Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[Seoulofstone]

On 5/11/2019 at 7:24 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Ummm... okay.... relevance?

 

 it’s relevant to Josh Allen because this is the same QB guru (Jordan Palmer) who has been working with both Allen’s and Darnold at their camp and for that matter Tyree Jackson too. Unlike Darnold and JAllen, KAllen attended panthers rookie camp and his accuracy was noticeably improved. It is my hope that we see the same improvement from Josh. 

 Perhaps it’s a tenuous link but news is slow in the off-season and I thought it might be of interest.

[Bruce Harper]

I'm a Darnold guy but I respect the work you put into this.

[Boca BIlls]

All that matters now is how they do this year. These past stats are now moot since so much has changed.

[Socal-805]

3 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

All that matters now is how they do this year. These past stats are now moot since so much has changed.

 

 

Unless.....  He continues to be terribly inaccurate, then they do matter.

 

: )

 

[Foxx]

3 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Unless.....  He continues to be terribly inaccurate, then they do matter.

 

: )

 

great! then we can look forward to another long and ill conceived thread analysis by none other than transplant.

Edited May 19, 2019 by Foxx

[Nextmanup]

On 3/23/2019 at 6:10 PM, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Yeah I said before I don't think JA's terribly accurate but I don't really care so much as long as he's on the money when necessary. 

 

I think we all saw a ton of talent in JA to be excited. So provided he gets Ws we shouldn't be overly concerned over accuracy anyways. He's got enough things going for him and, of course, he's accurate enough.. people talk about him like he's Tim Tebow if he was that inaccurate it would have seriously limited his play last year.

 

I'm fine with Cam Newton abilities and psyched if better.

You're basically saying you don't care that Allen is inaccurate, as long as he can somehow magically transform into an accurate passer when it matters most in a game.  It doesn't work that way.

 

Of course Allen has a ton of athleticism and did some impressive things on a football field, mostly with his legs.

 

I'll give you 2 guys he reminds me a lot of:  Tim Tebow and Collin Kaepernick.  Did anyone ever accuse either of those guys of NOT being tremendous athletes?  And while we are on that topic ever notice that Tom Brady does NOT appear to be a tremendous, natural athlete?  

 

It ain't just about athleticism, brother!

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, Nextmanup said:

 

 

I'll give you 2 guys he reminds me a lot of:  Tim Tebow and Collin Kaepernick.  

 

 

Kaepernick had a decent run in the NFL. The Tebow comparison is WAY off. Allen has a huge arm and Tebow's was Peterman level bad. 

[transplantbillsfan]

https://theathletic.com/981080/2019/05/17/how-much-better-can-josh-allen-and-the-bills-offense-be-an-analytical-breakdown-heading-into-2019/

How much better can Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense be? An analytical breakdown heading into 2019

By Matthew Fairburn May 17, 2019

Aggressiveness

NFL Next Gen Stats tracks aggressiveness as the percentage of throws a quarterback attempts when a receiver has one yard or less of separation from the defender at the time of the completion or incompletion. This is a way to measure how often a quarterback is throwing into tight coverage. Allen finished at 13.8 percent in this category, though the number alone doesn’t correlate to a quarterback’s success. Allen’s percentage was within a decimal point of those of Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. Josh Rosen was the most aggressive quarterback in the league last year, and his rookie season was a disaster. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes ranked near the bottom of the league in this metric because his receivers were constantly running open.

What this metric does tell us, though, is that Allen, despite having a sub-par group of receivers, wasn’t often throwing into tight coverage. Did he not trust his receivers to make plays on contested catches? Did he not trust what he was seeing? It could be a combination of the two. It would be understandable if Allen was less than confident in the receivers the Bills had. They also went through quite a few receiver combinations throughout the season, and without ideal timing, these tight-window throws aren’t as easy to make. Allen noted that after the team’s Week 16 loss to the Patriots.

 

“It’s all about timing, trust and the relationship that you have with the guys out there,” Allen said. “We’re still relatively new with each other. To go through and play games like that and have opportunities that were so close but slip away, it definitely gives us confidence as we move forward. We’ll work on them and clean those things up, and in no time we’ll be completing those — having trust on depth, on timing in my drop and expecting guys to be where they are and they’re going to be there.”

