Gunner's 2018 Mock Draft UPDATED - Final version on Page 6

[BringBackOrton]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

How the hell did that happen??

You saw the fluidity of those hips and the rest was history.

[boyst]

On 2/20/2018 at 9:13 AM, Teddy KGB said:

 

Start him week 1.   Don’t need a placeholder.  

 

 

 

Like Tom Brady, Lebron, Rogers, and Co ? 

 

Oh no.  

bradyd didnot go in to the NFL thinking of his dream work after playing.  Nor did James. Nor did James

 

Rosens ass needs to dream of football. Not his bull **** after football. We are drafting a football player. A team wannts to draft a player, not a SJW or some self righteous prick thinking he will make a difference in the world other than playing football

[wppete]

It’s very expensive but I would love to have Josh Rosen as The Bills QB. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 2/19/2018 at 2:36 PM, JohnC said:

The "what if" it doesn't work out argument makes no sense to me. It doesn't matter what position you draft for there is a chance that the selection won't work out. No one is suggesting that you make a pick simply because there is a desperate need to fill that position. You do your research and evaluation and use some common sense and good judgment when making a pick. It  would makes sense to use a lot of assets to move up for Rosen, Mayfield or Darnold. It wouldn't  make sense to use the same amount of assets to move up to select Rudolph. As it stands the Bills don't have a franchise qb. They haven't had one for nearly a quarter century. Being passive is not a solution as much as it is the problem. Again, don't fear failure----pursue success!

Risk versus Reward.  I get that.  

 

My prior was not an argument but a statement.  The draft is truly  hit or miss event.  Some team with strike gold, many others can strike out.  IF its bad then I'd rather they lose as little as possible and not over-reach.  

 

If you come out of this draft with a long term franchise qb nothing is too much. Ask the Rams or the Eagles if they paid too much for their respective franchise qbs? The Bills have been meandering on the qb issue for a long time. It's time to do what has to be done to get the job accomplished. Don't fear failure----pursue success. 

Rumor has it he has very wet lips. You don't want his lips anywhere near your ears. Just too sloppy!

 

What's the "myth" about SoCal QB's?  And how well does it hold up? 

Not arguing here, asking to be reminded. 

[elltrain22]

Any mock where we move up for the QB is a great mock draft, but it's especially great when we draft Rosen

[JohnC]

26 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

What's the "myth" about SoCal QB's?  And how well does it hold up? 

Not arguing here, asking to be reminded. 

From the Bills perspective the myth isn't about where a prospect plays. The issue is does the prospect's talents project to the pro game. When you watch Darnold compared to Mayfield and even Rosen there is an uneven nature to his game. You see him make careless throws and turnovers. And you also see him follow up those bonehead plays with impressive plays. Ideally, he should have stayed in school another year and worked on his game. But the economics of the real world intruded on the college care free life and partying with voluptuous cheerleaders.

 

It's certainly not a secret that the franchise has put a great deal of emphasis on scouting qbs. If you are expecting a guarantee that the evaluations are going to be scientifically accurate then you are in the wrong business. You do you due diligence and then make the best decision you can. Can you make a big mistake that sets the franchise back? Of course you can. You can also make crushing  mistakes for the receiver, OT, running back positions. The reality of the NFL is that having a good franchise qb is one of the most determining factors for success. It isn't the only factor but without question the most influential factor. It's simply time to take the calculated risk to do what you have to do to succeed.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

From the Bills perspective the myth isn't about where a prospect plays. The issue is does the prospect's talents project to the pro game. When you watch Darnold compared to Mayfield and even Rosen there is an uneven nature to his game. You see him make careless throws and turnovers. And you also see him follow up those bonehead plays with impressive plays. Ideally, he should have stayed in school another year and worked on his game. But the economics of the real world intruded on the college care free life and partying with voluptuous cheerleaders.

 

It's certainly not a secret that the franchise has put a great deal of emphasis on scouting qbs. If you are expecting a guarantee that the evaluations are going to be scientifically accurate then you are in the wrong business. You do you due diligence and then make the best decision you can. Can you make a big mistake that sets the franchise back? Of course you can. You can also make crushing  mistakes for the receiver, OT, running back positions. The reality of the NFL is that having a good franchise qb is one of the most determining factors for success. It isn't the only factor but without question the most influential factor. It's simply time to take the calculated risk to do what you have to do to succeed.  

