Bills 3-0 in games decided by 3 points or less...

[Hebert19]

Just saw that on the Bill's site.  That is unheard of for this squad.   We normally lose a lot of 3 point games.  Just like the game last week we are developing into closers.  

[billsfanmiami(oh)]

Yeah except for those two weeks before last...??‍♂️

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

Yeah except for those two weeks before last...??‍♂️

 

  3 points or less 21-17 = 4 and 27-23 = 4 

[Ronin]

19 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Just saw that on the Bill's site.  That is unheard of for this squad.   We normally lose a lot of 3 point games.  Just like the game last week we are developing into closers.  

 

So thanks to our ability to "close" we're 5-9?  ... 2-12 otherwise.  

 

Isn't this akin to getting a participation ribbon?  

[JerseyBills]

That's a great sign moving forward for such a young team. #TrustTheProcess

[Nanker]

1 + 1 = 11

[Hebert19]

31 minutes ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

Yeah except for those two weeks before last...??‍♂️

You mean when we drove down and should have won against dolphins.  Just saying. 

[Jobot]

This is a meaningless stat.

[BillsFan130]

4 minutes ago, Jobot said:

This is a meaningless stat.

Yes and no. Probably a better stat would be to see their record going into the 4th quarter in a 1 possession game.

 

Cause there were also games they lost in which they had the lead in the 4th. (Texans, Miami, Jets)

 

But it’s kind of good to know they are winning some tight games, especially with Allen of course. 

[billsfanmiami(oh)]

44 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

  3 points or less 21-17 = 4 and 27-23 = 4 

 

Thank you for the help Archimedes, I don’t understand math very well....My comment was more in general about the original poster saying we’re developing into closers. 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

 

Thank you for the help Archimedes, I don’t understand math very well....My comment was more in general about the original poster saying we’re developing into closers. 

 

I see that and the name is Pythagaros BTW. 

[GunnerBill]

3 points or fewer.....

[Ronin]

There's one thing that matters right now, that's Allen's development as a passer.  

 

Everything else is a country-mile distant 2nd in terms of what's relevant for this team going forward.  

 

If Allen can correct and improve his passing game, then we'll have found our franchise QB.  If not however, well, then it'll be wash/rinse/repeat time.  

 

Everyone hammered on Taylor, I was no different, but right now Allen's passing numbers aren't even what Taylor's were.  If they weren't good enough under Taylor, then until further notice they're still not good enough.  

 

Using only Allen's last four games post-injury, here are the comps between him and Taylor's time in Buffalo:  

 

Compl. %:  Taylor 61.6%, Allen 50.0% 

Yards-per-Game:  Taylor 201, Allen 200 

TDs/Game:  Taylor 1.2, Allen 1 

INTs/Game:  Taylor .4, Allen 1

Rating:  Taylor 92.5, Allen 70.1

TD%:  Taylor 4.1%, Allen 3.5% 

INT%:  Taylor 1.3%, Allen 3.5% 

YPA:  Taylor 7.2, Allen 7.0 

Adj. YPA:  Taylor 7.4, Allen 6.2 

 

The one area where Allen is better, at least over his last four games, is sack-avoidance where Allen's been sacked once every 20 dropbacks whereas Taylor was sacked once every 11, despite the fact that the four teams played recently are ranked 12th, 19th, 28th, and 31st (22nd average) in sacks.  

 

I've been pointing out that Allen's success, just as every QB's success in the NFL is, will be determined by his short-medium passing game.  The problem therein, at the moment, is that Allen's Red Zone game is horrible, worse than that of his draft peers, and near DFL among NFL starters if not DFL outright.  

 

The thing that people have failed to factor in, which is common for "strong-armed QBs," is that once a team gets down into the red zone there is no more "deep game" and the short-medium is an absolute must.  There's no argument against this, it's common sense and fact.  

 

Here's hoping, but that's what will need to happen.  Allen missed several check-down options this past game while throwing incomplete, or worse, INT, instead.  That cannot continue to happen.  

