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10 decision coins: Josh Allen

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51 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I think the more interesting framing is coins to beane vs McD

 

While the happy family is nice- does a little more discord help push guys past their comfort zone and into better places? For instance does McD go harder to win now if he doesn’t feel incredibly safe with the GM? Does beane push more talent on the roster even if not perfect culture fits if it’s not the guy that got him the gig? 
 

It’s a fine line before dysfunction but something I’ve pondered a bit the last year or two. 

 

EVERY team wants the talented, high character, uncomplicated personality players........supply of them is nowhere near demand.........so if you are holding out for a starting lineup full of them you are going to time-out as a HC/GM combo before you can pull that off.    

 

The sooner they realize that the better.    They played the role of scared money at the deadline........to the point where they didn't even put in a claim on a free Josh Gordon.

 

 Even Jauron realized he blew it that way...........but it was too late and he just ended up looking like a clueless screwball by signing TO and trying to build a no-huddle offense with Turk Schonert and Trent Edwards at the controls.

 

Better to ease yourself into the risk pool before the urgency to win pushes you all the way in.

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12 hours ago, H2o said:

Roethlisberger's 3rd was his worst year of his career completing less than 60% of his passes and throwing 18 TD's to 23 INT's. Year 5 he was less than 60% as well with 17 TD's to 15 INT's. Rivers sat for 2 years behind Drew Brees before he even got his shot. 

 

7 hours ago, leonbus23 said:

Sure. Okay. 

What? :lol: Those are facts bro. Sorry if it is hard for you to accept. :thumbsup:

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I'd say 7 to 3 or 8 to 2 is about right. I expect the Bills to be players in the Quarterback market at the draft. Certainly not in the first two days but I would expect them to take a guy somewhere on day 3 just as good roster management. The type of guy they take at that point is worth watching. If they go for a guy who looks "solid backup" type then it tells us they are still all in 10 to 0 with their coins on Josh. If they go for more of a project high upside guy maybe it suggests the Bills are in that 8 to 2 territory as well. Plenty of story of this season still be written though.

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19 hours ago, Bangarang said:

You keep investing in the offense. If Allen can’t take advantage of the added talent then hopefully the next guy we draft will. 
 

Allen is the starter this year and likely heading into next. If things stay just as they are with him then we can say it’s time to move on. Come next year the leash should be shorter.

Yup, next year will be the critical year, just as the 3rd year is for Trubisky...I have a hard time elieving the administration will just give him a fourth year starting if Allen does not greatly improve next season...

Edited by JaCrispy

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12 minutes ago, london_bills said:

The gm and coach are not going to want their careers to be defined by an inconsistent QB 

 

 

Name me a GM & Coach who screwed up on a Round 1 QB and remained long term .. doesn't happen.

 

The reason you draft a top 10 pick QB is your team sucks/sucked ... if your team still sucks 1-2-3-4 years later ... you're dumped. 

 

It's Year 2 .. R-E-L-A-X .... read below on 4th Quarter Comebacks ...  I'll take that all day long!

 

The other statistic that stamps Allen as a winner is his number of fourth-quarter, game-winning drives. Over the past two seasons, Allen has directed six game-winning drives, according to Pro Football Reference, tying him for second in that category with Russell Wilson. Only Drew Brees has more, with eight.

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  Comp % YPG RATE 4QC GWD
QB 1 62.1 235.3 85.7 2 3
JA 59.9 213.2 81.6 3 4

 

 

What do you think of those #'s by a two 2nd year QB's  *NOTE Josh's season isn't over

 

NOTE - QB 1 never had above a 68% comp ratio and his career comp is 64.1%

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10 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:
  Comp % YPG RATE 4QC GWD
QB 1 62.1 235.3 85.7 2 3
JA 59.9 213.2 81.6 3 4

 

 

What do you think of those #'s by a two 2nd year QB's  *NOTE Josh's season isn't over

 

NOTE - QB 1 never had above a 68% comp ratio and his career comp is 64.1%

 

I think they are a strange combination of stats to cherry pick and you have to look across the piece. You can't look at the stats that accentuate the things he does well without also presenting the stats that highlight the areas where he has had struggles. 

 

EDIT: also that other QB threw it 601 times that year (I knew instantly who it was btw) and at current pace Allen is 100 attempts behind that. 

Edited by GunnerBill

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49 minutes ago, london_bills said:

The gm and coach are not going to want their careers to be defined by an inconsistent QB 

 

 

you do know he is a young project qb without a true number one receiver, and questionable play calling

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27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think they are a strange combination of stats to cherry pick and you have to look across the piece. You can't look at the stats that accentuate the things he does well without also presenting the stats that highlight the areas where he has had struggles. 

 

EDIT: also that other QB threw it 601 times that year (I knew instantly who it was btw) and at current pace Allen is 100 attempts behind that. 

 

In this case the HC and OC thought QB1 should be a PASS happy guy and not have a balanced offense.  That was his mistake

 

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I dunno. Do nothing with coins. Prioritize adding a WR in the draft, a mid-late round QB, and Andy Dalton. 

 

1- WR can help our team and Allen and is a need this off-season. I prefer draft to FA since our 2 top WRs are already 30

2- plans for the future if Allen isn't it. Seeing teams win games with minshew and Kyle Allen makes me think it's something where you should constantly be drafting.

3- have an upgraded backup if Allen fails.  It may put extra pressure and shorten the leash, but Id want a backup who can possibly help get us back to the playoffs

 

If drafted QB looks good preseason? Wonderful, carry on the 53 and stop carrying a fullback or extra lineman or whatever. 

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22 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

In this case the HC and OC thought QB1 should be a PASS happy guy and not have a balanced offense.  That was his mistake

 

 

And they missed the playoffs that year at 9-7.... but that wasn't their priority. Their priority was developing the Quarterback. Has worked out pretty well. 

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21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And they missed the playoffs that year at 9-7.... but that wasn't their priority. Their priority was developing the Quarterback. Has worked out pretty well. 

Oh HELL yes it was their priority !!! 

 

It is ALWAYS their priority.  They were SUPER BOWL contenders and the bastards still are. 

 

 

Saint Thomas had very comparable numbers to that of Josh Allen in year 2. 

 

2001 they had balance. 2002 they dumped their leading RB and wanted Tom to be pass happy.  When they missed the playoffs they went out and got another RB to lead the charge and take the pressure off the 6th round QB.  

 

Sadly the rest is history 

 

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47 minutes ago, dneveu said:

I dunno. Do nothing with coins. Prioritize adding a WR in the draft, a mid-late round QB, and Andy Dalton. 

 

1- WR can help our team and Allen and is a need this off-season. I prefer draft to FA since our 2 top WRs are already 30

2- plans for the future if Allen isn't it. Seeing teams win games with minshew and Kyle Allen makes me think it's something where you should constantly be drafting.

3- have an upgraded backup if Allen fails.  It may put extra pressure and shorten the leash, but Id want a backup who can possibly help get us back to the playoffs

 

If drafted QB looks good preseason? Wonderful, carry on the 53 and stop carrying a fullback or extra lineman or whatever. 

 

I suspect the Bills could win games with Barkley at QB if they had a Leonard Fournette or Christian McCaffrey in the backfield. 

 

The more I think about it the more alarming the Bill's shortcomings at the offensive skill positions becomes.  This is a problem for two reasons:

 

1)  It limits our offense which in turn costs us winnable games.

 

2)  Makes it much more difficult to accurately evaluate our young QB. 

 

The most urgent need on offense at this stage in the Bill's rebuild is NOT another QB.  Barkley is a fine back-up option.  Our most urgent need is to upgrade our offensive personnel which starts at Tackle, TE, WR & RB. 

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18 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

Oh HELL yes it was their priority !!! 

 

It is ALWAYS their priority.  They were SUPER BOWL contenders and the bastards still are. 

 

 

Saint Thomas had very comparable numbers to that of Josh Allen in year 2. 

 

2001 they had balance. 2002 they dumped their leading RB and wanted Tom to be pass happy.  When they missed the playoffs they went out and got another RB to lead the charge and take the pressure off the 6th round QB.  

 

Sadly the rest is history 

 

 

I don't agree. They were going to work out after riding their defense and having a game manager in 2001 whether the young QB was in fact going to be the guy the built around. Of course they wanted to win but they were not going to hide the QB in order to do so. That way lies ruin in my opinion. 

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10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

What we are seeing is this Bills team try to make their young QB prove he can carry a team rather than the now standard approach of propping the  young QB up with offensive talent.   

 

You can make an argument that propping up a QB like the Rams did with Jared Goff created a false positive on a QB who maybe isn't really that special.    I'd argue that it put the Rams in a SB that they could have won and that juice alone was worth the squeeze.   But also I'd add that he might get better in the coming years as he learns to live without the personnel and coaching advantages he had in years 2 and 3 of his career.

 

Maybe Allen learns and grows into a more well rounded QB by being forced into a complicated offense that doesn't suit his skills and asks a lot of him.    Maybe 3 years from now he will be far ahead of a guy like Lamar Jackson who is having a simplified offense built around his skills.   But to me it's not worth the risk of wrecking this talented young QB they invested so much in.   Beane needs to GET IT DONE and get an arsenal of talent for the man.   

 

I think these are astute observations.  I'm not sure it's entirely by design but the reality is this is exactly what the Bills are doing with Allen.  The Buffalo coaches had to know that their TE & RB situations were problematic going into the season and that the WR's were at best only going to be adequate assuming that BOTH Brown & Beasley worked out (which they have IMO).

 

And this has the potential of working in the Bill's favor by creating a more well rounded & resilient QB.  My sense is that in the interview process one of the things they liked about Allen was his mental toughness.  And that has only been reinforced by his time in Buffalo.  So they may think that the risk of messing Allen up is low because of his nature.

 

But I'm with you that this is a concern.  Name me a young QB asked to direct an offense with as weak a running game as the Bills have.  Or who can't rely on throwing screen passes because the Bills don't have the personnel to execute them.  Allen rarely does check downs on 3rd & long and he's expected to convert those plays.  For all practical purposes the Bills have thrown Allen to the wolves. 

 

I'm fine with a sink or swim approach here IF the Bills are reasonably confident Allen can hold up mentally & physically.  So far he shows every sign of being able to.  His frustration stems from his own play and the teams inability to win every game.  This is an element of his personality that the Bills were attracted to.  And as long as this is the case the experience he's getting this year is a positive.

 

But starting at the end of this season and continuing through next years draft the Bill's must focus like a laser on the offensive side of the ball.  If it means sacrificing a bit on the defensive side so be it.  I'm looking at a minimum of TWO BIG FA signings for the offense and the top 2 draft picks going to the O as well.

 

 

 

Edited by CincyBillsFan
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2 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

Name me a GM & Coach who screwed up on a Round 1 QB and remained long term .. doesn't happen.

 

The reason you draft a top 10 pick QB is your team sucks/sucked ... if your team still sucks 1-2-3-4 years later ... you're dumped. 

 

It's Year 2 .. R-E-L-A-X .... read below on 4th Quarter Comebacks ...  I'll take that all day long!

 

The other statistic that stamps Allen as a winner is his number of fourth-quarter, game-winning drives. Over the past two seasons, Allen has directed six game-winning drives, according to Pro Football Reference, tying him for second in that category with Russell Wilson. Only Drew Brees has more, with eight.

I'm quite confident Allen doesn't have it. I'd like him to but don't think he has.

 

Your talking like mcdermott and Beane have to be resigned to the fact that if Allen doesn't pan out they go - not necessarily. If they draft an insurance policy it would be an intelligent decision. 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, tcampbell104 said:

you do know he is a young project qb without a true number one receiver, and questionable play calling

Yes. But I want an elite QB. 

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13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

What we are seeing is this Bills team try to make their young QB prove he can carry a team rather than the now standard approach of propping the  young QB up with offensive talent.   

 

You can make an argument that propping up a QB like the Rams did with Jared Goff created a false positive on a QB who maybe isn't really that special.    I'd argue that it put the Rams in a SB that they could have won and that juice alone was worth the squeeze.   But also I'd add that he might get better in the coming years as he learns to live without the personnel and coaching advantages he had in years 2 and 3 of his career.

 

Maybe Allen learns and grows into a more well rounded QB by being forced into a complicated offense that doesn't suit his skills and asks a lot of him.    Maybe 3 years from now he will be far ahead of a guy like Lamar Jackson who is having a simplified offense built around his skills.   But to me it's not worth the risk of wrecking this talented young QB they invested so much in.   Beane needs to GET IT DONE and get an arsenal of talent for the man.   

This is a really smart take. The thing I'd add is that perhaps they're factoring in that Allen is actually pretty bright (high wonderlic and clearly intelligent in interviews), and tossing him into the fire with a complex offense is the best way to advance his career, which could end up being very long (I hope). I also think he has mental toughness too; he doesn't look like he's going to be a Tim Couch/David Carr type who is going to wilt. 

 

As I've said elsewhere, our assessment of the offense would be a LOT different if he had hit on just three of those many deep throws to wide open WRs. The fact that he hasn't hit on any of them does a couple of things: first, it brings the offensive numbers way down relative to other teams, all of which hit the occasional 70-yard, 7-point deep ball pass; and second, it allows defensive coordinators to gamble with cover-zero blitzes or by lining up 8 in the box at a disproportionate rate because they're assessing the numbers just like us and assuming that the chances of him hitting the deep ball are slim to none.  To his credit, Daboll is getting those deep guys open, and it's on Allen to start hitting them. If he does, everything about the offense will change, and for the better. 


Bear in mind that the Bills' offensive numbers with Taylor looked pretty good because he regularly hit deep passes, especially in 2015.  This one is from 2016, but it's indicative. It's an 84 yard, 7-point play, and the ball was perfectly placed with the sort of arc that Allen's balls don't have:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EqEUD3jJLE

 

Edited by dave mcbride
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6 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I think these are astute observations.  I'm not sure it's entirely by design but the reality is this is exactly what the Bills are doing with Allen.  The Buffalo coaches had to know that their TE & RB situations were problematic going into the season and that the WR's were at best only going to be adequate assuming that BOTH Brown & Beasley worked out (which they have IMO).

 

And this has the potential of working in the Bill's favor by creating a more well rounded & resilient QB.  My sense is that in the interview process one of the things they liked about Allen was his mental toughness.  And that has only been reinforced by his time in Buffalo.  So they may think that the risk of messing Allen up is low because of his nature.

 

But I'm with you that this is a concern.  Name me a young QB asked to direct an offense with as weak a running game as the Bills have.  Or who can't rely on throwing screen passes because the Bills don't have the personnel to execute them.  Allen rarely does check downs on 3rd & long and he's expected to convert those plays.  For all practical purposes the Bills have thrown Allen to the wolves. 

 

I'm fine with a sink or swim approach here IF the Bills are reasonably confident Allen can hold up mentally & physically.  So far he shows every sign of being able to.  His frustration stems from his own play and the teams inability to win every game.  This is an element of his personality that the Bills were attracted to.  And as long as this is the case the experience he's getting this year is a positive.

 

But starting at the end of this season and continuing through next years draft the Bill's must focus like a laser on the offensive side of the ball.  If it means sacrificing a bit on the defensive side so be it.  I'm looking at a minimum of TWO BIG FA signings for the offense and the top 2 draft picks going to the O as well.

 

 

 

 

 

Ultimately it comes down to this:   there is a reason teams stopped using the sink or swim approach with young QB's.

 

They aren't outsmarting anyone or thinking outside the box doing it this way they are just taking a risk on an approach that's proven outdated.

 

I agree that maybe they think Allen is smarter and tougher and more dedicated to his craft but how do they know?

 

Maybe after a few years of what seems like poor coaching and a lack of organizational commitment to the offensive side of the ball he comes to the realization that he's not going to the HOF anymore but is young and rich and can cash nice paychecks as a backup in this league without much effort or injury and decides to focus on his golf game.

 

People assume all talented young QB's that whither do so out of shellshock and an inability to improve but I think a loss of interest in being great kills more of them.

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4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

This is a really smart take. The thing I'd add is that perhaps they're factoring in that Allen is actually pretty bright (high wonderlic and clearly intelligent in interviews), and tossing him into the fire with a complex offense is the best way to advance his career, which could end up being very long (I hope). I also think he has mental toughness too; he doesn't look like he's going to be a Tim Couch/David Carr type who is going to wilt. 

 

As I've said elsewhere, our assessment of the offense would be a LOT different if he had hit on just three of those many deep throws to wide open WRs. The fact that he hasn't hit on any of them does a couple of things: first, it brings the offensive numbers way down relative to other teams, all of which hit the occasional 70-yard, 7-point deep ball pass; and second, it allows defensive coordinators to gamble with cover-zero blitzes or by lining up 8 in the box at a disproportionate rate because they're assessing the numbers just like us and assuming that the chances of him hitting the deep ball are slim to none.  To his credit, Daboll is getting those deep guys open, and it's on Allen to start hitting them. If he does, everything about the offense will change, and for the better. 


Bear in mind that the Bills' offensive numbers with Taylor looked pretty good because he regularly hit deep passes, especially in 2015.  This one is from 2016, but it's indicative. It's an 84 yard, 7-point play, and the ball was perfectly placed with the sort of arc that Allen's balls don't have:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EqEUD3jJLE

 

 

 

That was a thing of beauty from TT.   That was year 2 and his deep ball game really fell off as the year went on.  In his first year in Buffalo Tyrod showed a lot of touch on those deep passes but it evaporated as he turned into a check down and short pass specialist after his critics insisted he couldn't make those throws.  

 

Allen seems to have improved measurably on his short throws after an offseason where people questioned if he could make them.  The similar loss of deep ball skill is eerie.  

 

It does make you wonder if he is really exceptional enough to play the sink/swim game with if he loses his touch on one throw while trying to perfect another.    Tyrod wasn't.

 

I am a big Allen fan and feel like he can be really good but I don't think he's going to be Tom Brady in young John Elway's body..........that's a lot to ask and possibly a set-up to fail.

 

Kinda' reminds me of what they expect from Edmunds at MLB.    They want him to mirror the RB position on the defensive side of the ball when he's built like pass rushing 3-4 OLB.

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Just take all 10 coins, close your eyes and throw them in a fountain. Wishing for Josh to figure it out. That would be more productive. 

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