Bills offense compared to 2020 by the numbers, and they may shock you.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

How is TD% of 5.7 in 2020 better than 6.1% is 2021?

omg 😱 

the length’s people are going to 🤦‍♂️ 

 

1 the season is not over 

2 even if Select #’s are down that doesn’t mean Josh has gotten worse 

 

 

[HamSandwhich]

These numbers don’t shock me at all, in fact, that is exactly what I thought. Thanks for confirming my bias. 

[LyndonvilleBill]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

I dig that Josh Allen's accuracy still holds up. He's the real deal.

Might even be better considering it's 2.02% less which would be about 9 receptions more on his current attempts. Wonder what it would be if we just ran a few jet sweeps like we did last year. Would his completion % be better than last year?🤔. Aren't jet sweeps considered pass completions?

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Might even be better considering it's 2.02% less which would be about 9 receptions more on his current attempts. Wonder what it would be if we just ran a few jet sweeps like we did last year. Would his completion % be better than last year?🤔. Aren't jet sweeps considered pass completions?

 

It depends how they are done. The Bills definitely ran them as forward passes as do most teams now to reduce the fumble risk. 

[billsfan1959]

50 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

omg 😱 

the length’s people are going to 🤦‍♂️ 

 

1 the season is not over 

2 even if Select #’s are down that doesn’t mean Josh has gotten worse 

 

Right. Comparing statistics from one season to another season (much less a season with 6 games left to a previous complete season) without any underlying analyses of factors that contributed to the play in either season is pointless. Drawing conclusions such as Allen "is not as sharp as last year" from statistics only is ridiculous.

 

This might sound shocking to the OP; however, maybe a bit of analyses of the underlying variables migh be helpful in understanding the "statistics." Take, for instance, the top 5 offensive linemen have played together in only 2 games and the top 4 linemen in only 4 games - out of 11 total games this year, and in most games, the offensive line has been a complete s*** show of musical chairs and awful play. How does that compare to the offensive line play last year? Or, what are the differences in the way defenses are playing the Bills this year as opposed to last year. Etc., etc., etc.

 

Instead, we are constantly bombarded with lazy analyses and unfounded conclusions... 

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by billsfan1959

[SoCal Deek]

12 hours ago, Virgil said:

Thanks Virgil

That’s actually amazing. You couldn’t get more similar stats if you tried, and I’m sure he’s not. So it’s all going to come down to whether the Bills come anywhere close to running the table to finish this season as they did last year. That’ll be the beginning or end of the story. 

[Billsfan1972]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Disagree.  

 

Pitt - We lost this game over a blocked punt.  Or you can take any number of penalties that either took points off our board or gave points to Pitt.  They weren't "built to stop us", we beat ourselves.  We should have won that game.

 

Tenn - Literally lost this game on Josh losing his footing on a sneak which he has converted at over 95% over his career.   You can also point to a number of dumb penalties that either took points off our board or gave them points by extending drives too.  Again, shot oursevles in the foot.  Not that they were "built to beat us".   We should have won that game.

 

Jags - Our OL played its worst game I have ever seen probably in the McD era.  But again, multiple times we had penalties or dumb mistakes shoot ourselves in the foot again.  They weren't "built to beat us", we again beat ourselves.

 

Colts - Missing our best run defender (Star) and captain of our defense (Edmunds) was already a tough start to this game.  Still missing 2 starters on the OL also was a big problem.  Yet, despite all that...the REAL difference in that game was once again self inflicted mistakes.  Our first drive of the game we moved the ball at will.  Then on 3rd and 2, Josh is easily going to pickup 10-20 yards on a run, but play blown dead due to false start.  Next play...holding...suddenly its 3rd and 18 and outside FG range.  Shot ourselves in the foot.  We would then go on to get off the field on 3rd down on defense just to see us give them a free first down with a penalty flag...again, allowing them to eventually score points.  Now we get the ball near end of half with us also getting ball to start second half...putting us in a spot where we could take the lead...instead McKenzie gives them a free TD with his self inflicted fumble.  Still with 2 possessions in a row to end and start the halves...we again get 0 points thanks again to self inflicted issues like penalties and dropped passes.  

 

You see the theme here?  We continuously beat ourselves in all 4 games.  These teams weren't "built to beat us", we just too often committed fundamental mistakes that are 100% in our own control.  Not to mention, some pretty bad officiating too.  I would also note...in those 4 losses we were often missing key players like Star, Spencer, and Feliciano too...all of which had an impact on those games we lost.  

Right on every count and unfortunately happens to almost every team annually.  Unfortunately the Bills have been on the wrong side in three games (Indy if those things don't happens who knows).  

 

There are hiccups every year and this year has been painfully apparent with these perplexing losses.

 

That is why I keep saying the Bills should spank NE on Monday and there should be no questions whatsoever.  The fear of BB and the Pats really irks me.   

