Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[19Bills83]

12 hours ago, Real McNasty said:

amazing vid on Allen and how he got here!

 

That was pretty cool. I didn't know about the admiration about attending Fresno State. That worked out real well for them :).

Edited January 25, 2020 by 19Bills83
:)

[Real McClappy]

2 minutes ago, 19Bills83 said:

That was pretty cool. I didn't know about the admiration about attending Fresno State. That worked out real well for them :).

Right? I didn't know about the Wentz connection and why he didn't enter the draft a year earlier. 

[BigBillsFan]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ok, Whoa.  Mechanics and accuracy I get.  I in fact agree with this, since Allen is widely acknowledged to need work on his mechanics and that affects his accuracy at times.

 

But "pedigree in college"?  Since when is that an appropriate metric for QB arm quality?  There's too much impact from the quality of the other players, the quality of the competition, etc.

 

I agree with everything else you wrote but here we diverge. One of the qualities of measuring one's arm was by the competition they played around. "Could they throw that against better compeition?" would be a measure of one's arm talent.

 

Teams only drafted out of the 1st round on prospects who weren't NCAA Div I non-power talent. Their arm talent was comprised not merely of how powerful they could throw it, but how they did against CBs who would later be in the pros.

 

Wentz & Big Ben broke the mold, but the reason why people stay with convention is because the convention works.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/4/2/16913670/josh-allen-wyoming-nfl-draft-college-schedule-strength-opponents

How Josh Allen compares to previous 1st-round QBs from non-power conferences

Year	Player	College rating	College yards/throw
2000	Chad Pennington (Marshall)	157.6	8.6
2002	Patrick Ramsey (Tulane)	126.0	6.8
2002	David Carr (Fresno State)	151.2	8.3
2003	Byron Leftwich (Marshall)	150.9	8.3
2004	J.P. Losman (Tulane)	129.8	6.8
2004	Ben Roethlisberger (Miami, OH)	151.3	8.3
2005	Alex Smith (Utah)	164.4	8.9
2008	Joe Flacco (Delaware)	137.8	7.5
2014	Blake Bortles (UCF)	153.8	8.5
2016	Paxton Lynch (Memphis)	137.0	7.4
2016	Carson Wentz (North Dakota State)	153.9	8.4
2018	Josh Allen (Wyoming)	137.7	7.8

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

I agree with everything else you wrote but here we diverge. One of the qualities of measuring one's arm was by the competition they played around. "Could they throw that against better compeition?" would be a measure of one's arm talent.

 

Teams only drafted out of the 1st round on prospects who weren't NCAA Div I non-power talent. Their arm talent was comprised not merely of how powerful they could throw it, but how they did against CBs who would later be in the pros.

 

Wentz & Big Ben broke the mold, but the reason why people stay with convention is because the convention works.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/4/2/16913670/josh-allen-wyoming-nfl-draft-college-schedule-strength-opponents

How Josh Allen compares to previous 1st-round QBs from non-power conferences

Year	Player	College rating	College yards/throw
2000	Chad Pennington (Marshall)	157.6	8.6
2002	Patrick Ramsey (Tulane)	126.0	6.8
2002	David Carr (Fresno State)	151.2	8.3
2003	Byron Leftwich (Marshall)	150.9	8.3
2004	J.P. Losman (Tulane)	129.8	6.8
2004	Ben Roethlisberger (Miami, OH)	151.3	8.3
2005	Alex Smith (Utah)	164.4	8.9
2008	Joe Flacco (Delaware)	137.8	7.5
2014	Blake Bortles (UCF)	153.8	8.5
2016	Paxton Lynch (Memphis)	137.0	7.4
2016	Carson Wentz (North Dakota State)	153.9	8.4
2018	Josh Allen (Wyoming)	137.7	7.8

 

Good post, thanks.

Interesting list because of the 12 guys, there are 4 besides Allen who are or were at one time regarded as franchise guys. 

Which is kind of the same as the overall success rate of 1st round QB of 15-30%, depending upon how one defines success etc. ?‍♂️

 

I suppose it makes sense - the saying in the old mainframe days used to be "no one ever got fired for buying IBM" (drafting NCAA DI power talent), so for a guy outside that mold to even be considered he must be exceptional enough in some way to make up for it.

[transplantbillsfan]

21 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

so all Allen needs to show his true potential is two elite wideouts and an elite tight end. Seriously that’s where your argument is veering towards because you’re so obstinate against anyone is this ridiculously long thread offering valid Allen criticism.

 

fanboyism at its finest. 

 

First of all... yes, for any QB to show their true potential the weapons around them should be about as good as they can be.

 

Isn't that obvious?

 

Aaron Rodgers, arguably the most talented QB in NFL history, has only won 1 Superbowl.

