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KzooMike

Josh Allen: Film Review From a Cynical Man

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20 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

I don't think I'm alone in feeling the way I do. I think many of you feel the same way. It's hard to trust this team. It's hard to trust the QB position. 20 years of psychological warfare, unmet expectations, disappointment. This is one of the most emotionally invested fan bases in the NFL. We have been burned so repetitively we have become split between two groups of people. Ones that can let go of the past be optimistic and move forward, then another group that is just as passionate and loyal but defends themselves emotionally by lowering expectations. I'm part of the latter but always fighting myself to push closer towards the former.

 

I saw things in Allen's statistical profile last year that concerned me a great deal. How often he was running. Accuracy issues. Topics discussed many times on this forum as indicators to be cautious. I spent a lot time watching film on Josh this weekend. From the eyes of an emotionally defeated, lowered expectation, pessimist, this is what I saw. 

 

A kid in the shape of a giant outrunning defenders not because he couldn't read progressions or step up in the pocket, but because he was either forced to roll out or more often because the defensive line completely over pursued. He took advantage of mistakes defenses made and put DC's on notice this year. If you want to play pin the ears back and undisciplined in your pass rush he will make you pay.

 

I saw this man child hit the deep middle 20 yard throw like no QB we have had since Bledsoe (who for all his shortcomings delivered that as well as anybody). I saw him often not stepping up in the pocket and delivering the ball awkwardly, but it was not because he was afraid it was because the DL was under his chin. Shockingly, he still delivered ropes all over the field from this position. 

 

I saw a player that can make every conceivable throw a QB can make in this league and many the majority of QB's could not. A player that when in cadence and rhythm was decisive and accurate. Somebody fully capable of turning absolutely nothing into not only positive yardage but sometimes a lot more. Oh by the way,  a natural leader that inspired his teammates.

 

You would have to have beaten Bills syndrome to the fullest level to not see the same things. Allen is a special player. He carried this offense as rookie void of any talent around him on his back last year. This year he has some weapons. So why not Buffalo, lets do this one more time. I'm on board and will put the past behind me. I think we make the playoffs this season. Then I think we challenge for what we really want in the years to come.  

 

 

Very good.  Thank you.

 

Some of the stats that I saw have he throwing very rarely over 20 + yards over the middle: what or how many yoems did you see this?

 

 

Thanks.

 

 

 

 

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If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

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1 minute ago, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

that didn't take long lol

 

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37 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

I don't think I'm alone in feeling the way I do. I think many of you feel the same way. It's hard to trust this team. It's hard to trust the QB position. 20 years of psychological warfare, unmet expectations, disappointment. This is one of the most emotionally invested fan bases in the NFL. We have been burned so repetitively we have become split between two groups of people. Ones that can let go of the past be optimistic and move forward, then another group that is just as passionate and loyal but defends themselves emotionally by lowering expectations. I'm part of the latter but always fighting myself to push closer towards the former.

 

I saw things in Allen's statistical profile last year that concerned me a great deal. How often he was running. Accuracy issues. Topics discussed many times on this forum as indicators to be cautious. I spent a lot time watching film on Josh this weekend. From the eyes of an emotionally defeated, lowered expectation, pessimist, this is what I saw. 

 

A kid in the shape of a giant outrunning defenders not because he couldn't read progressions or step up in the pocket, but because he was either forced to roll out or more often because the defensive line completely over pursued. He took advantage of mistakes defenses made and put DC's on notice this year. If you want to play pin the ears back and undisciplined in your pass rush he will make you pay.

 

I saw this man child hit the deep middle 20 yard throw like no QB we have had since Bledsoe (who for all his shortcomings delivered that as well as anybody). I saw him often not stepping up in the pocket and delivering the ball awkwardly, but it was not because he was afraid it was because the DL was under his chin. Shockingly, he still delivered ropes all over the field from this position. 

 

I saw a player that can make every conceivable throw a QB can make in this league and many the majority of QB's could not. A player that when in cadence and rhythm was decisive and accurate. Somebody fully capable of turning absolutely nothing into not only positive yardage but sometimes a lot more. Oh by the way,  a natural leader that inspired his teammates.