 

If they don't then it is a coaching issue imo.

[FireChans]

10 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

How is the TD% worse? It's better. 

Look at the photo!

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

How is TD% of 5.7 in 2020 better than 6.1% is 2021?

His TD percentage was 6.5% in 2020, that’s how. 

9 hours ago, What a Tuel said:

 

He is comparing full 2020 to partial 2021. This thread feels very agenda driven. Its like click bait for Bills fans that want to trash the team. 

 

Sometimes qbs don't pass the vaunted eye test, well some fans don't pass the eye test either. It almost feels like they wait in the shadows to strike the moment the team lies low. Thats not to say they don't root for the Bills and aren't real fans, but that doesn't mean they don't extract some pleasure on social media when they trash them. 

Yes, my “Josh is playing great and the offense is still great” thread is secretly designed to trash the team. When are you going to apply to the Hardy Boys to solve the next dastardly case?

[FireChans]

24 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Right. Comparing statistics from one season to another season (much less a season with 6 games left to a previous complete season) without any underlying analyses of factors that contributed to the play in either season is pointless. Drawing conclusions such as Allen "is not as sharp as last year" from statistics only is ridiculous.

 

This might sound shocking to the OP; however, maybe a bit of analyses of the underlying variables migh be helpful in understanding the "statistics." Take, for instance, the top 5 offensive linemen have played together in only 2 games and the top 4 linemen in only 4 games - out of 11 total games this year, and in most games, the offensive line has been a complete s*** show of musical chairs and awful play. How does that compare to the offensive line play last year? Or, what are the differences in the way defenses are playing the Bills this year as opposed to last year. Etc., etc., etc.

 

Instead, we are constantly bombarded with lazy analyses and unfounded conclusions... 

 

You can say Allen is not as sharp this year because of the OL inconsistency. I wouldn’t even disagree. But he still isn’t as sharp this year.

 

Why would anyone use less data points from 2020 to make a comparison? The more data points is better. Obviously, having both full seasons to compare would be great, but I don’t know the future. I can’t really add games that haven’t been played yet. 
 

Some of you are obviously threatened by statistics. The numbers may not tell

the whole story, and they rarely do, but they also don’t lie.

[Billsfan1972]

30 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Right. Comparing statistics from one season to another season (much less a season with 6 games left to a previous complete season) without any underlying analyses of factors that contributed to the play in either season is pointless. Drawing conclusions such as Allen "is not as sharp as last year" from statistics only is ridiculous.

 

This might sound shocking to the OP; however, maybe a bit of analyses of the underlying variables migh be helpful in understanding the "statistics." Take, for instance, the top 5 offensive linemen have played together in only 2 games and the top 4 linemen in only 4 games - out of 11 total games this year, and in most games, the offensive line has been a complete s*** show of musical chairs and awful play. How does that compare to the offensive line play last year? Or, what are the differences in the way defenses are playing the Bills this year as opposed to last year. Etc., etc., etc.

 

Instead, we are constantly bombarded with lazy analyses and unfounded conclusions... 

 

These are not lazy ass stats, they are facts.  If you want to break them down, by all means.  How about going play by play?  95% here are not coaches or ex-coaches who spend every waking second breaking down plays.

 

It is no different then me being questioned when I put up the two box scores from the NE games last year and noted in Buffalo, I thought the Bills played scared, threw only 18 times and were passive in a game they easily could have lost.  Game two, they were decisive, punched NE in the face, threw for over 320 and destroyed them.

 

However obviously I did not break down game film and each play, so I was just showing a box score. 

 

 I think the offense is similar this year in stats, but yep don't pass the eye test, and that to me is not adjusting to how others are scheming the Bills and overall questionable play calling.  Again no definitive examples, just my opinion, that I think is backed by their performance. 

[billsfan1959]

14 hours ago, FireChans said:

So 2020 was a great offensive season by the Bills. Wonderful, exciting, electric, whatever you want to call it.

 

We can all agree the 2021 offense has its moments where it feels like a continuation of 2020 and moments where it feels like we are back in 2019. But what do the numbers say?

 

1. We are actually better at running the ball this year.

 

Last year, the Bills were 17th in attempts, 20th in yards, 15th in TD's and 20th in YPA.

 

This year, we are 17th in attempts, 11th in yards, 9th in TD's and 9th in YPA.

 

Some of this may be explained by Josh running a bit more (he's averaging 34 YPG compared to 28 last season, but on a similar number of attempts per game 6.4 to 6.3), but the fact remains, we are better at running.

 

2. We are worse through the air this year.

 

Last year, 11th in attempts, 3rd in TD's, 3rd in yards, 9th in INT's and 4th in NY/A

 

This year, 8th in attempts, 3rd in TD's, 7th in yards, 24th in INT's, and 10th in NY/A.

 

A lot of this is Josh, statistically. He is across the board less efficient and more TO prone compared to last season. Still playing great, still one of the best young QB's in the NFL, but not 2020 Josh.

