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Do the Bills have "their guy" picked out?


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I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

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At 30 they don't really have a "guy" because there are too many scenarios in play ahead of them. Best they can do is maybe see a player they really wanted slip into the 20s and then move up to get him.

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1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

At 30 they don't really have a "guy" because there are too many scenarios in play ahead of them. Best they can do is maybe see a player they really wanted slip into the 20s and then move up to get him.

I agree that it's a strange draft, but I do think they've targeted a player.  They've spent the offseason on this.  

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I think the Allen situation was different, they knew they had to get a QB so it grossly limited the number of people they could zero in on.  Now they have their franchise QB they just have to get players to make the team better, not necessarily pick for need.

 

That said, at #30 they probably have to limit their expectations of who will be there.  I love Travis Etienne, but I dont think he gets there.   They most likely have to look at guys like Eric Stokes, Jayson Oweh, Terrance Marshall Jr., Kadarius Toney, Christian Baramore, and Gregory Rousseau.

 

The 49ers trade, especially if they really went up for Mac Jones has made everything a lot more fluid.

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I suspect it is more a they have “guys” they are targeting at different points during the draft subject to what has transpired as their pick approaches.  Not discounting moving up or down, but imo this is a more likely their general thought process.

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I hope not.  You’d probably have to be targeting a 2nd round guy on your board to be reasonably sure you’d get him at 30.  
I bet Beane has 3-4 guys he’d trade up for if they fall to a certain draft position, a couple he’d be happy with at 30 and then a trade down scenario if the he doesn’t trade up or like who’s available at 30.  

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Being at 30 is not like being in the top 10. There are always surprises, in many instances trades, and an occasional wtf type of pick. I'm sure they have a board and they'll stick to that board. Names will be crossed off of the list when they are selected. However that board stands when they get on the clock will be how they make their selection. 

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20 minutes ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I remember watching when Josh was picked.  I had told my buddy "the Bills have picked out their guy, and they're gonna get him no matter what it takes."  I think they did the same thing when they moved up to get Dawkins and Knox.  I believe they have a guy they want in this draft, probably one in each round, and they will do what it takes to get him.  If they have to move up, they will do that.  If he's there at #30, depending on the situation, they may move down a bit to get him.  But they'll get him.

 

Any thoughts on who "their guy" might be?  

Keep in mind that unless the Bills moved to #1 overall, there was no guarantee the Bills were going to get "their guy in Allen".  There were six selections that could have really messed with the plan.

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20 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

I think the Allen situation was different, they knew they had to get a QB so it grossly limited the number of people they could zero in on.  Now they have their franchise QB they just have to get players to make the team better, not necessarily pick for need.

 

That said, at #30 they probably have to limit their expectations of who will be there.  I love Travis Etienne, but I dont think he gets there.   They most likely have to look at guys like Eric Stokes, Jayson Oweh, Terrance Marshall Jr., Kadarius Toney, Christian Baramore, and Gregory Rousseau.

 

The 49ers trade, especially if they really went up for Mac Jones has made everything a lot more fluid.

I live in bama run for the hills on Baramore. "Dareusitis"

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18 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

At 30 they don't really have a "guy" because there are too many scenarios in play ahead of them. Best they can do is maybe see a player they really wanted slip into the 20s and then move up to get him.

 

What he said.

 

Unless you are drafting in the Top 5-10 picks (or determined to make a trade-up), there is no way a team picking #30 can have a particular guy in mind.  I've been watching the draft for 20+ years and it's way too ridiculously unpredictable after the first handful of players.

 

My understanding of Beane's drafting style is that he placed guys into tiers.  As our pick gets closer and guys start coming off the board, he makes the determination on whether a trade-up is needed to secure somebody he wants, or if he can stay put or trade-back.

 

Even in Josh Allen's case, I don't believe he was the Bills ONLY target that night.  What if the Browns (#1) or Jets (#3) had taken Allen instead?  Beane would have wasted trading Cordy Glenn, and then been left with a quarterback he didn't really want.  Based on all the stories I have heard regarding the Allen pick, I believe Beane had narrowed things down to 3 QBs he was comfortable drafting, and was confident he could ultimately make the move high enough to land him.

 

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7 minutes ago, BTB said:

Keep in mind that unless the Bills moved to #1 overall, there was no guarantee the Bills were going to get "their guy in Allen".  There were six selections that could have really messed with the plan.

Exactly. And even if they had the #1, Darnold may have been the true "their guy", only the people in the war room and a scant few other will ever know for sure, and the way that's played out, absolutely no one will be saying otherwise anytime soon. 

 

I'm sure they have a guy that they'd LOVE to have, but sitting at 30, there's dream wants and there's realistic wants. So no, there's not *one* guy that they've targeted that they'll go all in for, even if they tell you that's what happened afterwards. They'll have their board, they'll have needs and wants and value pretty clearly defined, and they'll have to take it from there. There's simply far too many variables to hone in on one guy at 30...

1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

 

What he said.

 

Unless you are drafting in the Top 5-10 picks (or determined to make a trade-up), there is no way a team picking #30 can have a particular guy in mind.  I've been watching the draft for 20+ years and it's way too ridiculously unpredictable after the first handful of players.

 

My understanding of Beane's drafting style is that he placed guys into tiers.  As our pick gets closer and guys start coming off the board, he makes the determination on whether a trade-up is needed to secure somebody he wants, or if he can stay put or trade-back.

Yeah, I think the closest we could be to this sort of thing is my fever dream of Pitts falling to the early teens. Beane & co. will have also scouted out and had speculative conversations with just about every team above us (within realistic reach) about what it would take to move up -- as every team will have. So yeah, in the case that a Pitts, Paye, maybe a waddle start to slide, it's not unrealistic to think we could go get them, but under no circumstances are they honed in at one guy. The Jets at 2 aren't even honed in on one guy! 🤣

 

 

2 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Even in Josh Allen's case, I don't believe he was the Bills ONLY target that night.  What if the Browns (#1) or Jets (#3) had taken Allen instead?  Beane would have wasted trading Cordy Glenn, and then been left with a quarterback he didn't really want.  Based on all the stories I have heard regarding the Allen pick, I believe Beane had narrowed things down to 3 QBs he was comfortable drafting, and was confident he could ultimately make the move high enough to land him.

 

Not to be pedantic about it, but Allen wasn't even Beane's only DRAFT pick that night...

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6 minutes ago, Baba Booey said:

Kyle Pitts is that guy!!! Just no chance of getting him. He would take the offense to the next level. 

Kyle Pitts is "that guy" for many of these teams who will never have a shot at selecting him. :thumbsup:

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Hopefully the Bills will be drafting late for years to come.  At this end of the draft, Mr. Beane just has to stay patient.  You're rewarded with guys that fall right into your lap.  Happens every year.  It will happen this year too.   

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