Sorry I was unclear..... 

 

Excluding this draft - What is the "story" on Southern California QB's who then have to play in the crappy NE weather etc etc.   

I looked myself.  thanks 

Sorry SoCal story: Abysmal run of QBs from region has NFL ...

 

[section122]

3 hours ago, Boyst62 said:

bradyd didnot go in to the NFL thinking of his dream work after playing.  Nor did James. Nor did James

 

Rosens ass needs to dream of football. Not his bull **** after football. We are drafting a football player. A team wannts to draft a player, not a SJW or some self righteous prick thinking he will make a difference in the world other than playing football

 

Yeah he should just shut up and dribble!

[#34fan]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

A support system for a QB without a QB is like an umbilical cord with no fetus. 

 

You can build a support system anytime. The moments when you have a chance to bring in a really good QB are very few and far between and must be treasured and taken advantage of.

 

The support system isn't the umbilical cord, -it's the womb... For years, OBD's has been mal-formed leading to multiple miscarriages at QB.

 

The good news is that we have the opportunity to fix what's wrong every year.   Create an environment where a fetal QB can grow into a franchise baby, and w'ere there!

 

Am I right? -Or did the conversation get weird for absolutely no reason?

 

 

[#34fan]

On ‎2‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 1:21 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

I think if you go Rosen you sign Fitz as the backup believing the rookie starts. If he isn't quite ready and Fitz needs to go 2-2 the first month no disaster. 

 

I'd actually love Fitz back. Of all the not good enough QBs we have had if I was a homer for any of them it was Fitzy. A three year contract that takes him to 38 and has very little dead money after 2018 to backup Josh Rosen.... I could live with that.

 

On ‎2‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 2:29 PM, John from Riverside said:

I would totally be ok with Fitz as a backup

 

Fitz must have a secret society of loyal followers on this board awaiting his triumphant return.

 

Pass.

 

Everywhere Fitz lands the QB goes down for some reason and he ends up starting.

 

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

My updated v2.0 and FINAL version for 2018 is here.  Enjoy the 1st round everyone!!

 

1. Browns - Sam Darnold, QB, USC

Pick unchanged

After trading out of spots where Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson were taken in the last two drafts the Browns simply have to go Quarterback at #1 and then see where the chips land at #4. Josh Allen here would not shock me but I believe Sam Darnold is their guy. 

 

2. Giants - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Pick unchanged

I still firmly believe the Giants are riding with Eli at QB for now and that they don't want to move down as far as the likely trade up candidates would require because they have a desperate need at RB and Barkley is a potential elite talent.

 

3. Jets - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

Previously Baker Mayfield at #6

The smart money seems to be on the Jets taking Mayfield if available at #3.... but I just can't shake from my mind a report that they were one of the very first teams on the Josh Allen case early in the 2016 season. I think this might have been the plan for more than a year for Gang Green. 

 

4. Browns – Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

Previously Denzel Ward at #15

The Browns could still trade this pick but if they are really in the business of trying to add elite talent then they should select Chubb who is the #1 overall player on my board and start him opposite Myles Garrett to give them a pass rush with the potential to strike fear into AFC North Quarterbacks. 

 

5. Broncos - Quenten Nelson, G, Notre Dame

Pick unchanged

I have found Denver hard to get a read on this offseason but the fact that Elway has made noises about being willing to trade back suggests they are not targeting a Quarterback. Nelson is considered by many to be the safest prospect in this draft and the Broncos O-Line still needs upgrading.

 

6. TRADE! Bills – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA  (Colts get #12 & #22; Bills get #6 & #67)

Pick unchanged  

The Bills did not make the trade to #3 that I mocked in version 1, but maybe they still do a deal with the Colts to get up to #6. I think the Bills will trade up and will pick one of the two Joshes – in this scenario Rosen is the guy who heads to Buffalo.

 

7. Buccaneers – Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S, Alabama

Previously Bradley Chubb

The Buccaneers have two major needs – offensive line and defensive backfield. There is no offensive lineman here who fits so the Buccaneers take Fitzpatrick who would be an instant upgrade to their secondary. 

