Top Drafting Teams in the NFL

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I’d say the Steelers are at the top. They hit on nearly every first rounder for over a decade:

 

2003 - Polamalu

2004 - Roethlisberger

2005 - Heath Miller

2006 - Santonio Holmes

2007 - Timmons

2008 - Mendenhall (miss)

2009 - Ziggy Hood

2010 - Pouncey

2011 - Heyward

2012 - DeCastro

2013 - Jarvis Jones (miss)

2014 - Shazier

2015 - Bud Dupree

2016 - Artie Burns

2017 - T.J Watt

2018 - Terrell Edmunds

2019 - Devin Bush

2020 - Minkah Fitzpatrick/Chase Claypool

 

You can put that up against any organization. The Steelers hit on nearly every high pick they have. 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

11 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

I know some fans are willing to label guys busts after less than two seasons, but I'm not. You have to give these guys time to develop.

 

 

Well yep.......tell it to those dudes.

 

The point of my post was to point out that modest success in a rookie season........which is often graded on a curve anyway.........does not consistently translate into better or even similar results in year 2 or thereafter.

 

I'm not saying Gabe Davis or Zach Moss or Devin Singletary Dawson Knox will become complete busts........... but if they do you will get over it quick just like you no doubt did when Robert Foster blew out like a dud bottle rocket.    

 

The draft will keep importing hope and coaches will keep giving rookies too many snaps because they fell in love with their tape and they are cheap.........and as @NoSaint pointed out........fans will read too much into those rookies getting PT and expect they will all only improve.

Edited December 2, 2020 by BADOLBILZ

[NickelCity]

I think Oliver is a stud. It's cliche at this point, but watch what happens when he plays in position, next to a 1-tech.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I’d say the Steelers are at the top. They hit on nearly every first rounder for over a decade:

 

2003 - Polamalu

2004 - Roethlisberger

2005 - Heath Miller

2006 - Santonio Holmes

2007 - Timmons

2008 - Mendenhall (miss)

2009 - Ziggy Hood

2010 - Pouncey

2011 - Heyward

2012 - DeCastro

2013 - Jarvis Jones (miss)

2014 - Shazier

2015 - Bud Dupree

2016 - Artie Burns

2017 - T.J Watt

2018 - Terrell Edmunds

2019 - Devin Bush

2020 - Minkah Fitzpatrick/Chase Claypool

 

You can put that up against any organization. The Steelers hit on nearly every high pick they have. 

 

 

 

Yes they are excellent at the draft.

 

Helps so much to have an ownership group that has been made up of football people for most of the past 50 years..........a lot less trial and error in their management/coaching decisions.

 

That stability in ownership has helped the Steelers maintain their identities on both sides of the ball for a very long time........which makes drafting so much easier.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

I think Oliver is a stud. It's cliche at this point, but watch what happens when he plays in position, next to a 1-tech.

 

 

 

When you wish upon (a 31-32 year old) Star................🤩

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

When you wish upon (a 31-32 year old) Star................🤩

 

So Harrison Phillips played 25% of the snaps against the Chargers.

 

Anyone do a Horrible Harry watch?

[NoSaint]

18 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes they are excellent at the draft.

 

Helps so much to have an ownership group that has been made up of football people for most of the past 50 years..........a lot less trial and error in their management/coaching decisions.

 

That stability in ownership has helped the Steelers maintain their identities on both sides of the ball for a very long time........which makes drafting so much easier.

 

one of the things that made bringing in Rex so maddening. Every time we stocked the shelf we would light it in fire for no apparent reason.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So Harrison Phillips played 25% of the snaps against the Chargers.

 

Anyone do a Horrible Harry watch?

 

 

He looked like Star..........didn't make any sudden movements or tackles.......but better than a typical Star-lead result and for 5 cents on the dollar.....3.2 ypc by Chargers.

