Jump to content

Survivor Pool


Doc

Recommended Posts

I'm in two pools with three entries in each.  I'm going with Carolina twice, Detroit twice, and the Rams twice.

 

Staying away from the prohibitive public favorites (Baltimore, New Orleans, Green Bay) like the plague this early in the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, eball said:

If you're making your pick(s) in a survivor pool just to get through to the next week, you're doing it wrong.  Just sayin'...

 

How are you doing it wrong by picking what you believe to be the best option the current week?  By "saving" a team for later weeks, you're pretty much assuring that you won't see the later weeks.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

How are you doing it wrong by picking what you believe to be the best option the current week?  By "saving" a team for later weeks, you're pretty much assuring that you won't see the later weeks.

 

It's not about saving a team, it's about staying away from the most popular picks while still selecting a team that has reasonable odds of advancing.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

It's not about saving a team, it's about staying away from the most popular picks while still selecting a team that has reasonable odds of advancing.

 

I see what you're saying.  Crowded picks can eliminate a lot of people if the game ends up being an upset.  But sometimes, the best pick is the best pick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Happy Gilmore said:

 

I see what you're saying.  Crowded picks can eliminate a lot of people if the game ends up being an upset.  But sometimes, the best pick is the best pick.

 

I think Green Bay, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh are sucker picks this week -- all have a legitimate chance to lose.  New Orleans is probably the safest, but they're also one of the most popular so I'm staying away because there are lots of "good" picks down the line (Detroit, Carolina, Rams).  I also try to stay away from divisional games if at all possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

 

The Ravens are not a good pick in week one.  Unless they have some sort of Lamar Jackson big play gimmick stuff, they'll be flat on offense as usual.  

 

It will be a tight defensive struggle for sure but I see the Ravens moving the ball more consistently on the Bills "bend don't break" defense and slowly kicking a bunch of field goals. While I don't see the Bills offense generating much against a pretty good Raven's defense. 

 

I see it being a  21-10 Raven's win. That being said close defensive games come down to turnovers and one or two plays and that could swing to the Bills just as easily as it could to the Ravens.

2 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I think Green Bay, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh are sucker picks this week -- all have a legitimate chance to lose.  New Orleans is probably the safest, but they're also one of the most popular so I'm staying away because there are lots of "good" picks down the line (Detroit, Carolina, Rams).  I also try to stay away from divisional games if at all possible.

 

Week 1 always has some crazy upsets, I usually get out of my suicide pool very early or very late.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, eball said:

I'm in two pools with three entries in each.  I'm going with Carolina twice, Detroit twice, and the Rams twice.

 

Staying away from the prohibitive public favorites (Baltimore, New Orleans, Green Bay) like the plague this early in the season.

I only get to pick one team per week per season...also get one rebuy but you have to correctly pick that week's Monday night game to buy back in. 

 

I'm personally taking the Vikings this week, my buddy and I share a pick in the pool and we're going Green Bay. He's taking the Saints like probably 50% of the country playing suicide.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I only get to pick one team per week per season...also get one rebuy but you have to correctly pick that week's Monday night game to buy back in. 

 

I'm personally taking the Vikings this week, my buddy and I share a pick in the pool and we're going Green Bay. He's taking the Saints like probably 50% of the country playing suicide.

 

 

 

That's my big reason for going Lions. Everyone and their cocaine-addled sister are picking the Saints. IF there's an upset there, I'm golden.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, joesixpack said:

 

That's my big reason for going Lions. Everyone and their cocaine-addled sister are picking the Saints. IF there's an upset there, I'm golden.

 

Exactly. Especially early, I stay away from 'lock' picks because A- everyone is taking that game and an upset really thins the herd and B- first few weeks of the regular season are always turbulent, hard to predict...especially divisional games. Not only am I staying away from Saints in suicide, I have a $50 sidebet that the Bucaneers cover. And since I only get to pick each team once, I want the Saints next week at home against the Browns WAY more than opening week against a division opponent. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, eball said:

 

I think Green Bay, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh are sucker picks this week -- all have a legitimate chance to lose.  New Orleans is probably the safest, but they're also one of the most popular so I'm staying away because there are lots of "good" picks down the line (Detroit, Carolina, Rams).  I also try to stay away from divisional games if at all possible.

