Good read on Trent Sherfield

[dave mcbride]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Stevie isn't really the type I am talking about though, he isn't a prototypical, vertical, downfield receiver. He was a crafty, unique, route runner. And he had college production. Okay only one season but his final year at Kentucky he had over 1,000 yards and 13 TDs. 

 

I don't know as much about the college production of the others without looking it up. But I suspect TO and Brandon Marshall didn't have a best season of 550 and 3 toudowns. Of course they out performed their college career in the NFL.

 

It is those bigger, downfield guys that didn't really produce beyond a very modest level in college. I am thinking guys like the kid the Cowboys took two years ago out of Stanford in the 5th or 6th and Jacob Harris out of UCF who the Rams took in the 4th and have already cut. Collin Johnson out of Texas...  I feel like in the last 10 years since I have been really focused on the draft there have been a ton of them. Bigger guys whose best years in college are 5 or 600 yards and teams gamble on the upside and they don't produce... 

 

I am sure there are examples where it has worked out but I am struggling to think of them.

Good post. As for gambling on guys with that upside but modest stats, I give you https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/dk-metcalf-1.html. 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Good post. As for gambling on guys with that upside but modest stats, I give you https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/dk-metcalf-1.html. 

 

Fair!

[dave mcbride]

46 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Fair!

The other thing I'd say about all of this is that there's the height that's listed and the height that's inclusive of reach. Hakeem Olajuwon was 6'10" but was effectively taller than a number of 7-foot centers because his arms were so goddamn long. Wingspan/reach is key when thinking about a player's true playing height. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The other thing I'd say about all of this is that there's the height that's listed and the height that's inclusive of reach. Hakeem Olajuwon was 6'10" but was effectively taller than a number of 7-foot centers because his arms were so goddamn long. Wingspan/reach is key when thinking about a player's true playing height. 

 

Yea I am definitely not saying big guys can't play. But big guys who struggled to make an impact in college rarely then make a big impact in the NFL. I think it is because in comparison there are reasons why a smaller guy might be overlooked. But if a big guy isn't performing in college it is normally not for lack of opportunity so generally indicates an issue somewhere and those issues are rarely overcome in the NFL.

 

The good thing with Shorter is even if he can't develop as a receiver he can be a good special teamer while on a cheap rookie deal.

[PBF81]

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Good and fair reply here...lets discuss a few of these points

 

Thanks!  I really appreciate the intelligent discourse.  

 

That is a lucid, intelligent, well thought out argument.  Overruled!  

 

OK, w/o googling, what movie is that from?   If you're not a fan of it you may recognize the quote.  

 

I'll respond to a handful of your points.  I agree with much of what you wrote.  

 

 

Quote

 

Being good on ST is not a kiss of death IMO, that is how you carve out a role and contribute more when you have guys entrenched above him. 

 

 

No, but when a WR is kept for his STs contributions, you can typically write him off as much of a contributor in the receiving department was my meaning.  

 

 

Quote

In SF, he was stuck behind Deebo and Aiyuk.  In Miami, he was stuck behind Hill and Waddle.  And while he was in SF, he was outplaying everyone in camp and preseason, but he had no shot to play because of the draft capital invested in the guys above him that he was out playing. 

 

Here's the thing, I don't see it that much differently here.  We disagree as to the role on the depth chart that he'll take up, which largely explains the differences in our expectations.  But I will add that yes, he was behind Hill and Waddle in Miami, but he was the third option on a team bereft of receiving talent, and Hill was even injured and played through injury, which upped Sherfield's opportunity.  Still, the best he was able to make of that was 30/417/2.  And again, I cannot stress that terrible overall 2nd halves performance of his enough in this scenario.  So we'll see I guess.  

 

There's also an enormous gap between Hill 1,710/7 and Waddle 1,356/8, and Sherfield, their 3rd option, which also says something, quite a bit in fact.  

 

 

Quote

Shakir stats last year have no bearing here...and that is because Dorsey just didnt use him, nor did this team even really use Cook for a large portion of the season as rookies.  Shakirs reps were being taken by McKenze and then Beasley.  

 

Honestly, Dorsey factors significantly into my assessment.  That's why I expect Shakir to do more.  He also played well in the playoffs for a rookie depth WR.  If Reid were our coach I might lean more your way.  But I didn't mention Dorsey, but I'm counting on him to screw it up.  Not happy about it, but counting on it.  

