What are your expectations for the rookie Beane drafts in the 1st round this year?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

In order to manage the cap, the Bills need to find 4 players from this draft who turn into starters over the next 2 seasons. 

Wow that is a tall order for any GM on any team even more difficult on a roster as loaded as the Bills.

[intimidatortj]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Would be nice to get Greg Rousseau-like production.

 

Rousseau hit a rookie wall as a pass rusher.........the difference between his play early in the season in KC when he had that great interception.......versus in the playoffs was literally enough to decide both games.

 

But that's exactly why it's foolish to rely on rookies to address your biggest needs on a championship roster.

 

Fans expecting 20 games of contest changing play from pick #25 are asking A WHOLE LOT more of the pick than they can reasonably expect.

 

And that shouldn't be the objective of a 1st round pick..........that should be too find a long term asset at a position you would have to pay $20M-$30M aav to get on the open market 3-5 years down the road.    Franchise building blocks.

 

But Rousseau was actually also really good.........almost the exception.........he lead all NFL defensive lineman in total run stops despite only playing 49% of his teams snaps.

Well said.

 

If the Bills draft a CB, and the CB becomes a starter before the end of the fall, I think that would be a win.

If the rookie CB starts Day 1, that would be super successful IMO.

16 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Wow that is a tall order for any GM on any team even more difficult on a roster as loaded as the Bills.

Very tall order.  Look at the Bills 2019 Draft.   They got 3 starters out of their 8 picks.  Which is considered successful. 

 

1) Ed Oliver, DL – solid starter

2) Cody Ford, OL - bust

3) Devin Singletary, RB – ok starter

3) Dawson Knox, TE – really solid starter

5) Vosean Joseph, LB - flush

6) Jaquan Johnson, S - meh

7) Darryl Johnson, OLB - push

7b) Tommy Sweeney, TE - whatever

[mjt328]

Depends on the player and position.

 

We don't have many open spots in the starting lineup (if any), and it would be surprising for a rookie to get significant playing time in Year One.  A few exceptions may be at Running Back, Guard and Cornerback.  

 

Don't forget that last season, the Bills were not expecting ANY rookies to start.  But Greg Rousseau looked way too good in training camp to keep on the bench, so they slid him ahead of Mario Addison.  But even then, Rousseau was in a heavy rotation and hardly got on the field for 3rd Down passing plays.  Spencer Brown was also a surprise start, due to Darryl Williams regressing and being pushed inside.

 

Brandon Beane likes to draft guys with lots of physical tools and higher potential.  This usually means it takes 2-3 years before that player starts really producing on the field.  Great examples last year were with both Ed Oliver and Dawson Knox, who both had breakout seasons.  Top candidates for this year would be Gabe Davis, Dane Jackson and A.J. Epenesa.

 

[Einstein's Dog]

12 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

PS the best 1st round pick was probably trading the pick to get Stefon Diggs.  Diggs first year in Buffalo was pretty darn good.

Objection to a lot of things in this OP.  First, the FO uses the draft for the future, not short term objectives, so grading in on the first year results is not the way to assess the value.  A key component of drafting for the future is using the draft as a cap management tool.  A great way to manage the cap is to use the 1st round pick with the BPA at a premium position of use.

 

Secondly, while Diggs was an excellent trade it pales in comparison to choosing JA17.  And this highlights the above, the first year results are not the way to assess how well a draft is done.  If for instance J Williams is picked and has a JA17 like trajectory where he becomes a top 5 WR in 2-3 years, it would be well worth it.

[MWK]

I just want someone who will contribute. No o-linemen that will sit the bench this year. No safeties unless Poyer goes, no linebackers unless Edmunds goes. Get someone who can help. I hate running backs early, but at least Hall would help

Edited April 25, 2022 by MWK

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, NewEra said:

And whoever it is will be getting the ultimate support system with McD and Frazier + Hyde and Poyer backing them up. 

 

Their track record shows they don’t need 1st rd corners. They need traits. Traits can be had throughout the draft.  Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace were our starting corners for almost half the year and we had the #1 pass d…..by FAR.   Now we have Von Miller and will have Tre’davious back.  

 

This is the point so many people miss. The fact that the Bill's are so deep into team concepts, especially on D, makes it easier to insert talented young players with the intangibles Beanr and McDermott value highly.  It's what makes "next man up" work.  

 

As I said earlier, by the end of the season the Bills will have at least a couple of rookies starting.  

 

I'm still expecting a trade up in the first or second round.  One or two starters should come in the first two rounds, or a surprise from later rounds.  Guard, corner, tight end, running back, d tackle, wide out.    

[ndirish1978]

I expect to get a rotational starter who flashes, I don't see a gamechanger at 25

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I’ve said as much.  If their top rated player on the board is a CB, I hope that they take him.  I just don’t want them to reach on a corner.  Looking at this draft, you don’t think that the 2nd and 3rd round options I’ve listed could be viable in our scheme?  I do.  I also think that some of the vet FAs could come in and hold down the fort like a Dane did last season.  Our best asset doesn’t have to be used on a corner just because it’s our biggest hole.  You know that’s not how you draft.  
 

their history has shown that they don’t place nearly as much value on cb2 as other positions.  In 3 drafts…. He’s drafted 1 corner…..in the 7th round.  They’ve shown that they can run a very good D with 2 nobodies @ corner.   Kevin Johnson and EJ EJ Gaines played very well in our system.  Until they show that shown that they have changed that philosophy, I don’t see why we would assume they will.  