 

You would have to have beaten Bills syndrome to the fullest level to not see the same things. Allen is a special player. He carried this offense as rookie void of any talent around him on his back last year. This year he has some weapons. So why not Buffalo, lets do this one more time. I'm on board and will put the past behind me. I think we make the playoffs this season. Then I think we challenge for what we really want in the years to come.  

Talk to me in December! Maybe yes Maybe no!

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45 minutes ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

that didn't take long lol

 

SoTier sounds like a Jets fan.

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I am cautiously optimistic. Hard not to love the guy, I just hope he can become the real deal. 

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That would have been an almost expected post from a Josh fan. But from a Josh critic it is an excellent one. I find it hard for anyone to watch the games from last year and not see him swarmed immediately a huge portion of the time, and still trying to make a play. That is the reason for his completion percentage more than inaccuracy.

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1 hour ago, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

Work ethic! This kid wants to win. You can see it in his demeanor.  People can say they are all about winning but Josh shows it. Is he perfect? No. Does he work on what his is deficient in. Hell yes he does. Isn't that what Buffalo is all about.  He gets what Buffalo is all about more than some posters around here. I for one am happy he is the face of this franchise, he will represent it with pride. I'm good with that.  Now go out there and get me a SuperBowl before I die will ya?

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I have always been a kool-aide drinker, but it feels different now...like the bills are actuality  heading the right direction

and

Josh Allen just needs to make big plays to win games, it's not about the stats just winning!!!!

 

Go Bills!

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Great post.  I was fortunate enough to be in Buffalo for his first start against the Chargers (from Hamburg  but live in Nashville now)  and again at Miami in December. The Chargers game he looked like a rookie but you could see some flashes. By the Miami game, he looked like a leader of men and pretty much put the team on his back to win and came up one dropped pass short. The Miami fans sitting around me were all “why didn’t we get this guy”.....What I like about him besides all his off the chart physical ability is his apparent strong workout thick and brains. If things go right we’ve got something special here!

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I don't think I'm alone in feeling the way I do. I think many of you feel the same way. It's hard to trust this team. It's hard to trust the QB position. 20 years of psychological warfare, unmet expectations, disappointment. This is one of the most emotionally invested fan bases in the NFL. We have been burned so repetitively we have become split between two groups of people. Ones that can let go of the past be optimistic and move forward, then another group that is just as passionate and loyal but defends themselves emotionally by lowering expectations. I'm part of the latter but always fighting myself to push closer towards the former.

 

I saw things in Allen's statistical profile last year that concerned me a great deal. How often he was running. Accuracy issues. Topics discussed many times on this forum as indicators to be cautious. I spent a lot time watching film on Josh this weekend. From the eyes of an emotionally defeated, lowered expectation, pessimist, this is what I saw. 

 

A kid in the shape of a giant outrunning defenders not because he couldn't read progressions or step up in the pocket, but because he was either forced to roll out or more often because the defensive line completely over pursued. He took advantage of mistakes defenses made and put DC's on notice this year. If you want to play pin the ears back and undisciplined in your pass rush he will make you pay.

 

I saw this man child hit the deep middle 20 yard throw like no QB we have had since Bledsoe (who for all his shortcomings delivered that as well as anybody). I saw him often not stepping up in the pocket and delivering the ball awkwardly, but it was not because he was afraid it was because the DL was under his chin. Shockingly, he still delivered ropes all over the field from this position. 

 

I saw a player that can make every conceivable throw a QB can make in this league and many the majority of QB's could not. A player that when in cadence and rhythm was decisive and accurate. Somebody fully capable of turning absolutely nothing into not only positive yardage but sometimes a lot more. Oh by the way,  a natural leader that inspired his teammates.

 

You would have to have beaten Bills syndrome to the fullest level to not see the same things. Allen is a special player. He carried this offense as rookie void of any talent around him on his back last year. This year he has some weapons. So why not Buffalo, lets do this one more time. I'm on board and will put the past behind me. I think we make the playoffs this season. Then I think we challenge for what we really want in the years to come.  