 

3. On the whole, we are not much different than last year.

 

I have long held the belief that the best statistic to judge a unit to their peers is their "per drive" stats. Not as prone to confabulation due to the defense creating opportunities for the offense etc. 

 

Last year, Bills offense 2nd in score percentage, 15th in TO percentage, 5th in time of possession, 10th in plays per drive (an admittedly stat missing in utility due to scoring fast not being particularly bad), 4th in yards per drive, and 3rd in points per drive.

 

This year, Bills offense 2nd in score percentage, 12th in TO percentage, 14th in time of possession, 10th in plays per drive (an admittedly stat missing in utility due to scoring fast not being particularly bad), 4th in yards per drive, and 2nd in points per drive.

 

Outside of the huge difference in time per drive (which may be related to sheer number of possessions due to a great defense), we are still a very similar offense per drive. We score often, we are efficient, we get a lot of yards and we get a lot of points. Our TO% is actually better despite our INT number climbing, likely due to less fumbling overall.

 

Conclusions? Josh is just not as sharp as he was last year, but overall he is still playing great football and leading a great offense, an offense that by the numbers is just as good as the one last year.

 

The variance we are seeing from Josh is not really uncommon, even among the historically great. Last year, Aaron Rodgers threw for 48 TDs. This year, through 11 games, he has thrown for only 23, which will likely place him in the mid 30's as a season total trendwise. His passer rating is a full 17 points less this year compared to last year.

 

The great QB's have good years, and great years, and insane years. We aren't in an insane year for Josh. We are in a great year. And our offense continues to remain great.

 

Could you please point out for us where it is exactly, in this entire post, where you detail how Allen's play is the direct cause of the decreased efficiency of the offense from your "statistical perspective." You know, as opposed to any decreased efficiency possibly being caused by other factors. Please point out the specifics, or feel free to add them now.

 

And remember, correlation does not imply causation.

 

Or, just continue to give your opinion as if it is fact, and then support it with statistics that don't actually prove your conclusions

[teef]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

These are not lazy ass stats, they are facts.  If you want to break them down, by all means.  How about going play by play?  95% here are not coaches or ex-coaches who spend every waking second breaking down plays.

 

It is no different then me being questioned when I put up the two box scores from the NE games last year and noted in Buffalo, I thought the Bills played scared, threw only 18 times and were passive in a game they easily could have lost.  Game two, they were decisive, punched NE in the face, threw for over 320 and destroyed them.

 

However obviously I did not break down game film and each play, so I was just showing a box score. 

 

 I think the offense is similar this year in stats, but yep don't pass the eye test, and that to me is not adjusting to how others are scheming the Bills and overall questionable play calling.  Again no definitive examples, just my opinion, that I think is backed by their performance. 

you were questioned because it's not an apples to apples comparison.  what happened against the pats last year is a completely different scenario due to who the pats are now.  

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Could you please point out for us where it is exactly, in this entire post, where you detail how Allen's play is the direct cause of the decreased efficiency of the offense from your "statistical perspective." You know, as opposed to any decreased efficiency possibly being caused by other factors. Please point out the specifics, or feel free to add them now.

 

And remember, correlation does not imply causation.

 

Or, just continue to give your opinion as if it is fact, and then support it with statistics that don't actually prove your conclusions

i think you're on someone's radar now.

[billsfan1959]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

These are not lazy ass stats, they are facts.

 

They are facts from a numbers perspective only. They do absolutely nothing in regard to saying whether or not Allen is less or more efficient this year without looking at all the variables that contributed to those statistics.

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

One of the best posts of the year. Adds real context to what we are seeing. 

 

I wonder @FireChans if you have looked at consistency game to game? My perception is that the offense has been more boom or bust in 2021 than in 2020.... but that is perception I haven't crunched the numbers on it. 

Honestly that would require such a deep dive into variance to be statistically significant, I don’t have the effort in me to do it. 
 

Bar napkin style, you could look at trends in our point totals per game and compare averages but I just don’t know how valid it would be.

 

Off the top of my head, I would say, like most posters have echoed, we really turned it on for the last stretch of 2020. In early games where we scored a bunch, like the Rams, our offense went to sleep in the second half which enabled them to come back.

7 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Could you please point out for us where it is exactly, in this entire post, where you detail how Allen's play is the direct cause of the decreased efficiency of the offense from your "statistical perspective." You know, as opposed to any decreased efficiency possibly being caused by other factors. Please point out the specifics, or feel free to add them now.

 

And remember, correlation does not imply causation.

 

Or, just continue to give your opinion as if it is fact, and then support it with statistics that don't actually prove your conclusions

Allen’s statistics demonstrate that he is not as efficient as last year. This can be due to many different factors. 
 

Aaron Rodgers statistics demonstrate that he is not as efficient as last year. This can be due to many different factors.