 

When every defensive player that’s in the rotation is either a first or 2nd round pick or is getting paid decent money defense, one MUST cut corners in certain areas.  The one area where we shouldn’t be cutting corners is protecting our franchise QB and giving him playmakers.  Empower him.  

 

We also have Siran Neal and Nick Mccloud, who i have tempered hopes for.  
 

in short….we don’t have to spend our first rd pick on a cornerback just because it’s our biggest need at the moment.  We should be taking the BPA at a relative area of need.  If that’s cb, that’s great for us and I’m all for it.  Just don’t reach.  
 

I don’t think Booth or Hill are reaches @ 25.  I think the other guys might be (McDuffie only based on his T-rex status, which McB obviously cares about).   

It is very misleading…..but it’s true. Teams had very little success passing on us all season.  It has a lot to do with the lack of good QBs we faced last year.  It also had a lot to do with our scheme, our safeties and our pass rush.  Add von Miller.  Add tredavious white mid season.  

We are pretty much aligned.  Where I differ is in having faith that Dane Jackson and anybody currently on the roster can adequately hold down the fort for the first month or two, if required.  Likewise, I think some of the 2nd and later CBS you listed could be decent long-term options, but most of them (I think) would be liabilities early due to coming from lower level schools and/or experience at the position.  Emerson is the exception there, but his athletic ability, not just speed, is not optimal.  I think that until they sign a vet with something left in the tank, that they have to plan for the possibility that White isn’t ready for the start of the season.

 

If Jameson Williams is there at 25, great (if the Drs are happy with his injury recovery prospects).  If he isn’t and they are looKing at Burks, Dotson, Pickens then I don’t think those are necessarily better players than say, Booth or Gordon.  Likewise, I really like Zion Johnson, but G at 25 comes with the 2nd contract conundrum.  It is unlikely that any of the top OTs will be left and I am firmly in the no category for Breece Hall - fine player, but RB have limited life and he has a lot of mileage on him from college.

 

i guess beyond Williams, I might consider Christian Watson instead of, say, Kyler Gordon, but I think the opinions on Watson have cooled some since the height of Watson Mania after the combine.  I know PFF isn’t be-all end-all, but Watson is currently 75th on their rankings.  Really nice prospect, but round one coming with drop concerns?
 

Long winded way to say, I understand that if Booth isn’t available, that Gordon or another CB might be a small reach, but so will most anyone left at 25, barring a major surprise.

Edited April 25, 2022 by OldTimer1960

[Greg S]

Peter King's mock has the Bills taking...

 

 

25. Buffalo Bills: Zion Johnson, offensive lineman, Boston College 

One of the very few issues that Buffalo has is at guard where Rodger Saffold is due to start at right guard this year at age 34 and the undrafted Ryan Bates is the likely left guard. To me, Johnson’s the perfect call here because even if Saffold and Bates turn out great in 2022, it seems a short-term fix. In five college seasons—two years at Davidson, one at BC after transferring—Johnson started 49 games. Give me a guy with 36 starts at guard and 13 at left tackle (in the ACC). Give me a guy who was a two-year captain after transferring. Give me a guy who never missed a game in five college seasons due to injury (58 games played in all). He’s a likely interior lineman, which lessens his value slightly. But his intelligence, football acumen and experience gives NFL GMs confidence Johnson can be a starter in 2022.

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

I expect to get a rotational starter who flashes, I don't see a gamechanger at 25

Right.   I mean, a gamechanger is possible - we could look back three or four years from now and be saying that someone was the steal of the draft, but that isn't likely.  On the other hand, I don't know that I would call Tre'Davious a "gamechanger," but he's a great player to have gotten at the bottom of round one.  Give Oliver another year or two and see what you think.  Give Rousseau another year or two and see what you think.  Those guys aren't "gamechangers," but they may have long careers in Buffalo.  

 

The Bills have Josh Allen, Stephon Diggs, and Von Miller.  They're doing okay in the game-changer department.  

 

Gamechangers come out of the top 10 of the draft and occasional surprises.  Bills aren't likely to get one this year (unless there's a trade up), but I'm confident they'll get guys who contribute this season.

[Shaw66]

26 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

We are pretty much aligned.  Where I differ is in having faith that Dane Jackson and anybody currently on the roster can adequately hold down the fort for the first month or two, if required.  Likewise, I think some of the 2nd and later CBS you listed could be decent long-term options, but most of them (I think) would be liabilities early due to coming from lower level schools and/or experience at the position.  Emerson is the exception there, but his athletic ability, not just speed, is not optimal.  I think that until they sign a vet with something left in the tank, that they have to plan for the possibility that White isn’t ready for the start of the season.

