Article - Making a case for Josh Allen as the NFL's best rookie quarterback over Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson

[One Buffalo]

Have to say I agree with Brady Quinn-

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/making-a-case-for-josh-allen-as-the-nfls-best-rookie-quarterback-over-baker-mayfield-lamar-jackson/

 

Quote

Allen to me is the one who people say is not very accurate. I watched his game because I've got the call on Lions-Bills coming up this week. And there are a lot of dropped passes. There were a couple I watched literally bounce off right between the numbers," Quinn continued. "People are going to knock this guy for his accuracy? Are they watching film and checking out his completion percentage and his adjusted completion percentage? Who's even grading that? Is it some guy who's ever played football? Or is it some guy who's eating popcorn in his parents basement? 

"Either way, I watched him and I feel like he'll continually get better. And as that team gets better around him and he has some help, like a running game. I think he's the guy right now who you can see why the Bills took him No. 7 overall."

 

[blacklabel]

Nice assessment.

 

Allen definitely makes his fair share of, "Whoa, holy crap!" plays but he also has a few, "Whoa, what the crap!" moments as well. In between there, he has an OL that is very inconsistent. A running game that can't get out of its own way and receivers who take turns dropping well-placed throws. And yeah, Allen misses sometimes but if you bought into all the pre-draft hype about him, you would've believed that this kid throws every third pass into the upper deck. At Wyoming, a lot of his big time throws came with his scrambling and improvising to make a play. He's done that here as well but what he's done a lot more of is make crisp, solid, on-time, accurate throws from the pocket. As we saw on Sunday, when he has a hot start, his confidence goes sky high and then he starts trying to do too much. He's gotta get better at that. Sometimes the play just isn't there no matter what you try so you gotta be smart, protect the ball and move on to the next play. 

 

Zay Jones looked like he was turning a corner but these last couple weeks he's been inconsistent. Other guys have drops as well, Jones just came to mind first. Josh can help these guys out by learning when to really zip it with a lot of velocity and when to just kinda feather it to his guy. Not every throw has to be a fastball. There's been a couple times here his fastball causes the drop because it'll spin right through a receivers hands, bounce off his chest and hit the ground. 

 

I'm certain he will be hosting receivers, tight ends and backs in the off-season to work on their own time and get their chemistry and timing down a bit more.

 

Overall, I gotta remain cautiously optimistic because we've had high hopes before, only to see them dashed. But... I have to say, in just the eight games he's played in this year, he has made some throws and some plays that you rarely see... and he looks as though he can do that on a regular basis. That 75-yard TD to Foster was a thing of beauty. I have no idea how he got that throw off. I saw the pocket collapsing, couldn't even see Allen at that point, I though, "D'oh, sack, stupid Jags." And then suddenly the ball comes flying out of there, hits Foster in stride and he walks into the end zone. I sincerely think the dude just has that stuff. Sometimes you watch games and you spot a player and you get that feeling of, "Man, that dude has it, he's gonna be good." Again, don't wanna get ahead of myself but Josh has made enough plays for me to really believe in that. I hope his arrow is pointing up and as he grows he just gets better and better. He may still  make a bonehead play now and again but if his bonehead plays are minimal when put up against his good plays then I think we can all live with that. And they all make bonehead plays. Russell Wilson had a whopper last night. He had 3rd and goal (I think) from inside the five, they called a pass, he drops back and gets flushed out quickly, he's scrambling back trying to avoid the pressure, which finally catches up with him, he tries to throw it away but he throws this weird sidearm pass towards the sideline but it floated right to a Vikings player and he picked it. The only reason I point this out is because I really feel like there are posters on this board that will throw the kid under the bus no matter what. They demand some kind of unattainable level of perfection that just doesn't happen in football. Again, as long as the good heavily outweighs the bad, I'm all in.

Edited December 11, 2018 by blacklabel

[billsfan1959]

18 minutes ago, One Buffalo said:

Allen to me is the one who people say is not very accurate. I watched his game because I've got the call on Lions-Bills coming up this week. And there are a lot of dropped passes. There were a couple I watched literally bounce off right between the numbers," Quinn continued. "People are going to knock this guy for his accuracy? Are they watching film and checking out his completion percentage and his adjusted completion percentage? Who's even grading that? Is it some guy who's ever played football? Or is it some guy who's eating popcorn in his parents basement? 

"Either way, I watched him and I feel like he'll continually get better. And as that team gets better around him and he has some help, like a running game. I think he's the guy right now who you can see why the Bills took him No. 7 overall."

 

 

I think I know which posters he is talking about.....

[Stank_Nasty]

encouraging to read. thanks for this.

[LABILLBACKER]

If you include all the drops, Allen  would've thrown for 25/36  69%.

The accuracy number will slowly creep up with better wrs and JA taking a little off his fastball. Not to mention better protection. All obvious improvements needed in a few months.

[transplantbillsfan]

Already posted here:

 

but good article for discussion.  And I agree with Quinn, too.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

37 minutes ago, One Buffalo said:

Have to say I agree with Brady Quinn-

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/making-a-case-for-josh-allen-as-the-nfls-best-rookie-quarterback-over-baker-mayfield-lamar-jackson/

 

 

some guy who's eating popcorn in his parents basement

[transplantbillsfan]

3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If you include all the drops, Allen  would've thrown for 25/36  69%.

