Josh Allen haters: a 10 year history lesson on 1st round QBʻs

[reddogblitz]

I Don't LOVE or HATE Josh Allen.

 

I judge a QB by 1 criteria only.  Can we win with him?  Is he a team leader?  Does the team performs a level geater than the sum of it's parts when he is in? Does he perform well when the chips are down? Does he make mistakes to blow games?

 

So far this season so good.  What first round QBs have or have not done in the past is irrelevant IMHO.

[DuckyBoys]

There are 10 starting qbs I'd rather have than Allen right now and many of those guys are geriatrics.  Curious how many you guys would rather have than Allen right now.  Age is not a factor , just count how many qbs you would rather have start rest of the year  I even counted Big Ben even though he is obviously out and Brees who will be back

[DC Tom]

16 hours ago, rayray808 said:

3. Sam Darnold, USC, Jets - MONO BUT SHOWS PROMISE
 

 

Phew.  682 posts.  I'm free to point out that you're an idiot simply for typing out "MONO BUT SHOWS PROMISE" as though it's groundbreaking analysis. 

[Pokebball]

Good God, these bye weeks are brutal!

[LSHMEAB]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean this honestly. When will allowed to want more from Allen?  Am I bad fan because I want our highest drafted qb to have more tds than ints?

Really! And I'm actually coming around on Allen. But wasn't Kyler Murray a "project" QB? He's out there slinging it around left and right. At some point, we need to see that from Allen or he's gonna be mid tier. He's not a bust. He's not terrible. He does a ton of good things that make you root for the guy. But there's either gonna be a significant increase in production or there won't. Again, I love the guy as a competitor, but I want to see more. I suppose I'm also a bad fan.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, MR8 said:

I pulled the first 5 years passing statistics of the 30 Quarterbacks drafted since 2010 and put them in a spreadsheet for a statistical look of all the QBs taken there.

So I am going to post some stats that I thought were important but I want to open it up to everyone, lemme know what stats you want, or if you want the spreadsheet I am more than willing to share it.

 

Why do you think those stats are important?

 

W/L % is really not a QB stat. 

Completion percentage is important, but it matters if a guy is checking it down or taking shots downfield...so YPA are important.

TD and INT are, but why just passing TD and not total TD?  And of course, the ratio to TD to INT may be important.

Passing yards are not correlated to winning, except that there seems to be a "floor" of about 200-220 ypg where if a QB isn't achieving those he can't make it.

 

Anyway, if you wish to keep posting these fine, but it would help if you could change the formatting to single-space between each name.

[Cripple Creek]

18 hours ago, rayray808 said:

Love him or hate him... he is our QB.

Listen, rayray, do you mind if I call you rayray? Anyway, listen rayray, no fan of the Buffalo Bills hates Josh Allen.  Hate is a very strong word and I suggest you put more thought into your next thread title.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

3 hours ago, DC Tom said:

 

Phew.  682 posts.  I'm free to point out that you're an idiot simply for typing out "MONO BUT SHOWS PROMISE" as though it's groundbreaking analysis. 

That one actually made me laugh pretty hard.  It’s like a riddle that I feel like I can solve but it’s just....out......of...reach. 
 

I’ve tried rearranging the letters but can only come up with MONO BUT SHOWS PROMISE and ONO’S BUT SHOWS IROMSE and I don’t know what IROMSE means.  It’s maddening. 

[Augie]

5 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

If all the players were released into a pool and were drafted again, Mahomes would go 1st overall.

 

Justifiably so.

 

Quite true. I wonder if there was EVER a year where the top 5 would still go 1-5 after 5 years of play?  I doubt it....it’s always a crap shoot. 

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, downunderbill said:

 

I don't think many people think he's a finished product at all, far from it, but his career is 16 games old. The pessimists, or realists as you like to call your selves, are the same as the more optimistic members just at different ends of the spectrum.

In the end it's just entertainment, the Bills are 4-1, and some choose to enjoy the game and the Bills. 

 

 

His pessimism, as you like to call it, is realism. And whatever else it is, it's not even close to the end of the spectrum, That would be the relatively few who believe he's very unlikely to ever be a decent QB. That's pessimism.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

If all the players were released into a pool and were drafted again, Mahomes would go 1st overall.

 

Justifiably so.

 

That might be true.  Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady being ancient fogies by now.

[Thurman#1]

 

 

19 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

Interesting...yes. Very good ?. I love those quick, 2 or 3 word judgements that encapsulate all those QBs’ careers. All in an attempt to defend Josh Allen apparently? ? who’da thunk it?

 

 

19 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Pretty accurate though.  It must hurt that it goes against your dislike for Allen.