 

Now that the Bills will have three new receivers, Allen will once again have to establish timing with them. The difference is that he will spend the entire offseason working with the first-team offense and the receiver room shouldn’t have as much turnover as it did a year ago.

6 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

All that matters now is how they do this year. These past stats are now moot since so much has changed.

 

What matters about this for now at least is that the narrative that Allen needs some kind of Herculean improvement from his 1st to 2nd year in terms of passing accuracy compared to his peers is incorrect.

 

Completion percentage, yes.

 

Accuracy, no.

[Warcodered]

26 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://theathletic.com/981080/2019/05/17/how-much-better-can-josh-allen-and-the-bills-offense-be-an-analytical-breakdown-heading-into-2019/

How much better can Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense be? An analytical breakdown heading into 2019

By Matthew Fairburn May 17, 2019

 

I wonder how many of those tight window throws came from the Chargers, Packers, and Patriots games.

Edited May 19, 2019 by Warcodered

[Socal-805]

 

 

Last game of the season:  STATS looked pretty good actually.  Now look at the passes.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/pass/buffalo-bills/2018/week/josh-allen/ALL529264/2018/17/pass

 

o  10 of his completions were behind the LOS or with 5 yards of the LOS.

 

 

[wiley16350]

I have now finished Josh Allen's first 6 games for my study of incomplete passes.  He is in the top 5 (I want to say 2nd or 3rd) for best responsibility percentage.  I have him responsible for 37% of his incomplete passes.  The percentage takes into account, accuracy, decision making and pressure and assigns blame to every incomplete pass in whole or in part.  What the rankings in this category say to me is that the guys higher on the list (like Allen) are sabotaged or hurt more by the talent around them then guys lower on the list.  It doesn't necessarily suggest that Allen is more accurate than the guys lower than him.  I only have Allen down for 9 passes (6% of his attempts) that were incomplete solely because of accuracy issues.  Some other passes could be inaccurate to a degree but went down as something else, such as a defended pass or a catchable pass that wasn't perfect.  I have seen a lot more poor throws from Tom Brady, than I have from Allen.  Now, Brady throws it more often so that means he will have more poor throws but when i'm just watching incomplete passes all of the time, it feels like Brady is a more inaccurate QB than Allen.  Brady's responsibility % is in the high 40's or low 50's, I can't remember off the top of my head.  Maybe after I finish week 6 for all QB's, I will post my chart again so you all can see how Allen fared prior to his injury.  Allen is definitely not as inaccurate as his 54% rate (at that point in the season) would suggest.  Guys like DeShaun Watson seem to be much more inaccurate to me and I just looked up his completion % and was kind of shocked to see it was at 68%.  I know I have Watson with over 20 uncatchable passes which makes his uncatchable passes % at least 9%, which is 3% worse than Allen.  If you think completion % is a true indicator of accuracy, then you are really doing yourself a disservice by spouting off what is a clearly ignorant of reality argument.

[oldmanfan]

12 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

I have now finished Josh Allen's first 6 games for my study of incomplete passes.  He is in the top 5 (I want to say 2nd or 3rd) for best responsibility percentage.  I have him responsible for 37% of his incomplete passes.  The percentage takes into account, accuracy, decision making and pressure and assigns blame to every incomplete pass in whole or in part.  What the rankings in this category say to me is that the guys higher on the list (like Allen) are sabotaged or hurt more by the talent around them then guys lower on the list.  It doesn't necessarily suggest that Allen is more accurate than the guys lower than him.  I only have Allen down for 9 passes (6% of his attempts) that were incomplete solely because of accuracy issues.  Some other passes could be inaccurate to a degree but went down as something else, such as a defended pass or a catchable pass that wasn't perfect.  I have seen a lot more poor throws from Tom Brady, than I have from Allen.  Now, Brady throws it more often so that means he will have more poor throws but when i'm just watching incomplete passes all of the time, it feels like Brady is a more inaccurate QB than Allen.  Brady's responsibility % is in the high 40's or low 50's, I can't remember off the top of my head.  Maybe after I finish week 6 for all QB's, I will post my chart again so you all can see how Allen fared prior to his injury.  Allen is definitely not as inaccurate as his 54% rate (at that point in the season) would suggest.  Guys like DeShaun Watson seem to be much more inaccurate to me and I just looked up his completion % and was kind of shocked to see it was at 68%.  I know I have Watson with over 20 uncatchable passes which makes his uncatchable passes % at least 9%, which is 3% worse than Allen.  If you think completion % is a true indicator of accuracy, then you are really doing yourself a disservice by spouting off what is a clearly ignorant of reality argument.

