Draft Success Measured by AV - Part III

[JGMcD2]

Updating my analysis of league-wide draft success for the third time. 

 

I'm linking the previous two versions here as well as including updated charts based on some requests I've received.

 

The old posts below explain the methodology and provide a snapshot of where teams stood at those points in time. 

 

2021

 

League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive

 

2022

*UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive

 

 

 

 

2017 - 2019

 

 

 

2020 - 2022

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

Thanks for posting this. It shows the problem pretty darn well. The Bills better start hitting on some draft picks NOW if they don’t want to drive this car into a ditch. Eventually you just run out of money. The burning question is whether the picks aren’t any good, or whether there’s a disconnect between the coaching staff, scouting department, and front office. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by SoCal Deek

[Big Turk]

So basically they had 3 great drafts followed by 3 "Meh" drafts, while CIN and KC had a top draft in successive seasons in 2020 and 2021, which tells a pretty good story.  Also both had rookie draft classes that performed better than ours this year.

[BearNorth]

Kansas City has worse drafting positions than we do every year, but they rank 4th overall.  That pretty much falls on Beane and his college scouting dept.

 

We used a second on Cook when there were decent OL available, they found Pacheco under our noses [Rutgers] for a 7th.

[DCofNC]

3 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Kansas City has worse drafting positions than we do every year, but they rank 4th overall.  That pretty much falls on Beane and his college scouting dept.

 

We used a second on Cook when there were decent OL available, they found Pacheco under our noses [Rutgers] for a 7th.

Yep, they have out drafted the Bills at virtually every corner, starting with Maholmes.  This last draft is one of, if not the biggest example of Beane’s tendency to lock onto a position and draft purely for need, regardless of the talent on the board.   Need CB, force that pick, “need” a pass catching RB, force that pick.  Need a cover LB for this antique defensive system WAY WAY over draft a character guy who’s coach happens to be a McD buddy.. Just awful. 
 

KC sees a player they want, moves ahead of the likely teams who would draft them, lands the player the Bills want, who subsequently force a pick that doesn’t fit their scheme.  KC screwed up once in drafting a pass catching back and realizes they don’t need to waste high picks on a RB  with their system, draft a speed/size guy late, who crushes the output of the Bills second rounder.. forget about Boogie instead of Humphrey etc.   Beane’s drafts are mediocre at best if you subtract Allen, which btw was another forced pick, but it did work out.

[HeHateMe]

If the Browns drafted Allen, Beane would probably have been fired at this point.  His drafts haven't been good.  

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Do you have an AV breakdown by player ? 

 

I'm curious how a guy like Spencer Brown rates. As a 3rd round pick just being a starter will look good on some metrics. 

[DCofNC]

3 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

Do you have an AV breakdown by player ? 

 

I'm curious how a guy like Spencer Brown rates. As a 3rd round pick just being a starter will look good on some metrics. 

I’d like to understand the metrics as well.  Let’s be honest, starter by default is not a ringing endorsement of success, but it may be in some metrics. 

[H2o]

I think we have all been left with numerous head scratching moments watching the draft. Some of it I chalk up to being the typical armchair GM, but others have really been "what were they thinking" types of scenarios. At some point you have to draft BPA's at your weaknesses in the mid-late rounds, rather than all of that jargon about "staying true to our board" which obviously hasn't worked. If your weakness is along the OL, take the highest rated lineman you have on your board in that 2nd,  3rd, or 4th Round. Don't just draft a LB, or a DT, or a DE, or anyone else for that matter just for the sake of drafting one because of your board. They have passed up on some guys who could have really helped us at positions of need by sticking to their board at times. 

[DCofNC]

9 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

If the Browns drafted Allen, Beane would probably have been fired at this point.  His drafts haven't been good.  

I don’t think that’s even a question.  Imagine giving up what they did to move up and land anybody else besides Jackson, who wasn’t really considered one of the top choices.  Beane went all in and won, but it didn’t really seem like Allen was the primary target, I think Beane would have taken Baker if he could have and had to settle for the raw prospect.

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I don’t think that’s even a question.  Imagine giving up what they did to move up and land anybody else besides Jackson, who wasn’t really considered one of the top choices.  Beane went all in and won, but it didn’t really seem like Allen was the primary target, I think Beane would have taken Baker if he could have and had to settle for the raw prospect.

Why do you think that?

[DCofNC]

Just now, NewEra said:

Why do you think that?

