The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[ALF]

7 minutes ago, Nanker said:

Face it Alf, you’re just a racist xenophobe globalist, and fascist wannabe too. 

 

So there was no way possible to have lessened the pandemic in the US and disaster to the economy 

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, ALF said:

Navarro memos warning of mass coronavirus death circulated in January

 

In late January, President Trump's economic adviser Peter Navarro warned his White House colleagues the novel coronavirus could take more than half a million American lives and cost close to $6 trillion, according to memos obtained by Axios.

 

Navarro's grim estimates are set out in two memos — one dated Jan. 29 and addressed to the National Security Council, the other dated Feb. 23 and addressed to the president. The NSC circulated both memos around the White House and multiple agencie

 

The "naivete, arrogance and ignorance" of White House advisers who disagreed with Navarro "put the country and the world in jeopardy," Bannon said, adding that Navarro was sidelined from the task force after the memo.

 

The Jan 29 memo set out two stark choices "Aggressive Containment versus No Containment."

 

Navarro compared cost estimates for the choices and wrote that the Council of Economic Advisers' estimates for stopping travel from China to the U.S. would be $2.9 billion per month. If the virus turned out to be a pandemic, that travel ban could extend 12 months and cost the U.S. $34.6 billion.

Doing nothing (the "No Containment" option) could range from "zero economic costs" to $5.7 trillion depending on the lethality of the virus.

On the high end, he estimated a scenario in which the coronavirus could kill 543,000 Americans.

 

https://www.axios.com/exclusive-navarro-deaths-coronavirus-memos-january-da3f08fb-dce1-4f69-89b5-ea048f8382a9.html

 

Wow , if only they took Peter Navarro serious back then

 

So. I'm a little confused here. If Trump ignored the warning signs and waited far too long to do anything, shouldn't those catastrophic predictions be coming through?

 

If you look across every country (with reporting that is expected to be legitimate and accurate) with a significant number of cases, The numbers in the United States more closely resemble the numbers of Germany, whom everyone has touted as doing a great job than the numbers of countries like France, Spain, and Italy.

[LB3]

1 minute ago, ALF said:

 

So there was no way possible to have lessened the pandemic in the US and disaster to the economy 

Why do you keep posting old articles that have likely been posted before? 

[Nanker]

Just now, ALF said:

 

So there was no way possible to have lessened the pandemic in the US and disaster to the economy 

You’re an Azz. What if FDR had stopped the Nazis from killing the Jews. Why didn’t he send assistance to Wake, and also stop the Bataan Death March?

Just now, LB3 said:

Why do you keep posting old articles that have likely been posted before? 

He’s a Debbie Downer. He hates Trump and optimism. 

[ALF]

2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

So. I'm a little confused here. If Trump ignored the warning signs and waited far too long to do anything, shouldn't those catastrophic predictions be coming through?

 

If you look across every country (with reporting that is expected to be legitimate and accurate) with a significant number of cases, The numbers in the United States more closely resemble the numbers of Germany, whom everyone has touted as doing a great job than the numbers of countries like France, Spain, and Italy.

 

Yep just a slight increase in the budget deficit  no problem

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, ALF said:

 

So there was no way possible to have lessened the pandemic in the US and disaster to the economy 

Did you just join the conversation a minute ago? Let me recap: Dr Fauchi screwed up! He was listening to and trusting of his professional circle of academic scientist friends in the WHO. So much so that they ended up being late to shut down air travel from China. That single initial mistake caused EVERYTHING else. That’s it in a nutshell.

[GG]

22 minutes ago, ALF said:

Trump spent the past 2 years slashing the government agencies responsible for handling the coronavirus outbreak

 

In 2018, for instance, the CDC cut 80% of its efforts to prevent global disease outbreaks because it was running out of money. Ultimately, the department went from working in 49 countries to just 10.

 

Here are some other actions the Trump administration undertook to dismantle government-spending programs related to fighting the spread of global diseases, according to Foreign Policy:

 

Shutting down the entire global-health-security unit of the National Security Council.

 

Eliminating the US government's $30 million Complex Crises Fund.

 

Reducing national health spending by $15 billion.

 

Consistently attacking Mark Green, the director of the US Agency for International Development.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cuts-programs-responsible-for-fighting-coronavirus-2020-2

 

Always consider the source.

