Draft Success Measured by AV - Part III

[Success]

It's too early to grade last years draft, imo.  I think Elam, Shakir & Cook were all used too sparingly to gauge, and think all of them will be big contributors moving forward.  

 

And we have no idea yet what we have w/ Bernard.  He wasn't supposed to be a rookie starter.

 

[dave mcbride]

4 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Updating my analysis of league-wide draft success for the third time. 

 

I'm linking the previous two versions here as well as including updated charts based on some requests I've received.

 

The old posts below explain the methodology and provide a snapshot of where teams stood at those points in time. 

 

2021

 

League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive

 

2022

*UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive

 

 

 

 

2017 - 2019

 

 

 

2020 - 2022

 

 

 

 

Does the 2020 number factor in their first round pick, Stefon Diggs? Because he sure as hell a Bills draft pick that year. 

[SCBills]

8 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

QB hides a lot.  In comparison, would you take Douglas vs Beane aside from the QB misses?   The thing is there are like 10 guys at any given time in the NFL that ever stand out as a Qb, you have one, you win games.  
 

Aside from Allen, I think Beane would be gone.  It’s not only the draft, but his FA and his handling of the 5th year options has been awful too. 

 

I'd agree.  Everyone would likely be gone.  That's just how it goes in the NFL.  If you can't lock down the QB position, you're a year to year HC/GM.  

 

Outside Allen, he's definitely been a mixed bag.

 

Day 1 has been solid.  Diggs, Edmunds, Rousseau (good).  Oliver (bad).  Elam (TBD).

 

Day 2 has been an absolute mess.

 

Day 3 has also been solid.

 

Free Agency has been below average.  Way too much focus on OL depth/flex and DL rotation (which has produced poor results).  Not enough focus on WR and legit protection for Allen.  We also have paid quite a bit for ST's depth guys.. a strange luxury to focus on when you have such an expensive roster.  

 

Jones and Von were steps in the right direction.  Not much we can do when our two best DL, both acquired via FA, missed the game that ended our season.

 

Nice point about the 5th year options.   If we were always going to extend Edmunds, why on earth did we wait, knowing this likely cost us a few million when we put a better DL in front of him for much of the season in his contract year?  Why did we pick up Oliver's 5th year option?  That 11.5M could be used to sign a premium OL or towards a Meyers or OBJ in FA.  Maybe we trade him, but this team continues to NOT do things that seem obvious to everyone, so... 

[MJS]

21 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Ok, then hold him accountable for the failures of his own.   The fact is he tried to say Cincinnati is better because they have been drafting higher and KC has been drafting below us and finding better players.  

Hold him accountable for having average and above average drafts? What are you proposing? How do we hold Beane accountable?

[BullBuchanan]

If this model suggests that the Bills are the best team in the league at drafting, I might suggest the model doesn't have much value. In 5 years we've drafted 2 great players and a handful of good ones.

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If this model suggests that the Bills are the best team int he league at drafting, I might suggest the model doesn't have value. In 5 years we've drafted 2 great players and a handful of good ones.

And this was born out of statements exactly like this… other teams aren’t doing much better or better at all. 
 

They were very good 17-19 and middle of the pack 20-22. What’s wrong about that? 

[newcam2012]

54 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

6-1 / 285 hardly screams 1 tech or even 3 tech. We've swung and missed on AJ & Boogie. And I'm not even convinced Groot will be more than a 8-9 sack guy.  We need an elite pass rusher after Von leaves which will probably be in 2 years. Would've been nice if Ed was more dominant but it didn't happen. I'm sure we haven't seen the end of McD grasping at defensive players. But if Beane doesn't put his foot down and demand a shift to offense, they'll all lose the locker room.

I agree. I think this year is crucial for the coaching staff. If things go sour, I can totally see the players like Diggs expressing his dissatisfaction. It could be the start of turmoil. 

 

McD will be on the hot sear but likely be safe. The scapegoats will be Frazier and Dorsey. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

And this was born out of statements exactly like this… other teams aren’t doing much better or better at all. 
 

They were very good 17-19 and middle of the pack 20-22. What’s wrong about that? 

What's wrong with it, is they weren't very good at all. They ranked highly in this model, which is great but not sure that correlates to successful drafts.

