Receiving concerns on offense

[Lane Meyer K12]

It is a make-or-break year for Davis. I have mentioned this before, but Moulds had the same issues years 1 and 2. However, he turned the corner in year 3 and became the receiver everyone had hoped for. If the Bills are lucky maybe history repeats. 

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I wasn't comparing Brown & Davis as similar WRs, I was comparing their stats relative to opportunities.  If it seemed that way I didn't mean it.  

 

Everyone ragging a on Davis would be equivalent to saying that Shakir sucks and will never be good.  Huw do we know, he's never had the targets.

 

Based upon the straight line oops tho, Davis got a fraction of the chances that other top WRS got.  

 

So start there, you can't possibly ignore that in good faith.  

 

Brown also isn't a slot WR either.

 

Way to leapfrog his 149th ranking in the sole metric you used to make a point.  All I did was turn it on it's head.  

 

What's good for the goose...

 

Also, way to ignore a bunch of incredibly relevant days otherwise.  You're better than that.  

 

 

 

 

I "leapfrogged" the 149th rating for AJ Brown versus 186th for Gabe because there are like 80 players in the 60-69.9% catch rate.    That's the median range for NFL receivers for catch rate.   It's not a negative for Brown.   Yeah if Gabe Davis also caught over 60% of his passes it would be a VERY different story......but he isn't anywhere near that.

 

And there are other very good players with lower catch rates than AJ Brown...........like Davante Adams for one..........but those guys weren't dropping 1 out of every 10 catchable target.........they just didn't have an elite QB throwing them the ball.     When Adams had an equivalent QB to Josh Allen his catch rate was in the 70%'s the prior two seasons.

 

Comes down to this:  

 

Gabe Davis has the benefit of playing with one of the best but he has the lowest catch rate and highest drop rate of any heavily targeted NFL WR.

 

The above is the point.   He's in a class by himself wrt the combination of opportunity and inability to come down with the football.

 

And yes, when you are targeted over 90 times.........that's a lot.   He was tied for 48th most targeted receiver in the NFL.   Tied with much more accomplished guys in Mike Williams and Brandin Cooks. 

 

Can he improve?    I sure hope so.   In the 2 obvious respects of being dead last in catch categories there is nowhere to go but up.   And they need him to improve because after him it's a rookie TE and a bunch of journeymen lined up to contend to be the second receiving option for the Bills offense.

[PBF81]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I "leapfrogged" the 149th rating for AJ Brown versus 186th for Gabe because there are like 80 players in the 60-69.9% catch rate.    That's the median range for NFL receivers for catch rate.   It's not a negative for Brown.   Yeah if Gabe Davis also caught over 60% of his passes it would be a VERY different story......but he isn't anywhere near that.

 

And there are other very good players with lower catch rates than AJ Brown...........like Davante Adams for one..........but those guys weren't dropping 1 out of every 10 catchable target.........they just didn't have an elite QB throwing them the ball.     When Adams had an equivalent QB to Josh Allen his catch rate was in the 70%'s the prior two seasons.

 

Comes down to this:  

 

Gabe Davis has the benefit of playing with one of the best but he has the lowest catch rate and highest drop rate of any heavily targeted NFL WR.

 

The above is the point.   He's in a class by himself wrt the combination of opportunity and inability to come down with the football.

 

And yes, when you are targeted over 90 times.........that's a lot.   He was tied for 48th most targeted receiver in the NFL.   Tied with much more accomplished guys in Mike Williams and Brandin Cooks. 

 

Can he improve?    I sure hope so.   In the 2 obvious respects of being dead last in catch categories there is nowhere to go but up.   And they need him to improve because after him it's a rookie TE and a bunch of journeymen lined up to contend to be the second receiving option for the Bills offense.

 

And my playoffs argument?  

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

20 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:

While I’m glad to see the Bills try and address the O-line, I’m not sure they’ve done enough to give Josh good/quality targets. IMO, going in the season with Gabe Davis as the #2 WR is a mistake. Davis underperformed last season as he struggled with drops and contested catches. I feel Davis is a better #3WR than the #2 WR. 
 

Trusting a rookie TE to be your slot guy is a huge risk. Would rather see a veteran WR in that position while they break Kincaid into that role.
 

I’m interested in seeing how the Bills use Harty and Sherfield, but neither guy has had eye-popping stats. 
 

If there are no further upgrades to the WR group going into the season, I have concerns about the WR’s outside of Diggs. 

 

Davis a #3 with almost 1000 yds a8 TDS over 19 games after suffering high ankle sprain in game 2?  lol

 

Anyway, look at the rentals the Bills have brought in the past few years: Sanders, Crowder and the corpses of Brown and Beasley.  Bums. No thanks.

[BADOLBILZ]

20 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

And my playoffs argument?  

