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transplantbillsfan

Josh Allen's statistical placement through 15 games vs 2018 season

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47 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

And that's the problem with these folks.  They really do seem to be rooting against Allen's success. 

 

Here's my take on what the next SIX games will tell us about Allen:

 

*  If Allen plays well and the Bills go 3 - 3 it will be a good sign that he's continuing to get better and is on his way towards developing into a solid NFL QB.  It won't be proof that he's made it but it will leave us encouraged that he will get there.

 

*  If Allen plays poorly and the Bills go 1 - 5 it will be cause for some concern.  But until we actually see the CONTEXT in which each of the games play out how much "concern" remains to be seen.  These last 6 games won't break him any more then they'll make him as our franchise QB.

 

At MINIMUM Allen needs 3 full seasons before he is fully evaluated.  IMO he should get 4 seasons given where he started from as a "project QB"  with a complete lack of offensive talent in his first season and then a complete overhaul of offensive personnel in his 2nd season.

 

 

What if Allen plays incredible and we go 0-6? Do we cut him?

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Simply put - THIS IS A MUST WIN GAME 

 

season is in serious jeopardy if we fail to get the W! 

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14 hours ago, GreggTX said:

23rd is better than 32nd. True enough, but it's nowhere near good enough. So the real question is how good can he be and how long will it take to get there? Chris Simms said his inaccuracy can be fixed, but we haven't seen that yet. In the meantime, we would do well to keep handing the ball off to Singletary. That worked quite well last Sunday.

 

I still have serious doubts about Josh, but I do like him and want him to succeed. Beane is the one I'm most worried about.

I think we have.  His accuracy to has greatly increased inside of 20 yards.  That's the majority of NFL throws.  His completion % has also increased.

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2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Why is it dumb?  They faced 2 good teams (And Philly is 5-5) so far. They are going to face 3 good teams now.  Won’t that say much more about Allen than putting up stats against the crappy Fins?

 

Because things change throughout the season.  Look at the whole picture not just a small window imo.  For instance if we removed all the bad teams from L. Jackson his  avg stat line per game would look something like 16comp 27att 59% 198 yards 1.25 TDs and that's only because he did well against HOU.  If I did this last week then Tyrod Taylor would look awesome compared to him.  But hey... MVP candidate!

Edited by Scott7975

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19 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Oh I totally agree with you.  My point, which I just stated in another response, is that a QBs stats would improve simply by improving the talent around him.

 

Regarding your point about the supporting cast around Josh being exponentially better than it was last year, I'm not sure I agree.  Perhaps because last year's cast was pretty weak.  I love Brown but I'm not sure he's a #1 receiver, relative to other #1s in the league.  He's certainly a very good #2.  I think this O has a ton of potential.  Overall, they are still below the NFL average in my opinion.


I think we are in the same place on this one. Better does not necessarily mean good enough. I do think the OL is average overall. WRs are just below. I don’t think either are terrible or flat out bad. Last year was terrible for both. 

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10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree we should play to his strengths, and those are not - at this point in his career - making a clutch throw on 3rd down with a full field read when everyone in the stadium knows you are going to throw. Run, run, pass is not what Josh is built to execute. Especially this week. The book on beating the Broncos D is throw on 1st down.

This should help the Bills I would have to look at last weeks 1st down plays but thru Cleveland the Bills tendencies was to pass on 1st down

 

just looked at the play by play 16 of 28 first down plays where runs

Edited by ILBillsfan

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2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I agree those other games shouldn’t be completely thrown out.  But We will learn a ton more about Allen versus the Pats and Cowboys than against a Miami team that was trying to tank.  

 

Ok well that I agree with

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17 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

QB passing yards per game minimum 150 attempts 

2018: 35th

2019: 26th

 

 

35th in pypg in a 32 team league.  Oh boy we had some fun last year!!

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7 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

This should help the Bills I would have to look at last weeks 1st down plays but thru Cleveland the Bills tendencies was to pass on 1st down

 

just looked at the play by play 16 of 28 first down plays where runs

 

I have watched the last 3 Broncos games. Their defense is predicated on stopping the run on first down and then allowing their pass rushers to tee off on 2nd and 3rd and long. The best down to pass against them on is 1st down. The Vikings spent the first half running Cook up the middle for 1, 0, 2, -1 etc. 2nd half even though Cousins missed on a couple where he went deep they passed on 1st down and moved the ball. 

