Analysis of Emmanual Sanders Film (Athletic, Joe B)

[Patrick Duffy]

10 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Hmm...  About when did our deep ball receiver get injured???

True, but Diggs could also be considered a deep threat too. In any event Josh improved on the deep ball some. But it's clear it needs some improvement still. He has improved in everything else so I suspect that part will also continue to get better.

Edited April 1, 2021 by Patrick_Duffy

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

The games are the evidence.... If you don't believe me just go back and watch them yourself.... since the Raider game, his deep ball was a struggle throughout the middle of the season.

 

 

Yup, more crap. Thought so.

 

I did watch the games. So did all of us. We disagree with your unsupported opinion.

 

In other words, you have no evidence whatsoever. Just an unsupported minority opinion that you think is a fact. I don't think anyone is arguing he was terrific with the deeper balls last year, but many think he showed improvement and was good at it.

 

11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I can tell you just off the top of my head he missed a deep ball against Patriots(week 8), and then two against the Seahawks(one to Brown, one to Diggs) in an otherwise incredible game from him. In fact, those two deep ball passes(traveled at least over 40 yards) were probably his only two missed throws/overthrows of the game..... I recall the commentator say after the overthrow to Diggs that it was the one part of his game that needs a little more work or something to that effect.

It’s no secret his deep throws, while better from basically an overthrow every time he threw them in 2019, are still inconsistent at best. 

 

 

Doesn’t seem to matter how big Russell Wilson’s receivers are, regardless of Metcalf.....his deep pass touch and timing is the best of the best.

 

 

I see.

 

So, you're saying that Russell Wilson's percentage of 30 - 40 yard passes, and his percentage of 40 - 50 yard passes, being "the best of the best," would be way better than Josh's last year.

 

Right, Scott? That's what you're saying, right?

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Thurman#1

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You and Badol are asking for stats from others and then producing none yourself.

 

 

 

 

Wrong.......I did not ask for stats.......Doc made a statistical declaration.........that Allen was "8th in the NFL".

 

He made up a stat to shout down a discussion..........much the same as you made up this narrative.

 

I have a stat for you...........you have become the #1 most consistently wrong poster on this site.

 

There really is no reason to be a truther about areas where the team or it's players can improve.   

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

Hmm...  About when did our deep ball receiver get injured???

 

Well then shouldn't they be trying to fill that position?

 

I get it, you feel harmed by my sarcasm so you are amongst a group who always like to jump into discussions just to be contrary.........I'm flattered, really..........but the entire point of this branch of the discussion is whether they need a deep threat option.

 

So thanks for your support, I guess.

 

 

Edited April 1, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[SWATeam]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Well then shouldn't they be trying to fill that position?

 

Good thing it's April and not September.

 

They do need some deep speed and I assume it will be addressed.   

[DCofNC]

11 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

I'm glad you're open to Davis growing into a "bigger" role as a physical/jump ball receiver. He flashed last season. Was a great 9-route guy in college. Shame he was limited by injury down the stretch for the Bills. 

 

We should also be open to Hodgins earning time on the field in 2021. He is a rangy dude (tall with long arms) with elite hands (according to scouting reports) and I'd argue sneaky athleticism (really solid agility and explosion numbers once you get past his 40 time). His camp last year was every bit as eye-opening as Davis's until he got hurt. He's the son of a long time NFL FB. He can hopefully play. 

 

Hodgins length could work for him, if he can get off the line.

 

whst drives me CRAZY watching Davis, he will jump for balls he doesn’t need to, it’s a terrible habit.  Once you are off the ground you can’t do anything to stop a defender from just running you right off the field.  It would be one thing if he were high pointing, he absolutely is not, he is jumping too early and giving up leverage, he has to fix it.  He’s got some talent, enough so that I believe he could be the actual #2 of the team, but those little things are what separates the cuts from the good players and good from the greats.

[billsfan89]

I think they really want to use him and his versatility as a WR4. He takes pressure of off Davis who we can see if he is worthy of being a true WR2. Beasley and Sanders I hope both have one more year left in the tank and with Diggs as the WR1 and Davis and Mac as the younger options I think you see an elite WR corps for one more season. Hopefully Davis really does emerge as a solid WR2. That sets the WR corps up longer term.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Dude, there are numerous ways to rewatch games. If you don't believe me go rewatch them for yourself. 

 

I gave you examples where Allen struggled to throw the ball deep. Go rewatch them for yourself instead of attacking me. 

 

 

Seriously? That's your argument? That Allen had examples of games where he struggled to throw the ball deep? That's supposed to be convincing? Good lord, dude, that's pitiful. I mean, surely even you know that I could go to any QB in the league and find examples of games where they struggled to throw the ball deep. Any QB who has thrown any amount of deep balls. I've heard stupider arguments, but not many.

 

So, again ...I gave you the chance to say that you believed what you were saying, and not even you were willing to make your own argument. So I'll give you one more chance ...

 

So, you're saying that Russell Wilson's percentage of 30 - 40 yard passes, and his percentage of 40 - 50 yard passes, being "the best of the best," would be way better than Josh's last year.

 

Right, Scott? That's what you're saying, right?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Sanders is a capable veteran and the contract makes sense. 

