Gunner's 2018 Mock Draft UPDATED - Final version on Page 6

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

8? I think I have 6.  Still a lot though. 

I believe that I predicted 6 over a year ago and was told I was crazy (lamp).

[Lothar]

Gunner, Kirby and Bandit - I think there may be one or two more among the TBD regulars that really put the time in to the draft process. Thanks for this! Can't wait to see the others also. While I am a Mayfield fan - his will to win and his accuracy remind me of Rivers but he also has a stronger arm and more mobility - I'd be fully on board with Rosen as well.

 

With this class being deep for RB and DT as well, Gunner, who do you think might slot into those positions when the Bills pick? 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Lothar

[PolishDave]

1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

thats the problem  IF  

 

You're right.   But, Mcdermott has to hit on a Qb this year somehow - either through drafting high - or drafting wherever or through free agency.     Because if he doesn't hit at least close enough to the mark, then he is going to be hitting the road within a couple years.

 

He has to be smart enough to realize that.     So, I think he and Beane just might be willing to overspend to try and get whoever they think the right guy is.

Edited February 19, 2018 by PolishDave
clarity

[Lothar]

57 minutes ago, KRT88 said:

5 draft picks traded for 1

 

no way

 

I'd offer the 21 and 22, plus a 2019 1st and a 3rd this year but not going 4 picks this year plus a 2nd from next year. 

24. Panthers - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame 

 

massively under drafted.  Likely to go top 10.

 

There's a decent chance we'll be picking top 10 next year with a rookie QB. No way I trade that away instead of our 2nd this year.

 

[corta765]

4 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I just can't understand why we would trade up for a QB that already has a concussion history plus a nerve issue in his elbow and problems with his shoulder . Rosen is damaged goods . HOW DO PEOPLE NOT SEE THIS?

 

Probably because the NFL draft is littered with "can't miss guys" who bombed out and guys who "have major questions" that turned into studs. If the Bills like a guy to the point they feel that strongly then go for it and be done. It's better then waiting like they did with Losman and instead of going for Big Ben.

 

Gunner good draft. It falls in line with a lot I've been reading. Only thing I may disagree with is Zona trading up to #4 I think the Browns want to draft high this year after acquiring soo much the last few years.

Edited February 19, 2018 by corta765

[Buffalo Barbarian]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Here it is Mock Draft 2018 version 1.0. Before people start debating about the trade values…. They are all broadly in line with the Jimmy Johnson chart but amended a little bit to take into account the Rich Hill chart which has re-assigned pick values by tracking actual deals that have happened in recent years (and which at least a few teams have hinted that they are now using).

 

1. Browns - Sam Darnold, QB, USC

After trading out of spots where Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson were taken in the last two drafts the Browns have gone back to a traditional football savvy GM in John Dorsey. He knows you need a QB to win in the NFL and Sam Darnold seems to fit his profile of what one looks like.

 

2. Giants - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

I firmly believe the Giants are riding with Eli at QB for now. They are a trade back candidate at this spot but I feel like they don't want to move down as far as the likely trade up candidates would require because they have a desperate need at RB and Barkley is a potential elite talent.

 

3. TRADE! Bills - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA (Bills get #3 & 6th Rounder; Colts get #21, #22, #53, 2018 4th rounder and 2019 2nd rounder)

There are two teams in this draft publicly making noises about being aggressive at QB. The first of those, the Buffalo Bills, swing and swing big to take a shot on Josh Rosen. They are clearly ready to move on from Tyrod Taylor and hope to finally end 22 years of searching for the heir to Jim Kelly.

 

4. TRADE! Cardinals - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming (Cardinals get #4; Browns get #15, #47 and 2019 1st rounder)

The second is the Cardinals. As we stand they are in an even worse spot than the Bills having nothing of an NFL standard at the position. I suspect they target either Nick Foles or AJ McCarron as a bridge. Josh Allen is a big armed, downfield passer and even though Bruce Arians has gone that strikes me as the Arizona template for a franchise QB.

 

5. Broncos - Quenten Nelson, G, Notre Dame

Denver doesn't take a QB here because I expect them to win the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes. Their offensive line has been a question mark for a number of years now and Nelson is considered by many to be the safest prospect in this draft.

