Ed Oliver big extension

[buffaloboyinATL]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

It's the guaranteed money.  The perspective on that is mindboggling.  Maybe not the overall contract value, again, if he continues to improve, but that $45M in Guaranteed is huge for him and what he brings.  It's also going to set a standard on the team, at least to some extent.  

 

 

Maybe, but more likely, it will impact upcoming DT contracts throughout the league.  I hope it makes the Jets contract with Quinnen Williams harder to swallow.  

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Maybe, but more likely, it will impact upcoming DT contracts throughout the league.  I hope it makes the Jets contract with Quinnen Williams harder to swallow.  

 

Well, ping me when you see a second tier DT getting anywhere near that $45M in Guaranteed money.  I don't see anyone of his caliber or near it even getting $35M guaranteed.  

 

 

[buffaloboyinATL]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, ping me when you see a second tier DT getting anywhere near that $45M in Guaranteed money.  I don't see anyone of his caliber or near it even getting $35M guaranteed.  

 

 

Will do.  (I am guessing  the next wave of DT contracts will reflect this type of guarantee) 

[Dablitzkrieg]

On 6/3/2023 at 5:24 PM, Virgil said:

I’m going to reserve judgement until I see the full details.  Initially, I’d rather have kept Edmunds, which says a lot for me.  
 

For Oliver, I’m tired of the injuries and excuses.  But in Beane I trust 

He's missed only 3 games in 4 years.  People like yourself should do more research and not make things up to push an agenda

[Mike in Horseheads]

My two cents is Ed signed a middle of the pack contract to stay in Buffalo. He's worth more on the open market as a FA IMO. I realize I'm in the minority on this.

[Sierra Foothills]

On 6/3/2023 at 5:16 PM, NC-billsfan! said:

But I wanted Oliver to play out his last year motivated and hungry. I just think he’s motivated by money. 

 

On 6/3/2023 at 6:09 PM, BillsShredder83 said:

This is the part that somehow is even worse than the $17m aav

Thought he'd have a monster year for sure.... i sincerely don't see that happening now

 

23 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I think most were happy to see him play on the last year of his deal hoping he would really ball out.  Now he is an overpaid injury prone undersized DT that we hope can live up to they hype coming out college. 

 

Hmmm, all this talk about making Oliver earn the new contract.

 

Minimally this casts aspersions on Oliver's character (some made comparisons to Dareus and Haynesworth... nice touch) as well as the judgement of McBeane.

 

Isn't it more likely that the Bills know what makes Oliver tick and feel very comfortable extending him now? Don't you think they are comfortable with his motivation going forward?

 

On 6/3/2023 at 5:26 PM, PBF81 said:

In the varying forums however, this move is taking more of a beating than getting support.  

 

I think you might be confusing the vocal minority (and the silent majority) with the actual consensus.

 

13 hours ago, McBean said:

I hate this signing so much that I don’t even know where to begin.

 

Go watch Chris Jones or big Jeff Simmons play, then go watch Oliver.

 

Guy is so average it hurts.

 

What an absolute horrible move by Brandon Beane my god.

 

Heresy McBeane! You must stop with the self-immolation!

 

 

[Virgil]

43 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

He's missed only 3 games in 4 years.  People like yourself should do more research and not make things up to push an agenda

Who said anything about missing games?  
 

There’s plenty of info out there that says he played hurt, which affected his performance and why we haven’t seen his true potential consistently 

[billsfan89]

59 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

My two cents is Ed signed a middle of the pack contract to stay in Buffalo. He's worth more on the open market as a FA IMO. I realize I'm in the minority on this.

 

If Oliver had a season similar to 2022 in 2023 he probably would have gotten a similar contract on the open market maybe even a bit more. If he had a great season he could have gotten a lot more. But that's risking injury and taking good money that's guaranteed is the smart move. 

 

I am curious as to what the cap savings are for this season? Oliver's cap number was close to 11 million on the option, how much money does the new deal free up?

[PBF81]

50 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Isn't it more likely that the Bills know what makes Oliver tick and feel very comfortable extending him now? Don't you think they are comfortable with his motivation going forward?

 

Since you pinged me in your reply, perhaps, but what's the standard for them knowing this? 