Comments Beane made when asked if they got their guy, something to effect of “we’re happy to have Josh”.  It wasn’t exactly, “he was the guy we were really hoping to land, couldn’t be more excited!”  They also spent a lot of time on Baker and he was the more pro ready guy, who do you think McD would be more confident in?

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Comments Beane made when asked if they got their guy, something to effect of “we’re happy to have Josh”.  It wasn’t exactly, “he was the guy we were really hoping to land, couldn’t be more excited!”  They also spent a lot of time on Baker and he was the more pro ready guy, who do you think McD would be more confident in?

Allen was their #1 QB. In their draft videos you can see the order of QB's on a white board.

58 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Kansas City has worse drafting positions than we do every year, but they rank 4th overall.  That pretty much falls on Beane and his college scouting dept.

 

We used a second on Cook when there were decent OL available, they found Pacheco under our noses [Rutgers] for a 7th.

I don't see how Beane can be held accountable for the draft successes of another team.

[Lost]

Does the team have different scouts/talent evaluators working for them the last 3 years than they did in 2017-2019?   That's quite a dropoff in draft quality.

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, Lost said:

Does the team have different scouts/talent evaluators working for them the last 3 years than they did in 2017-2019?   That's quite a dropoff in draft quality.

Drafting in the back half of each round is going to have a big influence on that. 

[H2o]

12 minutes ago, MJS said:

I don't see how Beane can be held accountable for the draft successes of another team.

 Agreed. He was passed on 250 times by every other team in succession. The Chiefs themselves made 8 picks before Pacheko. 

[SCBills]

36 minutes ago, H2o said:

I think we have all been left with numerous head scratching moments watching the draft. Some of it I chalk up to being the typical armchair GM, but others have really been "what were they thinking" types of scenarios. At some point you have to draft BPA's at your weaknesses in the mid-late rounds, rather than all of that jargon about "staying true to our board" which obviously hasn't worked. If your weakness is along the OL, take the highest rated lineman you have on your board in that 2nd,  3rd, or 4th Round. Don't just draft a LB, or a DT, or a DE, or anyone else for that matter just for the sake of drafting one because of your board. They have passed up on some guys who could have really helped us at positions of need by sticking to their board at times. 

 

When the collective fanbase is at a loss for picks like Basham and Bernard, and then Basham does nothing for 2 years of his rookie contract, while Bernard can't even see the field as a rookie when there are injuries ahead of him... I think it's beyond armchair GM's.

 

I don't ever want to feel like we know more than our FO, yet lately, it seems like it... at least on Day 2. 

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by SCBills

[MJS]

Thanks for posting. I've always really liked this analysis. I'd like to see the same for free agency additions to complete the picture.

 

I think this shows that the Bills have been a good drafting team, but have gone downhill the past couple of years and are now average. Let's hope they get things turned around. We could use a really good draft.

 

The past two drafts have had some questionable picks. Rousseau was a good pick, but then they double dipped and went with Basham. I think that was a mistake. Last year, Elam was a good pick, but they drafted Bernard who didn't fit our scheme and it's hard to see how he fits in given that Milano is locked up. He isn't an Edmunds replacement.

 

Beane needs to get his mojo back.

Edited February 8, 2023 by MJS

[Lost]

6 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Drafting in the back half of each round is going to have a big influence on that. 

 

Well I also wondered if these ratings were weighted by teams draft position but I guess you just answered that.  

[JGMcD2]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Thanks for posting. I've always really liked this analysis. I'd like to see the same for free agency additions to complete the picture.

 

I think this shows that the Bills have been a good drafting team, but have gone downhill the past couple of years and are now average. Let's hope they get things turned around. We could use a really good draft.

 

The past two drafts have had some questionable picks. Rousseau was a good pick, but they they double dipped and went with Basham. I think that was a mistake. Last year Elam was a good pick, but they drafted Bernard who didn't fit our scheme and it's hard to see how he fits in given that Milano is locked up. He isn't an Edmunds replacement.

 

Beane needs to get his mojo back.

It’s harder to draft at the back end of RD1. It hasn’t been great and KC doing it better hasn’t helped. 
 

It also hasn’t been a disaster that some are making it out to be. This year’s draft class was actually pretty good and will jump up over time as they continue to play.
 

We’re going to look back in a year or two and have multiple quality starters - Elam, Cook and Benford + Shakir should be an above average contributor. 

