NFL Draft Rumors

[Pete]

2 minutes ago, Negan said:

I think everyone and their mother would have wanted DK Metcalf over Cody Ford. 

 

Can go back in time when everyone on earth wanted Orakpo, and the Bills chose Maybin.

 

Or when everyone wanted Haloti Ngata, and the Bills took Whitner. 

 

Most times the message board is usually better than the real GM sadly.

 

 

Khalil Mack over Sammy Watkins

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Negan said:

I think everyone and their mother wanted DK Metcalf over Cody Ford. 

 

Can go back in time when everyone on earth wanted Orakpo, and the Bills chose Maybin.

 

Or when everyone wanted Haloti Ngata, and the Bills took Whitner. 

 

Most times the message board is usually better than the real GM sadly.

 

If you want to go back to the 00s, sure. The Bills were being run by incompetents. They have certainly not been run by incompetents in the last 6 years, whatever people want to think about whether Beane's record could be better. 

[Negan]

Just now, Pete said:

Khalil Mack over Sammy Watkins

Right in your backyard too.

[4merper4mer]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Do you really think that the board would have done better than Beane over the last five drafts? And when do we judge it? Not after rookie years, certainly. After 2 seasons? 3? End of rookie contracts? 

 

I am the first to dismiss those who argue "I trust the GM because he knows more than I do" because they all make mistakes, and there are times where amateurs who watch film may well get one right and GMs don't. But overall I'm not as sure the balance tips to the fans as you. 

 

We do actually have polls of members here from Virgil's member mocks that are a decent guide. So I looked at a few results. 

 

In 2022:

at #25 of guys in the poll who were still on the board when the Bills picked the selection would have been: Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

at #57 of guys in the poll who were still on the board when the Bills picked the selection would have been: Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA

 

In 2021:

at #30 of the guys in the poll who were still on the board when the Bills picked the selection would have been: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

at #60 of the guys in the poll who were still on the board when the Bills picked the selection would have been: Joseph Ossai, Edge, Texas

 

in 2020:

NO FIRST - traded for Stefon Diggs

at #54 of the guys in the poll who were still on the board when the Bills picked the selection would have been: Terrell Lewis, OLB, Alabama

at #86 of the guys in the poll who were still on the board when the Bills picked the selection would have been: Anfernee Jennings, OLB, Alabama

 

 

I can't find the polls from any further back than that. But thanks to @Virgil for running his mocks and I suspect we are fast approaching the first of this year!

 

When you look at that list Woolen stands out. But Hill and Elam both had good not great rookie years, JOK has not been as good an NFL player as Groot, Ossai over Basham even despite him losing his entire rookie year to an ACL, but then Jennings has started only 7 games on a bad Patriots team and Lewis was so bad with the Rams they have already cut bait with him. So while Epenesa and Moss might not have been studs not sure the fans did any better. Also interestingly given where the board is now.... we'd have picked 6 defensive players!!! Beane it's 4 defensive players and two running backs!!!

 

Wrong methodology.

 

See what you’re supposed to do is compare the Bills pick not to some sort of board consensus but to the best random thought thrown out there by any one of the board’s 37 caustic geniuses.  You don’t need to do it contemporaneously either, the geniuses are allowed up to three years do decide.  That will show you that Beane is indeed stupid.  Stop using logic….more emotion….preferably anger.

 

 

4 minutes ago, Negan said:

I think everyone and their mother wanted DK Metcalf over Cody Ford. 

 

Can go back in time when everyone on earth wanted Orakpo, and the Bills chose Maybin.

 

Or when everyone wanted Haloti Ngata, and the Bills took Whitner. 

 

Most times the message board is usually better than the real GM sadly.

 

 

You left off Chosen Rosen.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Wrong methodology.

 

See what you’re supposed to do is compare the Bills pick not to some sort of board consensus but to the best random thought thrown out there by any one of the board’s 37 caustic geniuses.  You don’t need to do it contemporaneously either, the geniuses are allowed up to three years do decide.  That will show you that Beane is indeed stupid.  Stop using logic….more emotion….preferably anger.

 

 

 

There is another thread where they get to choose 10 guys who will go in the first 70 picks and then if Beane misses and one of those 10 hits it proves something. Apparently. 

 

5 minutes ago, Pete said:

Khalil Mack over Sammy Watkins

 

So Sammy was a bust. I actually wanted them to trade up for Mike Evans. That was the right pick. It is a controversial view, I know, but Khalil Mack is one of the most overrated players in my 20 years watching the NFL. He is decent. He has been a top 10 edge guy. People talk about him as some sort of elite player and a borderline HoF contender down the line. It's madness. 

Edited March 10, 2023 by GunnerBill

[4merper4mer]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

There is another thread where they get to choose 10 guys who will go in the first 70 picks and then if Beane misses and one of those 10 hits it proves something. Apparently. 

