The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[BuffaloHokie13]

11 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

 

My post yesterday for NYPD

 

 

And today

Positive tests went from 98 to 100...

[mannc]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

It's been doubling roughly every 3 days.

 

In 2 weeks it may have doubled 4 more times.

 

If that happens, confirmed cases will be up around 650,000 to 700,000 cases. 

Except it looks like it’s only growing by around 8000/day.  At that rate there will only be another 120,000 cases in 2 weeks.

[3rdnlng]

Many NYC residents have summer homes upstate and in WNY. For those that may be unaware, Chautauqua Institution on Lake Chautauqua is a fabled community founded on religion and the arts. Homes were built starting in the mid 1800's in a mostly Victorian style but right on top of each other. Having a parking space next to your residence is almost a luxury. The "season" lasts for 9 weeks in the Summer and the whole community is gated during that time. The rest of the year the gates are open to anyone to sight see. Well, guess what? Residents who live mainly in NYC and some from other places are coming to the Institution and opening up their home in order to wait out the virus there. As of yesterday there were no confirmed cases of coronavirus in the county. There were a small number of people under observation. Just recently the Grounds had to put their gate system into play because the traffic had increased to the point that traffic control was needed. Gotta spread that virus!

 

Stopped in a liquor store yesterday in NY and it was busier than normal. When asked, the clerk told me they were inundated with customers from PA & OH. I know PA liquor stores are closed and Chautauqua County is adjacent to counties in PA. I'm not sure about OH but there are a ton of people from OH with summer homes on the lake. This is not what we need to do to control this virus. People should stay home if they are under orders to do so and stupid regulations like closing the PA State Stores in PA by Tom Wolfe just contribute to the spread. Is anyone thinking about unintended consequences of their actions? Maybe now was not the right time to mandate reusable grocery bags in NY? 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Except it looks like it’s only growing by around 8000/day.  At that rate there will only be another 120,000 cases in 2 weeks.

 

As I said, it doubles every 3 days.

 

A week ago it grew by 1,500 cases. 

 

Yesterday there were 8,000 cases.

 

In 3 more days it will be growing by 16,000 cases a day. 

 

3 days after that it will be 32,000 cases a day. 

[billsfan1959]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

As I said, it doubles every 3 days.

 

A week ago it grew by 1,500 cases. 

 

Yesterday there were 8,000 cases.

 

In 3 more days it will be growing by 16,000 cases a day. 

 

3 days after that it will be 32,000 cases a day. 

 

And, eventually, the world will end....

[TPS]

9 hours ago, mannc said:

That’s not exponential growth.  The last four days the number of new cases (whatever that means) has remained about the same.

Based on those numbers provided, the change in cases starting from March 18th through 22nd  (the numbers for 3/23 were not for full day) are:

4469  (3/19)

5534

6977

8536  (3/22)

 

The number of new cases have not "remained about the same."

Estimating the growth rate of total cases (starting on 3/12 to 3/22), it's about 35%, which means total cases are doubling every 2.3 days. Given the lack of testing in many places and NYC's influence on the numbers, I'm sure NYC is driving the aggregate data.  It would be interesting to extract the NYC data from the US total and compare.

 

 

 

 

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

Now you like math?

i'm a big fan of math. studied it with some seriousness. were you aware that equations need to have correct input in order to have correct output?

[jrober38]

7 minutes ago, TPS said:

Based on those numbers provided, the change in cases starting from March 18th through 22nd  (the numbers for 3/23 were not for full day) are:

4469  (3/19)

5534

6977

8536  (3/22)

 

The number of new cases have not "remained about the same."

Estimating the growth rate of total cases (starting on 3/12 to 3/22), it's about 35%, which means total cases are doubling every 2.3 days. Given the lack of testing in many places and NYC's influence on the numbers, I'm sure NYC is driving the aggregate data.  It would be interesting to extract the NYC data from the US total and compare.

 

Exactly.

 

Cases went up by 8,000 ONE DAY.

The number literally gets bigger every day.

 

In 3 days it will likely be 16,000 new cases. 