The accuracy number will slowly creep up with better wrs and JA taking a little off his fastball. Not to mention better protection. All obvious improvements needed in a few months.

Can you identify all the drops?

 

The broadcast put the stat up for drops in the 1st half of the game at 3.  After that I remember Zay's absolutely ridiculous drop.  That's 4.

 

What were the other 3 plays?

 

Just curious because I no longer have game pass, so I can't go back and watch.

 

Regardless, even with the 4 drops I just identified, 22/36 would still be above 60% at 61.1%.

 

And I remember last week against Miami the same thing happened as I counted the drops and Allen again jumped up above 60% if our WRs caught those balls.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

nice read, thanks for sharing OP.

[Troll Toll]

The most encouraging thing I’m seeing from Allen is that the game appears to have slowed down considerably for him. He is navigating away from the instantaneous pressure and finding guys open downfield. It’s night and day from where he was at the start of the year. Last night we saw what Russell Wilson looks like when Doug Baldwin is out. 

 

Our receivers don’t get the separation you see on other teams. Get Josh some weapons.

[whatdrought]

Another invaluable point is how many holding and false starts are happening and wiping out great plays by Josh.

 

people say the jets don’t have much around Darnold, but it’s a lot more than what Buffalo has.

[Bill Murray]

10 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Another invaluable point is how many holding and false starts are happening and wiping out great plays by Josh.

 

people say the jets don’t have much around Darnold, but it’s a lot more than what Buffalo has.

100% agree... in the Miami game, CONSECUTIVE 3rd down conversions were wiped out on offensive penalties.   It’s a fools errand to quantify all the drops and offensive penalties on “what would have been” huge plays and so “what would have been”better stat lines.  Bottom line is the kid has the stuff and as the team around him gets better, his numbers will also get better.  Right now the stats are misleading and also largely irrelevant...

[PolishPrince]

20 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Another invaluable point is how many holding and false starts are happening and wiping out great plays by Josh.

 

people say the jets don’t have much around Darnold, but it’s a lot more than what Buffalo has.

Also this. Not only is it negating great plays by Josh which pad his stats better... Josh is constantly starting drives 1st and 20 it seems making his job a lot harder - even harder once Shady or Ivory run for no gain setting up 2nd and 20.

[Mike in Horseheads]

38 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

some guy who's eating popcorn in his parents basement

Caught again eh.

[CincyBillsFan]

Great article and I think it was fair because Quinn pointed out something that a lot of the National football media seems to ignore - Allen has very little help from his offensive teammates. 

 

If you look at the rankings of how the QB's have played to date Quinn get's it right by putting Mayfield at the top and Allen second.  Talk that Allen may have a higher upside is just talk at this point.  Hopefully over the next 10 years this becomes a raging debate.  Because if it does it means Allen is that guy for us. 

[billsredneck1]

1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

Another invaluable point is how many holding and false starts are happening and wiping out great plays by Josh.

 

people say the jets don’t have much around Darnold, but it’s a lot more than what Buffalo has.

not to sound ignorant but, what happens stat wise in that case? josh completes a pass...called back for penalty.  does that even get recorded in the attempts/comp.?

 

btw ..offensive penalties. i get the turnover with wood and richie but this line and run game have been coming unraveled for a couple of years now and i blame that all on position coaching...or...err....run game coordinator.

Edited December 11, 2018 by billsredneck1

[CincyBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

not to sound ignorant but, what happens stat wise in that case? josh completes a pass...called back for penalty.  does that even get recorded in the attempts/comp.?

 

 

 

If the defense accepts the penalty then the play never happened so nothing is entered into the stats. 

[VW82]

Obviously I disagree with Brady (see my post detailing his throws vs. Jets). Accounting for drops and throwaways (not just for Josh but all QBs) doesn't move him from bottom of the NFL to middle of the pack. He's still near the bottom. Nice try though. Consider ESPN's Total QBR which adjusts for all this stuff still rates Allen as the worst passer in the NFL on the year. 

 

What I will say in his defense is he makes star plays, both running and throwing. I don't know this, but I bet he has a higher rate of making big time throws than most QBs. Some of the passes he makes are just spectacular. Surely someone that gifted will figure it out, right?  

 

 

Edited December 12, 2018 by VW82

[MDH]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If you include all the drops, Allen  would've thrown for 25/36  69%.

 

Here's a list of the most dropped passes by team.

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

 

The Bills come in at 13 with 15 drops on the season. The do throw less than most teams, so perhaps their drop percentage would be near the top. I don't feel like doing the math on that one. 

 

These stats are way different than your perception that the Bills dropped 11 balls in one game though...

 

That said, I don't know if these stats include week 14.

 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Obviously I disagree with Brady (see my post detailing his throws vs. Jets). Accounting for drops and throwaways (not just for Josh but all QBs) doesn't move him from bottom of the NFL to middle of the pack. He's still near the bottom. Nice try though. Consider ESPN's Total QBR which adjusts for all this stuff still rates Allen as the worst passer in the NFL on the year. 

 

What I will say in his defense is he makes star plays, both running and throwing. I don't know this, but I bet he has a higher rate of making big time throws than most QBs. Some of the passes he makes are just spectacular. Surely someone that gifted will figure it out, right?  

 

 

Well...not to stop people from checking out your post detailing his throws vs. the Jets or anything, but consider that Allen's actually ranked 19th in ESPN's Total QBR. Ahead of the other rookies. 

 

Also, lol at QBR.