 

6. Jets - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

The Jets sit tight and hold their nerve at #6 and still end up with a high end Quarterback prospect. Mayfield's brash attitude seems tailor made for New York and after years of taking shots on 2nd and 3rd rate prospects (Geno, Hackenburg and Petty) this could be the long term answer to the Jets' Quarterback conundrum.

 

7. Buccaneers - Bradley Chubb, CB, NC State

I have Bradley Chubb as the #1 player on my board and if he drops to #7 because of a run on Quarterbacks the Buccaneers would be jumping for joy and sprinting to the podium.

 

8. Bears - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

Chicago has to be pretty close to admitting that Kevin White is a bust. So three years after that mistake and with an improved defense and hopefully their franchise QB in place they go back to the receiver well for Ridley. A smooth route runner who can get separation he is a nice fit for Matt Nagy's offense.

 

9. 49ers - Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB, Alabama

Is Fitzpatrick a corner or a safety? The 49ers probably don't mind. They need playmakers in their defensive backfield and Fitzpatrick is the best player available at this stage.  

 

10. Raiders - Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

The Raiders need to draft defense, defense, and some more defense. Navarro Bowman was a short term solution at linebacker in 2017 but he is an impending FA. Roquan Smith is a top 10 player by my board and he has the speed that John Gruden loves.

 

11. Dolphins - Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

Another team with an obvious linebacker deficiency is the Miami Dolphins. They were fielding the professional corpse of Lawrence Timmons' career as a starter last season and Kiko Alonso's performance slumped after a decent 2016. Tremaine Edmunds is a name making a lot of noise in scouting circles early in this draft season and I can imagine the Dolphins being very happy to select him at this spot.  

 

12. Bengals - Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma

The Bengals offensive line is by far the weakest spot on this team. Their tackle play was so bad last year they ended up moving star guard Clint Boling out there to protect Dalton's blindside. There are three first round graded tackle in this class by my board but Orlando Brown Snr had so much success in the AFC North that it just feels right that his son ends up there too!

 

13. Redskins - Vita Vea, DT, Washington

The Redskins snagged dramatic faller Jonathan Allen in last year's draft to solidify the defensive tackle position but concerns about his ability to stay healthy seem well founded and I still believe a more disruptive penetrating tackle like Vea would make that defense more productive.

 

14. Packers - Marcus Davenport, OLB, UTSA

I feel like every year I mock a pass rusher to the Packers in the first round and they pick a defensive back instead. Davenport is raw but has a sky high ceiling and is a perfect fit for new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine's 3-4 defense.

 

15. Browns - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

The Browns have needs everywhere and could go in almost any direction at this spot. I have some concerns about Ward's ability to play outside in the NFL (size and ability to track the deep ball) but he is fast and smooth and Cleveland does have a need in the secondary.

 

16. Ravens - Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

The Ravens defense was pretty good last year, so they have to focus on upgrading the offense. Joe Flacco's best years were with a burner receiver on one side and a contested catch guy opposite him. Grabbing 6ft4 Courtland Sutton and retaining pending FA Mike Wallace would recreate that combination.

 

17. Chargers - Derwin James, S, Florida State

On paper the Chargers don't have many holes but their top safety last year was dust settle FA signing Tre Boston but he is a pending FA again and will want a significant salary bump so the Chargers could go to the draft for a replacement and Florida State's Derwin James is among the best players left at this point.

 

18. Seahawks - Isiah Wynn, OG, Georgia

I feel like I say the Seahawks should go offensive line every single draft and they normally trade back out of the first round altogether! They could go OT here but having traded for Duane Brown in season guard is probably a bigger need. Wynn played tackle in college and I am not totally convinced he can't do that in the NFL, but he has the versatility to play guard too.

 

19. Cowboys - Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

Dallas could go defensive back here but I think they need some interior pass rush whether DeMarcus Lawrence re-signs on the edge or not. Hurst was consistently getting into the backfield for the Wolverines and would upgrade the Cowboys' defensive line.

 

20. Lions -  Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

The Lions have a need at linebacker even though Jarrad Davis had a good rookie year in 2017. Tahir Whitehead is a FA and looks unlikely to be back. Matt Patricia has coordinated a New England defense featuring Brandon Spikes and then Dont'a Hightower at MLB because of the scheme familiarity Crimson Tide guys have from Saban to Belichick. For that reason another Alabama linebacker to make the calls in Patricia’s Detroit defense makes a lot of sense to me.

