"The Bills are winning this Draft" - Per Matt Miller

[JoPar_v2]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

So, you’re saying they’re just like you with an opposite take. Perfect.

 

You do know the history of B/R’s business model right? That they “employed” (without paying) legions of regular fans as content creators for years to build their brand, fans that, yes, like me (and you) needed no particular expertise or background related to the sport they covered? Just a willingness to work for free building a brand they would never have any stake in? Did you know that Mr. Mod? So forgive me for being a little skeptical about a thread touting the opinion of BR contributor.

 

once upon a time B/R links weren’t even allowed around here, so get off my back.

[Logic]

Like I said in another thread:

This draft has proven to me that the Bills can get great value at every single pick, attack areas of need, receive universal praise nationally from both mainstream and analytics nerd outlets....and there will STILL be a ton of whining and griping from people simply because the Bills didn't pick exactly who these people wanted them to pick. 

This year's gripers seem to have one thing in common: They wanted WRs, and they're upset that the Bills didn't take any, so they've decided to ***** on every pick the Bills make regardless, just because it isn't who THEY wanted. I even see a lot of "Bills should've taken X player at that spot", even though the player that said fan wanted wound up going like a full round later. Value is a real thing in the draft. You don't just say "I'm taking a WR next round come hell or high water!"

Anyway, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but it never ceases to amaze me how much people will whine just because the team didn't do what THEY wanted. I shouldn't be surprised, I guess, because it happens ever year, but sheesh.

For anyone sick of the negativity, I suggest taking a break from TBD and reading just about any national outlet's coverage of the Bills draft, because outside of the TBD bubble, it's hard to find anyone knocking what the Bills have done.

 

[Rochesterfan]

4 hours ago, fergie's ire said:

Not sure I trust your math.  For example, didn't it cost us 3 number 1's to draft Sammy Watkins?

 

 

 

Depends on your spin - especially with Watkins.  

 

We had 2 4th round picks that became 1 player in the third round.  Hence a loss of 1 pick.

 

If you hate the Sammy Pick - then our 2 number 1 picks became a different #1 that we used - so 3 number 1 picks on Sammy for the haters ?.

[Chandler#81]

28 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:

 

You do know the history of B/R’s business model right? That they “employed” (without paying) legions of regular fans as content creators for years to build their brand, fans that, yes, like me (and you) needed no particular expertise or background related to the sport they covered? Just a willingness to work for free building a brand they would never have any stake in? Did you know that Mr. Mod? So forgive me for being a little skeptical about a thread touting the opinion of BR contributor.

 

once upon a time B/R links weren’t even allowed around here, so get off my back.

I won’t get off your back and your inability to acknowledge change through history is the reason why. I’ll take these guys insights today  over any of the typical crap that flows from your fingertips.

[BillsFan17]

3 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

Does this mean not adding talent was the plan in years gone by?

 

 

People are going to have contrary opinions.  Rather than ridiculing people for possessing them, how about debating them for why you believe the way you do.

 

It's a legitimate exercise, but it does require some intelligence.  

Is this the same front office as in years past?

[LSHMEAB]

8 hours ago, Billzgobowlin said:

We always have next years draft to balance the RB room.

A 3rd round pick is a relatively large commitment to a RB. I think they must view Singletary as an eventual 3 down back. It's not great value otherwise. 

 

I wouldn't be particularly happy if RB is still a need next offseason.

[JoPar_v2]

6 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

I won’t get off your back and your inability to acknowledge change through history is the reason why. I’ll take these guys insights today  over any of the typical crap that flows from your fingertips.

 

So it’s not prudent to be skeptical of a source with a history such as B/R’s? Okay. For the record I don’t and never said I did disagree with this Matt Miller guy. I think the draft is going great for the Bills. I just questioned the bona fides considering the history of the source. 

 

But of course you just go ad hominem because laziness I guess. Such a great example you are for posters around here. Really top notch as always Chandler.

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, fergie's ire said:

 

I think that we might have discussed this about the Watkins trade.  What did we decide on?  I think it might have actually been 4 picks....The pick for Sammy at 4, the pick Cleveland used at 9.....the pick the following year...and a pick we would need to use in the future to get a receiver like the one Sammy was supposed to be.   Yeah....I think that was the conclusion the board came to...but feel free to discuss.