 

 

So, to sum up ... you're a Bills fan who is willing to drink Kool-Aid? Don't know if I've ever seen one of those here before.

 

Me, I'm still legitimately hopeful, but as always, from Missouri.

Edited by Thurman#1
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Posted (edited)

Well I was compiling some stats after watching some Dallas games with Dak Prescott and compared that to Josh Allen and determined that from behind the LOS to 10 yards out that composed of 73% of Dak Prescott pass attempts compared to 46% to Josh Allen's. On those passes Dak hit 80% of those passes compared to 75% for Josh Allen. If the ratios and percentages stayed the same if Josh rose his pass attempts to 73% from behind the LOS to 10 yards out from 46% that would result in 27 more completions for the  season and would raise his overall completion percentage for the season from 52% to 61%

Edited by Protocal69
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Posted (edited)

 

8 minutes ago, Protocal69 said:

Well I was compiling some stats after watching some Dallas games with Dak Prescott and compared that to Josh Allen and determined that from behind the LOS to 10 yards out that composed of 73% of Dak Prescott pass attempts compared to 46% to Josh Allen's. On those passes Dak hit 80% of those passes compared to 75% for Josh Allen. If the ratios and percentages stayed the same if Josh rose his pass attempts to 73% from behind the LOS to 10 yards out from 46% that would result in 27 more completions for the  season and would raise his overall completion percentage for the season from 52% to 61%

Josh is a risk taker, pure and simple. He doesn’t give up on plays, sometimes to his detriment. Whereas Dak goes to his checkdowns much more quickly. I’m confident that Allen will start taking more of what the defense is giving him as we saw post injury last season. And when that happens with regularity, watch out. Because he has the arm to take what he wants when defenses adjust to the fact he’s taking what they’re giving him.

Edited by K-9
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14 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

Here's a third group:  Ones that don't care about the past insofar as today is concerned, but that has the same high-level of standards of football that, for example, our '90s team did.  But more importantly, that championship teams do.  That's not about letting go of the past, it's about realizing how championship teams, or at least playoff competitive ones, are built, largely via experience of watching the NFL over the years.  

 

Otherwise, I'm seeing a good amount of "none of Allen's issues are actually attributable to Allen himself."   You completely excused all but the entirety of his issues, or let's say the issues with the passing game, by pointing at "being forced to roll out," "because the DL was under his chin," and how he "carried the offense as a rookie void of any talent around him on his back," while completely glancing over his inaccuracy issues, which are no small matter.  

 

Perhaps you can explain then how a former 4th-round prospect that came and went in this league in three seasons in about the most unceremonious manner possible, and one that hadn't taken a snap in nearly two years, came in for a single game and played lights out ball, lead the same exact crappy O w/o that was "void of any talent around him," to the team's biggest margin of victory, second most points (by 1), most total yards, more passing yards than Allen managed in any given game all season long, along with the highest QB rating in any game of the season?  

 

Keep in mind that Barkley was a former 4th-round pick, had 8 TDs and 18 INTs in three seasons with a mere 6 starts, which frankly, wasn't all that much better than Peterson, and essentially sucked mastodon pecans.  

 

What, sheer luck that a QB came in all but literally off the sofa to do that?  

 

While entirely unpopular, the alternative/contrary viewpoint here is that Allen's issues actually do in fact pertain to Allen and that his athleticism masked quite a bit of them.  

 

I'm also not seeing the same things as you did in the game videos nearly to the same scale.  I see Allen with plenty of time quite often, suggesting that our OL probably wasn't as bad as everyone seems to want it to be in defense of Allen, while utterly failing to see numerous wide-open receivers, very often with those receivers waving furiously only to let their arms flop frustratingly back down as Allen didn't see them, something that all average QBs do on a routine basis.  

 

I'll try to find a video or two and post some time-stamps as to the plays.  No one wants to acknowledge that they occurred.  Granted, that would mean reinventing the narrative.  

