The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Deranged Rhino]

 

 

 

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[Koko78]

34 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

At least he let them wait until 5pm to find out.

 

?

[Q-baby!]

1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

In that time, the evidence for my case has grown exponentially stronger, while the counter argument of many has all but been destroyed. This is objectively undeniable.

 

Keep thinking nothing's coming. You've been wrong about everything for years, why buck that trend now? 

And who are you presenting this case to? A bunch losers on a sub forum of a football site? 

15 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

 

At least he let them wait until 5pm to find out.

 

?

Oh, they already knew he was running away with his tail between his legs! ???

[B-Man]

 

 

WELL, THAT’S BECAUSE THEY WERE SCAMS WE CAN NO LONGER AFFORD: 

 

Covid-19 Is Pulling the Plug on Clean Energy Jobs: A new analysis warns that up to 500,000 jobs in the renewable energy industry will be wiped out by June, including ones in solar power, biofuels, and electric cars.

 

 

 

 

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[RochesterRob]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Well, 7 Days in May IS coming up.

 

 

Douglas, Lancaster, March ...............Can't beat it.

 

 

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  Damn good movie.

[Capco]

[North Buffalo]

On 4/22/2020 at 9:39 AM, westside2 said:

Rump? What are you? Two years old? Grow the ***** up!

Just parroting the President... really on here no one else has.

[shoshin]

3 hours ago, Magox said:

 

 

Im not sure what you are trying to say but what I was speaking to is that they look like geniuses compared to the rest of the world.   They didn’t have to restrict their lives and suffer quite as bad of an economic downturn as everyone else.  And they did the logical thing, which was try to protect the most at risk while allowing others to go on about life with social distancing measures.

Your post is a good one with respect to mortality stats. The hospitalization rate concerns me a lot more. 

[Boatdrinks]

25 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Your post is a good one with respect to mortality stats. The hospitalization rate concerns me a lot more. 

I’d like to see more numbers on the % of hospitalized that have an underlying health issue. NYC numbers were striking. This is looking more like a personal/ individual health issue . Still potential to flood hospitals , but it seems like they’ve ramped up capacity to deal with it. 

[shoshin]

Just now, Boatdrinks said:

I’d like to see more numbers on the % of hospitalized that have an underlying health issue. NYC numbers were striking. This is looking more like a personal/ individual health issue . Still potential to flood hospitals , but it seems like they’ve ramped up capacity to deal with it. 

Comorbidity drives hospitalizations as was covered well in the Time article earlier this week. But making sure our hospitals have capacity to deal with Covid and regular patients is probably the best metric for being open and how much to be open. 

[SectionC3]

6 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

What does Bill Barr have to do with you aligning yourself with some of the most immature, childish, angry posters here?  

Bill Barr is a lawyer who aligns himself with an immature, childish, and angry boss. 

4 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

 

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Fake news.  Nobody was arrested for being in the sun.  This is why you’re on the fake news list. 

[Magox]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

Your post is a good one with respect to mortality stats. The hospitalization rate concerns me a lot more. 

Which hospital data point concerned you?

[Chef Jim]

26 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

Bill Barr is a lawyer who aligns himself with an immature, childish, and angry boss. 

Ok so that is supposed to have me look at you in different light?  

[Cinga]

4 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

WELL, THAT’S BECAUSE THEY WERE SCAMS WE CAN NO LONGER AFFORD: 

 

Covid-19 Is Pulling the Plug on Clean Energy Jobs: A new analysis warns that up to 500,000 jobs in the renewable energy industry will be wiped out by June, including ones in solar power, biofuels, and electric cars.

 

 

 

 

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Don't worry, Democrats will throw more money we don't have at it to prop it up again. 

[shoshin]

8 hours ago, Magox said:

Which hospital data point concerned you?

There are no good numbers for that nationally and it would be a dumb national number to average across the country. What I was saying is that hospitalization rate or ICU beds available would be probably the best measure of entry into and progression through phased opening, regionally.  
 