 

If Jameson Williams is there at 25, great (if the Drs are happy with his injury recovery prospects).  If he isn’t and they are looKing at Burks, Dotson, Pickens then I don’t think those are necessarily better players than say, Booth or Gordon.  Likewise, I really like Zion Johnson, but G at 25 comes with the 2nd contract conundrum.  It is unlikely that any of the top OTs will be left and I am firmly in the no category for Breece Hall - fine player, but RB have limited life and he has a lot of mileage on him from college.

 

i guess beyond Williams, I might consider Christian Watson instead of, say, Kyler Gordon, but I think the opinions on Watson have cooled some since the height of Watson Mania after the combine.  I know PFF isn’t be-all end-all, but Watson is currently 75th on their rankings.  Really nice prospect, but round one coming with drop concerns?
 

Long winded way to say, I understand that if Booth isn’t available, that Gordon or another CB might be a small reach, but so will most anyone left at 25, barring a major surprise.

I'll write a little more about what I just said.   And I'll say that I know nothing about any of these players you mention.  I'm talking in generalities.  

 

I'm in the guard-conundrum camp with you.  If the Bills don't see the next Rodger Saffold in round one, I don't think they go guard.  And if they do see him, they probably will trade up to get him.  Bills will trade up if they see a player they are confident they will re-sign at the end of his rookie deal.  If they think Johnson is that guy, they'll go get him.  

 

I just think you miss the point generally about how McDermott operates.  I'm guessing that all these guys you mention are very good athletes and very good football players, just not standout players who are likely to be stars.  That's okay with McDermott, that's all he needs.  I don't remember, but I don't think the NFL world was shocked when White fell to 27 or wherever the Bills took him.  Four cornerbacks were taken ahead of White. I think McDermott may have been shocked, because McDermott saw a very good athlete who had the character that McDermott builds his team on - competitiveness, team orientation, tireless worker.   The Bills prioritize those characteristics, and what it does for them is allow them to get great play out of guys who are not All-Pro players.   McDermott got a lot out of Jerry Hughes, for example.   Hughes was someone else's late first-round guy, never a standout, but a guy who contributed a lot in a great defense.  

 

The Bills found the kind of character they wanted in Rousseau and in Spencer Brown, along with very good but not standout physical talent.  If the Bills find that kind of character in a corner who has shown solid play in college, I expect the Bills will go get him, maybe trade up five spots or so to get him.  

 

Neither Poyer nor Hyde is a top-3 or even top-5 safety in the league, when you're talking straight play-making ability.   I mean, sure, you can argue that point, but they aren't standout superstars, not Troy Palomalu or anything like that.  But together in this system, they are outstanding.   I don't think White is a standout corner, either.   He's excellent at his position, but he is not the pure shutdown corner teams pay premium dollars for.  If Beane can find another White, a guy who's well-rated in the draft but not projected to be an All-Pro, I expect Beane will go after him.   That guy may not look like a star to us, but McBeane are looking at things that we don't see readily.  

 

A defensive backfield with Hyde, Poyer, and two Whites looks pretty good to me.  

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by Shaw66

[NewEra]

18 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

We are pretty much aligned.  Where I differ is in having faith that Dane Jackson and anybody currently on the roster can adequately hold down the fort for the first month or two, if required.  Likewise, I think some of the 2nd and later CBS you listed could be decent long-term options, but most of them (I think) would be liabilities early due to coming from lower level schools and/or experience at the position.  Emerson is the exception there, but his athletic ability, not just speed, is not optimal.  I think that until they sign a vet with something left in the tank, that they have to plan for the possibility that White isn’t ready for the start of the season.

 

If Jameson Williams is there at 25, great (if the Drs are happy with his injury recovery prospects).  If he isn’t and they are looKing at Burks, Dotson, Pickens then I don’t think those are necessarily better players than say, Booth or Gordon.  Likewise, I really like Zion Johnson, but G at 25 comes with the 2nd contract conundrum.  It is unlikely that any of the top OTs will be left and I am firmly in the no category for Breece Hall - fine player, but RB have limited life and he has a lot of mileage on him from college.

 

i guess beyond Williams, I might consider Christian Watson instead of, say, Kyler Gordon, but I think the opinions on Watson have cooled some since the height of Watson Mania after the combine.  I know PFF isn’t be-all end-all, but Watson is currently 75th on their rankings.  Really nice prospect, but round one coming with drop concerns?
 

Long winded way to say, I understand that if Booth isn’t available, that Gordon or another CB might be a small reach, but so will most anyone left at 25, barring a major surprise.

We don’t differ there in the least. I feel the same.  Talking about the CURRENT roster, we aren’t good enough.  No doubt.  It’s a big hole.  I’ve said that numerous times. 
 

You don’t feel that we can draft a guy in rd 2 or 3 that can play opposite Dane til Tre returns?  That guy could also take over the cb2 spot when Tre returns.  Dane to become depth. Several free agents can fill the role of Kevin Johnson/Dane last season.  
 