 

Both are still great QB’s.

9 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Extremely agenda driven.   @FireChans is a notorious Allen hater/doubter, especially in the early years.  So to dig into his/her foxhole to create a thread to try and illustrate that Allen has regressed to the point he/she can try and justify their ire at the pick is par for the course.  

 

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Which is why he’s manipulating information to paint the narrative he wants even though it’s not factual.  Which is also pretty par for the course for him.

Should I start charging rent for how much real estate I have in your brains?

 

Only on TBD is comparing every game available “manipulating data.” 

Edited December 1, 2021 by FireChans

[billsfan1959]

38 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You can say Allen is not as sharp this year because of the OL inconsistency. I wouldn’t even disagree. But he still isn’t as sharp this year.

 

Why would anyone use less data points from 2020 to make a comparison? The more data points is better. Obviously, having both full seasons to compare would be great, but I don’t know the future. I can’t really add games that haven’t been played yet. 
 

Some of you are obviously threatened by statistics. The numbers may not tell

the whole story, and they rarely do, but they also don’t lie.

 

Statistics don't scare me at all. I deal with them all the time. For the sake of argument, let's say that the numbers indicate offensive efficiency and production are down from the first 11 games of last year. What you can say from those numbers is exactly that: offensive efficiency and production are down from the first 11 games of last year. What you cannot say is that the reason for that is Josh "is across the board less efficient and more TO prone compared to last season."  As an aside, betweeen INTs and lost fumbles, Allen has less turnovers than in the first eleven games last year. 

 

But back to my point. Allen may actually be more efficient and a better QB from the perspective of what is going on around him on the field. You know, things like the play of everyone else on the field around him, situational factors, etc. Or, he may not be. Those numbers do not actually tell us. Generalizing conclusions based on numbers alone is where statistics become lies.

 

BTW, the reason you do not compare a full season to 11 games is because the 11 games an incomplete sample size for comparison purposes. Even then, numbers to numbers comparisons do not actually tell you whether or not an individual player was better or worse than he was in another season.

 

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Should I start charging rent for how much real estate I have in your brains?

 

I'd gladly pay it if you promise to use the money to take a class on how to understand and use statistics.

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by billsfan1959

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Statistics don't scare me at all. I deal with them all the time. For the sake of argument, let's say that the numbers indicate offensive efficiency and production are down from the first 11 games of last year. What you can say from those numbers is exactly that: offensive efficiency and production are down from the first 11 games of last year. What you cannot say is that the reason for that is Josh "is across the board less efficient and more TO prone compared to last season."  As an aside, betweeen INTs and lost fumbles, Allen has less turnovers than in the first eleven games last year. 

 

But back to my point. Allen may actually be more efficient and a better QB from the perspective of what is going on around him on the field. You know, things like the play of everyone else on the field around him, situational factors, etc. Or, he may not be. Those numbers do not actually tell us. Generalizing conclusions based on numbers alone is where statistics become lies.

 

BTW, the reason you do not compare a full season to 11 games is because the 11 games an incomplete sample size for comparison purposes. Even then, numbers to numbers comparisons do not actually tell you whether or not an individual player was better or worse than he was in another season.

 

 

I'd gladly pay it if you promise to use the money to take a class on how to understand and use statistics.

 

Why are you cherry picking 11 data points instead of 16 from last year? 
 

Josh’s passing statistics are his efficiency statistics. YPA, TD% etc. These are all efficiency statistics!

 

I basically wrote in my OP that Josh’s stats are a little worse but he’s playing great and our offense is still great. Did you even read it?

[thenorthremembers]

I dont see the point in comparing last year's team with this year's.   Different team, different roster, different opponents.   Past results will not always predict future success. 

[Motorin']

59 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Look at the photo!

His TD percentage was 6.5% in 2020, that’s how. 

Yes, my “Josh is playing great and the offense is still great” thread is secretly designed to trash the team. When are you going to apply to the Hardy Boys to solve the next dastardly case?

 

Lame. You're ignoring perhaps the most defining Josh Allen stat through his first three years. 

 

He plays his best football in the last quarter of the season. We shall see if that trends continues, but you're being a lame ass if you refuse to look at where he was at through the 11 games last year and this year. 

 

Regardless, he's on pace to throw more TD's this year and be sacked fewer times. So he isn't worse in every category, as much as that would please you.

 

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Motorin'

[Billsfan1972]

37 minutes ago, teef said:

you were questioned because it's not an apples to apples comparison.  what happened against the pats last year is a completely different scenario due to who the pats are now.  

i think you're on someone's radar now.

 

Again missing the point.  I stated that game 2 the Bills did not play scared and threw the ball and buried them.  This is the same offense, so yes I think they are much better then the Pats defense and need to employ the same plan.

 

Why do you think coaches watch game film.  I'll bet you they are watching the 2020 game film to see what went right and what went wrong.