[4merper4mer]

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

i'm a big fan of math. studied it with some seriousness. were you aware that equations need to have correct input in order to have correct output?

What is zero divided by infinity?

[3rdnlng]

4 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

What is zero divided by infinity?

I'll get back to you. This one is going to take awhile. 

[Foxx]

13 hours ago, mannc said:

People can argue all day about what the number of "cases" is and whether we are under-counting those by not testing enough.  But what really matters is how many people get really sick or die from the virus and right now, that number is not very high (relatively speaking) anywhere.  Italy has a much older population than almost any other country, which is why they are particularly vulnerable to seasonal flu.  

 

I'm all in favor of social distancing and taking reasonable precautions such as restricting bar and restaurant business, but the current state of our knowledge about CV19 does not justify the economic suicide we are committing.  BTW, it's incredible that mass transit is still operating in NY and other cities.  That has to be the most massive vector for transmission of the virus and is probably the single reason why NYC has so many cases. 

 

this is your classic catch 22. damned if you do and damned if you don't.

 

there are really only two options:

1) we as a society do nothing to prevent it's spread.

2) we as a society try everything we can to prevent it's spread.

 

which essentially presents us with one of four outcomes:

1) the virus is deadly and we as a society do nothing to prevent it's spread.

2) the virus is deadly and we as a society try everything we can to prevent it's spread.

3) the virus is not that deadly and we as a society do nothing to prevent it's spread.

4) the virus is not that deadly and we as a society try everything we can to prevent it's spread.

 

of which only option 3 is desirable. the other 3 have ramifications that go beyond just what is topically seen. those other 3 all present their own unique problem sets. 

 

unforeseen problems, unanticipated problems, ill conceived solutions will be the order of the day.

 

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Foxx

[Foxx]

13 hours ago, jrober38 said:

... In a world with 7.5 billion people, many of them are carrying around influenza right now, spreading it to other people all over the globe. It's been around for thousands of years. 

 

COVID-19 started with one person in China, who has slowly been spreading it all over the world. It's been around for 4 months. 

 

There's an obvious difference as to why corona virus hasn't killed as many people yet. 

false equivalency.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Foxx

[TPS]

8 hours ago, Hedge said:

 

If that's intended as a slight, the tweet is the beginning of a thread and is far from the conclusion that he reached.

Sarcasm for those who diss experts...

[Foxx]

13 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

How do you know?

 

The mortality rate in Italy is 8%.

 

In Spain it's 6%. 

 

This thing hasn't even hit hard yet. In two weeks when NYC hospitals are completely overwhelmed and people are dying in the hallways the death rate is going to begin to rise. 

no. no it's not.

[TPS]

14 minutes ago, Foxx said:

no. no it's not.

It's a race against the exponential growth in cases and the ability to increase the number of ICU units and respirators.  Right now, the former is winning, so most likely the CFR will rise, but hopefully not to the levels seen in Italy or Spain.

[meazza]

2 minutes ago, TPS said:

It's a race against the exponential growth in cases and the ability to increase the number of ICU units and respirators.  Right now, the former is winning, so most likely the CFR will rise, but hopefully not to the levels seen in Italy or Spain.

 

How seriously are you taking social distancing? Here, we are completely locked down.  Even if you wanted to do something, everything is closed.  

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

How seriously are you taking social distancing? Here, we are completely locked down.  Even if you wanted to do something, everything is closed.  

Is that true in all parts of Italy, or just the north?  What about Sicily?  
 

Here is depends where you are.  Some cities and states are more or less locked down and some are not.  

Edited March 24, 2020 by mannc

[B-Man]

TREATMENTS: These Drugs Are Helping Our Coronavirus Patients:

 

A flash of potential good news from the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic: A treatment is showing promise. Doctors in France, South Korea and the U.S. are using an antimalarial drug known as hydroxychloroquine with success. We are physicians treating patients with Covid-19, and the therapy appears to be making a difference. It isn’t a silver bullet, but if deployed quickly and strategically the drug could potentially help bend the pandemic’s “hockey stick” curve.