Sure, they’re going to get beat.  Everyone gets beat. It’s 2022.  There wasn’t ONE elite defense in all of the NFL last year.  Just how the NFL likes it.  
 

again….just don’t reach to fill a need.  That’s all I’m saying.  If there’s a corner that is among the top 3-5 BPA, take him.  If not, don’t reach. 

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

48 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm still expecting a trade up in the first or second round.  One or two starters should come in the first two rounds, or a surprise from later rounds.  Guard, corner, tight end, running back, d tackle, wide out. 

Agree...I think so too. Was talking about this yesterday, my guess is more likely the 2nd round than 1st. Depending how things play out it could be either though

[NewEra]

28 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Peter King's mock has the Bills taking...

 

 

25. Buffalo Bills: Zion Johnson, offensive lineman, Boston College 

One of the very few issues that Buffalo has is at guard where Rodger Saffold is due to start at right guard this year at age 34 and the undrafted Ryan Bates is the likely left guard. To me, Johnson’s the perfect call here because even if Saffold and Bates turn out great in 2022, it seems a short-term fix. In five college seasons—two years at Davidson, one at BC after transferring—Johnson started 49 games. Give me a guy with 36 starts at guard and 13 at left tackle (in the ACC). Give me a guy who was a two-year captain after transferring. Give me a guy who never missed a game in five college seasons due to injury (58 games played in all). He’s a likely interior lineman, which lessens his value slightly. But his intelligence, football acumen and experience gives NFL GMs confidence Johnson can be a starter in 2022.

He’s not the sexiest pick, but I’d much rather draft him than a RB.  Looks to be a top 10 in the NFL for the next decade…. Protecting Josh Allen and blasting holes for the RB.  Most would prefer to draft a tackle (and I’m all for drafting penning if he’s there) but that would require some maneuvering and possibly some hurt feelings by moving Dawkins to Lg.  He’d be a great building block for our offense.  

[glazeduck]

13 hours ago, Southern_Bills said:

If it's a RB, I'd expect a lot honestly, if that isn't the expectation don't draft him.

 

If it's a CB, round into starter level play by the end of the season/playoff stretch. 

 

Any other position, good luck with getting snaps.

Yeah, this is basically it -- totally depends on the player and position, but we should be good enough to make the playoffs without getting superstar contribution from a rookie. If they're ready to play like a dependable starter by the playoffs, that's good in my book.

 

This is the reason I don't want low ceiling players like the UW CBs. Our staff has a good track record turning athletes into football players, and if you consider essentially the entire regular season as one long onramp, might as well go with the freaks and let them learn and develop. 

 

In my mind, it's our "safer" picks that haven't panned out as well lately (Ford, AJE, Basham [granted it's too early to dismiss him completely], for example).

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Objection to a lot of things in this OP.  First, the FO uses the draft for the future, not short term objectives, so grading in on the first year results is not the way to assess the value.  A key component of drafting for the future is using the draft as a cap management tool.  A great way to manage the cap is to use the 1st round pick with the BPA at a premium position of use.

 

Secondly, while Diggs was an excellent trade it pales in comparison to choosing JA17.  And this highlights the above, the first year results are not the way to assess how well a draft is done.  If for instance J Williams is picked and has a JA17 like trajectory where he becomes a top 5 WR in 2-3 years, it would be well worth it.

Except you are wrong about FO not drafting for immediate need.

White (drafted by McD), Edmunds, Oliver, and Rousseau were immediate starters at positions of need.  You can only make the argument that Allen was not supposed to start right away but obviously all the moves made by Beane were done to get a QB. 

So please stop with the BPA stuff.  

 

Everything else you stated is correct. Beane needs to hit on a draft pick or two in this draft to help manage the cap and as you said it takes a few years to know the true impact of the player. Oliver has gotten better at a position that is very difficult to play well right away. Edmunds is Edmunds. When Beane drafts a CB he will start day 1 and hopefully he gets better each week.

[OldTimer1960]

15 minutes ago, NewEra said:

He’s not the sexiest pick, but I’d much rather draft him than a RB.  Looks to be a top 10 in the NFL for the next decade…. Protecting Josh Allen and blasting holes for the RB.  Most would prefer to draft a tackle (and I’m all for drafting penning if he’s there) but that would require some maneuvering and possibly some hurt feelings by moving Dawkins to Lg.  He’d be a great building block for our offense.  

For sure, they could do much worse than taking Zion Johnson.  Looks to be a very good player with Bills’ preferred football character, helps protect the franchise.  Still, not the most important position and he doesn’t seem to have ability to play OT even in a pinch. 

5 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Yeah, this is basically it -- totally depends on the player and position, but we should be good enough to make the playoffs without getting superstar contribution from a rookie. If they're ready to play like a dependable starter by the playoffs, that's good in my book.

 

This is the reason I don't want low ceiling players like the UW CBs. Our staff has a good track record turning athletes into football players, and if you consider essentially the entire regular season as one long onramp, might as well go with the freaks and let them learn and develop. 

 

In my mind, it's our "safer" picks that haven't panned out as well lately (Ford, AJE, Basham [granted it's too early to dismiss him completely], for example).