I agree, and thank you for the work you are doing.

[thebandit27]

16 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Last game of the season:  STATS looked pretty good actually.  Now look at the passes.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/pass/buffalo-bills/2018/week/josh-allen/ALL529264/2018/17/pass

 

o  10 of his completions were behind the LOS or with 5 yards of the LOS.

 

 

 

Explain how that's different from anything you see here:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/patrick-mahomes/MAH401939/season

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

I have now finished Josh Allen's first 6 games for my study of incomplete passes.  He is in the top 5 (I want to say 2nd or 3rd) for best responsibility percentage.  I have him responsible for 37% of his incomplete passes.  The percentage takes into account, accuracy, decision making and pressure and assigns blame to every incomplete pass in whole or in part.  What the rankings in this category say to me is that the guys higher on the list (like Allen) are sabotaged or hurt more by the talent around them then guys lower on the list.  It doesn't necessarily suggest that Allen is more accurate than the guys lower than him.  I only have Allen down for 9 passes (6% of his attempts) that were incomplete solely because of accuracy issues.  Some other passes could be inaccurate to a degree but went down as something else, such as a defended pass or a catchable pass that wasn't perfect.  I have seen a lot more poor throws from Tom Brady, than I have from Allen.  Now, Brady throws it more often so that means he will have more poor throws but when i'm just watching incomplete passes all of the time, it feels like Brady is a more inaccurate QB than Allen.  Brady's responsibility % is in the high 40's or low 50's, I can't remember off the top of my head.  Maybe after I finish week 6 for all QB's, I will post my chart again so you all can see how Allen fared prior to his injury.  Allen is definitely not as inaccurate as his 54% rate (at that point in the season) would suggest.  Guys like DeShaun Watson seem to be much more inaccurate to me and I just looked up his completion % and was kind of shocked to see it was at 68%.  I know I have Watson with over 20 uncatchable passes which makes his uncatchable passes % at least 9%, which is 3% worse than Allen.  If you think completion % is a true indicator of accuracy, then you are really doing yourself a disservice by spouting off what is a clearly ignorant of reality argument.

 

I want to say thank you for actually trying a similar exercise to see if my assessment of Allen lines up with other similar analyses.

 

There are a few Foxxy pals posting in this thread who just baselessly categorize the analysis as ill-conceived, among other things, when I genuinely wanted them to actually try it themselves and post their conclusions, like you are.

 

But I think some are just more comfortable with strident negativity and the general narrative that Allen is inaccurate.

Edited May 21, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[Bing Bong]

On 5/19/2019 at 12:36 PM, Nextmanup said:

You're basically saying you don't care that Allen is inaccurate, as long as he can somehow magically transform into an accurate passer when it matters most in a game.  It doesn't work that way.

 

Of course Allen has a ton of athleticism and did some impressive things on a football field, mostly with his legs.

 

I'll give you 2 guys he reminds me a lot of:  Tim Tebow and Collin Kaepernick.  Did anyone ever accuse either of those guys of NOT being tremendous athletes?  And while we are on that topic ever notice that Tom Brady does NOT appear to be a tremendous, natural athlete?  

 

It ain't just about athleticism, brother!

  

 

No I'm not saying that. I'm saying accuracy has diminishing returns. If Josh Allen is as inaccurate as Tim Tebow he won't cut it in this league. The difference in accuracy between Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers with a cannon isn't so bad as the difference between Tim Tebow and Cam Newton. Cam is accurate enough with complimentary skills to excel. And he's not Tim Tebow good lord, Tim couldn't hit the simplest routes throwing outs 4 yards out of bounds.

 

He's accurate enough to make big plays and has tons of other quarterback skills going for him to make him special in his own right. Brett Favre had a cannon, great instincts, and other attributes to make him much more successful than more accurate quarterbacks. 

 

As to Josh Allen not being able to magically transform into an accurate passer late in the game, sure he won't.. but he has late game intangibles and an arm to hit routes other quarterbacks can't. I don't care if he's relatively inaccurate to other quarterbacks in the league so long as he can throw a bullet to Foster when it counts. He can go incompletion, incompletion, incompletion, AMAZING TD on a game winning drive. 25% completion oh my! He didn't get magically accurate in that scenario but he's good enough to make the play and get the win. I don't care so long as accuracy isn't an Achilles hill for him. It doesn't limit him from using the hundreds of other quarterback traits that could make him great.

