Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[NewEraBills]

13 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Possible.  But your theory depends on us drafting a WR high, which I just don't see happening.

 

We haven't replaced Kyle Williams, and will have a handful of talented DTs staring us in the face at #9.

We are clearly in the market for another DE, but were unable to get one in free agency (at least not yet).

Our weakest position is Tight End.  If Daboll is trying to copy the Patriots at all, this will not be the case for long.

 

Now that he's got some freedom with the cap, you can see how Beane likes to approach the roster.  Instead of going top-heavy, he likes stockpiling depth and making them fight for a roster spot.  I don't see him considering Zay Jones expendable yet.  I also don't think he's ready to hand Robert Foster a Top 3 spot after handful of good games his rookie season.

 

 

 

 

Our position with the least depth is TE, but I don't know if the coaches and Beane think this is a weak position.  I mean, let's think about this for a moment.  Do you think they are going to pay Kroft 6 mil a year to be a backup?  It's essentially the same contract Jessie James is getting with one less year on the deal.  I think they will add a TE but it might not be as early as people want it to be.

Edited March 27, 2019 by NewEraBills

[HappyDays]

We added Brown and Beasley and we're meeting with just about every receiver projected to go in the 1st and 2nd rounds. I don't think this is even up for debate anymore. Zay's spot is in danger. Regardless of how we feel about him they are looking for an upgrade.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Brown and Beasley are locks because of their signings. 

 

Brown > Foster who is not a lock if he can’t do things other than run fast 

 

Zay is an NFL WR. Duke is a CFL WR, absolutely not a lock. He hasn’t proven a thing in the league. 

 

Zay is still the most versatile WR on the Bills. 

 

Roberts May be a lock, depending on how good the rest of his game is (ST defending and WR) 

 

to me cerainty of being on the roster follows this sequence 1 being most likely, last being least:

 

Likely: 

1. Cole

2. Brown 

3. Zay

4. Roberts 

5. Foster 

 

Outside looking In:

Isaiah / Duke / Scott / Ray ray / v Boldin / Phillips 

 

 

You have Foster on the bottom of the list?  Really?

 

Zay:  30 games, zero 100 yard games.  Foster:  7 games, three 100 yard games.

 

Zay also has 22 games of his 30 under 40 yards of production.  Has a atrocious catch rate, isnt that fast, is not physical, and a sloppy route runner.  How can not fathom how anyone could put Zay as "safer" than Foster.  

Not to mention, Foster has been and still working out in CA with Allen.  Where is Zay?  No reports of him being there.  

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Success]

I’d be surprised if Zay didn’t make the cut, but who knows.  Depends how the draft goes.

 

The talent is there, and he’s more versatile than Foster.  His biggest issue is drops, which was nonexistent in college - hopefully just growing pains in the nfl,

 

I’m a fan.  But I’m a fan of anyone who wears a Bills uni.  So, there’s that.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

49 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You have Foster on the bottom of the list?  Really?

 

 

It’s not me you should worry about...   the Bills depth chart does, and that’s more important to this topic.

 

BTW Foster.. 13 games not 7.  Sorry you need to count those other 6 games where he wasn’t even good enough to step on the field. 

 

Brown is a better Foster. Zay has a different role. Let’s not get carried away with Foster just yet, he had TWENTY SEVEN catches on the whole season. 

Edited March 27, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[JaCrispy]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Agreed.  If anyone goes back and reads my full OP and many of my replies, they will see this is exactly what I said would happen...a trade of Zay Jones.  

 

I suggested we would sign at least 1 or 2 FA WR's...which we did.  That makes 3 new WR's in that room right now:  Brown, Cole and Duke.  

 

Most people felt Zay had a better shot at the slot spot, and I did as well.  But the issue is he doesn't do anything good that you need your slot WR to be.  He's not twitchy or quick, he doesn't have reliable hands, and he isnt a polished route runner.  Enter Cole Beasley, job is officially 100% his barring injury.  

 

Now Zay is already competing with Foster (who already passed him up) and Brown, who was not signed to a 4 year deal to sit on the bench.  As we sit right now, Zay may be "penciled" in by de facto of being here as a "starter" just because he knows the playbook.  The REALITY is that he is really 4th on the depth chart right now and will have to beat out either Foster or Brown because no way he takes Coles job.  But, he doesnt have the speed of either of those guys, nor does he do anything else better than them.  They are better WR's right now and Foster is still getting better and at a faster pace.

 

I will also note, Foster is out in CA working with Josh all offseason...I haven't seen any reports of Zay being there.  He could be, I could have not seen them, but I searched online and didnt find anything about Zay working out with Josh this offseason.  

 

Now we still have Duke who is a wildcard, and he has the advantage of being a different skill set that can have value to the roster by being a big target with a big catch radius.  He still has to prove he can play in the NFL, but make no mistake about it, Zay is in competition with him too even for the 4th WR spot.  