 

He's going to be a 600-900 yard kind of WR here. 

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Wrong.......I did not ask for stats.......Doc made a statistical declaration.........that Allen was "8th in the NFL".

 

He made up a stat to shout down a discussion..........much the same as you made up this narrative.

 

I have a stat for you...........you have become the #1 most consistently wrong poster on this site.

 

There really is no reason to be a truther about areas where the team or it's players can improve.   

 

 

 

 

I really appreciate your telling me that I've "become the #1 most consistently wrong poster on this site." It tells me I'm doing things right. Whenever I doubt myself, I'll remember you said this and realize I'm on the right track.

 

Being told I'm consistently wrong ... by you ... is like being told by the Kardashians that you're not spending nearly enough time on social media, doing self-promotion or showing off your naked butt and your marital arguments in the media. You hear that from the K's and you know you're oriented well.

 

 And who's the truther, the guy who says "we all saw him overthrow or not put enough air under a significant amount of his deeper throws last year ... He just made too many uncompetitive/uncatchable throws for someone with his ability," isn't he?

 

Thing is, there's no evidence of that. In fact, the evidence says just the opposite, that deep throws are difficult, particularly the 30 yards and longer throws you're talking about, that nobody throws them well consistently, but that Allen is right up there this year.

 

 

 

You said, "He has so much room for growth in that area and it could alter the trajectory of his career if he gains the kind of confidence that guys like Russell Wilson and Brady have in their ability to throw accurately over the top of defenses."

 

So like Scott, you're sure that Josh just doesn't throw anywhere near as well as Russell Wilson over 30 yards ... right?

 

That's a fact, you feel, right?

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup, more crap. Thought so.

 

I did watch the games. So did all of us. We disagree with your unsupported opinion.

 

In other words, you have no evidence whatsoever. Just an unsupported minority opinion that you think is a fact. I don't think anyone is arguing he was terrific with the deeper balls last year, but many think he showed improvement and was good at it.

 

 

 

I see.

 

So, you're saying that Russell Wilson's percentage of 30 - 40 yard passes, and his percentage of 40 - 50 yard passes, being "the best of the best," would be way better than Josh's last year.

 

Right, Scott? That's what you're saying, right?

 

 

 

Thurman, during the 2019 season, I remember John Murphy on the radio (WGR550) constantly saying he thought the deep ball would come back into play for the offense, it never did. John Brown was more of an intermediate WR, then a true burner. 

 

Right from the jump in 2019, the Bills made a conscious effort to shorten routes and make it easier for Allen to complete passes. We saw it right away in the Jets and Giants games, through Dallas. As stated, Allen is great when he can load up and throw darts at 20 yards. 

 

But we haven't seen a consistent Robert Foster 20.0 ypc kind of element in this offense since 2018. Allen did have the 50+ yarder to Brown in the first Dolphins game. 

 

Beasley is death by 1000 cuts, and Diggs give you a deeper average depth of target. Davis has a knack for end zone, but I'm not sure he is a consistent deep threat yet. 

 

It's not an attack on Allen though.    

 

The two best throws from Allen in 2020 that I saw was that dagger route against the 49ers to Gabe Davis over the top of Fred Warner, and that throw in the Playoff game against the Colts to Diggs over the middle, and maybe all those toe tapping throws to Davis. 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Thurman#1]

35 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Thurman, during the 2019 season, I remember John Murphy on the radio (WGR550) constantly saying he thought the deep ball would come back into play for the offense, it never did. John Brown was more of an intermediate WR, then a true burner. 

 

Right from the jump in 2019, the Bills made a conscious effort to shorten routes and make it easier for Allen to complete passes. We saw it right away in the Jets and Giants games, through Dallas. As stated, Allen is great when he can load up and throw darts at 20 yards. 

 

But we haven't seen a consistent Robert Foster 20.0 ypc kind of element in this offense since 2018. Allen did have the 50+ yarder to Brown in the first Dolphins game. 

 

Beasley is death by 1000 cuts, and Diggs give you a deeper average depth of target. Davis has a knack for end zone, but I'm not sure he is a consistent deep threat yet. 

 

It's not an attack on Allen though.    

 

 

 

During the 2019 season, that was correct. Allen overthrew guys a bunch of times. They simply didn't have the ability to connect long.

 

Last year was very different, though. So different that teams after the first few games quickly decided the way to defend Allen and this offense was to use two high safeties and make it a ton more difficult to throw it long. They defended Allen the way they've traditionally defended Brady ... try to take away the longer balls and force him to go down the field using the short game. Make him dink and dunk. That's how they attacked us too.

 

The reason they did that is because Allen came out on fire early in the year with long balls. And even with the consistent two-deep making it much tougher to get those long balls, he still got them with reasonable frequency, though he wasn't torching Ds as easily as he had before the defensive change.

Edited April 1, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

You’re right.  I had a brain fart.  I meant slot.  No idea why I mixed up Z and slot. 

 

 

Ah, I see.

 

I wasn't quite sure what you meant.

 

I'm excited to see how many ways they can use him.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

During the 2019 season, that was correct. Allen overthrew guys a bunch of times. They simply didn't have the ability to connect long.

