Final Play--- drop or bad throw poll

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Ha ha, I remember you changing your stance on EJ with his last start. Tyrod has produced at an average level. That's true. He's the 17th rated QB now, has 49 TDs and 17 turnovers, a 16-15 record, led 2 top 10 scoring and DVOA offenses, has twice been top 10 in total QBR (and is again so far this year). That's not terrible. You need to take off the hater blockers and watch what's happening around the league.

 

He's one of the 3 or 4 best players on the offense. You can scream terrible or lump him with the bums but saying it doesn't mean it's true. His performance and the metrics used to judge success say he's average (or maybe even better). Personally I wouldn't have him above average but some do. There is a MUCH easier case that he is great than terrible. The previous paragraph lays that all out.

 

Here are 6 QBs since the start of 2015 and how they compare:

 

Tyrod - 16-15, 49 TDs, 17 turnovers, 247 yards a game

 

QB 1 - 21-12-1, 58 TDs, 25 turnovers, 279 yards a game

QB 2 - 10-12, 48 TDs, 31 turnovers, 303 yards a game

QB 3 - 13-15, 42 TDs, 34 turnovers, 269 yards a game

QB 4 - 24-9, 47 TDs, 19 turnovers, 250 yards a game

QB 5 - 16-14-1, 50 TDs, 25 turnovers, 264 yards a game

QB 6 - 17-17, 62 TDs, 40 turnovers, 264 yards a game

 

That list includes 6 Pro Bowlers, 4 Super Bowl wins, and 3 1st overall picks. Each of those guys carries a cap hit between $8M to $15M more than TT this year. It's impossible to classify him as terrible.

 

FWIW, the 6 QBs are Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton and Eli Manning.

Nice job Kirby. Everyone needs to read this with an open mind.

 

On top of those you've covered, There are 3 examples of teams with great QBs that are perennial contenders. The best of all 3 is a generational player that was a fluke 5th round pick. The other two were two of dozens of mid first rounders over the years. There are several others with alleged great QBs that fluctuate or are mired in the same mediocrity buffalo has been of late.

 

Taylor isn't great, he's not terrible either. He's good enough until they know they have something better.

[Gugny]

 

I'm a Mets fan too...sucks but I have vague memories of 1969 and GREAT memories of Seaver.

 

My reply was to your statement:

 

"I honestly don't care. I'm just glad we lost that pathetic game. One game closer to a better draft pick and getting rid of a crap QB. How's that for analysis?"

 

I do care, I suspect you do too. I get your point about the draft pick but:

 

Will you root for the Bills this Sunday at New Era?

 

Yes. I will root for them to win.

 

Just curious. The Seahawks only had 6 points in the first 53 mins. Did they "deserve" to win? The difference was, their guy caught the pass (it was not an easy catch) and our guy didn't.

 

My feelings about the Bills are solely about the Bills - and mostly because of the current state of the team. Once the QB situation changes, so will my attitude toward them.

 

I'll tell you who deserves to win - me, in my work survivor pool, where I took Seattle. That was way too close for comfort.

 

Same here. But I got Buffalo out of the way in Week 1!

The QB play is worse than ever. I agree that OL play is a major factor. Offenses in the NFL aren't evolving either. Things are cyclical. Rex's defense used to work. Now it is an abomination. The Wing t used to work too. Sports are always evolving. The NBA today looks NOTHING like 10 years ago.

 

The NFL could use an injection of creative young offensive minds (i.e. Jeff Brohm). Ernie Zampese wasn't exactly striking fear into opposing defenses. Let's stop trying to do the same thing that doesn't work and be on the cutting edge. The NFL won't do that though. It's a league full of followers. We have already seen the bubble start to burst. It was an unstoppable machine as recently as 3 years ago. It's in a dangerous place now.

 

I'm not an avid college football fan. But from what I understand, there are VERY few defenses that challenge the "good" college QBs .... and VERY few college QBs who work in "NFL-style" defenses. The level of talent between the best college teams and the worst NFL teams is still worlds apart.

 

Different thread for a different time, but the NFL needs a developmental league.