 

Sooooo... what's held him back?

 

Just look at Mahomes throwing to Cheetah, Kelce and Sammy with other talented guys surrounding him. And to top it off, he sat for a year under a very capable vet and has an offensive genius as a Head Coach.

 

Those crying over the fact we passed over Mahomes are forgivable because of what he's doing in the league, but he also benefits from 2 Elite wideouts and the best Tight End in the NFL for the last few years along with a head coach who just knows how to call plays.

 

As for Allen, I've come to terms that he won't likely ever put up those types of video game numbers, but regardless of how much he gets better at QB, I just doubt it will ever be a Sean McDermott type of game.

 

We don't need 2 Elite WRs.

 

All I want is a single upgrade with a big WR who can go up and ***** those one on one balls and I want Knox to improve this offseason in terms of catching the ball. Do those things along with a positional upgrade on OL and a complementary RB and I think Allen keeps getting better.

Edited January 26, 2020 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

19 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Peyton Manning is an All Time Great, let’s compare his last season with Josh’s! Then we can say he’s better than Peyton AND Brady!

 

Well, so would you trade Allen for Brady straight up today?

 

And what about the fact that Goff and Wentz had a lower on target percentage than Allen?

18 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

The interesting thing about your statement is that it’s actually exactly how the Rams and Chiefs approached things with their young QBs.

 

Now obviously the QB is going to have to be good regardless, but the fact that Mahomes has had an elite WR, RB, TE, and another very good WR is definitely a component of why he’s been so dominant. It’s even more evident with regard to Goff; McVay got that job and immediately brought in Cooks, Woods, Watkins, Kupp, Everett, Reynolds, & Higbee.

 

I would love to see Buffalo make a similar effort with Allen. Make his targets so good that he has literally no excuse for not getting the job done.

[transplantbillsfan]

15 hours ago, Billl said:

What is with the “Josh was the most raw QB in decades” narrative?  Unless “raw” just means that he was ineffective in college, it’s BS.  You know who was raw?  Lamar Jackson was raw.  He just completed an MVP season, and people are still calling him a RB.  Ryan Tannehill was raw.  He was a WR until his Junior year of college.  Pat Mahomes was raw coming out of the Air Raid at Texas Tech. Allen was simply a QB who didn’t put up numbers despite playing in the same system as Carson Wentz.

 

Total and utter crap bro.

 

Go look into the storylines of these guys all the way back to High School.

 

I'll start you on the path: multi sport athlete at a small town rural High School who didn't attend those QB camps like the Manning passing academy as many of these top prospects did and a wildly late bloomer, which seriously and negatively impacted his recruitment to colleges causing him to...

 

well...

 

I challenge you to objectively go back and research his story and come back to me other QBs like Lamar Jackson who was a 4 star recruit as a QB coming out of a High School that played nationally ranked teams and played in one of the 3 best conferences in the NCAA under one of the best coaches or Ryan Tannehill who was a 3 star recruit at QB coming out of High school and then played QB for a couple years (after playing WR) at one of the college football powerhouses.

 

I know I'm a homer, but it's pretty rare to find a story like Allen's.

 

Look it up.

 

He is your Quarterback, afterall...

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, Billl said:

I was looking for his pre draft scouting reports due to all the “he’s so raw” comments around here.  I thought the analysis was interesting because every word of it is true today.  He’s literally been the starter for two years and has a career completion percentage of 56%.

 

Two year starter:  True

 

Obviously 

 

14 hours ago, Billl said:

56% completion:  True

 

Soooo.... since recency matters... is he getting better or worse with that number?

 

14 hours ago, Billl said:

Scattershot passer:  True

 

Not a fact. Completely subjective statement.

 

Define this, please.

 

14 hours ago, Billl said:

Great velocity but needs a better change up:  True

 

Sure

 

14 hours ago, Billl said:

Tends to miss (sometimes badly) on check downs and screens:  True

 

What does this even mean? I watched Carson Wentz and Tom Brady miss badly on wide open check downs and screens this year.

 

Again, very subjective unless you compare him across the board.

 

Plus, is he doing it more or less lately?

 

14 hours ago, Billl said:

Struggles with pressure, lacks proper timing, won’t take the easy yards:  True, true, true

 

1) Most young QBs do

2) Most young QBs do

3) Agreed, but again, is this something he's gotten better or worse at recently?

 

 

 

I swear to God if Allen has a 65% completion percentage next year some vapid poster trying to manipulate a narrative is going to come here and argue something like "well, he has a career completion percentage of less than 60%!" just for the sake of trolling.