 

I'm not saying this improvement won't happen, all I'm saying is that anything else regarding the future of this team under McBeane will end up being irrlevant.  The fact that we've won three games of the 3-points-or-less variety in this case isn't all that encouraging given that the average scoring in those four games was 19.5 points-per-game, which is presently good for 27th of 32 in the league and less than it was under Taylor.  

 

 

[row_33]

16 minutes ago, Jobot said:

This is a meaningless stat.

 

The flow of the game is more important than the final score

 

garbagetime lets many points in for the loser to make it seem it was close for stat cherry picking 

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

way to cherry pick...the better metric would be one score games, but I guess you don't want to include the Jets loss by 4, the Texans loss by 7, or the Dolphins loss by 4...

 

Which would even their record at 3-3 in 1 score games.

[26CornerBlitz]

The team we see today isn't close to the team we'll see in '19 and beyond.    In the end, it's not anything to draw upon one way or the other.

[Ronin]

Just now, matter2003 said:

way to cherry pick...the better metric would be one score games, but I guess you don't want to include the Jets loss by 4, the Texans loss by 7, or the Dolphins loss by 4...

 

Which would even their record at 3-3 in 1 score games.

 

The better metric(s) are averages by game.  We've criticized a team for years, recently in particular, for its futility in the passing game.  Yet now for some reason, with metrics in those games not even what they were when we were hammering on the passing game, for some reason it's all better.  It's mind-boggling.  

 

I'm sorry, but as a pure passer, right now Allen needs a whole lotta work.  Excitement is one thing, average and overall performance is quite another.  

 

We can project the lights out, but until it actually happens, there's a risk that it will not.  

[row_33]

10 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

The better metric(s) are averages by game.  We've criticized a team for years, recently in particular, for its futility in the passing game.  Yet now for some reason, with metrics in those games not even what they were when we were hammering on the passing game, for some reason it's all better.  It's mind-boggling.  

 

I'm sorry, but as a pure passer, right now Allen needs a whole lotta work.  Excitement is one thing, average and overall performance is quite another.  

 

We can project the lights out, but until it actually happens, there's a risk that it will not.  

 

the only metric is the win-loss record

 

especially in football

 

the only objective of a team is to win, they will give up all kinds of stats to secure a one point win

 

and a top team is only concerned with securing Home Field Advantage and will give up all kinds of stats to secure it

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

7 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

There's one thing that matters right now, that's Allen's development as a passer.  

 

Everything else is a country-mile distant 2nd in terms of what's relevant for this team going forward.  

 

If Allen can correct and improve his passing game, then we'll have found our franchise QB.  If not however, well, then it'll be wash/rinse/repeat time.  

 

Everyone hammered on Taylor, I was no different, but right now Allen's passing numbers aren't even what Taylor's were.  If they weren't good enough under Taylor, then until further notice they're still not good enough.  

 

Using only Allen's last four games post-injury, here are the comps between him and Taylor's time in Buffalo:  

 

Compl. %:  Taylor 61.6%, Allen 50.0% 

Yards-per-Game:  Taylor 201, Allen 200 

TDs/Game:  Taylor 1.2, Allen 1 

INTs/Game:  Taylor .4, Allen 1

Rating:  Taylor 92.5, Allen 70.1

TD%:  Taylor 4.1%, Allen 3.5% 

INT%:  Taylor 1.3%, Allen 3.5% 

YPA:  Taylor 7.2, Allen 7.0 

Adj. YPA:  Taylor 7.4, Allen 6.2 

 

The one area where Allen is better, at least over his last four games, is sack-avoidance where Allen's been sacked once every 20 dropbacks whereas Taylor was sacked once every 11, despite the fact that the four teams played recently are ranked 12th, 19th, 28th, and 31st (22nd average) in sacks.  

 

I've been pointing out that Allen's success, just as every QB's success in the NFL is, will be determined by his short-medium passing game.  The problem therein, at the moment, is that Allen's Red Zone game is horrible, worse than that of his draft peers, and near DFL among NFL starters if not DFL outright.  