Why would you call Kyler Gordon “low ceiling”?  He has more than adequate speed, though not elite speed, but he has good size and some real explosiveness 39.5” vert. and he is an eager and aggressive tackler.  

[Mat68]

Beane is heavy on traits in rd 1.  I expect a jr age 20.5 to 21.5.  I think they will look at secondary and wr.  I think those will be players pushed down by a few Qbs and the amount of Dline and Oline drafted prior to 25.  I put secondary specifically and not just Cb b/c I can see them going with the best athlete even if he could be seen as a slot or saftey like Hill.  I think Olave or Skyy Moore could also be in play.  Losing Beasley is alot of production and targets getting a guy who can play slot but adds some speed would make sense to me. 

[Shaw66]

36 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Agree...I think so too. Was talking about this yesterday, my guess is more likely the 2nd round than 1st. Depending how things play out it could be either though

Yes, it could be first or second.  It's impossible to know which players are on McBeane's list.  We can tell from all the scouting reports who has talent, but Beane and McDermott's list is driven by character issues that they identify in personal interviews, and they don't share what they learn in the interviews until after they draft guys.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

Peter King's mock has the Bills taking...

 

 

25. Buffalo Bills: Zion Johnson, offensive lineman, Boston College 

One of the very few issues that Buffalo has is at guard where Rodger Saffold is due to start at right guard this year at age 34 and the undrafted Ryan Bates is the likely left guard. To me, Johnson’s the perfect call here because even if Saffold and Bates turn out great in 2022, it seems a short-term fix. In five college seasons—two years at Davidson, one at BC after transferring—Johnson started 49 games. Give me a guy with 36 starts at guard and 13 at left tackle (in the ACC). Give me a guy who was a two-year captain after transferring. Give me a guy who never missed a game in five college seasons due to injury (58 games played in all). He’s a likely interior lineman, which lessens his value slightly. But his intelligence, football acumen and experience gives NFL GMs confidence Johnson can be a starter in 2022.

Would not be a bad pick especially if they sign Haden in free agency. Ford would surely be cut though that may happen anyways. 

I'd still drat OT over a OG as I'm not sold on Brown just yet. Gives them more position flexibility but I like Johnson.  Would be ideal to go corner in the first and trade up in the second to get him. 

[NewEra]

21 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Yeah, this is basically it -- totally depends on the player and position, but we should be good enough to make the playoffs without getting superstar contribution from a rookie. If they're ready to play like a dependable starter by the playoffs, that's good in my book.

 

This is the reason I don't want low ceiling players like the UW CBs. Our staff has a good track record turning athletes into football players, and if you consider essentially the entire regular season as one long onramp, might as well go with the freaks and let them learn and develop. 

 

In my mind, it's our "safer" picks that haven't panned out as well lately (Ford, AJE, Basham [granted it's too early to dismiss him completely], for example).

[OldTimer1960]

12 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Beane is heavy on traits in rd 1.  I expect a jr age 20.5 to 21.5.  I think they will look at secondary and wr.  I think those will be players pushed down by a few Qbs and the amount of Dline and Oline drafted prior to 25.  I put secondary specifically and not just Cb b/c I can see them going with the best athlete even if he could be seen as a slot or saftey like Hill.  I think Olave or Skyy Moore could also be in play.  Losing Beasley is alot of production and targets getting a guy who can play slot but adds some speed would make sense to me. 

I’m not a big Sky Moore fan in round 1.

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Would not be a bad pick especially if they sign Haden in free agency. Ford would surely be cut though that may happen anyways. 

I'd still drat OT over a OG as I'm not sold on Brown just yet. Gives them more position flexibility but I like Johnson.  Would be ideal to go corner in the first and trade up in the second to get him. 

Ideal for me would be Olave/Wilson or Williams@ 25 + trading up for Zion rd 2 and trading up for a Martin Emerson rd 3.  
 

i think Dallas is going to take Zion in rd 1, but Jerry may not be able to pass on Burks, as similar as they may be being RAC demons

[Awwufelloff]

WR can have a massive impact in their first year. Waddle, Chase, Jefferson, etc...

[glazeduck]

35 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Why would you call Kyler Gordon “low ceiling”?  He has more than adequate speed, though not elite speed, but he has good size and some real explosiveness 39.5” vert. and he is an eager and aggressive tackler.  

I've seen Kyler play in person multiple times and I think the best descriptor I can give him is "solid"? He's certainly not bad, but I don't think he's exceptional at anything, and while he did test pretty well, that athleticism doesn't jump out in his play. Basically what I mean is, I don't see him becoming special, and relative to a lot of the guys listed below him, I see him as being fairly even with them in terms of what they could be long term, especially when you overlay our scheme and ability to develop and what we'd be wanting out of him. Maybe he's in the top of that tier, but if you can get a comparable guy with equal or greater upside with a later pick, why wouldn't you?

[chris heff]

My expectation is that Beane draft a player that turns out to be the greatest of all time at whatever position he plays.