 

I hate talking about Josh Allen by this point, beating every topic to death. Very little has happened to change his NFL accomplishments since his last down, which was several months ago. I liked what I saw last year, and am excited and anxious to see him next year. I think he still is a lot like how he viewed him his rookie year, except he proved his floor is much higher than draft day and his exceptionally high ceiling remains the same.

[Dr. Who]

10 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

he proved his floor is much higher than draft day and his exceptionally high ceiling remains the same.

That's the key and I think your assessment is correct.

[Foxx]

17 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I want to say thank you for actually trying a similar exercise to see if my assessment of Allen lines up with other similar analyses.

 

There are a few Foxxy pals posting in this thread who just baselessly categorize the analysis as ill-conceived, among other things, when I genuinely wanted them to actually try it themselves and post their conclusions, like you are.

 

But I think some are just more comfortable with strident negativity and the general narrative that Allen is inaccurate.

lol. 

 

baselessly huh?

 

it is ill conceived because it doesn't matter, one iota.

 

the only thing and i repeat... the only thing that matters is the completion percentage, period. it is an accurate gauge of what a QB is doing.

 

explain it all away anyway you like... 

it.

doesn't.

matter.

 

who gives a ***** what anyone outside of Bills nation thinks? i like Allen a lot and think he is the best shot we have had at the QB position (as evidenced by my jersey purchase) since Kelly. that doesn't mean he is however.

 

believe it or not trans, i like you. i just know your track record and how horrible it has been at judging QBs. it is with that forethought that i can't help but be extremely skeptical of any analysis you dream up. you did the same for ... how many other Bills QBs that were not the answer?

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, Foxx said:

lol. 

 

baselessly huh?

 

it is ill conceived because it doesn't matter, one iota.

 

the only thing and i repeat... the only thing that matters is the completion percentage, period. it is an accurate gauge of what a QB is doing.

 

explain it all away anyway you like... 

it.

doesn't.

matter.

 

Completion percentage is what correlates most with team success, but because so many factors go into completion percentage separate from actual QB accuracy--QB & WR communication, WRs ability to catch, tips and batted passes, Throwaways and Spikes, QB decision making, etc--this actually does matter in terms of the conversation as to how to increase that completion percentage.

 

And I'd bet you anything Beane & Co. analyzed the tape for the purpose of having the very same conversation.

 

Notice how offense-heavy we went this offseason?

 

Start off by cutting our least reliable pass catcher over the year and then go out and get one proven speedster WR and another who was 4th in the league last year (pretty sure that's right) in catching balls on plays he was targeted.

 

Then you bolster the crap outta your OL so that you give your young QB time and Windows to make good decisions and throw the ball.

 

It matters in the grand scheme of our current year 1 to year 2 conversation because all any of us want to see is a successful Allen. 

 

The point, really, is that his distance from rookie QB to Franchise QB isn't greater than that distance is for the typical rookie QB as far as passing accuracy goes.

 

It matters in this grand offseason sports message board conversation we have. Of course, since you're here on this sports message board, I assume you believe this grand offseason sports message board conversation we have every year is meaningful.

 

And if you don't, why don't you go fishing in an actual body of water rather than on the Internet until the season starts?

 

5 hours ago, Foxx said:

 

who gives a ***** what anyone outside of Bills nation thinks? i like Allen a lot and think he is the best shot we have had at the QB position (as evidenced by my jersey purchase) since Kelly. that doesn't mean he is however.

 

believe it or not trans, i like you. i just know your track record and how horrible it has been at judging QBs. it is with that forethought that i can't help but be extremely skeptical of any analysis you dream up. you did the same for ... how many other Bills QBs that were not the answer?

 

And I like you. 

 

I get some right. I get some wrong.

 

I feel good about Allen.

 

If you need to calm your mind somehow, just remember that even broken clocks are right twice a day 

[thebandit27]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Completion percentage is what correlates most with team success

 

Just an FYI: 5 of the top 12 teams in regular-season team completion %age did not make the playoffs in 2018.