 

 

Bravo on seeing things without rose tinted glasses.  I want Josh to be the answer, but the flaws can't be ignored.  I don't understand why we didn't draft an accurate QB in rounds 4-7.  Guess what:  Pats did.  Remember, this is same group who thought Peterman could.

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13 hours ago, Ga boy said:

Bravo on seeing things without rose tinted glasses.  I want Josh to be the answer, but the flaws can't be ignored.  I don't understand why we didn't draft an accurate QB in rounds 4-7.  Guess what:  Pats did.  Remember, this is same group who thought Peterman could.

 

 

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I'm part of the latter group as well especially given his draft profile coming in.  I still need to see his ability to improve in quickly going through his progressions, making adjustments at the line, and becoming more consistent with his accuracy.  He's basically who I thought he would be last year with two exceptions.  I didn't know he was that mobile and that passionate.

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3 hours ago, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

Well, it is a no brainer that Allen has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than Tannehill or Bortles.  That does not negate the OP's observation about his talent.  For myself, I have been hopeful for some time now that Josh Allen might be the long awaited answer at QB for Buffalo.  He has some characteristics that can't be coached, and I'm not just talking about his physical talent.  From all accounts that we've heard, he has more than the usual drive to be great.  He wants it.  He has natural leadership ability according to multiple observations from his teammates, and he has an excellent head on his shoulders for learning and understanding the mental aspect of the game: studying film, reading defenses and making decisions.  There is still stuff he has to do on the field, butthere is ample reason to be optimistic until the final verdict is in.

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Watching a QB grow is a journey.

Is he a finished product? No

Is he perfect at everything? Name me a QB who was excellent at every aspect of the QB game.

The kid has more potential than anyone we’ve had since Kelly. For some, that’s still not enough before his sophomore season.

Some of you are just Miserable. A leopard can’t change his spots.

 

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First, let me say that I liked the pick, and based on what we've seen so far, I have a good feeling about Allen developing into a long term starter in the NFL.

 

But...I do believe he has a lot of work to do in order to be considered a true "franchise QB". His decision making at times was poor and throws were way late (common for a rookie, sometimes he made up for it with a strong arm), his accuracy at times was poor, footwork at times was poor (leading to inaccurate throws), touch needed work, etc. I did notice improvement in those areas later in the season, but still needs work and to show consistency in those areas.

 

And while the line had its problems, IMO pass blocking was actually average. However, there were many 2nd/3rd and longs as a result of poor run blocking, making things that much more difficult on the rookie. The WR/TE positions weren't exactly loaded either...falling back on the "poor O-line, poor WRs" line shouldn't be used as a way to vindicate poor play from Josh, but it should at least factor in to an assessment of him in some way. Those were true variables in his play, but I think many fans are putting too much emphasis on that.

 

I get why optimism seems to be through the roof about Allen for many fans. There's a lot to like about him. His personality seems humbled yet fitting for a town like Buffalo, his demeanor on the field screams "winner" (very "Brady-esque"), and of course, he has a cannon, pretty important when throwing in windy New Era. But his stock with fans really elevated in 3 seperate games IMO.

 

First was the Vikings game. The Bills covered outright the largest spread in years, partly due to play from Allen. His fake screen TD pass to Croom, the Superman TD dive at the pylon after a scramble, and (most of all) hurdling Anthony Barr to gain a first down all catapulted Allen into a fan favorite position, even for many of the detractors. He is the young, rookie QB after all; we want to have reasons for optimism and excitement. Those last two plays elevated Josh to a bit of a superhero status among Bills fans, with plenty of hurdle memes going around...

 

The second was the Jaguars game. It was his first game back from injury IIRC, just in time to stick it to Ramsey. Aside from an all around decent performance, he made a great throw from the pocket, with two defenders sandwiching him, on a deep TD pass to Foster. It was the kind of play that we envisioned from him when he was drafted. And there were a couple more nice runs from him, one went for like 50 yards, and another was a TD that included a nasty stiff arm to a LB.

 

The third was week 17. Aside from a pick 6 into double coverage, it was a very good game from Josh. 5 total TDs, 3 passing, a real nice scramble for a TD blowout win. It was kind of a culmination of the year one progression we witnessed from Josh post injury.