[CorkScrewHill]

Article about putting JA performance in context

 

https://buffalowdown.com/2020/01/25/buffalo-bills-providing-context-josh-allens-second-season/

 

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

Article about putting JA performance in context

 

https://buffalowdown.com/2020/01/25/buffalo-bills-providing-context-josh-allens-second-season/

 

Good article.  I would agree with the author that Allen’s improvement needs to be on the mental and not physical side.  Reading defenses is the key for him as far as continued development.

 

As for his rookie season, I believe Beane has publicly stated they made a mistake not bringing in a vet like Anderson after they traded McCarron.  Peterman beat out McCarron; one of the great mysteries of the Beane/ McD regime is how Peterman could look so good in preseason and then so terrible in real games and why they kept faith in him for so long.. 

[K-9]

23 hours ago, Billl said:

What is with the “Josh was the most raw QB in decades” narrative?  Unless “raw” just means that he was ineffective in college, it’s BS.  You know who was raw?  Lamar Jackson was raw.  He just completed an MVP season, and people are still calling him a RB.  Ryan Tannehill was raw.  He was a WR until his Junior year of college.  Pat Mahomes was raw coming out of the Air Raid at Texas Tech. Allen was simply a QB who didn’t put up numbers despite playing in the same system as Carson Wentz.

You need to better acquaint yourself with the development backgrounds of Allen vs. the other QBs you listed. In terms of the development paths taken, Allen is about as raw as it gets. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 hours ago, Billl said:

My guess would be Mahomes.  If so, it’s safe to assume that he overcame them all pretty much immediately (other than his tendency to sail the deep ball on occasion).

 

For values of "immediately" equal to "after a year"

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

Good article.  I would agree with the author that Allen’s improvement needs to be on the mental and not physical side.  Reading defenses is the key for him as far as continued development.

 

I didn't read that article as saying that.  Maybe I read it with a reflection of my own bias perhaps which is "needs to improve both"?  There's some throwing mechanics work to do.

 

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

As for his rookie season, I believe Beane has publicly stated they made a mistake not bringing in a vet like Anderson after they traded McCarron.  Peterman beat out McCarron; one of the great mysteries of the Beane/ McD regime is how Peterman could look so good in preseason and then so terrible in real games and why they kept faith in him for so long.. 

 

That is indeed, one of the great mysteries of life.  All I can figure is that Peterman must have Some Stuff on the whiteboard and the film room - he's still in the league!  Gruden IR'd him out in Oakland!  But when it ratchets up a notch for a game, he can't answer.

 

Even if Peterman had worked out, you still have a raw, inexperienced 2nd yr QB trying to show a raw rookie how to prepare in the NFL, which is "blind leading blind", no bueno.

 

That whole Peterman thing and the OL/WR situation in 2018 cast the shadow of a huge "???" over some aspects of Beane and McDermott for me.  I felt better after 2019, but it's not going to go away until I see us have some more draft and FA choices pan out.

[thebandit27]

52 minutes ago, K-9 said:

You need to better acquaint yourself with the development backgrounds of Allen vs. the other QBs you listed. In terms of the development paths taken, Allen is about as raw as it gets. 

Unbelievable, isn’t it? The same poster that tells other people that they don’t know what “raw” means then uses the term to describe a player offered scholarships by 15 schools (including Clemson and Auburn), became a 3-year college starter, played under a former NFL head coach in Bobby Petrino, and transitioned to an NFL offense that Greg Roman shaped to mirror everything that Jackson did in college.

 

Safe to say that I will be putting less stock into certain content following that gem.

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

That is indeed, one of the great mysteries of life.  All I can figure is that Peterman must have Some Stuff on the whiteboard and the film room - he's still in the league!  Gruden IR'd him out in Oakland!  But when it ratchets up a notch for a game, he can't answer.

 

Even if Peterman had worked out, you still have a raw, inexperienced 2nd yr QB trying to show a raw rookie how to prepare in the NFL, which is "blind leading blind", no bueno.

 

That whole Peterman thing and the OL/WR situation in 2018 cast the shadow of a huge "???" over some aspects of Beane and McDermott for me.  I felt better after 2019, but it's not going to go away until I see us have some more draft and FA choices pan out.

 

It was an absolute debacle.  The worst I think I've ever seen the most important position in sports managed.

 

Some GMs would have "stayed the course," just to keep from having to admit wrongdoing and having egg on his face.

 

I gave credit to Beane coming out and admitting he screwed the pooch (and I took a lot of heat for giving him credit by our resident NFL genius).  He took his lumps and he did a much better job moving forward.

 

Overall, I like Beane a lot.  But, like you, I'm still stung by that QB mess and still want him to show me the baby this offseason.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/25/2020 at 10:41 AM, Real McNasty said:

Right? I didn't know about the Wentz connection and why he didn't enter the draft a year earlier. 