 

And that is all BEFORE we likely add a WR in the draft.  NOW, if we do NOT add a WR early (first 3 rounds) in the draft, then Zay has a better chance of at least being on the roster, but I think he will be no higher than 4th on the depth chart.  But that is also why I think Beane will look to trade him...Beane is a master at getting value and he knows if Zay sits on the bench a lot this year in a limited and diminished role, his value will be almost nothing next year and he becomes a cut candidate rather than a trade candidate.  And after spending a 2nd round pick on him, I think Beane would like some return on that if he isn't part of the long term plans.  

 

Which is why I think he gets traded sometime before week 1.  And honestly, wouldn't surprise me if he was used in a trade up package at some point during the draft.  Although, I do not expect that and I think Zay more likely gets traded in something like you suggested njbluff or he makes it to camp and preseason and gets traded sometime during that like Watkins was.  Maybe even showcase him early in preseason like they did with Watkins.

Nice post...if I could also add something it would be that Zay doesn’t play special teams either...so not being a starter and not playing ST doesn’t bode well for Mr. Jones.

[Alphadawg7]

23 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Nice post...if I could also add something it would be that Zay doesn’t play special teams either...so not being a starter and not playing ST doesn’t bode well for Mr. Jones.

 

Thanks and yes, great point also

 

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

We added Brown and Beasley and we're meeting with just about every receiver projected to go in the 1st and 2nd rounds. I don't think this is even up for debate anymore. Zay's spot is in danger. Regardless of how we feel about him they are looking for an upgrade.

 

I think DK is still in play at 9 even though everyone thinks it will be a DL.  It very well could be DL at 9, which is fine if it is.  But I can see us going DT (say Oliver) or EDGE (say Sweat) at 9 then seeing Beane trade back up into the first or even just earlier in the 2nd to get someone like say Harry (or whatever WR Beane covets).  

 

OR:  I can see Beane grabbing the ultimate big play threat in DK then trading back up into the first to get someone like say Simmons or taking Tillery in the 2nd.  Or maybe drafting someone like say Ximines in the 2nd on the EDGE.  

 

OR:  I can easily see us trade down to grab an extra 2nd and then with those first 3 picks in some combo of WR, DL (someone like Simmons or Tillery), and maybe a TE/OL with the other pick.  

 

One way or another, I think there is a strong possibility we will go after a WR somewhere within the first 2 rounds.

 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[DuckyBoys]

He is coming into year 3 where often wrs break out.  However he also has always been a 11 yd per catch player.  I don't think he fast enough to win on the outside and not quick enough to separate in the slot.  I'm thinking if any team is even interested they move on.  Maybe they wait to see how the draft plays out. 

[Alphadawg7]

39 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

He is coming into year 3 where often wrs break out.  However he also has always been a 11 yd per catch player.  I don't think he fast enough to win on the outside and not quick enough to separate in the slot.  I'm thinking if any team is even interested they move on.  Maybe they wait to see how the draft plays out. 

 

Issue is the "Third Year" breakout thing is a myth and been disproven many times.  A WR is slightly more likely to break out in year 1 or year 2 than they are in year 3.  And they are 3 times more likely to break out in years 1 and 2 combined than in year 3.  

 

There has never been any truth to the notion that year 3 is the magical year for a WR in terms of breaking out.  If you compare year 1, year 2 and year 3...the odds are higher in both years 1 and years 2.  

 

Now that doesn't mean a WR may not have their best year of the 3 years in during that 3rd year as WR's on average have their best seasons in years 4 through 7.  So they can keep getting better.  But when we are talking about when a WR really comes into their own and has that breakout year (something Zay hasn't come close to yet), its three times more likely to have happened in his first 2 years than the 3rd year.  

 

Does not mean Zay can't break out in year 3, but it certainly means that there is no added probability of him breaking out just because its his 3rd year.  In fact its actually less likely that he will year 3 if he did not in years 1 or 2.

 

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

It’s not me you should worry about...   the Bills depth chart does, and that’s more important to this topic.

 

BTW Foster.. 13 games not 7.  Sorry you need to count those other 6 games where he wasn’t even good enough to step on the field. 

 

Brown is a better Foster. Zay has a different role. Let’s not get carried away with Foster just yet, he had TWENTY SEVEN catches on the whole season. 

 

Sorry, but those 6 games he didnt really play.  So no, not counting them as he had no real opportunity to contribute as a raw rookie.  I am comparing the impact Zay and Foster had when playing relevant minutes.

 

Zay has been on the field as a starter for 30 games.  ZERO 100 yard games.  Foster was a starter for 5 games and played relevant minutes in 2 more games.  He has THREE 100 yard games in that span. 

 

And not only did Foster put the work in to become a weapon, he's putting the work in this offseason with Josh right now...where is Zay?  Posting Gym pictures instead of working out with Josh in CA.  

Edited March 28, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Issue is the "Third Year" breakout thing is a myth and been disproven many times.  A WR is slightly more likely to break out in year 1 or year 2 than they are in year 3.  And they are 3 times more likely to break out in years 1 and 2 combined than in year 3.  

 

There has never been any truth to the notion that year 3 is the magical year for a WR in terms of breaking out.  If you compare year 1, year 2 and year 3...the odds are higher in both years 1 and years 2.  