 

Last year was very different, though. So different that teams after the first few games quickly decided the way to defend Allen and this offense was to use two high safeties and make it a ton more difficult to throw it long. They defended Allen the way they've traditionally defended Brady ... try to take away the longer balls and force him to go down the field using the short game. Make him dink and dunk. That's how they attacked us too.

 

The reason they did that is because Allen came out on fire early in the year with long balls. And even with the consistent two-deep making it much tougher to get those long balls, he still got them with reasonable frequency, though he wasn't torching Ds as easily as he had before the defensive change.

 

 

 

Last year was different.......he improved greatly in general.........particularly in throws in the 21-30 yard range where he ranked #1 in completion % after finishing dead last in that category in 2019.

 

And yet despite that and being the 4th most accurate overall passer.........per NFL Next Gen Stats he was only the 14th ranked in deep ball accuracy in 2020.

 

https://www.facebook.com/nflnetwork/videos/211552707232333/?t=8

 

The link above was from prior to the Colts game.    The Colts defense was very poor against the deep ball in 2020 and the storyline was predicting that Allen would not be able to take advantage of that because his deep passing #'s were much worse than the Colts allowed ON AVERAGE thru the season.

 

They were right......he couldn't connect over the top that day.   He ended up putting up a lot of crooked numbers overall and they eeked out a win........ but it was a struggle and he took a beating. 

 

Days like THAT are why he needs to be able to execute the deep ball like someone with both the strongest arm in the league and high level short-intermediate accuracy should.    

 

He may not get injured taking all of those extra hits but it will take its toll.  

 

I expect deep ball touch/timing/accuracy to be the big gain this offseason...........hopefully they have the personnel to maximize his improvement.

 

So again,  you are wrong in thinking it's not an area where he needs much improvement.

 

 

Edited April 1, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

 

Don't forget Duke

 

Wouldn't you say Kumerow appears to have moved ahead of Duke on the depth chart?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 3/31/2021 at 11:24 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm a fan of Sanders but not a fan of the "same-ness" of their WR corps.

 

We all know that Allen isn't yet adept at deep accuracy/touch/timing but they had a greater need for a legit deep threat with either an extra gear to get an overthrown ball or a huge catch radius.......or preferably both.     That would complement the existing talent so much better, IMO.    More room for RAC and less contested throws underneath.   Probably create more running room for the backs.

 

 

Allen was statisticallly the most accurate on deep throws in all of the NFL..

 

[Sundancer]

On 4/1/2021 at 6:38 AM, JMF2006 said:

 

Don't forget Duke

 

Do we have advance stats on posts mentioning Duke vs catches? 

[LabattBlue]

Hap...my OCD is going to explode if you don’t fix the spelling of his name in the title. 😂

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

Allen was statisticallly the most accurate on deep throws in all of the NFL..

 

 

 

No, he was not.

 

@Doc already tried to make up a stat like that. 

 

Per NFL's own Next Gen stats Josh Allen was 14th in deep ball accuracy with a 40.6 completion %.

 

I provided a link a few posts ago about a segment NFL Network produced prior to the Colts game that showed the Colts defense allowed 50% of deep balls to be completed on them during the season but that Allen was not good on the deep ball.

 

He is middling at it.........and that is despite the fact that he can throw a deep ball on a line so *some* of those throws are still in his wheelhouse.

 

But the further you get downfield the easier that flat throws become to defend.

 

When it comes to putting air under the ball and dropping it into a bucket like Brady and Wilson and Rodgers are so good at........there has been no telling where the ball will land when Allen lofts it over the defense.   

 

It's the next logical step in his progression but he was still scattershot on such throws last year and he declined to attempt some golden opportunities as well because of his inefficiency in that regard.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

Allen was statisticallly the most accurate on deep throws in all of the NFL..

 

 

I'm not doubting you, but I'm looking for data on completion % on throws of various distances (NFL.com is just >20 yds).

 

Can you point me at a source of this info?

 

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Per NFL's own Next Gen stats Josh Allen was 14th in deep ball accuracy with a 40.6 completion %.

 

Can you point me at this?  The stat I found, only gives data on the total yards gained on a play.  It doesn't differentiate between air yards and YAC.

Thanks.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Can you point me at this?  The stat I found, only gives data on the total yards gained on a play.  It doesn't differentiate between air yards and YAC.

Thanks.

 

 

Here it is again:

 

https://www.facebook.com/nflnetwork/videos/211552707232333/?t=8

 

It's a 26 second video.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Here it is again:

 

https://www.facebook.com/nflnetwork/videos/211552707232333/?t=8

 

It's a 26 second video.

 

I find this difficult to interpret.  It mentions NextGenStats, which defines a completed pass of >20 yds as a deep ball.  It's not clear to me whether NextGenStats are using air yards, or total yards for these passes (I hope the former).

 

However, in a bit of digging, I found "The 2020-2021 Deep Ball Project" which ranks every QB by deep ball accuracy (they are making judgements as to whether a ball was on target and catchable, but not caught).