 

 

 

 

What's your argument?   He had 3 excellent playoff games where he's put up around 400 yards and 5 TD's..........3 BAD playoff games where he totaled just 2 catches on 11 targets and 0 TD's.........and a 41 yard game against the Patriots which was neither dominant or particularly impressive but didn't need to be.     He's been better in the playoffs but he is still "inconsistent" Gabe.    

 

He gets too much of his production in bursts over a game or a few games.........and then has his stretches where he is lousy.........like the dreadful 3 catch on 14 targets game versus the Jets just 2 weeks prior to his greatest game ever versus the Chiefs in the playoffs.    Top receivers don't have the peaks and valleys like Gabe and that's why we hold our breath when the ball is thrown to him and why his overall numbers aren't where they should be.

 

 

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Einstein's Dog]

9 hours ago, Success said:

I think I may be the biggest detractor to the "we need another receiver" argument.

 

I mean, just look at NFL history.  Depth at the receiver position prevails more often than not.  The idea that you need a 1A and 1B or something like that just isn't consistent w/ the teams that actually win titles.

 

And Allen will have a TON to work w/ this year.  Harty & Sherfield are both upgrades, and Kincaid has a crazy high ceiling and should be open 24x7.  Watch how much our pass game improves w/ Allen having both a little more time in the pocket, and a real running game.

 

I don't understand your thinking, the NFL History part.  Here are some of the recent WR combos: LA - Kupp + Woods, Tampa Godwin + Evans (+Gronk), KC - Kelce + Hill.  That's 3 out of the last 4 titles have gone to teams with WR1+2 combos that are 1A/1B, and better than the current Bills.

 

I agree on paper it looks to me like the lower level depth has been improved.  That's really not a ton to work with though because those players are the replacements for McKenzie and Crowder who really didn't get much work.

 

I'm in the group who would like to see an upgrade in WR2 (G Davis). It's a long shot now and probably not happening.  DHop looks like he is going to the hjghest bidder which won't be the Bills.

 

If Gabe doesn't improve maybe an in-season trade will be looked at, if some team like Tampa or the Raiders stink - then M Evans or H Renfrow could be possibilities.

[PBF81]

51 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

What's your argument?   He had 3 excellent playoff games where he's put up around 400 yards and 5 TD's..........3 BAD playoff games where he totaled just 2 catches on 11 targets and 0 TD's.........and a 41 yard game against the Patriots which was neither dominant or particularly impressive but didn't need to be.     He's been better in the playoffs but he is still "inconsistent" Gabe.    

 

He gets too much of his production in bursts over a game or a few games.........and then has his stretches where he is lousy.........like the dreadful 3 catch on 14 targets game versus the Jets just 2 weeks prior to his greatest game ever versus the Chiefs in the playoffs.    Top receivers don't have the peaks and valleys like Gabe and that's why we hold our breath when the ball is thrown to him and why his overall numbers aren't where they should be.

 

Good thing I saved this one.  

 

Here ya go, I posted this, for the third or fourth time, in another thread hammering on Davis, without whom due to his playoff performances we'd be discussing a new head coach by now.  

 

BTW, Diggs has had fewer "peaks" than Davis has had in the playoffs.  So since our problems are of the Playoffs nature, not the regular season, if we're going to criticize the WRs, how about criticizing the one that hasn't even approached owning up to his $24M/season contract over the past five playoff games.  

 

--------------------

 

Davis made $1M, had 34 yards on 2 catches, 50.0% catch%, and both went for 1st-Downs.

 

Last season in the playoffs, $1M Davis had 8 catches for 147 Yards, and a catch % of 61.5%.

 

Last season in the playoffs, $96M Diggs had 11 catches for 149 Yards, and a catch % of 57.9%.

 

6 of Davis' 8 catches went for 1st-Downs. Davis had 1 TD.

 

6 of Diggs' 11 catches went for 1st-Downs. Diggs had 0 TDs.

 

When that's broken down per dollar paid, ...

 

NOW, let's compare the last 2 seasons of playoffs. First last year, then combined.

 

In the 2021 playoffs Davis had 10 catches for 242 Yards, and a catch % of 76.9%.

 

In the 2021 playoffs Diggs had 6 catches for 67 Yards, and a catch % of 60.0%

 

Only 2 of Diggs' 6 catches went for 1st-Downs. Diggs had 0 TDs.

 

5 of Davis' 10 catches went for 1st-Downs, 5 of Davis' catches went for TDs.

 

In both of the last two seasons playoffs combined ...

 

Diggs had 17 catches for 216 Yards, and a catch % of 58.6%

 

Davis had 18 catches for 389 Yards, and a catch % of 69.2%

 

Of Diggs 17 catches, 8 went for 1st-Downs, 0 went for TDs.

 

Of Davis 18 catches, 11 went for 1st-Downs, 6 went for TDs.