 

21. Colts - Mike Hughes, CB, UCF

The Colts were willing to give up #3 for two first round picks precisely because they need a lot of holes filling. One of those is unquestionably at corner. I have Mike Hughes higher on my board than Joshua Jackson and he would be an immediate starter.

 

22. Colts - Connor Williams, OT, Texas

Connor Williams' final year at Texas was not as impressive as his sophomore year in 2016 but if the Colts can get Andrew Luck back on the field they need to protect him. Williams could start at right tackle and eventually slide across to replace the overpaid Anthony Castonzo on the left side.

 

23. Rams - Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa

I get the feeling that teams might not be as high on Jackson as the talking heads are. I think he is a 2nd round talent but the Rams have a major need at corner - Tremaine Johnson is a FA and is not worth the money he wants to stay.

 

24. Panthers - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

During Marty Hurney's first spell as Panthers GM he had a couple of misses trying to find a franchise left tackle. The Panthers cannot keep trying to recycle other people's trash at the position though, they need to find their long term answer and McGlinchey is a fit.

 

25. Titans - Harold Landry, DE, Boston College

Mike Vrabel never coached directly for Belichick but he played for him and coached for Bill O'Brien. Harold Landry is such a Belichick like pick. Smart, high motor, from a north eastern school. He happens to fill a need for the Titans too.

 

26. Falcons - Da'ron Payne, DT, Alabama

Dontarie Poe filled a need as a FA signing for the Falcons in 2017, but he is an impending FA and they could still do with finding a long term answer as a dominating, run stuffing presence in the middle of that defensive line. If Payne is still on the board I think Atlanta would find him hard to pass up.

 

27. Saints - James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

A fast, shifty receiver who isn't the most polished route runner but just seems to find ways to get separation down the field? Sounds like a fit for the New Orleans Saints. Washington will replace what the Saints traded away when sending Brandin Cooks to New England last offseason.

 

28. Steelers - Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State

Pittsburgh has a very good roster almost top to bottom but a Quarterback who keeps flirting with retirement. Mason Rudolph is not universally loved but I am pretty high on him and I think he could slide right in to that Pittsburgh scheme which runs plenty of spread concepts after a year or two sitting behind Big Ben.

 

29. Jaguars - Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP

The Jags could go Quarterback here but we know Coughlin and Marrone want to run it every down because they told us they do. They got their bruiser at running back last year and now improving the push the offensive line gets to open holes for him should be the priority. Hernandez is a nasty, aggressive run blocker who is a perfect fit for Marrone's power scheme.

 

30. Vikings - Arden Key, DE, LSU

When I ask myself "which defensive minded Head Coach in the NFL takes a chance on talented but troubled?" I answer - Mike Zimmer.  Arden Key is probably the most talented prospect left on the board and Minnesota is always looking to add to its defensive strength.

 

31. Patriots - Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama

After watching Jacksonville and then Philadelphia tear up his defense in the AFC Championship Game and Superbowl I can imagine Bill Belichick believing he needs a tough tone setter. Enter Ronnie Harrison, who puts the hard into "hard hitting" at the safety position.

 

32. TRADE! Chargers - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville (Chargers get #32; Eagles get #48 and #82)

And the first round ends in intrigue as the Los Angeles Chargers jump up to take a shot on Louisville's Lamar Jackson. Philadelphia feels good enough about its World Champion roster to slide back and the Chargers finally have a succession plan to Philip Rivers.

 

 

Okay guys.... flame away.  

 

Thats a lot of work gunner, I hope we take Mayfield in this scenario, I don't like Rosen when the play breaks down and his desire for the game.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Here it is Mock Draft 2018 version 1.0. Before people start debating about the trade values…. They are all broadly in line with the Jimmy Johnson chart but amended a little bit to take into account the Rich Hill chart which has re-assigned pick values by tracking actual deals that have happened in recent years (and which at least a few teams have hinted that they are now using).

 

1. Browns - Sam Darnold, QB, USC

After trading out of spots where Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson were taken in the last two drafts the Browns have gone back to a traditional football savvy GM in John Dorsey. He knows you need a QB to win in the NFL and Sam Darnold seems to fit his profile of what one looks like.

 

2. Giants - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

I firmly believe the Giants are riding with Eli at QB for now. They are a trade back candidate at this spot but I feel like they don't want to move down as far as the likely trade up candidates would require because they have a desperate need at RB and Barkley is a potential elite talent.