[Nanker]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Did you just join the conversation a minute ago? Let me recap: Dr Fauchi screwed up! He was listening to and trusting of his professional circle of academic scientist friends in the WHO. So much so that they ended up being late to shut down air travel from China. That single initial mistake caused EVERYTHING else. That’s it in a nutshell.

Why you RACIST XENOPHOBE YOU!!!! China must be trusted! WHO must be trusted! The CCP MUST BE TRUSTED!!!!!!!

The WaPo and NYT and CNN, and MSNBC, MUST BE TRUSTED!!!!

[Warren Zevon]

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Fauchi 

 

Fauci

[billsfan1959]

Just now, ALF said:

 

Yep just a slight increase in the budget deficit  no problem

 

Just answer the question. If Trump waited too long to do anything, shouldn't the numbers in the US resemble what we are seeing in Italy, France, Spain rather than what we see in Germany, who, by the way, the same people saying Trump waited too long have been praising Germany?

 

Here are some current numbers to help you

 

Country	Population	Tests conducted	Tests conducted per million	Cases	Deaths	Deaths per million	Cases per million	Death Rate of confirmed cases
Italy	60000000	619000	10316.67	132547	16523	275.38	2209.12	12.47%
Spain	46000000	355000	7717.39	140510	13798	299.96	3054.57	9.82%
France	65000000	101046	1554.55	98984	8926	137.32	1522.83	9.02%
Belgium	11000000	22615	2055.91	22194	2035	185.00	2017.64	9.17%
Germany	83000000	918460	11065.78	103375	1810	21.81	1245.48	1.75%
UK	67000000	173784	2593.79	52301	5385	80.37	780.61	10.30%
Total	332000000	2189905	6596.10	549911	48477	146.02	1656.36	8.82%
United States	331000000	1900000	5740.18	368449	10993	33.21	1113.14	2.98%

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Fauci

Thanks Gary! I can always count on you for a spelling correction. (Say.....you aren’t secretly my AP English teacher from back in the day...are you? If so you’ve lived a LONG life sir. God bless you!)

[shoshin]

9 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Just answer the question. If Trump waited too long to do anything, shouldn't the numbers in the US resemble what we are seeing in Italy, France, Spain rather than what we see in Germany, who, by the way, the same people saying Trump waited too long have been praising Germany?

 

Here are some current numbers to help you

 

Country	Population	Tests conducted	Tests conducted per million	Cases	Deaths	Deaths per million	Cases per million	Death Rate of confirmed cases
Italy	60000000	619000	10316.67	132547	16523	275.38	2209.12	12.47%
Spain	46000000	355000	7717.39	140510	13798	299.96	3054.57	9.82%
France	65000000	101046	1554.55	98984	8926	137.32	1522.83	9.02%
Belgium	11000000	22615	2055.91	22194	2035	185.00	2017.64	9.17%
Germany	83000000	918460	11065.78	103375	1810	21.81	1245.48	1.75%
UK	67000000	173784	2593.79	52301	5385	80.37	780.61	10.30%
Total	332000000	2189905	6596.10	549911	48477	146.02	1656.36	8.82%
United States	331000000	1900000	5740.18	368449	10993	33.21	1113.14	2.98%

 

The concern for me is not about this wave, which we've seemingly gotten under control (leveling phase now, with hopefully dropping in 2-3 weeks if we follow Italy and others), but what comes next. If we assume that we are underestimating the cases by 10X, for a rough number, then all of this will have occurred with only 1% of the population getting Covid-19. 

 

How we reopen is really critical to slowly getting back to a functioning economy without having to do this exercise twice or more. I have not yet seen a plan or projection about how to do this, but it would have to involve shitloads of testing and an ability to contact trace and do focused quarantines of people and small communities, that is, don't shut down NY State if only NYC has another outbreak, but on a smaller scale, don't shut down KEnmore Schools if a kid from Lackawanna HS gets it. Rapid serology tests and some way to track the outbreaks and contacts is vital to this effort.