 

On the contrary, the passing stat that seems to matter most is YPA.  For contextual purposes, 9 of the top 13 teams in team YPA made the playoffs in 2018.

 

You could also make the argument that Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt has the highest correlation, since 10 of the top 13 teams in team ANYA made the playoffs in 2018.

 

In the end, what matters is this: can the QB make the throw he needs to make when he needs to make it? 

 

If we're attempting to address that question, then I think that there are a handful of examples that would support the idea that Allen can indeed make the critical throw, and slightly fewer examples that would support the idea that he can't.

[Gugny]

4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

In the end, what matters is this: can the QB make the throw he needs to make when he needs to make it? 

 

BINGO.  This is why Tyrod's stats were so deceiving.  Stats are nice and can be pretty (or not).  Situational stats are what matter most.

[C.Biscuit97]

4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Just an FYI: 5 of the top 12 teams in regular-season team completion %age did not make the playoffs in 2018.

 

On the contrary, the passing stat that seems to matter most is YPA.  For contextual purposes, 9 of the top 13 teams in team YPA made the playoffs in 2018.

 

You could also make the argument that Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt has the highest correlation, since 10 of the top 13 teams in team ANYA made the playoffs in 2018.

 

In the end, what matters is this: can the QB make the throw he needs to make when he needs to make it? 

 

If we're attempting to address that question, then I think that there are a handful of examples that would support the idea that Allen can indeed make the critical throw, and slightly fewer examples that would support the idea that he can't.

Interesting.  Just a couple things:

 

1) none under 60% made it.  I would like to know in recent years how many under 60% have made the playoffs.

 

2) Allen was 2nd last in ypa and AYPA.  So obviously there’s work to be down. 

 

But you cant be captain checkdown but you also have to be over 60%.  It really does matter.  

34 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

BINGO.  This is why Tyrod's stats were so deceiving.  Stats are nice and can be pretty (or not).  Situational stats are what matter most.

Tyrod won’t lose you games but he won’t win them for you either.  It’s basically the Alex Smith probably.  You can do a lot worse but you are limited with Smith and Taylor. 

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting.  Just a couple things:

 

1) none under 60% made it.  I would like to know in recent years how many under 60% have made the playoffs.

 

 

Would you like to know? Because that's not a difficult thing to look up

 

I know that both Bortles and Wentz were at 60.2% in 2017, and both went to conference championship games.

 

I also know that Cam Newton was NFL MVP and took the Panthers to the Super Bowl in 2015 while completing 59.8% of his passes. His team lost in the Super Bowl to the Broncos and Peyton Manning, who completed 59.8% of his passes that year.

 

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

2) Allen was 2nd last in ypa and AYPA.  So obviously there’s work to be down. 

 

But you cant be captain checkdown but you also have to be over 60%.  It really does matter.  

 

 

The actual percentage doesn't matter at all.  Points are not awarded for completion percentage. Scoring TDs and ending the game with more points than your opponent matters.

 

Again, the key factor isn't whether or not Allen completes a certain percentage of passes. It's whether or not he can make the throw he needs to make, when he needs to make it. Tom Brady won 2 of his first 3 Super Bowls completing less than 61% of his passes.

 

Joe Flacco won the Super Bowl in a season where he completed 59.7% of his passes.

 

The point here is that there's no benchmark that a QB has to hit in order to be officially able to win games. I'm pretty sure that fans would be elated if the team went 11-5 and Allen completed only 54% of his passes (sort of like Andrew Luck as a rookie).

[Big Gun]

29 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting.  Just a couple things:

 

1) none under 60% made it.  I would like to know in recent years how many under 60% have made the playoffs.

 

2) Allen was 2nd last in ypa and AYPA.  So obviously there’s work to be down. 

 

But you cant be captain checkdown but you also have to be over 60%.  It really does matter.  

Tyrod won’t lose you games but he won’t win them for you either.  It’s basically the Alex Smith probably.  You can do a lot worse but you are limited with Smith and Taylor. 

Yes, yes he did absolutely lose games with his refusal to throw the ball. This, Tyrod won't lose you games is bunk! Refusing to throw the ball and score points has a negative outcome on games and therefor games were lost as a result. Tyrod lost games other QBs would have won, so yes he did lose games. 