 

There were also several other flashes as well. There was a great TD pass to Zay in the back of the endzone at Miami, and one of his best throws I thought came on the play he was injured at Houston.

 

Ending the season on such a high note, combined with reasons for optimism and likeability, has rolled itself into perhaps too much kool aide drinking. Maybe some fans are getting a bit ahead of themselves when it comes to Josh Allen. He has a long way to go, yet a lot of people speak as if they have seen all that they needed to see in order to "know". Truth is, we haven't...far from it actually. Its a lot of hype IMO, much of which he hasn't lived up to yet, but most would agree that, based on what we've seen and know, he has the potential to do so.

 

Who am I to tell people what to think? We're pretty starved as Bills fans for something like this. A young, exciting QB is exactly what we've lacked for 20 years, and now we have one that just might be something special. We've been built up at times in the past, only to be let down, but now, we have this shiny new toy, with a coaching staff and front office that appears, at the very least, to be competent and calculated. The extreme Allen praise and predictions may be premature, but we should all have at least some level of encouragement about how this will turn out. Things are looking up, now we need to see things grow from here. 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I spent a lot time watching film on Josh this weekend. From the eyes of an emotionally defeated, lowered expectation, pessimist, this is what I saw. 

 

OK, let's use the Week 14 Jets game.  

 

 

0:15:  If Allen does what average QBs do, he sees Shady at the release and hits him for a decent gain.  Instead he immediately defaults to looking downfield.  I count a good 4 seconds before he even has to think about scrambling, which is a lifetime in the pocket. 

 

0:27:  If he's thinking quickly, which he isn't, he has an opportunity hit McKenzie on the short out on 2nd-and-10 setting up a 3rd-and-short possibly even a 1st-down.  Yes, he runs for the 1st, but again, at the expense of the passing game and risk of injury.  

 

0:42:  He misses Clay in the right flat and throws an ill-advised ball to Shady who's 7 yards behind the LoS.  

 

1:33:  Instead of relying on a seemingly good pocket Allen takes off running prematurely and fumbles the ball away.  The TO resulted in a Jets FG.  

 

2:35:  Misses Ivory in the right flat and runs instead. 

 

2:57:  On 1st-and-25 from our own 11 instead of throwing the ball away he throws a highly ill-advised pass that results in an INT.  

 

3:28:  He's got a wide-open man short-right on 2nd-and-10, whereby if he hits him we likely have a 1st-down, or close.  Instead he throws a horribly thrown (read highly inaccurate) all into multiple coverage nearly ending with an INT.  Again, I count 3+ seconds easily with no particular pressure.  

 

3:48:  Thompson makes a beautiful break to the outside on the left but Allen's inaccurate throw is way too far outside.  

 

4:05:  I suppose this is one of those "drops" that everyone talks about, but Allen throws completely behind Jones who actually made a very nice break.  Very difficult to catch ball, the announcer says "through his hands" which is ridiculous.  And you know me, hardly a Jones apologist.  Allen had plenty of time and it was about a 13-yard throw.  

 

7:50:  A dangerous and risky throw resulting in only a gain of 3.  

 

4:57:  Allen has all kinds of time but underthrows Ivory short.  At his feet.  

 

5:14:  Instead of dumping off to Ivory or throwing the ball away as he had time to do, at Ivory's feet e.g., he takes a sack.  Again, some pressure but only after 3 seconds or so.  

 

5:35:  Pressure right from the start, but instead of simply throwing the ball away once he's outside the tackle box he heaves it downfield where only a Jet defender is.  He threw a lot of picks like that.  

 

6:06:  With plenty of time on a rollout, Allen ignores a wide-open Thomas and throws into triple coverage.  Granted, complete, but risky contrasted with the easy play on 1st-and-10.  

 

6:26:  Allen, again, with plenty of time, doesn't see (or ignores) Murphy on the left and instead throws to the more heavily covered Jones.  

 

6:37:  Instead of throwing to Thomas as he comes out of his break Allen throws further downfield incomplete.  

