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The Price Of Keeping Dawson Knox


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4 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

 

 

intermediary stats are secondary to the #1 statistic which is scoring points, add in catching the passes when target, in those two categories, Knox is ranked #1 & #2, I mean is it or is it not the end results that matter the most???

 

3 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

 
 

   You appear to be quite risk adverse about  a guy who catches his targets at a very high rate, and scores a lot of TDs, 

 

14 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

not exactly, he says high rate and scores a lot of TDs, not just catch%.

 

the stat I replied to is "There were 15 TE's who caught 0ver 70% of their targets last year.  Knox wasn't one of them." which is brought up by you.

 

Anyway, the point is that stats are easy to manipulate to make the point people want to make.

 

His catch rate was among the worst of the TEs.  I posted to refute that claim. It's not "manipulating stats" to point out an error....

 

Not sure what the issue is here.  anyway, don't pay the guy yet.

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1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Every time I see a post like this I laugh.  Don't you think Knox is thinking the same thing & for that reason the only way he's signing is if he gets big $?  It's as if some people think that players don't consult their agents and the team can get away with a lowball offer.  Even if the player does sign, a low contract will cause problems if the player and his agent think they've exceeded his contract.  Remember, the Bills & Jason Peters reached an impasse that resulted in him being traded away just as he was approaching his prime years because they got away with a low contract-until they didn't.    

Who said low ball offer?! I laugh at people who read something and interpret it with their beliefs and not for the face value it was written. Fair Market Value. 

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7 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

But the discussion is about Knox, who, in this his best season, was 15th in yards and 18th in catches

You forgot to mention he was 2nd in TD's.

 

He also has great value as a blocker.  You want a TE you can count on the block and catch , he can do both well.

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1 hour ago, Robert Paulson said:

he has gotten better every year and this year he actually blocked a bit. if you can get him for  $12-15M/year ave i'd jump on it.

 

it is only going to go up 

That's crazy money.  What if he gets the dropsies again. Best to wait.  Half a season isn't gonna change the number.  But 12-15 mil per yr. No thanks

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5 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I don’t think this backing up the “Brinks truck” is what going to happen, unless we wait to long.  
 

 

 

I'll gladly back up the Brinks truck if Knox has a legit break out year like 80 receptions 1000 yards and 9 TD's. But I'm not sure about paying him somewhere around 10 million per year now on an extension just based on a break out year of 50 receptions 600 yards and 9 TD's. I would lean towards letting him play on his current deal next season unless he ends up only costing like 6 million a year. 

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1 hour ago, klos63 said:

You forgot to mention he was 2nd in TD's.

 

He also has great value as a blocker.  You want a TE you can count on the block and catch , he can do both well.


I didn’t forget.  It was mentioned several times. Scroll up

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1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I'll gladly back up the Brinks truck if Knox has a legit break out year like 80 receptions 1000 yards and 9 TD's. But I'm not sure about paying him somewhere around 10 million per year now on an extension just based on a break out year of 50 receptions 600 yards and 9 TD's. I would lean towards letting him play on his current deal next season unless he ends up only costing like 6 million a year. 

We stand to miss the boat on a really good TE when another team makes him an offer he can’t refuse, and the Bills have to start over again, that would be so very Billsey…, 

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Love Knox and want us to sign him.  This is the year to draft a good tight end by rounds 3-4 so (i) can create mismatches with Knox on the field, (ii) give us a tiny bit of leverage in the Knox negotiations, and (iii) provide us some insurance in case Knox is showered with cash by a team that overpays and that Beane won't match. 

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2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

We stand to miss the boat on a really good TE when another team makes him an offer he can’t refuse, and the Bills have to start over again, that would be so very Billsey…, 


So the Bills won’t back up the Brinks truck then?  Bills can also always franchise tag him too as others have said. He’s had one average year. Yes he’s trending up but $10 million per year now seems a little premature. Let’s at least get a 80 catch 1,000 yard type of season.

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41 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

He's going to be very expensive. You have to pay him. He's a top-flight weapon for Josh.

 

I mean, there is probably a figure we wouldn't pay, but as long as everyone's reasonable, he should stay, and he should get a lot.

 

 

I’m not so sure you have to pay Knox...there are some very good TE’s coming out this year, that can be had in the mid rounds- some with, potentially, higher ceilings than Knox...I’m not really concerned...

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1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:


So the Bills won’t back up the Brinks truck then?  Bills can also always franchise tag him too as others have said. He’s had one average year. Yes he’s trending up but $10 million per year now seems a little premature. Let’s at least get a 80 catch 1,000 yard type of season.

Then you're looking at Kelce/Kittle money.  At least 15 million a year.  Pry more adjusted for inflation. 

 

If you're Knox right now and Beane offers you a three year 29.5 million dollar extension (8m average annual for the next four years), do you take it?

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7 hours ago, klos63 said:

You forgot to mention he was 2nd in TD's.

 

He also has great value as a blocker.  You want a TE you can count on the block and catch , he can do both well.

 

Yes, it's really overlooked, but he was a significant part of the running game's major improvement. His blocking made a massive leap this year.

 

1 hour ago, JaCrispy said:

I’m not so sure you have to pay Knox...there are some very good TE’s coming out this year, that can be had in the mid rounds- some with, potentially, higher ceilings than Knox...I’m not really concerned...

 

 

Guess we'll have to disagree. Good TEs that can be had in the mid-rounds are guesses. Some might work out. Some might become as good as Knox. The odds are it would be most likely one or none. 

 

Knox at this point is a sure thing. And a guy who can both catch and block. Those guys don't grow on trees. And if your team is built around success in the pass game and your first priority is to make your QB comfortable and give him dangerous options - and that's the Bills - you don't give away a sure thing weapon for a maybe in a few years guy.

 

Not that I'd mind picking up one of those mid-round guys. That'd be great if he's BPA. Two TE offenses can make a really nice change. But I really don't see them getting rid of Knox, barring injury or some other problem. The guy is still on the way up.

 

 

Edited by Thurman#1
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2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:


So the Bills won’t back up the Brinks truck then?  Bills can also always franchise tag him too as others have said. He’s had one average year. Yes he’s trending up but $10 million per year now seems a little premature. Let’s at least get a 80 catch 1,000 yard type of season.

 

 

"Average year?" No way. You look at his TDs, his blocking and how young he is and that year was in no way average. It was a very good year.

 

Good yards per catch, good catch percentage, for a third year guy.

 

And I'm with Doc Brown above. If he gets an 80 catch 1000 yard type of season he's going to get much more in a contract. And IMO he'll have that kind of season if he's targeted the way the TEs who have that kind of season are targeted.

 

 

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