[MJS]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

It’s harder to draft at the back end of RD1. It hasn’t been great and KC doing it better hasn’t helped. 
 

It also hasn’t been a disaster that some are making it out to be. This year’s draft class was actually pretty good and will jump up over time as they continue to play.
 

We’re going to look back in a year or two and have multiple quality starters - Elam, Cook and Benford + Shakir should be an above average contributor. 

I agree. But another problem is that some of our picks have turned out to be solid players, but we haven't lucked into any of those truly dominant players, while KC and Cincy have both lucked into a couple of players like that. Oliver, for instance, is a good quality starter, but he isn't the dominant force we hoped he would be.

 

It's great to get the solid starters and solid depth pieces, but man I hope we luck into a dominant player at some point. That would really move the needle.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

It’s harder to draft at the back end of RD1. It hasn’t been great and KC doing it better hasn’t helped. 
 

It also hasn’t been a disaster that some are making it out to be. This year’s draft class was actually pretty good and will jump up over time as they continue to play.
 

We’re going to look back in a year or two and have multiple quality starters - Elam, Cook and Benford + Shakir should be an above average contributor. 

 

Day 2 has been the issue.  And it's a massive issue. 

 

I agree that RD1 has been fine.  Not a ton of qualms with Beane here. 

 

I also agree that this past draft class may age very well.  Ridiculous how they handled Elam, but he has a ton of talent and showed well when give the chance.  Cook showed RB1 (in our Offense) potential.  Shakir and Benford are, at least, solid rotation/depth contributors.    Could never predict what happened with Araiza, and if the Bernard pick was OL, WR, S etc., we may well be looking at a Chiefs-like draft minus the excess picks from a trade. 

[Lofton80]

One could argue a 13-3 is the testament to team building. His picks are also influenced by who else he has on the roster already as he is picking. I think the vanilla scheme on defense hurts way worse than the personnel.  

[Big Turk]

22 minutes ago, Lost said:

Does the team have different scouts/talent evaluators working for them the last 3 years than they did in 2017-2019?   That's quite a dropoff in draft quality.

 

I think what it shows is that teams tend to trend towards the mean over a long enough time period. Buffalo over the 6 year period still has much higher DraftAV than either CIN or KC as a whole.

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

I agree. But another problem is that some of our picks have turned out to be solid players, but we haven't lucked into any of those truly dominant players, while KC and Cincy have both lucked into a couple of players like that. Oliver, for instance, is a good quality starter, but he isn't the dominant force we hoped he would be.

 

It's great to get the solid starters and solid depth pieces, but man I hope we luck into a dominant player at some point. That would really move the needle.

I had another analysis (somewhere can't find it right now) breaking down the last 4 drafts by number of Pro Bowl players drafted... essentially because of a dumb tweet saying the Bills hadn't drafted a Pro Bowler since 2018, which meant to internet GMs they're bad at drafting.

 

• Only 5 teams had 3 or more in the last 4 drafts (DAL, TB, LVR, PHI, SF)
• Over half the league had 1 or less
• Less than 5% of all draft picks have been Pro Bowlers in the last 4 drafts (48/1030)
  • Of those 48 players selected the Bills had the opportunity to select less than 50% of them.
• 52% of Pro Bowlers in the last 4 drafts were selected in RD1 and the average pick they were selected was #10 overall
  • The Bills average selection in the last 4 drafts has been #29 overall

 

It's REALLY difficult to find those standout guys - especially where we've been drafting. 

[MJS]

3 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I had another analysis (somewhere can't find it right now) breaking down the last 4 drafts by number of Pro Bowl players drafted... essentially because of a dumb tweet saying the Bills hadn't drafted a Pro Bowler since 2018, which meant to internet GMs they're bad at drafting.

 

• Only 5 teams had 3 or more in the last 4 drafts (DAL, TB, LVR, PHI, SF)
• Over half the league had 1 or less
• Less than 5% of all draft picks have been Pro Bowlers in the last 4 drafts (48/1030)
  • Of those 48 players selected the Bills had the opportunity to select less than 50% of them.
• 52% of Pro Bowlers in the last 4 drafts were selected in RD1 and the average pick they were selected was #10 overall
  • The Bills average selection in the last 4 drafts has been #29 overall

 

It's REALLY difficult to find those standout guys - especially where we've been drafting. 

This is why I said it is luck. You have to get lucky by getting one of those dominant players.