 

 

Pretty accurate? Hardly. Some are pretty close, but most are personal, short-term and subjective. 

 

Look at his take on Bridgewater. "WINNING GAMES AS BACK UP BUT BREES WILL BE BACK." Yeah, but you could just as correctly say, "Showing some signs he could be a franchise guy down the road. Too early to say, but it's definitely possible. Could he replace Brees in a couple of years or will he refuse to re-sign and look elsewhere?"

 

Or Mariota: "BENCHED TODAY FOR TANNAHANZ." Yes, but short-term and misleading. You could just as reasonably say something like, "He is going to have to show himself as a consistent starter soon, or he may not be perceived as one. What he does the rest of the year will be crucial."

 

Or Goff: "FOLDING LIKE A LAWN CHAIR WEEK BY WEEK." That's supposed to sum up Goff? Pathetic. More like "Has shown he can be excellent for long periods of time. The offense is having problems early this year, though they're still scoring points, but Goff needs to get it together."

 

These are mostly very pessimistic, apparently to make Allen look better in contrast.

 

 

 

 

And Allen won't look better or worse in contrast. You need to look at him himself. That's what will matter. Putting down other QBs, or praising them for that matter, won't affect how Allen is viewed. How he plays is the only thing that will matter. So far he's improving. But needs to improve a lot more. Which is very very reasonable for a QB as young as he is. 

 

Time will tell.

 

And time will tell is not pessimism, though it may feel that way for those looking for ways to inflate perceptions.

 

 

Edited October 15, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

 

 

 

5 hours ago, MR8 said:

I pulled the first 5 years passing statistics of the 30 Quarterbacks drafted since 2010 and put them in a spreadsheet for a statistical look of all the QBs taken there.

So I am going to post some stats that I thought were important but I want to open it up to everyone, lemme know what stats you want, or if you want the spreadsheet I am more than willing to share it.

YEAR 1

I decided to make 6 starts or more their rookie season, it's just under half but enough to get a bit of a look at a QB. If you'd like me to alter the data another way I can... the guys who were weeded out because of insufficient starts: Daniel Jones (4), Tim Tebow (3), Paxton Lynch (2), Johnny Manziel (2), Patrick Mahomes (1), Dwayne Haskins (0), Jake Locker (0)

What I am going to post is the top 10 at each of the following Category with Allen inserted in (If he's not in the top 10), and the Average of all QBs.

 

 

 

This is an interesting idea, but I wonder if you could edit these first few paragraphs so we can better understand what you're doing.

 

Are these the stats for each guy's first six games of their rookie year? The whole rookie year? The first 16 games they played? The first five years? What?

 

Edited October 15, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Hapless Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

That one actually made me laugh pretty hard.  It’s like a riddle that I feel like I can solve but it’s just....out......of...reach. 
 

I’ve tried rearranging the letters but can only come up with MONO BUT SHOWS PROMISE and ONO’S BUT SHOWS IROMSE and I don’t know what IROMSE means.  It’s maddening. 

 

I came up with "NO BUM TO WISH SORE MOPS" which at least uses words, but doesn't make much sense

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I came up with "NO BUM TO WISH SORE MOPS" which at least uses words, but doesn't make much sense

Or does it?? 
 

I’m not going to sleep tonight, that’s for sure. 

[MR8]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

 

This is an interesting idea, but I wonder if you could edit these first few paragraphs so we can better understand what you're doing.

 

Are these the stats for each guy's first six games of their rookie year? The whole rookie year? The first 16 games they played? The first five years? What?

 

Entirety of the rookie season with a minimum of 6 game started is what I was shooting for

[SoCal Deek]

You can flame on the Thread all you’d like but I think it’s interesting to see the long list of ‘recently’ drafted QBs and their stats. I’ve said it for a while now; the league is in for a major change when Brady, Brees, Rodgers and possibly throw in Stafford, Rivers, and Ryan exit. They’ve already seen Luck retire prematurely. After that, it looks like Winter is Coming.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Here's everyone's rookie campaign since 2011, fwiw.

 

[BigPappy]

On 10/14/2019 at 8:07 AM, Sundancer said:

 

Goff yes. 

 

Mahomes threw for 373 yards and 3 TDs yesterday...and threw his first INT--in 20 minutes time of possession. 

 

He's averaging 350 yards/game, with 14 TDs and 1 INT. 

 

Every team wishes their QB was falling apart like that. 

 

 

My point is, they are figuring out his game. Yes he is getting the yards but a lot of it is YAC with short routes right now. Yes there is the occasional long ball but not as often as before. And he is getting banged around A LOT. His one ankle right now is so messed up he can barely play on it. His o-line is not holding together that well. As for Goeff, i see your point, that he isn't elite, but i will add the word.....yet because he is still very quite good. better than 75% of the QB's in the league right now.