Take out 2017 because that was Whaley's draft, and the results are not in the Bills' favor at all. Looking at 1st-3rd round picks across each draft of the last 5 years is pretty disappointing. I think what's skewing this is the Bills starting players that shouldn't be starting.

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

What's wrong with it, is they weren't very good at all. They ranked highly in this model, which is great but not sure that correlates to successful drafts.

Take out 2017 because that was Whaley's draft, and the results are not in the Bills' favor at all. Looking at 1st-3rd round picks across each draft of the last 5 years is pretty disappointing. I think what's skewing this is the Bills starting players that shouldn't be starting.

If they weren’t very good what does it say about the other teams that are graded on the same scale? 

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I agree. I think this year is crucial for the coaching staff. If things go sour, I can totally see the players like Diggs expressing his dissatisfaction. It could be the start of turmoil. 

 

McD will be on the hot sear but likely be safe. The scapegoats will be Frazier and Dorsey. 

 

Hate to break the news to you, but McD is not only NOT on the hot seat, it's probably about as ice cold as it could get.  You are dreaming if you think he is going anywhere without multiple losing seasons with a good team.

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

If they weren’t very good what does it say about the other teams that are graded on the same scale? 

it says they grade poorly on a model. You can't use a single model to determine truth. They are inputs from which insights must be gleaned. They don't tell you how to interpret the data or whether the data is valid.

You could create a model of career earnings of people based on their favorite color and find a runaway with people who loved orange and found that those who liked green earned the least. That wouldn't mean it was a reliable predictor of anything.

[JGMcD2]

7 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

it says they grade poorly on a model. You can't use a single model to determine truth. They are inputs from which insights must be gleaned. They don't tell you how to interpret the data or whether the data is valid.

You could create a model of career earnings of people based on their favorite color and find a runaway with people who loved orange and found that those who liked green earned the least. That wouldn't mean it was a reliable predictor of anything.

Except it’s based on something that measures a football player’s performance and we are talking about football players and their performance in the context of the draft…. 

 

It’s far more reliable than your anecdote of salaries and colors or your personal opinion of “2 great players and a handful of good ones.” 
 

Also, this isn’t intended to be a “predictor” of anything… it’s an evaluation of the past. 
 

Nobody implied this was perfect. Why don’t you tell me how you’d go about objectively measuring past draft success? 

Edited February 8, 2023 by JGMcD2

[BullBuchanan]

10 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Except it’s based on something that measures a football player’s performance and we are talking about football players and their performance in the context of the draft…. 

 

It’s far more reliable than your anecdote of salaries and colors or your personal opinion of “2 great players and a handful of good ones.” 
 

Also, this isn’t intended to be a “predictor” of anything… it’s an evaluation of the past. 
 

Nobody implied this was perfect. 

Yes, but you understand that are an infinite number of ways you could try to evaluate success and it doesn't mean that any of those models have to accurately do so, right?

This model ranks Wyatt Teller as a 5th round pick that has 2 2nd team all pros and 2 pro bowls as a 29 which is equal to how they rank Ed Oliver as a 9th overall pick.

Cody Ford is a 15 and Dawson Knox is a 16...

John Miller (remember him?) is a 31.

If that doesn't make you reconsider treating this in a HIGHLY skeptical manner, I can't help you.

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[ngbills]

3 hours ago, HeHateMe said:

If the Browns drafted Allen, Beane would probably have been fired at this point.  His drafts haven't been good.  

We would likely have drafted Sam Darnold...

[SCBills]

26 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

And this was born out of statements exactly like this… other teams aren’t doing much better or better at all. 
 

They were very good 17-19 and middle of the pack 20-22. What’s wrong about that? 

 

It's just a different world that we're now living in.  Every decision has to be weighed against the question "Does this help us win a Super Bowl"?

 

As of right now, we can't even get back to the AFC Championship Game.

 

The reason for that is because KC and Cincinnati also have elite QB's and are out-performing us in recent drafts and off-season decision making... amongst other issues like being superior to us in terms of coaching and coordinators. 

 

We could be better in coaching, free agency and drafting than every other team in the AFC but the Chiefs and Bengals... but if we can't get past either of them when it matters, that's a massive problem. 