 

Josh talked about it some in a pre-draft interview with Mayock (at 1:25 or so, I can't get it to link at the correct time):

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

On 1/25/2020 at 9:55 AM, Billl said:

What is with the “Josh was the most raw QB in decades” narrative?  Unless “raw” just means that he was ineffective in college, it’s BS.  You know who was raw?  Lamar Jackson was raw.  He just completed an MVP season, and people are still calling him a RB.  Ryan Tannehill was raw.  He was a WR until his Junior year of college.  Pat Mahomes was raw coming out of the Air Raid at Texas Tech. Allen was simply a QB who didn’t put up numbers despite playing in the same system as Carson Wentz.

 

Lamar Jackson was not considered raw he just wasn't able to make certain types of throws.  There's a BIG difference. 

 

Jackson ran a spread offense where he was the guy.  I'm sure that Jackson was attending multiple elite QB camps throughout high school.  He was exposed at a young age to top notch QB coaching.

 

The nature of the offense that Mahomes ran meant he was anything but raw coming out of college.

 

Allen was raw because he didn't attend those elite QB camps and he didn't benefit from top notch QB coaching until he was preparing to be drafted.  I bet that between the age of 12 - 22 Allen threw a lot fewer passes, in any capacity (games, drills, practice, 7 on 7's, camps) then Jackson or Mahomes did.  Allen is a true rarity among young QB's today - he's still learning how to play the position. 

 

Collin Cowherd on his show made a great point with Trent Dilfer about the current crop of young QB's receiving all sorts of elite training and throwing the ball tens of thousands of times by the time they get out of college.  But Allen is an exception to this.  Under the circumstances hes actually making great progress.

 

 

[Scott7975]

On 1/23/2020 at 10:18 AM, jrober38 said:

 

That's how long the plays were.

 

None of those passes went 40 yards or more in the air.

 

I did math. I literally put the numbers into a calculator and that's what came out. 

 

Well I just looked up the very first play.  Allen threw the ball from the Bills 38 yardline.  Pass was caught at the Pats 19/20 yardline.  Pits game Josh threw from the Bills 22.  It was caught at the Steelers 34.  So yeah, he did have at least 2 balls there that traveled at least 40 yards in the air.  What difference does it even make?  Are you trying to say he can't do it?

 

[Scott7975]

On 1/23/2020 at 11:10 AM, BigBillsFan said:

BTW the difference between jrober's stats and everyone else is because jrober is counting actual yards from the LOS, not from where threw it to a reception. In air yards isn't yards given to a QB, or rephrase it a QB who went back 40 yards thew it 10 yards past the LOS isn't a 50 yard pass.

 

Then perhaps he shouldn't say that "Josh has not thrown one pass that traveled 40 yards in the air."
 

[Scott7975]

On 1/23/2020 at 11:17 AM, jrober38 said:

 

You're living in a fantasy land.

 

You're literally just saying things you want to be true.

 

Straight from NextGen's Glossary:

 

Average Completed Air Yards (CAY) and Average Intended Air Yards (IAY)

Air Yards is the vertical yards on a pass attempt at the moment the ball is caught in relation to the line of scrimmage. CAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on completions, and IAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on all attempts. This metric shows how far the ball is being thrown ‘downfield’. Air Yards is recorded as a negative value when the pass is behind the Line of Scrimmage. Additionally Air Yards is calculated into the back of the end zone to better evaluate the true depth of the pass.

Give it up. Please stop making up blatant lies. 

 

 

 

 

and this is the other....

 

Longest Completed Air Distance (LCAD)

Air Distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from the point of release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Unlike Air Yards, Air Distance measures the actual distance the passer throws the ball.

[Big Buff]

Pass accuracy was a problem when we were looking to draft him...... still cant throw 20 yards down field. Who cares if he can throw 80..... Bills fan to Bills fans. Time to move on.

Edited February 6, 2020 by Big Buff

[Meatloaf63]

19 minutes ago, Big Buff said:

Pass accuracy was a problem when we were looking to draft him...... still cant throw 20 yards down field. Who cares if he can throw 80..... Bills fan to Bills fans. Time to move on.

Ok what was your last name you posted under?

[BigBillsFan]

On 1/26/2020 at 8:03 PM, CincyBillsFan said:

Allen was raw because he didn't attend those elite QB camps and he didn't benefit from top notch QB coaching until he was preparing to be drafted.  I bet that between the age of 12 - 22 Allen threw a lot fewer passes, in any capacity (games, drills, practice, 7 on 7's, camps) then Jackson or Mahomes did.  Allen is a true rarity among young QB's today - he's still learning how to play the position.