You mean one that has 2 good feet

[Scorp83]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Like I said in another thread:

This draft has proven to me that the Bills can get great value at every single pick, attack areas of need, receive universal praise nationally from both mainstream and analytics nerd outlets....and there will STILL be a ton of whining and griping from people simply because the Bills didn't pick exactly who these people wanted them to pick. 

This year's gripers seem to have one thing in common: They wanted WRs, and they're upset that the Bills didn't take any, so they've decided to ***** on every pick the Bills make regardless, just because it isn't who THEY wanted. I even see a lot of "Bills should've taken X player at that spot", even though the player that said fan wanted wound up going like a full round later. Value is a real thing in the draft. You don't just say "I'm taking a WR next round come hell or high water!"

Anyway, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but it never ceases to amaze me how much people will whine just because the team didn't do what THEY wanted. I shouldn't be surprised, I guess, because it happens ever year, but sheesh.

For anyone sick of the negativity, I suggest taking a break from TBD and reading just about any national outlet's coverage of the Bills draft, because outside of the TBD bubble, it's hard to find anyone knocking what the Bills have done.

 

I agree! Like I said in my original post, I know in my heart this is a good draft... I'm a little disappointed they didn't address WR. But that doesn't take away from the value & picks they brought in... my favorite pick right now is the one everyone doesn't like Singletary. I think come next year whe. we don't have Shady or Gore... this kid is a bell cow... & everyone is going to forget they didn't want him this year. He gives us youth at the position. Something we were lacking for sure!

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

A 3rd round pick is a relatively large commitment to a RB. I think they must view Singletary as an eventual 3 down back. It's not great value otherwise. 

 

I wouldn't be particularly happy if RB is still a need next offseason.

It might be, Gore & Shady might not be here come next year bother have 1 yr left & I doubt they're going to extend any offers.

[boater]

12 hours ago, MtlBillsFan said:

I love Beane but the guy is human. I'm with the posters who thinks two 4th to move up to get Knox is a bit expensive. Is it a big deal? Probably not. But that is two less chance to hit for a starting player which is very likely in the 4th.

Go Bills!

 

I mentioned in a different thread, I think part of the Bills decision here was not just getting Knox, but #### blocking New England from getting him. Which if true, makes the price seem more reasonable.

 

Beating New England at their own game...priceless.

[Rocbillsfan1]

the cries for wr is nauseating at this point. There wasn’t a wr who was going to just come in and start for this team. They have a bunch of quality WRs on the roster already with brown Beasley foster jones McKenzie and Williams. For the love of god stop crying about WRs lol. You people do know that if this group doesn’t preform up to your standards they can still address the issue next year right. Just look at all the great moves this Fo has made the past two years to fill all the obvious holes on this team. Go bills. 

Edited April 27, 2019 by Rocbillsfan1

[LSHMEAB]

32 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

 

It might be, Gore & Shady might not be here come next year bother have 1 yr left & I doubt they're going to extend any offers.

They used a 3rd round pick on a running back. Singletary is supposed to be the guy. I would be shocked if Shady OR Gore were on the team in 2020. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be shocked if one of them wasn't on the team in 2019.

 

That being said, we shouldn't need to draft a running back in the top 3rd of the draft if Singletary is the right guy.

 

Use the Chiefs for example. They drafted Hunt in the 4th to be the bellcow. Had it not been for the off field issues, they may have needed more backs, but they wouldn't need to be drafting one relatively early. 

 

When you spend a 3rd on a RB, the expectations are pretty high.

Edited April 27, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[BillsFan1988]

6 hours ago, MJS said:

Beane and McDermott have already proven, in their last two years of drafting, that they are good at identifying talent and getting guys that will help the team. Edmunds, Allen, Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, Tre White, Wyatt Teller, Dion Dawkins, Zay Jones. Undrafted Levi Wallace and Robert Foster. These are guys from the last two draft classes that have been significant contributors and are the building blocks of the new team. You can't argue with their success rate.

Those are definitely exceptions. If you never found diamonds in the rough, the draft would only be 4 rounds long. But generally speaking, higher picks are better.

