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Arden Key- Do we roll the dice on him?


NewEra

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Not really a McDermott type but he’s a great talent.  Character issues pushing him down the draft boards.  Is he this years edge rusher version of Robert Nkimdiche?  Could he play OLB in a 4-3 or strictly a DE?  I’m assuming DE but at 240 is he too light? I’m sure we’d get him up to 255 or so but could he hold up vs the run?  

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14 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Not really a McDermott type but he’s a great talent.  Character issues pushing him down the draft boards.  Is he this years edge rusher version of Robert Nkimdiche?  Could he play OLB in a 4-3 or strictly a DE?  I’m assuming DE but at 240 is he too light? I’m sure we’d get him up to 255 or so but could he hold up vs the run?  

 

Sounds like Aaron Maybin weight...but I don't know much about the guy either.

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1 hour ago, ndirish1978 said:

DE should not be in our top 5 priorities, which should be, in order:

 

1- QB

2- QB

3- DT

4 - LB

5 - RT

 

Since Key is likely to be a 1st rd pick, I'd have to say no. 

RT?  It’s already a foregone conclusion that Glenn is gone?  Right guard, for sure.  Needed desperately 

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2 hours ago, mob16151 said:

Kind of reminds me of Micheal Sam as a prospect.

 

 

Meaning I don't think he's super athletic,and don't think he's going to be any good as a pro......that is all.

Reminds me a little of Quinton Coples. Has all the traits to be a monster talent, just not sure he’s ready for the next level

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3 hours ago, NewEra said:

Not really a McDermott type but he’s a great talent.  Character issues pushing him down the draft boards.  Is he this years edge rusher version of Robert Nkimdiche?  Could he play OLB in a 4-3 or strictly a DE?  I’m assuming DE but at 240 is he too light? I’m sure we’d get him up to 255 or so but could he hold up vs the run?  

 

 

Character issues and lacks a position? Not a great job selling him.

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Never on a McDermott team.  I am thinking Sam Hubbard is high on our board

2 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

DE should not be in our top 5 priorities, which should be, in order:

 

1- QB

2- QB

3- DT

4 - LB

5 - RT

 

 

1a-qb

1a-pass rushers

2-DT

3-LBers

4-WR

5-G

6-CB

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25 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

 

Character issues and lacks a position? Not a great job selling him.

I’m not really in the business of selling.  Just discussing.  Know anything else about him?  I just remember watching him prior to this season thinking he’d be a top 10 pick. While DE isn’t our number 1 priority, if we go the route of QB in free agency we may not be selecting a qb with our first couple picks. Opening the door for BPA.  Any chance he’s the BPA?  If he’s that much of a character concern maybe he’ll slip to rd 2

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8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m not really in the business of selling.  Just discussing.  Know anything else about him?  I just remember watching him prior to this season thinking he’d be a top 10 pick. While DE isn’t our number 1 priority, if we go the route of QB in free agency we may not be selecting a qb with our first couple picks. Opening the door for BPA.  Any chance he’s the BPA?  If he’s that much of a character concern maybe he’ll slip to rd 2

 

I just thought it amusing. Clearly you like the guy or you wouldn’t have brought him up, but it was all cons and no positives. Most folks probably aren’t super familiar so your post probably reads as “this guys trouble and has no position, think we should spend a high pick on him?!?”

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4 hours ago, BringBackFergy said:

No thanks. He sounds like a National Geographic photographer. “Here’s a photo of a pygmy colony with roasted boar in the foreground and bride dressed in bamboo gown...Photo credit: Arden Key”

 

Haha

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I’m an LSU fan and season ticket holder and I’ll tell you straight up, absolutely not! I have no problem talking up LSU players, but Key will be a bust in the NFL. Aside from the character issues, Key has always drawn comparisons to former Tiger Barkevious Mingo. Mingo hasn’t been that great in the NFL, and Key never amounted to half the player that Mingo was.

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2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

 

I just thought it amusing. Clearly you like the guy or you wouldn’t have brought him up, but it was all cons and no positives. Most folks probably aren’t super familiar so your post probably reads as “this guys trouble and has no position, think we should spend a high pick on him?!?”

 

Of the 3 times I saw him play, he looked like a physical freak all 3 times.  That’s literally all I know about him.  Haven’t watched any tape. That’s why I created this thread.  To discuss and find out more about him from those that know more than I do (which is most of you guys)

1 hour ago, CajunBillsBacker said:

I’m an LSU fan and season ticket holder and I’ll tell you straight up, absolutely not! I have no problem talking up LSU players, but Key will be a bust in the NFL. Aside from the character issues, Key has always drawn comparisons to former Tiger Barkevious Mingo. Mingo hasn’t been that great in the NFL, and Key never amounted to half the player that Mingo was.