How Beane gets himself in a position every year where he doesn’t have 12 of the 32……well 31 if Miami or NE cheat……first round picks is another example of his incompetence.  I mean this year he got us the 27th pick.  Doesn’t he know top 10 is better?

[LEBills]

6 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Ask yourself how a joe can do basic research leading up to the draft, and hit on prospects better than our football administrators have that get paid thousands of dollars and it’s their career. I guarantee you, if this board made a selection round by round poll of prospects available during that round, and you took the top 3 players voted for, the board would perform better than professionals. I might just do that this year. 

Please don’t. Virgil runs a TSW draft each year where the board picks who the Bills select.

 

Last year we selected

1. Trent McDuffie 

2. Kenneth Walker

3. John Metchie

 

All three players who were gone prior to our picks in real life. 

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

The NFL Comp pick formula is a joke....CONFIRMED rumor 

[Milanos Milano]

7 hours ago, Negan said:

I think everyone and their mother wanted DK Metcalf over Cody Ford. 

 

Can go back in time when everyone on earth wanted Orakpo, and the Bills chose Maybin.

 

Or when everyone wanted Haloti Ngata, and the Bills took Whitner. 

 

Most times the message board is usually better than the real GM sadly.

 

 

Yep, I’m even sure most wanted Josh Allen vs other options. The board has done very well over the years. There are a handful that I remember that didn’t turn out well. Clausen, Spiller, Watkins.  Spiller wasn’t a terrible pick though, just not utilized properly. 

7 hours ago, Negan said:

Right in your backyard too.

We passed on Gronkowski, which I remember so many people wanted to draft. Honestly, Pegs should just consult the board rather than the GM. The board has generally done well. Tons of us were screaming for Woolen when he was dropping, even after taking Elam. Imagine if they would have listened to us about taking Woolen, then we would have great depth. 

[Negan]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Yep, I’m even sure most wanted Josh Allen vs other options. The board has done very well over the years. There are a handful that I remember that didn’t turn out well. Clausen, Spiller, Watkins.  Spiller wasn’t a terrible pick though, just not utilized properly. 

We passed on Gronkowski, which I remember so many people wanted to draft. Honestly, Pegs should just consult the board rather than the GM. The board has generally done well. Tons of us were screaming for Woolen when he was dropping, even after taking Elam. Imagine if they would have listened to us about taking Woolen, then we would have great depth. 

Honestly after watching Allen's pro day, I was on Allen 100%.  And was glad when his name was called.

[NewEra]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ask yourself who the very first person to mention Woolen on these boards last draft season was.

 

Because I have checked when you first mentioned him. And it was the week leading up to the draft. I think the "football administrators" normally put a little more research into it than that. 

 

Hahahahahaha.  Post of the year nominee.  
 

He wants to be you GB!!  He’s coming for ya!!

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Yep, I’m even sure most wanted Josh Allen vs other options. The board has done very well over the years. There are a handful that I remember that didn’t turn out well. Clausen, Spiller, Watkins.  Spiller wasn’t a terrible pick though, just not utilized properly. 

We passed on Gronkowski, which I remember so many people wanted to draft. Honestly, Pegs should just consult the board rather than the GM. The board has generally done well. Tons of us were screaming for Woolen when he was dropping, even after taking Elam. Imagine if they would have listened to us about taking Woolen, then we would have great depth. 

Gronk was off a lot of team’s draft boards due to back problems.  Obviously, he had a very good career, but it did bother him some and for sure it was a medical risk.

 

There is so much we are not privy to regarding the draft eligible players.  We can watch game tape and read pundits’ opinions, but we don’t know their medicals, we might be able to guess if they are physically maxed out or if they have room to grow, we don’t get to interview the players or their coaches to find out how well they understand the game or how dedicated they are.  We can estimate how those players might fit the Bills’ system, but we don’t know for sure.  We don’t know what young players already on the roster the staff might think is really developing, etc.. Those are some important factors.

Edited March 10, 2023 by OldTimer1960

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

So Sammy was a bust. I actually wanted them to trade up for Mike Evans. That was the right pick. It is a controversial view, I know, but Khalil Mack is one of the most overrated players in my 20 years watching the NFL. He is decent. He has been a top 10 edge guy. People talk about him as some sort of elite player and a borderline HoF contender down the line. It's madness. 

 

 

Obviously.......the right pick was to stay put and select Aaron Donald.

 

Evans has been exceptional.......likely a HOF accumulator...........but Donald has been DPOCentury and often the best player in the league during his career.

 

I started a thread to push that unpopular idea leading up to the draft..........but the Bills didn't have an immediate need on the DL so it got about 5 replies.

 

The lesson is that the only REAL need is when you need a QB.    You draft early for stars.

