Chris Simms: Chiefs and Bills offenses will both look totally different from Week 6 Chiefs-Bills offenses, with lots of details

[Thurman#1]

41 minutes on this game, with a lot of reference to the Week 5 Bill - Chiefs game.

 

 

 

 

00:20  Burmeister:  (in the Week 6 game) ... the Chiefs offense didn't look the way we've become used to seeing it. It wasn't explosive. They didn't hit the 30s with the point total. But they found a way to win. So what is still relevant, three months later about that game?

 

Simms:  Well, I think there's not going to be a ton that's relevant. Both teams I think now are in different spots from where they were then to where they are right now. And I think the biggest thing is ... this game was a bit of an adjustment for KC too. They were still getting used to, "Wait, teams are still playing these deep coverages on us and what are we going to do to answer that," because the week before they'd lost to the Las Vegas Raiders. The week before that they had issues against the Patriots. They won in overtime a few weeks before that against the Chargers. So they were trying at that point to adjust to ... "Wait, how are we going to adjust to these teams who play these vanilla deep-dropping type defenses against us and take away our big plays?" They were in the midst of trying to figure that out.

 

The other side of that coin is that the Buffalo defense, it's not even recognizable to where it was at that point. They were 1) a beat-up football team at that time, not playing well, and so vanilla on defense it was embarrassing. They played two defenses. It was like you're basically telling Kansas City, "Hey, look at this hole we've left on the left side, just keep running here." And they were having issues at that time either way. The big thing I'm trying to say is, "I don't know if we're going to see the same approach from either team in this matchup. I think you could see it different on both sides of the ball here."

 

 

Simms suggested that what KC should do differently is to spread out. Even if they want to run the football like last time, they should do it while spreading out. That way they'd still have the ability to run but also make the Bills worry about them getting it downfield. Last time they were in 21 and Mahomes was under center. Simms said that played into the hands of the Bills. He also said that the Chiefs have since figured out how to handle it when teams play vanilla deep drops.

 

 

 

6:00 Simms:  "The Bills defense has been really good. The one advantage they've had down the stretch, though, and even last week, they've played a lot of one-dimensional offenses down the stretch. Oh, it's New England? We've got to stop the run. Oh, it's Baltimore? We've got to stop the run. Oh, it's Pittsburgh? All we've got to worry about is the pass. McDermott's unbelievable when he can pin you to 'they're mainly this kind of team.'

 

Burmeister: What about Indy, though? They were fairly balanced.

 

Simms:  And that gave 'em issues. They were in deep *****. They couldn't stop the Colts. That's where I was just about to go. I mean the Colts ran it and threw it at will. At will. They won the game because one team had Josh Allen and the other didn't. That's where I worry about this and that's where I would say with Kansas City, you know, 'Don't get in power running formations. You can still run the ball out of the shotgun and be effective but you're going to force Buffalo in a real bind of, 'Wait, they can run on us, but man, Kelce and Tyreek one-on-one? Holy crap, what do we do?

 

 

 

22:30  Burmeister:  I was looking back at your [week 6] notes ... you wrote 'The Bills let the Kansas City D off the hook.' What did you mean?

 

Simms:  I did a Josh Allen interview last week. He talked about these two losses they had, the Chiefs and the Titans, those are the first two teams this year that played soft zone-dropping coverages for them too. They didn't know how to react. He referenced it specifically to me last week. It was his worst game, and he said 'I didn't handle it well. And I don't think we were prepared to play that style of defense yet. We hadn't figured out how we wanted to attack it. They kind of did the same things that the Chiefs did, where they tried to get into these 21 personnel sets and get underneath the center where we're gonna run a balanced offense. And to me it played into the hands of the Chiefs.

 

 

 

Simms pointed out that the last 5 or 6 weeks, KC's red zone offense hasn't been all that great. A lot of field goals.

 

 

 

It was interesting stuff. He said that both offenses in game 6 were dealing with a new offensive wrinkle, and interestingly, it was the same wrinkle. Both offenses were facing defenses that wanted to drop way back and take away their big plays, and neither had figured out how to handle that yet. And that by now, both teams have figured it out. So the offenses we see this week won't have the same problems they did in the earlier game.

 

I'd thought the Bills D would do some of the same things they'd done early since they stopped the Chiefs from scoring much. Simms said that kind of D won't hold back the Chiefs the same way this time, and that the same is true of our offense, that the Chiefs won't be able to hold us down the same way either.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

I will give it a watch Thurm. But instant reaction is Simms is right you can't beat the Bills D being one dimensional. The teams that trouble us have that balance. When we played KC earlier in the year we were majorly beat up on that side and I think McDermott's plan which while hard to watch was about getting into the 4th Qrtr in a one score game was relatively smart. That said I don't think in a playoff game you can come out and just play that way. They have to try and get the KC offense out of its rhythm. But our own offense is part of our defense this week. We have to score every time we get the ball... and the majority have to be touchdowns not FGs.

