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Draft night expectations; Trade up * Stand pat * Trade back


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1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

This year I will likely watch the Draft from my living room and wait and wait for the Bills to select.  (This drafting at #30 is a new phenomenon) After pick #10 I think anything can happen.  I don't see Beane selling the farm to move up into the top ten, but I could see him go after a "difference maker" in the teens and early twenties if he can swing a deal.   The thing I dread the most is finally getting to pick #30 after waiting three hours only to hear that Beane has traded out of the 1st round.   I hate to think about sitting there all night watching awkward man hugs with the Commish, listening to draftniks blather on about everyone else's draft picks, and not even see my Bills on the clock once.

 

We're nine days out from the Draft and it's time to call your shot.  Does Beane;

 

1.   Trade up

2.  Stand pat

3.  Trade back

 

My prediction is that Beane will trade up and grab a player between picks #20 - #23

 

 

One can only hope that those awkward man hugs will be eliminated in the C-19 enviornment....my guess if the guy Beane wants is hanging there in the early 20's I agree with you Inigo I think he pulls the trigger....

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I could see them trade up a few spots. Or trade down. The least likely thing for Beane to do is stay put. He is always wheelin' and dealin'.

Edited by MJS
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he's 100% gonna move up and or down, i'd bet up.  question is, when and where?  i think we have a solid shot at staying at 30, and only a move up a few spots as has been mentioned for not so early of pics would be on the table.

 

i expect a move up in the 2nd or 3rd round.  i could see us getting a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 3rd round players, because this roster is gonna be hard for rookies to make.

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I was gonna start a thread because my idea is so crazy I'll tuck it in here.

 

Trade with the LV Raiders, we give up 30, 3rd in 2022, 161, and maybe another late rounder or two like a 6th and 7th, but I'm going on the idea that the Raiders want back into the late 1st so they are willing to lose 50 or so points on the trade value chart.

 

We get 48,79,80, 121 so we get another 2nd, two 3rds and a 4th

 

so now we have

2nd) 48-  Tyson Campbell

2nd) 61-   Creed Humphrey

3rd) 79-   Alim McNeil

3rd) 80-  Roche/Perkins

3rd) 93-  Brevin Jordan

4th) 121-  BPA WR

5th) 174-   CB/S

 

etc.

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11 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

We're nine days out from the Draft and it's time to call your shot.  Does Beane;

 

1.   Trade up

2.  Stand pat

3.  Trade back

 

My prediction is that Beane will trade up and grab a player between picks #20 - #23

 

 

I’m pretty sure it will be one of the three.  :) 

 

It will all depend upon how the board falls. Beane will be Beane, and he’s not afraid to move around. 

 

.

Edited by Augie
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In the first? More likely back than forward. And if he goes forward it certainly won't be into the teens. That would essentially mean giving up a 2nd or a 3rd or a high pick from next year. He's not going to do that. I mean, if you go from #30 to #18, that's 280 points, which is equivalent to a later 2nd rounder. He's not going to give up that kind of bounty.

 

He has zero history of doing that kind of thing excepting the year when they'd spent the year before accumulating extra picks to go up and get a QB in the 1st.

 

Going up to 23, particularly 25, 27 .. yeah, I can imagine it. Much more likely down, though, IMO.

 

Later in the draft he's shown he's more willing to go up a bit. That's the best guess, I think.

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16 hours ago, 17islongenough said:

Could be trade up twice.   6th and 7th rounders will have a tough time making this team.   So they trade up in the 1st using a a 5th.  Then using their 6th and 7th trade back up into the 5th

I highly doubt you can trade up in the 1st using only a 5th.  Maybe 1 spot 

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8 hours ago, just1hugheser said:

I was gonna start a thread because my idea is so crazy I'll tuck it in here.

 

Trade with the LV Raiders, we give up 30, 3rd in 2022, 161, and maybe another late rounder or two like a 6th and 7th, but I'm going on the idea that the Raiders want back into the late 1st so they are willing to lose 50 or so points on the trade value chart.

 

We get 48,79,80, 121 so we get another 2nd, two 3rds and a 4th

 

so now we have

2nd) 48-  Tyson Campbell

2nd) 61-   Creed Humphrey

3rd) 79-   Alim McNeil

3rd) 80-  Roche/Perkins

3rd) 93-  Brevin Jordan

4th) 121-  BPA WR

5th) 174-   CB/S

 

etc.

 

 

That's not 50 points the Raiders would be giving up. More like 857 to 695, so on the order of 162 points. Next year's 3rd is valued as a 4th this year, and a mid-4th-rounder would be around 50 points.

 

Don't see the Bills giving up a next year's 3rd either. Not unless they then are confident they can turn one of those 3rds this year into a 3rd next year mid-draft.

Edited by Thurman#1
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17 hours ago, All I Need is Hope said:

I agree that if there's a run on edge rushers or CB's and there's one that Beane likes, he'll trade up.  Someone like Paye, Ojulari, Horn or Surtain get to 20 or so, I could see a trade up.

 

We don't need a lot of developmental players or depth, we need high end contributors this year.

 

 

We absolutely need a lot of developmental players and depth. Beane said they're doing this for contributions this year, more for the long-term than the short. Next year or two there'll be plenty of guys who they have to let go for cap reasons or age. If the replacements are on the roster, on rookie contracts and have a year in the system, that will be huge.

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Beane has never moved down in draft as Bills GM but may this year if his impact guys are gone.  Could then see him use acquired picks and our 2 5th rounders to move up and target players on Day 2 as he has done that before.  

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I am 100% against sacrificing capital to trade up...9 times out of 10 the player never lives up to the cost...and the FO has not proven they can be trusted, when picking defensive talent, on a consistent enough basis to take that chance...this team will need its picks for the future...

Edited by JaCrispy
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19 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

The thing I dread the most is finally getting to pick #30 after waiting three hours only to hear that Beane has traded out of the 1st round.   I hate to think about sitting there all night watching awkward man hugs with the Commish, listening to draftniks blather on about everyone else's draft picks, and not even see my Bills on the clock once.

 

DVR the draft.

 

I get all the logic on trading back.  Just the same I despise trading back.  Rather trade up

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We have the starting player roster points filled. This draft is funny.  There are a number  15-20 of sure first round players.  Then there are a lot of high second tier players at positions of interest to the Bills.  (Corner, edge and  O-line) that are about equal value..   The Bills should trade down from their first pick and trade up from their second pick  OR trade down from their first and trade up from their 3rd round pick.  They would like to get two picks in the top 50 and another in the top 75.

 

We are guessing what they intend on upgrading the running back position.  The Bills run the ball 38% of the time(21st most in the nlf) and getting a home run hitter there who can also catch passes, would be the biggest single player improvement in the team.  If that is the case in their heads, then stand pat at #30, if two RB are taken ahead of our pick.

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5 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I highly doubt you can trade up in the 1st using only a 5th.  Maybe 1 spot 

 

The Saints at #28 may be interested in Bills 1st 5th rounder and 6th.  It's one of the few UP moves I can see Beane doing if one of his guys are there.

Saints are rebuilding and don't have a 5th rounder.

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6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's not 50 points the Raiders would be giving up. More like 857 to 695, so on the order of 162 points. Next year's 3rd is valued as a 4th this year, and a mid-4th-rounder would be around 50 points.

 

Don't see the Bills giving up a next year's 3rd either. Not unless they then are confident they can turn one of those 3rds this year into a 3rd next year mid-draft.

 

yea i know I was just messing about, I like the idea of fleecing a team that wants to get back into the first and i wanted their 3rd rounders

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