Reasons The Drought Has Continued Excluding The Bills Themselves

[corta765]

Obviously the Bills have done a spectacular job at creating their own barriers so they have missed the playoffs for 17 straight years pushing 18 now. That said I wanted to lay out some factors that are not the Bills fault that have helped to impede the Bills making the playoffs during this time:

NFL's shift to making the league a QB driven league to a potentially unhealthy point:

One of my majors gripes as a football fan in general is how the game has drastically changed where QB's are the focus to a point the team doesn't matter. The rule changes in 03, 04, 07, & 10 gave QB's a significant advantage that still hasn't been accounted for. Back before the rule changes it was possible to have a team was a decent defense and running game make the playoffs and win a round even if the QB was dog crap. QB play still determined the outcome for Super Bowls and you generally need a top QB to win a SB unless your defense is DEN or SEA like, but the league use to emphasize the rest of the team far more. These days if you hit a QB a split second late high its a penalty, low its a penalty, intentional grounding is almost never called anymore, and WRs are protected by the rules more making it easier for QBs to either get them the ball or draw a penalty. You could draw back some of these rules a bit where player safety is still prioritized first but the defense has a better shot. Additionally if QB's are getting the ball out faster even just to throw it away start enforcing intentional grounding more. It's kind of insane the current rules that if you throw the ball remotely near a player when chased it isn't even questioned as illegal.

 

New England Patriots:

Fair or not the Bills have been stuck with the best dynasty run potentially ever. Swing a game or two here in just a few seasons and the Bills probably sneak in at 9-7 or 10-6. The record vs NE is incredible and its gotten to the point of almost always being a guaranteed loss. If your routinely starting the season 0-2 that is a hard place to come from.

 

Number of NFL Teams:

When the NFL expanded the playoffs to add the 6th WC spot they did so because the percentage of teams that make the playoffs was in the low 30% range. When they added the 6th spot they did so because it made it where around 44% of the league made the playoffs increasing competition and giving everyone a better chance. Since the 90s expansion though that number has reverted back down to 37.5%. Had another spot been open the odds favor that one of the seasons the Bills were 9-7 or potentially couldve gone 9-7 they sneak in. Not the best situation for BUF to make the playoffs but it would've killed the drought. Additionally with more NFL teams there is less high end talent and good QB's available for teams to have making it even more difficult to find and field a strong roster.

 

NFL Rules:

During the drought the Bills have caught the poor side of some officiating that has blown back in our face. None looms larger then the home opener loss to the Jaguars in 04 where we knocked the Jags TE out of bounds and were penalized at the time because we impeded his ability to catch the ball. TD Jags and loss BUF. What sucks is that rule no longer exists and had the Bills won they would've made the playoffs. Continuing the them of QB's and the Patriots, the Bills got the brunt of the rule changes that enhanced QB play with Brady. The best way to beat him is to hit him a lot and jam his WR's. Well guess what the NFL alters that and makes both far harder.

 

Bad luck despite 5-1 or 5-2 starts:

Statistically if you start 5-1 or 5-2 you have about a 73% chance of making the playoffs. If your 5-1 you don't even need to be above .500 just go 5-5 and your most likely making it. The Bills 3 separate times have defied odds drastically in their favor to a maddening level. In the end this does fall back on them, but fans have gotten to the point we are more terrified at 5-1 or 5-2 then excited. That's insane haha

 

[GoBills808]

Points 2 and 5 are right on. Current Bills fans are stuck in a spectacularly unlucky period of footballtime, particularly in the AFCE. The burden of having a team like the Pats in your division can't be understated, it colors the entire year's outlook and gives you very little margin for error...and nobody errs like us.

[mjt328]

Disagree on your first point.  The NFL has been about the quarterback first for a very long time.  Over the last 30 Super Bowls, the following 5 quarterbacks have accounted for 23 of the AFC appearances:  John Elway, Jim Kelly, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady

 

 

The Patriots issue is bigger than almost anyone considers though. 