 

 

Quote

Sherfield this year will be a #3 WR behind Diggs and Davis, and unlike Kumerow, he was signed here to be a WR where as Kumerow was a backup in terms of technicality, but was mostly entirely here only for ST's play.  Sherfield will get more time on the field as a WR than Kumerow ever did.  

 

This right here is the lynchpin of our discussion.  You see that, but if I had to list the receivers, by number of catches this season among the WR/TE options, I would rank them as such: 

 

Diggs

Davis

Knox

Kincaid

Shakir

Harty 

Sherfield 

 

That right there is why we see things differently.  If Sherfield is in fact the #3 WR behind Diggs and Davis, I suspect he'll shatter that 10 and post a career-best season here.  Obviously I don't envision him being #3.  

 

 

Quote

... BUT...do you know that in 3 seasons, Davis only has a total of 3...just 3...100 yard games, one in each season?  The amount of big games and big plays gets grossly exaggerated around Davis given the opportunity he has had and in the offense he plays in.   Sherfield has never been the opportunity to either play with a QB like Allen nor have a role anywhere near Davis given he was buried behind very good to elite WR's his whole career.  

 

Davis was only 23 last season.  He's been incredibly young for the NFL.  He's several years away from the forefront of his prime.  It's a monumental mistake to cut or trade him, and they should extent him while the cost is cheap.  He will only improve.  Otherwise, 1st-Downs are 1st-Downs and TDs are TDs. 

 

As to QBs, Tua was more than enough QB for Sherfield to log more than 400 yards and a pair of TDs.  Look at Hill and Waddle as you cited.  In SF he was the 6th receiving option in terms of yards and receptions among WRs/TEs.  In his last two seasons in Arizona he was the 9th and 8th receiving option in terms of both yards and receptions there, and regardless of QB, he was 9th and 8th.  Otherwise Murray was not horrible.  IMO you're overemphasizing that.  

 

 

Quote

I not only wanted, but fully expected, we were drafting JuJu when we traded up for Zay Jones.  I had Zay as 3rd or 4th round WR that year. I talked myself into optimism, I mean he did have all those catches.  But you can check my posting history, I was very critical of Zay from the moment he totally lost us the game against the Panthers as a rookie when he ran a terrible route, almost tripped on his own feet causing him to stumble and drop the perfectly thrown game winning TD by Taylor. 

 

I'm glad to hear that.  I was critical of Jones when we drafted him.  I had him labeled as a bust out of the gate.  Nothing he did or played in in college translates to the NFL.  Most of his stats came in garbage time in 5 WR sets that are are rare in the NFL.  He also loaded up on second rate talent defensively.  I took massive heat for my post-draft take.  I as well was hoping to get JJ Smith-Shuster in that draft at that spot.  

 

 

Quote

To be honest, that is a realistic stat line here too.  Again, not saying that Sherfield is a future pro bowler here, the facts of the matter there are a lot of mouths to feed on this team, everyones personal stats I expect to go down from last year with the probability we will run a little bit more (Drafting Cook last year, adding Harris, then adding C'Yrus), then upgrading from Kumerow to Sherfield, upgrading from McKenzie to Harty (I do think Harty has more to offer as a WR than McKenzie), having Shakir entering as the primary slot WR, and now having Kincaid to split time in the slot as a Big Slot and also a 2nd TE in 12 personnel packages.  

 

Well, you said a mouthful there, NPI.  That's largely what I'm counting on to be honest, that's a lot of variables, and Sherfield's not pure slot WR.  I don't think that the team needs a "versatile" receiver as much as everyone makes out.  Particularly with a 1st-round versatile TE now.  To me, particularly when contrasted with his performances/stats, he's a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type, which is going to work against him, not for him.  We will see.  

 

Also, are we getting ready to diminish our last year's 5th round WR's role, Shakir?  Or will Shorter not play much?  What's Harty's role going to be?  If he stays healthy I suspect that it'll be more than Sherfield's.  You said it when you said that there are a lot of mouths, I simply don't see Sherfield getting much more than scraps.  If he does make the team, I can see him being inactive for some games even.  

 

 

Quote

Don't get me wrong, I totally agree that stat line is not going to happen...UNLESS another factor is in play like injuries play a role to create more opportunities or someone like Davis really struggles again and he starts cutting into his targets.

 

Sounds as if you're only marginally more optimistic than I am, if I'm even being optimistic.  LOL  

 

But, again, if as you say, he does turn out to be the #3 option after Diggs and Davis, then he'll post a career-best season here.  