Edited October 15, 2019 by BigPappy

[BillsFan17]

Shows me that one, the draft is never an exact science, two that teams will always over value and force QBs to go higher than they should, and lastly you blaming Mahomes for losing games while also trying to trash Watson... ehhhh

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Here's everyone's rookie campaign since 2011, fwiw.

 

 

Thank you very much, Hokie!  This is much more legible and includes much more info in a more readable form, including rush yards and  rush TDs

 

Can you explain the color-coding?

I can tell that it's sorted by QB rating, which is not a stat I love.

 

PS tip to those who don't know, if you click on it, it will enlarge and be readable

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thank you very much, Hokie!  This is much more legible and includes much more info in a more readable form, including rush yards and  rush TDs

 

Can you explain the color-coding?

I can tell that it's sorted by QB rating, which is not a stat I love.

 

PS tip to those who don't know, if you click on it, it will enlarge and be readable

Color coding is just for visual. Darkest green is best in said category, darkest red is worst. Also QB Rating, which it's sorted by, is my version of the stat. Passer rating is the traditional one, and it's a couple columns to the left

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Color coding is just for visual. Darkest green is best in said category, darkest red is worst. Also QB Rating, which it's sorted by, is my version of the stat. Passer rating is the traditional one, and it's a couple columns to the left

 

Oh, Cool Beans!  I thought it was ESPN's "total QB rating" which....let's not get into my opinion of that abhomination.

 

It being the case that it's your QB Rating stat, can you repeat your explanation of what goes into your QB rating?

Thanks much!

 

[auburnbillsbacker]

Pro Bowl Caliber QBs currently playing that were not drafted in the first round.  

-Tom Brady

-Drew Brees (I guess.  He was the first pick of the 2nd round)

-Dak Prescott

-Russel Wilson

If I needed a QB I would take one early.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Oh, Cool Beans!  I thought it was ESPN's "total QB rating" which....let's not get into my opinion of that abhomination.

 

It being the case that it's your QB Rating stat, can you repeat your explanation of what goes into your QB rating?

Thanks much!

It utilizes:

Yards per touch (pass + rush - sack / total attempts including rushes and sacks)

TD% (total TDs / total attempts)

TO% (ints + fumbles lost / total attempts)

 

And then it weights those slightly based on number of total attempts per game to give more credit to QBs that are asked to do more for their team.

[WideNine]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Why do you think those stats are important?

 

W/L % is really not a QB stat. 

Completion percentage is important, but it matters if a guy is checking it down or taking shots downfield...so YPA are important.

TD and INT are, but why just passing TD and not total TD?  And of course, the ratio to TD to INT may be important.

Passing yards are not correlated to winning, except that there seems to be a "floor" of about 200-220 ypg where if a QB isn't achieving those he can't make it.

 

Anyway, if you wish to keep posting these fine, but it would help if you could change the formatting to single-space between each name.

 

That and they are Year 1 metrics.

 

A year Allen was not even supposed to see time behind center, did not practice with the ones in training camp, and was thrust into service as an emergency option vs plan. 

 

A partial year as he was knocked out of the lineup with an injury.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

It utilizes:

Yards per touch (pass + rush - sack / total attempts including rushes and sacks)

TD% (total TDs / total attempts)

TO% (ints + fumbles lost / total attempts)

 

And then it weights those slightly based on number of total attempts per game to give more credit to QBs that are asked to do more for their team.

 

I Like It.  HokieQBR for King Stat

No seriously - sounds like it addresses a lot of things I don't like about passer rating while avoiding the "toss everything but the kitchen sink and subjectivity into it" horror of ESPN Total QBR.  It gives credit to rushing yards and TDs, and takes credit for turnovers.

 

Nice.
 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

28 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

It utilizes:

Yards per touch (pass + rush - sack / total attempts including rushes and sacks)

TD% (total TDs / total attempts)

TO% (ints + fumbles lost / total attempts)

 

And then it weights those slightly based on number of total attempts per game to give more credit to QBs that are asked to do more for their team.

 

OK, FWIW.  Hokie kindly sent me his link, and I sliced it and diced it according to the 4 stats my own study suggested as needed to have a successful long-term NFL QB - this is not "magical franchise world beater QB" whatever that means to different individuals, but a guy your team can win with consistently if they have a defense around him.