 

Hydroxychloroquine is a common generic drug used to treat lupus, arthritis and malaria. The medication, whose brand name is Plaquenil, is relatively safe, with the main side effect being stomach irritation, though it can cause echocardiogram and vision changes. In 2005, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study showed that chloroquine, an analogue, could block a virus from penetrating a cell if administered before exposure. If tissue had already been infected, the drug inhibited the virus.

 

On March 9 a team of researchers in China published results showing hydroxychloroquine was effective against the 2019 coronavirus in a test tube. The authors suggested a five-day, 12-pill treatment for Covid-19: two 200-milligram tablets twice a day on the first day followed by one tablet twice a day for four more days.

 

A more recent French study used the drug in combination with azithromycin. Most Americans know azithromycin as the brand name Zithromax Z-Pak, prescribed for upper respiratory infections. The Z-Pak alone doesn’t appear to help fight Covid-19, and the findings of combination treatment are preliminary.

 

But researchers in France treated a small number of patients with both hydroxychloroquine and a Z-Pak, and 100% of them were cured by day six of treatment. Compare that with 57.1% of patients treated with hydroxychloroquine alone, and 12.5% of patients who received neither.

What’s more, most patients cleared the virus in three to six days rather than the 20 days observed in China. That reduces the time a patient can spread the virus to others. One lesson that should inform the U.S. approach: Use this treatment cocktail early, and don’t wait until a patient is on a ventilator in the intensive-care unit.

 

A couple of careful studies of hydroxychloroquine are in progress, but the results may take weeks or longer. Infectious-disease experts are already using hydroxychloroquine clinically with some success. With our colleague Dr. Joe Brewer in Kansas City, Mo., we are using hydroxychloroquine in two ways: to treat patients and as prophylaxis to protect health-care workers from infection. . . . As a matter of clinical practice, hydroxychloroquine should be given early to patients who test positive, and perhaps if Covid-19 is presumed—in the case of ill household contacts, for instance.

 

 

 

Good. Sounds promising.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Moving Past the Quarantine

by Arpit Gupta

Original Article

 

 

 

 

 

.

[meazza]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Is that true in all parts of Italy, or just the north?  What about Sicily?  
 

Here is depends where you are.  Some states are more or less locked down and some are not.  

 

I am Italian but I live in Montreal.  We are allowed to leave our homes but social distancing will be enforced on the streets.  The numbers are encouraging here as we expected a peak as this was a result of cases originating from the week after spring break when everyone returned from spring break but no social distancing was practiced.  

 

After two weeks of being relatively locked down, I wouldn't be surprised that the amount of new cases drops.

[B-Man]

 

 Surgeon General Tells U.S.: ‘This Week It’s Going To Get Bad.’

 

 

 

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Continues to Facilitate Access to Crucial Medical Products, Including Ventilators.

 

 

 

 

 

DEREGULATION: FDA issues temporary hand sanitizer guidelines. 

 

 

 

.

 

[Warren Zevon]

9 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 Surgeon General Tells U.S.: ‘This Week It’s Going To Get Bad.’

 

 

President Tells U.S.: THE CURE CANNOT BE WORSE (by far) THAN THE PROBLEM!

[Tiberius]

24 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

How seriously are you taking social distancing? Here, we are completely locked down.  Even if you wanted to do something, everything is closed.  

I just went out to buy a bike, the guy unlocked the door, said he’d love to sell me a bike, but he couldn’t and locked back up. 

16 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 Surgeon General Tells U.S.: ‘This Week It’s Going To Get Bad.’

 

 

 

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Continues to Facilitate Access to Crucial Medical Products, Including Ventilators.

 

 

 

 

 

DEREGULATION: FDA issues temporary hand sanitizer guidelines. 

 

 

 

.

 

And on Tucker Carlson: https://www.danpatrick.org/tucker-carlson-tonight-march-23-2020/

 

The elders should take one for the team? 

[Uncle Joe]

Another perspective regarding pandemic growth:
Why this Stanford biophysicist predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/why-this-stanford-biophysicist-predicts-a-quicker-coronavirus-recovery-were-going-to-be-fine.html

Also states; "Levitt said the social-distancing mandates are critical — particularly the ban on large gatherings — because the virus is so new that the population has no immunity to it and a vaccine is still many months away. “This is not the time to go out drinking with your buddies.”"