 

 

Quote

I love this wager...this is what I meant by friendly, and love that it goes to a charity.  I agree to all your terms, they are very well thought out and fair.  The one clarity...is if he is cut because he missed time in camp/preseason with an injury it nullifies the bet.  He has no experience on this team, with Allen, or the playbook...so if he falls behind due to injury, like many guys, their spot could be in jeopardy with this loaded roster.  But if he is cut because he didn't earn a spot, absolutely I should lose that bet.   

 

That's very reasonable!  So, for $50 payable to some Bills related charity, either way, winner's choice, for an O/U of 10 receptions for Sherfield.   The wager becomes nullified if he's injured in camp, your call there, or if he isn't capable of playing at least 12 games.  So if he's released uninjured prior to or during the season otherwise, or just a roster cut, or if he's incapable of playing at least 12 games (inactive games where he's not injured count there) then it's good.  

 

Win win for all!  When I win I'll just tell you to pick the charity you like best.  LOL     

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thanks!  I really appreciate the intelligent discourse.  

 

That is a lucid, intelligent, well thought out argument.  Overruled!  

 

OK, w/o googling, what movie is that from?   If you're not a fan of it you may recognize the quote.  

 

I'll respond to a handful of your points.  I agree with much of what you wrote.  

 

I am rather enjoying the discussion my self  If I am being honest, I feel like you are coming off way better now than how you were phrasing your posts earlier.  These are well thought out and put together thoughts and fair opinions.  

 

Movie is easy...that is a comedy classic and definite big fan of My Cousin Vinny

 

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

 

No, but when a WR is kept for his STs contributions, you can typically write him off as much of a contributor in the receiving department was my meaning.  

 

Fair point, except this is how you see it:  There are ST players whose position designation is a formality (as they are ST guys mainly) and then there are positional guys who also can contribute on ST.  Kumerow, Taiwan, etc are ST guys whose positional designation has little meaning and will offer little to nothing there.  Sherfield to me is a WR who can also contribute on ST's.  

 

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

 

Here's the thing, I don't see it that much differently here.  We disagree as to the role on the depth chart that he'll take up, which largely explains the differences in our expectations.  But I will add that yes, he was behind Hill and Waddle in Miami, but he was the third option on a team bereft of receiving talent, and Hill was even injured and played through injury, which upped Sherfield's opportunity.  Still, the best he was able to make of that was 30/417/2.  And again, I cannot stress that terrible overall 2nd halves performance of his enough in this scenario.  So we'll see I guess.  

 

There's also an enormous gap between Hill 1,710/7 and Waddle 1,356/8, and Sherfield, their 3rd option, which also says something, quite a bit in fact.  

 

I don't see the gap that concerning considering they force fed Hill and Waddle so much and they still also made efforts to get the run game going.  And there is still the factor too of the much lower QB play given how much time Tua missed where lesser QB's are even less capable of spreading the ball around.  

 

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Honestly, Dorsey factors significantly into my assessment.  That's why I expect Shakir to do more.  He also played well in the playoffs for a rookie depth WR.  If Reid were our coach I might lean more your way.  But I didn't mention Dorsey, but I'm counting on him to screw it up.  Not happy about it, but counting on it.  

 

Bingo, we are right in line here...Dorsey is a major question mark for me.  Can he properly use the guys on the roster, get them all involved, is a LEGIT question mark based on last year.  He is definitely the biggest threat to guys like Sherfield and Harty getting involved in the offense.  Dorsey struggled last year to get Knox, Shakir, Cook, Hines, etc more involved in the passing game when we needed those guys to be.  

 

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

 

This right here is the lynchpin of our discussion.  You see that, but if I had to list the receivers, by number of catches this season among the WR/TE options, I would rank them as such: 

 

Diggs

Davis

Knox

Kincaid

Shakir

Harty 

Sherfield 

 

That right there is why we see things differently.  If Sherfield is in fact the #3 WR behind Diggs and Davis, I suspect he'll shatter that 10 and post a career-best season here.  Obviously I don't envision him being #3.  

 

There isn't a lot wrong with this order, but its also not as black and white as it reads.  Diggs and Davis are the clear WR1 and WR2 heading into camp, and without injury it will be week 1 too.  However, Davis struggled last year, his reputation is bigger than his on field results.  If he resembles last year, then I think Davis WR2 spot becomes more reminiscent of Sanders/Davis role in 2021 where Sanders was the WR2, but as the season went on Davis went from little opportunities to eating into some of Sanders targets as he got more playing time when the offense saw a boost from him being more involved.  So I can Sherfield getting some of Davis's targets potentially too.  

