Dawson Knox needs to go....now.

[JGMcD2]

15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

No.  Knox can't catch.  Thomas is a better QB converted TE than Knox is a TE.

 

Thomas didn't get much if any "development at TE" in Buffalo.  Nothing like what Knox is getting.  Washington put out there a guy with 54 targets in the previous 3 years---and he's making the most of the opportunity.  Knox got that much opportunity as a rookie.  Now he's certainly not getting better with another year of development. They are using him for quick dump offs at this point. His yards before catch went from 8.7 to 1.9.

Development only happens in games and with targets? Practice doesn’t matter? Off-season work doesn’t matter? The majority of development happens in the off-season... in terms of actually getting better at the position. There’s not enough time to make significant corrections to movement patterns and deficiencies during the season. So the guy gets 1 real NFL off-season (his rookie year nonetheless) to improve as a NFL tight end, after that it’s not worth continuing to work with them. Really glad we decided to go that route with Josh! 
 

It’s probably the fact that Thomas has spent almost 4 years practicing at the professional level as a TE, with game experience on top of that and now things are finally falling into place for him this season ?

 

You’re equating development to targets... 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Development only happens in games and with targets? Practice doesn’t matter? Off-season work doesn’t matter? The majority of development happens in the off-season... in terms of actually getting better at the position. There’s not enough time to make significant corrections to movement patterns and deficiencies during the season. So the guy gets 1 real NFL off-season (his rookie year nonetheless) to improve as a NFL tight end, after that it’s not worth continuing to work with them. Really glad we decided to go that route with Josh! 
 

It’s probably the fact that Thomas has spent almost 4 years practicing at the professional level as a TE, with game experience on top of that and now things are finally falling into place for him this season ?

 

You’re equating development to targets... 

 

No, he's saying Thomas was already developed in those first 2 years in Buffalo and the Bills just didn't play him enough.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’m excited about his upside. I like the edge he brings. His college experience was almost nil. Josh took some time and now people seem happy. Why can’t Knox get the same benefit of the doubt? They have the inexperience but edginess in common. 

 

Patience is a virtue. 

 

I doubt he'll ever be Kelce or Kittle... and thats OK.  I'm not of the opinion that a TE is turning this offense from top 10 to top 3.  To get there would mean improvements on the line IMO.  They've played better with feliciano in, but the run blocking has been a problem all year and it makes the team more one dimensional.  

 

They also need to clean up fumbles as a whole - Knox has a big 2.  But 15 total?  Plus 9 int's?  That's a lot of possessions lost.  

 

I'd say with the question marks around Sweeney, and with Kroft likely gone TE should be a mid round draft priority.  Maybe 1 of the 2 5ths.  

[Doc]

Just now, dneveu said:

I doubt he'll ever be Kelce or Kittle... and thats OK.  I'm not of the opinion that a TE is turning this offense from top 10 to top 3.  To get there would mean improvements on the line IMO.  They've played better with feliciano in, but the run blocking has been a problem all year and it makes the team more one dimensional.  

 

They also need to clean up fumbles as a whole - Knox has a big 2.  But 15 total?  Plus 9 int's?  That's a lot of possessions lost.  

 

I'd say with the question marks around Sweeney, and with Kroft likely gone TE should be a mid round draft priority.  Maybe 1 of the 2 5ths.  

 

Few players are.  There are maybe 1-2 in the league in any given year.  Previously it was Gonzalez.  Then Gates.  Then Goonk.  Now Kelce and Kittle, with Waller throwing his name in the ring.

[JGMcD2]

7 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

No, he's saying Thomas was already developed in those first 2 years in Buffalo and the Bills just didn't play him enough.

Considering he started playing TE in 2016 the year we signed him off the Lions practice squad and then couldn’t get reps over the dearth of offensive talent we had in 2017-2018... I’m going to go with “Highly Unlikely for $2000, Alex” 

 

But what IS highly likely, is that Mr. WEO knows more about where Logan Thomas was in his development process after two years at the age of 28 as a converted Tight End more so than the coaches who watched him every day during that time period 🥴

Edited December 17, 2020 by JGMcD2

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Doc said:

 

Few players are.  There are maybe 1-2 in the league in any given year.  Previously it was Gonzalez.  Then Gates.  Then Goonk.  Now Kelce and Kittle, with Waller throwing his name in the ring.

 

Right.  Kittle is a really solid blocker so for their PA/run game he's super valuable.  Also a load to tackle.  Kelce is insanely good, just such a matchup nightmare in the RZ and so much faster than he looks.  Waller's also a freak athlete.  

 

Also - none of those guys were drafted in the first round.  

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Development only happens in games and with targets? Practice doesn’t matter? Off-season work doesn’t matter? The majority of development happens in the off-season... in terms of actually getting better at the position. There’s not enough time to make significant corrections to movement patterns and deficiencies during the season. So the guy gets 1 real NFL off-season (his rookie year nonetheless) to improve as a NFL tight end, after that it’s not worth continuing to work with them. Really glad we decided to go that route with Josh! 
 

It’s probably the fact that Thomas has spent almost 4 years practicing at the professional level as a TE, with game experience on top of that and now things are finally falling into place for him this season ?