 

Now that doesn't mean a WR may not have their best year of the 3 years in during that 3rd year as WR's on average have their best seasons in years 4 through 7.  So they can keep getting better.  But when we are talking about when a WR really comes into their own and has that breakout year (something Zay hasn't come close to yet), its three times more likely to have happened in his first 2 years than the 3rd year.  

 

Does not mean Zay can't break out in year 3, but it certainly means that there is no added probability of him breaking out just because its his 3rd year.  In fact its actually less likely that he will year 3 if he did not in years 1 or 2.

 

Sorry, but those 6 games he didnt really play.  So no, not counting them as he had no real opportunity to contribute as a raw rookie.  I am comparing the impact Zay and Foster had when playing relevant minutes.

 

Zay has been on the field as a starter for 30 games.  ZERO 100 yard games.  Foster was a starter for 5 games and played relevant minutes in 2 more games.  He has THREE 100 yard games in that span. 

 

And not only did Foster put the work in to become a weapon, he's putting the work in this offseason with Josh right now...where is Zay?  Posting Gym pictures instead of working out with Josh in CA.  

 

27 catches in 13 GP.... WOW

 

Marquise Goodwin had three 100 yd games one year too. 

 

Zay is ahead of Foster on the depth chart. Zay is one of the players getting snaps ahead of him

 

Brown signing put foster on the bubble. 

 

not sure how else to explain this.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Stank_Nasty]

8 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

27 catches in 13 GP.... WOW

 

Marquise Goodwin had three 100 yd games one year too. 

 

Zay is ahead of Foster on the depth chart. 

 

Brown signing put foster on the bubble. 

 

not sure how else to explain this.

 

 

I don’t think many will be surprised if foster is on the team and jones isn’t. 

 

One of them actually at least did something well, even if it was just go deep, last year that led to very nice production down the stretch. The others claim to fame all year was helping KB line up in the right spot every week. 

 

Whats funny is you act like alpha is the one that’s missing something here. How about stop being married to your wr “roles” argument and realize they may just keep the best ball players. Fosters performance after being called back up was a way better stretch than any Jones has ever had. 

 

I’d be confident wagering the opening day lineup features brown and foster on either side with Beasley in the slot. 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

27 catches in 13 GP.... WOW

 

Marquise Goodwin had three 100 yd games one year too. 

 

Zay is ahead of Foster on the depth chart. 

 

Brown signing put foster on the bubble. 

 

not sure how else to explain this.

 

 

 

You may be the only one on the planet who believes this.  But hey, we are all entitled to our opinions, so all good.  

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

It’s not me you should worry about...   the Bills depth chart does, and that’s more important to this topic.

 

BTW Foster.. 13 games not 7.  Sorry you need to count those other 6 games where he wasn’t even good enough to step on the field. 

 

Brown is a better Foster. Zay has a different role. Let’s not get carried away with Foster just yet, he had TWENTY SEVEN catches on the whole season. 

I can almost guarantee that Foster is way ahead of Zay on the depth chart.

 

If the play of both receivers didn’t tell the story, the “speed” trend should.

 

Bills added Brown, (fast) and Beasley (very quick).

 

Foster is WAY faster than Zay and was far more productive last year. 

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You may be the only one on the planet who believes this.  But hey, we are all entitled to our opinions, so all good.  

The comical part is he thinks the jokes on US. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Nice post...if I could also add something it would be that Zay doesn’t play special teams either...so not being a starter and not playing ST doesn’t bode well for Mr. Jones.

 

Yes but what does bode well for Jones and easily negates not being a starter or playing special teams is he's still on a cheap rookie contract.  Likely will take one or maybe two of these other guys to clearly outplay him in camp that he drops down to around #7 on the depth chart t obe cut.  The other thing that could hurt him is I do believe the Bills will draft a TE, that would leave them with four including the converted tackle they signed last week.  If they decide to go with four TE's that likely will reduce the number of slots for WR.

 

I'd say there's a much better chance he's not on the Bills opening day roster because he gets traded, but not because he gets cut. 

 

If the Bills were to make two trades between now and opening day, will be surprised if Zay isn't part of one of the trades. 

 

How about the Bills sign one of the FA DE they've been talking with then trade Zay and Lawson and a 4th rounder for AJ Green

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

27 catches in 13 GP.... WOW

 

Marquise Goodwin had three 100 yd games one year too. 

 

Zay is ahead of Foster on the depth chart. Zay is one of the players getting snaps ahead of him

 

Brown signing put foster on the bubble. 

 

not sure how else to explain this.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I don’t think many will be surprised if foster is on the team and jones isn’t. 

 

One of them actually at least did something well, even if it was just go deep, last year that led to very nice production down the stretch. The others claim to fame all year was helping KB line up in the right spot every week. 

 

Whats funny is you act like alpha is the one that’s missing something here. How about stop being married to your wr “roles” argument and realize they may just keep the best ball players. Fosters performance after being called back up was a way better stretch than any Jones has ever had. 

 

I’d be confident wagering the opening day lineup features brown and foster on either side with Beasley in the slot. 

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You may be the only one on the planet who believes this.  But hey, we are all entitled to our opinions, so all good.  