 

Von going down was a killer.  There should be some grace for that.  If Chris Jones goes down like Von did, KC is not in the Super Bowl.  However, when we're at 3 years in a row of this.. you start to lose the fanbase when it comes to, perhaps, valid excuses (Von, Hyde, Hamlin, Kim etc.,)

[BADOLBILZ]

Where Beane has really failed is in free agency.

 

In 5 offseason the only "value" free agent he's added and gotten production from is Daryl Williams.

 

It's hard to be that inefficient. 

 

All the good external free agents he signed he paid top of the market for........even last season when money was tight............and the amount he grossly overpaid to some in those 5 offseasons is staggering.

 

Not just the 2018 class where he dumped about $100M on dud starters..........it's all the $6M-$7M aav deals for backups like Nsekhe, Norman, Klein, Butler etc...........you can't pay backups that kind of money.     

[JGMcD2]

34 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Yes, but you understand that are an infinite number of ways you could try to evaluate success and it doesn't mean that any of those models have to accurately do so, right?

This model ranks Wyatt Teller as a 5th round pick that has 2 2nd team all pros and 2 pro bowls as a 29 which is equal to how they rank Ed Oliver as a 9th overall pick.

Cody Ford is a 15 and Dawson Knox is a 16...

John Miller (remember him?) is a 31.

If that doesn't make you reconsider treating this in a HIGHLY skeptical manner, I can't help you.

Well you just proved that you didn’t read how this was done… I’m not going to explain it all over again just for you. If you’d like to go back and understand how it was done you’re more than welcome to. 
 

At that point I’ll be more than willing to hear your criticism. 

 

FWIW the Bills are actually penalized for Wyatt Teller because he didn't have that success with them... they received a negative point value for Teller.

 

Ed Oliver received a positive score albeit nowhere close to 29... it was around 5 or 6 points. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Charles Romes]

4 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Kansas City has worse drafting positions than we do every year, but they rank 4th overall.  That pretty much falls on Beane and his college scouting dept.

 

We used a second on Cook when there were decent OL available, they found Pacheco under our noses [Rutgers] for a 7th.

the pressure of striking out with highly drafted RBs kicked in so they panicked and had to expend even more draft capital. 

[BullBuchanan]

18 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Well you just proved that you didn’t read how this was done… I’m not going to explain it all over again just for you. 
 

If you’d like to go back and understand how it was done you’re more than welcome to. 
 

At that point I’ll be more than willing to hear your criticism. 

 

FWIW the Bills are actually penalized for Wyatt Teller because he didn't have that success with them...

no, I read it. Your model is flawed because it's based on a known bad value.

This doesn't work. It's definitely an admirable attempt, but the underlying data isn't any good.|

 

 

"What I did was found the average value for a player drafted in each round (1-7) in each year (2017-2019) and the calculated what I am calling the Net Drafted Accumulated Value (NETDrAV) for each pick in each round. I only compared each draft to itself. I then found the Total Net Drafted Accumulated Value (TOT_NETDrAV) for each team in each draft and ranked them against each other. Rather than just looking at how much raw value the Bills brought in as compared to the 31 other teams, this gives an idea of how much extra value they extracted in each round as compared to the 31 other teams in the league. 

 

TOT_NETDrAV is the AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

TOT_NETCarAV is just the pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class."

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[John from Riverside]

I don’t suppose that anything is taken into account that McDermott just likes to play as veterans and these young guys are waiting for their chance?

[JGMcD2]

5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

no, I read it. Your model is flawed because it's based on a known bad value.

This doesn't work. It's definitely an admirable attempt, but the underlying data isn't any good.|

 

 

"What I did was found the average value for a player drafted in each round (1-7) in each year (2017-2019) and the calculated what I am calling the Net Drafted Accumulated Value (NETDrAV) for each pick in each round. I only compared each draft to itself. I then found the Total Net Drafted Accumulated Value (TOT_NETDrAV) for each team in each draft and ranked them against each other. Rather than just looking at how much raw value the Bills brought in as compared to the 31 other teams, this gives an idea of how much extra value they extracted in each round as compared to the 31 other teams in the league. 

 

TOT_NETDrAV is the AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

TOT_NETCarAV is just the pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class."

Known bad value according to whom?

 

What value should be used to measure instead?

Edited February 8, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Elam is TBD. Showed signs of being a good/great pick - we knew it was going to be an adjustment. 