 

You’re equating development to targets... 

 

 

Yes.  Practice is important of course.  And the Bills are working with Knox after his one offseason of practice.  They did as much with Thomas too---and then they dumped him.

 

And there is only one starting QB, so the Josh comparison isn't a strong one--other than to prove that he would not be where he is today if he was relegated to "learning from the sidelines" his rookie year, as many here advocated.  All the "practice" in the world would not substitute for gameplay.

 

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

No, he's saying Thomas was already developed in those first 2 years in Buffalo and the Bills just didn't play him enough.

 

 

I said the opposite.  Reposted and highlighted on this page, even.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with this.  I've stayed out of this thread, although I tend to agree with the OP.  

 

If you think about it, maybe more so than any single player on the team, disappoints you on a regular basis.   He makes some really solid plays, but he fails to make plays much more often than he should.  

 

What you describe is exactly on the money - he's a really good athlete in some ways, but he doesn't have quality athletic skills finding and catching the ball.   It was clear last year, and I thought that it may have been just rookie inexperience.  We're past that now, and he still is badly inconsistent.  

 

It's always unfair to make comparisons with the best, but the best exhibit the kind of skills that you want.  Kelce and Gronk find the ball - they know it's combining and they find it, and when it gets to them, they catch it.  In Knox's case, I think it's mostly about finding it.  I think he looks for the ball late.   I think he's running so fast, and working so hard, that the added task of turning and finding the ball is physically too much for him.  I think a lot of this is he doesn't really understand the playbook.  A guy like Kelce, without looking, knows when the ball is going to come to him, knows when it will arrive, and therefore knows when to turn and look for it.  When Knox fails to catch the ball, it seems like he's surprised that the ball is there.  He shouldn't be surprised.  

 

His lack of awareness also evident in his fumble.   

 

He just seems like a kid who's really excited to be where he is and isn't really focused - in the way that most guys on the team are focused - on doing his job.   Kroft, who has less physical talent, has the focus.  

 

Part of his lack of focus may be due to lack of experience.  In college he was rarely asked to touch the ball.  Was reading an article the other days that stated Knox played in a college offense that didn't use the TE so he's very new to being asked to handle the ball.  TE is also one of the toughest positions to learn in the NFL too.  Couple these two things together plus throw in a couple injuries not surprising he is still struggling as he's also still learning.

 

Kroft is a FA this off season so will be interesting to see what they do there, if they bring him back, (and would he even want to come back to be inactive most games) it tells me they are still committed to Knox as the #1 TE another year.  Or do they sign another FA TE, there's a couple of decent ones that will be available.  Drafting one isn't the answer IMO as the team is ready to win now and doubt a rookie TE is going to step in and contribute that well regardless.  If there is a really good one ready to play form day 1, likely he'll be long gone by the time the Bills pick.

[Mr. WEO]

9 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Considering he started playing TE in 2016 the year we signed him off the Lions practice squad and then couldn’t get reps over the dearth of offensive talent we had in 2017-2018... I’m going to go with “Highly Unlikely for $2000, Alex” 

 

But what IS highly likely, is that Mr. WEO knows more about where Logan Thomas was in his development process after two years at the age of 28 as a converted Tight End more so than the coaches who watched him every day during that time period 🥴

 

 

No he didn't.  He was a preseason/backup QB/PS for the Giants in 2016.   He was cut in November.  He then called himself a TE and the Lions signed him to their PS.  2 days later the Bills signed him to the PS.  He played no TE in 2016.

 

Also, it hardly needs to be mentioned that coaching staffs err often.  

[JGMcD2]

12 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Yes.  Practice is important of course.  And the Bills are working with Knox after his one offseason of practice.  They did as much with Thomas too---and then they dumped him.

 

And there is only one starting QB, so the Josh comparison isn't a strong one--other than to prove that he would not be where he is today if he was relegated to "learning from the sidelines" his rookie year, as many here advocated.  All the "practice" in the world would not substitute for gameplay.

 

 

 

I said the opposite.  Reposted and highlighted on this page, even.  

Thomas was a 26 year old converted tight end they signed off of a practice squad and Knox was a 3rd round pick a year ago. The level of experience, age, investment all factor in to that. It’s not quite apples to apples. 
 

Two teams spent two years with Logan Thomas as a TE (BUF & DET) and neither felt it necessary to keep him. 
 

I would guess he’s settled into the position a bit more by now and the lack of receiving threats in WSH have given him more opportunities. Knox is like the 6-7th option right now in Buffalo. 
 

If anything your point (although flawed) about giving up on Thomas too soon is reason to continue to stick with Knox and not give up on him too soon. 

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

No he didn't.  He was a preseason/backup QB/PS for the Giants in 2016.   He was cut in November.  He then called himself a TE and the Lions signed him to their PS.  2 days later the Bills signed him to the PS.  He played no TE in 2016.

 

Also, it hardly needs to be mentioned that coaching staffs err often.  

Right, coaching staffs screw up often while being around these players 24/7 and studying them non-stop. 
 