Good tip about divisional games, I find they typically end closer then most other games do against non divisional teams so i dont typically go with the spread if it's high for the favorite.

1 hour ago, joesixpack said:

 

That's my big reason for going Lions. Everyone and their cocaine-addled sister are picking the Saints. IF there's an upset there, I'm golden.

 

But your also picking the Lions, a time that could resort to their usual bad selves and lose to a young Jets team....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

Good tip about divisional games, I find they typically end closer then most other games do against non divisional teams so i dont typically go with the spread if it's high for the favorite.

But your also picking the Lions, a time that could resort to their usual bad selves and lose to a young Jets team....

 

If it was AT new york, I'd have concerns.

 

I don't have the faith in Darnold some around here do.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, joesixpack said:

 

If it was AT new york, I'd have concerns.

 

I don't have the faith in Darnold some around here do.

 

My concern isnt about having faith in Darnold, I just think that they have improved a bit from last year and the Lions arent that great of a team that can be expected to not lose games they Re expected to win. I have the Lions to win in a pick'em pool this week, just wouldn't be confident enough to take them in a survivor pool just yet against the Jets.

 

 

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Exactly. Especially early, I stay away from 'lock' picks because A- everyone is taking that game and an upset really thins the herd and B- first few weeks of the regular season are always turbulent, hard to predict...especially divisional games. Not only am I staying away from Saints in suicide, I have a $50 sidebet that the Bucaneers cover. And since I only get to pick each team once, I want the Saints next week at home against the Browns WAY more than opening week against a division opponent. 

I never worry about what others are picking in a survivor pool cause it doesnt matter, you need to worry about yourself only cause a win is still the same whether the entire pool picked it or your the only one.

 

If it comes down to picking between teams sometimes I will try and save some teams for later, but otherwise I just take whomever I feel has the best chance to win

Edited by apuszczalowski
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:

 

But your also picking the Lions, a time that could resort to their usual bad selves and lose to a young Jets team....

 

13 hours ago, joesixpack said:

 

If it was AT new york, I'd have concerns.

 

I don't have the faith in Darnold some around here do.

 

 

Lions are not a bad team, and Patricia likely knows how to confuse a rookie QB.  I think Detroit is a strong pick.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

 

Lions are not a bad team, and Patricia likely knows how to confuse a rookie QB.  I think Detroit is a strong pick.

The Lions could be good, but Patricia is unknown at this point as a head coach, as much as Darnold. Patricia could come out looking like Rex Ryan and Darnold like Brady or je could look like BB with Darnold looking like Manzel. BBs former coordinators haven't had good track records once they leave him and are on their own.....

 

I think this game falls into the "too risky" category of a pick for a survivor/suicide pool pick in week 1

Edited by apuszczalowski
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

The Lions could be good, but Patricia is unknown at this point as a head coach, as much as Darnold. Patricia could come out looking like Rex Ryan and Darnold like Brady or je could look like BB with Darnold looking like Manzel. BBs former coordinators haven't had good track records once they leave him and are on their own.....

 

I think this game falls into the "too risky" category of a pick for a survivor/suicide pool pick in week 1

 

The odds are far greater that Patricia shuts down Darnold than Darnold looks like Brady.  If this were a home Jets game, I'd be more wary.

Edited by Doc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32% knocked out so far in my pool thanks to the Saints losing.  If the Bills had won, another 22% would have been gone.  Hopefully the Packers lose tonight so another 13% get knocked out.  And hopefully the Lions and Rams win tomorrow night. 

Edited by Doc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Doc said:

32% knocked out so far in my pool thanks to the Saints losing.  If the Bills had won, another 22% would have been gone.  Hopefully the Packers lose tonight so another 13% get knocked out.  And hopefully the Lions and Rams win tomorrow night. 

In one I'm in, over 60 of 183 people took the Saints as their pick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...