 

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

I can almost guarantee that Foster is way ahead of Zay on the depth chart.

 

If the play of both receivers didn’t tell the story, the “speed” trend should.

 

Bills added Brown, (fast) and Beasley (very quick).

 

Foster is WAY faster than Zay and was far more productive last year. 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

The comical part is he thinks the jokes on US. 

 

Im just going to stash these here together so it’s easier to find inSeptember.... Thx

[Alphadawg7]

11 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

 

 

 

 

Im just going to stash these here together so it’s easier to find inSeptember.... Thx

 

So to be clear, you’re pinning those there to show that you’re claiming FOSTER won’t make the team right?

[Ronin]

On 2/27/2019 at 7:45 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

I won’t cut him either.  But Moulds was sitting behind HOFers.  The last 2 years have been some of the worst group of receivers in team history.  

 

It was also a completely different era, one in which RBs and defense reigned supreme.  

 

Consider, Favre hit 39 TDs that season and it was considered all but monumental.  Only one other QB threw for more than 30 TDs.  

 

Same with yards, only three QBs threw for more than 4,-000 yards, Brunnell led with 4,367.  

 

Last season 9 QBs threw for 30+ TDs and 12 had more than 4,000 yards.  

 

Average number of TDs in ''96 was 15.  Average number of TDs last season was 22-24, 50% more.  

 

Average number of passing yards in '96 was around 2,700.  Average number of passing yards last season was over 3,700.  

[SouthNYfan]

13 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

27 catches in 13 GP.... WOW

 

Marquise Goodwin had three 100 yd games one year too. 

 

Zay is ahead of Foster on the depth chart. Zay is one of the players getting snaps ahead of him

 

Brown signing put foster on the bubble. 

 

not sure how else to explain this.

 

 

 

Nobody is getting snaps ahead of anybody right now bud.

It's off-season.

Foster destroyed Zay when given the opportunity to start.

I was really down on Foster prior to him being given a chance.

I was definitely wrong.

 

Not sure how else to explain it to you, but Foster produced much more than Zay when given the opportunity to actually play.

 

 

11 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

 

 

 

 

Im just going to stash these here together so it’s easier to find inSeptember.... Thx

 

Stash away.

 

16 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So to be clear, you’re pinning those there to show that you’re claiming FOSTER won’t make the team right?

 

Boom.

[Ronin]

Also, one of Jones' two best and only noteworthy games was against the Jets with Barkley throwing.  The other was that emotionally-charged Fins game to end the season where the entire team was playing on all cylinders against an apathetic Miami team.  

 

Jones averaged 5.25 catches for 48 yards in four games w/o Allen, which included games featuring one game with Barkley, two with Anderson, and one with Peterman.  

 

He averaged fewer than 3 catches for 38 yards with Allen.   .

He's clearly not Allen's favorite target.  I see Beasley doing better.  

11 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

Boom.

 

You see Jones making the team over Foster?  

 

interesting take.  Curious the logic there.  

 

I see with Beasley on board Jones not getting many reps.  Same role except that Beasley actually catches the balls thrown contrasted with Jones who ranks near the bottom, AHEM, alongside John Brown, for horrific catch %.  

 

Methinks that they had better draft at least two WRs in rounds 3 & 4.  I'd say 1/2 but we need OL-men so badly first.  

[Alphadawg7]

41 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

Also, one of Jones' two best and only noteworthy games was against the Jets with Barkley throwing.  The other was that emotionally-charged Fins game to end the season where the entire team was playing on all cylinders against an apathetic Miami team.  

 

Jones averaged 5.25 catches for 48 yards in four games w/o Allen, which included games featuring one game with Barkley, two with Anderson, and one with Peterman.  

 

He averaged fewer than 3 catches for 38 yards with Allen.   .

He's clearly not Allen's favorite target.  I see Beasley doing better.  

 

You see Jones making the team over Foster?  

 

interesting take.  Curious the logic there.  

 

I see with Beasley on board Jones not getting many reps.  Same role except that Beasley actually catches the balls thrown contrasted with Jones who ranks near the bottom, AHEM, alongside John Brown, for horrific catch %.  

 

Methinks that they had better draft at least two WRs in rounds 3 & 4.  I'd say 1/2 but we need OL-men so badly first.  

 

Agreed and just to point out, SouthNYfan is not the one who said Foster was on the bubble, he was mocking that notion.  It was Over 29 years of fanhood that said that.  

 

Another thing that is a false positive on Jones was his week 16 game where he was atrocious.  The stat box got saved with a 31 yard TD on a broken play gimme with 1 minute left in the game down 3 scores.  Prior to that he was at 4 catches for 36 yards and was utterly dominated physically the whole game the NE corners.  Was one of his worst games of the year, but people keep counting it as a "good" game because of a worthless free gimme TD when the game was over.  

 

Weeks 14, 15 and 16 were some of the worst play of Zays career.  Meanwhile Foster was having a strong stretch of games with Allen over the back part of the season.  