 

All Star jokes aside..........success in run defense is primarily want-to and execution.......we have seen improvement of late and I'd attribute much of it there.......they are better at the point of attack.

 

The Bills current run defense is allowing 4.7 ypc........up from last season at this time but improving........and right in between where last season's SB matchup Niners(4.5) and Chiefs (4.9) finished in 2019.

 

 

 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Well yep.......tell it to those dudes.

 

The point of my post was to point out that modest success in a rookie season........which is often graded on a curve anyway.........does not consistently translate into better or even similar results in year 2 or thereafter.

 

I'm not saying Gabe Davis or Zach Moss or Devin Singletary Dawson Knox will become complete busts........... but if they do you will get over it quick just like you no doubt did when Robert Foster blew out like a dud bottle rocket.    

 

The draft will keep importing hope and coaches will keep giving rookies too many snaps because they fell in love with their tape and they are cheap.........and as @NoSaint pointed out........fans will read too much into those rookies getting PT and expect they will all only improve.

Robert Foster was an undrafted rookie free agent. Not really a good comparison.

[BADOLBILZ]

52 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

one of the things that made bringing in Rex so maddening. Every time we stocked the shelf we would light it in fire for no apparent reason.

 

 

My personal favorite was drafting and developing a 34 defense for 22 years and when it finally has reached the point where it is the identity of a perennial playoff franchise and they have the best NT in the game...........they hire Greggo and dump Ted Washington and the 34.

 

It cratered the on field product of the franchise and they spent a fortune trying to get back what they had and it set in motion all the failure to come.

 

The Bills could have done what the Steelers did..........ironically it was a former Steeler GM that wrecked it.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

Robert Foster was an undrafted rookie free agent. Not really a good comparison.

 

Foster was a rookie who put up 540 yards in just 43% of the teams snaps.....20 yards per catch........he was projecting as a potential WR1.......then poof!  Zilch.

 

THAT 2018 draft and UDFA class looked very deep and promising in their rookie years too..........since then they look like two first round starters and a bunch of spare parts.

 

Except of course for Wyatt Teller who they regrettably dealt to Cleveland.

[Chaos]

The teams that draft in the final five spots consistently are the best at drafting.

[Kenosha2Buffalo]

On 11/23/2020 at 6:04 PM, Victory Formation said:

The Packers have always been ridiculously good at drafting QBs over the years.. Starr, Favre and Rodgers.. Steelers always seem to do well too.. Ravens obviously with Ozzie Newsome who was fantastic.. 

 

They have missed on just about every other pick for years now. Ted thompson was a terrible gm. Arguably the worst draft this year of all teams, ironically after they fired ted.

[Bill from NYC]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Foster was a rookie who put up 540 yards in just 43% of the teams snaps.....20 yards per catch........he was projecting as a potential WR1.......then poof!  Zilch.

 

THAT 2018 draft and UDFA class looked very deep and promising in their rookie years too..........since then they look like two first round starters and a bunch of spare parts.

 

Except of course for Wyatt Teller who they regrettably dealt to Cleveland.

In college, Foster wasn't really a starting wr, and he lacked exceptional moves. I could name probably 6 or 7 Alabama receivers who had better moves. What Foster DID have was blinding speed. I suppose the NFL quickly caught on to this, played him deep, and took away his game.

[machine gun kelly]

On 11/23/2020 at 7:08 PM, Victory Formation said:

Oops! 

Victory, that’s an easy mistake so no worries bud.  For a point of reference, it was a trade with Hotlanta where he wasn’t really doing anything.  The above posts have nailed it.  Steelers, Packers, Ravens, Chiefs, and I would add the Hawks.  My reasoning on the Hawks, they have drafted pretty well with LBers, obviously Russel Wilson, and Metcalf.  I just like how Carrol is not afraid to take chances.  
 