 

7:37:  Horrible play!  Murphy comes out of the backfield and is wide open for a huge gain if Allen hits him.  Also wide open downfield is Foster.  Instead of taking what the defense gives him, Allen throws into coverage and right to Trumaine Johnson on a horribly (read inaccurate) thrown ball.  

 

Now, there's absolutely no way that those things were all the result of the "D under his chin" or no talent.  An open receiver is an open receiver, it doesn't matter if he's talented or not.  

 

On a side note, Darnold, facing our "highly ranked D," outplayed Allen.  At one point you can hear the announcers talking about how Allen's rating is around 50 and Darnold's around 80.  

 

Also, that was one of Allen's last four games where the narrative is that he improved towards the end of the season.  Another one of those four, the one prior to that last Miami game, was that horrid NE game too.  So again, not really seeing where the narrative on this improvement is real.  

Edited by Ronin
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1 hour ago, Ronin said:

 

Exactly re: Peterman.  But everyone has faith in those same people that kept trying to shove the 5th-round square-peg of Peterman into the round hole.  But remember the sentiment here, largely mirroring the team's, that Peterman was "the most NFL ready QB in the draft" and a steal in the 5th.  

 

Again, my strategy would have been to build the OL and add a WR last season.  Take Edmunds at 12th, where I was suprised he was still there.  Then use pick 22 on OT Wynn, then 53, 56, and 65 on one more OL, a WR and another player.  Then grab Lock (or another QB) this season, also thereby buying them time.   As it now stands, if Allen doesn't really step up his game meaning become an average QB, they're toast.  Is that really what we need right now heading into the option years with the stadium issue at the forefront.  

 

None of that matters now however, all that matters is whether or not their strategy works.  But here's how I see that cliched "Process:"  

 

Free Agency:  Sign a whole bunch of quantity over quality free agents, try to get bargains by focusing on better players with injury histories and hope that they stay healthy.  Don't sign any impact free-agents, why not, I don't know.  

 

Draft:  Don't be original and stick to the preordained scripts of the national draft gurus, except when it comes to players from small schools, where to be sure to pick at least one in on days 1 & 2 every year while reaching at least once or twice (Singletary and Jones) in doing so.  Jones early in round 1 in '17, Allen in round 1 in '18, Oliver and Singletary in rounds 1 & 3 respectively this year.  Hope that their play against inferior competition holds up at the NFL level and hope that your QB issues that were rampant at Wyoming for some reason work their way out at the NFL level.  

 

Again, it is what it is, but I don't see much of a strategy there besides one of a kid-in-a-candy-shop variety and a smarter-by-half one.  If it works out, great, but so far Jones hasn't, Allen's dicey at best, with Oliver and Singletary, who has no particular skillset at the NFL level, pending.  

 

There have been a few "good" free agency signings, but I haven't seen one signing yet that's impressive.  The most expensive, Lotulolei, landed a player that isn't even on the field for 50% of the snaps.  I mean does that make sense, to make your most expensive acquisition a player that isn't even a 3-down player?  It doesn't to me, call me nuts.  

 

 

I'm of the belief that, if you don't find a QB, drafting well and signing top tier FAs (to typically inflated contracts, especially for Buffalo) is moot because many of those players will leave town as soon as their deals are up, because without a true, winning QB, the team will be losing more than winning, and turning over coaching staffs... That's spinning your wheels, and it's exactly what we've seem from the Bills for years. Finding a franchise QB is much more difficult than filling the roster via draft and FA. Having that QB also makes your team more attractive, which can have a positive effect on FA costs. 

 

To me the plan seems pretty clear. The Bills are going to build their core roster via the draft and get younger (with cheaper rookie contracts), fill spots in FA with mainly bargain type deals, hope their QB works out, then fill remaining skill positions to put them over the top (that is when I want and expect the Bills to pursue a big FA, it may be a bit cheaper comparatively speaking). All the while focusing on retaining their best players at the most important positions

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

OK, let's use the Week 14 Jets game.  

 

 

0:15:  If Allen does what average QBs do, he sees Shady at the release and hits him for a decent gain.  Instead he immediately defaults to looking downfield.  I count a good 4 seconds before he even has to think about scrambling, which is a lifetime in the pocket. 