[Foxx]

9 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

When you cite the blaze, it removes all need to have further discussion. Why does anyone like to get information from such overtly biased sensational sources?

whom would you prefer to use? can we shoot that messenger too instead of consuming the content and deciding what, if any of it has merit? 

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, Uncle Joe said:

Another perspective regarding pandemic growth:
Why this Stanford biophysicist predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/why-this-stanford-biophysicist-predicts-a-quicker-coronavirus-recovery-were-going-to-be-fine.html

Also states; "Levitt said the social-distancing mandates are critical — particularly the ban on large gatherings — because the virus is so new that the population has no immunity to it and a vaccine is still many months away. “This is not the time to go out drinking with your buddies.”"

 

I think the issue is that in many places social distancing guidelines haven't been followed. 

 

China seemed to have had success because they're an authoritarian regime who was locking people in their homes. 

 

I think the western world is struggling because they took so much longer to act in a meaningful way. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

false equivalency.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_influenza

 

influenza timeline 

 

 

 

Year/period	Type of event	Event	Geographical location
400 BCE	Medical development	The symptoms of human influenza are described by Hippocrates.[11][5]
1173	Epidemic	First epidemic, where symptoms are probably influenza, is reported.[3]	Europe
1357		The term influenza is first used to describe a disease prevailing in 1357. It would be applied again to the epidemic in 1386−1387.[12]	Italy
1386–1387	Epidemic	Influenza-like illness epidemic develops in Europe, preferentially killing elderly and debilitating persons. This is probably the first documentation of a key epidemiological feature of both pandemic and seasonal influenza.[12]	Europe
1411	Epidemic	Epidemic of coughing disease associated with spontaneous abortions is noted in Paris.[12]	France
1510	Epidemic	Influenza pandemic develops in Africa in the summer of 1510 and proceedes northward to involve all of Europe and then the Baltic States. Attack rates are extremely high, but fatality is low and said to be restricted to young children.[12]	Africa, Europe
1557–1558	Epidemic	The first influenza pandemic in which global involvement and westward spread from Asia to Europe is documented. Unlike the previous pandemic from 1510, this one is highly fatal, with deaths recorded as being due to "pleurisy and fatal peripneumony". High mortality in pregnant women is also recorded.[12]	Eurasia
1580	Epidemic	Influenza pandemic originates in Asia during the summer, spreading to Africa, and then to Europe along two corridors from Asia Minor and North-West Africa. Illness rates are high. 8000 deaths are reported in Rome, and some Spanish cities are decimated.[3][12]	Eurasia, Africa
1729	Epidemic	Influenza pandemic originates in Russia, spreading westwards in expanding waves to embrace all Europe within six months. High death rates are reported.[7][3][12]	Eurasia
1761–1762	Epidemic	Influenza pandemic originates in the Americas in the spring of 1761 and spreads from there to Europe and around the globe in 1762. It is the first pandemic to be studied by multiple observers who communicate with each other in learned societies and through medical journals and books. Influenza is characterized clinically to a greater degree than it has been previously, as physicians carefully record observations on series of patients and attempt to understand what would later be called the pathophysiology of the disease.[12]	Americas, Europe
1780–1782	Epidemic	Influenza pandemic originates in Southeast Asia and spreads to Russia and eastward into Europe. It is remarkable for extremely high attack rates but negligible mortality. It appears that in this pandemic the concept of influenza as a distinct entity with characteristic epidemiological features is first appreciated.[12]	Eurasia
1830–1833	Epidemic	Influenza pandemic breaks out in the winter of 1830 in China, further spreading southwards by sea to reach the Philippines, India and Indonesia, and across Russia into Europe. By 1831, the epidemic reaches the Americas. Overall the attack rate is estimated at 20–25% of the population, but the mortality rate is not exceptionally high.[3]	Eurasia, Americas