[SouthNYfan]

1 hour ago, TaskersGhost said:

Also, one of Jones' two best and only noteworthy games was against the Jets with Barkley throwing.  The other was that emotionally-charged Fins game to end the season where the entire team was playing on all cylinders against an apathetic Miami team.  

 

Jones averaged 5.25 catches for 48 yards in four games w/o Allen, which included games featuring one game with Barkley, two with Anderson, and one with Peterman.  

 

He averaged fewer than 3 catches for 38 yards with Allen.   .

He's clearly not Allen's favorite target.  I see Beasley doing better.  

 

You see Jones making the team over Foster?  

 

interesting take.  Curious the logic there.  

 

I see with Beasley on board Jones not getting many reps.  Same role except that Beasley actually catches the balls thrown contrasted with Jones who ranks near the bottom, AHEM, alongside John Brown, for horrific catch %.  

 

Methinks that they had better draft at least two WRs in rounds 3 & 4.  I'd say 1/2 but we need OL-men so badly first.  

 

I think you should reread my post, my dude.

I don't think either will be cut by day 1 (barring injury or a big rookie being drafted) but if I had to pick one, it's going to be Zay getting the axe.

I think the only 3 wrs that are a current lock are:

Beasley

Brown

Foster

 

The rest are fighting for a spot, with Zay being the favorite only due to his familiarity with the system.

 

29 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Agreed and just to point out, SouthNYfan is not the one who said Foster was on the bubble, he was mocking that notion.  It was Over 29 years of fanhood that said that.  

 

Another thing that is a false positive on Jones was his week 16 game where he was atrocious.  The stat box got saved with a 31 yard TD on a broken play gimme with 1 minute left in the game down 3 scores.  Prior to that he was at 4 catches for 36 yards and was utterly dominated physically the whole game the NE corners.  Was one of his worst games of the year, but people keep counting it as a "good" game because of a worthless free gimme TD when the game was over.  

 

Weeks 14, 15 and 16 were some of the worst play of Zays career.  Meanwhile Foster was having a strong stretch of games with Allen over the back part of the season.  

 

Thanks dude.

[Ronin]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Agreed and just to point out, SouthNYfan is not the one who said Foster was on the bubble, he was mocking that notion.  It was Over 29 years of fanhood that said that.  

 

Another thing that is a false positive on Jones was his week 16 game where he was atrocious.  The stat box got saved with a 31 yard TD on a broken play gimme with 1 minute left in the game down 3 scores.  Prior to that he was at 4 catches for 36 yards and was utterly dominated physically the whole game the NE corners.  Was one of his worst games of the year, but people keep counting it as a "good" game because of a worthless free gimme TD when the game was over.  

 

Weeks 14, 15 and 16 were some of the worst play of Zays career.  Meanwhile Foster was having a strong stretch of games with Allen over the back part of the season.  

 

Fully agree that Jones is a garbage-time master, on both ends, routing and playing-from-behind.  He was like that at EC too.  He's far from being a clutch/impact player.  

 

As to Foster, his biggest plays as well were on broken coverages.  One I just mentioned, forget the game, but his 75-yarder, was on a misread by the FS as he went uncovered on the early part of the route. 

 

I'm not sold that Foster is bad, but he definitely needs to show that he can catch regularly in coverage/man-to-man.  Here's the thing re: Foster, like everyone else, he posted three of his four big games w/ Allen out, featuring Barkley in one, Peterman in another, and Anderson in the other two, not even any continuity.  

 

Still, in those four games he posted 13 catches for 330 yards for an average of 3 catches for 82 yards. 

 

Under Allen he had 14 catches for 211 yards for an average of about 1 catch for fewer than 20 yards/game.  

 

Everyone just looks at the bottom-line stats and discounts the how or why they're there.  Remember, Allen, other than his two games vs. Miami, averaged a pathetic 162 yards/game otherwise.  I don't care how you spread out 162 yards and one TD every other game, major-league improvement has to be made in Allen's game and it's his short-medium game that are going to have to fill in the gaps, not more deep stuff.  

 

Either way, when the team averages 215 yards and posts its two best passing games of the season featuring four different QBs, none of which have played regularly or recently besides Peterman, but under Allen it averages over 40 yards-per-game less, then I would think that that's an issue that can't be as easily overstepped as most are doing here.  

[John from Riverside]

14 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

27 catches in 13 GP.... WOW

 

Marquise Goodwin had three 100 yd games one year too. 

 

Zay is ahead of Foster on the depth chart. Zay is one of the players getting snaps ahead of him

 

Brown signing put foster on the bubble. 

 

not sure how else to explain this.

 

 

You are out of your damn mind

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

20 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Brown and Beasley are locks because of their signings. 

 

Brown > Foster who is not a lock if he can’t do things other than run fast 

 

Zay is an NFL WR. Duke is a CFL WR, absolutely not a lock. He hasn’t proven a thing in the league. 

 

Zay is still the most versatile WR on the Bills. 