 

3. TRADE! Bills - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA (Bills get #3 & 6th Rounder; Colts get #21, #22, #53, 2018 4th rounder and 2019 2nd rounder)

There are two teams in this draft publicly making noises about being aggressive at QB. The first of those, the Buffalo Bills, swing and swing big to take a shot on Josh Rosen. They are clearly ready to move on from Tyrod Taylor and hope to finally end 22 years of searching for the heir to Jim Kelly.

Okay guys.... flame away.  

 

You get no flaming from me on this.  I would be enchanted.

[John from Riverside]

Definately could live with this draft

 

I assume we would not start Josh right away even if it was as soon as later into the 1st season.

 

Who is our placeholder qb?

[Reed83HOF]

5 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

Definately could live with this draft

 

I assume we would not start Josh right away even if it was as soon as later into the 1st season.

 

Who is our placeholder qb?

Fitzy

[Direhard Fan]

You don't have another QB going before 21st.  Why not wait until than and keep our other picks?  I like staying and use the picks to build the line.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 hour ago, CuddyDark said:

I personally don't like Josh Rosen. He reminds me of Rob Johnson. I hope he goes #1 so we can't have a shot at him. I'm not against trading up but 3 picks within the top 50 is a lot to give unless it's a Manning, Luck type situation and I don't believe Rosen is that. I think he's at best Matt Ryan.

Do you know him personally?

[Bangarang]

15 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

Do you know him personally?

 

Hes from California. What more do you need to prove he is Rob Johnson!?

[Royale with Cheese]

26 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Hes from California. What more do you need to prove he is Rob Johnson!?

 

Rob Johnson and Charles Manson.  Just nothing good comes out of California.

[John from Riverside]

Heeyyyyyyy

[SoCal Deek]

In short, if the Bills can move up and get the #2 QB in this year's draft they more or less have to do it. Period.  Of course to do it, they need a willing partner. And maybe Indy is indeed that partner. Hard to believe that they're going to kick Luck to the curb just a few years after having done the same with Manning....only to see Peyton win the Super Bowl with another team. The Colts management would never hear the end of it!

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

thats the problem  IF  

The "what if" it doesn't work out argument makes no sense to me. It doesn't matter what position you draft for there is a chance that the selection won't work out. No one is suggesting that you make a pick simply because there is a desperate need to fill that position. You do your research and evaluation and use some common sense and good judgment when making a pick. It  would makes sense to use a lot of assets to move up for Rosen, Mayfield or Darnold. It wouldn't  make sense to use the same amount of assets to move up to select Rudolph. As it stands the Bills don't have a franchise qb. They haven't had one for nearly a quarter century. Being passive is not a solution as much as it is the problem. Again, don't fear failure----pursue success!

[John from Riverside]

7 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The "what if" it doesn't work out argument makes no sense to me. It doesn't matter what position you draft for there is a chance that the selection won't work out. No one is suggesting that you make a pick simply because there is a desperate need to fill that position. You do your research and evaluation and use some common sense and good judgment when making a pick. It  would makes sense to use a lot of assets to move up for Rosen, Mayfield or Darnold. It wouldn't  make sense to use the same amount of assets to move up to select Rudolph. As it stands the Bills don't have a franchise qb. They haven't had one for nearly a quarter century. Being passive is not a solution as much as it is the problem. Again, don't fear failure----pursue success!

Its a gamble

But it is one I would like to see them take.

[JohnC]

12 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

Its a gamble

But it is one I would like to see them take.

You and I are riding the same horse. 

[billykay]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is an atheist who dislikes Trump.... two huge ticks in the box if I was evaluating on personality (I am not).  

Are these " ticks " positive or negative ?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

25 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The "what if" it doesn't work out argument makes no sense to me. It doesn't matter what position you draft for there is a chance that the selection won't work out. No one is suggesting that you make a pick simply because there is a desperate need to fill that position. You do your research and evaluation and use some common sense and good judgment when making a pick. It  would makes sense to use a lot of assets to move up for Rosen, Mayfield or Darnold. It wouldn't  make sense to use the same amount of assets to move up to select Rudolph. As it stands the Bills don't have a franchise qb. They haven't had one for nearly a quarter century. Being passive is not a solution as much as it is the problem. Again, don't fear failure----pursue success!

 

THIS THIS A THOUSAND TIMES THIS.