 

I love how people flip on a dime.  When I did a thread that the Offense seemed off, many told me how wrong I was and quoted stats #1 point differential and points scored, which are lazy ass stats according to some questioning the validity of this thread.

 

I think most actually agree that the 2021 #'s are better, however there are issues with the offense.  I consider most of those issues a result of coaching & play calling.

 

As for Allen, the issues with Ints really has been the last month and is a little bit of a concern.  Is he frustrated and forcing the ball and thus something the coaching/play calling can fix. 

 

But keep cherry picking depending on whether you like the poster.

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Billsfan1972

[PolishDave]

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

So 2020 was a great offensive season by the Bills. Wonderful, exciting, electric, whatever you want to call it.

 

We can all agree the 2021 offense has its moments where it feels like a continuation of 2020 and moments where it feels like we are back in 2019. But what do the numbers say?

 

Outside of the huge difference in time per drive (which may be related to sheer number of possessions due to a great defense), we are still a very similar offense per drive. We score often, we are efficient, we get a lot of yards and we get a lot of points. Our TO% is actually better despite our INT number climbing, likely due to less fumbling overall.

 

Conclusions? Josh is just not as sharp as he was last year, but overall he is still playing great football and leading a great offense, an offense that by the numbers is just as good as the one last year.

 

The variance we are seeing from Josh is not really uncommon, even among the historically great. Last year, Aaron Rodgers threw for 48 TDs. This year, through 11 games, he has thrown for only 23, which will likely place him in the mid 30's as a season total trendwise. His passer rating is a full 17 points less this year compared to last year.

 

The great QB's have good years, and great years, and insane years. We aren't in an insane year for Josh. We are in a great year. And our offense continues to remain great.

 

I like your thought process and agree with your conclusions.

 

I am a big believer in looking at stats relative to the rest of the league.   In my opinion it is the most logical approach to analyzing stats and the one that gives the clearest picture of what you want to know - "how good is this player or this team under this year's circumstances."     It would be ridiculous for someone analyzing stats to say one team was better than the other at running the ball just because they had more total rushing yards at the end of the season compared to last year.    It is ridiculous because it doesn't account for things like number of attempts nor changes in personnel on your team or opponents nor how strong the opponents rushing defense was nor strength of schedule nor a million other variables.

 

The way you eliminate more of those noisy variables is by comparing your team under its relative circumstances right now to last years team's relative circumstances as they were last year.    

 

All I care about is whether my team is better this year compared to the rest of the NFL than it was in prior years.   Because, that gives me the best insight into how good or how bad my team really is.   How dominant is my offense or defense this year compared to how dominant or not it was in previous years.

 

Nice analysis.

[teef]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

Again missing the point.  I stated that game 2 the Bills did not play scared and threw the ball and buried them.  This is the same offense, so yes I think they are much better then the Pats defense and need to employ the same plan.

 

I love how people flip on a dime.  When I did a thread that the Offense seemed off, many told me how wrong I was and quoted stats #1 point differential and points scored, which are lazy ass stats according to some questioning the validity of this thread.

 

I think most actually agree that the 2021 #'s are better, however there are issues with the offense.  I consider most of those issues a result of coaching & play calling.

 

But keep cherry picking depending on whether you like the poster.

 

bud, no on is cherry picking anything depending on whether they like you as a poster.  that's completely in your head.  

 

you give examples by posting two box scores from last year.  you say the bills played scared last year in the first game and less so in the second.  this was discussed countless times last year.  you think the bills were playing scared, and most felt allen wasn't the qb he eventually became in the second game.  the bills were far more cautious and conservative due to allen's development imo.  you mention that the offense is the same, but is it the same pat's defense this year?  isn't that worth considering.

 

when you did a thread where the offense seemed off, that all started with a thread where you felt diggs wasn't getting enough targets.  that's when people disagreed with you.  the offense was humming along, and as long as the production was there, no one seemed to care where the production was coming from.  most i'm sure would still feel that way.  then it evolved into something strange.  

 

you think there are issues with the offense this year, and there are.  you think it's due to coaching and play calling, where i think it's more of a personnel issue, especially with the line.  

 

so after all of this, what's your endgame?  to tell everyone you're right?  why?  do you need it that bad?  

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Why are you cherry picking 11 data points instead of 16 from last year? 
 

Josh’s passing statistics are his efficiency statistics. YPA, TD% etc. These are all efficiency statistics!

 

I basically wrote in my OP that Josh’s stats are a little worse but he’s playing great and our offense is still great. Did you even read it?

 

1) I am not cherry picking anything. To me, it is pointless to compare seasons because the variables that go into the numbers are so different. You wanted to compare seasons. So, I am saying you cannot compare 11 games this year with 16 last year. It tells you nothing. Saying where Allen stands after 11 games this year as opposed to after 11 games last year doesn't really tell you much either; however, it is more reasonable if that is the route you want to go.