 

Roberts May be a lock, depending on how good the rest of his game is (ST defending and WR) 

 

to me cerainty of being on the roster follows this sequence 1 being most likely, last being least:

 

Likely: 

1. Cole

2. Brown 

3. Zay

4. Roberts 

5. Foster 

 

Outside looking In:

Isaiah / Duke / Scott / Ray ray / v Boldin / Phillips 

 

 

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So to be clear, you’re pinning those there to show that you’re claiming FOSTER won’t make the team right?

 

Arguing without even remembering the foundation of the argument Beta dog? .... ?‍♂️ 

 

 

 

 

[SouthNYfan]

6 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Fully agree that Jones is a garbage-time master, on both ends, routing and playing-from-behind.  He was like that at EC too.  He's far from being a clutch/impact player.  

 

As to Foster, his biggest plays as well were on broken coverages.  One I just mentioned, forget the game, but his 75-yarder, was on a misread by the FS as he went uncovered on the early part of the route. 

 

I'm not sold that Foster is bad, but he definitely needs to show that he can catch regularly in coverage/man-to-man.  Here's the thing re: Foster, like everyone else, he posted three of his four big games w/ Allen out, featuring Barkley in one, Peterman in another, and Anderson in the other two, not even any continuity.  

 

Still, in those four games he posted 13 catches for 330 yards for an average of 3 catches for 82 yards. 

 

Under Allen he had 14 catches for 211 yards for an average of about 1 catch for fewer than 20 yards/game.  

 

Everyone just looks at the bottom-line stats and discounts the how or why they're there.  Remember, Allen, other than his two games vs. Miami, averaged a pathetic 162 yards/game otherwise.  I don't care how you spread out 162 yards and one TD every other game, major-league improvement has to be made in Allen's game and it's his short-medium game that are going to have to fill in the gaps, not more deep stuff.  

 

Either way, when the team averages 215 yards and posts its two best passing games of the season featuring four different QBs, none of which have played regularly or recently besides Peterman, but under Allen it averages over 40 yards-per-game less, then I would think that that's an issue that can't be as easily overstepped as most are doing here.  

 

Broken coverages happen all the time.

You're acting like we shouldn't count Foster's statistics on plays that the defense broke down 

Come on dude.

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

You are out of your damn mind

 

John.

We agree.

The world is coming to an end ?

1 minute ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

 

Arguing without even remembering the foundation of the argument Beta dog? .... ?‍♂️ 

 

 

 

 

 

Bro.

You said Zay is above Foster and has a better chance of making the team.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

4 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

You are out of your damn mind

 

That may or may not be true, but either way somehow overnight a guy with 27 catches became Jerry Rice... 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[John from Riverside]

All I know is this.....

 

1st half of season Foster was crap......but 2nd half season Foster was literally a borderline pro bowl player

 

He has size....speed.....and a QB that can get him the ball...he goin NOWHERE

1 minute ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

That may or may not be true, but either way somehow overnight a guy with 27 catches became Jerry Rice... 

 

 

You really need to look deeper then that on this player

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

14 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Fully agree that Jones is a garbage-time master, on both ends, routing and playing-from-behind.  He was like that at EC too.  He's far from being a clutch/impact player.  

 

As to Foster, his biggest plays as well were on broken coverages.  One I just mentioned, forget the game, but his 75-yarder, was on a misread by the FS as he went uncovered on the early part of the route. 

 

I'm not sold that Foster is bad, but he definitely needs to show that he can catch regularly in coverage/man-to-man.  Here's the thing re: Foster, like everyone else, he posted three of his four big games w/ Allen out, featuring Barkley in one, Peterman in another, and Anderson in the other two, not even any continuity.  

 

Still, in those four games he posted 13 catches for 330 yards for an average of 3 catches for 82 yards. 

 

Under Allen he had 14 catches for 211 yards for an average of about 1 catch for fewer than 20 yards/game.  

 

Everyone just looks at the bottom-line stats and discounts the how or why they're there.  Remember, Allen, other than his two games vs. Miami, averaged a pathetic 162 yards/game otherwise.  I don't care how you spread out 162 yards and one TD every other game, major-league improvement has to be made in Allen's game and it's his short-medium game that are going to have to fill in the gaps, not more deep stuff.  

 

Either way, when the team averages 215 yards and posts its two best passing games of the season featuring four different QBs, none of which have played regularly or recently besides Peterman, but under Allen it averages over 40 yards-per-game less, then I would think that that's an issue that can't be as easily overstepped as most are doing here.  

 

Nicely done- you must actually watch the games and understand what you see. Refrshing in this thread. 

7 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

All I know is this.....

 

1st half of season Foster was crap......but 2nd half season Foster was literally a borderline pro bowl player

 

He has size....speed.....and a QB that can get him the ball...he goin NOWHERE

You really need to look deeper then that on this player

 

Ok let’s review his college performance. Go ahead I’ll wait... 

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Nicely done- you must actually watch the games and understand what you see. Refrshing in this thread. 

 

Ok let’s review his college performance. Go ahead I’ll wait... 

Please explain how college performance has ANYTHING to do with the NFL

[Ronin]

21 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I think you should reread my post, my dude.

I don't think either will be cut by day 1 (barring injury or a big rookie being drafted) but if I had to pick one, it's going to be Zay getting the axe.

