Prioritize which upcoming UFA’s to re-sign

[Malazan]

7 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Sign Williams - 6-8M AAV

 

He's going to get over 10 million. I am in favor of signing him. Dawkins, Feliciano and Williams are an important core of the line to keep together. 

 

1. Feliciano

2. Williams

3. Milano

 

McDermott is an advantage the Bills have in that he can get a lot out of defensive players. 

 

People are also forgetting that Diggs is likely going to have his deal re-worked for more money and Allen's contract likely gets done next year at some point. I don't see Milano being signed with all of that. 

Edited December 16, 2020 by jeremy2020

[billsfan89]

I am going to assume the cap is going to be set around 195 million at worst, I think the 175 number is unlikely. I think they would rather borrow slightly from future increases (which are massive) to keep the cap flat or at worst a small cut as opposed to a massive decrease followed by massive increases. With that being said I think they will restructure Morse, Hughes, Addison and Brown's contracts, they will take slight paycuts in exchange for a few million in cap relief, I also think they cut Butler (barring a beastly breakout) and Lee Smith to free up about 10 million in space. 

 

Assuming they can shave 10 million via restructures and another 10 million via cuts to Smith and Butler the Bills should have about 50 million to work with. With the rookie scale and emergency money that gives the Bills about 30 million to work with. With that 30 million I would do the following. 

 

1- Resign D.Williams - This is probably going to take 12 million a huge chunk of the useable cap space but its worth it. D.Williams will be 29 in the 2021 season, and considering that O-line players typically play well into their early 30's (usually fall off around 32-34) he could easily anchor that spot for 3-5 more seasons. 

 

2- Resign Mongo - I think Mongo is a key component to the line, an above average RG who communicates well with Mitch and company. I think they could easily sign him to a 6 million aav deal similar to Spain but with a bit more guaranteed. 

 

3- Resign Milano - I think given Milano's injury history I think you could offer Milano a one year 6 million "prove it" deal. I think he takes it considering his banged up season he likely wants one more chance at a huge contract and staying with the Bills on a huge raise works for him. 

 

4- Resign Levi Wallace and Andre Roberts - That leaves about 6 million left to play with and about 41 players signed, rookies and minimum guys set aside for 20 million. I think 6 million is enough to bring back Andre Roberts and Wallace. Two key players who would bring you up to 43 players singed and the rookie class would and other minimum players would fill in the rest. 

 

There isn't a lot of room for free agency additions but keeping Roberts, Wallace, D.Williams, Mongo and Milano would retain 4 starters and 1 key special teams player from a 10+ win team and allow you to use the draft to fill in any gaps. Maybe add a prime time TE in round 1 and a DE in round 2 and get younger in the secondary in round 3? Ideally I would love the cap to be 205 million to be able to retain the key 5 players and add a piece or two but I would take a 195 million dollar cap to work with. 

[Jerboski]

Williams first... plays a money position and still young

 

Feliciano next.. I'm thinking morse will be cut as well

 

Don't think we should pay the money for milano..Allen is the franchise keep him safe above all else 

[foreboding]

How can you not love Milano? But availability is the best ability and he misses way to many games. Keep o-line.

[ganesh]

I am only thinking about the next 7 games of this season.....Next season can be discussed after the end of the remaining 7 games.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, Jerboski said:

Williams first... plays a money position and still young

 

Feliciano next.. I'm thinking morse will be cut as well

 

Don't think we should pay the money for milano..Allen is the franchise keep him safe above all else 

 

I think Milano is going to come back on a one year deal. I just don't see a long term deal at the 8.5+ million he envisioned pre-Covid. I think the offers he gets are in the 5-7 million dollar range with a limited guarantee for 3 years. So taking a one year deal in the 6 million dollar range makes sense for him. It is a huge raise for him and lets him rebuild his value if he can stay healthy and get that bigger deal. The Bills get him back for one more year at a reasonable cost. 

 

My main goal for the Bills this off-season is to simply maintain the core five free agents of Mongo, D.Williams, Milano, Andre Roberts, and Levi Wallace. I do agree you can let Milano walk if he prices himself out but the rest you should be able to retain. 

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I am going to assume the cap is going to be set around 195 million at worst, I think the 175 number is unlikely. I think they would rather borrow slightly from future increases (which are massive) to keep the cap flat or at worst a small cut as opposed to a massive decrease followed by massive increases. With that being said I think they will restructure Morse, Hughes, Addison and Brown's contracts, they will take slight paycuts in exchange for a few million in cap relief, I also think they cut Butler (barring a beastly breakout) and Lee Smith to free up about 10 million in space. 

 

Assuming they can shave 10 million via restructures and another 10 million via cuts to Smith and Butler the Bills should have about 50 million to work with. With the rookie scale and emergency money that gives the Bills about 30 million to work with. With that 30 million I would do the following. 