The problem with your rebuttal average random fan is that Whaley and his scouts ran the 2017 draft not Beane. 

[Bockeye]

Hmmmm....maybe the front office knows more than all you hand wringers.  

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/the-2020-wr-class-could-truly-be-historic

 

Oh yeah, there’s this too. Some STUD FA WR’s next year. I’d take every single one over any that were taken in this draft. 

 

https://clutchpoints.com/top-10-nfl-free-agents-2020-class/

 

Edited April 27, 2019 by Bockeye
Spelling error

[HappyDays]

10 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

I appreciate the good press but I have to laugh at draft grades on draft weekend. No one really has a clue. I always try to find the good in every pick but who knows. What I really don't understand is the posters who act like any pick is terrible and some other player would have been better. We're all just guessing.

[MJS]

31 minutes ago, BillsFan1988 said:

The problem with your rebuttal average random fan is that Whaley and his scouts ran the 2017 draft not Beane. 

McDermott was in charge. Everybody knows that. That's why I said Beane AND McDermott. Those two are responsible for the latest rebuild of this team.

Edited April 27, 2019 by MJS

[Scorp83]

9 hours ago, billykay said:

I think that Kroft will be their starter, at least to start the season.

I think so too... but he has had a history of being dinged up... so we'll see come camp

[BillsFan1988]

10 hours ago, MJS said:

McDermott was in charge. Everybody knows that. That's why I said Beane AND McDermott. Those two are responsible for the latest rebuild of this team.

He might of made the final decisions but those were players brought to him by Whaley and his scouts. Btw don't glorify that draft to much we missed out on some really good players in that draft including the MVP of the NFL . U can't trade our last 3 drafts combined for Mahomes. Which btw I the random fan wanted very badly in the 1st rd. I guess I should be paid millions to.  ?

[Chandler#81]

17 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Can’t wait to put this trophy next to our offseason champions trophy. 

We’re gonna need a bigger display room!

[GunnerBill]

12 hours ago, MJS said:

McDermott was in charge. Everybody knows that. That's why I said Beane AND McDermott. Those two are responsible for the latest rebuild of this team.

 

And all three of our picks in the first two rounds of that draft had been on visits to the Carolina Panthers.

 

Sorry, what is that Mr Goodell? Noooo of course Brandon Beane wasn't running our draft while still employed in Carolina... what a preposterous suggestion! 

[auburnbillsbacker]

On 4/27/2019 at 1:32 AM, Scorp83 said:

Even though I know in my heart this is a good draft... I'm left a tad disappointed that we haven't address WR yet... but man Adam Lefkoe, Matt Miller & Conner Rogers just gave our GM the highest praise I've ever seen in a longtime!

 

It's definitely a treat for every person on this board to watch this video! 

 

They even went so far to call other teams "Stupid" for allowing the Bills to do what they're doing ???

 

https://bleacherreport.com/post/buffalo-bills/6325b7d3-19fb-46ad-8781-17245cef0af2

 

Enjoy... & yea... let's discuss how everyone is feeling so far about the draft too... we don't have ANY 4th Rd picks, so we won't see any action until about 2pm tomorrow afternoon. 

I hope those guys are right.

[Rochesterfan]

16 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

A 3rd round pick is a relatively large commitment to a RB. I think they must view Singletary as an eventual 3 down back. It's not great value otherwise. 

 

I wouldn't be particularly happy if RB is still a need next offseason.

 

I would expect RB to be a need going into next off-season no matter what.  You have 2 guys in Shady and Gore that will make this team and will be most likely done after this season.  

 

That would leave only Yeldon left - now add Singletary and you have 2 - they will need additional help next year, but they will have had an entire year to see exactly what they have in Singletary and what they need to further address the position.

 

Additionally, Singletary has a lot of wear on the body and this year will allow some time to recover - while still getting to know what he can do.  He will not be the primary back and may be deactivated some weeks as he learns, but this pick was not necessarily about 2019, but looking at value on their board and 2020 as a goal.

[Rochesterfan]

15 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

They used a 3rd round pick on a running back. Singletary is supposed to be the guy. I would be shocked if Shady OR Gore were on the team in 2020. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be shocked if one of them wasn't on the team in 2019.