Which makes it much more likely a guy who’s never seen Logan Thomas practice, has watched him in person less than, let’s say 5 times and has probably seen him less than 10 times knows more than a coaching staff and front office. 
 

EDIT: I acknowledge my error in Thomas’ history at the position with Detroit in 2016. 

Edited December 17, 2020 by JGMcD2

[ganesh]

13 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I'd probably say mediocre blocker and skiddish receiver.

 

His blocking is much worse than his receiving.  We usually just notice the drops more than the blocks.

I think he blocked Watt along with WIlliams just fine on Sunday night

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Of all fanbases, we should be the most understanding of the need for a player to develop.

 

Instead, we get "bag of donuts" threads which look completely foolish within 3 weeks, and this one, which personally I feel will look foolish by 2021.

 

No one wants to wait. All gas, no brakes.

[Victory Formation]

The problem with TEs is that they very rarely make it to 1,000 yards receiving or even 75 catches.. Surely it happens, but not a lot.. From a sheer production POV, I think WRs offer more production, which is why TEs are rarely taken in the first round.. 1,000 yards for a TE is elite, a 1,000 yards for a WR is decent.. Not saying that we couldn’t benefit from a great TE.. but I don’t think you necessarily need to go there in the first round.. If it’s really urgent I’d wait until RD2.. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

You’re equating development to targets... 

To your point: 

I’m far from done, but looking at film so far, Knox seems available underneath on a number of plays where the high DOD shot Josh takes doesn’t work.  

Hard for us to sort what’s up there.  Does Josh not trust Knox?  Does Josh not trust his arm to make that throw?  Does the Gunslinger mentality override the surer bet?  Is that not really part of the reads?

 

Dunno

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

Thomas was a 26 year old converted tight end they signed off of a practice squad and Knox was a 3rd round pick a year ago. The level of experience, age, investment all factor in to that. It’s not quite apples to apples. 
 

Two teams spent two years with Logan Thomas as a TE (BUF & DET) and neither felt it necessary to keep him. 
 

I would guess he’s settled into the position a bit more by now and the lack of receiving threats in WSH have given him more opportunities. Knox is like the 6-7th option right now in Buffalo. 
 

If anything your point (although flawed) about giving up on Thomas too soon is reason to continue to stick with Knox and not give up on him too soon. 

Right, coaching staffs screw up often while being around these players 24/7 and studying them non-stop. 
 

Which makes it much more likely a guy who’s never seen Logan Thomas practice, has watched him in person less than, let’s say 5 times and has probably seen him less than 10 times knows more than a coaching staff and front office. 
 

EDIT: I acknowledge my error in Thomas’ history at the position with Detroit in 2016. 

 

Detroit spent 1 year with Thomas, not 2.

 

There's a huge difference between claiming one knows more than the coaching staff about football.....and pointing out obvious errors based on what they saw and knew about a player.   A notorious recent example: McD spent endless hours and a season and 2 off seasons and a preseason before he determined that Nate Peterman "won" the QB competition with rookie Allen.  That was a predictable error and McD realized this halfway through the first game of the season.  Fans can point out obvious errors just fine.

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

To your point: 

I’m far from done, but looking at film so far, Knox seems available underneath on a number of plays where the high DOD shot Josh takes doesn’t work.  

Hard for us to sort what’s up there.  Does Josh not trust Knox?  Does Josh not trust his arm to make that throw?  Does the Gunslinger mentality override the surer bet?  Is that not really part of the reads?

 

Dunno

These are good questions.  It's clear that Josh trust Diggs, and Josh trust Beasley.   Josh needs a tight end he can trust to complete the picture.   He doesn't so much need a tight end who's a deep threat or who makes outstanding plays (although both are nice).  He has Diggs and Brown for that.  He needs a security blanket, which clearly is what Kelce is for Mahomes.  

 

Whether he and Knox can make Knox into that kind of guy, we'll see.  That would be awesome, because Knox's special talents make him someone you'd like to have on the field.  

[Victory Formation]

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

These are good questions.  It's clear that Josh trust Diggs, and Josh trust Beasley.   Josh needs a tight end he can trust to complete the picture.   He doesn't so much need a tight end who's a deep threat or who makes outstanding plays (although both are nice).  He has Diggs and Brown for that.  He needs a security blanket, which clearly is what Kelce is for Mahomes.  

 

Whether he and Knox can make Knox into that kind of guy, we'll see.  That would be awesome, because Knox's special talents make him someone you'd like to have on the field.  

As far as a security blanket is concerned, Cole Beasley is just that. I think your RBs should be used as such as well.. but no doubt we need a TE... just not in the 1st round..

[JGMcD2]

35 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Detroit spent 1 year with Thomas, not 2.

 

There's a huge difference between claiming one knows more than the coaching staff about football.....and pointing out obvious errors based on what they saw and knew about a player.   A notorious recent example: McD spent endless hours and a season and 2 off seasons and a preseason before he determined that Nate Peterman "won" the QB competition with rookie Allen.  That was a predictable error and McD realized this halfway through the first game of the season.  Fans can point out obvious errors just fine.

Yes, I corrected myself on Thomas already. 
 