For example, if your region has 10% capacity or less, close because things are about to get dire,  10-20, open with lots of restrictions. 20-40, open with fewer restrictions. Etc. 

 

That ensures the health care system can deal with this. If Covid is going to be around for a while and it clearly is, health care is going to be the limiting resource. It would seem that defining the staged opening with respect to that makes the most sense.
 

In my area, we still have a fair amount of capacity even though deaths are steady, but our governor has defined phased opening according to positive tests per population, which is a B word to achieve especially as testing capacity increases (hopefully). So our healthcare system will have massive capacity long before we ever reach our positive test threshold.  

Edited April 26, 2020 by shoshin

[plenzmd1]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

 

even the Times is getting it now..course most of their readership hates this dude...but still

Edited April 26, 2020 by plenzmd1

[Magox]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

There are no good numbers for that nationally and it would be a dumb national number to average across the country. What I was saying is that hospitalization rate or ICU beds available would be probably the best measure of entry into and progression through phased opening, regionally.  
 

For example, if your region has 10% capacity or less, close because things are about to get dire,  10-20, open with lots of restrictions. 20-40, open with fewer restrictions. Etc. 

 

That ensures the health care system can deal with this. If Covid is going to be around for a while and it clearly is, health care is going to be the limiting resource. It would seem that defining the staged opening with respect to that makes the most sense.
 

In my area, we still have a fair amount of capacity even though deaths are steady, but our governor has defined phased opening according to positive tests per population, which is a B word to achieve especially as testing capacity increases (hopefully). So our healthcare system will have massive capacity long before we ever reach our positive test threshold.  

 

Oh, I see.   I thought you were referring from data in the link I provided.   You are talking about from a capacity/utilization aspect so that we can gauge preparedness for outbreaks as one of the metrics that should be considered.  To see what areas can begin phasing in the workforce.  Correct?

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

Oh, I see.   I thought you were referring from data in the link I provided.   You are talking about from a capacity/utilization aspect so that we can gauge preparedness for outbreaks as one of the metrics that should be considered.  To see what areas can begin phasing in the workforce.  Correct?

Yes. Mortality is not the best metric to measure success in dealing with this and reopening. It’s a good measure to know for sure because if it’s high then we have more serious consequences for spread of Covid. It’s just not the measure that makes sense to control opening. 
 

Currently mortality is the only decent measure of progress we have but it’s a big macro number not without its own problems. 

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Yes. Mortality is not the best metric to measure success in dealing with this and reopening. It’s a good measure to know for sure because if it’s high then we have more serious consequences for spread of Covid. It’s just not the measure that makes sense to control opening. 
 

Currently mortality is the only decent measure of progress we have but it’s a big macro number not without its own problems. 

 

I do think mortality rates is a very important metric but it should categorized in age, Comorbidities, age + comorbidities.

 

I also think the incoming hospital data on who is being hospitalized and who is dying is also another important metric.

 

Also what you suggested in regards to hospital capacity and utilization would make sense.

 

Plus I think you have to consider all of the residual effects of the shutdown, not just economic but overall public health.   I mean, if someone dies from the Coronavirus, does that make it more important or takes precedence over people who die of a heart attack or suicide as a result of the shutdown?   A death is a death .

 

Did you see that NY times article I posted in the statistical thread?    Physicians in the US fear that based off of the dramatic drop offs in reported heart attacks that there may be more deaths that are being caused by heart attacks than the Coronavirus.   In Australia they conducted a research paper and they show more people have died of heart attacks in Australia than Coronavirus.

 

Even if this isn’t the case, I do think we can safely say there are many deaths occurring that are heart related due to not getting proper care due to the shutdowns.  Especially when you consider each year we have 650k deaths related to heart disease each year in the US.

 

All these things should be considered and I am 99% certain that Covid Public health outcomes is being weighted far more than the overall public health outcomes due to these shut downs.

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1253961989937823745