It's been the Crux of the biscuit throughout this whole drought. Losing close games we should win. I could probably come up with at least 10 off the top of my head.

 

Dallas 2008 at the Ralph

Pittsburgh

Sunday

Patsies** home opener 2013

A Jets road game where SJ dropped one late

Patsies** in the Leodis muff fest

Seahawks 2016 when we had 1st and goal for the win

Clowns at the Ralph on MNF (missed FG)

Jacksonville in London

At Oakland 2014

 

The difference between the Fish making playoffs last year and us was they won OT games vs us and Clowns. Meanwhile we lose to them with 10 men on field and lose to Hawks because we couldn't put it in and whatever we did vs Jets.

 

I was hoping Coach McDermott and his "culture" and "earning to win" stuff could turn this around, yet 2 games in here we are.

 

As former Bills HC Hank Bullock said "We keep beating ourselves, but we're getting better at it."

 

I like McDermott and Beane ... I hope they are here long enough to turn this around (2-3 years). I like "the process" so far.

Ha ha, I remember you changing your stance on EJ with his last start. Tyrod has produced at an average level. That's true. He's the 17th rated QB now, has 49 TDs and 17 turnovers, a 16-15 record, led 2 top 10 scoring and DVOA offenses, has twice been top 10 in total QBR (and is again so far this year). That's not terrible. You need to take off the hater blockers and watch what's happening around the league.

 

He's one of the 3 or 4 best players on the offense. You can scream terrible or lump him with the bums but saying it doesn't mean it's true. His performance and the metrics used to judge success say he's average (or maybe even better). Personally I wouldn't have him above average but some do. There is a MUCH easier case that he is great than terrible. The previous paragraph lays that all out.

 

Here are 6 QBs since the start of 2015 and how they compare:

 

Tyrod - 16-15, 49 TDs, 17 turnovers, 247 yards a game

 

QB 1 - 21-12-1, 58 TDs, 25 turnovers, 279 yards a game

QB 2 - 10-12, 48 TDs, 31 turnovers, 303 yards a game

QB 3 - 13-15, 42 TDs, 34 turnovers, 269 yards a game

QB 4 - 24-9, 47 TDs, 19 turnovers, 250 yards a game

QB 5 - 16-14-1, 50 TDs, 25 turnovers, 264 yards a game

QB 6 - 17-17, 62 TDs, 40 turnovers, 264 yards a game

 

That list includes 6 Pro Bowlers, 4 Super Bowl wins, and 3 1st overall picks. Each of those guys carries a cap hit between $8M to $15M more than TT this year. It's impossible to classify him as terrible.

 

FWIW, the 6 QBs are Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton and Eli Manning.

 

This is a lot of info and I appreciate you taking the time to put it together. If there's one thing I've learned over the past couple years is that Tyrod - by chance, not purposely - has found a way to manipulate the stats better than anyone in the history of the game.

 

I am guilty of using hyperbole. I know this. So let me say, now, that I don't think Tyrod is really "horrible," per se. He has shown that he can do all of the "big boy QB things," well, at one time or another. But the only thing he can do well consistently is run. (my opinion) And QBs whose major strength is running, rarely play for teams that win a lot of games. That's my major knock on him. Period.

 

Back to stats. I know Tyrod protects the ball and he has a nice deep ball (when there's no defenders around). But my problems with these statistics (for all QBs - not just Tyrod), the don't account for: WHEN or AGAINST WHOM.

 

Other than the TEN game two years ago, I can't think of a time where I sat back after a Bills game and said, "man, Taylor was clutch today." (and he only needed to be clutch that day because he was rancid for the first 59 minutes of the game - sound familiar? (CAR)).

 

The teams with the QB who has the prettiest stats don't go to the post season, necessarily. If he could achieve some of those stats during times of need, we'd be having a different discussion.

[Kirby Jackson]

Nice job Kirby. Everyone needs to read this with an open mind.

 

On top of those you've covered, There are 3 examples of teams with great QBs that are perennial contenders. The best of all 3 is a generational player that was a fluke 5th round pick. The other two were two of dozens of mid first rounders over the years. There are several others with alleged great QBs that fluctuate or are mired in the same mediocrity buffalo has been of late.