I think the only 3 wrs that are a current lock are:

Beasley

Brown

Foster

 

The rest are fighting for a spot, with Zay being the favorite only due to his familiarity with the system.

 

Easy there chief, that's why I was asking. 

 

Agree with you on Jones, in fact, I don't think he survives the season here and if we draft a WR(s) in rounds 1-5, I'm guessing he has to fight for a roster spot.  Beasley's presence has made him expendable to the extent that he had any value otherwise.  

 

As I've pointed out, he didn't do well with Allen under center when he averaged fewer than 3 catches for fewer than 40 yards-per-game and below 50% catch%.  That doesn't bode well.  

 

Agree on the WRs with a lock.  Having said that, I'm not sold that any will outdo their season averages under a QB that averaged a mere 170 or so passing yards-per-game last season.  Unless of course there's a massive uptick in those numbers.  

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Easy there chief, that's why I was asking. 

 

Agree with you on Jones, in fact, I don't think he survives the season here and if we draft a WR(s) in rounds 1-5, I'm guessing he has to fight for a roster spot.  Beasley's presence has made him expendable to the extent that he had any value otherwise.  

 

As I've pointed out, he didn't do well with Allen under center when he averaged fewer than 3 catches for fewer than 40 yards-per-game and below 50% catch%.  That doesn't bode well.  

 

Agree on the WRs with a lock.  Having said that, I'm not sold that any will outdo their season averages under a QB that averaged a mere 170 or so passing yards-per-game last season.  Unless of course there's a massive uptick in those numbers.  

Unless of course you know raw rookie QB actually continues to develop

 

It has happened before....and frankly what the bills were counting on soooooo

[Ronin]

47 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

Broken coverages happen all the time.

You're acting like we shouldn't count Foster's statistics on plays that the defense broke down 

Come on dude.

 

Context. 

 

They do, but when a player's few biggest plays are on them it's not proof that that player, in this case a WR, can routinely put up those numbers w/o having broken coverages.  

 

Anyone can run downfield, have a coverage break down, make a catch for a TD.  It's altogether a different ballgame, pun intended, to do so man-to-man while actually outplaying the defender.  

 

Quite simple.  

39 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Nicely done- you must actually watch the games and understand what you see. Refrshing in this thread. 

 

I'm finding a few of the comments refreshing today, yours included.  They're still surrounded by the typical emotionally-led tripe, nonetheless.   

 

Also, good stat splits also lay some of this out factually as well, so there's that too.  

[Ronin]

17 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Unless of course you know raw rookie QB actually continues to develop

 

It has happened before....and frankly what the bills were counting on soooooo

 

So because it's happened before means that it's a shoe-in here?  

 

Apparently that's your point.  OK, if you think that's a wise take.  

 

Fair enough otherwise, but no matter how one looks at it, he still has miles to go to become an even average passer.  Even taking just his last 6 games he averaged 51.9% compl., lower than his first 6 games, a mere 207 yards/game passing, and with the exception of that last Miami games still sucked in the Red Zone.  

 

I can see it happening but it's hardly a shoe-in that you seem to be insisting that it is.  The leap that he has to make to hit franchise status as a passer is astronomical by NFL standards.  The odds are not favorable, again, not to say that it's impossible, but he would be in record-breaking territory if he does it based upon last season's measurables.  

 

That's regarding Allen.  As I've laid out, Jones played much better under Anderson, Barkley, and Peterman for four games.  Hardly Brees, Brady, and Rodgers there.  

Edited March 28, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

So because it's happened before means that it's a shoe-in here?  

 

Apparently that's your point.  OK, if you think that's a wise take.  

 

Fair enough otherwise, but no matter how one looks at it, he still has miles to go to become an even average passer.  Even taking just his last 6 games he averaged 51.9% compl., lower than his first 6 games, a mere 207 yards/game passing, and with the exception of that last Miami games still sucked in the Red Zone.  

 

I can see it happening but it's hardly a shoe-in that you seem to be insisting that it is.  The leap that he has to make to hit franchise status as a passer is astronomical by NFL standards.  The odds are not favorable, again, not to say that it's impossible, but he would be in record-breaking territory if he does it based upon last season's measurables.  

 

That's regarding Allen.  As I've laid out, Jones played much better under Anderson, Barkley, and Peterman for four games.  Hardly Brees, Brady, and Rodgers there.  

My point is.....Allen was drafted based off the potential of what he could become.....and frankly was better in year 1 then I expected him to be (after he came back from injury)

 

Rookie first year QBs tend to struggle....and Allen had his share.   Rookie 1st year QBs also tend to get better when they have incredible raw talent and a team willing to vest in their future.

 

No running game.......lots of scrambling out of trouble...... a FIVE MINUTE VIDEO of WR's dropping balls they should be catching.......do I really need to go on here?

 

The answer is no....I am not going to auto expect failure.....not when the team is obviously looking to invest in the talent around him.

[SouthNYfan]

19 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Context. 

 

They do, but when a player's few biggest plays are on them it's not proof that that player, in this case a WR, can routinely put up those numbers w/o having broken coverages.  