[JGMcD2]

14 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I think what it shows is that teams tend to trend towards the mean over a long enough time period. Buffalo over the 6 year period still has much higher DraftAV than either CIN or KC as a whole.

Joe Burrow and Joe Burrow's torn ACL were the best things that could have happened to CIN. They've been not so good otherwise.

 

You have Pratt, Bates and Hubbard they've found but 2/3 need to get paid this offseason. 

 

Once Burrow, Higgins and Chase all get paid in the next 1-2 years I think they're in much worse shape than we are. 

 

This isn't even taking into account Eli Apple, Von Bell, Logan Wilson, DJ Reader, Jonah Williams, Hayden Hurst and Tyler Boyd. Even Perine and Mixon.

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by JGMcD2

[newcam2012]

12 minutes ago, MJS said:

I agree. But another problem is that some of our picks have turned out to be solid players, but we haven't lucked into any of those truly dominant players, while KC and Cincy have both lucked into a couple of players like that. Oliver, for instance, is a good quality starter, but he isn't the dominant force we hoped he would be.

 

It's great to get the solid starters and solid depth pieces, but man I hope we luck into a dominant player at some point. That would really move the needle.

Looking back at the Oliver pick. It was a fairly big risk solely on his size. I myself was intrigued by his athleticism and liked the pick. However, his size measurables are in the bottom tier in every category. Drafting is about accessing risks and this probably should have gotten the Bills off of Oliver. I mean how many dominant Dline players are 6'1" or 6'2" 285? I can't think of any but im sure there are a few. 

 

Of course it's easier to criticize after the fact. 

 

 

[TheWeatherMan]

The fact that this formula has the 2022 Jets draft class as 9 makes me think it’s pretty flawed.  They had the top class with Seattle slightly behind.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

28 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Day 2 has been the issue.  And it's a massive issue. 

 

I agree that RD1 has been fine.  Not a ton of qualms with Beane here. 

 

I also agree that this past draft class may age very well.  Ridiculous how they handled Elam, but he has a ton of talent and showed well when give the chance.  Cook showed RB1 (in our Offense) potential.  Shakir and Benford are, at least, solid rotation/depth contributors.    Could never predict what happened with Araiza, and if the Bernard pick was OL, WR, S etc., we may well be looking at a Chiefs-like draft minus the excess picks from a trade. 

RD1 has been ok?

By any stretch, Oliver was over-drafted, Rousseau is OK, no one knows what Elam's gonna be but he's not a scheme fit, yet.

 

Allen was great. Edmunds OK.

 

[SCBills]

13 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

RD1 has been ok?

By any stretch, Oliver was over-drafted, Rousseau is OK, no one knows what Elam's gonna be but he's not a scheme fit, yet.

 

Allen was great. Edmunds OK.

 

 

Allen obviously saves Beane, but that's the case for any GM.  Joe Douglas is in hot water with half the fanbase because he keeps missing on QB and OL despite some big hits.

 

Trade for Diggs was a great move.  Can't have a RD1 discussion without that. 

 

Outside Allen, I'd say Edmunds and Rousseau are good for where they were drafted.  Neither is a bust and both are high potential guys with a floor being an above average player at their position.  

 

Oliver was a big miss.  He's one of the most frustrating draft picks of the Beane era.  We will likely never draft that high for a long time and we completely missed.  This guy likely isn't a building block and he's not been a difference maker.  Top 10 pick... wasted. 

 

Elam, I like a lot.  No clue what the problem was, but Beane can't make McD/Frazier give guys playing time and allow them to play through mistakes.  I'm expecting him to be very good, but it's obviously too early to tell. 

 

Now Day 2.... Day 2 is where Beane needs to get his act together. 

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by SCBills

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

RD1 has been ok?

By any stretch, Oliver was over-drafted, Rousseau is OK, no one knows what Elam's gonna be but he's not a scheme fit, yet.

 

Allen was great. Edmunds OK.

 

Elam is TBD. Showed signs of being a good/great pick - we knew it was going to be an adjustment. 

 

Rousseau was actually a REALLY good value for where they picked. They can't really control much else. Only way the Bills would have gotten a significantly better player was if they picked in the top 12 picks that year. 

 

Oliver was over-drafted but isn't a bad player - not awful value but not great either. 

 

Edmunds is better than OK. Not going to turn this into a Tremaine Edmunds thread.

 

Allen was a home run. 

