Is Gabe Davis a trade candidate?

[transplantbillsfan]

I don't think we trade him, but recent events make me wonder. By all reports sounds like Sherfield and Harty are flashing in camp. With Kincaid and Knox we're going to run more 12 personnel than at any point during the Allen era, making WRs more expendable.

 

And then we sign a recent 2nd round WR in Andy Isabella. I realize he's been a bust thus far, but why would Beane bother bringing him in if he thought our WR corps was set?

 

And that's where the guesswork comes into play...

 

I'm sure most view it as Shakir insurance based on his reportedly poor start to camp. I think that'd be financially kinda silly considering Shakir showed some potential in actual NFL games and he's one of only 2 or 3 (if Shorter makes the team) WRs still under contract after 2023.

 

Gabe Davis will get a contract next season likely (as of this moment at least) in the $10-$15 million range, and I think that's actually below (maybe well below) what he'll actually get. We all know Buffalo’s CAP situation and what we're already gonna be paying Diggs since there's no out on his contract for 3 or 4 years. 

 

$40+ million (conservatively) a year to 2 WRs?

 

And then there's this from the first few TC practices from Joe B's day 3 report at The Athletic:

 

Davis targeted minimally the last two practices

Following the Bills’ second day of practice, starting receiver Gabe Davis was quite candid about some of his physical and mental struggles during the 2022 season, stemming from an early-year high ankle sprain that wound up defining his output. He didn’t take the leap many were hoping for, but he remains very well thought of throughout the building. There’s no doubt Davis looks a lot smoother and more explosive on his routes than from when he was injured, but it hasn’t translated to much production through the early portion of camp. Of those 37 Allen pass attempts over the last two practices, Davis was only targeted in team drills twice. Both targets occurred on Friday, and to Davis’ credit, he brought in both for a shorter reception. Over the same span, Diggs (10), Trent Sherfield (6), Knox (5) and Kincaid (3) were all targeted more often by Allen. It could just be the start of camp and a feeling out process with Allen and Davis, or perhaps it’s a continuation of the lower target share Davis accrued during 2022. Either way, all eyes will be on the now-healthy Davis in a contract year.

 

I know this... we already have a lot of draft capital next year and Beane loves trading up. What do you think Gabe fetches? A 3rd? A 4th? I think we could at least get a 4th for him, which is where he was drafted. 

 

Then Big Baller Beane uses all those draft picks to get our next #1 in waiting in next year's draft...

 

Marvin Harrison Jr. anyone????

[That's No Moon]

6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I don't think we trade him, but recent events make me wonder. By all reports sounds like Sherfield and Harty are flashing in camp. With Kincaid and Knox we're going to run more 12 personnel than at any point during the Allen era, making WRs more expendable.

 

And then we sign a recent 2nd round WR in Andy Isabella. I realize he's been a bust thus far, but why would Beane bother bringing him in if he thought our WR corps was set?

 

And that's where the guesswork comes into play...

 

I'm sure most view it as Shakir insurance based on his reportedly poor start to camp. I think that'd be financially kinda silly considering Shakir showed some potential in actual NFL games and he's one of only 2 or 3 (if Shorter makes the team) WRs still under contract after 2023.

 

Gabe Davis will get a contract next season likely (as of this moment at least) in the $10-$15 million range, and I think that's actually below (maybe well below) what he'll actually get. We all know Buffalo’s CAP situation and what we're already gonna be paying Diggs since there's no out on his contract for 3 or 4 years. 

 

$40+ million (conservatively) a year to 2 WRs?

 

And then there's this from the first few TC practices from Joe B's day 3 report at The Athletic:

 

Davis targeted minimally the last two practices

Following the Bills’ second day of practice, starting receiver Gabe Davis was quite candid about some of his physical and mental struggles during the 2022 season, stemming from an early-year high ankle sprain that wound up defining his output. He didn’t take the leap many were hoping for, but he remains very well thought of throughout the building. There’s no doubt Davis looks a lot smoother and more explosive on his routes than from when he was injured, but it hasn’t translated to much production through the early portion of camp. Of those 37 Allen pass attempts over the last two practices, Davis was only targeted in team drills twice. Both targets occurred on Friday, and to Davis’ credit, he brought in both for a shorter reception. Over the same span, Diggs (10), Trent Sherfield (6), Knox (5) and Kincaid (3) were all targeted more often by Allen. It could just be the start of camp and a feeling out process with Allen and Davis, or perhaps it’s a continuation of the lower target share Davis accrued during 2022. Either way, all eyes will be on the now-healthy Davis in a contract year.