 

Anyone can run downfield, have a coverage break down, make a catch for a TD.  It's altogether a different ballgame, pun intended, to do so man-to-man while actually outplaying the defender.  

 

Quite simple.  

 

I'm finding a few of the comments refreshing today, yours included.  They're still surrounded by the typical emotionally-led tripe, nonetheless.   

 

Also, good stat splits also lay some of this out factually as well, so there's that too.  

 

I don't disagree with a whole with your thought process, but I think diminishing Foster into "his stats were because the defense messed up" is a bit simplified

 

We can agree that he's at least shown enough to warrant him being on the roster this year, and that he goes into the season clearly locked ahead of Zay and behind brown and Beasley

[DuckyBoys]

if the Bills can get anything for Jones he'll be gone  Think its time to admit he was not worth a  early 2nd round pick and move on.  To be honest I re read his scouting report and the Bills must have greatly over valued his college production and pedigree

[3rdand12]

3 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

if the Bills can get anything for Jones he'll be gone  Think its time to admit he was not worth a  early 2nd round pick and move on.  To be honest I re read his scouting report and the Bills must have greatly over valued his college production and pedigree

oversold by the WR coach we picked up and is now gone perhaps ??

 : )

[DuckyBoys]

2 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

oversold by the WR coach we picked up and is now gone perhaps ??

 : )

Think he sticks as a depth player for 2019 if they dont draft a wr early or trade for a wr.  Beane mentioned liking having extra cap space to handle being able to trade for a bigger salaried player.  We could still see a trade for a true #1 WR or edge rusher before or maybe during the draft.  He isnt hot garbage just not a nfl starter and certainly not worth where he was selected.

[Ronin]

16 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

My point is.....Allen was drafted based off the potential of what he could become.....and frankly was better in year 1 then I expected him to be (after he came back from injury)

 

Rookie first year QBs tend to struggle....and Allen had his share.   Rookie 1st year QBs also tend to get better when they have incredible raw talent and a team willing to vest in their future.

 

No running game.......lots of scrambling out of trouble...... a FIVE MINUTE VIDEO of WR's dropping balls they should be catching.......do I really need to go on here?

 

The answer is no....I am not going to auto expect failure.....not when the team is obviously looking to invest in the talent around him.

 

The question wasn't whether you "auto expect failure.  As I said, you seem to hound me insisting that Allen's a shoe-in for franchise status. 

 

I've never, ever, anywhere said that Allen's a definitive bust.  All I've said, most of which seems to be ignored by posters such as yourself, and I said it again above, is that the odds are not in his favor as  no QB prospect in modern NFL history has gone from the depths of where he is and has been, any and all excuses aside, to franchise status.  

 

If you disagree, same challenge to you as to anyone, find the exception.  

 

All we hear is about his deep-arm and how we need more "deep WRs" for him, which merely feeds the problem.  The problem isn't his ability to heave the ball deep.  But this notion that teams' records are even remotely hinged upon the deep ball is ridiculous.  

 

How often does it have to be stated, franchise QBs ALL have one thing in common, a superb short-medium game, which includes the Red Zone where A, no deep game exists, and B, where Allen was horrid last season, as in bottom-dwelling horrid.  

 

It's nice that you seem to think that the odds of him overcoming that are better than the odds of it not happening, and again, perhaps he will, I don't have a crystal ball, apparently you seem to however, but the reality is that it's a longshot at best.  

 

Sure, as with you, I hope to high heavens that he does.  It'd be a dam refreshing change of pace for us, I'm simply not nearly as confident as everyone else is.  

 

It gets old having to listen to people insist that for whatever reason, players when they get here are all of a sudden outperform their career averages, like John Brown, or how we can expect them to repeat or improve upon their career bests simply because we sign them.  Gore, at 36 is a good example.  Everyone ignores the fact that he's been among the worst YPC RBs in teh league on average over the past four years while deferring to his singular stats from last season on a team where two other RBs posted even better YPC averages on a team with no pass-pro OL and nothing but a good running OL.  

 

Again, as one mere example among many.  

 

Also, people post carefully selected stats to start a thread and make a point and simply don't wnat to hear any other readily available data that's far more relevant to the very topic that they started.  That's not much of a discussion forum, what they're looking for is to make a post and six pages of back-slapping in agreement.  Why, beats me.  I much prefer to deal with reality, not pie-in-the-sky nonsense.  

 

Excuses and exceptions can always be floated.  Narratives do not overcome reality.  And I'll give you a really good example. 

 

Last season we had the #2 ranked D, right?  

 

According to what?  Yardage D.  

 

People ignore our 18th ranked scoring D or our 30th ranked Red Zone D, much less even begin to reconcile why the gap as such, similar to the season prior.  

 

Was there any mitigating circumstance?  Well, if people look into it they'll see that our oppoinents had the best starting field position on average of any team in the league.  That certainly explains some of it.  Yet I don't think anyone here would even consider that.  Nope. All they know is that we had the #2 D and they'll be shocked when we don't this season.  

 

It is what it is.   It ain't what it ain't.  

Edited March 28, 2019 by TaskersGhost