 

I agree with you but I think this is more of a problem. You can't coach a 23 yr old to be magically better at things he should know at 18 or 20. They can improve but to imagine it sticking with an important moment is next to near impossible without years of practice and less pressure to learn (or in our case a running game).

 

I should know because I tried to play professional sports when I was young and I realized how much I needed to grasp mentally and I realized I lacked the time to refine myself. Some of the things guys could do who were at camps since they were young I couldn't grasp doing myself. My mind couldn't slow down enough.

 

Raw talent is great but unharnessed its messy. It's like Yoda saying Luke was too old to start training to be a Jedi, not because of talent, but lack of refinement that takes a long time which is dangerous. Obviously I'm joking but my point is you can't issues with time except to let things be fixed through time. Aaron Rodgers on the bench was the best thing that could have happened to him and he was far more polished.

 

What is most startling is how many times QBs thought they were fixable and coachable until the rubber met the road under pressure: Leftwich and Tebow for example. Most times if a QB is really far off they usually don't make it with very few exceptions. That's why I pray we become a running team, get 1 more WR or great TE and focus on defense and rushing.

 

Allen will have a chance and if do what we saw in the 1st half of the Texans is possible we're in for a treat.

[CincyBillsFan]

56 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

I agree with you but I think this is more of a problem. You can't coach a 23 yr old to be magically better at things he should know at 18 or 20. They can improve but to imagine it sticking with an important moment is next to near impossible without years of practice and less pressure to learn (or in our case a running game).

 

I should know because I tried to play professional sports when I was young and I realized how much I needed to grasp mentally and I realized I lacked the time to refine myself. Some of the things guys could do who were at camps since they were young I couldn't grasp doing myself. My mind couldn't slow down enough.

 

Raw talent is great but unharnessed its messy. It's like Yoda saying Luke was too old to start training to be a Jedi, not because of talent, but lack of refinement that takes a long time which is dangerous. Obviously I'm joking but my point is you can't issues with time except to let things be fixed through time. Aaron Rodgers on the bench was the best thing that could have happened to him and he was far more polished.

 

What is most startling is how many times QBs thought they were fixable and coachable until the rubber met the road under pressure: Leftwich and Tebow for example. Most times if a QB is really far off they usually don't make it with very few exceptions. That's why I pray we become a running team, get 1 more WR or great TE and focus on defense and rushing.

 

Allen will have a chance and if do what we saw in the 1st half of the Texans is possible we're in for a treat.

 

I disagree completely with this.  It used to be the norm in the NFL for QB's not to reach their full capabilities until their late 20's. In fact the vast majority of QB's had their greatest improvement AFTER they turned 23 as a consequence of their receiving proper coaching combined with increased reps & game experience. 

 

What has changed in the last decade is that the advance training available to some QB's in their youth enables them to hit the ground running in the NFL.  Good for them. But this in no way precludes those QB's who for whatever reason didn't benefit from advanced training in their early years from learning how to play QB at an elite level.  Allen is a THROWBACK an old school young QB who will follow a conventional path that was common in the 1970's & 1980's.

 

Just this year you saw Joe Burrow do exactly this going from being an average QB at 22 to being a QB that had the single greatest season in the history of college football at 23. 

 

If you look at Allen's improvement vector from his start as an unrecruited HS QB who spent a year in Jr College to a stint at Wyoming then a top 10 pick of the Bills, you can see that he's more then able to get better as he's exposed to better coaching & experiences.  This is a guy who as a rookie in the NFL was thrown to the wolves on a horrendous offense yet has by EVERY measure significantly improved his QB skills from those first few games to now.  The trajectory in his improvement from 18 to 23 had been robustly UP.  And there is no rational reason to believe that it doesn't continue for the next few years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by CincyBillsFan

[BigBillsFan]

11 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I disagree completely with this....

 

If you look at Allen's improvement vector from his start as an unrecruited HS QB who spent a year in Jr College to a stint at Wyoming then a top 10 pick of the Bills, you can see that he's more then able to get better as he's exposed to better coaching & experiences.  This is a guy who as a rookie in the NFL was thrown to the wolves on a horrendous offense yet has by EVERY measure significantly improved his QB skills from those first few games to now.  The trajectory in his improvement from 18 to 23 had been robustly UP.  And there is no rational reason to believe that it doesn't continue for the next few years.

 

 

You really can't compare the guy who had the best year in college sports history who was recruited to OSU and Allen. Improvement sure, but it's not close.

Why? Because it's the greatest turn-around ever, and never at that level.

 

It's one thing for the guy to click (Burrow), another for a guy to grow into the position (Allen). Burrow played a small bit in 2016 and his stats were fantastic. Still a tiny sample size.