1878	Scientific development	Avian influenza is recorded for the first time. Originally known as Fowl Plague.[4]	Italy
1889–1892	Epidemic	1889–90 flu pandemic. Dubbed the "Russian pandemic". Attack rates are reported in 408 geographic entities from 14 European countries and in the United States. Rapidly spreading, the pandemic would take only 4 months to circumnavigate the planet, reaching the United States 70 days after the original outbreak in Saint Petersburg.[13] Following this pandemic, interest is renewed in examining the recurrence patterns of influenza.[12]	Eurasia, Americas
1901	Scientific development	The causative organism of avian influenza is discovered to be a virus.[14]
1918-1920	Epidemic	The Spanish flu (H1N1) pandemic is considered one of the deadliest natural disasters ever, infecting an estimated 500 million people across the globe and claiming between 50 and 100 million lives. This pandemic would be described as "the greatest medical holocaust in history" and is estimated to have killed in a single year more people than the Black Death bubonic plague killed in four years from 1347 to 1351.[15][16]	Worldwide; originated in France (disputed)
1931	Scientific development	American virologist Richard Shope discovers the etiological cause of influenza in pigs.[17]
1933	Scientific development	British researchers Wilson Smith, Christopher Andrews, and Patrick Laidlaw are the first to identify the human flu virus by experimenting with ferrets.[18][19][20]	United Kingdom
1936	Medical development	Soviet scientist A. Smorodintseff first attempts vaccination with a live influenza vaccine that has been passed about 30-times in eggs. Smorodintseff would later report that the modified virus causes only a barely perceptible, slight fever and that subjects are protected against reinfection.[21]	Russia
1942	Medical development	Bivalent vaccine is produced after the discovery of influenza B.[20]
1945	Medical development	The first license to produce an influenza vaccine for civilian use is granted in the United States.[22]	United States
1946	Organization	The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is established by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services in order to protect public health and safety through the control and prevention of diseases. The CDC would launch campaigns targeting the transmission of influenza.[23][24]	United States (Atlanta)
1947	Organization	The World Medical Association (WMA) is formed as an international confederation of free professional medical associations. Like CDC, the WMA would launch Influenza Immunization Campaigns.[25]	France (serves worldwide)
1948	Organization	The World Health Organization (WHO) is established.[26]
1952	Organization (Research institute)	The Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) is established by the WHO with the purpose of conducting global influenza virological surveillance. GISRS monitors the evolution of influenza viruses and provides recommendations in areas including laboratory diagnostics, vaccines, antiviral susceptibility and risk assessment. It also serves as a global alert mechanism for the emergence of influenza viruses with pandemic potential.[27]
1957	Epidemic	New, virulent influenza A virus subtype H2N2 breaks out in Guizhou (China). It would turn into pandemic (category 2) and kill 1 to 4 million people.[28] It is considered the second major influenza pandemic to occur in the 20th century, after the Spanish flu.[29][12]	China
1959	Non–human infection	Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 breaks out in Scotland and affects domestic chicken.[30]	United Kingdom
1961	Non–human infection	Avian Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 strain is found in birds.[31][32]	South Africa
1963	Non–human infection	Influenza A virus subtype H7N3 breaks out in England and affects domestic turkeys.[30]	United Kingdom
1966	Non–human infection	Influenza A virus subtype H5N9 breaks out in Ontario and affects domestic turkeys.[30]	Canada
1968-1969	Epidemic	Hong Kong flu (H3N2) pandemic breaks out, caused by a virus that has been “updated” from the previously circulating virus by reassortment of avian genes.[12][33]	Eurasia, North America