 

Rousseau was actually a REALLY good value for where they picked. They can't really control much else. Only way the Bills would have gotten a significantly better player was if they picked in the top 12 picks that year. 

 

Oliver was over-drafted but isn't a bad player - not awful value but not great either. 

 

Edmunds is better than OK. Not going to turn this into a Tremaine Edmunds thread.

 

Allen was a home run. 

 

I'd have to look, but I'd argue RD1 has been better than OK when compared to the rest of the league. 

 

It really is amazing how people think every other team drafts superstar players in the first round every year.

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

It really is amazing how people think every other team drafts superstar players in the first round every year.

Highest concentration of them is in the top 10. 

 

You're lucky if you find one after that in RD1... you're REALLY lucky if you find one after RD1. 

[Coach Tuesday]

Beane generally has drafted high floor players, many at non-premium positions.  It skews the overall results in his favor, because many of his draft picks are still in the league.  But other than Allen he has yet to hit a grand slam at a premium position in the draft.  Rousseau is trending that way.  Oliver has been too inconsistent.  Epenesa and Basham and Ford are trending toward busts.  Elam is an unknown but still feels like a panic pick.  He drafted one great offensive linemen and traded him away for peanuts.  Other than that, he's drafted a bunch of serviceable players at non-premium positions who remain in the NFL.  Straight down the fairway - except last year's draft, which was a disaster at the worst possible time.  He needs to start hitting on high-ceiling premium players or the talent gap between the Bills and their rivals is going to widen.

[BullBuchanan]

59 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Known bad value according to whom?

the wAV of guard John Miller is 31 and the guard Wyatt Teller has a wAV of 29
the wAV of WR Sammy Watkins is 48 and the wAV of WR Justin Jefferson is 39

I'd say the model is flawed to everyone who has ever watched football.
 

59 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

What value should be used to measure instead?

Great question. A model needs to start with questions, and you asked some good ones while calculating your formula but you need to backtest it to be sure that it gives accurate results. The more accurate you try to be, the less reliable it's likely to be, so you need a reliable grade of performance first and foremost. There are multiple other problems that need to be solved for. An example of some:

If you're weighting against draft position, you need to consider the difference of value between pick value within a round as the #1 overall pick is much different than the #32 pick and they don't average out over time since it's based on performance, not chance. You should really be grading performance against that position int he draft, but statistical significance will be impossible to obtain since there haven't been enough #1 picks, and you'd have to grade performance for all players ever at that slot, and there may be position bias.

If you're grading performance, you need to make sure you're grading performance against games played, expected games played and role. If you drafted Breece Hall and he was an all pro for half the season and then went down due to injury, you need to be careful about how that compares to a guy that played all 16 games but was less impressive. Likewise if a DB was drafted in the 6th round but was a standout special teamer, you need to ensure he ranks comparably against a player who played a lot more downs in a DB role but didn't perform well.

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

the wAV of guard John Miller is 31 and the guard Wyatt Teller has a wAV of 29
the wAV of WR Sammy Watkins is 48 and the wAV of WR Justin Jefferson is 39

I'd say the model is flawed to everyone who has ever watched football.
 

Great question. A model needs to start with questions, and you asked some good ones while calculating your formula but you need to backtest it to be sure that it gives accurate results. The more accurate you try to be, the less reliable it's likely to be, so you need a reliable grade of performance first and foremost. There are multiple other problems that need to be solved for. An example of some:

If you're weighting against draft position, you need to consider the difference of value between pick value within a round as the #1 overall pick is much different than the #32 pick and they don't average out over time since it's based on performance, not chance.

If you're grading performance, you need to make sure you're grading performance against games played, expected games played and role. If you drafted Breece Hall and he was an all pro for half the season and then went down due to injury, you need to be careful about how that compares to a guy that played all 16 games but was less impressive. Likewise if a DB was drafted in the 6th round but was a standout special teamer, you need to ensure he ranks comparably against a player who played a lot more downs in a DB role but didn't perform well.

 

AV is a sum of their career total, I think you are simply not understanding it.  Watkins has a 51 AV and 9 seasons, meaning he averages 5.7 AV per year.  Jefferson has a 41 AV and 3 seasons meaning he has an average of 13.7. If Jefferson simply puts up similar numbers, he would have almost 123 AV in the same time period as Watkins.  