 

It's comparing apples to oranges and I do agree with you Allen being thrown to wolves and losing his rookie year to stupidity and bad planning.

 

The mental differences between all of those reps for success cannot be done quickly. Name me a QB with as bad as a path as Allen who had a very successful career. I mean I'm open to the idea, I just think he needs 2 more years from today.

 

Put it another way, if you could draft Burrow or Allen in 2020 who do you think GMs would pick 1st and why? It's Burrow all day long because he has a history of playing the position with better mechanics longer, even if he didn't shine until his senior year but when he did he lit the place up.

 

Yes Allen's trajectory is up, but going from the bottom to the bottom 1/3rd isn't a vast difference just yet. Honestly I'll be happy if he's 15th in the league with his ability to run and improvise.

[CincyBillsFan]

12 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

You really can't compare the guy who had the best year in college sports history who was recruited to OSU and Allen. Improvement sure, but it's not close.

Why? Because it's the greatest turn-around ever, and never at that level.

 

It's one thing for the guy to click (Burrow), another for a guy to grow into the position (Allen). Burrow played a small bit in 2016 and his stats were fantastic. Still a tiny sample size.

 

It's comparing apples to oranges and I do agree with you Allen being thrown to wolves and losing his rookie year to stupidity and bad planning.

 

The mental differences between all of those reps for success cannot be done quickly. Name me a QB with as bad as a path as Allen who had a very successful career. I mean I'm open to the idea, I just think he needs 2 more years from today.

 

Put it another way, if you could draft Burrow or Allen in 2020 who do you think GMs would pick 1st and why? It's Burrow all day long because he has a history of playing the position with better mechanics longer, even if he didn't shine until his senior year but when he did he lit the place up.

 

Yes Allen's trajectory is up, but going from the bottom to the bottom 1/3rd isn't a vast difference just yet. Honestly I'll be happy if he's 15th in the league with his ability to run and improvise.

 

I'm an Ohio State fan and Burrow only played in mop up time in 2016.  Those stats are irrelevant.  The bottom line is that he couldn't win the OSU job, was average his first year at LSU and then blossomed into one of the best QB prospects to come out of college in the last 20 years.  And he did this AFTER the age of 21.

 

And for the record Allen's path to being an NFL QB was NOT "bad".  He went from unrecruited HS player to a starter at Wyoming. He then went from Wyoming to being a top 10 pick in the NFL draft.  He then became a starting NFL QB in week 2 as a rookie.  He then improved his game significantly since becoming a starting NFL QB.  THERE'S NOTHING BAD ABOUT THIS!

 

My point was that Allen didn't enjoy the advantages of a lot of young QB's with respect to high level coaching during his early years of football.  And as long as you have the mental & physical tools - which Allen has in abundance - all you need to overcome this is a couple of years of high level coaching & experiences.  He's getting that and he's improving by leaps & bounds. 

 

My point is also that he's following a more traditional path for QB development.  This is a path that was the norm for the majority of young NFL QB's from the 1960's - 1990's. 

 

As for your hypothetical question, if I didn't know what I know now - that Allen has demonstrated that he can be an NFL QB - and I was asked to choose between Allen coming out of college in 2018 and Burrow today I would pick Burrow.  Who wouldn't. 

 

The real question is which of these 2 QB's do you think is more likely to be a top 5 NFL QB 5 years from now?  My answer would be Allen because he's already PROVEN he can play at an NFL level. Burrow still has to prove this.  And for the record I think Burrow is a fantastic QB prospect and will thrive in the NFL.

 

Bottom line is your pessimism about Allen is unwarranted.  Your declaration that Allen can't get better is flat out wrong and has been disproved by Allen's performance to date. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

28 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I'm an Ohio State fan and Burrow only played in mop up time in 2016.  Those stats are irrelevant.  The bottom line is that he couldn't win the OSU job, was average his first year at LSU and then blossomed into one of the best QB prospects to come out of college in the last 20 years.  And he did this AFTER the age of 21....

 

The real question is which of these 2 QB's do you think is more likely to be a top 5 NFL QB 5 years from now?  My answer would be Allen because he's already PROVEN he can play at an NFL level. Burrow still has to prove this.  And for the record I think Burrow is a fantastic QB prospect and will thrive in the NFL.

 

Bottom line is your pessimism about Allen is unwarranted.  Your declaration that Allen can't get better is flat out wrong and has been disproved by Allen's performance to date.

 

 

This is the fallacy in logic called the post hoc fallacy. Joe Burrow has the single greatest season in college history to a guy who was ranked in the bottom 1/3rd of QBs and in his 1st season the flat out worst.

 

Allen will improve, that I have no doubt, but it won’t be stratospheric like Burrow and how do I know? Because it’s never happened before. You can’t take an exception and make it close to a rule.