 

That being said, we shouldn't need to draft a running back in the top 3rd of the draft if Singletary is the right guy.

 

Use the Chiefs for example. They drafted Hunt in the 4th to be the bellcow. Had it not been for the off field issues, they may have needed more backs, but they wouldn't need to be drafting one relatively early. 

 

When you spend a 3rd on a RB, the expectations are pretty high.

 

 

Why was Hunt available in the 4th - because of his history.  He fell because of suspensions.

 

Additionally - he was drafted by KC in the 3rd round not the 4th round - so what is the difference.  He was drafted to be the back-up to Spencer Ware and only got to start due to injury.  We are not to that point - maybe McCoy or Gore get hurt and he starts - we don’t know, but the situation here is similar.

 

Both he and Hunt were drafted to be back-ups for a year and prove what they could do - exactly what you expect with a 3rd round pick.

Edited April 28, 2019 by Rochesterfan

[foreboding]

On 4/27/2019 at 2:02 AM, sven233 said:

My biggest issue with this pick is not the player.  He could turn out to be awesome.  My only concern is giving up 2 4th round picks to get him.  But, it looks like Beane is starting to feel like our roster is getting very close to where he wants it to be and that the chances of these lower round guys making the team is slim.  If that's the case, then this makes giving up the 2 4th rounders a bit easier to swallow.

Really tho he gave up one pick, they swapped our 4th for their 3rd. We had to give a 4th to make it happen.

Edited April 28, 2019 by foreboding

[LSHMEAB]

3 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

Why was Hunt available in the 4th - because of his history.  He fell because of suspensions.

 

Additionally - he was drafted by KC in the 3rd round not the 4th round - so what is the difference.  He was drafted to be the back-up to Spencer Ware and only got to start due to injury.  We are not to that point - maybe McCoy or Gore get hurt and he starts - we don’t know, but the situation here is similar.

 

Both he and Hunt were drafted to be back-ups for a year and prove what they could do - exactly what you expect with a 3rd round pick.

Right. And using Hunt as an example, he proved exactly what he could do(as a player).

 

I feel like people have VERY low expectations for Singletary. The way I look at it, you spend a third round pick on a RB because you believe he's going to be the man. RB's are a dime a dozen and be found in many different ways that don't include high draft capital. 

 

If he's not the primary back in 2020, it wasn't a good pick IMO.

 

We WILL need new backs in 2020. Gore and Shady will be gone. Yeldon. Meh. My hope is that Singletary is a bellcow and the backs we need are entirely complimentary. If a Kamara happens to be available, that's kind of a different story. He's essentially a receiver out of the backfield. Every team would love a guy like that, but it's more of a luxury than a need.

 

It was really the only pick I didn't like FWIW. Feel pretty good overall about the draft.

Edited April 28, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Scorp83]

4 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I would expect RB to be a need going into next off-season no matter what.  You have 2 guys in Shady and Gore that will make this team and will be most likely done after this season.  

 

That would leave only Yeldon left - now add Singletary and you have 2 - they will need additional help next year, but they will have had an entire year to see exactly what they have in Singletary and what they need to further address the position.

 

Additionally, Singletary has a lot of wear on the body and this year will allow some time to recover - while still getting to know what he can do.  He will not be the primary back and may be deactivated some weeks as he learns, but this pick was not necessarily about 2019, but looking at value on their board and 2020 as a goal.

I said the same thing... RB will most likely be a need next offseason. But we'll see about the wear & tear on Singletary.  If he ends up being great, it won't matter... the great one's don't breakdown when used alot... 

[BillsFan4]

https://theathletic.com/951917/2019/04/29/using-the-consensus-big-board-to-determine-how-teams-did-in-the-draft/   (sub required) 

 

Quote

The first step is to generate a valuation of every player in the draft, something the Consensus Big Board can do in a relatively objective way. While the top 300 is the most relevant feature of the board, we can see that many players in the draft weren’t in the top 300. To account for that, I’ve extended the board to 800 players for this analysis. The 60 evaluators together had grades on all but one player in the draft — Murray State’s Quincy Williams.