 

Taylor isn't great, he's not terrible either. He's good enough until they know they have something better.

Thanks!! I was going to keep going on it but it took me like 30 minutes to do the 6. I wanted to look at some great young QBs but that had experience. Every guy on that list has more career starts than TT. So he had some growing to do; he's not perfect but he's decent. It's important to add perspective though. The only way to do that is to look at some "good" QBs.

[ROONDOGG55]

Bad route. He flattened out the corner route which slightly put him out of position. he did make an excellent adjustment to the ball, but unfortunately could not hang on.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Yes. I will root for them to win.

 

 

My feelings about the Bills are solely about the Bills - and mostly because of the current state of the team. Once the QB situation changes, so will my attitude toward them.

 

 

Same here. But I got Buffalo out of the way in Week 1!

 

 

I'm not an avid college football fan. But from what I understand, there are VERY few defenses that challenge the "good" college QBs .... and VERY few college QBs who work in "NFL-style" defenses. The level of talent between the best college teams and the worst NFL teams is still worlds apart.

 

Different thread for a different time, but the NFL needs a developmental league.

 

 

I like McDermott and Beane ... I hope they are here long enough to turn this around (2-3 years). I like "the process" so far.

 

 

This is a lot of info and I appreciate you taking the time to put it together. If there's one thing I've learned over the past couple years is that Tyrod - by chance, not purposely - has found a way to manipulate the stats better than anyone in the history of the game.

 

I am guilty of using hyperbole. I know this. So let me say, now, that I don't think Tyrod is really "horrible," per se. He has shown that he can do all of the "big boy QB things," well, at one time or another. But the only thing he can do well consistently is run. (my opinion) And QBs whose major strength is running, rarely play for teams that win a lot of games. That's my major knock on him. Period.

 

Back to stats. I know Tyrod protects the ball and he has a nice deep ball (when there's no defenders around). But my problems with these statistics (for all QBs - not just Tyrod), the don't account for: WHEN or AGAINST WHOM.

 

Other than the TEN game two years ago, I can't think of a time where I sat back after a Bills game and said, "man, Taylor was clutch today." (and he only needed to be clutch that day because he was rancid for the first 59 minutes of the game - sound familiar? (CAR)).

 

The teams with the QB who has the prettiest stats don't go to the post season, necessarily. If he could achieve some of those stats during times of need, we'd be having a different discussion.

We are in agreement with a lot here. The college QB, developmental league is where I was going with that. Those offenses move the ball at will yet the NFL offenses are just stuck. The defenses have improved and the pendulum has swung that way. It's time for NFL offenses to try something different.

 

In terms of the last part he did struggle for a while but in 2 of the last 3 starts he led what should have been game winning drives at the buzzer. If anything, we've seen massive improvement in that area. I'm not banging the table as the long-term starter (but not shutting the door).

 

I end up defending Taylor so much on here not because I think he's great but because I think he's pretty good. It is so much harder to find pretty good than it is to find terrible. It's always more of a "careful what you wish for" type of thing. As an example what if we kick Tyrod to the curb and end up with the next Bortles, Weeden, Manziel, etc? That would be a nightmare!! I like this class quite a bit so I think that this is the time to pull the trigger.

[ExiledInIllinois]

You know... He's wearing the infamous #11.*

 

If he was a Sabre, that would have been a goal!

 

;-)

 

*Yes, I'm superstitious.

 

:-)

[Gugny]

We are in agreement with a lot here. The college QB, developmental league is where I was going with that. Those offenses move the ball at will yet the NFL offenses are just stuck. The defenses have improved and the pendulum has swung that way. It's time for NFL offenses to try something different.

 

In terms of the last part he did struggle for a while but in 2 of the last 3 starts he led what should have been game winning drives at the buzzer. If anything, we've seen massive improvement in that area. I'm not banging the table as the long-term starter (but not shutting the door).