[OldTimer1960]

16 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

I've seen Kyler play in person multiple times and I think the best descriptor I can give him is "solid"? He's certainly not bad, but I don't think he's exceptional at anything, and while he did test pretty well, that athleticism doesn't jump out in his play. Basically what I mean is, I don't see him becoming special, and relative to a lot of the guys listed below him, I see him as being fairly even with them in terms of what they could be long term, especially when you overlay our scheme and ability to develop and what we'd be wanting out of him. Maybe he's in the top of that tier, but if you can get a comparable guy with equal or greater upside with a later pick, why wouldn't you?

Fair enough.  We’ll have to see what Beane thinks of these guys.  As another poster said, beyond not being professional scouts, we don’t have access to player character information (interviews with player, coaches, trainers, teachers, etc), injury information- for example heard today that teams are a bit afraid of Kenyon Green’s knee, and we can’t see the players in person to estimate who is already maxed out and who still has room to grow.

[AuntieEm]

6 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

We are generally aligned, but the “#1 pass defense” stat is, in my opinion, very misleading.  They played an inordinate number of games against backup and rookie QBs and they also had the wind game in which NE attempted 3 passes.  I am not saying that they were a bad defense, but I think that they benefited greatly by circumstances.

    

     True much of their ranking is due to the circumstances they faced.  However, I like the range of circumstances opponents will face throughout Josh Allen's career.  He sets up his defenses to just need to keep things in front of them and playing with the lead more often than not sets them up to continue their ranking because they have the luxury of knowing they got an offense that can match up with any in the league.  It's so much easier to shutdown an offense when they have to take chances to hopefully keep up with what Josh can do.  Our defenses will rarely have to deal with Josh Allen like plays from.opposing QBs but on the odd plays they manage something Josh-like well our boys get lots of practice making plays against those types of plays so think they get an edge there.

Edited April 25, 2022 by AuntieEm

[intimidatortj]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Objection to a lot of things in this OP.  First, the FO uses the draft for the future, not short term objectives, so grading in on the first year results is not the way to assess the value.  A key component of drafting for the future is using the draft as a cap management tool.  A great way to manage the cap is to use the 1st round pick with the BPA at a premium position of use.

 

Secondly, while Diggs was an excellent trade it pales in comparison to choosing JA17.  And this highlights the above, the first year results are not the way to assess how well a draft is done.  If for instance J Williams is picked and has a JA17 like trajectory where he becomes a top 5 WR in 2-3 years, it would be well worth it.

You missed the point.

[Logic]

Albert Breer's column today -- which is worth reading in full, by the way -- reinforces the prevailing thought about this draft class: it's not very top-heavy, does not offer many difference makers, but has great depth into the middle rounds:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/04/25/mmqb-nfl-draft-preview-rumors-32-teams-jaguars-shad-khan

It sounds to me like action at the bottom of the first round might be hotter than action at the top. Or, at least, it sure sounds that way, talking teams at the top of the draft pecking order. One told me that teams close to the bottom of the round have asked more about their interest in moving up from the top of the second round into the bottom of the first than they have about moving up within the first round. And that reflects the nature of the class in general.

“This is very much a depth class,” said an NFC executive. “You can build the base of your roster with picks this year. You can get some solid starters, and some contributors. But you’re not getting a lot of difference-makers." 

So how does that break down? As I see it, after dozens of conversations, the top tackles and pass rushers are valued this year, and then after that probably the top four receivers. But once you get through that group of 10 or so guys, the class flattens out a bunch, right in the mid-teens, where the 15th pick might not be worth much more than the 45th. And even the top group isn’t great—with a few execs having told me the last few months that the top dozen picks last year might be better than anyone this year. So what’s the upshot this year? It’s twofold. One, the second and third rounds should have plenty of gems. And two, it adds a lot more mystery to how the first round will play out for the rest of us.

[OldTimer1960]

30 minutes ago, AuntieEm said:

    

      Our defenses will rarely have to deal with Josh Allen like plays from.opposing QBs but on the odd plays they manage something Josh-like well our boys get lots of practice making plays against those types of plays so think they get an edge there.

I was with you until the bolded section.  

Established star QBs in the AFC:

Allen

Mahommes

Burrows

Herbert

Watson

Jackson

Matt Ryan

Russell Wilson

 

Up and Coming High Upside: Not all these guys will be good, but all high draft picks with talent

Trevor Lawrence

Zach Wilson

Mac Jones

Tua

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by OldTimer1960

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Ideal for me would be Olave/Wilson or Williams@ 25 + trading up for Zion rd 2 and trading up for a Martin Emerson rd 3.  
 

i think Dallas is going to take Zion in rd 1, but Jerry may not be able to pass on Burks, as similar as they may be being RAC demons

Assuming that Johnson would go in the top 10 of the 2nd, it is unlikely that they have the ammo without trading picks from next year to move up in round 2 for him - if they do, they won’t have a 3rd at all, much less ability to trade up in 3rd (unless current roster player is traded).