 

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Obviously.......the right pick was to stay put and select Aaron Donald.

 

Evans has been exceptional.......likely a HOF accumulator...........but Donald has been DPOCentury and often the best player in the league during his career.

 

I started a thread to push that unpopular idea leading up to the draft..........but the Bills didn't have an immediate need on the DL so it got about 5 replies.

 

The lesson is that the only REAL need is when you need a QB.    You draft early for stars.

 

 

I like that philosophy a lot.

 

If you have your QB (which we do), do you move up to get a star?  Or do you just stay put and take BPA?

[Milanos Milano]

16 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I like that philosophy a lot.

 

If you have your QB (which we do), do you move up to get a star?  Or do you just stay put and take BPA?

Star, always go with the star. Star players have more value for a team than an average everyday starter. I’d rather have 2 star players than 3-4 average players. Average players aren’t going to win you any super bowl. 

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

Star, always go with the star. Star players have more value for a team than an average everyday starter. I’d rather have 2 star players than 3-4 average players. Average players aren’t going to win you any super bowl. 

 

 

The difference being how we define "star".

 

To me........a "star" is about organizational impact.

 

I think you believe that a star is something different...........because RB's stopped having major organizational impact decades ago..........they are fantasy stars but the more they are relied upon individually the more vulnerable those teams routinely prove to be in the playoffs. 

 

Players at premium positions are pretty much the only ones with enough of an opportunity to individually impact the game at a level that moves the needle for a franchise.

 

The non-premiums just don't have the chance.   If they do well, it's very much because so many other aspects fell into place.

 

QB and Edge/island players are at the top of the pay scale because they are given the chances to change the outcome of games and seasons even when the "support" staff isn't winning their battles.    It sounds good to say that it takes "all 11" to have success on that side of the ball but the way the game is currently played that is not the case.

 

[GunnerBill]

46 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Obviously.......the right pick was to stay put and select Aaron Donald.

 

Evans has been exceptional.......likely a HOF accumulator...........but Donald has been DPOCentury and often the best player in the league during his career.

 

I started a thread to push that unpopular idea leading up to the draft..........but the Bills didn't have an immediate need on the DL so it got about 5 replies.

 

The lesson is that the only REAL need is when you need a QB.    You draft early for stars.

 

 

No I remember it and I did like Donald, not as much as you did, but he was definitely on my list if (as I actually expected us to) we stayed put and Evans was gone. But I loved Mike Evans. I said at the time and stand by it - without Mike Evans Johnny Manziel would have gone undrafted.

[Pete]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Obviously.......the right pick was to stay put and select Aaron Donald.

 

Evans has been exceptional.......likely a HOF accumulator...........but Donald has been DPOCentury and often the best player in the league during his career.

 

I started a thread to push that unpopular idea leading up to the draft..........but the Bills didn't have an immediate need on the DL so it got about 5 replies.

 

The lesson is that the only REAL need is when you need a QB.    You draft early for stars.

 

I remember you declaring Aaron Donald best player in the draft

[Dopey]

On 3/10/2023 at 2:36 AM, IronMaidenBills said:

Ask yourself how a joe can do basic research leading up to the draft, and hit on prospects better than our football administrators have that get paid thousands of dollars and it’s their career. I guarantee you, if this board made a selection round by round poll of prospects available during that round, and you took the top 3 players voted for, the board would perform better than professionals. I might just do that this year. 

So if a pick doesn’t work out, Beane can just say”well I had 2 other players in mind and they are studs, so I’m as good as TBD”?!? What a crap post. 
This is what you get at 2:36am. Put the bottle down already. 

[John from Riverside]

12 hours ago, Dopey said:

So if a pick doesn’t work out, Beane can just say”well I had 2 other players in mind and they are studs, so I’m as good as TBD”?!? What a crap post. 
This is what you get at 2:36am. Put the bottle down already. 

Is iron maiden back to his bull#### of a fan can do better than a general manager in the NFL thing again

[Dopey]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

Is iron maiden back to his bull#### of a fan can do better than a general manager in the NFL thing again

😂

I wanted to cut him some slack. It was 2:30 in the morning. But, yeah, he’s back at it. 

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Dopey said:

😂

I wanted to cut him some slack. It was 2:30 in the morning. But, yeah, he’s back at it. 

The only two posters on this board that I even remotely equate to that kind of talent are gunnerbill and bado

 

Just because of track record

[gonzo1105]

30 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

The only two posters on this board that I even remotely equate to that kind of talent are gunnerbill and bado

 

Just because of track record

Both of these guys have hit rates on players as well as anyone else in here but present it better. For every guy that they projected to be great there have been 3 or 4 they propped up that are not good. 
 

It’s not a knock, everyone has grades on players and some are right and down a wrong