 

The Consensus Big Board isn’t a bad way to evaluate players either. When looking at how it projected players in the 2014 and 2015 draft, it was almost identically as efficient as the NFL.

 

From there, we can determine a player’s value by his rank order, similar to the way draft picks are valued in the Jimmy Johnson trade chart and Chase Stuart trade chart. From there, we can subtract a pick’s value from the player’s value to see how good the pick was. In order to account for the fact that teams entered the draft with different amounts of draft capital, we can divide that number by the value of the pick to even things out.

 

Quote

 

 

Bills ranked 3rd. 

 

And they were 4th on their adjusted rankings (that take into account team need + positional value)

 

Quote

 

 

Edit - also ranked 2nd in Dane Brugler’s rankings -

 

https://theathletic.com/951557/2019/04/28/dane-bruglers-nfl-draft-class-power-rankings/

 

Quote

Favorite pick: Cody Ford, OT/G, Oklahoma
I just as easily could have gone with Ed Oliver, but to land Ford at pick No. 38 is tremendous value (No. 19 on my board). The Bills flirted with the idea of trading up for Oliver, but he fell in their laps without having to sacrifice trade-up assets. Ford can start at either tackle or guard and will be a valuable foundation piece as the Bills look to build the offense around Josh Allen.

 

Questionable pick: Darryl Johnson, EDGE, North Carolina A&T
It is understandable why the Bills are rolling the dice in the seventh round on a bendy, productive FCS pass-rusher. But the absence of power was my biggest takeaway after studying his tape, as he lacks the shed strength to easily detach once engulfed by blockers.

 

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Vosean Joseph, LB, Florida
Joseph is a fun player on tape with his quick read/react skills and uncanny ability to stay free from blocks and find the ball carrier. He fell in the draft due to discipline issues (on and off the field) and a hamstring injury that kept him from working out prior to the draft. But if he matures, Joseph will outplay his draft spot.

 

Edited April 30, 2019 by BillsFan4

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

https://theathletic.com/951917/2019/04/29/using-the-consensus-big-board-to-determine-how-teams-did-in-the-draft/   (sub required) 

 

 

 

 

Bills ranked 3rd. 

 

And they were 4th on their adjusted rankings (that take into account team need + positional value)

 

 

 

 

There really is no arguing that they DIDN'T get good board value.

 

The problem is that the board doesn't account for positional value.

 

When the draft happens some teams actually do...........and guards and running backs tumble..........so if you take one it looks like you scored value.

 

And if you believe in the "can't go broke making a profit" school of thought then you did score.

 

 

[BillsFan4]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There really is no arguing that they DIDN'T get good board value.

 

The problem is that the board doesn't account for positional value.

 

When the draft happens some teams actually do...........and guards and running backs tumble..........so if you take one it looks like you scored value.

 

And if you believe in the "can't go broke making a profit" school of thought then you did score.

 

 

The 2nd chart I posted (where the Bills were ranked 4th best draft) does account for positional value.

 

Heres the description -

 

Quote

On its face, this makes sense; it’s better to grab better players early. But there are at least two problems — first, it doesn’t account for team needs or positional value, both of which are big parts of grading any draft. If a team grabs the best available player and then benches him for the life of his contract, they didn’t get value out of that pick. If a team reaches for a quarterback — as the Consensus Big Board argues Arizona technically did — then that’s probably fine, since quarterbacks matter more than any other position.

 

If we let NFL teams determine positional value by looking at the past four drafts and comparing which positions were typically “overdrafted” or “underdrafted” by consensus boards we can get a positional modifier that evens everything out.

We can also use a team-needs matrix to give teams boosts for grabbing players who were needs and likely to play sooner. While the “best player available” draft philosophy is intuitively appealing, it seems like every team follows it while mysteriously also addressing their major needs in the draft — no team seems to end up with four running backs or three quarterbacks.

 

While BPA can supersede need at times — the Vikings drafting Adrian Peterson or the Packers drafting Aaron Rodgers, for example — teams will mostly account for need and we will, too.

 

For that, we’ll use the chart generated by Drafttek, which gives us an approximation of the team’s needs entering the draft.