 

8. Bears – Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

Previously Calvin Ridley

Chicago has built a talented young defense in recent years that could be ready to take a major step forward in 2018. Tremaine Edmunds would complete their front 7 and allow them to use the rest of their draft resources on offense.

 

9. 49ers – Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

Previously Minkah Fitzpatrick

The 49ers could be tempted to go with a linebacker at this spot given Reuben Foster’s disciplinary issues but this class is deep at the position and far less deep at corner. Lining Denzel Ward up across from Richard Sherman would be a huge upgrade from the corner play they had in 2017.    

 

10. Raiders – Derwin James, S, Florida State

Previously Roquan Smith

The Raiders need to draft defense, defense, and some more defense. They could start by adding Derwin James who is not only the best pure safety in this class but also has the flexibility and versatility to play nickel, dime, and even some corner in a pinch. 

 

11. Dolphins – Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Previously Tremaine Edmunds

I don’t think the Dolphins are desperate to draft a Quarterback. I do think they desperately want Baker Mayfield. If he fell to them here he would be the pick. 

 

12. (From Bills) Colts – Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

Previously Mike Hughes at #21

The Colts started the job of rebuilding the defense last season with Malik Hooker prior to his injury but their linebackers are still major weakness and Roquan Smith is the best player left on the board.     

 

13. Redskins - Vita Vea, DT, Washington

Pick unchanged

The Redskins snagged dramatic faller Jonathan Allen in last year's draft to solidify the defensive tackle position but concerns about his ability to stay healthy seem well founded and I still believe a more disruptive penetrating tackle like Vea would make that defense more productive.

 

14. Packers - Marcus Davenport, OLB, UTSA

Pick unchanged

I feel like every year I mock a pass rusher to the Packers in the first round and they pick a defensive back instead. Davenport is raw but has a sky high ceiling and is a perfect fit for new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine's 3-4 defense.

 

15. Cardinals – Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Previously Josh Allen at #4

I think the Cardinals would love to trade up for a Quarterback but as things stand they only have 4 picks in this draft and trading up would mean leaving themselves with a similarly paltry haul in 2019. Therefore I think they sit tight and take the guy who falls to them at #15.  In this case that is Lamar Jackson. 

 

16. Ravens – Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

Previously Courtland Sutton, SMU

It is no secret that the Ravens lack offensive weapons for Joe Flacco. They hold an interest in free agent Dez Bryant but so far no agreement has been reached. Ozzie Newsome is never shy about selecting an Alabama player so Ridley makes a lot of sense here.   

 

17. Chargers – Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

Previously Derwin James

It is hard to pick too many holes in the Chargers’ roster but their left tackle is the oft-injured Russell Okung and his contract is pretty easy to get out from under after the 2018 season.  McGlinchey could play on the right side as a rookie and then flip to the blindside if Okung is cut next spring. 

 

18. Seahawks - Isiah Wynn, OG, Georgia

Pick unchanged

I feel like I say the Seahawks should go offensive line every single draft and they normally trade back out of the first round altogether! They could go OT here but having traded for Duane Brown in season guard is probably a bigger need. Wynn played tackle in college and I am not totally convinced he can't do that in the NFL, but he has the versatility to play guard too.

 

19. Cowboys – Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State

Previously Maurice Hurst

The Dallas roster could stand to be improved at a number of spots but their linebacker depth is particularly thin. Jaylon Smith started 6 games last year on the comeback trail from serious injury and Sean Lee is hurt more than he is healthy. Vander Esch would be a perfect scheme fit and immediately upgrade that unit. 

 

20. TRADE! Patriots – Connor Williams, OT, Texas (Lions get #23 & #95; Patriots get #20)

Previously Josh Jackson to the Rams at #23

The Patriots need a young offensive tackle to groom as Nate Solder’s replacement. Conscious that Cincinnati and Indianapolis are about to go on the clock, also with needs at the position, Bill Belichick swings a deal with former Pats staffers Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia to jump up three spots for Connor Williams. 

 

21. Bengals – James Daniels, C, Iowa

Previously Orlando Brown at #12

The Bengals offensive line was a mess last season and while their smart trade for Cordy Glenn from Buffalo solidifies the left tackle spot they still need help inside. James Daniels is the best pure center in the draft and a day 1 starter. 