Thanks for the feedback.  That’s what I was worried about.  Would you take him in rd 2?  Seems like there might be a chance he falls to us there (or we trade up, we like to trade)

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2 hours ago, CajunBillsBacker said:

I’m an LSU fan and season ticket holder and I’ll tell you straight up, absolutely not! I have no problem talking up LSU players, but Key will be a bust in the NFL. Aside from the character issues, Key has always drawn comparisons to former Tiger Barkevious Mingo. Mingo hasn’t been that great in the NFL, and Key never amounted to half the player that Mingo was.

Good to see you are still around. :thumbsup:

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8 hours ago, NewEra said:

Thanks for the feedback.  That’s what I was worried about.  Would you take him in rd 2?  Seems like there might be a chance he falls to us there (or we trade up, we like to trade)

It’s hard to say about round 2 also to be honest. I think I’d rather someone else take that chance.

Key was a great pass rusher when he was undersized. But his undersized is too small to be a DE in the NFL. He’d have to be an OLB.

He spent all of last offseason in drug rehab and gained some weight. Some good weight, some bad weight. When he came back he wasn’t the same player at all. He was extremely slow. All last season he had clearly checked out and wasn’t the same player, I think he still has some personal stuff going on off the field if you know what I mean.

7 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

Good to see you are still around. :thumbsup:

You too Mark! Still out there in San Jose I’m assuming?

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9 hours ago, CajunBillsBacker said:

I’m an LSU fan and season ticket holder and I’ll tell you straight up, absolutely not! I have no problem talking up LSU players, but Key will be a bust in the NFL. Aside from the character issues, Key has always drawn comparisons to former Tiger Barkevious Mingo. Mingo hasn’t been that great in the NFL, and Key never amounted to half the player that Mingo was.

 

Im a LSU fan and season TV watcher, what character issues? 1/2 the player Mingo was? Key IMO was twice the player Mingo ever was and thats being generous for me, I always viewed Key as what Mingo would have been had he had any actual football IQ or been an actual football player, not an athlete playing football, and Key IMO is still much better football player and its not close in Keys favor. 

 

Key was suspended for violating team rules in 2016 for the A&M game and listening to his father talk, let his success go to his head and took a leave of absence to stay with his mother and get his priorities straight (IMO) last spring. I think the character issues are over blown and mostly due to people in the know not sharing the reasoning, IMO getting your $h!t together is not a character issue. Rumors of drug rehab??

 

He was a beast in 2016, top 5 pick was the rightful talk after the season at about 240 pounds, #1 pick by some based on the talent and production, IMO he has more heart and passion with the talent to match Myles Garrett. He was a pass rushing dream come true, length, explosiveness, moves, counter moves, football IQ, acceleration off the line, etc. The shoulder injury/surgery was put on hold until he got his head screwed on straight and that cost him heading into this season. He gained weight in the offseason (270ish pounds) to bulk up or maybe a lack of conditioning and moms home cooking? and that cost him with his lack of conditioning at the beginning of the season coupled with his recovering from labrum surgery, once he lost a little weight (20 pounds?) and got into football shape I thought he started playing well again, see the Auburn game. This to me is more of an issue, gaining all that weight and the reasoning behind it, along with the medical but I dont see those as career altering injuries. 

 

Having said that, Im not sure he's the ideal fit for what McD looks for in a DE, but if he can stay around 250 like he got to around the Auburn game, IMO he'd be worthy risk with either 21 or 22 in the first if they want to get 4 man pressures, as he is also good at disengaging from tackles and playing run D. 

 

My .02 fwiw...

Edited by P51
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2 hours ago, CajunBillsBacker said:

You too Mark! Still out there in San Jose I’m assuming?

Yes I am.

 

I'll be at the draft in Dallas/Arlington, and I'm planning on going to Buffalo for the first time to see the Bills play at home, next season.

 

You should join in on the posts in the college football forum, now that it's more visible on TBD.

 

Hope all is well with you in Louisiana.

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16 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

DE should not be in our top 5 priorities, which should be, in order:

 

1- QB

2- QB

3- DT

4 - LB

5 - RT

 

Since Key is likely to be a 1st rd pick, I'd have to say no. 

 

If we don't trade Glenn RT drops way down. RG and OL Depth is a huge need still though. Richie and Wood are agining. We need 2 new DT and at least 2 if not 3 LB.  I would be fine with a pass rusher in the first 4 picks. 

 

Bills also need a young CB in the event we don't resign Gaines, or if we do, for when he goes down. 

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