 

I end up defending Taylor so much on here not because I think he's great but because I think he's pretty good. It is so much harder to find pretty good than it is to find terrible. It's always more of a "careful what you wish for" type of thing. As an example what if we kick Tyrod to the curb and end up with the next Bortles, Weeden, Manziel, etc? That would be a nightmare!! I like this class quite a bit so I think that this is the time to pull the trigger.

 

Nice to have a civilized conversation/debate - for that, I thank you.

 

I don't expect to find another Rodgers, Brees, Brady or Ryan. Building a top 5 D and a top 5 O line makes it a lot easier to "find a QB," these days. And I think, with those two things, that Tyrod could be good enough to be the QB and have the team win double digit games.

 

I'd just like someone a little closer to the upper tier of QBs than where Tyrod is. I love the mobility. Who wouldn't? And if he was 5 years younger, I'd say that - maybe - he could improve his decision-making skills - which I believe is his biggest weakness. I just think that, in his 7th season, his development days are behind him.

 

I'd rather have someone a little less mobile with a better ability to step up into the pocket and quickly find an open receiver - then be able to consistently deliver catchable passes.

 

I don't think "that QB" is terribly tough to find.

 

Regardless, as well as I think the O line has been during Tyrod's tenure, I think they need to address that equally as much as they need to address the QB problem.

 

Lastly, I do believe in Beane as a GM and McDermott as a coach. I'm hoping that the Pegulas allow them to go through their "process," even if it hurts a little in the beginning. The lack of continuity in the front office and the coaching staff certainly hasn't done the Bills any favors.

[r00tabaga]

The poll shows a lot of Tyrod anti-fan hate and not honesty.

It's what I expected.

[jrober38]

Donald Jones broke the play down on Monday. It was entirely Zay Jones' fault.

 

He was supposed to read the safety and push vertically up the field, that way if the safety breaks on the ball, he can shield him with his back and give the QB and alley to throw the ball into between him and the sideline. It's easier to round the route off after the ball is in the air, rather than readjust up the field after the throw.

 

Jones said it was a rookie mistake by a rookie receiver, but in no way did he think any blame should be put on Taylor. He threw the ball exactly where it needed to be if Jones ran a proper route and it would have been an easy TD.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Nice to have a civilized conversation/debate - for that, I thank you.

 

I don't expect to find another Rodgers, Brees, Brady or Ryan. Building a top 5 D and a top 5 O line makes it a lot easier to "find a QB," these days. And I think, with those two things, that Tyrod could be good enough to be the QB and have the team win double digit games.

 

I'd just like someone a little closer to the upper tier of QBs than where Tyrod is. I love the mobility. Who wouldn't? And if he was 5 years younger, I'd say that - maybe - he could improve his decision-making skills - which I believe is his biggest weakness. I just think that, in his 7th season, his development days are behind him.

 

I'd rather have someone a little less mobile with a better ability to step up into the pocket and quickly find an open receiver - then be able to consistently deliver catchable passes.

 

I don't think "that QB" is terribly tough to find.

 

Regardless, as well as I think the O line has been during Tyrod's tenure, I think they need to address that equally as much as they need to address the QB problem.

 

Lastly, I do believe in Beane as a GM and McDermott as a coach. I'm hoping that the Pegulas allow them to go through their "process," even if it hurts a little in the beginning. The lack of continuity in the front office and the coaching staff certainly hasn't done the Bills any favors.

The tricky thing is you need to find that QB at that price. Tyrod is a steal now (and would have been even without the restructure). If he goes to FA he is pushing $20M a year. That is the problem that teams like the Saints and Ravens have. The best gig ever is a productive QB on a rookie deal. Teams are so scared to fail at QB they invest heavily in guys like Dalton, Smith, Flacco, and Tannehill and then what? That's why the approach with Tyrod and Kirk Cousins has been interesting. Over the last 2 years those guys have been as good (or better) than the aforementioned QBs. The difference is their teams didn't make the long-term commitment to them. It's the responsible thing to do but it is a change in the groupthink philosophy of the NFL. They are the first "middle-class" QBs in the league. It's an area where I think we will eventually see More guys. Solid starters that you can win with but don't win because is how I think of them. They won't get the same contracts as the Brees' and Rodgers' of the world. They will see things like 2 years $30M guaranteed instead of 7 years $125M and $60M guaranteed.