 

But further expanding on the list not being so black and white, we still spread the offense out and not only run 3 wide sets, but 4 and 5 wide too.  Allen likes to spread the ball around too, and at other positions where we have been deeper in the past on both sides of the ball, we used more of a rotation than a set depth chart to keep guys fresh.  This is probably the first year where we have that luxury at WR.  So Sherfield (under the assumption he produces when given opportunities) should see some opportunities to make some plays even if Davis bounces back.  

 

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

 

Davis was only 23 last season.  He's been incredibly young for the NFL.  He's several years away from the forefront of his prime.  It's a monumental mistake to cut or trade him, and they should extent him while the cost is cheap.  He will only improve.  Otherwise, 1st-Downs are 1st-Downs and TDs are TDs. 

 

I was high on Davis heading into last year, no so much this year.  I remain cautiously optimistic, but the lack of progress from him concerns me after 3 years.  His low catch rate is a career long issue, and he has a bigger reputation than he does big games.  I am skeptical we will pay him what he likely commands in FA next year, and even more skeptical we would pay him if he has a big year given we probably cant afford him in that case even if they were willing to pay it.    

 

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Well, you said a mouthful there, NPI.  That's largely what I'm counting on to be honest, that's a lot of variables, and Sherfield's not pure slot WR.  I don't think that the team needs a "versatile" receiver as much as everyone makes out.  Particularly with a 1st-round versatile TE now.  To me, particularly when contrasted with his performances/stats, he's a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type, which is going to work against him, not for him.  We will see.  

 

Also, are we getting ready to diminish our last year's 5th round WR's role, Shakir?  Or will Shorter not play much?  What's Harty's role going to be?  If he stays healthy I suspect that it'll be more than Sherfield's.  You said it when you said that there are a lot of mouths, I simply don't see Sherfield getting much more than scraps.  If he does make the team, I can see him being inactive for some games even.  

 

I loved the Shakir pick (thought he would go 2nd-3rd round) when we got him, and I am still high on him now.  That being said, as much as I like him, he hasn't proven anything yet and has one of the lowest target rates per routes run in NFL history which makes me a bit concerned if he is getting open enough or if Josh just wasn't looking for him because he had other open guys.  So I am still optimistic about Shakir, but he is still a question mark until he proves it on the field like anyone else. 

 

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

Sounds as if you're only marginally more optimistic than I am, if I'm even being optimistic.  LOL  

 

But, again, if as you say, he does turn out to be the #3 option after Diggs and Davis, then he'll post a career-best season here.  

 

That's very reasonable!  So, for $50 payable to some Bills related charity, either way, winner's choice, for an O/U of 10 receptions for Sherfield.   The wager becomes nullified if he's injured in camp, your call there, or if he isn't capable of playing at least 12 games.  So if he's released uninjured prior to or during the season otherwise, or just a roster cut, or if he's incapable of playing at least 12 games (inactive games where he's not injured count there) then it's good.  

 

Win win for all!  When I win I'll just tell you to pick the charity you like best.  LOL     

 

 

 

Yeah I don't have some unrealistic expectation here of Sherfield being some game changing addition that puts up 800+ yards, that is just impossible with all the mouths to feed.  Lets not forget, our RB's Cook and Hines should also see more targets too this year.  But I do think Sherfield is a clear upgrade to Kumerow and good insurance if Davis falters or we have any injuries.  

 

Love the bet...which for every intent is just to be fun, not to be proven "right" as none of this is certain, just all fun opinion.  I agree to it, and look forward to seeing me win it by week 5 hahaha.  

[Dr. Who]

22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I am rather enjoying the discussion my self  If I am being honest, I feel like you are coming off way better now than how you were phrasing your posts earlier.  These are well thought out and put together thoughts and fair opinions.  

 

Movie is easy...that is a comedy classic and definite big fan of My Cousin Vinny

 

 

Fair point, except this is how you see it:  There are ST players whose position designation is a formality (as they are ST guys mainly) and then there are positional guys who also can contribute on ST.  Kumerow, Taiwan, etc are ST guys whose positional designation has little meaning and will offer little to nothing there.  Sherfield to me is a WR who can also contribute on ST's.  