1973	Program launch	The World Health Organization starts issuing annual recommendations for the composition of the influenza vaccine based on results from surveillance systems that would identify currently circulating strains.[20]
1976	Epidemic	Swine flu outbreak is identified at U.S. army base in Fort Dix, New Jersey. Four soldiers infected resulting in one death. To prevent a major pandemic, the United States launches a vaccination campaign.[34][35]	United States (New Jersey)
1976	Non–human infection	Influenza A virus subtype H7N7 breaks out in Victoria (Australia) and affects domestic chicken.[30]	Australia
1977	Epidemic	Russian flu (H1N1) epidemic. New influenza strain in humans. Isolated in northern China. A similar strain prevalent in 1947–57 causes most adults to have substantial immunity. This outbreak is not considered a pandemic because most patients are children.[35]	Russia, China, worldwide
1978	Medical development	The first trivalent influenza vaccine is introduced. It includes two influenza A strains and one influenza B strain.[20]
1980	Medical development	United States FDA approves influenza vaccine Fluzone (Sanofi Pasteur), developed for A subtype viruses and type B virus contained in the vaccine.[36]	United States
1983	Non–human infection	Avian Influenza A virus subtype H5N8 breaks out. 8,000 turkeys, 28,020 chickens, and 270,000 ducks are slaughtered.[37][32]	Ireland
1988	Infection	Influenza A virus subtype H1N2 is isolated from humans in six cities in China, but the virus does not spread further.[38]	China
1990-1996	Medical development	Oseltamivir (often referenced by its trademark name Tamiflu) is developed by Gilead Sciences, using shikimic acid for synthesis. It would be widely used in further antiviral campaigns targeting influenza A and B. Included on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines.[39]	United States
1997	Infection	Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 (also known as bird flu) is discovered in humans. The first time an influenza virus is found to be transmitted directly from birds to people. Eighteen people hospitalized, six of whom die. Hong Kong kills its entire poultry population of about 1.5 million birds. No pandemic develops.[40]	China (Hong Kong)
1997	Infection	Highly pathogenic Influenza A virus subtype H7N4 strain causes a minor flu outbreak in chicken.	Australia
1999	Infection	New Influenza A virus subtype H9N2 strain is detected in humans. It causes illness in two children in Hong Kong, with poultry being the probable source. No pandemic develops.[35][32]	China (Hong Kong)
2002	Infection	New avian influenza A virus subtype H7N2 strain affects 197 farms in Virginia and results in the killing of over 4.7 million birds. One person is infected, fully recovered.[41][32]	United States
2003–2007	Infection	Avian (Influenza A virus subtype H5N1) strain is reported in humans. In February 2003, two people are infected in Hong Kong, one dies. In December 2003, H5N1 breaks out among chicken in South Korea. By January 2004, Japan has its first outbreak of avian flu since 1925 and Vietnam reports human cases. In Thailand, nine million chickens are slaughtered to stop the spread of the disease.[32] By December 2006, over 240 million poultry would die or be culled due to H5N1.[42] See also: Global spread of H5N1	East Asia, Southeast Asia
2003	Infection	First reported case of avian influenza A virus subtype H7N7 strain in humans. 88 people are infected, one dies. 30 million birds are slaughtered.[43][32]	Netherlands
2004	Organization	The Influenza Genome Sequencing Project is launched to investigate influenza evolution by providing a public data set of complete influenza genome sequences from collections of isolates representing diverse species distributions. Funded by the NIAID.[44]
2004	Infection	New avian Influenza A virus subtype H7N3 strain is detected in humans. Two poultry workers become infected, eventually fully recovered.[45][32]	Canada
2004	Infection	New avian influenza A virus subtype H10N7 strain is detected in humans. Two children become infected.[46][32]	Egypt
2004	Non–human infection	Avian influenza A virus subtype H5N2 infects birds in Texas. 6,600 infected broiler chickens are slaughtered.[47][32]	United States