[Nextmanup]

5 minutes ago, pop gun said:

Yes, yes he did absolutely lose games with his refusal to throw the ball. This, Tyrod won't lose you games is bunk! Refusing to throw the ball and score points has a negative outcome on games and therefor games were lost as a result. Tyrod lost games other QBs would have won, so yes he did lose games. 

Tyrod's number one deficiency was his utter refusal to throw the football! 

 

It's also directly linked to his ridiculous ability to not turn the ball over.  His style of game was so conservative of course it lent itself to low turnovers.

 

1 game we can all remember in which Tyrod straight up "lost us the game" is the playoff game against Jacksonville.

 

That game was extremely winnable and Blake Bortles' performance was freaking atrocious.  

 

And yet Tyrod could not move the ball or put points on the board to save his ass.

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Would you like to know? Because that's not a difficult thing to look up

 

I know that both Bortles and Wentz were at 60.2% in 2017, and both went to conference championship games.

 

I also know that Cam Newton was NFL MVP and took the Panthers to the Super Bowl in 2015 while completing 59.8% of his passes. His team lost in the Super Bowl to the Broncos and Peyton Manning, who completed 59.8% of his passes that year.

 

 

The actual percentage doesn't matter at all.  Points are not awarded for completion percentage. Scoring TDs and ending the game with more points than your opponent matters.

 

Again, the key factor isn't whether or not Allen completes a certain percentage of passes. It's whether or not he can make the throw he needs to make, when he needs to make it. Tom Brady won 2 of his first 3 Super Bowls completing less than 61% of his passes.

 

Joe Flacco won the Super Bowl in a season where he completed 59.7% of his passes.

 

The point here is that there's no benchmark that a QB has to hit in order to be officially able to win games. I'm pretty sure that fans would be elated if the team went 11-5 and Allen completed only 54% of his passes (sort of like Andrew Luck as a rookie).

1) I was at work and hoping someone can do the work for me

 

2). Does anyone think Flacco  was  reason the Ravens won the Sb?

 

3) touché on that Luck season.  Didn’t realize he was so low.  He also threw 300 more passes than Allen that year and averaged more than 100 more yards passing.  But point taken.

 

but the overwhelming data, in today’s nfl, you aren’t making the playoffs with a sub 60% passer unless you have an elite defense.

3 hours ago, pop gun said:

Yes, yes he did absolutely lose games with his refusal to throw the ball. This, Tyrod won't lose you games is bunk! Refusing to throw the ball and score points has a negative outcome on games and therefor games were lost as a result. Tyrod lost games other QBs would have won, so yes he did lose games. 

My point was more that he won’t single handedly lose a game like Nate Peterman.  Peterman murdered the Bills.  

 

Trust me, I wasn’t the biggest Tyrod fan but he has a winning record as a starter.  Like Fitz could light up a team and win a game with his arm.  He also could threw 4 ints.  Tyrod, for better or worse, wasn’t going to be the sole reason you lose. 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Tyrod's number one deficiency was his utter refusal to throw the football! 

 

It's also directly linked to his ridiculous ability to not turn the ball over.  His style of game was so conservative of course it lent itself to low turnovers.

 

1 game we can all remember in which Tyrod straight up "lost us the game" is the playoff game against Jacksonville.

 

That game was extremely winnable and Blake Bortles' performance was freaking atrocious.  

 

And yet Tyrod could not move the ball or put points on the board to save his ass.

 

 

Yet somehow, we had a worse passing offense this year than any season with TT. So yeah, plenty of other QBs could have lose to the Jags that day. 

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting.  Just a couple things:

 

1) none under 60% made it.  I would like to know in recent years how many under 60% have made the playoffs.

 

2) Allen was 2nd last in ypa and AYPA.  So obviously there’s work to be down. 

 

But you cant be captain checkdown but you also have to be over 60%.  It really does matter.  

 

Yeah, I don't think we ever have to worry about Allen being Captain Checkdown.

 

The guy threw the ball like a yard farther on average more than any other QB in the NFL.

 

And with Allen's style of play, he can hover in the 58%-60% completion percentage range and still be very successful.

 

Not saying I want that or am even predicting that, but Cam Newton won an MVP at less than 60%.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yeah, I don't think we ever have to worry about Allen being Captain Checkdown.

 

The guy threw the ball like a yard farther on average more than any other QB in the NFL.

 

And with Allen's style of play, he can hover in the 58%-60% completion percentage range and still be very successful.