 

Trying to use Career AV doesn't work unless you are comparing the same number of years. You would need to take AV/year if you are trying to use it compare players in the way you are trying to use it for, otherwise it makes no sense.

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

AV is a sum of their career total, I think you are simply not understanding it.  Watkins has a 51 AV and 9 seasons, meaning he averages 5.7 AV per year.  Jefferson has a 41 AV and 3 seasons meaning he has an average of 13.7. If Jefferson simply puts up similar numbers, he would have almost 123 AV in the same time period as Watkins.  

 

Trying to use Career AV doesn't work unless you are comparing the same number of years. You would need to take AV/year if you are trying to use it compare players in the way you are trying to use it for, otherwise it makes no sense.

I understand it just fine. I'm using the weighted AV.

Using AV of the player's rookie year alone would be a far worse way to judge the performance of a draft. The chiefs would get a 0 for Mahomes in 2017 despite drafting the best QB in 20 years

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I understand it just fine. I'm using the weighted AV.

Using AV of the player's rookie year alone would be a far worse way to judge the performance of a draft. The chiefs would get a 0 for Mahomes in 2017 despite drafting the best QB in 20 years

Ok but I'm not using weighted AV?

 

I'm using DrAV...

[BullBuchanan]

12 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Ok but I'm not using weighted AV?

 

I'm using DrAV...

Which is a metric you invented right?

You're using this definition to determine what players had good seasons vs poor ones using AV

"Offense

Every team gets this many points to divvy up among its offensive players:

team_offense_points = 100 * (team offensive points per drive) / (league average offensive points per drive),

where

offensive points per drive = (7*(rushTD+passTD) + 3*FG) / (rushTD + passTD + turnovers + punts + FGA)

Offensive line

As a unit, the offensive line for a given team will share this many points:

team_points_for_o_line = 5 / 11 * team_offense_points

For each offensive lineman (and fullback and tight end), we define:

individual_points = [(games played) + 5*(games started)*(pos_multiplier)] * (all_pro_multiplier),

where pos_multiplier = 1.2 for tackles, 1.0 for guards and centers, 0.3 for fullbacks, and 0.2 for tight ends,

and all_pro_multiplier = 1.9 for first-team AP all-pro, 1.6 for second-team AP all-pro, and 1.3 for a pro bowler who was not first- or second-team all-pro. [NOTE: all_pro_multiplier is for tackles, guards, and centers only, not fullbacks or tight ends.]

Finally, each individual player receives this many points:

approx_value = (individual_points) / (sum of individual_points for all players on team) * (team_points_for_o_line)"

Did you actually read that when you came up with this and decided it was viable? John Miller's second season had a 9 - which is better than all of Wyatt teller's years but 1 where he had 10. A model that grades like that can't be relied upon as an indicator of success. it's MASSIVELY skewed in favor of offensive points scored rather than individual contribution.

Spencer Brown registered a 9 this year, and I think we can all agree he's atrocious. that score of 9 would have outperformed 7 of Orlando Pace's seasons.

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[JGMcD2]

11 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Which is a metric you invented right?

You're using this definition to determine what players had good seasons vs poor ones using AV

"Offense

Every team gets this many points to divvy up among its offensive players:

team_offense_points = 100 * (team offensive points per drive) / (league average offensive points per drive),

where

offensive points per drive = (7*(rushTD+passTD) + 3*FG) / (rushTD + passTD + turnovers + punts + FGA)

Offensive line

As a unit, the offensive line for a given team will share this many points:

team_points_for_o_line = 5 / 11 * team_offense_points

For each offensive lineman (and fullback and tight end), we define:

individual_points = [(games played) + 5*(games started)*(pos_multiplier)] * (all_pro_multiplier),

where pos_multiplier = 1.2 for tackles, 1.0 for guards and centers, 0.3 for fullbacks, and 0.2 for tight ends,

and all_pro_multiplier = 1.9 for first-team AP all-pro, 1.6 for second-team AP all-pro, and 1.3 for a pro bowler who was not first- or second-team all-pro. [NOTE: all_pro_multiplier is for tackles, guards, and centers only, not fullbacks or tight ends.]