 

0:27:  If he's thinking quickly, which he isn't, he has an opportunity hit McKenzie on the short out on 2nd-and-10 setting up a 3rd-and-short possibly even a 1st-down.  Yes, he runs for the 1st, but again, at the expense of the passing game and risk of injury.  

 

0:42:  He misses Clay in the right flat and throws an ill-advised ball to Shady who's 7 yards behind the LoS.  

 

1:33:  Instead of relying on a seemingly good pocket Allen takes off running prematurely and fumbles the ball away.  The TO resulted in a Jets FG.  

 

2:35:  Misses Ivory in the right flat and runs instead. 

 

2:57:  On 1st-and-25 from our own 11 instead of throwing the ball away he throws a highly ill-advised pass that results in an INT.  

 

3:28:  He's got a wide-open man short-right on 2nd-and-10, whereby if he hits him we likely have a 1st-down, or close.  Instead he throws a horribly thrown (read highly inaccurate) all into multiple coverage nearly ending with an INT.  Again, I count 3+ seconds easily with no particular pressure.  

 

3:48:  Thompson makes a beautiful break to the outside on the left but Allen's inaccurate throw is way too far outside.  

 

4:05:  I suppose this is one of those "drops" that everyone talks about, but Allen throws completely behind Jones who actually made a very nice break.  Very difficult to catch ball, the announcer says "through his hands" which is ridiculous.  And you know me, hardly a Jones apologist.  Allen had plenty of time and it was about a 13-yard throw.  

 

7:50:  A dangerous and risky throw resulting in only a gain of 3.  

 

4:57:  Allen has all kinds of time but underthrows Ivory short.  At his feet.  

 

5:14:  Instead of dumping off to Ivory or throwing the ball away as he had time to do, at Ivory's feet e.g., he takes a sack.  Again, some pressure but only after 3 seconds or so.  

 

5:35:  Pressure right from the start, but instead of simply throwing the ball away once he's outside the tackle box he heaves it downfield where only a Jet defender is.  He threw a lot of picks like that.  

 

6:06:  With plenty of time on a rollout, Allen ignores a wide-open Thomas and throws into triple coverage.  Granted, complete, but risky contrasted with the easy play on 1st-and-10.  

 

6:26:  Allen, again, with plenty of time, doesn't see (or ignores) Murphy on the left and instead throws to the more heavily covered Jones.  

 

6:37:  Instead of throwing to Thomas as he comes out of his break Allen throws further downfield incomplete.  

 

7:37:  Horrible play!  Murphy comes out of the backfield and is wide open for a huge gain if Allen hits him.  Also wide open downfield is Foster.  Instead of taking what the defense gives him, Allen throws into coverage and right to Trumaine Johnson on a horribly (read inaccurate) thrown ball.  

 

Now, there's absolutely no way that those things were all the result of the "D under his chin" or no talent.  An open receiver is an open receiver, it doesn't matter if he's talented or not.  

 

On a side note, Darnold, facing our "highly ranked D," outplayed Allen.  At one point you can hear the announcers talking about how Allen's rating is around 50 and Darnold's around 80.  

 

Also, that was one of Allen's last four games where the narrative is that he improved towards the end of the season.  Another one of those four, the one prior to that last Miami game, was that horrid NE game too.  So again, not really seeing where the narrative on this improvement is real.  

Darnold played like trash in that game until the 4th and would have loss that game if it were not for the BILLS garbage special teams.  Regarding Allen you can nik -pik any plays you want. The fact is that he needs to learn to check down. I would rather have a QB though that has be taught to learn how to check down, than to learn how to take a chance. 

 

This year he is being taught to read the defense from short to high as opposed to the rest of his career where he read the defense fom high to short so hopefully that does help his overall game. Remember Josh was a raw prospect coming out. As much as Darnold is praised especially toward the end of the season, he laid the same dud performace vs the PATS as Allen. Matter of fact Allen team scored more point albeit in garbage time.

Edited by Protocal69
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