 

Not saying I want that or am even predicting that, but Cam Newton won an MVP at less than 60%.

 

I mean I think you did predict him to be an MVP candidate in 2019 in another thread....

 

Cam's MVP year he was 59.8% and 99.4 Passer rating. So he was productive when he did complete balls. You can certainly be successful on those sorts of numbers - though I'm not sure if that is a basis for winning consistently. Cam himself is a bit up and down year to year on completion % and on passer rating. But you'd take Cam's first 8 years for Josh in all likelihood. 4 playoff years, a Superbowl appearance... I think most of us would probably sign for that.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

10 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) I was at work and hoping someone can do the work for me

 

2). Does anyone think Flacco  was  reason the Ravens won the Sb?

 

3) touché on that Luck season.  Didn’t realize he was so low.  He also threw 300 more passes than Allen that year and averaged more than 100 more yards passing.  But point taken.

 

but the overwhelming data, in today’s nfl, you aren’t making the playoffs with a sub 60% passer unless you have an elite defense.

 

Reads statistics. Defies results of said statistics because narrative.

[Gugny]

17 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting.  Just a couple things:

 

1) none under 60% made it.  I would like to know in recent years how many under 60% have made the playoffs.

 

2) Allen was 2nd last in ypa and AYPA.  So obviously there’s work to be down. 

 

But you cant be captain checkdown but you also have to be over 60%.  It really does matter.  

Tyrod won’t lose you games but he won’t win them for you either.  It’s basically the Alex Smith probably.  You can do a lot worse but you are limited with Smith and Taylor. 

 

Comparing Tyrod Taylor to Alex Smith is silly.  And you really can't do a lot worse than Tyrod Taylor.

 

If the only passes a QB throws are no more than 3 yards in the air, I think it's fair to say that said QB's completion percentage would be higher than another QB who throws the ball downfield more.  A bunch of 5 yard completions on 3rd and 11 don't do crap.  But they'll make completion % stats pretty.

 

You keep comparing last year's offense, led by a rookie with very little talent around him - to the offenses of the three prior years.  It's not a fair comparison for a multitude of reasons.

 

Completion % is a silly stat to latch onto.  Ask Eli Manning what having his best completion % season of his career last season did for the offense and for him.

[wiley16350]

Well I have finished week 6 of my study on incomplete passes.  I would attach the chart but for some reason that option is not available.  I will have to write them down I guess,  I'm just going to include the QB name and his responsibility %.  This reflects which QB's were hurt most by the players around them in terms of throwing incomplete passes.

 

1. Kirk Cousins - 30.4%

2. Josh Rosen - 35.9%
3. Josh Allen - 37.9%

4. Marcus Mariota - 38.1%

5. Andrew Luck - 38.6%

6. Baker Mayfield - 39.0%

7. Alex Smith - 39.1%

8. Jimmy Garoppolo - 39.3%

9. Philip Rivers - 39.7%

10. Joe Flaaco - 40.3%

11. Derek Carr - 40.5%

12. Andy Dalton - 41.1%

13. Russell Wilson - 41.6%

14. Carson Wentz - 41.7%

15. Case Keenum - 41.8%

16. Blaine Gabbert - 42.1%

17. Patrick Mahomes - 42.4%

18. Matt Ryan - 42.5%

19. Drew Brees - 42.6%

20. Aaron Rodgers - 43.2%

21. Matthew Stafford - 43.3%

22. Jameis Winston - 43.7%

23. Dak Prescott - 44.0%

24. Nick Foles - 45.3%

24. C.J. Beathard - 45.3%

26. Tom Brady - 46.4%

27. Jared Goff - 47.4%

28. Blake Bortles - 47.7%

28. Ryan Fitzpatrick - 47.7%

30. Ryan Tannehill - 49.8%

31. Tyrod Taylor - 50.0%

32. Sam Darnold - 50.3%

33. DeShaun Watson - 50.8%

34. Cam Newton - 52.9%

35. Eli Manning - 53.2%
36. Ben Roethlisberger - 54.9%

37. Nathan Peterman - 57.5%

38. Sam Bradford - 57.7%

39. Mitchell Trubisky - 62.8%

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean I think you did predict him to be an MVP candidate in 2019 in another thread....

 

 

I was talking about the 58%-60% completion percentage, not him being in the running for MVP.