 

 

I don't see the gap that concerning considering they force fed Hill and Waddle so much and they still also made efforts to get the run game going.  And there is still the factor too of the much lower QB play given how much time Tua missed where lesser QB's are even less capable of spreading the ball around.  

 

 

Bingo, we are right in line here...Dorsey is a major question mark for me.  Can he properly use the guys on the roster, get them all involved, is a LEGIT question mark based on last year.  He is definitely the biggest threat to guys like Sherfield and Harty getting involved in the offense.  Dorsey struggled last year to get Knox, Shakir, Cook, Hines, etc more involved in the passing game when we needed those guys to be.  

 

 

There isn't a lot wrong with this order, but its also not as black and white as it reads.  Diggs and Davis are the clear WR1 and WR2 heading into camp, and without injury it will be week 1 too.  However, Davis struggled last year, his reputation is bigger than his on field results.  If he resembles last year, then I think Davis WR2 spot becomes more reminiscent of Sanders/Davis role in 2021 where Sanders was the WR2, but as the season went on Davis went from little opportunities to eating into some of Sanders targets as he got more playing time when the offense saw a boost from him being more involved.  So I can Sherfield getting some of Davis's targets potentially too.  

 

But further expanding on the list not being so black and white, we still spread the offense out and not only run 3 wide sets, but 4 and 5 wide too.  Allen likes to spread the ball around too, and at other positions where we have been deeper in the past on both sides of the ball, we used more of a rotation than a set depth chart to keep guys fresh.  This is probably the first year where we have that luxury at WR.  So Sherfield (under the assumption he produces when given opportunities) should see some opportunities to make some plays even if Davis bounces back.  

 

 

I was high on Davis heading into last year, no so much this year.  I remain cautiously optimistic, but the lack of progress from him concerns me after 3 years.  His low catch rate is a career long issue, and he has a bigger reputation than he does big games.  I am skeptical we will pay him what he likely commands in FA next year, and even more skeptical we would pay him if he has a big year given we probably cant afford him in that case even if they were willing to pay it.    

 

 

I loved the Shakir pick (thought he would go 2nd-3rd round) when we got him, and I am still high on him now.  That being said, as much as I like him, he hasn't proven anything yet and has one of the lowest target rates per routes run in NFL history which makes me a bit concerned if he is getting open enough or if Josh just wasn't looking for him because he had other open guys.  So I am still optimistic about Shakir, but he is still a question mark until he proves it on the field like anyone else. 

 

 

Yeah I don't have some unrealistic expectation here of Sherfield being some game changing addition that puts up 800+ yards, that is just impossible with all the mouths to feed.  Lets not forget, our RB's Cook and Hines should also see more targets too this year.  But I do think Sherfield is a clear upgrade to Kumerow and good insurance if Davis falters or we have any injuries.  

 

Love the bet...which for every intent is just to be fun, not to be proven "right" as none of this is certain, just all fun opinion.  I agree to it, and look forward to seeing me win it by week 5 hahaha.  

Too much amiability. You two are making me sick.

[Alphadawg7]

37 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Too much amiability. You two are making me sick.

 

This is fair 🤣

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is fair 🤣

Next you fellas can wager on whether Poona gets more snaps as a 1 or 3T. Should be some fascinating lengthy discussion. Be sure to cuss at him.

[PBF81]

46 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Too much amiability. You two are making me sick.

 

LOL, for some reason your comment made me think of this, typical forum form.  

 

 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I am rather enjoying the discussion my self  If I am being honest, I feel like you are coming off way better now than how you were phrasing your posts earlier.  These are well thought out and put together thoughts and fair opinions.  

 

Movie is easy...that is a comedy classic and definite big fan of My Cousin Vinny

 

Thanks!  Yeah, great movie.  

 

 

Quote

So I can Sherfield getting some of Davis's targets potentially too.  

 

Yeah, again, this is where we see things completely different.  I don't see him getting any of Davis' targets.  Allen, McD, Dorsey all like Davis.  

 

 

Quote

But further expanding on the list not being so black and white, we still spread the offense out and not only run 3 wide sets, but 4 and 5 wide too.  Allen likes to spread the ball around too, ... 

 

He spread it around a lot in '20 and '21, not nearly as much last season.  Dorsey!  (gotta say it like you'd say Newman!"   Also, gotta question how many 5 WR sets we see.  As well, in our 4 WR sets, I'm thinking that Kincaid is going to be doing the heavy lifting for newbies there.  We'll see.  Either that or he doesn't meet the expectations placed upon him as a rookie 1st-rounder.  That's an interesting conundrum for the team.  IMO if Kincaid isn't easily our 4th leading receiver, and assuming that Knox posts equal or comparable numbers, A, I'm not sure how this team improves much, and B, Beane's going to start taking some rabid heat.  