 

2) As far as efficiency goes, this is not a matter of semantics. We are talking about two separate issues. The first is a numbers issue. Those are a statistical measurement in offensive efficiency. They tell us only whether or not offensive numbers are better or worse than a comparison sample. The second is drawing conclusions from those numbers.

 

If you were simply trying to say in your post is that offensive numbers from a statistical perspective are down, then I wouldn't have a problem with that. However, you went on to say, "A lot of this is Josh...Conclusions? ...he is just not as sharp as he was last year." That is an opinion, not a legitimate conclusion from the statistics. That is where I have the problem. Allen could be absolutely as sharp, or even moreso, than last year, he just might not be putting up similar or better numbers because of other reasons. In other words, he could actually be a better QB than he was last year and not have better "numbers."

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, teef said:

bud, no on is cherry picking anything depending on whether they like you as a poster.  that's completely in your head.  

 

you give examples by posting two box scores from last year.  you say the bills played scared last year in the first game and less so in the second.  this was discussed countless times last year.  you think the bills were playing scared, and most felt allen wasn't the qb he eventually became in the second game.  the bills were far more cautious and conservative due to allen's development imo.  you mention that the offense is the same, but is it the same pat's defense this year?  isn't that worth considering.

 

when you did a thread where the offense seemed off, that all started with a thread where you felt diggs wasn't getting enough targets.  that's when people disagreed with you.  the offense was humming along, and as long as the production was there, no one seemed to care where the production was coming from.  most i'm sure would still feel that way.  then it evolved into something strange.  

 

you think there are issues with the offense this year, and there are.  you think it's due to coaching and play calling, where i think it's more of a personnel issue, especially with the line.  

 

so after all of this, what's your endgame?  to tell everyone you're right?  why?  do you need it that bad?  

Wow an actual response....  I'm impressed.

 

Allen already was imo.  The Bills were 5-2 and outside the Tenn & KC stumbles was great (300+ passing in 4 of 7 games).

 

I have said coaching and play calling all along and too with the lack of targets to Diggs.  

 

The offense to me has been okay, but no where near what I think they can/should be and that is why I made those threads/posts, when most thought they were humming.  And since then I think there has been a further decline that I blame again on coaching & play calling.   

 

Yes NE's defense is better, I just think the Bills Offense is much better and good Offense should win out.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

These are not lazy ass stats, they are facts.  If you want to break them down, by all means.  How about going play by play?  95% here are not coaches or ex-coaches who spend every waking second breaking down plays.

 

It is no different then me being questioned when I put up the two box scores from the NE games last year and noted in Buffalo, I thought the Bills played scared, threw only 18 times and were passive in a game they easily could have lost.  Game two, they were decisive, punched NE in the face, threw for over 320 and destroyed them.

 

Did you show this part of the box score when you concluded the Bills played scared?  During the first game, there were strong gusty winds.  Second game, light winds.

Allen was also 3 games out from a shoulder injury and had just moved up from a linebacker brace to a slightly less restrictive brace during the first game.

Allen was fully healed and had been throwing with precision the 2nd game

 

"Playing scared" had nothing to do with the playcalling choice of 38 runs 18 passes first game and 31 runs 40 passes 2nd game.  Gusty winds, rain vs mist and the state of Allen's shoulder were factors.

 

First game:

Second game:

 

[teef]

20 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Wow an actual response....  I'm impressed.

 

Allen already was imo.  The Bills were 5-2 and outside the Tenn & KC stumbles was great (300+ passing in 4 of 7 games).

 

I have said coaching and play calling all along and too with the lack of targets to Diggs.  

 

The offense to me has been okay, but no where near what I think they can/should be and that is why I made those threads/posts, when most thought they were humming.  And since then I think there has been a further decline that I blame again on coaching & play calling.   

 

Yes NE's defense is better, I just think the Bills Offense is much better and good Offense should win out.

 

 

you've been given actual response multiple times.  you just typically don't like what you hear.  

 

allen definitely wasn't the same player at the beginning of last year as he was towards the end.  i suppose that's where we disagree.  i also disagree that coaching and play calling is the reason why the bills are stumbling a bit this year.  you can blame the staff for not addressing certain needs i suppose, but the OL has been a mess.

 

and for the offense of the bills being better...they should be.  they are on paper, but that doesn't matter.  right now the pats are playing better, more consistent football.  there's no question to that.  does it mean the bills will lose?  not at all.  

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

Dawg, overall I agree with your point, but with one exception: I don't think we can spin the Colts game in any other way than they flat-out beat us up and down all day. Yes, we helped them with a costly turnover and some dumb penalties. But in the end, they whipped our behinds. The one that will sting all year is the Jaguars games, I still have nightmares from that game. But your point is on target, when we play our at our best, I am still confident the Bills are the best team in the AFC.