If it wasn't for never making the playoffs in 17 years, the Bills are roughly in the same boat as several other AFC teams.  Have teams like the Dolphins, Jets, Bengals, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Texans, Raiders been THAT much better over the last 15-20 years?  Not really.  And without doing the math, I would bet the Bills have a better overall winning record than a good chunk of those teams during the drought.  Not very many teams have been true Super Bowl contenders over the last two decades.  What sets us apart is the drought, and the Patriots are a good reason why we can't get that extra 1-2 wins each season and push ourselves into a wild card spot.

 

 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Point 1 about the QB/Passing game is spot on! They have overplayed that one to a point that has messed up the balance. 

Edited December 9, 2017 by horned dogs

[Success]

The Pats obstacle is more clear than ever this year given how the schedule played out.  A week ago we were in the 6 spot - but having to play that team twice put us at such a disadvantage.

[BuffaloBill]

Brady and the Cheats have been huge in the drought.  Most seasons they have owned both games so to get in the Bills have had to win 10 of the remaining 14 which has been a tall order.

[freeagentqb]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

Brady and the Cheats have been huge in the drought.  Most seasons they have owned both games so to get in the Bills have had to win 10 of the remaining 14 which has been a tall order.

 

Well, that really puts it into perspective.  Never thought of it that way.  Winning 10 of 14 is a big deal.

[Happy]

With regards to point 1, I'm not sure if a 2000 Ravens or 2003 Bucs team could win or even get to a SB today with a game manager as QB; as great as their defenses were.  That's how much the NFL has overweighted the QB position and why many here consider it worth while spending a lot of draft capital to get a franchise QB.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...organizational misfits in positions unqualified for and/or people beyond their prime in key decision making positions based on trust over 17 years.....all of which translated into coaching hires to produce a sub standard product on the field...  Cliff Notes version IMO....you know the details..........

[machine gun kelly]

Good points from OP,  but every fan in the NFL thinks their team gets jobbed in penalties.  Just listen to NFLR as well as injuries.  We just need a better team.  Bottom line. 

 

From QB on down.  I think if we had a decent QB and relatively productive offense, this defense would look better, but they are always on the field.  They get worn out.

[Patrick Duffy]

It's the CURSE man!! The curse!

[st pete gogolak]

Point two is really a good point.  I've seen many commentators talk about how easy NE has had it over the years because of the weakness of the other teams in their division.  But look at it from the other side.  If Miami, Bills and Jets are starting off the year 0-2, chances of making the playoffs are slim to none and that's been borne out over the last seventeen years.

[The Frankish Reich]

Some very good points.  But I do want to take issue with one of them, regarding being in the Pats' division. Since the Bills playoff drought began:

- Dolphins: 4 playoff appearances - 2000, 2001, 2008, 2016

- Jets: 6 playoff appearances - 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2010

 

So in those 17 seasons, the Dolphins have made the playoffs in 23.5% of the seasons. Jets? 35% of the time.  All told, that's a combined 29% of the time. Hardly outrageously low given that, as the OP pointed out, in any given year 37.5% of teams make the playoffs. 

 

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

Disagree on your first point.  The NFL has been about the quarterback first for a very long time.  Over the last 30 Super Bowls, the following 5 quarterbacks have accounted for 23 of the AFC appearances:  John Elway, Jim Kelly, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady

 

 

The Patriots issue is bigger than almost anyone considers though. 

If it wasn't for never making the playoffs in 17 years, the Bills are roughly in the same boat as several other AFC teams.  Have teams like the Dolphins, Jets, Bengals, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Texans, Raiders been THAT much better over the last 15-20 years?  Not really.  And without doing the math, I would bet the Bills have a better overall winning record than a good chunk of those teams during the drought.  Not very many teams have been true Super Bowl contenders over the last two decades.  What sets us apart is the drought, and the Patriots are a good reason why we can't get that extra 1-2 wins each season and push ourselves into a wild card spot.

 

 

 

And regarding the QBs: this is very true as far as being a true Super Bowl competitor goes. But no so much as far as just making the playoffs goes, or even winning a game or two in the playoffs. 