 

22. Colts – Mike Hughes, CB, UCF

Previously Connor Williams

The defensive rebuild in Indy goes on. Quincy Wilson had some ups and downs at corner as a rookie but regardless they need someone to play across from him. Hughes has good ball skills and will be a playmaker for the Colts. 

 

23. (From Patriots) Lions – Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville

Previously Rashaan Evans

Jaire Alexander has risen throughout this draft process and feels to me like an excellent fit for Matt Patricia’s defense. It is position of need for the Lions too. 

 

24. Panthers – Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

Previously Mike McGlinchey

The Panthers lost Star Lotuleie to the Buffalo Bills in free agency and while they brought Dontari Poe across from Atlanta to replace him that is only a short term measure and Payne has the potential to be a longer term solution. 

 

25. Titans - Harold Landry, DE, Boston College

Pick unchanged

Mike Vrabel never coached directly for Belichick but he played for him and coached for Bill O'Brien. Harold Landry is such a Belichick like pick. Smart, high motor, from a north eastern school. He happens to fill a need for the Titans too.

 

26. Falcons – Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

Previously Da’Ron Payne

Dontarie Poe left the Falcons in free agency and I think they would like to upgrade their defensive line in any event. Bryan is still raw as a prospect but he has a lot of upside and would bring a more dynamic and athletic playing still to the Atlanta defensive front. 

 

27. Saints – Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

Previously James Washington

The Saints defense was one of the stories of 2017 as a good rookie class turned things around and allowed New Orleans to return to the playoffs. The linebacking unit was still a weak spot though and Evans would be an instant upgrade.   

 

28. Steelers - Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State

Pick unchanged

Pittsburgh has a very good roster almost top to bottom but a Quarterback who keeps flirting with retirement. Mason Rudolph is not universally loved but I am pretty high on him and I think he could slide right in to that Pittsburgh scheme which runs plenty of spread concepts after a year or two sitting behind Big Ben.

 

29. Jaguars - Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP

Pick unchanged

The Jags could go Quarterback here but we know Coughlin and Marrone want to run it every down because they told us they do. They got their bruiser at running back last year and now improving the push the offensive line gets to open holes for him should be the priority. Hernandez is a nasty, aggressive run blocker who is a perfect fit for Marrone's power scheme.

 

30. TRADE! Chiefs – Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa (Vikings get #54, #78 & 2019 2^nd rounder; Chiefs get #30)

Previously Arden Key to the Vikings

The Vikings are a prime trade back candidate here at #30 and there is lots of smoke about the Chiefs trying to move back into the first round. Trading away Marcus Peters was about locker room fit rather than production or need and I suspect they are trying to get up to snag a replacement. Jackson would be very much in play in this scenario. 

 

31. Patriots – Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State

Previously Ronnie Harrison

The Gronkowski retirement rumours will not go away and even before the Gronk and Hernandez era the Patriots with Brady at Quarterback had always been an offense that featured a Tight End in the passing game. Gesicki has some work to do on his run blocking but he is a dynamic pass catching threat, especially in the redzone.

 

32. Philadelphia Eagles – Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

Previously Lamar Jackson to the Chargers

The Eagles traded for Jay Ajayi in season to boost their run game but he only has a year left on his deal and LeGarrette Blount has moved on. Guice would be part of a longer term solution at the position for the world champions. 

 

[YoloinOhio]

Not buying the Mayfield stuff??

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

Not buying the Mayfield stuff??

 

Ha... I have no idea what the Browns are going to do.  I finished this yesterday before some of the latest Mayfield reports - it just took a while to post because I was not feeling well yesterday evening. I decided to stick to my guns because once you change the 1st pick the whole thing needs re-writing!

[thebandit27]

Nice work Gunner.  Really well done as always.

 

We have a lot of the same guys in the same general range.  Enjoy the draft tonight after all of your hard work this offseason!

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Nice work Gunner.  Really well done as always.

 

We have a lot of the same guys in the same general range.  Enjoy the draft tonight after all of your hard work this offseason!

 

I was so sick yesterday and I honestly think it was draft exhaustion...... god knows how Brandon Beane feels?!?!  Luckily I feel a million times better today and am looking forward to it. 

 

Oh and for all the "you guys never admit when you are wrong" folks.... check back tomorrow morning when as part of my Round 1 roundup I will score my Mock against the reality.