 

Has Allen improved? Sure but the fact he lacks that coaching is the exact reason why it’s so much harder now. Neuroelasticity is not the same in a guy in his 20’s as a guy as a teenager. It’s the reason why no great chess masters spring out of the blue in their mid-20’s.

 

Burrow never struggled with mechanics, he struggled with mentally analyzing the field and timing. That’s stratospherically different than someone with mechanical issues. Brees is the same as Burrow for that big leap, but that wasn’t mechanical, it was analyzing.

 

So yes I expect improvement, but in the 3-15% range, not in the 100% range like Burrow.

 

To answer your question who is more likely in 5 years to be the great pro? Joe Burrow, his game has less variables to answer. Allen has multiple variables which are unproven. Burrow’s is simple: can you throw with the speed of the pros? Allen’s is the same + can you fix your mechanics + the ability to read the field.

[Bsblguy]

Why do you think burrow has no issues? I love the kid, but he was throwing to a group of receivers in 2019 that is likely more talented than the 2019 Bills  receivers, and likely better than the receivers he will get in Cinci, all against college defenses... I like joe, I think he will be good, I watched him go off live, but he was not driving the ball into tight windows often. He was often hitting receivers that were open by 5-10 yards after being afforded 6 seconds of time by his o-line. 
 

I think he will be solid, maybe great, but it is not like the NFL will be easy for him just because one of his seasons, with an absolutely loaded team around him, looked easy.

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, Bsblguy said:

Why do you think burrow has no issues? I love the kid, but he was throwing to a group of receivers in 2019 that is likely more talented than the 2019 Bills  receivers, and likely better than the receivers he will get in Cinci, all against college defenses... I like joe, I think he will be good, I watched him go off live, but he was not driving the ball into tight windows often. He was often hitting receivers that were open by 5-10 yards after being afforded 6 seconds of time by his o-line. 
 

I think he will be solid, maybe great, but it is not like the NFL will be easy for him just because one of his seasons, with an absolutely loaded team around him, looked easy.

Ah, the Mayfield Effect at work? Could be...haven’t had a chance to grind the video on Burrow yet. Just haven’t made QB the priority the last 2 offseasons.

[Billl]

4 hours ago, Bsblguy said:

Why do you think burrow has no issues? I love the kid, but he was throwing to a group of receivers in 2019 that is likely more talented than the 2019 Bills  receivers, and likely better than the receivers he will get in Cinci, all against college defenses... I like joe, I think he will be good, I watched him go off live, but he was not driving the ball into tight windows often. He was often hitting receivers that were open by 5-10 yards after being afforded 6 seconds of time by his o-line. 
 

I think he will be solid, maybe great, but it is not like the NFL will be easy for him just because one of his seasons, with an absolutely loaded team around him, looked easy.

Let's just say that Beane were to shop Allen for picks.  What do you think he would receive in return?

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Bsblguy said:

Why do you think burrow has no issues? I love the kid, but he was throwing to a group of receivers in 2019 that is likely more talented than the 2019 Bills  receivers, and likely better than the receivers he will get in Cinci, all against college defenses... I like joe, I think he will be good, I watched him go off live, but he was not driving the ball into tight windows often. He was often hitting receivers that were open by 5-10 yards after being afforded 6 seconds of time by his o-line. 
 

I think he will be solid, maybe great, but it is not like the NFL will be easy for him just because one of his seasons, with an absolutely loaded team around him, looked easy.

 

Burrow to me has a high floor. I think he could come in and play as well as the guy he is replacing - Dalton - immediately. Where his ceiling is would be a fair question though in my book. Think it is probably a top 10 QB but not a top 5 guy. 

[K-9]

4 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

This is the fallacy in logic called the post hoc fallacy. Joe Burrow has the single greatest season in college history to a guy who was ranked in the bottom 1/3rd of QBs and in his 1st season the flat out worst.

 

Allen will improve, that I have no doubt, but it won’t be stratospheric like Burrow and how do I know? Because it’s never happened before. You can’t take an exception and make it close to a rule.

 

Has Allen improved? Sure but the fact he lacks that coaching is the exact reason why it’s so much harder now. Neuroelasticity is not the same in a guy in his 20’s as a guy as a teenager. It’s the reason why no great chess masters spring out of the blue in their mid-20’s.

 

Burrow never struggled with mechanics, he struggled with mentally analyzing the field and timing. That’s stratospherically different than someone with mechanical issues. Brees is the same as Burrow for that big leap, but that wasn’t mechanical, it was analyzing.

 

So yes I expect improvement, but in the 3-15% range, not in the 100% range like Burrow.