2005	Organization	United States President George W. Bush unveils the National Strategy to Safeguard Against the Danger of Pandemic Influenza. US$1 billion for the production and stockpile of oseltamivir are requested after Congress approves $1.8 billion for military use of the drug.[48][49]	United States
2005	Organization	American president George W. Bush announces the International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza. The purpose of the partnership is protecting human and animal health as well as mitigating the global socioeconomic and security consequences of an influenza pandemic.[50][51]	United States (New York City)
2005	Infection	Avian influenza A virus subtype H1N1 strain kills one person in Cambodia. In Romania, a village is quarantined after three dead ducks test positive for H1N1.[52][32]	Cambodia, Romania
2006	Organization	The International Pledging Conference on Avian and Human Pandemic Influenza is held Beijing. Co-hosted by the Chinese Government, the European Commission and the World Bank. The purpose is to raise funds for international cooperation in the prevention and control of avian and human influenza.[53]	China (Beijing)
2007	Non-human infection	Equine influenza outbreak is diagnosed in Australia's horse population following the failure to contain infection in quarantine after the importation of one or more infected horses. The outbreak would also have a major impact on individual horse owners, the horse industry and associated sectors in both infected and uninfected states.[54]	Australia
2008	Scientific development	OpenFluDB is launched as a database for human and animal influenza virus. It's used to collect, manage, store and distribute worldwide data on influenza.[55]	Worldwide
2008	Service launch	Google launches Google Flu Trends, a web service with aims at providing estimates of influenza activity by aggregating Google Search queries. The system would provide data to 29 countries worldwide, extending service to include surveillance for dengue.[56]	United States
2009	Epidemic	New flu virus (H1N1) pandemic, first recognized in the state of Veracruz, Mexico, spreads quickly across the United States and the world, prompting a strong global public reaction. Overseas flights are discouraged from government health bodies.[57] Worldwide, nearly 1 billion doses of H1N1 vaccine are ordered.[58] A total of 74 countries are affected. 18,500 deaths.[35]	Worldwide
2011	Non–human infection	Influenza A virus subtype H3N8 causes death of more than 160 baby seals in New England.[59]	United States
2012	Scientific development	A 2012 meta-analysis finds that flu shots are efficacious 67 percent of the time.[60]
2012	Scientific project/controversy	American virologists Ron Fouchier and Yoshihiro Kawaoka intentionally develop a strain based on H5N1 for which no vaccine exists, causing outrage in both the media and scientific community.[61][62][63]	Netherlands (Erasmus Medical Center), United States (University of Wisconsin–Madison)
2012	Medical development	United States FDA approves first seasonal influenza vaccine manufactured using cell culture technology.[64]	United States
2013	Epidemic	Avian Influenza A virus subtype H7N9 strain, a low pathogenic AI virus, breaks out in China. As of April 11, 2014, the outbreak's overall total would reach 419 people, including 7 in Hong Kong, with the unofficial death toll at 127.[65][66]	China, Vietnam
2013	Medical development	United States FDA approves influenza vaccine Flublok (Protein Sciences), developed through recombinant DNA technology.[67]	United States
2013	Infection	Avian Influenza A virus subtype H10N8 strain infects for the first time and kills one person.[68][32]	China
2015	Program	Google Flu Trends shuts down in August 2015 after successive inaccuracies in the big data analysis.[69] After performing well for two to three years since the service launch in 2008, GFT would start to fail significantly and require substantial revision.[70] However, Google Flu Trends would also inspire several other similar projects that use social media data to predict disease trends.[71]	United States
2017	Medical development	Researchers from the University of Texas at Arlington build influenza detector that can diagnose at a breath, without the intervention of a doctor.[72]	United States
2017	Scientific development	Researchers from the University of Helsinki demonstrate that three anti-influenza compounds effectively inhibit zika virus infection in human cells.[73]