 

There's absolutely no comparison in the playoffs. Our problem has been in the playoffs, not the regular season.

 

This season Davis makes $3M contrasted with Diggs' 4-year $96M contract.

 

Sorry, but in the playoffs, for my money, I'm going with Davis. And let's skip the Davis only did what he did because of Diggs routine. Diggs didn't outperform Dais anywhere in the playoffs the past two seasons. No matter how it's sliced, our moneyman Diggs has come up drastically short in the playoffs for what he's getting paid.

 

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by PBF81

[BullBuchanan]

17 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

You conviently forgot he injured his ankle in week 4 or 5. Perhaps that has something to do with it.

I didn't conveniently forget anything. He injured his ankle before week 2 at practice, hence the missed week 2 game. Week 3 he would go on to post his biggest game of the season. My numbers hold up even considering that he didn't even play week 2.

[SoMAn]

23 hours ago, MJS said:

Davis was not as bad as everyone claims. He actually has solid #2 WR numbers. 836 yards and 7 TD's. He had some drops, but he can overcome that.

 

With the other additions, I think the receiving room is more talented and has a wider variety of skills and body types.

 

Yes, bringing in another legit receiver would have been helpful, but I think Beane still did well.

He had a few drops. Every receiver does. I think we need to remember that a fair number of his 'drops" were sideline routes in which he had no room to maneuver, and a few of those were passes that Josh threw just short enough that they unnecessarily became contested.

 

I'm not concerned about Gabe's performance. I think he'll be fine. 

 

[quinnearlysghost88]

Our offensive power is relying on Diggs and…Dawson Knox. Those are the 1 and 2. Kincaid is a rookie. Davis is a #3. And everyone else is a big old question mark.  
 

Our biggest rivals are surrounding their QBs with weapons and we’re retreading and wishing on a star that we have the next Kelce. 
 

We’re becoming phillip rivers and the San diego Chargers. 

1 hour ago, SoMAn said:

He had a few drops. Every receiver does. I think we need to remember that a fair number of his 'drops" were sideline routes in which he had no room to maneuver, and a few of those were passes that Josh threw just short enough that they unnecessarily became contested.

 

I'm not concerned about Gabe's performance. I think he'll be fine. 

 

33rd in receiving yards on supposedly the most explosive (top 3) offenses in the league doesn’t work. Those aren’t wr #2 stats. Those are wr2 stats for the browns. Whose wr2 is coincidentally 32nd!

Edited June 13, 2023 by quinnearlysghost88

[MJS]

1 hour ago, SoMAn said:

He had a few drops. Every receiver does. I think we need to remember that a fair number of his 'drops" were sideline routes in which he had no room to maneuver, and a few of those were passes that Josh threw just short enough that they unnecessarily became contested.

 

I'm not concerned about Gabe's performance. I think he'll be fine. 

Well, the drops are certainly concerning, but there is no reason to believe he can't overcome that.

 

I think fans are hyper focused on it now, though. Even if his drops significantly improve, fans will jump all over him whenever they happen.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Good thing I saved this one.  

 

Here ya go, I posted this, for the third or fourth time, in another thread hammering on Davis, without whom due to his playoff performances we'd be discussing a new head coach by now.  

 

BTW, Diggs has had fewer "peaks" than Davis has had in the playoffs.  So since our problems are of the Playoffs nature, not the regular season, if we're going to criticize the WRs, how about criticizing the one that hasn't even approached owning up to his $24M/season contract over the past five playoff games.  

 

--------------------

 

Davis made $1M, had 34 yards on 2 catches, 50.0% catch%, and both went for 1st-Downs.

 

Last season in the playoffs, $1M Davis had 8 catches for 147 Yards, and a catch % of 61.5%.

 

Last season in the playoffs, $96M Diggs had 11 catches for 149 Yards, and a catch % of 57.9%.

 

6 of Davis' 8 catches went for 1st-Downs. Davis had 1 TD.

 

6 of Diggs' 11 catches went for 1st-Downs. Diggs had 0 TDs.

 

When that's broken down per dollar paid, ...

 

NOW, let's compare the last 2 seasons of playoffs. First last year, then combined.

 

In the 2021 playoffs Davis had 10 catches for 242 Yards, and a catch % of 76.9%.

 

In the 2021 playoffs Diggs had 6 catches for 67 Yards, and a catch % of 60.0%

 

Only 2 of Diggs' 6 catches went for 1st-Downs. Diggs had 0 TDs.

 

5 of Davis' 10 catches went for 1st-Downs, 5 of Davis' catches went for TDs.

 

In both of the last two seasons playoffs combined ...

 

Diggs had 17 catches for 216 Yards, and a catch % of 58.6%

 

Davis had 18 catches for 389 Yards, and a catch % of 69.2%

 

Of Diggs 17 catches, 8 went for 1st-Downs, 0 went for TDs.

