense playing pretty well, he thought just one more TD the game is out of reach. He made the bad decisions and went for the killer strikes instead of taking it slowly as he should have.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, this point that you and Gunner are talking about is the key.  I think Josh has to be disciplined, meaning he NEVER takes the risky throw, the hero-ball throw, unless the situation absolutely demands it.  That is, unless it's fourth down and less than 10 seconds left in the game, and the throw is the only to get a TD or get into field goal position.   The rest of the time, take the easy completion.  Over and over, take the easy completion.  

 

And I agree about the Jets game.  Josh's bad decisions were bad decisions simply because taking the chance wasn't necessary.  And it isn't just the INTs.  It's every time Josh goes down field to a covered receiver (except Diggs one on one).  Almost every incompletion is a bad play.  And occasionally, that simple completion that he takes instead of a downfield incompletion, turns into a big play because a skill player makes a play - breaks a tackle or makes a tackler miss, or simply takes advantage of the defender's mistake.  

 

Warner demonstrates it nicely.  

 

Dorsey's play designs have to give Allen that easy option every play, but those aren't really difficult play designs.  That's what everyone is doing in the NFL all the time. 

 

But what about taking advantage of Allen's arm and his legs?   Oh, that will still happen.   He ripped some throws against Raiders.   And you can see that even the THREAT of him running reshapes the defense a bit.  Plus, there always will be plays where the receivers are covered, the protection breaks down, and Josh has to take off.  On those plays, Josh will be Josh, but even on those, when he's outside the pocket looking downfield, he needs to take the easy throw.  Never throw it into a crowd.  

 

I think there's a very simple barometer to measure how Josh is doing:  Completion percentage.   Josh should be completing 70 to 80%, or more.   If he's doing that, he's taking easy throws, making first downs, and everything else will take care of itself. 

I guess this would have spared us all some heartache, because we would have lost the 13seconds game like 36-20 if he followed this advice😂😂

[MJS]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

It's a complimentary mix of both.  The Jets game was 1 quarter of patience and 3 quarters of hero "reckless" ball.  Josh will have opportunities to go deep when teams relax on deep cover 2.  In the meantime he should continue with the Raider gameplan in Washington. 

Josh wasn't playing hero ball. Quite the opposite. He was rattled and confused, and when that happens he stops thinking and just wings it the best he can.

[dickleyjones]

56 minutes ago, balln said:

What? Nonsense. 

An insightful comment. Thank you for your contribution.

[ColoradoBills]

33 minutes ago, MJS said:

Josh wasn't playing hero ball. Quite the opposite. He was rattled and confused, and when that happens he stops thinking and just wings it the best he can.

 

It will happen again in the future.  What I'm hoping for is Dorsey seeing that Josh is struggling and gets him settled down with the quick throws

for 1st downs.  Josh then can regroup.

[Billy Claude]

2 hours ago, Since1981 said:

It’s somewhat true. 17 had a couple very massive brain farts Vs Jets. They almost won. All the more painful with Wilson…hope it’s turning point. We will learn a lot tomorrow against Washington front DL and how it affects our boy

 

There's level of brain farts also.   Throwing a 40 yard pass into double coverage while falling, with your offense clicking (the Bills were on a nice drive at the time), your team is up by seven, you are in the range of a long field goal, and your opponent is totally inept offensively is about as bad as it can get.  It was laughable how many reasons that pass should not have been thrown.

Edited September 23, 2023 by Billy Claude

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Yes, take the layups and I think we all agree it's about risk/reward, a combination of a snap judgement and situational awareness.

 

Interestingly the TDs last week to Gabriel Davis and Kahlil Shakir could both be viewed as risky. Yes the reward was a touchdown but the risk was a red zone INT or fumble by Josh (on Shakir's). A red zone turnover is often demoralizing and momentum-changing and minimally deprives the team of a field goal attempt so it's definitely arguable there was a lot of risk on those throws.

 

Ultimately the outcomes were good but they could just as well have been bad.

 

When you compare the TD risk from week two to the 3 INTs from week one it's not clear if the risk/reward was better or worse. The justification for at least one of the week one INTs was that "it was as good as a punt." I think what made week 1's INTs worse was that he threw into coverage with very low hopes for a good outcome... showed poor judgement.

 

On the related subject of Josh in the red zone, I believe he sees the end zone better than any other QB in the league. Remember he didn't throw his first red zone INT until his 55th career game. That's a remarkable fact.

 

To my assertion, is this a risky throw or not?

 

 

This is interesting.  Thanks.  

 

There are two different things about his decision making.  Different but related.   One is INTs, and the other is incompletions.   A five-yard completion is a much better outcome for the play than an incomplete 20-yard attempt.   It's better almost regardless of the situation.  

 

As for the Jets game, I think that the interceptions, which were not good decisions, were an indication of his throwing generally as the game went on.  That is, I'm pretty sure his incompletions also went up.  That affects the team's ability to get first downs.  

 

In the Raiders game, I think Josh maintained his discipline throughout the game.   He seemed almost maniacal about throwing it short.  

 

As for the riskiness of the touchdowns, I would explain the two TDs differently.   I would guess that we've seen the TD to Davis ten times before.   What the Bills do is have runners deep in the end zone and if Josh is in scramble mode, then the receivers break to gaps in the defense.  That throw to Davis was a rocket, and he was coming back for the ball.  Pretty much no receiver makes that catch if he hasn't practiced it with Allen.   So, yes, it looked like a throw into a crowd, but I think Davis and Allen knew exactly what they were doing.  In other words, it was less risky than it looked.  

 

As for Shakir, well, that's just Josh being Josh.  I've been in this discussion about Allen in a few threads the past week.  I think the objective is to get him to get the ball playmakers, on script, and avoid INTs and incompletions.  Still, there are going to be half-dozen times during the game where Josh is forced to be the playmaker, that his, he's forced to do something that only Josh can do.   The same as Mahomes - different skill set, but the real edge both teams have over almost the others is they have a guy who, when needed, can be a premier playmaker himself.  Lamar Jackson, too.  The throw to Shakir was one of those.  You do not want to tell Allen not to make that throw because, well, yes, there's some risk, but the risk is less than you think, because it's Allen.  It's like his high school basketball coach telling his team he doesn't want anyone passing behind his back, because it's risky and none of you can do it that well.  Except Josh, he can pass behind his back, because, yes, it's risky, but it's less risky than you think, because it's Allen.  (And, yes, I just made up the high school thing as an example.)

 

I keep saying it:  If Josh can continue to discipline his play in that way, and if Dorsey is giving them the right plays to run, the offense could be really, really good.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

17 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I watched the entire thing with no ads at all.

 

I got three adds in the first 5 minutes and stopped watching. 

[WideNine]

In the red zone you can really see how teams are trying to take away the right side of the field anticipating his sideline scramble.

 

There are backside throws to the flat each time. Dorsey needs to scheme up some plays to take advantage of how teams are playing Allen's tendencies down there.

 

If Allen can mainly play within the offensive game plan and take what defenses are giving, I think in most cases we will be leading teams down the stretch.

 

We have a lot of play makers who have RAC ability and if defenses are going to bail out of the flat then those become easy chunk plays for us.

 

Allen being Allen when things break down is different in my mind from Allen being Allen dismissing open options underneath and being reckless.

 

More patience and throwing on schedule quickly will lead to more team wins and that approach will lead to less frequent turnovers.