 

1- Resign D.Williams - This is probably going to take 12 million a huge chunk of the useable cap space but its worth it. D.Williams will be 29 in the 2021 season, and considering that O-line players typically play well into their early 30's (usually fall off around 32-34) he could easily anchor that spot for 3-5 more seasons. 

 

2- Resign Mongo - I think Mongo is a key component to the line, an above average RG who communicates well with Mitch and company. I think they could easily sign him to a 6 million aav deal similar to Spain but with a bit more guaranteed. 

 

3- Resign Milano - I think given Milano's injury history I think you could offer Milano a one year 6 million "prove it" deal. I think he takes it considering his banged up season he likely wants one more chance at a huge contract and staying with the Bills on a huge raise works for him. 

 

4- Resign Levi Wallace and Andre Roberts - That leaves about 6 million left to play with and about 41 players signed, rookies and minimum guys set aside for 20 million. I think 6 million is enough to bring back Andre Roberts and Wallace. Two key players who would bring you up to 43 players singed and the rookie class would and other minimum players would fill in the rest. 

 

There isn't a lot of room for free agency additions but keeping Roberts, Wallace, D.Williams, Mongo and Milano would retain 4 starters and 1 key special teams player from a 10+ win team and allow you to use the draft to fill in any gaps. Maybe add a prime time TE in round 1 and a DE in round 2 and get younger in the secondary in round 3? Ideally I would love the cap to be 205 million to be able to retain the key 5 players and add a piece or two but I would take a 195 million dollar cap to work with. 

 

 

$50 M is very very optimistic, and would leave us with holes to fill to replace Smith and Butler.

 

IMO if they get an extra $20M to work with, they won't be kicking all that many cans down the road as you're suggesting. We'll see, I guess.

 

If they did get that much, I'd pretty much agree with your moves, though I think Milano would be prioritized higher.

 

I keep hearing variations on this from a Daniel Kaplan article on The Athletic, "The league and NFL Players Association agreed in August, given the pandemic-driven plunge in local revenues, to a minimum 2021 cap of $175 million. Sources have said, barring the unexpected, that is likely to be the 2021 figure. The cap is based in part on the previous year’s local revenues, which this season have been practically nonexistent, causing at the very least a $4 billion reduction in league proceeds. Without the minimum floor, the cap certainly would have fallen far more."

 

https://theathletic.com/2242868/2020/12/07/nfl-reduced-salary-cap-2021/

 

Sometimes the unexpected happens, but for obvious reasons expecting the unexpected isn't generally the path to follow. They're already essentially underwriting a large portion of that $175M with revenues from future years. If they do raise it a bit, that would help us out, no question.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

You can tell the difference?  Really Even though he's hardly played?

 

Agree I'd like to keep the offense intact to, but can't see how they can afford to without some big cuts.  And IMO one of the easiest is Brown as his replacement is already on the roster with the only thing you're losing is a bit of speed.  Certainly that's nice to have, but may be a luxury they can't afford.

 

 

Eight games is hardly "hardly played." 424 snaps. That's more than half the snaps we've gotten from Diggs, our WR snaps leader.

 

IMO you're underestimating how easy it will be to replace him. Davis is good but he doesn't threaten deep nearly as much as Brown does.

 

But yeah, we're going to have to make some painful moves. Or not be able to do some moves we'd like. Or both.

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Next year it's time for a youth movement on the DL. Addison, Jefferson, and Butler gone. Draft a DE and DT high in the draft. Those 3 save you $21 million. That might be enough to get Williams and Milano done. 

 

I think Morse goes and they draft a center. Another big savings kind of, they likely give Morse money to Feliciano. 

 

Dawkins - Ford - Rookie/Feliciano - Feliciano/Boettger - Williams 

 

I think the draft next year we'll get at least 1 DL and a Center in the top 3 rounds. 

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[BillsFanSD]

I like Milano a lot, but I don't think I can get past his injury history.  If his market value is up there with elite Wills, I think I'd probably rather spend that money at other positions and address LB in the draft.  As unpopular as that would be.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Cut Brown?

 

Nah. Only reciever with elite speed on this team. Davis isn't an X reciever yet and is still having his fair share of struggles. Brown is too valuable to cut for a little cap room.

 

Milano is a good player but he just isn't reliable. I think he's gone.... and I don't think you need to invest high in the draft for his replacement..... the Bills have a franchise QB they can afford to let certain players walk and still be among the best in the league so long as Allen remains a top QB. 

 

 

Brown is a prime candidate for a restructure extension. Probably add another year onto his deal and give him some upfront money. Cut down that cap hit by a few million. 