[Ethan in Cleveland]

30 minutes ago, Logic said:

Albert Breer's column today -- which is worth reading in full, by the way -- reinforces the prevailing thought about this draft class: it's not very top-heavy, does not offer many difference makers, but has great depth into the middle rounds:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/04/25/mmqb-nfl-draft-preview-rumors-32-teams-jaguars-shad-khan

It sounds to me like action at the bottom of the first round might be hotter than action at the top. Or, at least, it sure sounds that way, talking teams at the top of the draft pecking order. One told me that teams close to the bottom of the round have asked more about their interest in moving up from the top of the second round into the bottom of the first than they have about moving up within the first round. And that reflects the nature of the class in general.

“This is very much a depth class,” said an NFC executive. “You can build the base of your roster with picks this year. You can get some solid starters, and some contributors. But you’re not getting a lot of difference-makers." 

So how does that break down? As I see it, after dozens of conversations, the top tackles and pass rushers are valued this year, and then after that probably the top four receivers. But once you get through that group of 10 or so guys, the class flattens out a bunch, right in the mid-teens, where the 15th pick might not be worth much more than the 45th. And even the top group isn’t great—with a few execs having told me the last few months that the top dozen picks last year might be better than anyone this year. So what’s the upshot this year? It’s twofold. One, the second and third rounds should have plenty of gems. And two, it adds a lot more mystery to how the first round will play out for the rest of us.

I agree. In most years there is not much difference between 15 and 45 and this year even more so. That is in part because no high end QBs will go early to push others down the board. 

You can spin a narrative anyway with reasonable logic. Trade up and mortgage the future to get a top CB. Stay put and hope a decent CB is left or one of the WRs fall, or worse case scenario get a solid OL. And then you can argue drop out of the first round and get an extra pick in 2nd or 3rd round. You lose out on the fifth year option but having four picks in the top 100 as opposed to 3 may be worth it.

Lastly a lot could depend on what they do with Edmunds. Do they trade him and immediately draft his replacement? That would create several ripples in the draft order for the Bills.  I would but I don't think Beane will. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Beane is heavy on traits in rd 1.  I expect a jr age 20.5 to 21.5.  I think they will look at secondary and wr.  I think those will be players pushed down by a few Qbs and the amount of Dline and Oline drafted prior to 25.  I put secondary specifically and not just Cb b/c I can see them going with the best athlete even if he could be seen as a slot or saftey like Hill.  I think Olave or Skyy Moore could also be in play.  Losing Beasley is alot of production and targets getting a guy who can play slot but adds some speed would make sense to me. 

I think this says what I've been thinking for a while.  It could even be a DT.   I think McBeane will see a guy, a special talent with character grades that are A+, and they'll go get him.  It's possible the guy will fall to 25, but I think it's more likely that they'll see him at 18, a guy they would have taken in the top 10, and they'll call a few teams to see who is willing to move back a few spots.  They'll swap firsts to get to 19-22 if the guy continues to fall. 

 

DB, WR, or DT.   Possibly even OG or TE, but those seem less likely.  A team can stumble along with a pretty high level of success without ever having gone after a great player at those positions; you can just back and fill until the right guy falls into your lap.  But at DB, WR, and DL you MUST be good or it's hard to be a great team.  Also at OT, but where the Bills are sitting now, it's hard to imagine a guy being such a sure thing at OT that Beane would move way up to get him.  When you get a chance to get a special guy at the right position, you have to take it.  That's exactly what Beane did with Josh and Tremaine.  He's done it with others, too, with mixed success.  But the point isn't whether the move worked or not; the point is that Beane likes to do it if he sees a guy he likes in key positions.  

 

As they get into the mid-teens, if Beane doesn't have one of those guys - a guy he thinks has already fallen too far, then Beane will sit tight and let the draft fall to him.  Most likely he'll have a handful of guys - two to five guys - falling, and he'll just take the guy who's highest on his board. 

 

The least likely scenario is that no one that he has a first round grade on falls to him, and he trades out.   Possible, but I don't see it.  Beane likes getting guys; he doesn't like watching others get guys.   It will take some real discipline on his part to trade out of the first round.   We saw Belichick do it often.   It meant Belichick was being hard nosed about how good he thought guys actually were - he wasn't willing to use the pick just because it was his turn.  He would rather have two seconds and two thirds than one each, 1, 2, 3.

 

I think the Bills will trade up.

[NewEra]

32 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Assuming that Johnson would go in the top 10 of the 2nd, it is unlikely that they have the ammo without trading picks from next year to move up in round 2 for him - if they do, they won’t have a 3rd at all, much less ability to trade up in 3rd (unless current roster player is traded).

I’m 💯 ok with trading picks next year.  

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I agree. In most years there is not much difference between 15 and 45 and this year even more so. That is in part because no high end QBs will go early to push others down the board. 

You can spin a narrative anyway with reasonable logic. Trade up and mortgage the future to get a top CB. Stay put and hope a decent CB is left or one of the WRs fall, or worse case scenario get a solid OL. And then you can argue drop out of the first round and get an extra pick in 2nd or 3rd round. You lose out on the fifth year option but having four picks in the top 100 as opposed to 3 may be worth it.