So what you’re explaining to me is that in the 439 snaps Logan Thomas took in his two years in Buffalo, you watched all of them closely enough to determine at the end of 2017 and 2018 that he was going to be a productive tight end in the National Football League? If you have evidence of this, I’ll eat crow. Otherwise you’re capitalizing on him having a productive season.
 

That isn’t even really a great determination of if he’s a good player or not. In the scouting world guys are graded based on whether they’d be a consistent starter on a perennial playoff team. Now I understand Washington is leading their division (6-7) but they don’t actually fit that category. Do you really think Thomas is starting on a serious contender? 

This wasn’t an obvious error. The guy played TE in the organization for 3 years and didn’t show enough on two anemic offenses to warrant being brought back. Thomas’ production is a convenient intersection of lack of competition at his position, lack of weapons in Washington and being on a below average team. He’s the 3rd highest targeted player on the Redskins roster behind McLaurin and McKissic. He’s benefiting from getting ~20% of the target share in Washington. He’s not even that great now, 
 

 

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

To your point: 

I’m far from done, but looking at film so far, Knox seems available underneath on a number of plays where the high DOD shot Josh takes doesn’t work.  

Hard for us to sort what’s up there.  Does Josh not trust Knox?  Does Josh not trust his arm to make that throw?  Does the Gunslinger mentality override the surer bet?  Is that not really part of the reads?

 

Dunno

I mean, I can point out instances where Dawson has made mistakes and Josh goes right back to him the next play, next drive, later in the game. Miami earlier this season, Arizona, just recently against Pittsburgh. It’s probably a mix of everything you said above... I’d rather throw to Diggs, Beasley, Brown and Davis before I look to hit Knox. 
 

But... in terms of actually measuring the development of a player, in-game targets is an absolutely silly way of showing a player’s progress. The whole Logan Thomas/Knox comparison is evidence of that. 
 

“Oh Knox doesn’t have a lot of targets but look at Thomas, he does. He’s obviously developed. Should have kept him.” 
 

Well, Thomas is one of the primary targets in DC because they lack offensive talent. I think we’d all be pretty pissed if Dawson Knox was getting more targets than Diggs, Brown, Beasley, and Davis. Josh just doesn’t use tight ends because right now he has 4 better options... it’s not like he was peppering Kroft when he was active either. 

[TheFunPolice]

I think Knox is just a young player who needs to continue to develop. 

 

He has the physical tools to be good. I tend to not pay too much attention to dropped passes. These are NFL pass catchers. Guys go through patches of drops sometimes. Knox will get that figured out. 

 

Now, that said, I would get another TE in the draft or free agency to get another guy in the system. I also like Lee Smith as the blocker/attitude guy. 

 

Not everyone is Diggs or Brown or Beasley. We are VERY lucky to have all 3. When those guys drop a pass (which seems like never) it sticks out because it's so unusual. You almost are OK with it, because it means that was their drop for the next 6 games. But as we should know, that's not necessarily the norm in the NFL. 

Edited December 17, 2020 by TheFunPolice

[Doc]

10 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

May or may not happen. Either way, he sucks....

 

His fumbles are a concern, but give him enough targets and he can at least be as productive as Thomas.

[TheFunPolice]

Wasn't Knox seen as a raw prospect that would need time to develop?

 

He has missed a handful of games this season due to COVID and injury, but he has a couple of TD catches and a 10 yard average per catch. 

 

Sure, you would like to see more productivity, but when you have Diggs, Brown, Beasley, and even Davis really coming on strong, it's not surprising he is a bit down on the list of targets for Allen. 

 

 

[JGMcD2]

21 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Wasn't Knox seen as a raw prospect that would need time to develop?

 

He has missed a handful of games this season due to COVID and injury, but he has a couple of TD catches and a 10 yard average per catch. 

 

Sure, you would like to see more productivity, but when you have Diggs, Brown, Beasley, and even Davis really coming on strong, it's not surprising he is a bit down on the list of targets for Allen. 

 

 

Yes.

 

Dawson Knox is a traits-based prospect who could be developed into a nice up-the-seam target and red-zone threat. While he's not as athletic as the other top tight ends in the class, he's fast enough to be a problem for defenses and has developmental upside.

 

Dawson Knox is a challenging study because he has all of the needed tools to be a great TE prospect, but his conditions at the college level were as unenviable as you'll find. Knox was a non-priority in the passing game and runs a pretty vanilla set of routes in addition to being a high variance blocker in both pass game and run game alike. Knox will require patience, he isn't a player that will step into a contributing role immediately in the NFL.

 

A high school quarterback, Knox transitioned to tight end at Ole Miss but never became a prominent component of the passing game. With that said, there have been exciting flashes as a receiver although they are few and far between. There is considerable work needed as a route runner for Knox to find success catching the football at the next level, not to mention so inconsistency with his hands to clean up. As a blocker, Knox is more developed and has upside both on the move and in-line. Knox is a project, but he can be a worthy one to invest in. He has the ceiling of a quality TE2 and potential starter in time but patience is required.