I don’t disagree about the butt whooping , but the Colts are not as good as we made them look through our own faults.  We ourselves are the sole reason the game got away from us in the first half.  And it literally boiled down to five plays where we gave the game away that first half and start of second half with dumb penalties, free unforced fumble, or dropped wide open pass.  
 

Point was, the losses were more on us than being overmatched by our opponents.  If we play the Colts 10 times with Star and Edmunds active, I guarantee we win more games than we lose.

Edited December 1, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Billsfan1972]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Did you show this part of the box score when you concluded the Bills played scared?  During the first game, there were strong gusty winds.  Second game, light winds.

Allen was also 3 games out from a shoulder injury and had just moved up from a linebacker brace to a slightly less restrictive brace during the first game.

Allen was fully healed and had been throwing with precision the 2nd game

 

"Playing scared" had nothing to do with the playcalling choice of 38 runs 18 passes first game and 31 runs 40 passes 2nd game.  Gusty winds, rain vs mist and the state of Allen's shoulder were factors.

 

First game:

Second game:

 

He threw for 307 the week prior and 415 the week after.  There was some wind, but not terrible.  As for his shoulder I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.  

 

I remember them playing passive.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

 

His TD percentage was 6.5% in 2020, that’s how. 

 

This is why it’s impossible for anyone to ever take you seriously around here.  You intentionally manipulate data to force an agenda all the time.  It’s literally like your thing.

 

THROUGH 11 GAMES…Josh is BETTER in more categories than he is worse compared to last years 11 games at this same time…INCLUDING TD%.
 

YOU KNOW THIS because several people have sent you the data.  Yet here you are still pushing this childish bulls**t response of comparing Josh through 11 games this year to Josh full season last year which is NOT how you compare because one of the data sets is INCOMPLETE.  

 

Literally why your posts like this are most often a waste of time.  Sad part is, if you would stop being such a trollish child about things like this all the time, you might be a decent poster.

 

PS:  You don’t have to manipulate and skew data to communicate a thought or opinion.  You should try it sometime.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Right on every count and unfortunately happens to almost every team annually.  Unfortunately the Bills have been on the wrong side in three games (Indy if those things don't happens who knows).  

 

There are hiccups every year and this year has been painfully apparent with these perplexing losses.

 

That is why I keep saying the Bills should spank NE on Monday and there should be no questions whatsoever.  The fear of BB and the Pats really irks me.   

 

If they don't then it is a coaching issue imo.

Yeah I agree.  IMHO I think we will decisively beat the Pats.  Mac Jones isn’t playing as great as the media and people are making it out to be.  He is just playing well enough to help them beat bad teams.  He’s not going off for 300 yards and 3 TDs.  But they have been playing teams mostly in a rut or who are bad and struggling to score.  So he hasn’t had to do a lot for them to win those 6 games.

 

The defense has been playing very good though for them, but again, they haven’t been tested I these 6 games by an offense like ours either.  So I think it’s a bit like how dominant our D looked against lower competition earlier this year.  
 

My expectation is we will put up somewhere between 24 and 38 points while the Pats score somewhere between 9 and 20 points.  
 

Especially since we are getting Star, Spencer and Feliciano back this week.  OL and run D should see a decent upgrade this week.

[billsfan1959]

46 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Wow an actual response....  I'm impressed.

 

Allen already was imo.  The Bills were 5-2 and outside the Tenn & KC stumbles was great (300+ passing in 4 of 7 games).

 

I have said coaching and play calling all along and too with the lack of targets to Diggs.  

 

The offense to me has been okay, but no where near what I think they can/should be and that is why I made those threads/posts, when most thought they were humming.  And since then I think there has been a further decline that I blame again on coaching & play calling.   

 

Yes NE's defense is better, I just think the Bills Offense is much better and good Offense should win out.

 

 

 

Maybe, just maybe, the problems along the offensive line have something to do with the inconsistency in the offensive performance? I have said this in other posts and I will say it again: There have only been 4 games out of 11 where the top 4 linemen played together (and only 2 games in which the top 5 linemen played together). Here are some numbers comparing those 4 games with the other 7 games:

 

 Team                                Total Points     PPG    1st Downs PG    Tot YPG    Pass YPG    Rush YPG
4 Games w/top 4 Oline          154            38.5             25                   448         312.7            135.3

Other 7 Games                       172            24.5             21.8                355.7       247.1             108.6

 Allen                                    Comp    Att    Cmp%    Yds    Yds PG    TDs    TD%    INTs    INT%
4 Games w/top 4 Oline         91        131     69.5      1282   320.5      10      7.6         3        2.4
Other 7 Games                      183      279    65.6      1789    255.6      15      5.4        7        2.6

 

I'm not saying the problems along the offensive line this year are the only reasons for the offensive inconsistencies or, that having the top 4 together was the only reason the offense performed better in those games. However, if you watch the games, those in which the best Olinemen were playing, and in the positions they should be playing, the offense just looked better. Brown is back and Feliciano is now practicing. If Dawkins, Feliciano, Morse, Williams, and Brown can stay healthy and play together the rest of the year, then I think the offensive will play better. It is still going to be tough offensively because 4 of their last 6 games will be against top 8 defenses. 