Edited April 7, 2020 by shoshin

[Warren Zevon]

Checked "billsfan1959 posts his favorite chart again" off today's bingo board

[Tiberius]

36 minutes ago, ALF said:

Trump spent the past 2 years slashing the government agencies responsible for handling the coronavirus outbreak

 

In 2018, for instance, the CDC cut 80% of its efforts to prevent global disease outbreaks because it was running out of money. Ultimately, the department went from working in 49 countries to just 10.

 

Here are some other actions the Trump administration undertook to dismantle government-spending programs related to fighting the spread of global diseases, according to Foreign Policy:

 

Shutting down the entire global-health-security unit of the National Security Council.

 

Eliminating the US government's $30 million Complex Crises Fund.

 

Reducing national health spending by $15 billion.

 

Consistently attacking Mark Green, the director of the US Agency for International Development.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cuts-programs-responsible-for-fighting-coronavirus-2020-2

And they are still trying to get the supreme court to kill Obamacare, which will throw 30 million people off of health insurance, during a Pandemic! Insane 

[Warren Zevon]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks Gary! I can always count on you for a spelling correction. (Say.....you aren’t secretly my AP English teacher from back in the day...are you? If so you’ve lived a LONG life sir. God bless you!)

 

If you are going to blame Fauci for EVERYTHING ELSE at least spell his name right.  

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Gary Busey said:

Checked "billsfan1959 posts his favorite chart again" off today's bingo board

 

Just posting current facts on which to base a discussion, Gary. Sorry they don't fit the narrative for some around here.

 

Maybe you could actually try adding anything productive at all to any discussion

[Tiberius]

6 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Just answer the question. If Trump waited too long to do anything, shouldn't the numbers in the US resemble what we are seeing in Italy, France, Spain rather than what we see in Germany, who, by the way, the same people saying Trump waited too long have been praising Germany?

 

Here are some current numbers to help you

 

Country	Population	Tests conducted	Tests conducted per million	Cases	Deaths	Deaths per million	Cases per million	Death Rate of confirmed cases
Italy	60000000	619000	10316.67	132547	16523	275.38	2209.12	12.47%
Spain	46000000	355000	7717.39	140510	13798	299.96	3054.57	9.82%
France	65000000	101046	1554.55	98984	8926	137.32	1522.83	9.02%
Belgium	11000000	22615	2055.91	22194	2035	185.00	2017.64	9.17%
Germany	83000000	918460	11065.78	103375	1810	21.81	1245.48	1.75%
UK	67000000	173784	2593.79	52301	5385	80.37	780.61	10.30%
Total	332000000	2189905	6596.10	549911	48477	146.02	1656.36	8.82%
United States	331000000	1900000	5740.18	368449	10993	33.21	1113.14	2.98%

Nope, different countries, different situations 

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Tiberius said:

Nope, different countries, different situations 

 

Of course. Pretty in-depth answer there, Tiberius. Hope you didn't overwork yourself in formulating it.

[Warren Zevon]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Just posting current facts on which to base a discussion, Gary. Sorry they don't fit the narrative for some around here.

 

Maybe you could actually try adding anything productive at all to any discussion

 

Where are the data from the other North American countries that the United States shares borders with?

[Q-baby!]

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Just answer the question. If Trump waited too long to do anything, shouldn't the numbers in the US resemble what we are seeing in Italy, France, Spain rather than what we see in Germany, who, by the way, the same people saying Trump waited too long have been praising Germany?

 

Here are some current numbers to help you

 

Country	Population	Tests conducted	Tests conducted per million	Cases	Deaths	Deaths per million	Cases per million	Death Rate of confirmed cases
Italy	60000000	619000	10316.67	132547	16523	275.38	2209.12	12.47%
Spain	46000000	355000	7717.39	140510	13798	299.96	3054.57	9.82%
France	65000000	101046	1554.55	98984	8926	137.32	1522.83	9.02%
Belgium	11000000	22615	2055.91	22194	2035	185.00	2017.64	9.17%
Germany	83000000	918460	11065.78	103375	1810	21.81	1245.48	1.75%
UK	67000000	173784	2593.79	52301	5385	80.37	780.61	10.30%
Total	332000000	2189905	6596.10	549911	48477	146.02	1656.36	8.82%
United States	331000000	1900000	5740.18	368449	10993	33.21	1113.14	2.98%

So we’re not at zero? Hmmm. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Gary Busey said:

Checked "billsfan1959 posts his favorite chart again" off today's bingo board

I’ve been going to a running ticker on a site called Worldometers every day. They have daily updates for each country, and then again for each State. The state by state tally is very informative. Both the cases and the deaths are very much so focused on the geographically tiny NYC Metro area. The other areas of the country are a not even a distant second. California has a grand total of 350 deaths over two months!