 

I know this... we already have a lot of draft capital next year and Beane loves trading up. What do you think Gabe fetches? A 3rd? A 4th? I think we could at least get a 4th for him, which is where he was drafted. 

 

Then Big Baller Beane uses all those draft picks to get our next #1 in waiting in next year's draft...

 

Marvin Harrison Jr. anyone????

There is only one ball and if you don't throw it to Diggs enough it doesn't go well.

 

edit: and no, you don't pay him a big money extension. He's Robin, you never pay Robin. You get a new Robin. You pay Batman.

Edited July 29, 2023 by That's No Moon

[Buffalo_Stampede]

No. They’re going to sign him this summer.

[SCBills]

I doubt it..  but if he’s truly in their long term plans, they should seriously get him signed before the season starts. 

[Doc Brown]

No he's not.  He's by far our best outside WR lined up opposite Diggs.

[Bubba Gump]

I think it all depends on how the first quarter of the season goes. If he has the same issues as last year, BBB might look to deal him at the deadline. And if the other new guys show they have what it takes, I could easily see him packing his ***** and heading to the airport.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Bubba Gump

[Special K]

[newcam2012]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

No he's not.  He's by far our best X-WR lined up opposite Diggs.

Big drop off at the WR position after Diggs. Everyone of those guys are replaceable and interchangeable. 

 

Just shows you how good Allen is with a mediocre WR core. 

[Richard Noggin]

Love the topic, but don't love the OP suggesting even a SHRED of connection to the signing of Andy Isabella. I know it was a measured mention, but I hope that isn't the thing that pushed this to the forefront of your mind.

 

I REALLY hope they don't re-sign Gabe unless it's to a VERY team friendly deal (like $10M/per). And if they aren't going to re-sign him, then it makes sense to recoup whatever assets they can (I'd think a 3rd is possible and presents some value). 

 

His chemistry with Allen, minus one incredible playoff game (which we lost), has been inconsistent and fraught with nagging injuries and DREADFUL catching fundamentals. Matt Parrino shared (on fb) a pic from this week where Gabe is still doing that awful outstretched hands, reaching thing. He's gotten flack for "clapping" at the ball, and I'm not sure if that's the same or not as what plagued him last year. He's like pointing his hands AT the ball. It's a mess. 

[Shaw66]

That's a pretty creative idea.   I like all the soft evidence you've given.  There's a limit to how many big receivers you're gonna put on the field, and Knox and Kincaid both should see the field a lot.  Hard to say what to think of Shorter at this point, but he has to be a long shot. 

 

The other point is that McBeane love speed, and it's been in short supply in Buffalo.   The possibility of moving Davis makes the Isabella signing make more sense.   Maybe they want a burner opposite Diggs, with Kincaid in the slot.   Maybe they think Shakir can handle the load at #2, or maybe #2 will be receiver by committee. 

 

It is curious how stacked the receiver room is with guys who have potential. 

 

Interesting suggestion.    

[NewEra]

No

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

Love the topic, but don't love the OP suggesting even a SHRED of connection to the signing of Andy Isabella. I know it was a measured mention, but I hope that isn't the thing that pushed this to the forefront of your mind.

 

I REALLY hope they don't re-sign Gabe unless it's to a VERY team friendly deal (like $10M/per). And if they aren't going to re-sign him, then it makes sense to recoup whatever assets they can (I'd think a 3rd is possible and presents some value). 

 

His chemistry with Allen, minus one incredible playoff game (which we lost), has been inconsistent and fraught with nagging injuries and DREADFUL catching fundamentals. Matt Parrino shared (on fb) a pic from this week where Gabe is still doing that awful outstretched hands, reaching thing. He's gotten flack for "clapping" at the ball, and I'm not sure if that's the same or not as what plagued him last year. He's like pointing his hands AT the ball. It's a mess. 

Who would give a third for a receiver as bad as you suggest?    