 

Part 1 explains their methodology.  They use air yards and break down passes by different distance ranges.  They calculate both completion % and accuracy %.

https://brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/

Allen's stats are found in Part 3 where he ranks 7 out of 32 out of accuracy %, an improvement from 2019-2020 where he ranked 29th out of 32. 

https://brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-3-3/

One can also go through and look at the specific completion percentage for each distance range, as well as the accuracy percentage for each distance range and rank there.

 

Enjoy.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

43 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I find this difficult to interpret.  It mentions NextGenStats, which defines a completed pass of >20 yds as a deep ball.  It's not clear to me whether NextGenStats are using air yards, or total yards for these passes (I hope the former).

 

However, in a bit of digging, I found "The 2020-2021 Deep Ball Project" which ranks every QB by deep ball accuracy (they are making judgements as to whether a ball was on target and catchable, but not caught).

 

Part 1 explains their methodology.  They use air yards and break down passes by different distance ranges.  They calculate both completion % and accuracy %.

https://brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/

Allen's stats are found in Part 3 where he ranks 7 out of 32 out of accuracy %, an improvement from 2019-2020 where he ranked 29th out of 32. 

https://brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-3-3/

One can also go through and look at the specific completion percentage for each distance range, as well as the accuracy percentage for each distance range and rank there.

 

Enjoy.

 

 

 

Yeah again, I don't consider a 21-25 yard pass a deep throw for Josh Allen.........as I said he's the best in the league in that range because he can throw a 25 yard pass on a rope.

 

In subsequent yardage subsets he ranks:

 

26-30 20th

31-35 11th

36-40 5th( the smallest sample size)

41 and over 20th.

 

So on throws of 26 yards and over he had a 32% completion %.    

 

By contrast Aaron Rodgers had a 47% completion % on those throws.

 

Russell Wilson was at 41%.

 

Allen is no longer horrible at the deep ball.....that was never in question....... but he has a lot of room to improve..........those numbers pass the eye test.

 

The question is are the Bills helping Allen by trying to keep the WR corps so limited to guys who do their best work in the short to intermediate range where Allen has had great command of the ball.............or should they complement the group with a talent that can help him be better at the deeper throws?    

[Thurman#1]

On 4/2/2021 at 4:34 AM, ScottLaw said:

My argument is he’s still very inconsistent in throwing it.... It’s still the one major weak point in his game. As I said he started off the season on fire with it and faded throughout the middle of the season while not giving his receivers a chance. 

https://news.timekills.info/19-october-2020-chiefs-at-bills/

 

5:00. Underthrows Brown on a 45 yard pass after a flea flicker. 
 

5:41 Misses an open McKenzie for a TD on a 40 yard pass. 
 

10:38. Just misses Diggs on a 50 yard TD throw. This was actually a good throw. Diggs dropped it.
 

https://news.timekills.info/01-november-2020-patriots-at-bills/?_ga=2.198071917.313063082.1617071494-1883444633.1616379381
8:52. Allen overthrows a 50 yard pass to Davis along the left sidelines by a good 3-4 yards.(And it was OOB) 

 

https://news.timekills.info/08-november-2020-seahawks-at-bills/?_ga=2.156078457.313063082.1617071494-1883444633.1616379381

 

9:25 Allen throws a 35-40 yard pass to Brown along the left sidelines that is overthrow and OOB. Completely uncatchable. 
 

35:35 Allen throws a 45-50 yard pass to Diggs near the left side of the field that is slightly overthrown. Diggs had his man beat. At which point the commentator says it’s one part of Allens game he can improve upon. 
 

https://news.timekills.info/15-november-2020-bills-at-cardinals/?_ga=2.156210425.313063082.1617071494-1883444633.1616379381
 

31:52 Allen overthrows John Brown on the right sideline. Coverage was good but that ball was overthrown and away from Brown.

 

These are just a few examples. He was pretty hit or miss after starting the season on fire with the deep balls.

 

 

 

Yes of course he is inconsistent in throwing the long ball. Everyone in NFL history is. It's extremely difficult to do well.

 

The point isn't whether he's inconsistent. It's whether he's more inconsistent than others. He's not.

 

You can put together a look at any NFL QB who has thrown long and put together a bad long throws highlight reel. Hell you can put together a bad shor throws highlight reel on any QB. Do you seriously actually not know this? You can do the same with Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady, anyone.

 

Absolutely anyone.

 

[Thurman#1]

BIG QUIZ:  Match the QBs to his Stats

Here are four QBs, and four sets of stats for 2020

showing success in passes over 30 air yards. 

 

The four QBs are:

 

Josh Allen

Aaron Rodgers

Russell Wilson

Patrick Mahomes

 

The quiz is this. Which of those four is #1, which is #2, which is #3, and which is #4.

 

Quarterback #1: 

30 - 40 yards: 6/16, 37.5%, 1 TD

40 - 50 yards: 5/12, 41.6%, 2 TDs

50+ yards: 1/4, 25%, 1 TD

 

Quarterback #2:

30 - 40 yards: 6/24, 25%, 4 TDs

40 - 50 yards: 3/7, 42.8%, 3 TDs, 

50+ yards: none

 

Quarterback #3:

30 - 40 yards: 6/20, 30%, 2 TDs, 1 INT

40 - 50 yards: 3/9, 33.3%, 1 TD

50+ yards: 0/1

 

Quarterback #4:

30 - 40 yards: 9/26, 34.6%, 4 TDs, 2 INTs

40 - 50 yards: 4/13, 30.7% 2 TDs

50+ yards: 2/2, 100% 2 TDs

 

There's just not a lot of difference there, is there? Particularly when there are so few attempts, the differences are either statistically insignificant or very slight. Completions of over 30 yards are really hard to get. Which is really why none of them threw very many. 