 

 

Quote

I was high on Davis heading into last year, no so much this year.  I remain cautiously optimistic, but the lack of progress from him concerns me after 3 years.  His low catch rate is a career long issue, and he has a bigger reputation than he does big games.  I am skeptical we will pay him what he likely commands in FA next year, and even more skeptical we would pay him if he has a big year given we probably cant afford him in that case even if they were willing to pay it.    

 

I was as well.  But here's the thing with Davis, and I'm going to put some numbers to it that I just ran.  He's primarily a deep guy, low-percentage routes, far from the high-percentage short stuff.  Now I agree that Allen needs to take advantage of the much higher-percentage of shorter passes like he did with Beasley here, if he's going to improve his overall play as a QB, but the fact is that those deeper receivers won't generally have as high catch%.  I tried to figure out how to embody that statistically, then it hit me.  

 

I just ran the catch% for the WRs that finished in the top-10 for Yards-per-Reception, and then went down to the first 10 WRs ranked starting at 21st, took out the two TEs and replaced 'em with the next two WRs, to keep it all to WRs, and calculated the Catch% for the two groups.  The findings were interesting.  

 

In the first category, deep WRs, obviously, it was 56.8%.  In that second group, average starting WRs, it was 64.8%.  That's incredibly significant for that particular analysis.  It's an 8% difference.  Granted, Davis was still marginally on the low-end, even in that group, but the greater statistical significance is in what I just cited.   Davante Adams was only 4 percentage points higher than Davis, and he finished third in the league in yardage after Jefferson and Hill, and first in TDs, as a comparison.  While most of those WRs were notably better than Davis in catch%, the best in the batch ranked 118th in catch%.  AJ Brown ranked 149th, and Adams ranked 177th, Davis 186th.  The average group ranking was in the 150s.  

 

Of the second group, the highest was 73.4% and the average, around 164.5, ranked in the 120s.  Three were in the 70s, five in the 60s, and two in the 50s.  

 

Of the first group, the highest was 64.8%, Davis was 2nd in the league btw in YPR, there are six in the 60s and 4 in the 50s.  Five in the second group were better than the best in the first group.  

 

In short, Davis, and what he's being asked to do, he's not outside the parameters of the typical metrics for that categorization.  

 

 

Quote

Lets not forget, our RB's Cook and Hines should also see more targets too this year.  But I do think Sherfield is a clear upgrade to Kumerow and good insurance if Davis falters or we have any injuries.  

 

Then there's that, McD's use of Hines, or non-use I should say, an outstanding receiving RB, was mindboggling last season.  As to Kumerow, I never thought much of him and it's absolutely no surprise to me that he's no longer on the team.  A lot of hype over him too when he got here, and in his three seasons here ombined he barely matched his yardage from his worst season in GB, had one fewer catch, and had the same 1 TD.  As I recall, the talk about his being another deep guy was similar to that for Sherfield now.  Just sayin'.  

 

 

Quote

Love the bet...which for every intent is just to be fun, not to be proven "right" as none of this is certain, just all fun opinion.  I agree to it, and look forward to seeing me win it by week 5 hahaha.  

 

Yeah, thanks!   Me too.  LOL at the week 5, but remember, right now I'm ahead here.  LOL  

 

 

[Poleshifter]

On 5/10/2023 at 6:46 AM, hondo in seattle said:

Thanks for sharing.

 

Here's another good one - by our old friend, Tyler Dunne

 

https://www.golongtd.com/p/the-trent-sherfield-prophecy

 

I'm rooting for him to have a great year.

 

 

This is a great insightful article. I hope the HC and front office people read it.

 

Thank you for posting it.

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Poleshifter said:

This is a great insightful article. I hope the HC and front office people read it.

 

Thank you for posting it.

 

You're welcome! 

 

After I read it, (1) I began really rooting for the kid, and (2) started thinking and wondering if we signed someone more talented than his career stats may indicate.  

 

I'm glad the OP started this thread because Sherfield's been under the radar.  

[Poleshifter]

35 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

You're welcome! 

 

After I read it, (1) I began really rooting for the kid, and (2) started thinking and wondering if we signed someone more talented than his career stats may indicate.  