All of the traits are there to be a no. 1 tight end for a team in the NFL, but the only area Knox really improved in this past season was blocking, and his skill set as a receiver still needs considerable work. Knox's landing spot is critical to his pro outlook as he has only spent two seasons at the tight end position, and in the pre-draft timeframe, trust will be a big part of the evaluation. A la George Kittle, Knox has the tangible and intangible traits you take a risk on developing in the 40-70 range of the draft despite his lack of usage as a receiver in college.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 17, 2020 by JGMcD2

[Hapless Bills Fan]

55 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I mean, I can point out instances where Dawson has made mistakes and Josh goes right back to him the next play, next drive, later in the game. Miami earlier this season, Arizona, just recently against Pittsburgh. It’s probably a mix of everything you said above... I’d rather throw to Diggs, Beasley, Brown and Davis before I look to hit Knox.

 

Of course you would, on that last.  But kind of missing the point I was getting at, perhaps? 

 

In the football chess match, opposing defenses will always clamp down on the stuff you want more, and leave you the stuff they perceive you as unable, unwilling, or disinterested in taking, right?  That's why we have sometimes seen Diggs and Beasley draped like they're Christmas trees and DBs are tinsel, Davis well covered, while Knox and Singletary enjoy a relatively spacious solitude.  So how does that change?  Obviously, if Brown is back in the lineup and we're running a 1-0 set, the defense has a tinsel shortage.  Without Brown?  If we throw to Knox and Singletary and they manage to get 5-10 yds per toss, the defense may decide to distribute the tinsel a bit differently.  (I know you know this, just context).

 

Those "bunnies" - the short throws over the middle - have been a known problem to Josh since forever.  He missed them at Wyoming. He missed them at his pro day.  He missed them his first year in Buffalo, both in practice footage and games.  He improved last year, but still missed them in games sometimes, notably early on when perhaps he was "tight" or pressured. 

 

Early this season, when he took those shots, he was deadly.  Then for a period of time, they were bad again - after the LV injury I think.  And missing those throws over the middle high or wide is potentially a Very Bad Day, right?  That's what the pick off Roberts was, a throw that should have hit him in the breadbasket but was slightly behind and high.  Similar high miss to Beas early in the Pitts game but Beas had sense enough not to risk deflecting it for a pick.

 

On the other hand, when they were on-target or at least readily catchable...those "bunnies" were the very species of throw Knox had most trouble with.  Could hit him right in the hands at waist level and "whoopsie!" 😬

 

So sure - when Josh is "on tonight, you know my hips don't lie" like he was in Arizona and Beasley is 11 of 13, Diggs is 10 of 10 like the 'Zona game or Beas 9 of 11 and Diggs 10 of 10 like SF, we'd all rather see him throw to Beasley or Diggs.  But when he's under pressure like Pitts or at times San Diego and Beasley is 5 of 10, Diggs 10 of 14, maybe a few throws should go elsewhere.  And that's when that QB-TE hookup needs to work - whatever is amiss with it.

 

Sometimes I feel Knox is in the wrong place for Josh.  I wish someone who knows more routes would look at this - I'm looking at geometry.  I want Knox positioned where if Josh misses him, it "does no harm" and where there's a clear throwing lane.  I don't know what's up there when I don't see that.

 

And I don't know what's up with Kroft not getting more looks - I'm still working on my "Beluga Whale Hunt" to see what Kroft's doing too.

 

Quote

But... in terms of actually measuring the development of a player, in-game targets is an absolutely silly way of showing a player’s progress. The whole Logan Thomas/Knox comparison is evidence of that. 

 

I'm never big on comparisons to former players. 

 

To be clear, I don't want Knox to go.  Foolishness.  He's on a rookie deal, why wouldn't we keep him and see if he develops?   But I wanted the Bills to take a shot at an upgrade last year (more than Greg Olsen) and I still want that, because I think that big tough outlet target over the middle is a missing piece to our game and Beasley, who gets used that way at times even though he's a small tough target, doesn't quite fill the need.  Lee Smith isn't it, and Kroft doesn't seem to be either. 

 

But part of me wonders if the problem isn't the players at that position, it's the decision process in the guy making the throws.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yes.

 

Dawson Knox is a traits-based prospect who could be developed into a nice up-the-seam target and red-zone threat. While he's not as athletic as the other top tight ends in the class, he's fast enough to be a problem for defenses and has developmental upside.

 

Dawson Knox is a challenging study because he has all of the needed tools to be a great TE prospect, but his conditions at the college level were as unenviable as you'll find. Knox was a non-priority in the passing game and runs a pretty vanilla set of routes in addition to being a high variance blocker in both pass game and run game alike. Knox will require patience, he isn't a player that will step into a contributing role immediately in the NFL.

 

A high school quarterback, Knox transitioned to tight end at Ole Miss but never became a prominent component of the passing game. With that said, there have been exciting flashes as a receiver although they are few and far between. There is considerable work needed as a route runner for Knox to find success catching the football at the next level, not to mention so inconsistency with his hands to clean up. As a blocker, Knox is more developed and has upside both on the move and in-line. Knox is a project, but he can be a worthy one to invest in. He has the ceiling of a quality TE2 and potential starter in time but patience is required.