Lastly a lot could depend on what they do with Edmunds. Do they trade him and immediately draft his replacement? That would create several ripples in the draft order for the Bills.  I would but I don't think Beane will. 

This and the Breer comments that Logic posted are very interesting.   If that's a true description of the nature of the talent in this year's draft, then it would be less likely that we'll see Beane move up, simply because it doesn't sound likely that there are any really special guys to move up for.   Interestingly, that would mean having the #10 this year is pretty tough, because there aren't any guys you want that badly, and there aren't any teams that want to give you much to move up to your spot.   A #10 this year is worth less than a #10 in other years.  And that means teams will adjust their draft value charts when considering trades.  

 

And you just said what I just said, too - four out of the guys ranked 30-100 is better than one in the top 30 and two in the 30-100.   But Beane may find that there are several teams where he is (between 20 and 32), looking to trade back.  The market of buyers to move up may be so thin that he may think the better deal is to move at a bargain price.   You can see how what Beane says is actually true - you have to be prepared to move in a variety of ways, because you don't know what market is going to look like until you get there.  

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I’m 💯 ok with trading picks next year.  

I'm not.  I'm in it for the long term - just keep building with what falls to you as it falls.  Spend to your cap in dollars and use this year's picks, collecting talent that becomes available.   Sometimes it will be first pick you move up for, sometimes it will be a high pick that you got from another team in a trade that turned out well, sometimes it will be a free agent, like Miller.  But don't mortgage your future by overspending cap or giving up next year's picks.  

 

McDermott has to trust Beane to find the talent, and neither McDermott nor Beane should do things that can hamstring Beane in future years.  So far, Beane has an excellent track record.  

[YoloinOhio]

To become the best version of himself in a Bills uni

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not.  I'm in it for the long term - just keep building with what falls to you as it falls.  Spend to your cap in dollars and use this year's picks, collecting talent that becomes available.   Sometimes it will be first pick you move up for, sometimes it will be a high pick that you got from another team in a trade that turned out well, sometimes it will be a free agent, like Miller.  But don't mortgage your future by overspending cap or giving up next year's picks.  

 

McDermott has to trust Beane to find the talent, and neither McDermott nor Beane should do things that can hamstring Beane in future years.  So far, Beane has an excellent track record.  

Trading a pick next year doesn’t preclude being in it for long term.  If we’re getting a first round talent in rd 2, I’m all for it.  

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’ve said as much.  If their top rated player on the board is a CB, I hope that they take him.  I just don’t want them to reach on a corner.  Looking at this draft, you don’t think that the 2nd and 3rd round options I’ve listed could be viable in our scheme?  I do.  I also think that some of the vet FAs could come in and hold down the fort like a Dane did last season.  Our best asset doesn’t have to be used on a corner just because it’s our biggest hole.  You know that’s not how you draft.  
 

their history has shown that they don’t place nearly as much value on cb2 as other positions.  In 3 drafts…. He’s drafted 1 corner…..in the 7th round.  They’ve shown that they can run a very good D with 2 nobodies @ corner.   Kevin Johnson and EJ EJ Gaines played very well in our system.  Until they show that shown that they have changed that philosophy, I don’t see why we would assume they will.  

 

When every defensive player that’s in the rotation is either a first or 2nd round pick or is getting paid decent money defense, one MUST cut corners in certain areas.  The one area where we shouldn’t be cutting corners is protecting our franchise QB and giving him playmakers.  Empower him.  

 

We also have Siran Neal and Nick Mccloud, who i have tempered hopes for.  
 

in short….we don’t have to spend our first rd pick on a cornerback just because it’s our biggest need at the moment.  We should be taking the BPA at a relative area of need.  If that’s cb, that’s great for us and I’m all for it.  Just don’t reach.  
 

I don’t think Booth or Hill are reaches @ 25.  I think the other guys might be (McDuffie only based on his T-rex status, which McB obviously cares about).   

It is very misleading…..but it’s true. Teams had very little success passing on us all season.  It has a lot to do with the lack of good QBs we faced last year.  It also had a lot to do with our scheme, our safeties and our pass rush.  Add von Miller.  Add tredavious white mid season.  

I would say our defensive success in the secondary has as much to do with the scheme as it does with our two all pros at safety

 

They are erasers in the backfield

 

If you watch every other game on NFL Sunday you will see teams getting beat deep week in and week out... Poyer and Hyde were not beat over the top on an actual bomb all year 

 

They do make up for our cornerbacks mistakes... Number two corner will be a lot more important when we don't have both of those all pros back there... And they're getting up there in age

 

Some of the guys you mentioned, have the talent to develop into a starter... But you don't want to necessarily plug them in day one... You Really don't want to plug in any rookie except a blue chip 

 

McDermott's system has been elite against bad teams.. good quarterbacks don't have as much problem with his scheme.. cuz they knowo they can attack the weak corner playing soft coverage

 

We are the thinnest team at outside corner in the NFL.. literally two guys right now and one is coming off a torn ACL.. I do think it's a big need and there's actual first round talent who might be available

 

I've never been worn for reaching just to reach