[Livinginthepast]

Of course we want the super efficient Josh every game, but if we  can get back "find a way to get it done when things are not going well comeback Josh" I would gladly take that instead.  I think the lack of appearances of that Josh in our losses this season (Especially Pittsburgh and Jacksonville ) is what hurts. He almost pulled it off in Tennessee but that late slip on the Tennessee D's torpedoing of the line killed it.  If Allen can get back to that Josh who is calm under pressure and finds a way to win that is my best hope.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

He threw for 307 the week prior and 415 the week after.  There was some wind, but not terrible.  As for his shoulder I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.  

 

I remember them playing passive.  

 

No need to give me the "benefit of the doubt"

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/column-matt-hasselbeck-thinks-key-to-bills-rebound-is-josh-allens-healing-left-shoulder/article_3f8e57d0-2386-11eb-9a92-b3a82e42fa1f.html

 

 

[Sugar High JA17]

I got a feeling we will never have 2020 Josh again. if only we had no fans in the seats

[Nitro]

Allen forces the ball too often.  Just take what the defense gives

 

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, Nitro said:

Allen forces the ball too often.  Just take what the defense gives

 

And I'll defend him and say this has to do with frustration with this year's offensive schemes and play calling.

 

Yep I'm a homer....

[Nitro]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And I'll defend him and say this has to do with frustration with this year's offensive schemes and play calling.

 

Yep I'm a homer....

Not buying it.   

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Lame. You're ignoring perhaps the most defining Josh Allen stat through his first three years. 

 

He plays his best football in the last quarter of the season. We shall see if that trends continues, but you're being a lame ass if you refuse to look at where he was at through the 11 games last year and this year. 

 

Regardless, he's on pace to throw more TD's this year and be sacked fewer times. So he isn't worse in every category, as much as that would please you.

 

 

How can I be ignoring those games when I included every game he’s played? 

54 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

This is why it’s impossible for anyone to ever take you seriously around here.  You intentionally manipulate data to force an agenda all the time.  It’s literally like your thing.

 

THROUGH 11 GAMES…Josh is BETTER in more categories than he is worse compared to last years 11 games at this same time…INCLUDING TD%.
 

YOU KNOW THIS because several people have sent you the data.  Yet here you are still pushing this childish bulls**t response of comparing Josh through 11 games this year to Josh full season last year which is NOT how you compare because one of the data sets is INCOMPLETE.  

 

Literally why your posts like this are most often a waste of time.  Sad part is, if you would stop being such a trollish child about things like this all the time, you might be a decent poster.

 

PS:  You don’t have to manipulate and skew data to communicate a thought or opinion.  You should try it sometime.

Your solution to one set of data being incomplete is to make both incomplete? 
 

Incredible statistic work.

 

We are comparing Josh’s numbers here. Last season compared to this season so far. Sorry I’m not cherry picking his first 11 games last year, you’re welcome to do so but that’s stupid.

 

The only one “manipulating data” is you. I have posted the numbers from every game our QB has played in the regular season in the last two years. Sorry it doesn’t fit your agenda.

Edited December 1, 2021 by FireChans

[billsfan1959]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The only one “manipulating data” is you. I have posted the numbers from every game our QB has played in the regular season in the last two years. Sorry it doesn’t fit your agenda.

 

Ummm. you might want to look up the meaning of projection. It actually might have this as an example.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, Nitro said:

Not buying it.   

 

Talk to Brian Daboll.

Brian Daboll: "Good Fundamental Execution" (buffalobills.com)

About 7:40 in

Kim Jones asking question "if my information is correct, 7 interceptions and a fumble in the last 4.  Are there common denominators in that, can someone get into a bit of a slump where the same thing happens again and again?"

Daboll: "I think every turnover is different.  Trust me, all those 7 turnovers weren't on Josh, either.  QB get credited with interceptions, I understand that and they all understand that, but there's a lot that goes into ball security.  Whether it be the offensive line, protecting inside out, keeping the depth and the width of the pocket, running backs knowing who to block, blocking them properly, receivers running the right adjustment, QB making the right decisions.  Ball security is a team thing."

 

So, per coach Brian Daboll, he would apparently disagree with @Billsfan1972 that the Ints are caused by "frustration with this year's offensive schemes and play calling" and with you that "Allen forces the ball too often, just take what the defense gives".

 

He apparently assigns some of them on protection breakdowns, either of the OL or by the RBs.  He would put some of them on route-running mistakes by the WR.  And he would put some of them on Allen making poor decisions.  He doesn't think they are all one cause such as "frustration" or "forcing the ball".