[Ramza86]

Based on what I saw..its say like 75/25 Tyrods to blame.

 

I mean...Zay ran the route the way it was intended.. towards the pylon. Thats where the ball should have been thrown. That alone put Tyrod mostly at fault. I understand he wanted to throw it in the open space between the safety and the db...I dont expect Zay to recognize whats happening to Tyrod and then curl in the open spot while hes running full speed to get to the endzone on a 4th down.

 

Ideally if you are Zay the earlier you get your head turned the better you get to see whats going on with the throw and react better....

 

Anytime the receiver has to torque his body to the other side its a very tough catch. I thought just the fact that he was able to get hands on the ball was impressive enough.

 

But if you wanna be the guy...you want to catch that ball.

[Magox]

The tricky thing is you need to find that QB at that price. Tyrod is a steal now (and would have been even without the restructure). If he goes to FA he is pushing $20M a year. That is the problem that teams like the Saints and Ravens have. The best gig ever is a productive QB on a rookie deal. Teams are so scared to fail at QB they invest heavily in guys like Dalton, Smith, Flacco, and Tannehill and then what? That's why the approach with Tyrod and Kirk Cousins has been interesting. Over the last 2 years those guys have been as good (or better) than the aforementioned QBs. The difference is their teams didn't make the long-term commitment to them. It's the responsible thing to do but it is a change in the groupthink philosophy of the NFL. They are the first "middle-class" QBs in the league. It's an area where I think we will eventually see More guys. Solid starters that you can win with but don't win because is how I think of them. They won't get the same contracts as the Brees' and Rodgers' of the world. They will see things like 2 years $30M guaranteed instead of 7 years $125M and $60M guaranteed.

 

If TT were to hit the open market now, I think there is a more than 50/50 chance that he wouldn't get anywhere near $20 M a year on the open market. Of course as we all know, it only takes one team to make the offer but I don't see it.

[jrober38]

Based on what I saw..its say like 75/25 Tyrods to blame.

 

I mean...Zay ran the route the way it was intended.. towards the pylon. Thats where the ball should have been thrown. That alone put Tyrod mostly at fault. I understand he wanted to throw it in the open space between the safety and the db...I dont expect Zay to recognize whats happening to Tyrod and then curl in the open spot while hes running full speed to get to the endzone on a 4th down.

 

Ideally if you are Zay the earlier you get your head turned the better you get to see whats going on with the throw and react better....

 

Anytime the receiver has to torque his body to the other side its a very tough catch. I thought just the fact that he was able to get hands on the ball was impressive enough.

 

But if you wanna be the guy...you want to catch that ball.

 

He did not run the route as it was intended.

 

Donald Jones, a former NFL receiver spent a lot of time on Monday breaking down what the receiver is supposed to do, and Zay did it all wrong.

 

Taylor threw the ball exactly where he was supposed to, given the location of the safety.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

If TT were to hit the open market now, I think there is a more than 50/50 chance that he wouldn't get anywhere near $20 M a year on the open market. Of course as we all know, it only takes one team to make the offer but I don't see it.

Mike Glennon got $15M and Osweiler $18m the year before. If you don't think that Tyrod is pushing $20M you aren't paying attention to the landscape of the league. I did the QB comparison in the other thread but we can stack Tyrod, Glennon and Osweiler side-by-side and would be happy to hear the argument as to why those guys got more? Worse records, less scores, more turnovers, less yards and less playmaking ability. You think that the guy that is best in all of that will get less than they did? Not happening

 

The Jags, Cardinals, Jets, 49ers, Bills, Browns, Redskins, are all possibilities off the top of my head.

Edited September 20, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[Webster Guy]

donald jones said because the safety on that side stayed in the middle of the field, the receivers job is to "go high" on that route, meaning continue the route into the end zone.

 

No need to cut it short or turn to the outside. Zay's mistake all day according to DJ on the Murph show. Tyrod froze the safety and put the ball where he should have. So its not a question of a bad throw or a missed catch, it was neither: just a route miscalc by a rookie.