[GreggTX]

Many posters have drastically overrated Feliciano and I'll be really upset if they let Williams walk. Feliciano can be easily replaced by a better G. Williams can not be replaced so easily. We certainly aren't going to find a better RT in FA next year. We need to upgrade a very mediocre OL. I expect to see Williams get even better going forward as he gets even healthier and it's not like OT isn't an important position. The reason we started running more is because we were playing teams with good pass defense  and poor run defense.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Many posters have drastically overrated Feliciano and I'll be really upset if they let Williams walk. Feliciano can be easily replaced by a better G. Williams can not be replaced so easily. We certainly aren't going to find a better RT in FA next year. We need to upgrade a very mediocre OL. I expect to see Williams get even better going forward as he gets even healthier and it's not like OT isn't an important position. The reason we started running more is because we were playing teams with good pass defense  and poor run defense.

It's not easy to find a player that can play all 3 interior positions at a winning level. That said yeah Williams should be prioritized over Feliciano. 

 

Many teams would love to have our OL. They're more than good enough. I think the Bills would like a young center. 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[klos63]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It will be a buyers market but "most" teams are not going to be in cap trouble.

 

Only 13 of the 32 teams project to have less than $10M in cap space at this point including the Bills who are at about $4M.

 

I don't know what a normal offseason brings, but 13 of 32 seems like a lot of teams out of free agency. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

There’s a lot more you can do than just cutting players. Restructuring Diggs’ contract, extending Hughed, Brown, & Hyde will all save money as well. Then offer reduced salaries to Butler & Matakevich, if they don’t accept greatly reduced deals... cut em. And cut Lee Smith. 

 

Agree on Hyde, Hughes is risky extending him as he's getting up there in age. That's how a team gets itself in trouble by extending players to old to fulfill contract a level being paid.  They just restructured Diggs a couple months back, will they and can they do it again, again could get themselves in trouble restructuring too much.

 

They have 4 signed DT on the roster next year without Butler so I'd just cut him.  Cutting Smith only saves 2$2 Mil and now you need to sign a player for that role so not sure you'll gain anything there.  Agree too that you may be able to restructure Matakevich to save some.

 

 

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Eight games is hardly "hardly played." 424 snaps. That's more than half the snaps we've gotten from Diggs, our WR snaps leader.

 

IMO you're underestimating how easy it will be to replace him. Davis is good but he doesn't threaten deep nearly as much as Brown does.

 

But yeah, we're going to have to make some painful moves. Or not be able to do some moves we'd like. Or both.

 

 

To me cutting Brown or a large paycut is the least painful as you have a capable cheap replacement already on the roster.

 

 

56 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Cut Brown?

 

Nah. Only reciever with elite speed on this team. Davis isn't an X reciever yet and is still having his fair share of struggles. Brown is too valuable to cut for a little cap room.

 

Milano is a good player but he just isn't reliable. I think he's gone.... and I don't think you need to invest high in the draft for his replacement..... the Bills have a franchise QB they can afford to let certain players walk and still be among the best in the league so long as Allen remains a top QB. 

 

 

 

 

Agree, he's the only one with speed, but again could sign a cheap burner to replace.  I wouldn't call saving $8 Mil by cutting Brown a little cap room.  Not sure there's any other player on the roster that would save them as much by cutting.

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Cut Brown?

 

Nah. Only reciever with elite speed on this team. Davis isn't an X reciever yet and is still having his fair share of struggles. Brown is too valuable to cut for a little cap room.

 

Milano is a good player but he just isn't reliable. I think he's gone.... and I don't think you need to invest high in the draft for his replacement..... the Bills have a franchise QB they can afford to let certain players walk and still be among the best in the league so long as Allen remains a top QB. 

 

 

And he is protected !!!!!

[Antonio]

If we sign all 3 I don´t mind if we don´t bring any other high price FA, this would be our high price FA and they are in house, that will send a strong message to the rest of the guys. 

[YattaOkasan]

14 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I still think there is a good chance that Star hangs up the cleats next year.

I really hope not that would really hurt our cap situation.  Really tough that he opted out.  

 

Also on the $5 mil for rookies, I disagree (not sure who said this).  It looks like $5 mil cause thats the sum of their contracts, but with the rule of 51 its much less than that (like 2 mil).  

[Chuck Wagon]

After watching the Saints operate for years, I'm convinced the salary cap isn't real and was created by cheap owners with bad cap guys.  Claiming cap isn't available is a negotiating tactic to drive the price down or an excuse for an owner who doesn't want to pay.

[ILBillsfan]

The priority will be keeping the offense intact and protecting #17 teams have proven a sound offense is priority one.  To sacrifice parts that keep #17 upright and the offense humming would be a bad move imo so that would put keeping Williams and Feleciano a priority