 

Those would be completion %, TD/INT ratio, YPA, and a floor of >220 ypg.  It needs several seasons of data to be meaningful as a total, because many eventually good QB such as Drew Brees, Payton Manning, Alex Smith etc did not meet these criteria in their first 16 starts.  This is totally empirical - I started with a list of QB and a pile of data and messed around until I came up with criteria that captured good long term QB on one side and excluded not-so-good guys on another.  It excluded Newton, Eli Manning, and Cutler which was controversial at the time....not so much now.  The criteria themselves are permissive, the key is the guy has to hit all 4.  It's completion percentage >59%, YPA >6.5, TD/INT >1.5, and a floor of about 220 ypg.  All the above looking only at passing, that being a QB's primary job  (but of course, it can be argued that total offensive production matters and should be taken into account, thus what Hokie does)

 

So Allen this season (but not in total) is hitting 3 out of 4.  He's at 62.5% completion, 6.88 ypa, and 224 ypg.  BUT, he is only at 0.71 TD/INT ratio.  Even if his rush TDs are included, he is only at 0.9 TD/INT.  If he can keep up the good work but tame the INTs, maybe we've got something.

 

 

[WideNine]

31 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, FWIW.  Hokie kindly sent me his link, and I sliced it and diced it according to the 4 stats my own study suggested as needed to have a successful long-term NFL QB - this is not "magical franchise world beater QB" whatever that means to different individuals, but a guy your team can win with consistently if they have a defense around him.

 

Those would be completion %, TD/INT ratio, YPA, and a floor of >220 ypg.  It needs several seasons of data to be meaningful as a total, because many eventually good QB such as Drew Brees, Payton Manning, Alex Smith etc did not meet these criteria in their first 16 starts.  This is totally empirical - I started with a list of QB and a pile of data and messed around until I came up with criteria that captured good long term QB on one side and excluded not-so-good guys on another.  It excluded Newton, Eli Manning, and Cutler which was controversial at the time....not so much now.  The criteria themselves are permissive, the key is the guy has to hit all 4.  It's completion percentage >59%, YPA >6.5, TD/INT >1.5, and a floor of about 220 ypg.  All the above looking only at passing, that being a QB's primary job  (but of course, it can be argued that total offensive production matters and should be taken into account, thus what Hokie does)

 

So Allen this season (but not in total) is hitting 3 out of 4.  He's at 62.5% completion, 6.88 ypa, and 224 ypg.  BUT, he is only at 0.71 TD/INT ratio.  Even if his rush TDs are included, he is only at 0.9 TD/INT.  If he can keep up the good work but tame the INTs, maybe we've got something.

 

 

 

Fair enough assessment. I am hoping he tames that hero-ball stubbornness that crops up. 

 

You can tell there are times he is chaffing under the tight reigns that Daboll has on him. But they are necessary restrictions at this stage in his development.

 

Even the underneath throws that dominate his game I feel are necessary by design with all the cover1 and 2 teams have used this year to discourage the deeper routes.

 

I think it is in him to improve in this area, but I expect that Maverick aspect of his game to be a struggle for him till he has a few more years of on the job learning and a few melt downs under his belt.

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, WideNine said:

Fair enough assessment. I am hoping he tames that hero-ball stubbornness that crops up.

You can tell there are times he is chaffing under the tight reigns that Daboll has on him. But they are necessary restrictions at this stage in his development.

Even the underneath throws that dominate his game I feel are necessary by design with all the cover1 and 2 teams have used this year to discourage the deeper routes.

I think it is in him to improve in this area, but I expect that Maverick aspect of his game to be a struggle for him till he has a few more years of on the job learning and a few melt downs under his belt.

 

I sometimes think Daboll deliberately hands him a game plan rich in those underneath routes and dump-offs he didn't take last year and couldn't really be pushed to take last year because we didn't have the WR who could get there and haul 'em in successfully.  Now we do, and I sometimes think Daboll is giving him a game plan rich in those routes because he wants to build Josh's confidence that 1) he can make them consistently 2) he can move the chains and win with them.

 

I do think Josh chafes under that strategy and wants to revert to hero-ball.  I think it's clear Josh would like to be Patrick Mahomes.  Well, he's not.  He can improve his accuracy and he has, but that "I can thread any ball through a needle even when I'm standing on one foot and throwing sidearm" is not gonna be obtainable by Josh.  And that's OK.  It's not clear to me Mahomes will stay Mahomes when his cast of WR and TE inevitably change or when he's under a different coach and offensive system (others may disagree, in fact I know others do disagree *cough* and that's fine, it's the difference between a Raven and a Crow at this point).

Maverick of me, but I think it could potentially be a blessing in disguise that we had that ST miscue and that Allen got knocked out of the game and perhaps couldn't pull off a come-back vs NE.  Sometimes "nothing fails like success", and it may, long term, be a more convincing "teaching moment" for Josh and Daboll than any words could be if we'd won.