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Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I have watched the last 3 Broncos games. Their defense is predicated on stopping the run on first down and then allowing their pass rushers to tee off on 2nd and 3rd and long. The best down to pass against them on is 1st down. The Vikings spent the first half running Cook up the middle for 1, 0, 2, -1 etc. 2nd half even though Cousins missed on a couple where he went deep they passed on 1st down and moved the ball. 

Please give One Bills Drive a call when you have a second

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Just now, FireChans said:

Please give One Bills Drive a call when you have a second

 

I am sure there is something league wide about 1st down passing being successful but I noticed it in that Browns game with Denver and when I have followed the trend it is stark with them as to the difference. You are not going to convert many 3rd and 10 + against them. Their rushers will get there and their secondary is good. You have to be in 2nd and 3rd and manageable and the way to do that is to pick up yards through the air on 1st down in that short and intermediate range. Make them adjust what they are doing. 

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1 hour ago, BringBackOrton said:

What if Allen plays incredible and we go 0-6? Do we cut him?

 

No.  That's why I used the word CONTEXT for each game in my post.

 

 

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16 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

You realize, of course, that Josh is on Pace to have similar passing TD numbers to Russell Wilson's first two seasons and that he's doing that with a LOT less surrounding talent?

 

Russell Wilson had 26 passing TDs in each of his first two years. Josh is "on pace" for 20 PASSING TDs. That sure as ***** isn't similar to me.

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The kid is a baller. He has to put together a string of good games and stay consistent. He has the potential to be really good. 

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3 hours ago, Pokebball said:

I prefer the eyeball test and based on that, I agree with you.  But my point is a better line, better RB and better WRs would make a QB's stats improve even if the QB remained static.

Of course- better supporting cast and we have an increased chance of elevated play. I like the trajectory and the fact other teams that have had their franchise guy are now about to lose that luxury i.e. Chargers, Pats, Steelers, and Saints soon enough also. 

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15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Except he isn't. Russ threw 26 touchdowns each of this first two seasons - that is 52. Josh has thrown 23 touchdowns to this point in his career. To get to the same number as Russ after two seasons he would need to average almost 5 passing touchdowns a game over the final 6 weeks.

 

He did, of course, only start 11 games his rookie year. If you pro-rata Russ's 52 touchdowns over 32 games it is 1.625 per game. If you multiply that by Josh's 27 starts it comes out just under 44, whereas Josh is on pace currently for 35 touchdowns by the end of year 2 so he is still a fair way off.

 

I presume you are throwing in his rushing touchdowns too.... where he has a 10 touchdown lead on Wilson's first two seasons with 6 still to play. His rushing TDs are nice. And they buy him more time as he continues to develop as a Quarterback who can read the field when things happen quicker in the redzone. But at this stage he is decidedly not the passer Russell Wilson or say a Deshaun Watson (another mobile QB) were in their first two years. That is probably to be expected - they played at major colleges and started in big college football games. Josh played at Wyoming in comparison.

 

I'm not correcting you to criticise Josh but the statement on his passing numbers being equal to Wilson's is misleading.  

We can only wish Allen was or will someday be comparable to Wilson. 

 

Wilson is the best. 

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9 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

No you're not.

 

I'm sorry. I like to evaluate my favorite team rather than just cheer for them. I don't buy jerseys of current players because they come and go. I buy throwbacks.

 

I'm a Bills fan, not a fan of individual players. I want whatever is best for the Bills. If you notice I've been very critical of Allen because he's a below average QB, and you can't consistently win with below average QB play. That said I recognize the talent and there is something to develop. I've never called for him to be benched. In fact I have no interest in drafting another QB in the 1st few rounds. I want Allen to be starter next season no matter what happens the next 5 games. I also would like him to have consistency at OC. I want Daboll back and Dorsey back. I want WR depth added. I want a RT added.

 

I will continue to be hard on Allen because I have high expectations. They aren't unrealistic, but they are high. 

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17 hours ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Russell Wilson had 26 passing TDs in each of his first two years. Josh is "on pace" for 20 PASSING TDs. That sure as ***** isn't similar to me.

Technically Allen would only need 2 passing TD's in each remaining game to hit 25 passing TDs.  Its not entirely impossible.  He has done at least that in 4 out of the last 6 games.

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Allen I believe is tied for 6th in the NFL with 20 total TDs. 

 

That's good through 10 games. I'm hoping he can reach 30 total.

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Maybe we should tell the coaches to run a TE out on a pattern with Allen when we do those designed QB TD runs, that way he can flip it to them in the end zone for a passing TD instead of all these lame running TD's.

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