All of the traits are there to be a no. 1 tight end for a team in the NFL, but the only area Knox really improved in this past season was blocking, and his skill set as a receiver still needs considerable work. Knox's landing spot is critical to his pro outlook as he has only spent two seasons at the tight end position, and in the pre-draft timeframe, trust will be a big part of the evaluation. A la George Kittle, Knox has the tangible and intangible traits you take a risk on developing in the 40-70 range of the draft despite his lack of usage as a receiver in college.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting that the comparison is kittle there at the end (simply as an athletic upside player comparison, with little production).  And Kittle didn't have Metcalf and AJ brown at WR either.  

[Mr. WEO]

52 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yes, I corrected myself on Thomas already. 
 

So what you’re explaining to me is that in the 439 snaps Logan Thomas took in his two years in Buffalo, you watched all of them closely enough to determine at the end of 2017 and 2018 that he was going to be a productive tight end in the National Football League? If you have evidence of this, I’ll eat crow. Otherwise you’re capitalizing on him having a productive season.
 

That isn’t even really a great determination of if he’s a good player or not. In the scouting world guys are graded based on whether they’d be a consistent starter on a perennial playoff team. Now I understand Washington is leading their division (6-7) but they don’t actually fit that category. Do you really think Thomas is starting on a serious contender? 

This wasn’t an obvious error. The guy played TE in the organization for 3 years and didn’t show enough on two anemic offenses to warrant being brought back. Thomas’ production is a convenient intersection of lack of competition at his position, lack of weapons in Washington and being on a below average team. He’s the 3rd highest targeted player on the Redskins roster behind McLaurin and McKissic. He’s benefiting from getting ~20% of the target share in Washington. He’s not even that great now, 
 

 

 

And then you repeated the error by saying he played 2 years in Detroit....and, now,  in the (Buffalo) "organization"  for "3 years".  You're all over the place.

 

 

 

Anyway...." In the scouting world guys are graded based on whether they’d be a consistent starter on a perennial playoff team" makes absolutely no sense. Bad teams want good players, don't they?  So they won't be as bad anymore? They don't "scout" players?  Players are only "graded" in regard to whether they would be a consistent starter on a "serious contender"? lol, OK.

 

And yes, he's benefitting from being on a lacking receiving corp.  Amazing how that can work, right?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Of course you would, on that last.  But kind of missing the point I was getting at, perhaps? 

 

In the football chess match, opposing defenses will always clamp down on the stuff you want more, and leave you the stuff they perceive you as unable, unwilling, or disinterested in taking, right?  That's why we have sometimes seen Diggs and Beasley draped like they're Christmas trees and DBs are tinsel, Davis well covered, while Knox and Singletary enjoy a relatively spacious solitude.  So how does that change?  Obviously, if Brown is back in the lineup and we're running a 1-0 set, the defense has a tinsel shortage.  Without Brown?  If we throw to Knox and Singletary and they manage to get 5-10 yds per toss, the defense may decide to distribute the tinsel a bit differently.  (I know you know this, just context).

 

Those "bunnies" - the short throws over the middle - have been a known problem to Josh since forever.  He missed them at Wyoming. He missed them at his pro day.  He missed them his first year in Buffalo, both in practice footage and games.  He improved last year, but still missed them in games sometimes, notably early on when perhaps he was "tight" or pressured. 

 

Early this season, when he took those shots, he was deadly.  Then for a period of time, they were bad again - after the LV injury I think.  And missing those throws over the middle high or wide is potentially a Very Bad Day, right?  That's what the pick off Roberts was, a throw that should have hit him in the breadbasket but was slightly behind and high.  Similar high miss to Beas early in the Pitts game but Beas had sense enough not to risk deflecting it for a pick.

 

On the other hand, when they were on-target or at least readily catchable...those "bunnies" were the very species of throw Knox had most trouble with.  Could hit him right in the hands at waist level and "whoopsie!" 😬

 

So sure - when Josh is "on tonight, you know my hips don't lie" like he was in Arizona and Beasley is 11 of 13, Diggs is 10 of 10 like the 'Zona game or Beas 9 of 11 and Diggs 10 of 10 like SF, we'd all rather see him throw to Beasley or Diggs.  But when he's under pressure like Pitts or at times San Diego and Beasley is 5 of 10, Diggs 10 of 14, maybe a few throws should go elsewhere.  And that's when that QB-TE hookup needs to work - whatever is amiss with it.

 

Sometimes I feel Knox is in the wrong place for Josh.  I wish someone who knows more routes would look at this - I'm looking at geometry.  I want Knox positioned where if Josh misses him, it "does no harm" and where there's a clear throwing lane.  I don't know what's up there when I don't see that.

 

 

I'm never big on comparisons to former players. 

 

 

 

Yeah, i felt like Pitt was a game you'd think he'd have done more.  Getting behind the backers in a zone blitz look.  I'm not sure if they just don't have that trust there yet - but it seems like daboll has him heading out to the boundaries more often.

[Mat68]

I think he has average starter upside.  His lack of college success put him behind.  I would like Buffalo to target Pitts or Faruemuth or Jordan in rd 1.  Now as a wing/hback i think Knox would be dangerous.  