 

The thing that people have failed to factor in, which is common for "strong-armed QBs," is that once a team gets down into the red zone there is no more "deep game" and the short-medium is an absolute must.  There's no argument against this, it's common sense and fact.  

 

Here's hoping, but that's what will need to happen.  Allen missed several check-down options this past game while throwing incomplete, or worse, INT, instead.  That cannot continue to happen.  

 

I'm not saying this improvement won't happen, all I'm saying is that anything else regarding the future of this team under McBeane will end up being irrlevant.  The fact that we've won three games of the 3-points-or-less variety in this case isn't all that encouraging given that the average scoring in those four games was 19.5 points-per-game, which is presently good for 27th of 32 in the league and less than it was under Taylor.  

 

 

 

This a false comparison: a rookie versus a vet.   

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

The better metric(s) are averages by game.  We've criticized a team for years, recently in particular, for its futility in the passing game.  Yet now for some reason, with metrics in those games not even what they were when we were hammering on the passing game, for some reason it's all better.  It's mind-boggling.  

 

I'm sorry, but as a pure passer, right now Allen needs a whole lotta work.  Excitement is one thing, average and overall performance is quite another.  

 

We can project the lights out, but until it actually happens, there's a risk that it will not.  

 

Ehh...he's been over 200 yards the past 3 games...Tyrod used to regularly be under 200 yards.  He needs weapons more than anything. And an OL that can open up something in the run game.

[row_33]

12 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Ehh...he's been over 200 yards the past 3 games...Tyrod used to regularly be under 200 yards.  He needs weapons more than anything. And an OL that can open up something in the run game.

 

Tyrod at his peak here was better than Allen is currently, there is a lot of optimism in the development of Allen over the short term

 

 

[Inigo Montoya]

10 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Tyrod at his peak here was better than Allen is currently, there is a lot of optimism in the development of Allen over the short term

 

 

 

I agree row_33, but I think what we are seeing now is likely Allen’s floor, and we are comparing it to Tyrod’s ceiling, and they aren’t that far apart.

 

 

Edited December 19, 2018 by Inigo Montoya

[Big Turk]

14 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Tyrod at his peak here was better than Allen is currently, there is a lot of optimism in the development of Allen over the short term

 

 

I'm not sure about that...Allen makes throws that Tyrod wouldn't even dream of making and he doesn't have Watkins, Woods, Goodwin and Hogan as WR's either...plus he had a Clay who could actually play back then.

Edited December 19, 2018 by matter2003

[row_33]

13 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I agree row_33, but I think what we are seeing now is likely Allen’s floor, and we are comparing it to Tyrod’s ceiling, and they aren’t that far apart.

 

 

 

potential and $5.50 gets me a grande latte at Starbucks

 

it's supernice to feel Allen has a great future here though, been a long long lonely long time without that optimism...

 

 

10 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

I'm not sure about that...Allen makes throws that Tyrod wouldn't even dream of making

 

Tyrod had some leadership in him, we did get to the playoffs, but most of us weren't fooled

 

ponderous...

 

 

[SCBills]

36 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

This a false comparison: a rookie versus a vet.   

 

A rookie vs a vet, where the rookie also has no weapons and the OL from the prior season lost it's heart and soul at Center, along with it's pro-bowl Guard.

[row_33]

12 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

A rookie vs a vet, where the rookie also has no weapons and the OL from the prior season lost it's heart and soul at Center, along with it's pro-bowl Guard.

 

no excuses

 

OL was just as bad for Juice, Kelly, Flutie...

 

sometimes a man has to make his own way out there

 

 

Flutie was wily enough to escape the brutal beating that took years out of the peak of the other two

 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

no excuses

 

OL was just as bad for Juice, Kelly, Flutie...

 

sometimes a man has to make his own way out there

 

 

Flutie was wily enough to escape the brutal beating that took years out of the peak of the other two

 

 

The O-Line was just as bad for Kelly?  We had one of the best offensive lines in the league for 5 or 6 years with Kelly...what are you talking about??  Did you even watch the games?