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Where are the data from the other North American countries that the United States shares borders with?

 

If you are so curious, why don't you look them up and post them?

 

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’ve been going to a running ticker on a site called Worldometers every day. They have daily updates for each country, and then again for each State. The state by state tally is very informative. Both the cases and the deaths are very much so focused on the geographically tiny NYC Metro area. The other areas of the country are a not even a distant second. California has a grand total of 350 deaths over two months!

 

Hey let's not look at numbers when we can react with emotions! So say the folks who have been sceaming about predictive numbers for over a month.....

Edited April 7, 2020 by billsfan1959

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

1 hour ago, ALF said:

Joe Biden: Trump is worst possible leader to deal with coronavirus outbreak   Jan 27 ,  2020   USA Today

 

President has blithely tweeted that 'it will all work out well.' Yet the steps he has taken have only weakened our capacity to respond.

 

To be blunt, I am concerned that the Trump administration’s shortsighted policies have left us unprepared for a dangerous epidemic that will come sooner or later.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/01/27/coronavirus-donald-trump-made-us-less-prepared-joe-biden-column/4581710002/

There's so much here to unpack from Biden's campaign pitch here, but he seems to compare the transmission potential of Covid wity that of Ebola.

 

Alf, do you see this as a valid comparison based on number of cases world wide, the information available and transmission rates worldwide?  

 

Joe points to the Trump's failure to lead an international response to the virus, mocks walls and barriers in the fight against Covif, yet in retrospect shutting down travel to/from seems to be widely accepted as a means to combatting the spread.  Joe is also on record as to encouraging people to get out, congregate and visit public places. 

 

Alf, given Joe's past experience with Ebola, did his actions conflict with his messaging from this opinion piece?  Was he on the wrong side of the crisis, especially in light of widely published recommendations to, in essence, create distance and shelter behind the walls of one's own residence? 

 

He writes this:

 

 The outbreak of a new coronavirus, which has already infected more than 2,700 people and killed over 80 in China, will get worse before it gets better. Cases have been confirmed in a dozen countries, with at least five in the United States. There will likely be more.

 

Joe's questionable ties to China notwithstanding, he's campaigned on his strong ties to world leaders, his perception that hes viewed as a strong world leader by other leaders of nations.   He bragged about getting things accomplished in. While he mixed up the name of the leader from China that he worked with, his point was clear: I know these people, they know and work with me, I'm the man. 

 

Alf, 2700 infections and 80 deaths in China are of end of January, 2020?  Does that sound right to you?  Do these remarks leave you wondering of Joe has any connections, juice or fire power if this is truly what he thought at that time?  Was he taken advantage of, relying on data he had access to given his relationship with Chinese leaders?  Did he believe the lie, or simply perpetuate it for political expedience?  

 

I'd appreciate some feedback, because this piece by Joe looks very weak in retrospect. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by leh-nerd skin-erd

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Where are the data from the other North American countries that the United States shares borders with?

If you factor out NYC then Canada’s numbers are very similar to the US. (Although I’m not sure why so many Chinese would be flying into Canada in January.) Mexico is pretty low and I believe it’s because it’s probably not a big tourist destination for the Chinese.

[Q-baby!]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

If you factor out NYC then Canada’s numbers are very similar to the US. (Although I’m not sure why so many Chinese would be flying into Canada in January.) Mexico is pretty low and I believe it’s because it’s probably not a big tourist destination for the Chinese.

If you take away all the dead people, nobody died. 
 

If you take away the Bills super bowl losses, we are 4-0! 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Q-baby!

[Chef Jim]

7 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

It's like Trump has ESP. Time and time again he makes fools of these people who all think they're smarter than him.

I’ve found a great way to negotiate or to win over prospects is only ask questions you already know the answer to. 

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

If you take away all the dead people, nobody died. 

Math and science must’ve been tough subjects for you. 