To the OP, you seem to be sincere not trying to turn this into a Beane bashing thread, and I appreciate it.  I like what Beane has done these last few years, and reminds me of Polian.  Not comparing the two, but Polian used to say on Late Hits on his weekly spot he tracked his drafts from the beginning.  It was a somewhat vague response, but this HOF GM building three different teams stated his hit rate on drafting players was 57%.  I respect that guy, and what he did for the Bills, Panthers, and Colts was amazing.

 

So I guess my point is not scoring on every pick is not necessarily a bad thing as long as you hit more than miss.  The one thing bad teams do is trying to be good too fast by buying expensive free agents and they don’t fit into a scheme approach.  A good example is it isn’t a drafting one, but what has OBJ done for Cleveland?  Not a lot because they didn’t have an overarching strategy.  The teams above seem to draft the best players, and know what they want their team to look like.  They have an approach and vision.  It’s not by accident, the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Packers, and I would add us these last three years have fielded competitive teams.

[BobbyC81]

On 11/23/2020 at 1:45 PM, JGMcD2 said:

Sorry for starting another thread today, I don’t often start threads and don’t plan on doing so regularly, but I’d like some feedback on this topic to better form my own opinion. 

 

A lot of posters on here declare that Brandon Beane is an average drafter, which is fine, I think he’s slightly above average. I’m not really here to debate Beane. 
 

I’d like to get an understanding of what GMs people believe are elite drafters (Top 5ish), who’s above average (Top 10ish) and then who else is average?

 

How do you measure the success of the draft? How many drafts does a GM need to run to be able to judge them? Do ESPN/3rd party sources rankings factor into your definition of a good draft? 
 

Examples are helpful. 
 

EDIT: I will follow up here with some of my current opinion. I don’t think anyone in the NFL is particularly an elite drafter. Pittsburgh would be the only organization that comes straight to my head. 
 

My point there is if there’s only 1 elite drafting GM/organization and the rest are “average” it doesn’t really work that way. Mathematically average is taking everyone’s performance into account.. everyone can’t be average... they’re compared to each other... 

 

Do folks see where I am going? 

 

Since the NFL has a yearly Combine, which all teams attend, the results of drafts are more influenced by luck and player development than drafting ability of the GMs.   Having said that, it’s the picks where GMs think they’re smarter than everyone else that gets them in trouble.  Drafting for need and taking a player earlier than expected (Ex: QBs Chris Ponder and EJ Manuel in the first half of the first round) usually doesn’t work out.

 

Still a team’s developed philosophy in drafting players can also make a difference if they stick to it.  If a team’s philosophy is to stay away from knuckleheads and prima donnas, that will probably benefit them in the long run in maybe having less draft busts. 

 

I still don’t know how the Raiders didn’t ask the right questions in interviewing JaMarcus Russell to realize he was a knucklehead.  Maybe asking him where he expected to be in 5 years would’ve resulted in an answer of “being rich and kicking back drinking me some purple”

[SoCal Deek]

While it’s interesting to look back and see who’s drafted ‘well’, the most important stat of course is winning. You can draft for need or for BPA but it makes little difference if doesn’t result in W’s. Looking at the Bills, none of their current success would be happening with Tyrod or Peterman at QB. And alongside that, the opposite could be said about their receivers. With the exception of Gabriel Davis, all have come to Buffalo via free agency.

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

He looked like Star..........didn't make any sudden movements or tackles.......but better than a typical Star-lead result and for 5 cents on the dollar.....3.2 ypc by Chargers.

 

All Star jokes aside..........success in run defense is primarily want-to and execution.......we have seen improvement of late and I'd attribute much of it there.......they are better at the point of attack.

 

The Bills current run defense is allowing 4.7 ypc........up from last season at this time but improving........and right in between where last season's SB matchup Niners(4.5) and Chiefs (4.9) finished in 2019.

 

 

 

Like hell he looked like Star. Star is vastly better at what McDermott needs from a 1-tech. Before the injury Harry looked like he eventually could be a good one, maybe. Since the injury, not close. None of the 1-techs we have are anywhere near as good as Star at keeping the blockers off the LBs.