 

I wished we had won at the time, but now that its over and I see that this offense cant win a championship, i will take the L and the higher draft spot.

[ALF]

If they had kept Kromer , followed Lynn's scheme and kept Sammy it would be hard not to make the playoffs with this D.

 

After seeing McCoy only gain 9 yds it sure looks like a tank to me , just not by the players the scheme doesn't fit.

 

If they end up drafting a franchise QB it will be worth having a bad season.

[jrober38]

donald jones said because the safety on that side stayed in the middle of the field, the receivers job is to "go high" on that route, meaning continue the route into the end zone.

 

No need to cut it short or turn to the outside. Zay's mistake all day according to DJ on the Murph show. Tyrod froze the safety and put the ball where he should have. So its not a question of a bad throw or a missed catch, it was neither: just a route miscalc by a rookie.

 

I wished we had won at the time, but now that its over and I see that this offense cant win a championship, i will take the L and the higher draft spot.

 

My thoughts exactly.

The game ultimately meant nothing. It was a great performance by our defense and a learning experience for our rookie WR.

 

Getting the win in my eyes is less important than giving ourselves the best shot possible at a top QB next draft.

[HappyDays]

Mike Glennon got $15M and Osweiler $18m the year before. If you don't think that Tyrod is pushing $20M you aren't paying attention to the landscape of the league. I did the QB comparison in the other thread but we can stack Tyrod, Glennon and Osweiler side-by-side and would be happy to hear the argument as to why those guys got more? Worse records, less scores, more turnovers, less yards and less playmaking ability. You think that the guy that is best in all of that will get less than they did? Not happening

 

The Jags, Cardinals, Jets, 49ers, Bills, Browns, Redskins, are all possibilities off the top of my head.

The wildcard you're forgetting is that NFL executives are awful at their jobs. I think many GMs still honestly believe height and arm strength are the two most important qualities in a QB. They think you can teach all that other stuff later. It basically never works but that's how they think about it. I think Glennon got more money than Tyrod would have. Tyrod basically confirmed this himself:

 

http://buffalonews.com/2017/09/06/tyrod-bills-cutting-pay-get-deal-first-place/

 

(Well because of the new BN Blitz subscription I can't actually pull this article up anymore. But I read it a few weeks ago and he basically acknowledges that he took a pay cut and he shows frustration with it.)

 

Yes it is insane that NFL front offices valued Glennon more than Tyrod in this offseason. But they do insane things like trading up for kickers in the 2nd round so is it really so unbelievable?

[Kirby Jackson]

The wildcard you're forgetting is that NFL executives are awful at their jobs. I think many GMs still honestly believe height and arm strength are the two most important qualities in a QB. They think you can teach all that other stuff later. It basically never works but that's how they think about it. I think Glennon got more money than Tyrod would have. Tyrod basically confirmed this himself:

 

http://buffalonews.com/2017/09/06/tyrod-bills-cutting-pay-get-deal-first-place/

 

(Well because of the new BN Blitz subscription I can't actually pull this article up anymore. But I read it a few weeks ago and he basically acknowledges that he took a pay cut and he shows frustration with it.)

 

Yes it is insane that NFL front offices valued Glennon more than Tyrod in this offseason. But they do insane things like trading up for kickers in the 2nd round so is it really so unbelievable?

That's all true but Tyrod didn't want to go anywhere. There are 2 posters here that know him wel and both confirmed that. Obviously he didn't want to take a pay cut but had no intention of leaving unless forced to.

 

On a side note Aguayo?!? Worst pick ever probably

Edited September 20, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[JESSEFEFFER]

That was TD ball placement combined with a 1st and goal from the 3 route. I am guessing as to the intent but:

 

0% on the throw. That was perfect for the TD.

 

5% on the catch. A spinning, off-balance, fingertip, circus catch is far from "drop."

 

95% on the route. Headed for the sideline and looking over the right shoulder and then spinning while stumbling vs. looking over the left shoulder while headed toward the EZ/pylon. Hmmm, which to choose.

Edited September 20, 2017 by JESSEFEFFER