Finally, each individual player receives this many points:

approx_value = (individual_points) / (sum of individual_points for all players on team) * (team_points_for_o_line)"

Did you actually read that when you came up with this and decided it was viable? John Miller's second season had a 9 - which is better than all of Wyatt teller's years but 1 where he had 10. A model that grades like that can't be relied upon as an indicator of success. it's MASSIVELY skewed in favor of offensive points scored rather than individual contribution.

Spencer Brown registered a 9 this year, and I think we can all agree he's atrocious.

I didn't create DrAV... it's listed on PFR. I'm finding the value a team is extracting compared to their peer in a given draft. Not comparing across drafts... it's in comparison to the available talent pool in a given draft. 

 

Again, if you have a better publicly available stat let me know. Be sure to let publications like the Washington Post and The Athletic know too... 

[BullBuchanan]

3 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I didn't create DrAV... it's listed on PFR. I'm finding the value a team is extracting compared to their peer in a given draft. Not comparing across drafts... it's in comparison to the available talent pool in a given draft. 

 

Again, if you have a better publicly available stat let me know. Be sure to let publications like the Washington Post and The Athletic know too... 

PFF's rating would be far better than attempting to asses draft pick performance based on overall team performance as AV appears to be doing. That at least grades a player independently.

AV may actually be a useful counter metric as it tells you what players performed on strong teams so a player with a high PFF and a low AV may be better than one with a High/High

With respect to journalists using these values, they aren't statisticians. As I mentioned, you're free to create whatever model you want comprised of whatever metrics you deem relevant, but it's the questions you ask when creating it and the insights you glean from it that matter and come under scrutiny.

In this case, I think the formula for AV isn't telling you which players performed the best, so it isn't a useful metric when considering who had a strong draft.

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[CookieG]

Im just going ot mention this with a smile.  Seems appropriate, considering the Eagles are in the SB and many consider them the most comeplete roster in the league.

 

It was written in November of 2020 by some Philly "beat writer". Does it sound familiar?

 

1. In 2013, the Eagles drafted Lane Johnson and Zach Ertz. Since then, Howie Roseman’s drafts have landed the Eagles exactly one Pro Bowl player, and that’s Carson Wentz. The only defensive player Roseman has ever drafted who’s made a Pro Bowl is Fletcher Cox, the 12th pick in the 2012 draft. One defensive Pro Bowler in nine drafts (not counting this year). He’s never found a defensive Pro Bowler after the 12th pick overall. Wentz is also the only Pro Bowler Roseman has drafted who’ll be in his 20s on opening day next year. It’s not just J.J. Arcega-Whiteside instead of D.J. Metcalf. This has been happening for years. Scrounging up functional starters from the late rounds or the practice squad or the waiver wire is fine. But you need stars to win big. Studs. Elite players. And Howie’s failure to deliver star power to this roster has made it virtually impossible for the Eagles to compete on a regular basis with the NFL’s best teams. Maybe Miles Sanders or Dallas Goedert becomes a full-fledged star, but right now there isn’t a single elite player in his 20s on this roster, and that’s a damning indictment of Roseman’s draft record. Every GM has misses. Every GM has big misses. But you can’t afford to have the big misses without the big hits. Doug Pederson has been awful. Wentz has been terrible. But when you look at the Eagles’ decline, it all starts in the GM’s office.

 

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/howie-rosemans-shocking-draft-record-and-more-roobs-random-observations

[JGMcD2]

19 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

PFF's rating would be far better than attempting to asses draft pick performance based on overall team performance as AV appears to be doing. That at least grades a player independently.

AV may actually be a useful counter metric as it tells you what players performed on strong teams so a player with a high PFF and a low AV may be better than one with a High/High

With respect to journalists using these values, they aren't statisticians. As I mentioned, you're free to create whatever model you want comprised of whatever metrics you deem relevant, but it's the questions you ask when creating it and the insights you glean from it that matter and come under scrutiny.

In this case, I think the formula for AV isn't telling you which players performed the best, so it isn't a useful metric when considering who had a strong draft.

Publicly available... are you shelling out $200 for me to get a PFF subscription?

 

Weren't you also complaining about All-Pro not being factored in... must have conveniently glossed over the Pro-Bowl and All-Pro multiplier used in AV.

Edited February 8, 2023 by JGMcD2

[BullBuchanan]

14 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Publicly available... are you shelling out $200 for me to get a PFF subscription?