Dolphins QBs in those 4 playoff years:  Fiedler X 2, Pennington, Tannehill (regular season)/Moore (playoff game)

Jets QBs in their 6: Testaverde, Pennington X 3, Sanchez X 2

 

With the exception of Pennington (who was kind of the Kirk Cousins of the previous decade), these guys weren't even what would be considered "good" QBs.  Maybe "adequate" or "average" or "game managers" at best; "among the worst QBs ever to make the playoffs" at the worst.  (Testaverde was better, but he was 38 years old by the time he made it with the Jets.)  

 

So my conclusion: you've gotta be a special kind of inept to miss the playoffs 17 (umm, 18 barring a miracle) years running.  It just isn't that hard to be average and get a few lucky bounces and get in at least 25% of the time (Dolphins) even in a division with the longest-lasting period of excellence in Super Bowl-era NFL history. It's almost as if they're trying to do things wrong ...

 

[TallskiWallski83]

Id like to add:

- Moving the kickoff 5 yards forward has resulted in hardly any kickoff returns . People complain that now we don't see  any kick return touchdowns but the bigger problem is starting field position. It used to be that a team with great special teams or a great kick returner  would consistently gain better field position to start your drives. Why does this matter? A team with a below average QB is way less likely to score a touchdown on drives that require more first downs. Long scoring drives require consistent yardage gains and execution and a team with a poor QB  play relies more heavily on good starting field position to score touchdowns.  Teams like the Chiefs with Dante Hall and the Bears with Devin Hester used to thrive on field position and it led to successful drives for their below average QBS. 

 

The game has three phases: Offense, Defense, Special Teams.  Removing kickoffs reduced the role of special teams in the outcomes of games and tilted it more in favor of offense.

It sucks they got rid of kickoff returns. They are one of the most exciting plays in football and now they are shell of what they used to be.

Edited December 9, 2017 by TallskiWallski83

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Yes, the NFL is a quarterback driven league.  We haven't come close in that regard, including the opportunity to draft the likes of Russell Wilson and others.  Also, what truly impacts on the quarterback position is the offensive line.  We've neglected that as well.  The opportunities to improve both positions have been there; where have we been?  This season we can correct that, and we should.  Keep moving up in the draft, including rooting for KC to lose. 

[BringBackOrton]

Dolphins and Jets have both made the playoffs. 100% just the Bills.

[Dr. K]

I think the biggest factor is being in the same division as the Patriots. That means the Bills essentially start the season 0-2 and are always digging themselves out of a hole. 

 

This doesn't excuse them for seldom being able to beat the Patriots, but nobody in these 17 years beats the Patriots regularly. Lots of teams in other divisions have gotten into the playoffs who would not have had they been in the AFC East. 

 

No excuses—the team needs to be better. But the Bills (and Jets and Dolphins) have less margin for error than other teams. Just an observation. 

[freeagentqb]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

Brady and the Cheats have been huge in the drought.  Most seasons they have owned both games so to get in the Bills have had to win 10 of the remaining 14 which has been a tall order.

 

And the Pats have 2 probable wins over the Bills, Jets and Miami to start the season at 6 - 0.  Pats then need to go only 4 - 6 to probably be in playoffs.  

[cba fan]

43 minutes ago, bobm said:

 

And the Pats have 2 probable wins over the Bills, Jets and Miami to start the season at 6 - 0.  Pats then need to go only 4 - 6 to probably be in playoffs.  

Not true.

Starting in 2000 Fish/Jets/Bills have beaten Pats 12/11/5 times.

 

When Jets and Fish made playoffs(total of 10 times) they each beat the Pats at least once in those years except for one year Jets lost both.

 

To make playoffs Bills need to beat Pats at least once. Jets and Fish chances to make playoffs are twice as good as Bills as they beat the Pats at more than double the rate. 

Edited December 9, 2017 by cba fan

[BillsPride12]

Although not officially confirmed as the years go by I continue to be pretty confident there is some form of a curse on Buffalo Sports teams