[Thurman#1]

Gunner, yeah, it's seemed really interesting to me how the Bills have handled these one-dimensional teams so very well. Due to that and the relatively good result last time of holding the Chiefs to 26 points, I kind of thought we might see the Bills running the same kind of D.

 

Simms is saying that both offenses handled poorly what the opponent Ds did to them and he thinks both offenses would do much better if faced with the same defensive approach.

 

Interesting, I thought.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

were gonna leave tyreek and/or kelce one on one in man coverage because were that worried about what they did to us like 4 months ago when half our starting defense was out? lol what a ridiculous quote 'holy crap what do we do' ...how bout not that Chris haha the browns for whatever reason tried that for a half and got embarrassed and then really toughened up mixing more zone in in the second half.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

I hope my instinct is correct in feeling these analysts are totally underselling us.  They put too much stock in the previous game...this whole 'oh the chiefs secondary is going to shut down the bills weapons and the bills secondary has no chance against the chiefs' is illogical to me.  The ravens have a solid defensive back at every single position...slot...safeties...corners you name it and they've got it.  The chiefs have some guys you can pick on especially if breeland doesn't play who really isn't a great player anyway.  Im sure spagnuolo puts a solid game plan together hes been doing it for a long time....but there is no magical 'shut off the pass and force them to run' switch that you can turn on and off without elite talent all over the defense.  The bills and chiefs are both matchup nightmares and I just trust our defense more in the red zone than theirs.  Not to mention the strength of our team is pass blocking so I think their best player on defense chris jones will likely be schemed right out of the game 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I will give it a watch Thurm. But instant reaction is Simms is right you can't beat the Bills D being one dimensional. The teams that trouble us have that balance. When we played KC earlier in the year we were majorly beat up on that side and I think McDermott's plan which while hard to watch was about getting into the 4th Qrtr in a one score game was relatively smart. That said I don't think in a playoff game you can come out and just play that way. They have to try and get the KC offense out of its rhythm. But our own offense is part of our defense this week. We have to score every time we get the ball... and the majority have to be touchdowns not FGs.

 

Or the ability to have balance.  

 

If a team allows you to run, you run. If a team allows you to pass, you pass. 

I recall a game against the Giants, (maybe with Flutie) the Bills ran the ball on 20 straight plays (or there about).  

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

Or the ability to have balance.  

 

If a team allows you to run, you run. If a team allows you to pass, you pass. 

I recall a game against the Giants, maybe with Flutie) the Bills ran the ball on 20 straight plays (or there about).  

 

I bet @Nihilarian was very excited by this 😁

[HOUSE]

OMG, Almost every pass will go to Duke Williams

[finn]

The Bills don't have injuries to Allen, Milano and Edwards now, so it'll be a very different game right there. But now Davis and Beasley are hurt, so it's not all roses, especially with KC getting all its key players back. Beasley had a terrific corner on him against Baltimore, but in the clips I saw of him he was just going through the motions; his knee injury must be serious, even if he's not on the injury list. If Davis is hobbling, too, KC can bracket Diggs to take him out of the game, and then I'd worry about Allen trying to do too much, especially if they fall behind. The usual: throwing into double coverage, holding onto the ball too long, risking his neck to get the first down, and, worse of all, relying on Knox or Duke Williams. I have to say, though, I'm very confident that Frazier and McDermott will do something innovative and effective against Mahomes, and I am pretty confident that Allen to stay patient and take what's there: underneath throws to Singletary, passes in the flat to fat old Lee Smith, designed QB runs, maybe even (gasp) handing it off to the running backs. I'd love to see Williams and his explosiveness in the game. In short, the first meeting offers very few clues on how this game will go. The Bills are much better overall than they were, and KC looks like they'll be as good as they ever were. Should be really fun to watch. Just hope the fricking rain won't be a factor. 

 

[H2o]

I expect to see a different Josh Allen just for the fact his shoulder isn't an issue anymore. Our WR's are a little banged up, but I still expect them all to be out there and for all to contribute. Our defense is also way more healthy now than it was then. This is the AFC Championship game. It's gonna be a dog fight. Expect any and every stop to be pulled out by both squads. It will surely be a completely different show from week 6 of this year. 