Edited December 19, 2018 by matter2003

[row_33]

13 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

The O-Line was just as bad for Kelly?  We had one of the best offensive lines in the league for 5 or 6 years with Kelly...what are you talking about??  Did you even watch the games?

 

he got the living pus beat out of him in those Super Bowls, one of the Dallas ones has a montage of ten seconds that is cruel and unusual punishment

 

the AFC was barely JV for over a dozen years, the Bills were the only team that would have made the playoffs out of that AFC if they were in the NFC

 

Kelly had a tailor-made O with near-elite RB and WR to get the ball out quick and STILL took a BRUTAL BEATING all the time

 

 

it cost Jim, one of the toughest men to ever play the game, at least 4 years of his peak

 

[BillsSB2020]

Same as last year. McDermott, for whatever it's worth, tends to do well in extremely tight games. One of the things I like about him. 

[TroutDog]

55 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

This a false comparison: a rookie versus a vet.   

Not to mention long throws and throws over the middle. Opposing D’s only had to cover 2/3 of the field against TT. 

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

1 hour ago, TaskersGhost said:

There's one thing that matters right now, that's Allen's development as a passer.  

YES

The thing that people have failed to factor in, which is common for "strong-armed QBs," is that once a team gets down into the red zone there is no more "deep game" and the short-medium is an absolute must.  There's no argument against this, it's common sense and fact.  

 

I am not as worried about this yet. But play calling and drops by Clay, KB and Zay would make these numbers a bit better. The Bills have done better in the Red Zone as the season progressed and Allen is doing a lot with his legs, as well as the McKittrick sweeps. I think we will see a lot more improvement next year with a WR who can win contested catches, a real TE and a better OL. 

[Big Turk]

19 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

he got the living pus beat out of him in those Super Bowls, one of the Dallas ones has a montage of ten seconds that is cruel and unusual punishment

 

the AFC was barely JV for over a dozen years, the Bills were the only team that would have made the playoffs out of that AFC if they were in the NFC

 

Kelly had a tailor-made O with near-elite RB and WR to get the ball out quick and STILL took a BRUTAL BEATING all the time

 

 

it cost Jim, one of the toughest men to ever play the game, at least 4 years of his peak

 

 

Revisionist history at its finest.

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

way to cherry pick...the better metric would be one score games, but I guess you don't want to include the Jets loss by 4, the Texans loss by 7, or the Dolphins loss by 4...

 

Which would even their record at 3-3 in 1 score games.

In fairness he did his job imo in the Jet n Mia game. The ol played atrocious in those 2 and he had us up in both , with the D surrendering a last minute TD vs NY and Clay dropping a game winning pass in Mia. The Texans game he couldn't finish , so that's not on Allen.

Edited December 19, 2018 by JerseyBills

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

In fairness he did his job imo in the Jet n Mia game. The ol played atrocious in those 2 and he had us up in both , with the D surrendering a last minute TD vs NY and Clay dropping a game winning pass in Mia. The Texans game he couldn't finish , so that's not on Allen.

Not saying its on Allen, the thread is about the Bills being 3-0 in games decided by 3 points or under not specifically on Allen

[JerseyBills]

Just now, matter2003 said:

Not saying its on Allen, the thread is about the Bills being 3-0 in games decided by 3 points or under not specifically on Allen

True that. Well I agree with what McD has consistently said all year, it's a very young team littered with guys barely able to drink legally. They have to learn to win in this league . Some very close misses versus Hou,NY and Mia , I'm willing to give them a pass because of the promising youth and hope they learn from those close losses which I think with the character and talent, they will learn.

[Marv's Neighbor]

Similar to the Sabres.  They have to put themselves in a hole before they eventually WAKE UP!

[Ronin]

57 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

 

I am not as worried about this yet. But play calling and drops by Clay, KB and Zay would make these numbers a bit better. The Bills have done better in the Red Zone as the season progressed and Allen is doing a lot with his legs, as well as the McKittrick sweeps. I think we will see a lot more improvement next year with a WR who can win contested catches, a real TE and a better OL. 