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, Chaos said:

The teams that draft in the final five spots consistently are the best at drafting.

 

 

In one sentence, maybe that's close to the best that can be done. The best teams are nearly always the best drafters.

 

One problem that I see  in this thread - having read only the first and last pages - is that it's not clear whether we're talking about now or over the long term. Over the long term you're often looking at guys who aren't there anymore. Ozzie is gone. How good are the new Ravens guys going to be? Hard to be sure, really.

 

Are you looking at the guys who are in control around the league now? If so, many to most are too new to say with much surety. 

 

Beane looks significantly above average but not elite (the 2017 draft looks very strong with three foundational guys but no Beane, the 2018 also looks good with two foundational guys, one guy who appears to be foundational for Cleveland, in Teller, and the 3rd and 4th rounders not clear yet in Harrison and Taron Johnson, the 2019 draft looking pretty good so far with Oliver, Ford and Singletary good bargains, Knox underachieving so far but with potential and the two Johnsons and Sweeney looking solid, and the 2020 group looking OK to good so far for a draft without a 1st rounder but really it's too early to know) but it's hard to say for sure. People want to avoid the obvious ... that you can't really judge thoroughly without waiting for three years or so.

 

And Beane's first draft was two and a half years ago.

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

My personal favorite was drafting and developing a 34 defense for 22 years and when it finally has reached the point where it is the identity of a perennial playoff franchise and they have the best NT in the game...........they hire Greggo and dump Ted Washington and the 34.

 

It cratered the on field product of the franchise and they spent a fortune trying to get back what they had and it set in motion all the failure to come.

 

The Bills could have done what the Steelers did..........ironically it was a former Steeler GM that wrecked it.

 

 

 

Nonsense.

 

You say, "when it finally has reached the point where it is the identity of a perennial playoff franchise ...", dude, please. A "perennial playoff franchise" doesn't make the playoffs in two of the previous five years. Worse, both times they made it, they lost in the wild card game. 

 

I liked Ted Washington a lot too, but they were a team without a quarterback. And it's not like they didn't build a terrific defense, and quick. They did. By 2003 they were excellent on D and DVOA has the 2004 Bills as one of the top ten defenses of all time. What they didn't do was bring in a quarterback.

Edited December 2, 2020 by Thurman#1

[BillsVet]

19 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

When you have a young, developing franchise QB, I'd rather provide him with veteran established WRs than take a shot in the draft.  Last season we brought in 2 veteran WRs to replace a horrible group. Considering we were drafting in the 20s, it made more sense to get a proven #1 WR than to take a shot in the draft this year.  Minnesota got a good deal & may have drafted a #1 in our spot, but Josh needed to be surrounded by veterans, not unproven players.  On top of that we still drafted 2 later round WRs and Davis is looking pretty good for a 4th rounder.  I can't find any fault in how Beane has constructed the WRs group from what was chicken poop in 2018.  Before Beane got here we drafted White and signed one of the best pair of S in the league as FAs, no problem that we were unable to draft another pro bowler to pair with White.  the secondary is pretty good.  

 

The draft and free agency should be used as compliments of each other & overall Beane & McDermott have overhauled this team from a playoff non contender to a perennial contender.  Once again, with a young QB, I'd rather bring in veteran offensive linemen than taking a shot in the draft.  We had far too many holes on the O-line to address with draft picks. 

 

They get huge credit for managing to maneuver in the 2018 draft through both luck & skill to not only scout the right QB, who they had as their top QB in the draft, but get him at a reasonable price, not giving up their 2nd first rounder of 2018 or their 2019 1st rounder.  The Jets paid a lot more to move up from 6 to 3 for Darnold and I'm sure there is not a single GM in the NFL who would trade Josh for Sam.  

