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By the percentages - The Bills likely 1st round playoff opponent based on the Miami game


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These are not even close to accurate. These numbers are probably assuming every possible scenario has an equal chance of happening.   If buffalo and pittsburgh lose which they most likely wi

Disclaimer: I know how to copy and paste like a champ!    If the Bills beat Miami in week 17 37.5% chance of playing Miami 25% chance of playing Baltimore 25% chance of p

3 minutes ago, unclepete said:

Don’t want to okay the Dolphins. They’re well coached and beating a. Team 3 times in one season is really difficult. Too many opportunities for that staff to make adjustments. 

Is the "difficult to beat a team three times in one season" trope an actual thing or an urban legend?  Anyone have any stats to illuminate?

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7 minutes ago, unclepete said:

Don’t want to okay the Dolphins. They’re well coached and beating a. Team 3 times in one season is really difficult. Too many opportunities for that staff to make adjustments. 

I’ll take our game preparation over the Dolphins any day. They HAVE TO put it ALL out there this Sunday. They’ve got no time or room to come up with an entirely different plan to beat us again a week later. 

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6 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

Is the "difficult to beat a team three times in one season" trope an actual thing or an urban legend?  Anyone have any stats to illuminate?

 

I clearly remember Kelly doing it to the Dolphins.  That's as far as my gray matter allows for such esoteric stats.

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1 hour ago, Playoffs? said:

Thad Brown posted earlier...

 

Assuming BAL, TEN and IND win (which I think are safe assumptions), here’s who our Wildcard weekend opponent would be:

 

PIT W & BUF W - Dolphins 

PIT W & BUF L - Ravens 

PIT L & BUF W - Colts 

PIT L & BUF L - Browns

If this is reality, Frank Reich returns to Buffalo.  Might be chilly.

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1 hour ago, Draconator said:

Disclaimer: I know how to copy and paste like a champ! 

 

If the Bills beat Miami in week 17

  • 37.5% chance of playing Miami
  • 25% chance of playing Baltimore
  • 25% chance of playing Cleveland
  • 6.25% chance of playing Tennessee
  • 6.25% chance of playing Indianapolis

If the Bills lose to Miami in week 17

  • 50% chance of playing Baltimore
  • 25% chance of playing Cleveland
  • 12.5% chance of playing Tennessee
  • 12.5% chance of playing Indianapolis
  • 0% chance of playing Miami


 

there are 5 games so 2x2x2x2x2= 32 scenarios.

 

the numbers match scenario count.

 

Miami W they are 5 seed

Trnnesse W or Indy lose they are division champs

 

if you ignore the Tennessee game there are just 16 scenarios with conditions on tenn W/L.

 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Gene1973 said:

I'd imagine yes.

 

So, really, it doesn't matter whether it's a divisional opponent or not.

 

Miami knows us. We know Miami.

 

Whoever plays the better game will win. Just like opponents from another division or conference.

1 hour ago, st pete gogolak said:

Is the "difficult to beat a team three times in one season" trope an actual thing or an urban legend?  Anyone have any stats to illuminate?

It's an urban legend as you say.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/02/beating-a-team-three-times-not-as-hard-as-it-sounds/amp/

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1 hour ago, unclepete said:

Don’t want to okay the Dolphins. They’re well coached and beating a. Team 3 times in one season is really difficult. Too many opportunities for that staff to make adjustments. 


i am with you. Playing a team 3 times is always a risk. Would rather draw the Colts or Browns. 

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1 hour ago, Playoffs? said:

Thad Brown posted earlier...

 

Assuming BAL, TEN and IND win (which I think are safe assumptions), here’s who our Wildcard weekend opponent would be:

 

PIT W & BUF W - Dolphins 

PIT W & BUF L - Ravens 

PIT L & BUF W - Colts 

PIT L & BUF L - Browns


thad brow is a @#&&ing moron....


assume Balt and Ind W and TEN W 

IF PIT W and BUF W

 

2 BUF  vs 7 MIA

3 PIT vs 6 IND

4 TEN vs 5 BAL

 

IF PIT W and BUF L

 

2 PIT vs 7 IND 

3 BUF vs 6 BAL

4 TEN vs 5 MIA


 

compare the two below.....

 

IF PIT L and BUF W


2 BUF vs  7 IND  

3 PIT vs 5 CLE 

4 TEN vs 5 BAL

 

IF PIT L and BUF L

 

2 BUF vs 7 CLE 

3 PIT vs 6 BAL

4 TEN 5 MIA

 

in the later one if BUF W and PIT L ...BUF would play MIA/TEN winner which has a de ent chance of being Miami.

 

in the s rnsrio above its baltimore ir Tennessee.

 

I don’t think TEN has an easy win. It’s in Houston snd their last meeting Houston should have won but ten won in OT. If TEN lose they are out and it’s IND hosting MIA

 

look ahead beyond the stop sign in front of you...

 

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7 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:


i am with you. Playing a team 3 times is always a risk. Would rather draw the Colts or Browns. 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/02/beating-a-team-three-times-not-as-hard-as-it-sounds/amp/

 

Beating a team three times in a season is more likely than not once the first two wins are secured.

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I want to win against Miami for a number of reasons. Not only does it make Indy and Miami more likely 1st round opponents, but it could help us avoid Baltimore and Tennessee altogether. (Or KC if they are upset)
 

Not to mention the AFC east sweep. 
 

on the other hand, injuries could be more damaging than a tougher schedule.

 

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2 hours ago, Gene1973 said:

Why do ppl insist on playing a division opponent in the playoff's? That is not what you want to hope for, not at all...

Because the division opponent is the Dolphins who rank in the 23rd on offense and 20th on defense in terms of yards.

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2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Because the division opponent is the Dolphins who rank in the 23rd on offense and 20th on defense in terms of yards.

Some people believe in these football-isms as though they were etched in stone by God.

 

"Thou shalt not play a division opponent; division opponents are tougher than regular opponents" and so on.

 

The reality is it is all about matchups and the "better" team to play is the one you match up better against.

 

I would rather play the Dolphins than a number of the other candidates this year, because we are the better team in the matchup.  The fact that they are in our division, or that it might be the 3rd match up in the season, etc., are almost meaningless concerns in contrast.

 

The Dolphins also don't have an elite QB, unlike a bunch of other teams we will have to worry about at some point, should we get far enough.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Draconator said:

Disclaimer: I know how to copy and paste like a champ! 

 

If the Bills beat Miami in week 17

  • 37.5% chance of playing Miami
  • 25% chance of playing Baltimore
  • 25% chance of playing Cleveland
  • 6.25% chance of playing Tennessee
  • 6.25% chance of playing Indianapolis

If the Bills lose to Miami in week 17

  • 50% chance of playing Baltimore
  • 25% chance of playing Cleveland
  • 12.5% chance of playing Tennessee
  • 12.5% chance of playing Indianapolis
  • 0% chance of playing Miami

Wildly misleading. Not every potential outcome can be weighted with the same probability

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This is how I see the probabilities:

  • Indy most likely to beat the Jags. (Indy must win and one team must lose)
  • Ravens likely to beat the Bengals. (If Indy wins, they must win or someone else lose)
  • Titans “should” beat Texans (If Indy wins, they must win or someone else lose)
     
  • Cleveland could beat the Steelers (If Indy wins, they must win or someone else lose)
     
  • If Indy, Ravens and Titans win and

         Browns and Bills win = #2 seed, host Colts

          Browns win and Bills lose = #2 seed, host Browns

          Browns lose and Bills win = #2 seed, host Dolphins

          Browns lose and Bills lose = #3 seed, host Ravens

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