 

Weren't you also complaining about All-Pro not being factored in... must have conveniently glossed over the Pro-Bowl and All-Pro multiplier used in AV.

No, i didn't complain about that. I noted the overall value of an all pro being the same as a player who is one of the worst players in the league.

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[mjt328]

Being a GM gets progressively harder with success.

Lower draft picks.  Less money.  Fewer holes mean you must focus on needs, instead of going BPA every round.

 

Brandon Beane did a great job pulling the Bills out of the basement, and making us a Super Bowl contender.  No doubt.

He still needs to prove he can KEEP us at the top. 

 

Most teams can only contend for 3-4 years, and then must step back and reload.  It's a rarity for teams to remain elite for a decade (like the Patriots).  Unfortunately, the recent draft trend suggests we aren't going to sustain what we've seen the last few years.

[newcam2012]

9 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Hate to break the news to you, but McD is not only NOT on the hot seat, it's probably about as ice cold as it could get.  You are dreaming if you think he is going anywhere without multiple losing seasons with a good team.

Oh I agree his seat is cold. I'd agrue that his seat should start getting warmer if this team doesn't progress. McD has had 6 years of Allen who is arguably one of the top 3 QBs in the league. 

 

The Bills led by McD have failed to progress deep into the playoffs. Arguably, Coach McD blew that chance in 13 seconds vs KC. Hate to bring that up but I think it carries validity. This year his team was flat, unprepared, and laid an egg vs Cinci in a huge home field playoff game. Excuses or not much should fall on the coach. 

 

Let's look at KC and Philly for examples since both are in the Super Bowl. KC built up their Oline almost immediately and protected their elite QB. Bingo a Super Bowl win and likely more to follow.

 

Philly drafted young QB and surrounded him with excellent weapons and an elite defense. Bingo a Hurts Super Bowl appearance in year three. 

 

The Bills have floundered their opportunities to advance. They have squandered their opportunities to improve. Thus, they can't overcome injuries. They have glaring weaknesses in the trenches and at WR.  

 

Not sure how fans no matter how optimistic you are can't see this organization is not elite. The wait til next year mentality isn't working. The injury excuse isn't working. The players will develop excuse isn't working. The cap space issues. That's what they are selling us fans. Listen to Beane's presser. He pretty much summarizes that. I just can't and won't accept that. 

 

Yet, this organization is going to run it back. How can Bills fans be satisfied with that? Changes, schemes, philosophy, attitude, etc... have to be made. Teams like KC and Cinci have passed the Bills. Other teams are right there or better. It's time for the organization to get aggressive and assertive not passive. Running it back is passive. 

 

Now is not the time for fans to be complacent. Are you satisfied with nice regular season records? Making playoff appearances only to exit early? Perhaps many are based on the previous Bills history. 

 

As for myself, I want at least a Super Bowl appearance and than a Super Bowl win. Currently, the direction of this team makes that feat  distant and unlikely. For that reason, all the coache's seats including McD shouldn't be ice cold!

Edited February 9, 2023 by newcam2012

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Beane generally has drafted high floor players, many at non-premium positions.  It skews the overall results in his favor, because many of his draft picks are still in the league.  But other than Allen he has yet to hit a grand slam at a premium position in the draft.  Rousseau is trending that way.  Oliver has been too inconsistent.  Epenesa and Basham and Ford are trending toward busts.  Elam is an unknown but still feels like a panic pick.  He drafted one great offensive linemen and traded him away for peanuts.  Other than that, he's drafted a bunch of serviceable players at non-premium positions who remain in the NFL.  Straight down the fairway - except last year's draft, which was a disaster at the worst possible time.  He needs to start hitting on high-ceiling premium players or the talent gap between the Bills and their rivals is going to widen.