[JGMcD2]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

And then you repeated the error by saying he played 2 years in Detroit....and, now,  in the (Buffalo) "organization"  for "3 years".  You're all over the place.

 

 

 

Anyway...." In the scouting world guys are graded based on whether they’d be a consistent starter on a perennial playoff team" makes absolutely no sense. Bad teams want good players, don't they?  So they won't be as bad anymore? They don't "scout" players?  Players are only "graded" in regard to whether they would be a consistent starter on a "serious contender"? lol, OK.

 

And yes, he's benefitting from being on a lacking receiving corp.  Amazing how that can work, right?

I didn’t repeat it, I put a note at the end of my post as an edit. I didn’t repeat it... I acknowledged my mistake. I mean he was in the Buffalo organization for 3 years, the obvious correction to him not being in Detroit for more than two days was to recognize he moved to Buffalo for the remainder of 2016 (Practice squad) and the 2017 and 2018 on the active roster.

 

I mean you can laugh all you want or you can try and learn something. I’ve worked in scouting... I’ve spent time in pro baseball and a cup of coffee in pro football all before turning 24. This is all stuff I’ve learned from scouting directors and general managers... I didn’t make it up on my own, it’s from folks who have been doing it much longer than I have. 
 

It’s taken into account whether a guy is starting and producing because he’s actually good or just benefitting from being a decent player on a bad team and getting more opportunities than he would on a good team. Of course bad teams want good players, all I am telling you is when you’re trying to grade players against each other and you’re looking at production you have to factor in the circumstances. That all weighs heavily in the evaluation in professional scouting. 
 

So at the end you ultimately acknowledge my overall point after arguing with me about it prior? You did this earlier with other people... kind of confusing.

[Ya Digg?]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

These are good questions.  It's clear that Josh trust Diggs, and Josh trust Beasley.   Josh needs a tight end he can trust to complete the picture.   He doesn't so much need a tight end who's a deep threat or who makes outstanding plays (although both are nice).  He has Diggs and Brown for that.  He needs a security blanket, which clearly is what Kelce is for Mahomes.  

 

Whether he and Knox can make Knox into that kind of guy, we'll see.  That would be awesome, because Knox's special talents make him someone you'd like to have on the field.  

Sorry I know that I'm nitpicking, but are you calling Kelce nothing more than a security blanket for Mahomes?  The guy who leads the entire league in receiving yards (as a tight end no less) is much more than a security blanket....should probably think of a different tight end than Kelce if you're looking for just a security blanket.  If he's not the top tight end in the league, he's a very close second to Kittle

[JGMcD2]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

But part of me wonders if the problem isn't the players at that position, it's the decision process in the guy making the throws.

I’m not disregarding the earlier parts of your posts they’re just so well written, I don’t really much to say other than great job.

 

I mentioned it late in my previous post... Josh just doesn’t target his tight ends a lot. He’s comfortable going to his WR. I’m honestly curious how many targets his TE get in the RZ because it feels like that’s where he goes after them the most.  
 

Could it also be that our offense isn’t set up to feed the ball to a TE? I know we often like to link Daboll to NE a little bit but their TE usage didn’t really ramp up until around 2006 with Ben Watson. Prior to that it was WR heavy with TE getting 23, 40 and 63 targets in the years prior. Obviously we remember the Gronk and Hernandez offenses the most, but TE wasn’t always a major emphasis there either. Idk... now I’m just blabbering with no real direction.

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I didn’t repeat it, I put a note at the end of my post as an edit. I didn’t repeat it... I acknowledged my mistake. I mean he was in the Buffalo organization for 3 years, the obvious correction to him not being in Detroit for more than two days was to recognize he moved to Buffalo for the remainder of 2016 (Practice squad) and the 2017 and 2018 on the active roster.

 

I mean you can laugh all you want or you can try and learn something. I’ve worked in scouting... I’ve spent time in pro baseball and a cup of coffee in pro football all before turning 24. This is all stuff I’ve learned from scouting directors and general managers... I didn’t make it up on my own, it’s from folks who have been doing it much longer than I have. 
 

It’s taken into account whether a guy is starting and producing because he’s actually good or just benefitting from being a decent player on a bad team and getting more opportunities than he would on a good team. Of course bad teams want good players, all I am telling you is when you’re trying to grade players against each other and you’re looking at production you have to factor in the circumstances. That all weighs heavily in the evaluation in professional scouting. 
 

So at the end you ultimately acknowledge my overall point after arguing with me about it prior? You did this earlier with other people... kind of confusing.

I think Thomas' production in Buffalo would be similar to Knox.  I dont think you could excpect no more than 4-5 targets a game.  I think vs Pitts Thomas was around 12. 

 

An earlier poster had a draft breakdown of Knox.  Basically, he had the upside of an average starter on a playoff team.  That raised the question dont bad teams want good players etc.  The differance in target share is why.  The football team has a lack of offensive talent.  Thomas is getting usage he would not get elsewhere.  Knox is 22 or 23?  Thomas is 30?  Who do you want going forward?

[Mr. WEO]

47 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I didn’t repeat it, I put a note at the end of my post as an edit. I didn’t repeat it... I acknowledged my mistake. I mean he was in the Buffalo organization for 3 years, the obvious correction to him not being in Detroit for more than two days was to recognize he moved to Buffalo for the remainder of 2016 (Practice squad) and the 2017 and 2018 on the active roster.

 

I mean you can laugh all you want or you can try and learn something. I’ve worked in scouting... I’ve spent time in pro baseball and a cup of coffee in pro football all before turning 24. This is all stuff I’ve learned from scouting directors and general managers... I didn’t make it up on my own, it’s from folks who have been doing it much longer than I have. 
 

It’s taken into account whether a guy is starting and producing because he’s actually good or just benefitting from being a decent player on a bad team and getting more opportunities than he would on a good team. Of course bad teams want good players, all I am telling you is when you’re trying to grade players against each other and you’re looking at production you have to factor in the circumstances. That all weighs heavily in the evaluation in professional scouting. 
 

So at the end you ultimately acknowledge my overall point after arguing with me about it prior? You did this earlier with other people... kind of confusing.

he was on the PS squad for a month in 2016,  so stop with that 3 season stuff!

 

But no,  I’ll again go record that I am not agreeing with you in any of the above so far

[Solomon Grundy]

48 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Sorry I know that I'm nitpicking, but are you calling Kelce nothing more than a security blanket for Mahomes?  The guy who leads the entire league in receiving yards (as a tight end no less) is much more than a security blanket....should probably think of a different tight end than Kelce if you're looking for just a security blanket.  If he's not the top tight end in the league, he's a very close second to Kittle

He really is Mahomes security blanket. Just look at some of the plays from the Dolphins game. When nothing was there, while scrambling, Mahomes threw balls towards Kelce and he made the plays against his defenders. Those plays kept drives going. Josh tried that a couple of times with Knox in the Steelers game and no bueno. Not saying Kelce is not a weapon, but definitely a security blanket 

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

And yes, he's benefitting from being on a lacking receiving corp.  Amazing how that can work, right?

This is literally agreeing with me in my entire premise which you laughed at and tried to pick apart... 
 

Now it’s up to you to decipher if he’s actually good or benefiting from a lacking receiving corps...

 

I will use another example... was Robert Foster good or did he benefit from a lacking receiving corps?

 

The Robert Foster #1 receiver argument was the same thing... it was dumb then and it’s dumb now. He was lucky that there was literally nobody else to throw to and the second actual upgrades arrived in the form of John Brown and Cole Beasley he went nearly unused and was rendered useless upon the arrival of Diggs and Davis. Perfect example of a player on a bad team putting up decent numbers solely because the team is bad, not because they’re a NFL starting caliber player. It’s the same concept. 

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

he was on the PS squad for a month in 2016,  so stop with that 3 season stuff!

 

But no,  I’ll again go record that I am not agreeing with you in any of the above so far

Got it. Only a month in 2016... so it’s just 2 seasons. 

[Solomon Grundy]

I’d love to see Josh with a TE like Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki or even Mark Andrews.

[Mat68]

Knox is athletic for the position.  Adding another plus recieving threat would be a good idea.  Makes Buffalo more multiple.  If Ertz leaves Philly thats interesting but expensive.  Late round 1 I think Buffalo can get one of the top Tes.  This years crop is pretty good on top.  Pitts from Fl, Jordan from the U and Farimuth from PSU would all would be good value there.  Idk how Buffalo values Te to draft one that high might not happen.  

[Solomon Grundy]

4 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Knox is athletic for the position.  Adding another plus recieving threat would be a good idea.  Makes Buffalo more multiple.  If Ertz leaves Philly thats interesting but expensive.  Late round 1 I think Buffalo can get one of the top Tes.  This years crop is pretty good on top.  Pitts from Fl, Jordan from the U and Farimuth from PSU would all would be good value there.  Idk how Buffalo values Te to draft one that high might not happen.  

It’s a deep TE draft overall. I’ve been watching some replays of Dawson Knox and it seems to me like he has trouble tracking the football in the air. Some of the angles he takes towards the ball in flight is baffling 

[Mat68]

Just now, Solomon Grundy said:

It’s a deep TE draft overall. I’ve been watching some replays of Dawson Knox and it seems to me like he has trouble tracking the football in the air. Some of the angles he takes towards the ball in flight is baffling 

Knox not having usage in college or high school makes that a skill he may never have.  Not many Te's though have it.  I feel the guys I listed are better in that area but are not elite.  

[Solomon Grundy]

12 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Knox is athletic for the position.  Adding another plus recieving threat would be a good idea.  Makes Buffalo more multiple.  If Ertz leaves Philly thats interesting but expensive.  Late round 1 I think Buffalo can get one of the top Tes.  This years crop is pretty good on top.  Pitts from Fl, Jordan from the U and Farimuth from PSU would all would be good value there.  Idk how Buffalo values Te to draft one that high might not happen.  

I like Charlie Kolar from Iowa State and Kenny Yeboah from Ole Miss around rd 3