 

As for the front 7 on D, you can't fill them all, but we still have to see what the young guys will do.  Don't be surprised if the vets we brought in shine in the playoffs.  Edmunds has been hurt for half this season & is playing healthier & better in this 2nd half of the season.  

 

My point was that using UFA too much is gonna get you into cap issues and inhibit the ability to sign home-grown types.  For years on TBD when Buffalo wasn't spending, I recall people saying you don't build a team through free agency.  That was true then and it is now, but to a point. 

 

Aside from Gabe Davis, the top 3 WR's are veterans who command a significant salary.  Buffalo is the 4th highest in the NFL spending on WR's.

 

On DL, after 4 off-seasons and not counting the DL savior himself Star Lotulelei they are 1st in the NFL in spending on the DL at $51.2M which is 5M more than the next team.  But they're a long ways from being the best DL in the league.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/breakdown/

 

They do get credit for finding a QB, which OBD hasn't done since the 1980s, while moving this team out of cap issues.  Still, they've (like others have said) brought on new ones with their own players and spending big dollars on all these veterans.  Thy need to draft better to reduce the reliance on UFA to make them more capable of signing Josh and likely Diggs to the long term extensions they'll seek.  You can't do that spending on all these free agents.  

[Chaos]

Draft Picks are a form of capital. This capital is not distributed evenly. As a sense of proportion, the Bengals were given the cash equivalent of say $10 Million dollars for the last draft.  The Chiefs were given the equivalent of 2 Million (ratio based on draft value charts).  It is difficult to directly compare how teams given different amounts of capital fare against each other.  People like to dump on the Patriots drafting.  But the Patriots have been drafting nearly last for 20 years. 

I think the proper question is not "who is the best drafter" , but rather who makes the most out of the draft capital they are given.  The Chiefs have used their draft capital in a way that allowed them to get Mahomes, and to win the most recent Super Bowl.  That makes them the unquestioned current leader in the category of who manages their draft capital the best. 


 

[JGMcD2]

This is a continuation of my research into the topic. 
 

My posts are the beginning and end of Page 1 and beginning of Page 2. 
 

Curious to hear some thoughts and what this tells folks based on their feelings on the draft, free agency, the Bills and more! 

[GunnerBill]

On 12/2/2020 at 7:01 PM, BillsVet said:

 

My point was that using UFA too much is gonna get you into cap issues and inhibit the ability to sign home-grown types.  For years on TBD when Buffalo wasn't spending, I recall people saying you don't build a team through free agency.  That was true then and it is now, but to a point. 

 

Aside from Gabe Davis, the top 3 WR's are veterans who command a significant salary.  Buffalo is the 4th highest in the NFL spending on WR's.

 

On DL, after 4 off-seasons and not counting the DL savior himself Star Lotulelei they are 1st in the NFL in spending on the DL at $51.2M which is 5M more than the next team.  But they're a long ways from being the best DL in the league.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/breakdown/

 

They do get credit for finding a QB, which OBD hasn't done since the 1980s, while moving this team out of cap issues.  Still, they've (like others have said) brought on new ones with their own players and spending big dollars on all these veterans.  Thy need to draft better to reduce the reliance on UFA to make them more capable of signing Josh and likely Diggs to the long term extensions they'll seek.  You can't do that spending on all these free agents.  

 

In fairness though very few of the free agents they have spent on are long term commitments. It has really been Star, Morse, Brown and Beasley. The rest are all guys they can easily get out of after maximum 2 seasons from the point of signing.  

5 hours ago, Chaos said:

Draft Picks are a form of capital. This capital is not distributed evenly. As a sense of proportion, the Bengals were given the cash equivalent of say $10 Million dollars for the last draft.  The Chiefs were given the equivalent of 2 Million (ratio based on draft value charts).  It is difficult to directly compare how teams given different amounts of capital fare against each other.  People like to dump on the Patriots drafting.  But the Patriots have been drafting nearly last for 20 years. 
 

 

And for a 10 year stretch in the middle of that were among the best drafters.