 

Since Beane took over drafting in 2018:

• 61 players who have entered league have been named to at least one All-Pro team
• Remove Special Teams players from that group then the number drops to 43 players named to at least one All-Pro team
• Account for only premium positions (QB, WR, T, DE, CB) and the numbers drops to 22 players named to at least one All-Pro team
  • QB - 3
  • WR - 7
  • T - 3
  • DE - 3
  • CB - 6
     
• 3 teams have drafted multiple All-Pro players at premium positions since 2018
  • Atlanta - Calvin Ridley (2018) and AJ Terrell (2021)
  • Dallas - Micah Parsons (2021), Trevon Diggs (2020) and CeeDee Lamb (2020)
  • San Francisco - Deebo Samuel (2019) and Nick Bosa (2019)
     
• 2 GMs have drafted multiple All-Pro players at premium positions since 2018
  • Dallas - Jerry Jones (Will McClay)
  • San Francisco - John Lynch
    • Thomas Dimitroff drafted Calvin Ridley and Terry Fontenot drafted AJ Terrell
       
• Based on the Bills draft position from 2018 - 2022 Brandon Beane had the opportunity to select the following players without sacrificing acquiring another All-Pro Player at a premium position:
   
  • Josh Allen (HE DID!)
  • DK Metcalf (Over Ed Oliver and Cody Ford)
  • Calvin Ridley (Over Tremaine Edmunds) - Suspended from NFL
  • Jaire Alexander (Over Tremaine Edmunds)
  • Deebo Samuel (Over Ed Oliver)
  • Maxx Crosby (Over Ed Oliver, Cody Ford, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox)
  • J.C. Jackson (Entire 2018 Draft excluding Josh Allen)
  • A.J. Brown (Over Ed Oliver and Cody Ford) - Traded away before becoming an All-Pro w/ Tennessee 

 

Let's not pretend like these premium players grow on trees and are easy to identify. 2/3 of them were 1st round picks that we didn't even have a chance to acquire, and the group listed above had an ADP of the 50th pick... meaning everyone passed on them at least once... including other top tier GMs. 

[Coach Tuesday]

2 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

 

Since Beane took over drafting in 2018:

• 61 players who have entered league have been named to at least one All-Pro team
• Remove Special Teams players from that group then the number drops to 43 players named to at least one All-Pro team
• Account for only premium positions (QB, WR, T, DE, CB) and the numbers drops to 22 players named to at least one All-Pro team
  • QB - 3
  • WR - 7
  • T - 3
  • DE - 3
  • CB - 6
     
• 3 teams have drafted multiple All-Pro players at premium positions since 2018
  • Atlanta - Calvin Ridley (2018) and AJ Terrell (2021)
  • Dallas - Micah Parsons (2021), Trevon Diggs (2020) and CeeDee Lamb (2020)
  • San Francisco - Deebo Samuel (2019) and Nick Bosa (2019)
     
• 2 GMs have drafted multiple All-Pro players at premium positions since 2018
  • Dallas - Jerry Jones (Will McClay)
  • San Francisco - John Lynch
    • Thomas Dimitroff drafted Calvin Ridley and Terry Fontenot drafted AJ Terrell
       
• Based on the Bills draft position from 2018 - 2022 Brandon Beane had the opportunity to select the following players without sacrificing acquiring another All-Pro Player at a premium position:
   
  • Josh Allen (HE DID!)
  • DK Metcalf (Over Ed Oliver and Cody Ford)
  • Calvin Ridley (Over Tremaine Edmunds) - Suspended from NFL
  • Jaire Alexander (Over Tremaine Edmunds)
  • Deebo Samuel (Over Ed Oliver)
  • Maxx Crosby (Over Ed Oliver, Cody Ford, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox)
  • J.C. Jackson (Entire 2018 Draft excluding Josh Allen)
  • A.J. Brown (Over Ed Oliver and Cody Ford) - Traded away before becoming an All-Pro w/ Tennessee 

 

Let's not pretend like these premium players grow on trees and are easy to identify. 2/3 of them were 1st round picks that we didn't even have a chance to acquire, and the group listed above had an ADP of the 50th pick... meaning everyone passed on them at least once... including other top tier GMs. 

Sure if All Pro is your measuring stick.  

[JGMcD2]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Sure if All Pro is your measuring stick.  

Well what's the measuring stick then Coach... you didn't give one. 

[BullBuchanan]

Nobody tell PFR.
 

6. OL Spencer Brown

(Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

Overall grade: 53.4

NFL positional ranking: 76th of 84 qualifying

https://billswire.usatoday.com/lists/pro-football-focus-buffalo-bills-rodger-saffold-spencer-brown/?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0akCLnbsphAyZ7kwevDYtCG9C4NxdkVqOqeBBuG1LmwY7SkOjX7H7n7EM



vs Tristan Wirfs, 2nd Team all pro and Pro Bowler

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan