100% problem with the Deep Ball this year.

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

Brees get 5000 yard seasons, 300 yard games are nothing to him. Can't believe your using him to compare.

 

I can't believe you are using the old tired "cant believe you are comparing them" line.  He is comparing a specific stat between two QBs.  Maybe Josh should be compared to a defensive end instead?

[USABuffaloFan]

22 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

https://brickwallblitz.com/2019/02/22/the-2018-19-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/#JameisWinston

 

 

He took far more attempts at throws over 31 yards than most.  And he's rated higher per the Football Outsiders guys than 8 other QBs .......some of whom attempted less than 10 throws over 31 yards.  

 

It's a misleading stupid stat bc you don't win in this league consistently throwing 31 plus freaking yards.  You need elite WRs to consistently do that like Nuke, AB, Jones, Thomas...

He has Zero this year, missing by 10ft or more on many of them. Throwing them on 3rd and 3. He is throwing them to our slowest receiver in Beasley. I never said I did not like Allen. Just saying he will not be leading us to the playoffs with zero long throws made.

[HOUSE]

Josh Allen's long passes are fine, we need some wide receivers with longer arms.

 

[Scott7975]

Honestly, I think some of them like Beasley one was just a throw away.  Others you can tell when he gets upset that he missed them.

[Buffalo716]

8 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

Brees get 5000 yard seasons, 300 yard games are nothing to him. Can't believe your using him to compare.

Im not comparing him to anybody. If people can talk about joshs deep accuracy anybody else's deep accuracy is allowed to be brought up

[USABuffaloFan]

28 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

But Allen isn't even close to his receivers.

 

How do you "learn" how to throw a deep ball accurately? Tua is the best I've ever seen at throwing a deep ball. He didn't "learn" how. He's just naturally good at it.

Losman was pretty good, same with Bledsoe

27 minutes ago, Tesla03 said:

we need to just stop with trying to turn Allen into Drew Brees and focus on his strengths 

 

he will never be an elite pocket passer. anyone with half a brain could have told you that when he got drafted. 

If the coaches would run 30-35 times a game, I would use play action or West Coast offense like with Steve Young

27 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Last year Brady was 7 of 21 in 31+.  Allen was 6 of 21 in 31+.  Both were actually bad.  They were around 28-30%.  The middle of the league was around 40%.  I don't believe this discludes yards after the catch.  I found it in something called "the deep ball project" if anyone wants to google it for themselves.

Allen was not 6 of 21 in 31+ in the air, he had 3 last year, think all to Foster.

[Real McClappy]

33 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

Where are you getting BUST from, he is 6-3 this year. My question is can he go 5-2 with the teams we play next and can he win in the playoffs? Can we go 5-2 with Barkley and does Barkley lose us more games? This year we are winning because of our defense keeping cans within Josh's reach. this is only happening with bad teams though.

You are obviously not paying attention well to the thread. Benching Allen now when showing progression is the art of stupidity and one that get's a HC and FO axed. If you start Barkley over a healthy Allen at this stage you are considering Allen a Bust.  It's really that black and white.

 

To your questions, you play Allen 100% weather he goes 2-5 or 5-2, this remains to be seen.  I can careless what arm chair GM's think Barkley can do due to a 232yd 2TD game against the Jets. 

 

[USABuffaloFan]

27 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

i'd love to bring the hammer down on him but he's got a few more years to learn this game

 

Kelly took Year 3 to start making the Bills epic, even after semi-pro experience in the USFL

 

 

True as far as wins go but Kelly developed those good years throwing 300 yard games and allot of INT's learning. How can Josh learn missing by 10 yards throwing on third and 3 to Beasley?

28 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Aaron Rodgers did not throw a good deep ball coming out and now he has one of the world's best. He had bad mechanics and it hindered his delivery

 

Same with Josh on his deep ball mechanics. Rodgers had 3 years on the bench to work out the kinks

 

Coaches coach for a reason. If Josh is coachable , then he should be able to hone in his mechanics and throw deep as soon as next season

Who is our QB coach?

[Old Coot]

On the plus side Allen's footwork has greatly improved from last year.

[row_33]

1 minute ago, USABuffaloFan said:

True as far as wins go but Kelly developed those good years throwing 300 yard games and allot of INT's learning. How can Josh learn missing by 10 yards throwing on third and 3 to Beasley?

 

 

i in no way want to force any of Jim Kelly's accomplishments as normative for Josh's career

 

Joe Ferguson's accomplishments for sure....

 

 

[Real McClappy]

12 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Josh Allen's long passes are fine, we need some wide receivers with longer arms.

 

Don't forget big hands

[USABuffaloFan]

27 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

If Josh cleans up his mechanics on deep balls he can easily be a big time deep ball thrower

 

Rodgers couldn't throw deep coming out because bad mechanics , he corrected them and the deep ball came

I am not arguing he can. I am asking if you think he can the next 7 games. That is all we got this year!

[Helpmenow]

25 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

 

I stopped reading right after the bold sentence.   

 

Should their coaches quit on Elway, Manning, Kelly, Farve, after 9 games?   None of them looked very good at that point.  

Kelly had 3600 yards with that team in 86.

[USABuffaloFan]

28 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He missed a huge one to Brown that could have been a monster play.  Some of them are just slightly off which kills YAC.  He did have some great balls in the middle of the field.  I could be wrong but he seems much more comfortable at hitting stationary targets rather than moving ones. 

He can gun sling a ball in when he sees his target, you are not wrong.

[Gugny]

7 hours ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Your probably right. The coaches are brain washing him to play conservatively and protect the football so he is becoming scared to throw interceptions on the deep ball.

 

They are damaging him.

7 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Matt Barkley threw more completed long passes in one game, then Allen has in 2 years

 

Matt Barkley has nothing to lose.

[BananaB]

After the two long INTs against the Pats he got up in front of the media and said McD brought in our record of how many wins to losses they have when he throws multiple INTs. Since then all his deep passes are long.  I think right now he is terrified to throw a pick and it’s in his head.  Meanwhile, he has went 4 games not throwing an Int. I bet McD loves that. 

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

I am not arguing he can. I am asking if you think he can the next 7 games. That is all we got this year!

Realistically he can hit on a few this season but I wouldn't expect a super increase this season

 

It's a mechanics thing which is muscle memory which he will have to correct in the off-season

[HOUSE]

 

[USABuffaloFan]

26 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Ok.  Did Josh beat Tennessee, yes.  

Did Mahomes, no.

 

Straw-man arguments rarely work in anyones favor unless you're just trying to say "I'm right!".

Mahomes was picked 8th 1st round with Bills pick. We used KC's pick and our own pick to get Josh Allen the following year at 7th, one round earlier. Mahomes won allot of games last year and almost beat Brady. Mahomes can throw all the passes. Allen is no where ready to match up to him but has won allot of games one year later, same point in their careers. Josh is not at the same point as Mahomes was last year at this time. No way the outcomes will be the same!

[row_33]

gotta slug it out with Josh, folks

 

this isn't Atari where i press reset or make a trade for the QB i wish was here

 

 

[USABuffaloFan]

24 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Josh Allen's long passes are fine, we need some wide receivers with longer arms.

 

EXACTLY!

[JoPar_v2]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

What's his accuracy% on throws 20 yard downfield? 

 

I bet it's alot better and that IS considered a deep ball

 

Throwing 30-40-50 yards downfield has ALWAYS BEEN A CRAPSHOOT

Lies. Keep making excuses for the kid. 

[USABuffaloFan]

23 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Honestly, I think some of them like Beasley one was just a throw away.  Others you can tell when he gets upset that he missed them.

So you call a play on 3rd and 3, typically is made at over 50%, that is a throw away?

[TroutDog]

The thread title, in and of itself, let’s the people around here saying that he ‘had the long ball last year’ crowd know that they’re incorrect. 

 

While the long ball is exciting and something to ‘make me wanna shout,’I would much rather have long sustained drives. The occasional deep ball throw will keep opposing D’s true. 
 

Josh is a developing QB, simple as that. Small school pedigree with HUGE upside. It was a gamble and one that I, for one, think will pay off long term. Short term? He’s 6-3 this year so the arrow is pointing up. Give that to the D if you want but in 6 games out of 9, he’s done enough in his 20th start. 

[Buffalo716]

Just now, JoPar_v2 said:

Lies. Keep making excuses for the kid. 

Whats a lie that throwing 40-50 yard downfield is a crapshoot?

 

I don't make excuses for Bills players I watch the game objectively

 

Brees had a 11% accuracy on balls over 30 yatds last season. One of the most accurate QBs in the world

 

40 yard throws are crapshoots and are year by year statistically. You can go from 30% one year to 10% the next

[USABuffaloFan]

18 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

You are obviously not paying attention well to the thread. Benching Allen now when showing progression is the art of stupidity and one that get's a HC and FO axed. If you start Barkley over a healthy Allen at this stage you are considering Allen a Bust.  It's really that black and white.

 

To your questions, you play Allen 100% weather he goes 2-5 or 5-2, this remains to be seen.  I can careless what arm chair GM's think Barkley can do due to a 232yd 2TD game against the Jets. 

 

Point taken, if Bills finish 9-7 after last year going the way it goes does McDermott survive?

[oldmanfan]

Just now, USABuffaloFan said:

Point taken, if Bills finish 9-7 after last year going the way it goes does McDermott survive?

Of course.

[london_bills]

1 hour ago, USABuffaloFan said:

Not writing this to bash Josh Allen, I like him and think he SOME DAY will be a great QB. The problem I have is the Bills could have won two more games with a passer that can hit the long ball. Can Josh throw far, YES. Does Josh have touch to drop a ball over the top shoulder, haven't seen that yet. He is 6-3 so what do you do about this that 9 games hasn't shown you. Can the Bills offense beat Baltimore, Dallas, New England, Pittsburgh and even Denver. Is this Bills team just a QB away? Can they win this year in the playoffs? If your answering YES than Barkley must be given a shot. If your not sure or NO then stay the course and see if Josh develops. I am not saying get rid of Josh, just saying you never hand someone a job without working for it. Josh's upside is huge if this is done right. He is not playing that much better than Taylor at this point of his career. Tough decision, at this point though I see this season's playoff chances in jeopardy with Josh playing like this. 

Hi usabuffalofan, thanks for the post. Interesting read. I can understand the barkley mention for the future games if nothing changes. 

 

When I read Allen 'SOMEDAY will be a great QB' - 

 

this is indicative of alot of stuff fans and coaches say, that he just needs to develop to be that.

 

I don't have the same belief that someday he will be great, based on what I've seen and am seeing. 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by london_bills

[JoPar_v2]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

I appreciate the effort. I was hoping there was a single source for league wide stats in this area. 36 is a lot of attempts of over 30 air yards, but I’m not surprised as Allen led the league in air yards per attempt last season. I’m guessing it’s way down this year. 

is it a lot though? It works out to what? About 2 per start he’s made? 2 a game seems pretty reasonable to me. And 3 for 36 is pathetic. Not all those misses are solely Allen’s fault, but we all know many of them are.

[row_33]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Whats a lie that throwing 40-50 yard downfield is a crapshoot?

 

I don't make excuses for Bills players I watch the game objectively

 

Brees had a 11% accuracy on balls over 30 yatds last season. One of the most accurate QBs in the world

 

40 yard throws are crapshoots and are year by year statistically. You can go from 30% one year to 10% the next

 

Brees, oh yeah we had that thread telling me Josh was just like him a little while ago...

 

that wasn't you i hope 

 

 

[USABuffaloFan]

13 minutes ago, BananaB said:

After the two long INTs against the Pats he got up in front of the media and said McD brought in our record of how many wins to losses they have when he throws multiple INTs. Since then all his deep passes are long.  I think right now he is terrified to throw a pick and it’s in his head.  Meanwhile, he has went 4 games not throwing an Int. I bet McD loves that. 

The way he is throwing them I would be happy if he has Zero long ball attempts the rest of the year. Run 50%, use play action and his legs to spread defenses. Please keep Lee off the field, that is 2 less penalties a game.

[Buffalo716]

Just now, row_33 said:

 

Brees, oh yeah we had that thread telling me Josh was just like him a little while ago...

 

that wasn't you i hope 

 

 

Definitely not and I'm not comparing them at all

 

Stats show the  deep ball is Fickle and inconsistent

[USABuffaloFan]

15 minutes ago, BananaB said:

After the two long INTs against the Pats he got up in front of the media and said McD brought in our record of how many wins to losses they have when he throws multiple INTs. Since then all his deep passes are long.  I think right now he is terrified to throw a pick and it’s in his head.  Meanwhile, he has went 4 games not throwing an Int. I bet McD loves that. 

Should have kept Taylor then, lol!

9 minutes ago, row_33 said:

gotta slug it out with Josh, folks

 

this isn't Atari where i press reset or make a trade for the QB i wish was here

 

 

Barkley is said to be the best backup QB in the league. If Josh were a backup would he have that claim?

[BananaB]

Just now, USABuffaloFan said:

Should have kept Taylor then, lol!

Yeah, he was great at the deep ball until teams figured out that’s all he could do. Then it was just a lot shitload of 3 and outs. 

[USABuffaloFan]

8 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

The thread title, in and of itself, let’s the people around here saying that he ‘had the long ball last year’ crowd know that they’re incorrect. 

 

While the long ball is exciting and something to ‘make me wanna shout,’I would much rather have long sustained drives. The occasional deep ball throw will keep opposing D’s true. 
 

Josh is a developing QB, simple as that. Small school pedigree with HUGE upside. It was a gamble and one that I, for one, think will pay off long term. Short term? He’s 6-3 this year so the arrow is pointing up. Give that to the D if you want but in 6 games out of 9, he’s done enough in his 20th start. 

He needs to stop throwing 40+ in the air

[flmike]

Here's a question. What QB developed something he didn't have in college, in the NFL?

 

 

[JoPar_v2]

1 minute ago, flmike said:

Here's a question. What QB developed something he didn't have in college, in the NFL?

 

 

Ryan leaf and his pill dependency?

[USABuffaloFan]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Whats a lie that throwing 40-50 yard downfield is a crapshoot?

 

I don't make excuses for Bills players I watch the game objectively

 

Brees had a 11% accuracy on balls over 30 yatds last season. One of the most accurate QBs in the world

 

40 yard throws are crapshoots and are year by year statistically. You can go from 30% one year to 10% the next

 

8 minutes ago, london_bills said:

Hi usabuffalofan, thanks for the post. Interesting read. I can understand the barkley mention for the future games if nothing changes. 

 

When I read Allen 'SOMEDAY will be a great QB' - 

 

this is indicative of alot of stuff fans and coaches say, that he just needs to develop to be that.

 

I don't have the same belief that someday he will be great, based on what I've seen and am seeing. 

 

 

I am basing that on he has become a 60% passer in less than a year when everyone said he couldn't. He almost ran for 1000 yards last year and hurdled a linebacker. He is tough as nails and ran for 2 TD's Sunday. There is allot going for him but he has a OC that doesn't help him. Josh should be doing play action or West Coast offense. He can't throw 40 yard+ right now. Use his mobility positively and groom his long ball next off season.

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

How can anyone think a QB who can't come close to hitting on a long throw will be a great QB some day?

 

If Bills lose to the Dolphins on Sunday then I 100% expect Barkley to start vs. the Broncos on 11/24.

I have been as critical of Allen as anybody but that won’t nor should it happen. He’s the guy for the season and should be the guy heading into next season. 
 

I do think we should see what Andy Daltons cost is next year. If we can do 2 years at 10-12 per, I pull the trigger and Allen gets 4-6 games to show he’s the guy in 2020. If we get 6 games of this production next year, I pull the plug and save the season. Dalton finishes the year and is around as a vet presence for the next draft pick. 
 

McBeane has done some things well and somethings poorly. I don’t want to start over AGAIN. But they need to have an immediate back up plan for 2020. They can’t do this again for a 4th year, then be a square one at QB in year 5, and expect to keep their jobs.

 

Their jobs are dependent on either getting very good production out of Allen or having a replacement plan ready and waiting. 

Edited November 11, 2019 by Mango

[Scott7975]

39 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

 

Allen was not 6 of 21 in 31+ in the air, he had 3 last year, think all to Foster.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

You can also look at NFL.com last years stats.  He has 5 completions of 40+

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by Scott7975