[mannc]

14 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

President Tells U.S.: THE CURE CANNOT BE WORSE (by far) THAN THE PROBLEM!

Makes sense to me...

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

Except it looks like it’s only growing by around 8000/day.  At that rate there will only be another 120,000 cases in 2 weeks.

 

With social distancing in place, that might be true. 

 

The rate in Italy is declining but only because of the quarantine. There is no plan to get back to normal in Italy or the US. 

 

We have had exponential growth and that is clear. The slowing of that is OF COURSE because 150 million Americans are under some state of quarantine and many of them have been for 10 days+ on the coasts. The map of the US now shows growing pockets picking up in every state. The US had 300 cases a few weeks ago and today we are at 45,000. 

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

this is your classic catch 22. damned if you do and damned if you don't.

 

there are really only two options:

1) we as a society do nothing to prevent it's spread.

2) we as a society try everything we can to prevent it's spread.

 

 

 

There are plenty of options combining 1 and 2. The decision to re-open can be done in a way that doesn't make this a binary "***** it" one way or the other. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by shoshin

[Foxx]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Sounds an awful lot like Climate Change.

i understand what you are getting at but the equations for the assumed number of those who are thought to catch the flu every year are no where near as complex as an equation that would assume climate change. this is not apples to apples.

 

 

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Exactly.

 

Cases went up by 8,000 ONE DAY.

The number literally gets bigger every day.

 

In 3 days it will likely be 16,000 new cases. 

we have you on record.

 

 

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

What is zero divided by infinity?

silly rabbit, 42. everyone knows that, duh.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Foxx

[B-Man]

CORONAVIRUS: 

 

Worldwide coronavirus recovery rate by the numbers.

 

 

Singapore, Hong Kong Reimpose Coronavirus Restrictions Over “Second Wave” Of Cases

https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/03/24/uh-oh-singapore-hong-kong-reimpose-coronavirus-restrictions-second-wave-cases/

 

 

 

 

 

Wuhan Virus Watch: Trump Prepares Nation for Next Phase in War Against Coronavirus

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

[Tiberius]

Cuomo begging Federal government for more help with ventilators. 

 

Making argument that NY will only be first place hit hard, but it will spread and NY will be helping the rest of the nation as it spreads 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

Cuomo begging Federal government for more help with ventilators. 

 

Making argument that NY will only be first place hit hard, but it will spread and NY will be helping the rest of the nation as it spreads 

 

Ya NY is going to get hard first. Cops, doctors, fireman. hell can't have her male partner there if she giving birth at a hospital.  Among many other things.

[TPS]

53 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

How seriously are you taking social distancing? Here, we are completely locked down.  Even if you wanted to do something, everything is closed.  

I’m in Erie county. You can go outside, you can go pick up essentials, and many restaurants are offering takeout. I wouldn’t say it’s extreme in any sense. The restrictions on work are more extreme. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, TPS said:

I’m in Erie county. You can go outside, you can go pick up essentials, and many restaurants are offering takeout. I wouldn’t say it’s extreme in any sense. The restrictions on work are more extreme. 

 

Same here TPS

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[Tiberius]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Ya NY is going to get hard first. Cops, doctors, fireman. hell can't have her male partner there if she giving birth at a hospital.  Among many other things.

Heroes all, and nurses, grocery store workers, truckers, keeping society together ?

[BuffaloHokie13]

I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert here, and I'm not sharing to prove any sort of point. I'm tracking daily case data via worldometer because it interests me. I have overlayed the data since 2/15 for Italy, Spain, Canada, and the US. I also charted the same data, but with total cases divided by population. Mostly posting in case anyone else finds it interesting. Both charts have an exponential best fit line for each data set with equation and r^2 values displayed. Italy is green, Spain is yellow, Canada is red, US is blue.

Interestingly, despite the 'lag' between Italy and the US, both had ~1 case/50k population on 2/15.

Edited March 24, 2020 by BuffaloHokie13

[mannc]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert here, and I'm not sharing to prove any sort of point. I'm tracking daily case data via worldometer because it interests me. I have overlayed the data since 2/15 for Italy, Spain, Canada, and the US. I also charted the same data, but with total cases divided by population. Mostly posting in case anyone else finds it interesting. Both charts have an exponential best fit line for each data set with equation and r^2 values displayed. Italy is green, Spain is yellow, Canada is red, US is blue.

Interestingly, despite the 'lag between Italy and the US, both had ~1 case/50k population on 2/15.

What's your conclusion?

[3rdnlng]

44 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

I just went out to buy a bike, the guy unlocked the door, said he’d love to sell me a bike, but he couldn’t and locked back up. 

And on Tucker Carlson: https://www.danpatrick.org/tucker-carlson-tonight-march-23-2020/

 

The elders should take one for the team? 

What? They were out of tricycles? 

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 minutes ago, mannc said:

What's your conclusion?

We're doing relatively well considering our population, but our population provides tremendous potential for the numbers to inflate. I think continuing current precautions through May would be wise, though there may be some creative solutions to supplement the economy and expand work in certain fields through that period without jeopardizing public safety. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by BuffaloHokie13