 

I'd have to look, but I'd argue RD1 has been better than OK when compared to the rest of the league. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

Comments Beane made when asked if they got their guy, something to effect of “we’re happy to have Josh”.  It wasn’t exactly, “he was the guy we were really hoping to land, couldn’t be more excited!”  They also spent a lot of time on Baker and he was the more pro ready guy, who do you think McD would be more confident in?

Lol.  That’s why you think Baker Mayfield was their guy?  🤣 

 

Being that you’re a proud member of the sadness brigade, this makes a lot of sense.

 

I don’t pretend to know things like this.  It’s something that we’ll never know.  Trying to use a general quote like that to unsheathe their qb rankings is laughable. 

[DCofNC]

15 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Lol.  That’s why you think Baker Mayfield was their guy?  🤣 

 

Being that you’re a proud member of the sadness brigade, this makes a lot of sense.

 

I don’t pretend to know things like this.  It’s something that we’ll never know.  Trying to use a general quote like that to unsheathe their qb rankings is laughable. 

I said,  “I think”, I don’t know. 

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I said,  “I think”, I don’t know. 

Right.  You “think” that he wanted Baker because he said “we’re happy to have Josh”. 

[LABILLBACKER]

40 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Looking back at the Oliver pick. It was a fairly big risk solely on his size. I myself was intrigued by his athleticism and liked the pick. However, his size measurables are in the bottom tier in every category. Drafting is about accessing risks and this probably should have gotten the Bills off of Oliver. I mean how many dominant Dline players are 6'1" or 6'2" 285? I can't think of any but im sure there are a few. 

 

Of course it's easier to criticize after the fact. 

 

 

6-1 / 285 hardly screams 1 tech or even 3 tech. We've swung and missed on AJ & Boogie. And I'm not even convinced Groot will be more than a 8-9 sack guy.  We need an elite pass rusher after Von leaves which will probably be in 2 years. Would've been nice if Ed was more dominant but it didn't happen. I'm sure we haven't seen the end of McD grasping at defensive players. But if Beane doesn't put his foot down and demand a shift to offense, they'll all lose the locker room.

[DCofNC]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Allen was their #1 QB. In their draft videos you can see the order of QB's on a white board.

I don't see how Beane can be held accountable for the draft successes of another team.

Ok, then hold him accountable for the failures of his own.   The fact is he tried to say Cincinnati is better because they have been drafting higher and KC has been drafting below us and finding better players.  

[DCofNC]

32 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Allen obviously saves Beane, but that's the case for any GM.  Joe Douglas is in hot water with half the fanbase because he keeps missing on QB and OL despite some big hits.

 

Trade for Diggs was a great move.  Can't have a RD1 discussion without that. 

 

Outside Allen, I'd say Edmunds and Rousseau are good for where they were drafted.  Neither is a bust and both are high potential guys with a floor being an above average player at their position.  

 

Oliver was a big miss.  He's one of the most frustrating draft picks of the Beane era.  We will likely never draft that high for a long time and we completely missed.  This guy likely isn't a building block and he's not been a difference maker.  Top 10 pick... wasted. 

 

Elam, I like a lot.  No clue what the problem was, but Beane can't make McD/Frazier give guys playing time and allow them to play through mistakes.  I'm expecting him to be very good, but it's obviously too early to tell. 

 

Now Day 2.... Day 2 is where Beane needs to get his act together. 

 

QB hides a lot.  In comparison, would you take Douglas vs Beane aside from the QB misses?   The thing is there are like 10 guys at any given time in the NFL that ever stand out as a Qb, you have one, you win games.  
 

Aside from Allen, I think Beane would be gone.  It’s not only the draft, but his FA and his handling of the 5th year options has been awful too. 

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

QB hides a lot.  In comparison, would you take Douglas vs Beane aside from the QB misses?   The thing is there are like 10 guys at any given time in the NFL that ever stand out as a Qb, you have one, you win games.  
 

Aside from Allen, I think Beane would be gone.  It’s not only the draft, but his FA and his handling of the 5th year options has been awful too. 

Are you saying Douglas has drafted well outside of this year? Because that’s just not true. 

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, Lofton80 said:

One could argue a 13-3 is the testament to team building. His picks are also influenced by who else he has on the roster already as he is picking. I think the vanilla scheme on defense hurts way worse than the personnel.  

 

It's a talent issue. We have several guys on the DL who were drafted in the first 2 rounds yet once Von went down nobody could get to the QB. That's on Beane and his evaluations.