 

I'm glad the OP started this thread because Sherfield's been under the radar.  

I was really impressed with his play in the Dolphins game last year. I hope the Bills give him opportunities on offense.

 

[mrags]

15 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I didn't say he's the answer.  I clearly stated he's not one of our top options at the position.  I clearly stated he's our speed guy.  Quit putting words in my mouth.

 

McKenzie had 6 more catches and 1 more TD and you're acting that's an insurmountable feat to get lol.  

 

 

 

The problem is it’s not an insurmountable feat. It was pretty poor. The point is the guys we picked up have produced less than what we had. Which was poor. Expecting more out of them than what they have historically done is the problem. 

[Royale with Cheese]

6 hours ago, mrags said:

The problem is it’s not an insurmountable feat. It was pretty poor. The point is the guys we picked up have produced less than what we had. Which was poor. Expecting more out of them than what they have historically done is the problem. 

You have the most unrealistic expectations ever, that’s the problem.

 

The average #4-#5 WR options typically will haul in roughly 35 receptions a season across the NFL.  But when our guys do it…its poor.

[mrags]

17 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

You have the most unrealistic expectations ever, that’s the problem.

 

The average #4-#5 WR options typically will haul in roughly 35 receptions a season across the NFL.  But when our guys do it…its poor.

Ugh. For the last time. People are so coercing more out of them than 35 receptions. They are sure talking like it. And the Bills are sure paying Harty more than enough to expect more. 
 

im done with the argument. it’s proven statistically they are not even as good as we’ve had. We will be disappointed when the year is up is my opinion. Take it however you want. I’m clearly not Changing your mind and you clearly aren’t changing mine. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, mrags said:

Ugh. For the last time. People are so coercing more out of them than 35 receptions. They are sure talking like it. And the Bills are sure paying Harty more than enough to expect more. 
 

im done with the argument. it’s proven statistically they are not even as good as we’ve had. We will be disappointed when the year is up is my opinion. Take it however you want. I’m clearly not Changing your mind and you clearly aren’t changing mine. 

 

I think actually 36 catches, 570 yards and 3 TDs which is what Harty managed in his last healthy season is kinda in the range of what the Bills are paying for, especially when you factor in circa 900 return yards that year too (whether he is in the mix as a returner for the Bills TBC).

 

It is right there with the Kendrick Bourne, Mercole Hardman, Parris Campbell valuations for similar production levels. For a 2nd contract #3 receiver with inside / outside flex who you want to get deep that is pretty much the market rate. If he is sub 500 yards and 3 touchdowns I think we can call it a miss. If he ends up above 650 and 4 touchdowns it is a hit. In between those ranges is par.

Edited May 13, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Royale with Cheese]

9 hours ago, mrags said:

Ugh. For the last time. People are so coercing more out of them than 35 receptions. They are sure talking like it. And the Bills are sure paying Harty more than enough to expect more. 
 

im done with the argument. it’s proven statistically they are not even as good as we’ve had. We will be disappointed when the year is up is my opinion. Take it however you want. I’m clearly not Changing your mind and you clearly aren’t changing mine. 

Yeah, it’s impossible for a player to have career years with new teams.  What is everyone thinking?

 

Jordan Poyer only had 2 INT’s in his career prior to coming into Buffalo.  He was statistically proven to be worse than Corey Graham who he replaced.  LOL for McDermott thinking Poyer would be able to replace Graham’s production.

 

Stefon Diggs averaged about 75 catches  and about 900 yards a season with MN.  Is that what he’s averaging in Buffalo?

I am not sure there is a more box score evaluator than you.  

Edited May 13, 2023 by Royale with Cheese

[Royale with Cheese]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think actually 36 catches, 570 yards and 3 TDs which is what Harty managed in his last healthy season is kinda in the range of what the Bills are paying for, especially when you factor in circa 900 return yards that year too (whether he is in the mix as a returner for the Bills TBC).

 

It is right there with the Kendrick Bourne, Mercole Hardman, Parris Campbell valuations for similar production levels. For a 2nd contract #3 receiver with inside / outside flex who you want to get deep that is pretty much the market rate. If he is sub 500 yards and 3 touchdowns I think we can call it a miss. If he ends up above 650 and 4 touchdowns it is a hit. In between those ranges is par.

If that’s what Harty produces statistically but also makes the deep safety have to peak and take a step his way…big win for the Bills.