[BillsFanThru-N-Thru]

To me one of the biggest things is the solid Oline play.  In the KC game the guards were Winters and Ford, now it's Felicano and Boettger.  I think the way the offense line is playing is vastly different then that game.

[Big Turk]

I think this game may come down to turnovers.

[krf139]

Simms thought the Ravens would win last week 

[Bookie Man]

Phil Simms looks more and more like Austin Powers every time I see him on tv.

[26TrapDraw]

I just think that with KC you should focus on their strength and that is the pass. I know they can run but I still think you have to make it hard for Mahomes to get in a rhythm. I realize their offense can do it all so The Bills D has a tough assignment but The Bills should just let it all hang out on Offense and just score points in bunches. Put the pressure on KC and Hope they make the mistake of abandoning the run because they are behind. KC didn’t go 14-2 cause they suck. Much easier said then done.

gonna be a good one can’t wait.

oh and.....

 

LET’S &$@!ING GOOO!!!!!!!!!

[PrimeTime101]

On Offense

no 3 and outs. we don't need to score every drive because I think our defense will be better then predicted

Josh needs to come out of the gate throwing accurate football

Our Oline has to have its best day protecting Josh.

our WR's need to get back to doing fresh 10-20 yard routs.(20 yards stretches them out plenty this is not a great defense like Baltimore) We need to be patient. Don't throw the home run balls on third and manageable yards 

Our running game needs to do enough to have a couple gouging plays so its viewed as a threat

Play action and run out of the shotgun. Keep them honest.

Get solid points off turnovers

 

On defense..

the LB's need to be jumpy all game.. Make then think one person is coming then come with a different person.

Our front 4 needs to get home.. at least reach and put pressure on Mahomes.. 

Don't get beat deep. period. 

Make Mahomes have to throw 8-9 times a drive instead of 4 times a drive.

Don't be flustered when they score. Its going to happen.

Don't get behind to quick.

We need 1-2 turn overs 

 

Comparison to our struggles is the Indy game... I'm sorry Mahomes is a different beast.. Like Allen he will constantly look for the deep ball. no 2.5 seconds and the ball is gone this game... that's not there style

 

 

Its also not talked about enough that Mahomes struggled vs so many teams down the stretch. Miami comes to mind.. Did we have problems with Miami? no.. but they did. This team has wanted to play KC since the last game... KC feels they deserve another SB run. We feel we will fight for it and win for another SB run.

 

This is going to be a fun game but not for the bad hearts.. but to be honest can we do all this? IF Cleveland almost did we sure as heck can... Confidence will take this team a long way

[krf139]

29 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

What? Are you kidding? 

 

No way am I taking anything this Simms guy says serious now. ***** fraud. 

Not saying he's a fraud.  He's just tough to follow sometimes.  He's very articulate and has good insight.  He's been on the Bills / Josh bandwagon for quite some time, but wrongly pointed out they wouldn't be able to handle the Ravens.  While at Texas, he also claimed Chilis was his favorite Mexican restaurant (while living in the middle of some of the best Mexican restaurants in the country).  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

It's not a problem to make this a separate thread, but I'll cross-post from the pregame thread:

I didn't find it as useful or insightful as many of the podcasts because of Phil Simms taking over so much of the show.  It was pretty clear that while he had watched the Bills-Ravens game, he really had done no homework about the Bills and had no idea of the Bills player personnel or how the Bills usually play defense.  I'm not a big fan of Phil Simms football viewpoints.  I thought it was interesting how deferential Chris was to his father and unable to reclaim his time, though he took gentle pokes at him afterwards.

 

Neither of them brought up the role injuries played in that Week 6 game, which IMO is huge to understanding it.  In contrast, when asked what is different about the Bills now vs. the Bills in week 6, Andy Reid zeroed right in on this point first off:

"Well, they're healthy.  They were missing a couple of guys, key guys."  If the KC HC puts it front-and-center, it's a real factor.

 

Fundamentally I learned from the Phil Simms-on-the-phone segment that

1) The Bills secondary can't possibly shut down or limit the Chiefs because after Kelce and Hill, the Bills still have to defend Hardman, Robinson, and Watkins and they can only shut down one guy.  (I take out Kelce and Hill's receiving yds and obviously Mahomes other 2048 yds were thrown to elite WR)

2) The Chiefs have one of the best secondaries in the league and can pick throws to Beasley and take out Diggs.  The Bills evidently have no receivers behind them named Brown, Davis, and McKenzie. (I take out Diggs and Beasley's receiving yards and evidently Allen's other 2042 yds were thrown to ?? Sagebrush??  Mustangs??  Repurposed OLmen?)