 

Of Davis 18 catches, 11 went for 1st-Downs, 6 went for TDs.

 

There's absolutely no comparison in the playoffs. Our problem has been in the playoffs, not the regular season.

 

This season Davis makes $3M contrasted with Diggs' 4-year $96M contract.

 

Sorry, but in the playoffs, for my money, I'm going with Davis. And let's skip the Davis only did what he did because of Diggs routine. Diggs didn't outperform Dais anywhere in the playoffs the past two seasons. No matter how it's sliced, our moneyman Diggs has come up drastically short in the playoffs for what he's getting paid.

 

 

 

That's just a lot of jive comparing apples to oranges.

 

Diggs gets matched against CB1 and/or doubled all season long and he still produces big numbers consistently.    Gabe never gets doubled.   That would be stupid of the opposing DC.   Because one player is great and the other player is Gabe.

 

They aren't running routes against the same quality of CB.   Talk about "leapfrogging" over a point.........again,  Davis has proven that he needs to be facing nickel/dime coverage players to shine.   That was the case in that divisional round game in KC.    Diggs runs wide open against those looks too........but he'd never get them.

 

Your attempts to compare Davis to the likes of AJ Brown and Diggs are totally absurd.   Get in the same ballpark, please. 

[bouds]

If Shakir gets targets he's gone to ease everyone's concerns, dude is a stud, just needs run.

 

 

[Chandler#81]

What concerns are you receiving? Is there anything we can do to help you?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Guess they should have traded for Davante Adams or Justin Jefferson. 

 

Could have given them Oliver and a 5th. 

 

Or executed the phantom Jerry Jeudy trade. 

[Jerry Jabber]

3 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

What concerns are you receiving? Is there anything we can do to help you?

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

The biggest concern I have about the offense is that our star QB has apparently gone from being an "Alien" to "Predator" by allegedly knocking up two thirds of Buffalo during the off season. I mean, how does that leave him time to work with Jordan Palmer?

[ddaryl]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

The biggest concern I have about the offense is that our star QB has apparently gone from being an "Alien" to "Predator" by allegedly knocking up two thirds of Buffalo during the off season. I mean, how does that leave him time to work with Jordan Palmer?

 

 

Are you being serious here or sarcastic?

 

i think the comment is over the top and sounds more like a person who is hanging onto the gossip column tabloids.

[BuffaloBillyG]

22 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

Are you being serious here or sarcastic?

 

i think the comment is over the top and sounds more like a person who is hanging onto the gossip column tabloids.

Not sarcastic...yet not serious at all. Just playing a bit lol

[hondo in seattle]

FWIW, PFF has our receiving corps rated ninth in the league.  

 

Since we're striving for a SB, I'd rather be rated #1, especially since we're a passing team.  But we have a pretty good group and I think Josh will do some damage this year with these guys.  

 

www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-wr-corps-ranked-among-league-s-best-in-pff-s-latest-reveal/ar-AA1cESnM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3e0541621d75421c9353463770518624&ei=7

[Jerry Jabber]

Glad to see I’m not the only one who wanted an upgrade at the #2 WR position. 

[Nextmanup]

On 6/12/2023 at 1:05 PM, Jerry Jabber said:

While I’m glad to see the Bills try and address the O-line, I’m not sure they’ve done enough to give Josh good/quality targets. IMO, going in the season with Gabe Davis as the #2 WR is a mistake. Davis underperformed last season as he struggled with drops and contested catches. I feel Davis is a better #3WR than the #2 WR. 
 

Trusting a rookie TE to be your slot guy is a huge risk. Would rather see a veteran WR in that position while they break Kincaid into that role.
 

I’m interested in seeing how the Bills use Harty and Sherfield, but neither guy has had eye-popping stats. 
 

If there are no further upgrades to the WR group going into the season, I have concerns about the WR’s outside of Diggs. 

Me too!  I wanted and expected Beane to go out and get a second STUD to catch the ball, and he did not.

 

The OL changes are further band aids from Beane.  Apparently, these guys just don't value the OL at all, but they are in love with the DL, despite it not being very good.

 

I guess we could still sign some name out of nowhere, but I doubt that happens and I don't see how the overall picture on offense will be a lot different.

 

Pray that Diggs remains healthy and happy.

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

WR2 is a legit concern, but Ken Dorsey remains a massive ?

our offense was extremely predictable with route concepts, especially down the stretch

I'm still wondering how we managed to finish so high in offensive rankings 

[Jerry Jabber]

Figured I’d revisit this after the first game. Had 13 people disagree with me when I first posted this thread. 
 

Looks like Playoff Gabe only had two receptions and did not do anything to take the pressure off of Diggs. The other WR’s that were brought in didn’t do anything of significance. Sure, there’s blame on Dorsey and Allen, but this looked like the same crappy offense as it did against the Bengals.