 

McD choosing Peterman to play QB over Allen initially stating he was a very good QB?  

 

Or bringing guys like Kelvin Benjamin, Lotulelei, Mario Addison, Vernon Butler, Daryl Williams, Andre Smith, and Efe Obada all here from McD's familiarity with them at Carolina knowing what motivated them?   Some of those not so inexpensively either.  

 

Which do you think is more likely?   Since you brought it up that is.  

 

 

Edited June 5 by PBF81

[Sierra Foothills]

22 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Since you pinged me in your reply, perhaps, but what's the standard for them knowing this? 

 

McD choosing Peterman to play QB over Allen initially stating he was a very good QB?  

 

Or bringing guys like Kelvin Benjamin, Lotulelei, Mario Addison, Vernon Butler, Daryl Williams, Andre Smith, and Efe Obada all here from McD's familiarity with them at Carolina knowing what motivated them?   Some of those not so inexpensively either.  

 

Which do you think is more likely?   Since you brought it up that is.  

 

 

 

Clearly your point with your cherry-picked examples is that there's no basis to have faith in the decision making of McBeane.

 

My answer?

 

Pre-McBeane the Bills went 17 seasons without making the playoffs.

 

Since taking over, the Bills have a record of 66-40 and a winning percentage of .635.

 

It's a certainty that they know a helluva lot better than you.

 

BTW, congratulations on your thread-leading 54 posts...

 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

My two cents is Ed signed a middle of the pack contract to stay in Buffalo. He's worth more on the open market as a FA IMO. I realize I'm in the minority on this.

This is where I am at as well
 

He hasn’t played up to his draft selection, but that doesn’t mean that he cannot play up to it in the future and injuries have been a factor here

 

It does not mean that he hasn’t been a good player for us. He certainly is not a bust.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I don't think his underlying analytics are that good.........but it's easy to just SAY they are and not back it up.........which you sorta' did when vaguely claiming he is now a 70% snap guy(even if that is a low bar as well).

 

It stands to reason that a guy who plays just over half of the snaps will be fresher and should be more productive on a per-play basis...........but he's not comparable to $20M types even on a per-snap basis even though those guys are doing a lot more heavy lifting.

 

Yeah.......he does need to up his counting stats but he also needs to be better on a per play basis and play a higher % of snaps.    The same argument could be made about Gabriel Davis and I guess there would be a lot of reasons to believe he will become a WR1..........I guess then it's very  for his agent to ask for 80% of a top 11 WR contract?

 

 

He was top 6 in ESPN's pass rush win rate in 2021, top 6 in their run stop win rate in 2022. His total career pressures are 62, from 2,284 total snaps. That works out as a pressure around once every 37 snaps. If you compare that to his contemporaries from the 2019 First Round:

Q Williams - every 31 snaps

D Lawrence - every 36 snaps

J Simmons - every 40 snaps

C Wilkins - every 57 snaps

 

And compare it to some of the top paid (non-Aaron Donald) defensive tackles:

Chris Jones - every 18 snaps*

DeForest Buckner - every 29 snaps*

Javon Hargrave - every 38 snaps*

Daron Payne - every 46 snaps

 

* denotes calculation for those players is since 2018 when PFR began tracking pressures.

 

While I would argue that shows there is clear water between Ed and the very top level elite guys - Jones, Buckner and Q - his underlying metrics compare pretty well with other guys being paid more. Agree the bare production numbers don't, and for the deal to work out value they will have to, but there are reasons for optimism based on the data.

 

As for snap counts, over the final 8 games in 2022 Ed Oliver played an average of 70% (70.125% to be exact - no guesstimation here) of the defensive snaps. If that is the frequency of use they intend going forward I think that can justify the investment should the bare production numbers take the uptick that I agree they need to.

Edited June 5 by GunnerBill

[PBF81]

34 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Congratulations on your thread-leading 54 posts...

 

Thanks!

 

Almost all of them are very congenital intelligent strings of conversations I'm having with several people who are also enjoying them.  Almost all.  🙂

 

 

[Lothar]

Congenital? Congenial maybe? 🙂

26 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Almost all of them are very congenital intelligent strings of conversations I'm having with several people who are also enjoying them.  Almost all.  🙂

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Wasted pick, never wanted him , still dont, too small, wanted Dexter Lawrence 6'5 350, which is the type of DT this needed/needs.