3) Somehow picks are a worry for the Bills playing KC but apparently not for KC playing the Bills.  Now it is true that the Chiefs are #2 in the NFL for picks with 16 this season....but guess who is #3 with 15?

 

I'm sure there was insight there but I was rolling my eyes too much by the time it came around, to absorb it.

 

The initial part before Phil Simms called in was pretty insightful

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

2 hours ago, finn said:

The Bills don't have injuries to Allen, Milano and Edwards now, so it'll be a very different game right there. But now Davis and Beasley are hurt, so it's not all roses, especially with KC getting all its key players back. Beasley had a terrific corner on him against Baltimore, but in the clips I saw of him he was just going through the motions; his knee injury must be serious, even if he's not on the injury list.

 

I disagree with this assessment, as well as with Phil Simms comment that "every time I looked at him he was just running the one route".  If his knee injury is serious and still affecting him and he's getting treatment, but he's NOT on the injury list, the Bills would be liable to fines and discipline.

 

2 hours ago, finn said:

If Davis is hobbling, too, KC can bracket Diggs to take him out of the game, and then I'd worry about Allen trying to do too much

 

John Brown and Isaiah McKenzie say "Hi"

 

 

[billsherd]

2 hours ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

To me one of the biggest things is the solid Oline play.  In the KC game the guards were Winters and Ford, now it's Felicano and Boettger.  I think the way the offense line is playing is vastly different then that game.

This was a problem last time we played Chiefs. OL has improved since than but there are games when they have let Allen get under pressure like the Colts game. 

[finn]

46 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

I disagree with this assessment, as well as with Phil Simms comment that "every time I looked at him he was just running the one route".  If his knee injury is serious and still affecting him and he's getting treatment, but he's NOT on the injury list, the Bills would be liable to fines and discipline.

 

 

John Brown and Isaiah McKenzie say "Hi"

 

 

Yeah, I'm just expressing anxiety, which is funny because mostly I'm quite confident the Bills will win. But as for Beasley, I thought speculation was that he had a torn meniscus, which is painful and debilitating but playable. I wonder if that report was just wrong. I sure hope so. A Beasley at full strength makes the Bills much harder to stop. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

28 minutes ago, finn said:

Yeah, I'm just expressing anxiety, which is funny because mostly I'm quite confident the Bills will win. But as for Beasley, I thought speculation was that he had a torn meniscus, which is painful and debilitating but playable. I wonder if that report was just wrong. I sure hope so. A Beasley at full strength makes the Bills much harder to stop. 

 

I don't think he can have a torn meniscus, or he likely wouldn't be off the injury report.  Speculation at the time included a contusion to the side of the knee; other possibilites (not obvious from the play, but could be hard to tell) would include some kind of sprain that occurred earlier and was aggrevated by that play.

 

https://bangedupbills.com/2020/12/30/2020-week-16-bills-injury-review-patriots/

[djp14150]

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think he can have a torn meniscus, or he likely wouldn't be off the injury report.  Speculation at the time included a contusion to the side of the knee; other possibilites (not obvious from the play, but could be hard to tell) would include some kind of sprain that occurred earlier and was aggrevated by that play.

 

https://bangedupbills.com/2020/12/30/2020-week-16-bills-injury-review-patriots/

 

i had a torn meniscus last year. What Beasley has is not one of those. I had surgery

[spartacus]

37 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think he can have a torn meniscus, or he likely wouldn't be off the injury report. 

could have had arthroscopic procedure to shave down the torn meniscus

 

if meniscus, pain and lack of motion was from swelling in the joint - which has now subsided or will be drained

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, spartacus said:

could have had arthroscopic procedure to shave down the torn meniscus

 

if meniscus, pain and lack of motion was from swelling in the joint - which has now subsided or will be drained

 

I think he misses time if he had arthroscopic.  After playing a football game, the swelling likely to recur and require further treatment/drainage = injury report.

[ajmac]

I am sure someone already said this...but Josh Allen was hurting during that stretch. His left shoulder was in a harness and his power as a thrower wasn’t there, neither the accuracy.

I know other guys were hurt too, like Edmunds, Milano, and Wallace on D. 
 

We are NOT the same team. We are much better and I would argue that KC looks less dominant as well. 
 

WE CAN WIN!!! 💯 🏈 end the debate, and Billieve‼️

 

Go Bills ‼️

[djp14150]

Of their last 8 wins, they were by 6 pts or less.  In 5 of them they were behind or had a 3-4 pts lead in the 3rdquarter. 3 of those wins involved the opponent pulling close late after being down by 17+ points.