[billsbackto81]

If we acquired Hopkins or someone of that status then maybe the thought would have a little credibility. He is the only legitimate #2 WR and deep ball threat opposite Diggs.

 

We can't go into the season with Diggs and 18 slot receivers. Unless he plans on betting on himself I think Beane signs him long term.  Got a good feeling about Davis this season. 

[Mango]

I don’t think so, if only for the fact that we have a million guys to play inside and just Gabe/Stef on the outside. There’s a log jam there, it’s how we lost Hodgins.

[Doc Brown]

4 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Big drop off at the WR position after Diggs. Everyone of those guys are replaceable and interchangeable. 

 

Just shows you how good Allen is with a mediocre WR core. 

Aaron Rodgers put up two MVP seasons with just one elite WR and a bunch of JAGS.  It's all you really need.  If we lose Diggs to injury Allen will look very similar to 2022 Aaron Rodgers.

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

Gabe Davis was playing through injury last season and still has upside. I think if he has a hot start to the season, we'll sign him to a long-term deal.

 

We have a lot of receivers in camp, but at least one of them is likely to get a minor injury during preseason and stashed on IR (either Shorter or Isabella)

Edited July 29, 2023 by Allen2Diggs

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

By all reports sounds like Sherfield and Harty are flashing in camp. 

 

And then we sign a recent 2nd round WR in Andy Isabella.

 

I never cease to be amazed by the undue appreciation that some fans just bestow upon the new crop of JAG's and camp fodder.

 

Gabe isn't an ideal WR2 for a contender but he's a starter in the NFL.........those guys range from WR4(Sharty in the rare event when healthy) all the way to unplayable.

 

[Richard Noggin]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Who would give a third for a receiver as bad as you suggest?    

 

He's not a "bad" reciever, but he is fighting the ball, and does have issues seeing routes and coversges and adjustments the same way his QB does as coverages have evolved over the years.

 

Teams would see a guy capable of exploding in the right situation, who simply needs to make a minor adjustment to his catching fundamentals and some improvements to his route tree.

 

I know the guys on the team love him, and his work ethic is apparently top notch. But I cannot abide watching an experienced NFL WR try to catch bullets like an RB taking a handoff (within his frame) or like someone holding an infant away from their body (outside his frame).

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I never cease to be amazed by the undue appreciation that some fans just bestow upon the new crop of JAG's and camp fodder.

 

Gabe isn't an ideal WR2 for a contender but he's a starter in the NFL.........those guys range from WR4(Sharty in the rare event when healthy) all the way to unplayable.

 

He’s actually a perfect WR2 if we look at him as a WR2. I compare him to top WR2’s but those guys are actually WR1’s, Waddle and Higgins for example. Then there’s young WRs on rookie deals with WR1 potential.

 

Davis is a WR2. He blocks and puts up 50-60 catches 900 yards and 8 TDs. That’s a WR2.

 

The question is can we easily replace him? The one thing he does do very well is score TDs. That would be the hardest part to replace. 

Edited July 29, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

He's not a "bad" reciever, but he is fighting the ball, and does have issues seeing routes and coversges and adjustments the same way his QB does as coverages have evolved over the years.

 

Teams would see a guy capable of exploding in the right situation, who simply needs to make a minor adjustment to his catching fundamentals and some improvements to his route tree.

 

I know the guys on the team love him, and his work ethic is apparently top notch. But I cannot abide watching an experienced NFL WR try to catch bullets like an RB taking a handoff (within his frame) or like someone holding an infant away from their body (outside his frame).

The drops are an issue but keep in mind his average depth of target has always been near the top of the league.  I'd be interested to see for the advanced analytic nerds if there's some adjusted formula that correlates drop rate to average depth of target.

Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s actually a perfect WR2 if he look at him as a WR2. I compare him to top WR2’s but those guys are actually WR1’s, Waddle and Higgins for example. Then there’s young WRs on rookie deals with WR1 potential.

 

Davis is a WR2. He blocks and puts up 50-60 catches 900 yards and 8 TDs. That’s a WR2.

 

The question is can we easily replace him? The one thing he does do very well is score TDs. That would be the hardest part to replace. 

No.  The ideal WR2 is a potential WR1 like Smith, Waddle, or Higgins.