 

 

[newcam2012]

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, I realize that you disagree.  these discussions wouldn't be much fun if everyone agreed with everyone else.  LOL  I was simply providing some basis for why I'm actually pretty bullish on Davis.  I will also say, he's one of the better playoff performers.  In fact, he's the only one that has single-handely won a playoff game for us in our last five playoff games, the one against KC the "13 Seconds" game.  Even Diggs doesn't have that distinction.  Had Davis not gone off in that game it likely would have ended more like the season prior in 2020.  

 

I'm very curious to see him play injury-free as well.  

 

I also don't understand this overemphasis on Hopkins.  Hopkins will be 31 this season, has been plagued by injuries the past few seasons and clearly hasn't been the same player since, but for all the talk about character on this team, he was also suspended last season for substance abuse.  And if we were to sign him after this Oliver signing, that would definitely be a sign of a "win now" scenario, but it would also question what they'd do with their trade-up 1st-Round pick Kincaid since both seem to fill a similar role.  

 

Davis still has ceiling at least, Hopkins has little if any.  If we sign Hopkins and win it all, fantastic.  But if we sign Hopkins and don't, ...  If we do, hopefully it's a performance-driven contract.  He's already said he'd like to play with Allen, Mahomes, Hurts, Herbert, or another QB that I forget whom, but who wouldn't.  

 

Here's a couple of interesting recent articles on Hopkins.  

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/deandre-hopkins-release-cardinals-contract-age/srkfypigejszgpeaehyqmxi3

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/05/30/inside-deandre-hopkins-release-options-bills-chiefs  

 

 

 

Hopkins played well after serving his suspension. He played on a poor team with a sub par QB passer. Sure he's getting older but I believe Hopkins is still elite. Remember, his skill set isn't reliant on speed. He's still an elite route runner with size and fantastic hands. Think Larry Fitzgerald...

 

Is there risk? Of course but so was Von. I didn't mind the mindset of why Beane acquired Von. I wouldn't mind aggressively going after Hopkins. I believe his addition would take the Bills O to another level. There is nothing remotely close to Hopkins on the current roster.

 

Beane has clearly emphasized building up the offense and giving Allen weapons and protection. Why stop now? 

 

Get it done Beane!

Edited June 5 by newcam2012

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Hopkins played well after serving his suspension. He played on a poor team with a sub par QB passer. Sure he's getting older but I believe Hopkins is still elite. Remember, his skill set isn't reliant on speed. He's still an elite route runner with size and fantastic hands. Think Larry Fitzgerald...

 

Is there risk? Of course but so was Von. I didn't mind the mindset of why Beane acquired Von. I wouldn't mind aggressively going after Hopkins. I believe his addition would take the Bills O to another level. There is nothing remotely close to Hopkins on the current roster.

 

Beane has clearly emphasized building up the offense and giving Allen weapons and protection. Why stop now? 

 

Get it done Beane!

The timing of this extension is odd, so it makes me think it’s Hopkins related.

 

But fans don’t seem to think a pass rusher is as important. It may be more important. The Chiefs also are after a pass rusher. I think this move could’ve been done now to secure one of them. Especially if they’re planning on Von missing 4 games. 

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thanks!

 

Almost all of them are very congenital intelligent strings of conversations I'm having with several people who are also enjoying them.  Almost all.  🙂

 

 

I am the last person that should be correcting anybody else in their grammar, but what exactly is congenital?

[dollars 2 donuts]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thanks!

 

Almost all of them are very congenital intelligent strings of conversations I'm having with several people who are also enjoying them.  Almost all.  🙂

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Lothar said:

Congenital? Congenial maybe? 🙂

 

 

10 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I am the last person that should be correcting anybody else in their grammar, but what exactly is congenital?

 

Maybe it’s “cogent,”

 

 

Edited June 5 by dollars 2 donuts

[BritBill]

I was hoping to see this season's first "I'm Out" post in this thread. Very disappointing. I'll wait for the Davis extension thread.