 

I don’t buy the claim if buffalo playing simpleton one dimension teams.  Kansas City had a similar closing schedule as buffalo. They played some common opponents.

 

their regular season match up isn’t a good barometer.  Buffalos defense is playing better ( and being healthy).

 

there offenses are similar ( with some differences) and their defenses are different.

 

it will be about executing offensively, making big plays ( turnovers, loss yds plays) and stopping them in 3 rd and 6+ yds. On defense holding them to FGs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

19 hours ago, krf139 said:

Not saying he's a fraud.  He's just tough to follow sometimes.  He's very articulate and has good insight.  He's been on the Bills / Josh bandwagon for quite some time, but wrongly pointed out they wouldn't be able to handle the Ravens.  While at Texas, he also claimed Chilis was his favorite Mexican restaurant (while living in the middle of some of the best Mexican restaurants in the country).  

 

 

He didn't "point out they wouldn't be able to handle the Ravens." He never ever pretends to know the future. He gave an opinion.

 

He gives his best educated guess about each game. And he's a hell of a lot more educated than most. But absolutely nobody correctly predicts NFL games correctly against the spread at a very high rate. If they did they'd quickly be new Rockefellers and the sports books would shut down.

 

"Tough to follow"? Um, I guess I can see that. He puts words together in weird ways sometimes, creates Simms-isms. "Self-scout thyself," and so on. And he gets excited and talks really fast. I generally understand him well, except with the football jargon which sometimes goes beyond me. I find that fascinating, though, and treat it as a chance to do some homework.

 

I'll trust you on the Chili's thing, though. I've never been to Texas but if he said that it does show some questionable food preferences.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, djp14150 said:

Of their last 8 wins, they were by 6 pts or less.  In 5 of them they were behind or had a 3-4 pts lead in the 3rdquarter. 3 of those wins involved the opponent pulling close late after being down by 17+ points.

 

I don’t buy the claim if buffalo playing simpleton one dimension teams.  Kansas City had a similar closing schedule as buffalo. They played some common opponents.

 

their regular season match up isn’t a good barometer.  Buffalos defense is playing better ( and being healthy).

 

there offenses are similar ( with some differences) and their defenses are different.

 

it will be about executing offensively, making big plays ( turnovers, loss yds plays) and stopping them in 3 rd and 6+ yds. On defense holding them to FGs.

 

 

 

Come on, man, answer what he said rather than what you think would be the easiest thing to counter-argue.

 

He didn't say or in any way imply the Bills were playing "simpleton" teams. He had great respect for the Ravens offense, but yeah, thinks most of their offensive productivity came from the run game. How can anyone argue? He knows the Steelers offense has been pretty good, but how can you argue that their productivity came mostly from the passing game and particularly the short passing game, especially late in the year? I mean, since Week 7 they have exactly one game in which they managed a hundred yards on the ground ... and out of those twelve games, in only four did they manage more than 68 yards!  And frankly, how can anyone argue that the Pats isn't very solid in the run game but pretty weak in passing? They're closest to a "simpleton" I guess, and they aren't that bad, nor did he say they were. The Niners run game is really good, but with no Jimmy G, their pass game is pretty poor.

 

And those were four of the Bills last seven games, the other three being the Broncos, Fins and Colts. The Broncos offense is just pretty crappy. The Fins, when Tua is QBing, just aren't all that strong anywhere. The only time of those last six when we played a team that was good at both facets was the Colts.

 

He wasn't using that as an argument the Bills D were bad. Just that the Frazier/McDermott defense has shown itself to be very very good at stopping one-dimensional offenses, even good ones. And KC is not one-dimensional.

 

The Chiefs last seven games were the Bucs, Broncos, Dolphins, Saints, Falcons, Chargers and Browns. Which of those offenses are good to very good but one-dimensional?

 

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Thurman#1

[machine gun kelly]

18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

I disagree with this assessment, as well as with Phil Simms comment that "every time I looked at him he was just running the one route".  If his knee injury is serious and still affecting him and he's getting treatment, but he's NOT on the injury list, the Bills would be liable to fines and discipline.

 

 

John Brown and Isaiah McKenzie say "Hi"

 

 

Beasely although was a full participant Wed., was back to limited duty TR.  I’m guessing they are just being cautious and Davis may be fine by Sunday.  The Chiefs can’t double cover everyone.  Between Diggs, Brown, Beasely, Davis and McKenzie, we should be fine against a Chiefs team that was 15th against the pass, and 21st against the rush.

 

Im not saying it’s a lock to win, but I believe we have a 60% of beating them.  We’ll find out Sunday.