[Chef Jim]

33 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

So there was no way possible to have lessened the pandemic in the US and disaster to the economy 

So if you tell me last month’s lottery numbers today I’d be a millionaire right?

[Q-baby!]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Math and science must’ve been tough subjects for you. 

Reality is tough for you. You can’t “take away” NYC. Stupid comment. 

[billsfan1959]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Math and science must’ve been tough subjects for you. 

 

Why waste your time responding to a poster whose two primary contributions to this thread have been his paraphilic like fascination with ball licking, and hoping for people to die so Trump won't be reelected?

[Magox]

2 hours ago, ALF said:

Navarro memos warning of mass coronavirus death circulated in January

 

In late January, President Trump's economic adviser Peter Navarro warned his White House colleagues the novel coronavirus could take more than half a million American lives and cost close to $6 trillion, according to memos obtained by Axios.

 

Navarro's grim estimates are set out in two memos — one dated Jan. 29 and addressed to the National Security Council, the other dated Feb. 23 and addressed to the president. The NSC circulated both memos around the White House and multiple agencie

 

The "naivete, arrogance and ignorance" of White House advisers who disagreed with Navarro "put the country and the world in jeopardy," Bannon said, adding that Navarro was sidelined from the task force after the memo.

 

The Jan 29 memo set out two stark choices "Aggressive Containment versus No Containment."

 

Navarro compared cost estimates for the choices and wrote that the Council of Economic Advisers' estimates for stopping travel from China to the U.S. would be $2.9 billion per month. If the virus turned out to be a pandemic, that travel ban could extend 12 months and cost the U.S. $34.6 billion.

Doing nothing (the "No Containment" option) could range from "zero economic costs" to $5.7 trillion depending on the lethality of the virus.

On the high end, he estimated a scenario in which the coronavirus could kill 543,000 Americans.

 

https://www.axios.com/exclusive-navarro-deaths-coronavirus-memos-january-da3f08fb-dce1-4f69-89b5-ea048f8382a9.html

 

Wow , if only they took Peter Navarro serious back then

The way Navarro handled the trade deals and everything else I have seen from him impresses the hell out of me.   
 

Very valuable asset to the administration 

[Q-baby!]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

 

Why waste your time responding to a poster whose two primary contributions to this thread have been his paraphilic like fascination with ball licking, and hoping for people to die so Trump won't be reelected?

Show me where I said that liar. 

[Warren Zevon]

4 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

Show me where I said that liar. 

 

It's easy to quote things idiots on this board have said - like the mega-creep below. I would not want him around any children.

 

10 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

Golf clap or at least some kind of clap. I don't know Doc, I've only been with a Disney child star. 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Gary Busey

[Q-baby!]

1 minute ago, Gary Busey said:

 

It's easy to quote things idiots on this board have said - like the mega-creep below. I would not want him around any children.

 

 

Probably hung out with Dr.Trump and his pedo friends. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

11 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

The evidence that social distancing worked is evident in the numbers -- the ones that are showing you were waaaaaay off with your projections/fear-mongering. That you want to ignore them is no surprise, but it's not really honest. 

Well, we're at day 77 since the first confirmed case, and we have confirmed that 0.1% of the US population has it. But, you know, if 60% of the US has it and the mortality rate is 2% then 4 million people will die.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Well, we're at day 77 since the first confirmed case, and we have confirmed that 0.1% of the US population has it. But, you know, if 60% of the US has it and the mortality rate is 2% then 4 million people will die.

 

Shhhhh....we're not allowed to talk about numbers now. "Emotions," that is the word for today...

[Q-baby!]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Shhhhh....we're not allowed to talk about numbers now. "Emotions," that is the word for today...

Actually, I think liar is the word for today! 

[Warren Zevon]

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Shhhhh....we're not allowed to talk about numbers now. "Emotions," that is the word for today...

We can take it a step further too. Let's assume that everyone tested was showing symptoms and only 20% of people show symptoms. That'd push the number to a whopping 0.5% of the population, and it would push the mortality rate down to 0.6%.

[SoCal Deek]

23 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

Reality is tough for you. You can’t “take away” NYC. Stupid comment. 

After all this time and discussion you still don’t know how this virus works or spreads or where it came from...do you? It’s just way easier to be hysterical. It’s an odd way to look at your world, but you and my nutty sister in law would be great friends.