 

I would think that Harty would benefit someone like Kincaid the most.  

[Mr. WEO]

On 5/10/2023 at 9:22 AM, RVJ said:

From last year. Not sure if it's been posted before.

 

https://www.miamidolphins.com/news/five-things-trent-sherfield

 

then they cut him?

[Doc]

45 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

then they cut him?

He signed a one-year deal with them last year.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

He signed a one-year deal with them last year.

 

why not resign though?

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

why not resign though?

 

No idea.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

14 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

No idea.

TS answered it himself.

 

He wanted to play with an elite QB. 

[Doc]

8 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

TS answered it himself.

 

He wanted to play with an elite QB. 

 

I missed that.  Kinda figured but didn't want to say it without knowing for sure.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

The best thing about TS is he can step up and produce. This isn’t Jake Kumero. He had 30 catches for 417 yards last year, those are very solid #3 numbers. If Shakir and Hardy can’t cut it in the slot, I’m very comfortable with him. He’s got underrated wheels too.

 

I’m sure that played a huge role in him signing here, he very legitimately could win the slot role this summer and bring an edge to our offense.

Edited May 13, 2023 by TheyCallMeAndy

[Mr. WEO]

19 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

TS answered it himself.

 

He wanted to play with an elite QB. 

 

He turned down another contract with Miami?

[PBF81]

On 5/11/2023 at 2:47 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

I love this wager...this is what I meant by friendly, and love that it goes to a charity.  I agree to all your terms, they are very well thought out and fair.  The one clarity...is if he is cut because he missed time in camp/preseason with an injury it nullifies the bet.  He has no experience on this team, with Allen, or the playbook...so if he falls behind due to injury, like many guys, their spot could be in jeopardy with this loaded roster.  But if he is cut because he didn't earn a spot, absolutely I should lose that bet.   

 

I'm here to pay up!  LOL 

 

Talk about under the wire though, he came into the game needing the three catches that he got.   He averaged 1 every other game and didn't even break 100 on the season and his only TD was yesterday.  Good game for it.   

 

As a consolation prize I'm left with my position being accurate nonetheless.     

 

Anyway, PM me your Bills related charity destination.  Details are on page 4.  I'll submit in your name if you want me to.  Happy to do it.    

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

I'm here to pay up!  LOL 

 

Talk about under the wire though, he came into the game needing the three catches that he got.   He averaged 1 every other game and didn't even break 100 on the season and his only TD was yesterday.  Good game for it.   

 

As a consolation prize I'm left with my position being accurate nonetheless.     

 

Anyway, PM me your Bills related charity destination.  Details are on page 4.  I'll submit in your name if you want me to.  Happy to do it.    

 

 

Well Kudos to you sir, that’s a classy move to go find this yourself and bring it to the forefront again.  I honestly forgot about this great convo we had and I’m double impressed that you both remembered it and went and found it on your own.
 

Yes, technically I won the bet, but in reality I don’t think either of us really come out of this being right or wrong.  
 

Sherfield wound up buried behind Diggs and Davis here, and with 2 TE sets, Kincaid even when not in a 2 TE set, Shakir, and our RBs the reality became that Sherfield wound up more buried here really than Miami.

 

The biggest issue really was Davis value as a blocker on runs and screens just never took him off the field.  So Trent got very few snaps, but I’m glad he made the biggest one of the season matter this weekend.  

So here is what I propose…I think we both had some things here that were right about, and this was about as close to a draw as you can get without being an actual draw.  
 

I’m willing to call it a draw, or if you still want to make a donation then since I’m willing to call it a draw, then it’s really your conscious decision to make a donation so it should be to a charity of your choice and in your name.

 

Again, class act and look forward to next one

[PBF81]

 

[Alphadawg7]

59 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

Bahahahaha

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Bahahahaha

 

Apparently I'm the Black Knight.  

 

 

[Bills!Win!]

Trent Sherfield known for 2 well-known plays for the Bills

 

-The butt punt 

 

I just made this one up 

 

-The South Beach Reach 

[NewEra]

Are we afc east champions had we not signed Harty and Sherfield?

[julian]

18 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Are we afc east champions had we not signed Harty and Sherfield?

Yes, but it’s cool those two dudes contributed in such a big spot, must have been a great feeling for them in that locker room after the game.

[The BLUES Brothers]

18 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Are we afc east champions had we not signed Harty and Sherfield?

Interesting...No question they made their impact on the outcome of this pinitol game