 

I'm not worried or not worried, just sayin' that it has to improve.  If it doesn't, then it ain't happenin'.  It is what it is at this point, we've been forlorn Bills fans for so long that we should all realize that nothing is guaranteed, least of all not the health of a QB that's going to lead all QBs in rushing.  If I am concerned about anything it's that Allen has been plagued by this stuff his entire collegiate career.  IMO, based upon a wealth of NFL (and collegiate) history, the odds of him not improving to the extent necessary are greater than the odds of him improving to the extent that he becomes a franchise QB, namely a top-10 (at least) passer.  That's neither here nor there either as what I think, or anyone thinks for that matter, is irrelevant in how this plays out. 

 

But again, the problem with him "doing it with his legs" is that he's going to start taking a ton of hits and eventually he's going to get walluped to the extent where he has a season-ending if not career-threatening injury.  He's already taken a couple of mean and dicey hits and teams are starting to catch on that he likes to run and will plan on it.  The coaching staff is clearly concerned since they've mentioned this very thing, with concern.  I mean did we draft him on the premise that we were going to get 1,000 yards rushing out of him every season, or for some other reason, namely that he was the solution to our perennially ailing passing-game?  Clearly the latter.  

 

He's not even the best "deep-armed" QB statistically in the batch of this year's top draftees.  That's supposed to be his strength.  Sure, he's hit Foster on several deep throws, but what has gone completely unnoticed and therefore unmentioned is that more often than not, and on the two biggest of those throws, they were resultant from broken coverages.  that's not something you want to plan on happening to win games, eh.  It's not a performance measure, it's a "luck" kinda thing. 

 

As to dropped passes, that's a common argument, but also one that only applies if the team had no dropped passes on Taylor's watch or in comps on other teams in the league re: QBs that we're comparing him too.  Unfortunately, dropped passes are both a normal as well as expected part of the game.  

 

In fact, the Bills actually rank well above-average in terms of dropped passes and better than we did last season, and Zay Jones, arguably our most prominent WR, is up nearly 20% in catch% from last season under Taylor.  Granted, he's still bottom-dwelling in that regard, but he's significantly better than his near DFL status of last season.  So in allowing for the same standards to be applied across the board, while it looks good on paper the reality is that it's not a significant mitigating data bit at this point.  

 

As to getting "a WR who can win contested catches, a real TE and a better OL," that's a lot to get with only one pick in each of the first three rounds of the draft on days 1 & 2, one typically does not find those players on day-3 where depth and role-players are the fare.  Also, McBeane's track record on day 3 is not good.  

 

I realize that we have $90M in cap money, but most of that can all but vaporize on two or three players.  Given whom McBeane have brought in to date thus far as free-agents, I'm not sure that confidence in that happening to that extent should be that high.  As well, even if they draft well and have a top-notch free-agency, there are still going to be a player or two that doesn't pan out as expected.  That's normal on all teams.  

 

Either way, people are talking about McKenzie and Foster as great moves, well, if they're that great, then problem solved and the results should be forthcoming very soon.  Again, not sure I have that confidence in those players based upon the circumstances.  We can't have it both ways tho, meaning those two being ringers and yet Allen "not having any tools."  Jones is what he is, a bad draft pick, IMO obvious at the time, who will likely be with the team next season because he's relatively cheap, even for a 3 or 4 WR, but who may not be with the team after that or if he is, is likely to be gone after his first contract following the 2020 season.  No one's going to be champing at the bit to get him.  He was massively overrated out of the gate.  

 

We'll see what happens, as should be obvious, us discussing this isn't going to alter the realities one iota.  Obviously we're all hoping that Allen pans out as a franchise QB, I simply see too much that is difficult to "coach-up" for me to become more excited than I am concerned.  

 

However we discuss this tho, we must apply the same standards across the board.  We cannot make exceptions for one player in a contrast-and-comparison while not allowing for the same exceptions in the overall analysis, particularly when it hurts the other players in the analysis more than it hurts the one that we're trying to bolster.  

 

Edited December 19, 2018 by TaskersGhost

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, Nanker said:

1 + 1 = 11

quit stealing my joke .....    1 and 1 = 11