 

To answer your question who is more likely in 5 years to be the great pro? Joe Burrow, his game has less variables to answer. Allen has multiple variables which are unproven. Burrow’s is simple: can you throw with the speed of the pros? Allen’s is the same + can you fix your mechanics + the ability to read the field.

Neuroelasticity.    Well done. 

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Ah, the Mayfield Effect at work? Could be...haven’t had a chance to grind the video on Burrow yet. Just haven’t made QB the priority the last 2 offseasons.

You will be amazed by his video. 

 

You will be even more amazed at the total lack of diversity in the coverage schemes his offense played against. 

[BigBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Let's just say that Beane were to shop Allen for picks.  What do you think he would receive in return?

 

Currently a 3rd. That's my guess.

[oldmanfan]

If we take coaching as comparable to teaching, it’s interesting that someone above has claimed you can’t learn much between ages 18 and the early/mid 20’s.  Guess we might as well close all the colleges, grad schools, medical schools, etc., etc.

 

Allen progressed this past year.  There is no neuroelastic reason to assume he won’t continue to learn and progress.  We’ll see how he does.

 

And I teach both neuroanatomy and physiology by the way.

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, Billl said:

Let's just say that Beane were to shop Allen for picks.  What do you think he would receive in return?

 

At minimum it would be two #1's. & two #2's.

[LSHMEAB]

23 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

At minimum it would be two #1's. & two #2's.

Really????? I don't think you actually believe that. Allen has grown and as Bills fans we just have to hope that continues, but there's not a GM in the league who would give up 2 1's and 2 2's. Zero chance in the world. 

 

I think he'd probably fetch a second. POSSIBLY a first.

Edited February 8, 2020 by LSHMEAB

[JoPoy88]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

At minimum it would be two #1's. & two #2's.

not a chance in heck that would happen but I definitely think there are plenty of coaches around the league that have seen Allen and are in love with his skillset. And most of those coaches certainly think they could hammer out the few weaknesses in his game. So two second rounders or thereabouts would be my guess.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

Really????? I don't think you actually believe that. Allen has grown and as Bills fans we just have to hope that continues, but there's not a GM in the league who would give up 2 1's and 2 2's. Zero chance in the world. 

 

I think he'd probably fetch a second.

 

So you're saying someone could get Allen for the same price that Miami paid to get Rosen?  Really!

 

Allen was the 7th guy taken in the 2018 draft.  He has clearly shown that he is NOT a bust and has flashed serious upside potential.  Allen is a safer bet then Burrow and I think Burrow is fantastic.  But Allen has already at times performed at an elite level in the NFL.

 

There are credible rumors swirling around that Miami might part with THREE 1st round picks to land Burrow.  If Bean offered Allen to Miami for TWO 1st round picks the Dolphins would do it in a heartbeat. 

 

 

 

 

Just now, JoPoy88 said:

not a chance in heck that would happen but I definitely think there are plenty of coaches around the league that have seen Allen and are in love with his skillset. And most of those coaches certainly think they could hammer out the few weaknesses in his game. So two second rounders or thereabouts would be my guess.

 

What part don't you think would happen?  Bean offering to trade Allen or someone giving up 2 first round and 2 second round picks?  I think there is a zero chance Bean offers Allen up for trade.  But if he did I would be shocked if he didn't get a couple of 1st round picks for Allen. 

 

Allen is a top 10 pick who is on the cusp of being a top flight QB.  If Rosen was worth a 2nd Allen is worth two 1st round picks.

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

So you're saying someone could get Allen for the same price that Miami paid to get Rosen?  Really!

 

Allen was the 7th guy taken in the 2018 draft.  He has clearly shown that he is NOT a bust and has flashed serious upside potential.  Allen is a safer bet then Burrow and I think Burrow is fantastic.  But Allen has already at times performed at an elite level in the NFL.

 

There are credible rumors swirling around that Miami might part with THREE 1st round picks to land Burrow.  If Bean offered Allen to Miami for TWO 1st round picks the Dolphins would do it in a heartbeat. 

 

 

Listen. We all like Allen and hope it works out. But he remains one of the lowest rated passers in the league 2 years in. I don't think he's overperformed his expectations. I don't think he's PROVEN that he can overcome the deficiencies that plagued him in college. I think his stock would be slightly down. I mean, maybe a late first. Definitely not 2 1's and 2 2's. That's just hyperbolic for no reason.

[Trogdor]

6 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Ah, the Mayfield Effect at work? Could be...haven’t had a chance to grind the video on Burrow yet. Just haven’t made QB the priority the last 2 offseasons.

Mayfield definitely had an off year, but he looked pretty good against the Bills. I'm not sure how much of his struggles were him and how much was Kitchens.