 

Feel free to guess!! You can even do the research.

 

I used https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/ 

 

 

They have charts for each game. I went through and added all the games up for those four QBs. They had all the games for Rodgers, but missed one game each for all of the other three. For Allen, I was curious enough that I went to the game they missed and referring to a play-by-play checked every long pass, complete and incomplete to check the air yards. 

 

So I have all 16 games for Allen and Rodgers. I didn't want to bother with Mahomes and Wilson. Please feel free if you have an hour or so, to check the one missing game for each of those two guys.

 

 

Edited April 3, 2021 by Thurman#1

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes of course he is inconsistent in throwing the long ball. Everyone in NFL history is. It's extremely difficult to do well.

 

The point isn't whether he's inconsistent. It's whether he's more inconsistent than others. He's not.

 

You can put together a look at any NFL QB who has thrown long and put together a bad long throws highlight reel. Hell you can put together a bad shor throws highlight reel on any QB. Do you seriously actually not know this? You can do the same with Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady, anyone.

 

Absolutely anyone.

 

 

 

That's just jibberish.

 

As I noted above........the accuracy difference between Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen on throws over 25 yards in 2020 was 14%(47% versus 33%)..............while the difference on all throws total was just 1% (70% v 69%).

 

One guy is great at the deep ball........the other is middle of the pack.

 

There isn't a physical reason why there should be such a discrepancy between the two QB's on deep throws.

 

It's not random and not just a case of "everyone is inconsistent"..............that's just you trying to shout down a discussion with an unsupported observation.

 

As I've said about your takes........

 

 

[Da webster guy]

A lot of smart football minds in Buffalo felt Sanders was worth over $2M more per year than John Brown, who has three 1000 yard receiving seasons and had a ton of chemistry with Josh and the team in general.

 

It seems crazy to me because Smoke was so sure-handed and always seemed open, even doubled as our #1 WR two years ago, but I trust the talent e v a l guys we have so I'm on board with Sanders.

[Thurman#1]

Nobody has guessed yet. Which one of the four QBs above is Allen? Which is Russ Wilson? Which is Rodgers and which is Mahomes?

 

Compare their Completion percentages at similar distances. Very very similar. So again:

 

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

BIG QUIZ:  Match the QBs to his Stats

Here are four QBs, and four sets of stats for 2020

showing success in passes over 30 air yards. 

 

The four QBs are:

 

Josh Allen

Aaron Rodgers

Russell Wilson

Patrick Mahomes

 

The quiz is this. Which of those four is #1, which is #2, which is #3, and which is #4.

 

Quarterback #1: 

30 - 40 yards: 6/16, 37.5%, 1 TD

40 - 50 yards: 5/12, 41.6%, 2 TDs

50+ yards: 1/4, 25%, 1 TD

 

Quarterback #2:

30 - 40 yards: 6/24, 25%, 4 TDs

40 - 50 yards: 3/7, 42.8%, 3 TDs, 

50+ yards: none

 

Quarterback #3:

30 - 40 yards: 6/20, 30%, 2 TDs, 1 INT

40 - 50 yards: 3/9, 33.3%, 1 TD

50+ yards: 0/1

 

Quarterback #4:

30 - 40 yards: 9/26, 34.6%, 4 TDs, 2 INTs

40 - 50 yards: 4/13, 30.7% 2 TDs

50+ yards: 2/2, 100% 2 TDs

 

There's just not a lot of difference there, is there? Particularly when there are so few attempts, the differences are either statistically insignificant or very slight. Completions of over 30 yards are really hard to get. Which is really why none of them threw very many. 

 

Feel free to guess!! You can even do the research.

 

I used https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/ 

 

 

They have charts for each game. I went through and added all the games up for those four QBs. They had all the games for Rodgers, but missed one game each for all of the other three. For Allen, I was curious enough that I went to the game they missed and referring to a play-by-play checked every long pass, complete and incomplete to check the air yards. 

 

So I have all 16 games for Allen and Rodgers. I didn't want to bother with Mahomes and Wilson. Please feel free if you have an hour or so, to check the one missing game for each of those two guys.

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That's just jibberish.

 

As I noted above........the accuracy difference between Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen on throws over 25 yards in 2020 was 14%(47% versus 33%)..............while the difference on all throws total was just 1% (70% v 69%).

 

One guy is great at the deep ball........the other is middle of the pack.

 

There isn't a physical reason why there should be such a discrepancy between the two QB's on deep throws.

 

It's not random and not just a case of "everyone is inconsistent"..............that's just you trying to shout down a discussion with an unsupported observation.

 

As I've said about your takes........