 

I think his career completion percentage will be higher than 60%.

 

And yes, I still believe he's going to be in the running for league MVP this season.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I was talking about the 58%-60% completion percentage, not him being in the running for MVP.

 

I think his career completion percentage will be higher than 60%.

 

And yes, I still believe he's going to be in the running for league MVP this season.

 

Of course you do. I hope that one day one of your optimistic predictions comes true. It will be good for all of us.

[transplantbillsfan]

58 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Of course you do. I hope that one day one of your optimistic predictions comes true. It will be good for all of us.

 

It was:

 

...it might be--I think it will:

 

You're welcome.

[transplantbillsfan]

21 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) I was at work and hoping someone can do the work for me

 

2). Does anyone think Flacco  was  reason the Ravens won the Sb?

 

3) touché on that Luck season.  Didn’t realize he was so low.  He also threw 300 more passes than Allen that year and averaged more than 100 more yards passing.  But point taken.

 

but the overwhelming data, in today’s nfl, you aren’t making the playoffs with a sub 60% passer unless you have an elite defense.

My point was more that he won’t single handedly lose a game like Nate Peterman.  Peterman murdered the Bills.  

 

 

Flacco was absolutely the reason the Ravens won the Super Bowl...

 

were you actually paying attention to that historic run he had in the playoffs?

 

0 interceptions.

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Flacco was absolutely the reason the Ravens won the Super Bowl...

 

were you actually paying attention to that historic run he had in the playoffs?

 

0 interceptions.

 

Yea he wasn't the reason they made the playoffs though. He had a reasonably pedestrian season but then a brilliant post-season. Flacco has always been a better big game Quarterback than a regular game QB though in fairness. 

[C.Biscuit97]

18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Flacco was absolutely the reason the Ravens won the Super Bowl...

 

were you actually paying attention to that historic run he had in the playoffs?

 

0 interceptions.

He played awesome in the playoffs that season no doubt about it.  But please find me a Ravens fan who thinks Flacco is the reason they won that SB. You won’t.  He got hot like how ELi Manning would.  

[BarleyNY]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He played awesome in the playoffs that season no doubt about it.  But please find me a Ravens fan who thinks Flacco is the reason they won that SB. You won’t.  He got hot like how ELi Manning would.  

 

Dude, Flacco played out of his mind in the playoffs that year.  I was just as surprised as anyone else to watch him freaking carry that team.  And he did that in the last year of his contract, thus earning the huge deal he got.  Since then, of course, he has not been remotely worth that contract.  But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t crazy good in that playoff run and Super Bowl.  He was.  For the record, I’ll take that deal if I can get it here in Buffalo.  Give me a QB who’ll bring a Lombardi here like he did for Baltimore and I’ll be happy to see that man way overpaid.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea he wasn't the reason they made the playoffs though. He had a reasonably pedestrian season but then a brilliant post-season. Flacco has always been a better big game Quarterback than a regular game QB though in fairness. 

 

I know.

 

The poster above made a false claim, though.

 

Flaccid wasn't the reason he made the playoffs. But he absolutely was the reason they won all the way through the playoffs.

 

And any sane Ravens fan acknowledges that.

[transplantbillsfan]

This bodes really well for this season that this was his primary focus in the offseason.

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict Allen makes a gigantic leap in completion % to 62% or higher 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/05/23/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-aims-to-improve-accuracy-during-offseason/

Josh Allen aims to improve accuracy during offseason

 

“Consistently, delivering the ball where it needs to be. Ball placement is huge, especially in this league,” Allen said. “That is something that will never change, you always want to try to work on ball placement. Every day you come out, it’s kind of a new thing and sometimes the ball comes out of your hand a little bit differently. You have to make adjustments and understand what your body is trying to tell you and try to go with it.”

 

“Just trying to get the ball to the playmakers because we can’t do anything if they don’t have the ball in their hands,” he added.

 

Throughout his rookie season, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott pushed aside the notion that his QB’s completion percentage was worrisome. While McDermott fell short of addressing Allen’s accuracy on Tuesday, he did say he believes Allen knows where he needs to improve upon in his game.

 

“Yeah, first day. I’ve been impressed with his methodical work ethic and approach. It seems like he understands the work that he has to and that we have to do this offseason to get us to where we’re trying to get to as a football team,” McDermott said.