 

 

 

 

 

It's gibberish? Oh, hey, I will be glad to explain it to you. I thought it didn't really require explanation, but I should have known that some might require a bit of help. Sorry about that.

 

So, I'll use the stats for the first guy as an example for you.

 

Quarterback #1: 

30 - 40 yards: 6/16, 37.5%, 1 TD

40 - 50 yards: 5/12, 41.6%, 2 TDs

50+ yards: 1/4, 25%, 1 TD

 

See where it says, 30 - 40 yards? That means that it is talking only about passes that went from 30 - 40 air yards. Sorry for making that too confusing for you. Now, the next thing is 6/16. This is a common way to refer to two different pass statistics. The first number, the 6 is how many passes were completed. The second number is how many passes were attempted. See how it works? That quarterback, attempted 16 passes of between 30 and 40 air yards, and completed 6 of them. Are you following? Now this next part is a bit complex. Stay with me. If you divide the first number by the second number, you can actually get an answer to that problem. So for example, 6 divided by 16 equals 37.5%, when you cut it down to one decimal place. See? And then, "TD" is a common football abbreviation for a six-point play, called a "Touchdown." And I sometimes used another abbreviation, "INT," which is another common football abbreviation, for an "Interception." 

 

I hope that clears things up for you.

 

 

......

 

Now, as for your several poor uses of statistics above, you say that "accuracy difference between Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen on throws over 25 yards in 2020 was 14%(47% versus 33%)..............while the difference on all throws total was just 1% (70% v 69%)." Sorry, man, that can't reasonably be called an "accuracy difference."

 

A completion percentage difference, yes. But it shows a ton more about how numbers and statistics work, and your poor use of them, than it does about anyone's accuracy.

 

You are using statistics poorly in many ways here. First is your assumption that because you have a percentage that comparing it with any old other percentage allows you to draw the assumption the comparison would appear to show.

 

For example, say a backup QB comes in and plays a few snaps and throws one pass between 30 and 40 yards, it's a 30 yard TD. And that's his only throw of 30 - 40 yards for the season. Who's number one in your category based on percentages? That guy is. He's a 100% passer between 30 and 40 yards. He's number one, baby. According to your numbers that guy's more accurate than Josh, Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. 

 

Now, say the same guy in his sixteen attempts throws two passes between 40 and 50 yards, one complete for 42 yards, the other out of bounds. Who's more accurate on long balls, him or Josh Allen, Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. Well, your buttheaded system puts him first on the list. 50% from 40 - 50 yards. Clearly this guy is more accurate than those four, according to your system.

 

Now, let's give that imaginary guy a name, say ... oh, Matt Barkley. Oh, wow, what a coincidence, the real Matt actually did do just what I said. 1 for 1 and a touchdown between 30 and 40 yards and 1 for 2 between 40 and 50 yards.  

 

Just check the charts on nextgenstats.nfl.com

 

Now, perhaps someone like you might say that we have conclusive proof that Barkley is better at those distances or you could look at the wildly wildly obvious, which is that he wouldn't have continued doing that at that rate if he'd thrown a lot of attempts at those distances. Duh. But your slowcoach of a system puts Barkley (and probably many others ahead of the big four there. It's pure dumb-osity.

 

Then your other, shall we say ... sub-optimal, way of manipulating numbers. There is no reasonable way to add together separate categories as you're doing with this quote:  "the accuracy difference between Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen on throws over 25 yards in 2020 was 14%(47% versus 33%)..............while the difference on all throws total was just 1% (70% v 69%)." That's just stupid. 

 

For example, you have two different QBs, QB A and QB B. QB A completes 

 

Wrong. In some cases this would be correct, but in plenty of others it's flat out dunderheaded. How? Between 30 and 40 yards, QB Smith throws 6 for 10, 60%, and QB Jones throws 15 for 30, 50%. Between 40 and 50 yards, QB Smith throws 10 for 30, 33.3%, and QB Jones throws 3 for 10, 30%. 

 

Anyone with half a brain can see that Smith was better at both distances and based on numbers alone is clearly the better QB. 

 

Anyone except, that is, your feather-brained method. Just add up the numbers and you get Smith throwing 16 for 40, which is 40%, and Jones throwing 18 for 40, 45%. So, at both levels, the shorter and longer, Smith threw better. But when someone half-wittedly adds up all the completions and attempts, Smith has a higher percentage above 30 yards. Why? Because he threw far more shorter passes, which have a higher chance of being completed. Jones was obviously better, but threw more long passes and therefore ended up with a lower percentage total.

 

The idea of adding up several specific categories and thinking you're getting more meaning from the total ... well, it's ludicrous.

 

What you do is ... you look at the raw numbers. And you compare each category for length of throw to how well the other QBs did at that same distance. DUH!!!

 

And you also look at the raw numbers to throw out statistically insignificant differences. If one QB at a certain distance throws 100 passes and completes 50% and another QB throws 90 passes and completes 40%, that's statistically significant. But if one guy at a certain difference went 3 for 7 and another guy went 4 for 7, that's absolutely not statisitically significant.

 

You're making all of these ridiculous mistakes because you're not looking at the raw numbers.

 

You should. Without them you're throwing darts in the dark.

 

So again, for you and everyone else, which of the four QBs in my challenge above is Josh Allen, which Mahomes, which Russell Wilson and which Aaron Rodgers. And yeah, what you see when you look is that these four were very very similar in their numbers in terms of long balls.

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 4/2/2021 at 3:29 AM, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Thurman, during the 2019 season, I remember John Murphy on the radio (WGR550) constantly saying he thought the deep ball would come back into play for the offense, it never did. John Brown was more of an intermediate WR, then a true burner. 

 

Right from the jump in 2019, the Bills made a conscious effort to shorten routes and make it easier for Allen to complete passes. We saw it right away in the Jets and Giants games, through Dallas. As stated, Allen is great when he can load up and throw darts at 20 yards. 

 

But we haven't seen a consistent Robert Foster 20.0 ypc kind of element in this offense since 2018. Allen did have the 50+ yarder to Brown in the first Dolphins game. 

 

Beasley is death by 1000 cuts, and Diggs give you a deeper average depth of target. Davis has a knack for end zone, but I'm not sure he is a consistent deep threat yet. 

 

It's not an attack on Allen though.    

 

The two best throws from Allen in 2020 that I saw was that dagger route against the 49ers to Gabe Davis over the top of Fred Warner, and that throw in the Playoff game against the Colts to Diggs over the middle, and maybe all those toe tapping throws to Davis. 

 

 

Just wanted to add a bit to my previous response.

 

In Week 1, Allen threw zero balls with over 30 air yards.

 

In Week 2, he was 1/1 at 30 - 40 and 1/1 with a TD at 40 - 50.

 

In Week 3, he was 1/2 from 30 - 40 with an INT, and 0/1 from 40 - 50.

 

In Week 4, he didn't attempt one from 30 - 40, but was 1/1 from 40 - 50.

 

In Week 5, he was 1/2 with a TD from 30 - 40 and didn't have a longer attempt. 

 

That means he was 3/4 from 30 - 40 with an INT and a TD, he was and 2/3 with a TD at 40 - 50.

 

These are small numbers but look how they were both overall excellent and at the same time, consistently good from week to week.

 

And after that teams went to the two-deep and it got tougher. But he still did well, which the comparisons to the best long-ball QBs in the league in my quiz shows very clearly.

Edited April 3, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

So, nobody has answered, and that seems reasonable. The four sets of numbers aren't that far apart. There's nothing useful to help anyone guess. So I'll give the answers now. 

 

Rodgers is #1

Mahomes is #2

Allen is #3 and 

Wilson is #4

 

Note: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/

 

 

So this is what it looks like together:

 

 

Aaron Rodgers 2020: 

30 - 40 yards: 6/16, 37.5%, 1 TD

40 - 50 yards: 5/12, 41.6%, 2 TDs

50+ yards: 1/4, 25%, 1 TD

 

Patrick Mahomes 2020:

30 - 40 yards: 6/24, 25%, 4 TDs

40 - 50 yards: 3/7, 42.8%, 3 TDs, 

50+ yards: none

 

Josh Allen 2020:

30 - 40 yards: 6/20, 30%, 2 TDs, 1 INT

40 - 50 yards: 3/9, 33.3%, 1 TD

50+ yards: 0/1

 

Russell Wilson:

30 - 40 yards: 9/26, 34.6%, 4 TDs, 2 INTs

40 - 50 yards: 4/13, 30.7% 2 TDs

50+ yards: 2/2, 100% 2 TDs

 

They aren't all that far apart.

 

 

 

I'm on vacation and will take the next few days off. The wife is keeping me busy with para-sailing, sand dune sledding, museums, hot spring baths and great food, most recently Korean barbecue tonight. And my sand sprints and sand dune climb repeats are beating me up something wonderful.

 

I'll be back Tuesday or Wednesday depending how long it takes me to catch up with my work.

Edited April 3, 2021 by Thurman#1

[stinky finger]

On 4/1/2021 at 2:29 PM, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Thurman, during the 2019 season, I remember John Murphy on the radio (WGR550) constantly saying he thought the deep ball would come back into play for the offense, it never did. John Brown was more of an intermediate WR, then a true burner. 

 

Right from the jump in 2019, the Bills made a conscious effort to shorten routes and make it easier for Allen to complete passes. We saw it right away in the Jets and Giants games, through Dallas. As stated, Allen is great when he can load up and throw darts at 20 yards. 

 

But we haven't seen a consistent Robert Foster 20.0 ypc kind of element in this offense since 2018. Allen did have the 50+ yarder to Brown in the first Dolphins game. 

 

Beasley is death by 1000 cuts, and Diggs give you a deeper average depth of target. Davis has a knack for end zone, but I'm not sure he is a consistent deep threat yet. 

 

It's not an attack on Allen though.    

 

The two best throws from Allen in 2020 that I saw was that dagger route against the 49ers to Gabe Davis over the top of Fred Warner, and that throw in the Playoff game against the Colts to Diggs over the middle, and maybe all those toe tapping throws to Davis. 

 

Two great throws for sure.

 

Also loved the hose to Kumerow in the Broncos game. 

On 4/1/2021 at 6:30 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Wouldn't you say Kumerow appears to have moved ahead of Duke on the depth chart?

 

I would 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

So, nobody has answered, and that seems reasonable. The four sets of numbers aren't that far apart. There's nothing useful to help anyone guess. So I'll give the answers now. 

 

Rodgers is #1

Mahomes is #2

Allen is #3 and 

Wilson is #4

 

Note: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/

 

 

So this is what it looks like together:

 

 

Aaron Rodgers 2020: 

30 - 40 yards: 6/16, 37.5%, 1 TD

40 - 50 yards: 5/12, 41.6%, 2 TDs

50+ yards: 1/4, 25%, 1 TD

 

Patrick Mahomes 2020:

30 - 40 yards: 6/24, 25%, 4 TDs

40 - 50 yards: 3/7, 42.8%, 3 TDs, 

50+ yards: none

 

Josh Allen 2020:

30 - 40 yards: 6/20, 30%, 2 TDs, 1 INT

40 - 50 yards: 3/9, 33.3%, 1 TD

50+ yards: 0/1

 

Russell Wilson:

30 - 40 yards: 9/26, 34.6%, 4 TDs, 2 INTs

40 - 50 yards: 4/13, 30.7% 2 TDs

50+ yards: 2/2, 100% 2 TDs

 

They aren't all that far apart.

 

 

 

I'm on vacation and will take the next few days off. The wife is keeping me busy with para-sailing, sand dune sledding, museums, hot spring baths and great food, most recently Korean barbecue tonight.

 

I'll be back Tuesday or Wednesday depending how long it takes me to catch up with my work.

And that interception for Josh was the Kroft play, right?  Meaning it should’ve been 7/20. 

[Thurman#1]

37 minutes ago, Doc said:

And that interception for Josh was the Kroft play, right?  Meaning it should’ve been 7/20. 

 

 

Just caught this before I logged off.

 

Oh, my God, I didn't even think of that, but yes, it was the Kroft play that absolutely in any sane universe should have been ruled a completion.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Nobody has guessed yet. Which one of the four QBs above is Allen? Which is Russ Wilson? Which is Rodgers and which is Mahomes?

 

Compare their Completion percentages at similar distances. Very very similar. So again:

 

 

 

 

Nobody has guessed because you went into a filibuster.........you've run out of real estate.

 

What's even more distasteful is that you are trying to look witty doing it..........remember.........brevity is the soul of wit.

 

 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

Just caught this before I logged off.

 

Oh, my God, I didn't even think of that, but yes, it was the Kroft play that absolutely in any sane universe should have been ruled a completion.

 

 

Another thing that’s noticeable is that 30+ yard passes account for approximately just 2 passes a game on average. 

[K-9]

It’s funny how some are seeking to point to the success rate of the lowest percentage play in the game as some sort of important benchmark for quarterbacks to achieve. No QB has ever had a high completion percentage on these passes and it’s kind of absurd to quibble about percentages on such a low number attempts across the league. The fact is there are only a handful of QBs in that opposing DCs have to respect in that regard and Allen is one of them. The threat of stretching the field is what’s important here. 

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Nobody has guessed because you went into a filibuster.........you've run out of real estate.

 

What's even more distasteful is that you are trying to look witty doing it..........remember.........brevity is the soul of wit.

 

 

So instead of trying to answer him you decided to just display your lack of understanding of the word filibuster?

Edited April 3, 2021 by Warcodered

[ColoradoBills]

Good grief, when an OC calls for a long ball (bomb for us old timers) generally a 40+ yard pass so many thing have to happen

correctly for a completion that using only a QB completion rate is foolish.  It's why it is inherently a low percentage pass because of that fact.

The QB is just one part of that equation.

 

There are QBs who are generally a little better than the norm over years on these limited attempted plays but even then a lot

of other factors are needed for success.

 

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills Offense were NOT good at these passes his first 2 years in the league.  That is a fact!

Last year (it has already been confirmed by many sources) that the TEAM worked on this more and significantly improved

on this low percentage play.  I expect them to continue to work on it and there is a reasonable chance for continued improvement.

 

Anyone wanting to argue with what I stated above?

 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

It’s funny how some are seeking to point to the success rate of the lowest percentage play in the game as some sort of important benchmark for quarterbacks to achieve. No QB has ever had a high completion percentage on these passes and it’s kind of absurd to quibble about percentages on such a low number attempts across the league. The fact is there are only a handful of QBs in that opposing DCs have to respect in that regard and Allen is one of them. The threat of stretching the field is what’s important here. 

 

This isn't MLB.......low number stats/sample sizes matter in a very short 16-17 game season matter.

 

Like TD passes thrown per game.    Only 10 QB's even reached an average of 2 per start last year in a historic season for offense.

 

A lot of big stats in the NFL are things that a great player only achieves just once or twice per game.

 

Hitting on just 5-6 more deep balls per season might be the only difference between Allen being an NFL MVP and just being a top 5 QB...........connecting on just 1 more can be the difference between winning a game and losing it.

 

I'm certain Allen is working on it this offseason......he was the worst at in 2019.........per the NFL's own stat service he was 14th last season..........this year I anticipate that he will be one of the best at it and then nobody will be talking about small sample sizes or diminishing the value of these big plays.